Hunter Greene pitched well on Tuesday night, reaching the 7th inning and giving up just two runs. That, however, wasn’t enough as Pablo Lopez and the Marlins bullpen held Cincinnati to just two hits and one run on the night as they evened up the 4-game series at one game a piece.
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins (46-51) |
2 | 11 | 0 |
| Cincinnati Reds (37-59) |
1 | 2 | 0 |
| W: Lopez (7-5) L: Greene (3-12) SV: Scott (13) |
|||
| Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
The Offense
The Cincinnati Reds managed just one hit through the first four innings of the game. After the Marlins grabbed a 2-0 lead in the top of the 5th inning it was Mike Moustakas who got one of those runs back as he clubbed a solo homer into the right-center stands. That would be the final time that the Reds reached base in the game.
The Pitching
After a quiet 1st inning, the Marlins put some pressure on Hunter Greene in the 2nd when Avisail Garcia singled to lead off the inning and an out later Bryan De La Cruz singled, too. A wild pitch moved them both up a base to put them on 2nd and 3rd with one out, but Greene worked out of the jam with a strikeout and a ground out to strand them.
Three innings later the Marlins threatened again. Jesus Sanchez doubled with one out and Luke Williams followed with a single to put men on the corners. Williams would then steal second before Joey Wendle singled in both runners to put Miami up 2-0. Another single followed, but Greene got a lazy fly out to end the inning.
Greene got through the 6th inning while working around a walk. In the 7th inning he was able to record the first out of the inning on a fly ball to center, but then gave up back-to-back singles before being pulled from the game with the Reds trailing 2-1. Buck Farmer entered the game and proceeded to get two pop ups on the infield to strand the runners and hold the score. In the top of the 8th he got himself into a 2-on situation, but like the inning prior he was able to get out of it and hold the score at 2-1. Ian Gibaut fired a shutout 9th to give the offense another shot at tying things up with just one run, but they couldn’t get it done.
Notes Worth Noting
Hunter Greene threw 38 pitches at least 100 MPH in the game. That’s the second most ever, tying his own spot on the list. He also has the #1 spot on the list.
Up Next for the Cincinnati Reds
Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds
Wednesday July 27th, 6:40pm ET
Braxton Garrett (2-3, 3.42 ERA) vs Luis Castillo (3-4, 2.77 ERA)
Disappointing loss especially after scoring 11 runs last night! Quality start by Hunter Greene and excellent job by the bullpen! I’m always perplexed by the lack of offense following a game when the offense scores 10+ runs. Guess that’s baseball. Let’s win tomorrow and win the series! May be last start by Luis Castillo in a Reds uniform! Sad to think about that!
The Marlins’ pitcher had something to do with the lack of offense.
Close. No cigar.
Worth noting that this would readily have been a 5-1 or 6-1 loss under ordinary bullpen circumstances.
No small consolation in that.
A music link to one of my favorite Denton, Texas bands: Little Jack Melody and His Young Turks.
Heavy sigh …
Red did not have much of a chance against Lopez tonight. Props to him, he was outstanding and just better than the hitters the Reds put out there tonight. I am actually surprised to see Castillo pitching again for the Reds. I thought his last start would be his last one.
I hate to say it, Moon, but Lopez was “Castillo-like” tonight.
I remain befuddled by the weird Cincinnati logics of the inevitability of trading away your best pitcher in some time….not losing him to FA…but trading away for “prospects” due to the perceived economics of a bumbling ownership.
And also by the hyperventilating around the “trade deadline!”
No disrespect to Greene or Ashcraft, but Lodolo is the only one showing a hint of the special LC type savvy and promise.
That was evident as soon as the Straily deal was made.
Hang on to Louie Castle for another year and then trade him….
Literally everyone in baseball knows Castillo will be traded. Because it the only logical thing to do. He has a ton of value and that value will decrease every day after the trade deadline. The Reds aren’t contenders next year anyway, so losing all his trade value for another wasted year of service doesn’t make any sense at all. Unless you think they can pay him his market value at the end of next year. But that would hamstring the rest of the roster and we’d be in the same situation we are now, with too much salary tied up in a couple players. Trading him is the only logical thing to do.
It isn’t Cincinnati logic, it is anyone in MLB with no chance of making the playoffs logic, for players you have no intention of being the highest bidder for during free agency. Holding onto Frazier, Chapman, Cueto, Bruce, and others during 2014 was how the Reds got into their current situation. Hanging onto Castillo so they can win ten more games and still finish below .500 in 2023 just continues the never ending rebuild cycle.
At least with a few prospects you have the chance of getting some minimum salary contributors when the Reds are free from the Moose and Votto contracts.
Hot hitters Solano & Reynolds nowhere to be found tonight. Also, Fairchild with an .885 ops in 10 at bats with Reds in July nowhere to be found. Marlins pitching is good but we are still showcasing guys for the trade deadline instead of playing guys who might be helpful in 2023 (sigh).
Great game by Hunter and good bullpen performance by Buck & Gibault.
Hunter was as good as he’s been all year. The Reds simply had no offense. The Marlins starter was tremendous. Would like to see Fairchild and Aquino back in the lineup. Aquino is tearing it up in AAA.
Fairchild is batting .095 on the season. Few games, limited at bats, but .095 BA.
At AAA this season, Fairchild had a .936 OPS (164PA) which works out to a wRC+ of 135. Since he came up to the Reds on 10 July, in 13PAs he has in fact compiled a .885 OPS which works out to a 147 wRC+. Yet for whatever reason, Bell doesn’t seem to want to use him.
My best guess is they are playing the struggling Pham and Reynolds because they hope to get their salaries off the books via trades in the coming days.
He was 0-11 when he came to the Reds. That .096 is deceiving.
He is a fringe 5th OF prospect at best. Maybe career AAA player at worst.
He’s been on three or four teams already. His Reds BA is .200 now.
Exactly what I was going to say. He is just another Mark Payton type.
You are exactly right, Oldtimer. I have coached baseball for nearly 40 years and can tell you that he cannot, and will not, hit successfully at the major league level. Watch his footwork in the box, especially his back foot. Every time he swings he steps in the bucket with his back foot. Watch where other teams are pitching him…outer third of the plate. Why? Because he cannot cover it, and on the rare occasions he does makes contact it will be hit very weakly.
In the ~3 weeks after Aquino was recalled until he was injured his MLB OPS was .798 and his wRC+ 115. That’s not shabby either.
In his current AAA rehab stint, prior to Tuesday night, his OPS was 1.037 and wRC+ 169. He had a home run and a single in 5PAs Tuesday, so those will both go up when the numbers post overnight.
I saw the last 2 innings or so of Tuesday’s game on MiLBTV. AA was playing CF and made two long runs into the right center gap to easily catch fly balls on the warning track. To my eye he is not as smooth as Almora; but, he is a much better defender in CF than Senzel without even taking into consideration his superior arm.
Yep, we need him back up.
It just doesn’t seem like a pitching duel when you are out hit 11-2.
Right
Don’t know if I agree.
Only two of those eleven came around to score.
It’s the runs that count, not the hits.
Reds scored runs on 50% of their hits. 😉
Greene and bullpen did a fine job.
Lopez did a better one, unfortunately.
A pitcher’s job is to keep the other team from scoring. 2-1 is a pitcher’s duel no matter how you slice it.
Imagine a pitcher gives up 3 singles every single inning for the whole year, but never gives up a single run. Let’s say he pitches 100 innings. That’s 300 hits in 100 innings, but zero runs. I know that is extreme, but the reality is, that pitcher wins the Cy Young and is unquestionably elite.
The mindset that a pitcher/team gives up 11 hits but only 2 runs and it isn’t a pitcher’s duel is a modern one where people just care about deeper dives into the analytics instead of what really matters–runs. It’s not seeing the forest for the trees. Greene may have had to battle out of jams more, but that doesn’t mean it still wasn’t a pitcher’s duel.
I loved Barry Larkin as a player, but man oh man, I hope he never lands a decision making role with the Reds.
https://news.yahoo.com/barry-larkin-says-sign-kyle-051245228.html
Nothing wrong with drinking as long as you’re not driving.
AmIright?
yikes!
He wants to sign a guy long term who is almost 32 years old, and who is a career 0.250 hitter with a paltry 84 OPS+ ?
And to top that off, he makes that comment while the hitter is going thru an awful batting slump (0.190 over his last 25 games).
Well, Farmer was a 0.390 hitter for a 1-month span from mid-May thru mid-June. But outside of that he’s a 0.150 hitter this season.
Similar to last season, when he hit 0.386 for a month, but was a 0.230 hitter over the rest of the season.
It’s nice having him for the one month he can hit, but he is an offensive liability for the other 80% of the season.
Farmer had a hot June and cold July (.155 with an OPS .538) with usual baseball card stats in April and May despite his 0-32 skid.
What has defined Farmer in 2022 is the profound handedness splits. He doesn’t hit righties and has a total power outage against righties all year.
Against lefties: .345/.423/.619/1.042. ISO .274 wRC+ 184
Against righties: .218/ .288/ .286/.575 ISO .068 wRC+ 60
Farmer is worse than Jose Peraza against right handed pitching.
The larger issue is what to do with Farmer. HE is 32 and making over $3million. He will be arb eligible for over $5 million next year. I dont see the Reds trading him this year but the Reds also dont pick up options or keep players making over $5 mil of late – Hamilton,Peraza, Barnhart,Iglesias, Bradley, Miley, Gray,Suarez.
He certainly would be a valuable utility player and righty bat against lefties in 2023 so maybe they work something out in the off-season once they have clarity on Barrero’s wrist/health and performance as it does appear there is huge momentum to keep him in a reds uniform. It just has to be in the appropriate role.
AGREED
The scary part is how many want him as the manager
I watched the Dodger game on Monday night. They interviewed the GM and asked him about Juan Soto. His reply was (paraphrased) “Whenever a Star-level player is available we owe it to our fans to be a part of the conversation”. Reds fans deserve better than this.
I’m not specifically defending the Reds ownership, but that’s not really a fair comparison. If a Lamborghini hits the market and your family needs a car, do you owe it to your family to be in the conversation to buy it? Probably not, because you don’t have the money for such a luxury. We don’t have to like it, but Cincinnati is not L.A., and those two teams are swimming in different ends of the financial pool.
Again, not defending Reds ownership, but just generally pointing out that a team in Cincinnati would be financially crushed for decades if they signed Soto.
I believe that is by choice. Let’s be honest, if Reds went after top end players fans would come. I don’t buy or believe the whole small market team. Just like Krall saying we are freeing up money, or what ever he said. No, you got rid of players cause Reds are cheap.
Kevin, you can disbelieve the limitations of small market franchises all you want. It doesn’t change the reality of it. It doesn’t matter what you think, the revenue of teams in smaller markets has 0% chance to be on par with large markets like LA and NY. Basic economics.
Also, to respond to your “fans will come” comment. Sure they will. The question is, how many fans will come? Cincinnati has a whole lot smaller a fan pool to come than if they come to LA. I’m not disputing big signings might have some level of impact on fan generated revenue. What I’m saying is there is no way it competes with what can be generated in other markets. And since Soto will get the market value of his services, Cincinnati is necessarily priced out of that market. Plain and simple.
To reinforce Luke’s point consider this … even if the Reds were to double their attendance (which would be higher average attendance than during the BRM era), generating $50 in revenue (Note: per Forbes, avg. ticket price is $24) for each additional fan over a full season, they would still be $200M/year behind the Dodgers in annual revenue.
I think if Castillo has not been traded at this point it is because the offers in return from the interested teams are related to prospects like Finnegan, Reed, Lamb or Rookie Davis
Ouch.
A roll call of mediocrity over-hyped as “prospects”.
I wouldn’t expect much more, though, particularly if trade talks are with the Yankees.
That’s the axis mundi of over-hype, over-valuation and other types of MLB gas.
NY has no ‘sure thing’ prospect of the kind of team-changing value that Castillo should bring. And the fact that he’s on a very team friendly contract right now.
The Cueto deal should have taught the lesson that THREE mediocre “prospects” really aren’t any better than ONE mediocre pitcher.
The Chapman, Barnhart and Garrett trades should teach the lesson not to trade in a rush.
I doubt the Reds learned from either lesson.
I’ve got a really bad feeling about all this, particularly if a trade winds up with NYY.
Krall clearly outmatched.
Hunter Greene has given up 1 run in four games pitched. 0-1 with 3 no decisions. Then last night 2 runs and a loss.
Interesting…
If we’re going to trade with the Yankees ask for their numbers 2 4 5 6. Let’s not get the low end of the bargain again.
I’d be stunned if the reds pitch Castillo tonight. Reports are surfacing that there is talks ongoing with the Yankees and a few others. What is there to prove by pitching him today. His value is at its highest right now. Pitching him tonight and risking injury would be foolish. The season has been over for the reds since the 2-23 start. If the intent is to trade him don’t mess it up by risking injury in a meaningless game.
Heavy rain the next few hours with more forecasted later this evening. WIll be interesting to see how the forecast goes through the day for a 640 start.
Since the positive opening series at the championship Braves followed by 21 straight losses, it’s been play out the schedule. I’m hopeful for positive changes in the offseason especially regarding principal ownership and the front office.
I agree, with the Reds luck if he pitches he will be injured. Of course if he doesn’t pitch teams might think he’s injured.
More rumors….
https://www.yahoo.com/news/york-yankees-top-prospects-may-055207565.html
What the Yankees are offering is a joke.
A #37 prospect from a perennial strong performing team?
If I were Krall and Volpe was off the table, I’d take Castillo off the table and offer Minor.
But I wouldn’t want Volpe anyway. Not at the quality level that a player of Castillo’s level should bring.
What is the point of trading for another shortstop, anyway?
Mindlessness.
Very depressing rumors.
JohnnyTV
I agree. I want nothing to do with Yankee prospects period. If they offered Joe DiMaggio I would probably pass, just because it’s the Yankees.
Don’t trade with the Yankee’s, we won the Gray trade, but were scorched badly in both the Chapman and O’Neill trades. we should trade Castillo to the blue jays for their top-rated catching prospect and a couple of prospects in the top 150, Toronto has two excellent catchers on their mlb roster. Make that trade.
no to all yankee offers, We won the Gray trade, but wwere
@Larry, in reality, the Reds scorched themselves in the Chapman trade–they held onto him at the trade deadline when they had little chance of competing and then put him on fire sale when he had his domestic issue.
Agree with BK the Chapman example is not a good comparison. The Reds incompetence of trading him with a pending Domestic violence case was why that trade was so horrible.
Hunter Green will be just fine. Even HOF and All Star Pitchers struggle in their first couple of years. Just take a deep breath everyone – Not every Hyped SP is like José Fernández
Greg Maddux – 21y in 1987; 5.62 ERA, 76 ERA+
Randy Johnson – 25y in 1989; 4.82 ERA, 82 ERA+, 1.5 WHIP
Tom Glavine – 22y in 1988; 4.56 ERA, 80 ERA+, 1.32 WHIP
CC Sabathia – 21y in 2002; 4.37 ERA, 100 ERA+, 1.36 WHIP
Cliff Lee – 25y in 2004; 5.43 ERA, 80 ERA+, 1.52 WHIP
David Price – 23y in 2009; 4.42 ERA, 98 ERA+, 1.34 WHIP
Dallas Keuchel – 25 in 2013; 515 ERA, 78 ERA+, 1.53 WHIP
Hunter Green – 22y in 2022; 5.59 ERA, 82 ERA+, 1.366 WHIP
I hear you…and I’m breathing deeply, more concerned with Krall botching a Castillo trade than in Hunter Greene.
He looked pretty good last night, against a weaker team who hadn’t seen him before.
We’ve seen numerous lists here of comps between Greene and other top quality pitchers who got off to equally rocky starts.
The “but” that remains, however, goes beyond mere stats.
What was behind the rough early years for that list? Probably differs from pitcher to pitcher.
It’s been apparent that good hitting teams have been hammering Greene on the second or third time through the lineup and that he needs another pitch or two to help keep folks honest and off balance.
How many folks from that list were solely 4 seam fastball / slider pitchers?
If they were, what did they do to adjust and accommodate?
Not meaning to be a Cassandra but there’s another list of promising Reds starters that didn’t develop a full arsenal of pitchers and wound up in the bullpen or floundering.
Lodolo and Ashcraft have got that multi pitch mix going already.
I’ll feel a whole lot better about Hunter Greene in ST 2023 if he’s developed his repetoire futher.
Otherwise, I fear it’s the bullpen for him.
Meanwhile, he’s a very engaging young pitcher to watch.
I see Passan is claiming that the Reds are looking to bundle Moose & Mahle. And that’s why you can’t trust this front office. Everything is a payroll dump. Trade Votto to Toronto for cash considerations or a PTBNL. But whatever they do, they could start by admitting that it’s a full teardown and years before contention.
Just read the article … that’s not exactly what he said. To summarize, one baseball executive told him the Red’s front office doesn’t want to dilute the prospect return for either Castillo or Mahle. Another exec speculated the deadline frenzy for starting pitcher could be the best chance for the Reds to unload Moose’s contract and it would prove too tempting. The second exec was speculating.
We all know Moose’s contract has significant negative value. Heck, even if playing for the Major League minimum, his performance offers really no value. The Castellini’s took a beating for the payroll cuts in the offseason and another one after Phil proved he should never be allowed to publicly represent the club again. If they dilute the trade value of either Castillo or Mahle with a bad contract, they will simply reignite all of the blowback again. I’m guessing they understand that and want no part of it.
BK, your post makes far too much sense for me to feel confident about the Reds having enough sense to mind it.
It may be true that the “trade rumor” blog / blah-blahsters are speculating about things as much as folks are here…with the same degree of…speculation.
I agree…attaching Mahle to a Moose Dump would be an appalling breach of trust. Trust that the front office really intends to provide quality baseball in Cincinnati.
Moose is a bigger albatross than Suarez by a considerable margin and my hunch is they tried to unload him last winter, too.
If the plan is to unload Moose’s salary so they can sign Castillo..go for it.
But there is no indication that that is on anyone’s mind.
But there’s no indication that there is anything on anyone’s mind in the Reds front office other than the bottom line.
And even that is chaotically managed.
I have much more confidence in a GM like Rizzo who states they won’t dilute the trade returns by attaching a bad contract than I do a front office that has shown that short term profits are all that matters. Success? Not so much.
Does Lopez influence Castillo trade value? Read this morning that Marlins say Lopez is available on trade market. Might some interested in Castillo be willing to take a lesser product for significantly less return.
Lopez extra year of control gives him a boost to where they look like almost equal pitchers from a valuation perspective. Castillo has a better track record of performance, making his starts, and his stuff is better. A team looking to get to the playoffs, may prefer Lopez due to the extra year of control. A team looking to push deep into the playoffs probably prefers Castillo. At the deadline, that should give Castillo and edge, whereas in the offseason Lopez likely would be more attractive.
Twins chatter on Mahle.
Twins have nothing of interest in the Top 100 (only Lewis), but there are a lot of 18 to 21 year olds both everyday and pitching. If the Reds could get 3 to 4 of the high upside guys, it might be a good trade.
I think several of their guys will end up in the Top 100 in the next 12 months. Get 3 or 4 of them.
Check out Matt Wallner. Lots to like about a slugging OF who had a 1.000 OPS at Southern Miss (and about the same at AA this year).
Top 100 ‘prospect’ for a first line pitcher with a year and a half of control befoe FA?
Not a threshold I would hold out for. Even three of them might mean 90, 91 and 92.
Those are lotto tickets.
Dangle the carrot. Top 25 at the least.
Reds need to secure a sure thing for a sure thing.
JohnnyTV… guys who are fv50 or even 45 that are teenagers are projectable. Look for good hit tool. Few strikeouta with a little power potential.
With young pitching look for command and control… then velocity.
Guys like that will most likely be top 100 in 12 months and in the mojors in 3 or 4 years. If those tools develope, they can be very good ml players.
In situations like MN, get 3 or 4 of the guys I mention. Don’t settle for guys 24 or 25 in AAA who have been up the ML and then back down.
That’s like trading for Friedl or Schrock or Aquino or others. You can’t build a winner like that
Everyone should go look at Doug’s top 25 right now before these trades are made and the recent drafted players are added… and read the comments to see who is not on there because of numbers. And think about those who have graduated this year and last.
In 2025 India and Stephenson with be in their 5th year, Greene, Ashcraft, and Lodolo will be in their 4th… so all still pre free agency. Barrero is still out there. Add in all these guys who will be arriving at the ML level. If they add 10 more guys with real upside, and not accept 24 – 26 year old ML ready guys in these trades, they will have a legit shot to win the WS if only half of them pan out.
I’m getting the feeling we don’t have to worry about a bad trade being made, I don’t think there will be any trade made. They will put off things to long.
I do remember another issue with the last rebuild is they waited til the very last minute to make a trade, Bruce I think, and claimed there wasn’t time for the others who needed to be moved
They really need to get this right. The opportunity is right in front of them.