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    2021 Reds
    Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez (Photo: All-Pro Reels/Flickr)
    Original Photo: All-Pro Reels/Flickr (photo edited). License here.

    Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds – July 3, 2021

    Doug Gray 177

    The Chicago Cubs come back to Great American Ball Park this afternoon to take on the Cincinnati Reds in game two of their 3-game set. Cincinnati will look to seal a series win. First pitch is set for 4:10pm.

    Starting Lineups

    Chicago Cubs

    Cincinnati Reds

    Joc Pederson – LFJonathan India – 2B
    Kris Bryant – 3BJesse Winker – LF
    Javier Báez – SSNick Castellanos – RF
    Anthony Rizzo – 1BJoey Votto – 1B
    Willson Contreras – CTyler Stephenson – C
    Jason Heyward – RFTyler Naquin – CF
    Ian Happ – 2BEugenio Suárez – 3B
    Rafael Ortega – CFKyle Farmer – SS
    Adbert Alzolay – SPTyler Mahle – SP

    Starting Pitchers

    Tyler Mahle

    The breakout from 2020 for Tyler Mahle has continued into 2021. Over the last two seasons he’s now pitched in 26 games and thrown 132.0 innings with a 3.68 ERA, just 103 hits allowed, walked 48, and he’s struck out 165 hitters.

    Mahle has faced the Cubs twice this season. The first time was on May 2nd and while the Reds ultimately won the game 13-12, it was a tough day for Mahle as he allowed three homers and six earned runs in 5.0 innings. The next time was on May 30th and he allowed just one hit in 5.0 shutout innings as the Reds took the victory in that one, too.

    There are some big splits for Tyler Mahle. Lefties have done very little against him this season, posting a .189/.280/.284 line against him on the year. Righties are doing much better, hitting .248/.307/.467 against him. He’s struggled at home where opponents have hit .270/.326/.516 against him (nearly 300 points of OPS higher at home than on the road for Mahle). His ERA this year at Great American Ball Park is 6.75, while it’s just 2.01 on the road.

    Pitch usage from 2021

    4-SeamSliderSplitter
    Velo94.387.386.4
    Usage51.5%36.3%12.2%

    Adbert Alzolay

    It’s been a bit of a tough season for Adbert Alzolay, who has posted a 4-7 record with a 4.55 ERA (85 ERA+). He doesn’t give up a bunch of hits, has a good walk rate, and a solid strikeout rate. But when guys do get hits, they tend to go for damage as he’s allowed 14 home runs in just 65.1 innings this season.

    Alzolay has faced the Reds once this year and things went well as he shut them out in 5.2 innings as the Cubs won the game 1-0 on May 28th. He’s struggled in his last three starts, allowing 11 earned runs in just 10.2 innings – including five homers.

    There are some big splits for Adbert Alzolay. Right-handed hitters have a .190/.254/.302 line against him with just seven extra-base hits against him in 139 plate appearances. Left-handed hitters, however, have crushed him by comparison. Lefties have a .241/.318/.578 line with six doubles and 11 home runs in 129 plate appearances against him this year. He’s also struggled a bit on the road, posting a 5.34 ERA (3.86 at home) while hitters have a 101 point advantage in OPS against him on the road as well.

    Pitch usage from 2021

    4-Seam2-SeamSliderCurveChange
    Velo93.693.586.080.884.8
    Usage20.7%28.1%45.4%1.6%4.1%

    When and Where

    • Game time: 4:10pm ET
    • Where: Great American Ball Park
    • Watch: Bally Sports Ohio, MLB.tv
    • Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
    • Forecast: ­77°, sunny, 0% chance of rain

    News and Notes

    Buyers or Sellers?

    C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic spoke with Nick Krall for an article published this morning about whether the Reds could be buyers or sellers this year as we get within 4 weeks of the trade deadline.

    There’s a lot of stuff in the article, so please go read it. But this quote stuck out to me a little more than the others (again, go read it, there’s more than a few things of note in here):

    Within reason,” Krall noted when asked if he could spend money. “We’re just working through it, just have to monitor the trade market to see how we can best improve the club.

    What’s next for Jeff Hoffman?

    The question that’s been asked 1000 times on this website over the last few weeks still doesn’t have a definitive answer, but talking out loud it sure doesn’t sound like a vote of confidence for a return to the rotation. But hey, I’ve been wrong before on trying to read into things people say.

    Michael Feliz to begin a rehab assignment

    In a case of “we may have forgot he was on the Reds”, Michael Feliz will begin a rehab assignment with the Louisville Bats according to The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Charlie Goldsmith. He was claimed off of waivers and then activated on May 17th. three weeks later he was placed on the injured list with a right elbow injury. He’s been out since June 8th, but he’ll begin throwing again in Triple-A with the hopes of re-joining the bullpen soon.

    NL Central Standings

    Playoff odds via Fangraphs

    TeamWLGBPlayoff %
    Brewers5033089.3%
    Cubs42407.510.0%
    Reds41408.011.7%
    Cardinals41429.03.6%
    Pirates295220.00.0%
    Previous Joey Votto still bangs, drives in two as the Reds top the Cubs
    Next Comeback win has the Reds leapfrog the Cubs in the NL Central
    Doug Gray
    Doug Gray has been covering Cincinnati Reds baseball since the 2006 season. Current bylines here, at Reds Minor Leagues, and Baseball America. Past bylines at The Athletic and a few other places I've forgotten and or cease to exist. Forever tired.

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    177 Responses

    1. One of Farmer or Suarez should be sitting, preferably Suarez. Lopez needs ABs until he proves he can’t hit, something Suarez seems determined to prove about himself.

      2. I was thinking what a line-up that would be. Capable hitters in the first 7 spots and sometimes hitter at #8.

    2. Gotto think they are doing a crash course in SS for lopez during pregame practice etc. There are 3 DH games coming up though so thats that. Hopefully Mahle returns to form at home.

      1. Seriously doubt it. I’d reckon that would have to be a desperate emergency because Farmer, Freeman, and Geno were out. I know it’s on the wish list for many, but I don’t see it happening.

        1. Right.

          There’s no reason at all to believe the Reds are even considering it. Lopez spent all of June in Triple-A where Errol Robinson was playing shortstop for crying out loud. If they believed for even a tenth of a second that Lopez could play shortstop, he would have played some shortstop in Louisville to see what would happen. Instead they let Errol Robinson play shortstop in Louisville and then promptly demoted Robinson to Double-A when the team called up Jose Barrero to Triple-A after Lopez was promoted. The Reds have been very clear that with their actions since 2015 that they have zero belief that Lopez could play shortstop.

        2. Better chance of India at SS than Lopez. Lopez has a total of 11 games at SS. India had 27 games. Most of India’s games were at 3rd while most of Lopez’s games were at 2B. So maybe one could argue to swap them. But at the end of the day, the Reds need a SS and it’s not India, Lopez, Senzel, Farmer, or Suarez. Maybe it’s Barrero but at the moment, he’s not hitting well at Louisville, albeit a very small sample size. I’d argue for a trade, insurance to give Barrero time to grow. Someone suggested CJ Abrams though he isn’t MLB ready either. Trevor Story isn’t having a great year and the Rockies sure aren’t going to re-sign him. Trade a controlled, affordable player like Suarez. Trade Moustakas though I expect he’s too expensive. Regardless, there are options. The Reds FO just needs to start doing their job. And Castellini needs to pony up the money to be competitive.

      2. I am holding my hopes in check for the DH games. Probably Votto to DH and Ty.Steve to 1B vs RH pitching and maybe the Punisher at DH with Votto back at 1B and TS behind the plate if they get a LH starter.

        I don’t know the DH rules as well I as probably should; but, I seem to recall it is easy to lose your DH if you do anything other than directly substitute for the guy at DH with another guy off the bench into the slot. That could determine Bell’s strategy.

        1. You definitely don’t DH Votto for Stephenson to play 1st. That doesn’t make a lot of sense.

    3. Give the Brewers credit. They’ve won 10 straight. But the focus needs to be on beating the cubs and burying the cards. When next Thursday comes- the Reds can then focus on the Brewers. Cubs are in free fall and today’s game would get the Reds back to 2nd place and cubs in 3rd. Cards have major injuries and start next road trip against the Giants/Cubs followed by home games against the same 2 and then Reds.

      Bury the Cards, beat the Cubs then focus on the Brewers.

      Go Reds.

    4. David Bell said when Lopez came up that he was a bench player but would look to get him some starts early to keep him in rhythm. He did that. David Bell and Nick Krall are not benching Suarez long term. He’s going to play. That’s just the way it is.

      The good part about these injuries is the Reds are actually starting to develop a bench and 26 man roster- at least on the position player side. At some point, Farmer, Lopez, Aquino become a solid bench. The catcher situation couldn’t be better. It remains to be seen how far away Barrero is from playing SS every day. Reds still need a back up RH hitting good 1b. Votto needs rest against lefties and injury prevention turning age 38.

      1. I think we’re all frustrated by Suarez’s play, but to believe he is going to become a bench player, or traded is deluding ourselves. Fixing Geno is the only way forward. I would keep his feet to the fire, and start Lopez in his spot a couple of times a week. Let him earn back everyday play. I’d also bench Farmer 3 games a week, and put Suarez at SS in those games. That would give Lopez 5 starts a week. Suarez will be back at SS once Moustakes returns, why not ease him back into it now.

    5. If Geno goes on another 4-30 with 15 Ks then maybe Lopez gets back in there, but I doubt it? What they should be doing is working in Geno at 1B.

      Joey vs righties .893 ops
      vs lefties .575 ops
      home .869
      road .643

      Joey also had basically the same splits last year. Why not keep him fresh and play Lopez at 3B & Geno at 1B vs some of the lefties.

      1. I’d still rather have Joey bat vs. a lefty if the only other option is Geno lol. Yesterday was a example why.

      2. Because Suarez against lefties is worse than Votto whose OPS is nearly 100 pts higher. First base doesn’t solve the Suarez issue. Remember his OPS dropped nearly 150 pts from 2019 and another 100 pts this year. And since I am one who has advocated that JV retire and because I like crow so much, playing JV against RH’ers makes sense. But despite last night, so does sitting him against LH’ers. Suarez simply isn’t the solution to that nor is the DH.

        1. No one solves the Suarez issue except Suarez. He’s the only Reds player signed thru 2024 guaranteed. Krall and Bell arent benching him. Perhaps shoulder and Covid did a 1/2 punch on him.

          Jose Ramirez fell off the planet from late 2018 till summer 2019. He was hitting .180 in a terrible slump. He is back and playing at his .850 OPS level. All you can do is cheer on Suarez and hope he follows Jose Ramirez.

      3. Career wise Geno is very good vs lefties….860 ops I think. He’s not going to be .600 ops level like Joey

        1. 2020 & 2021 Suarez is not the same guy as “career” Suarez. I’d love to see pre-2020 Suarez come back for sure!

        2. Career wise Geno is very good period. Why is that relevant given what we’ve seen from Geno since 2020?

      4. Suarez is hitting .125 with .211 obp vs. lefties. Votto .188 and .246. If Votto needs rest, I’m sure David Bell can find someone who can hit better vs. lefties.

    7. The Reds and Mahle need a win today to advance into 2nd. place in the NLC.

    9. Nick Krall”Within reason” .
      Laymans terms- We will trade only if H-E- double hockey sticks freezes over.

    11. Stephenson has got to catch that ball. I like him behind the plate mote than Barnhart but, he needs to work on his defense.

      1. Mahle will continue to struggle to reach the 6th or 7th innings due to his constant nibbling which leads to walks (2 in 2 innings) so far today! In addition his pitching style (nibbling) leads to high pitch counts per batter!

        1. I agree. He has “ace” potential if he learns to be more efficient.

        2. I’m leaning on Mahle to the pen, possible closer or setup man. His K/9 11.34 (already great) will rise in the pen.

          22 Rotation
          Castillo, Gray, Miley, Lodolo, Greene

          Starters in the Wings
          Ashcraft, Davis, Solomon

          Bullpen
          Mahle, Antone, Gutierrez, Garrett, Sims, Santillian

          That could be a really strong pitching staff, better than the 21 staff for sure.

    12. Solid contact by Geno, trying to take out their pitcher who just happend to be in the way. Not a strikeout though so there is that

    13. Not watching the game, having to follow on ESPN website! HOW did Ortega score?

      1. A passed ball by Stephenson, combined with an empty third base due to the shift allowed him to be 45 feet away when the ball passed. He won the footrace

        1. Thanks! That’s why it’s important for a ML catcher to block balls in the dirt! Cheap run by the Cubbies! Hopefully we’ll get it back and much more!

        2. Ball wasnt in the dirt. Around head high. Just fell out of his glove. He isnt near Defensively yet where Barnhart is. Reds need to pickup Barnharts option.

      2. Passed ball. It wasnt to far away but with the shift on he was half way down the line to begin with.

      2. No, he owns the Reds! He has been a thorn in the Reds’ side his whole career!

        1. I’m hoping he doesn’t notice that he doesn’t get to face Reds pitching if he’s on the team. Shhhhhhh…

    16. Reds bats need to start hitting because it’s a bullpen day. Milwaukee is winning 3-0 already against the independent league team Pittsburgh Pirates.

    17. We are facing Cy Young again today and can’t wait to get to the dugout.Cy has pumped in 20 pitches to get 6 outs and Mahle is at 50 to get those same 6 outs and we are down already 2-0 and counting.Now which team has lost 7 in a row?This is how the game goes sometimes but do we have anybody that is ready to pitch it or catch it or hit it today?

    20. Mahle 66 pitches through 3 innings.

      He is unquestionably his own worst enemy

    21. By the way I like the navy blue gear Stephenson is wearing. Red, White and Blue. Very patriotic. If it were me I’d trade the black trim for navy permanently. 🙂

    22. Not watching but if our guys are asleep today then pull them and put somebody else is that may be awake.You have to kick the daylights out of a team when they are down and keep them down.

    23. Mahle already at 66 pitches thru 3 innings! Cy Young 2.0 for the Cubs at 20 pitches thru 2 innings! Ridiculous!

      1. Reds couldn’t score on him the first time. The rest of the league could. The Reds always play up or down to the competition.

        1. “ Reds always play up or down to the competition.”

          So often the case

          Let them make it different today!

        2. Last time Aldzolay won 1-0 in wrigley in I guess Gutierrez debut. A windy day that day.

          If Bell does not start moving his batting strategy, I see another shoutout for the Reds by this pitcher.

    24. Did I read the stats on Alzolay correctly? Record of 4-7 and an ERA of 4.55?

    25. Kyle farmer is hitting .218
      Hes 2-20 against the Cubs
      He strikes out on back to back pitches he couldn’t hit with an ironing board

      No- hes not hitting .000
      Yes – once a week he squares a ball up

      But the notion hes even remotely a starting MLB SS is dead wrong .

      That at bat was awful

      Get Barrero up soon or trade or mail the season in.

      1. Old-School, I feel your pain! I’ve seen enough of Farmer to know he is not the answer! Hell, he’s not even the question!

        1. Its game # 82- small sample sizes are over. Fix SS fix the Bullpen or just move on to 2022. No one is fixing 3b except #7

      2. I’m hoping Barrero gets hot leading into the Allstar break. If so I could see them bringing him up after the break.

    26. I see all of the never-say-die Reds fans have found the comment section again today. I don’t know why the team even showed up today. It’s obvious from all of the instant analysis I am reading that they are just terrible. Mahle should just quit and become an accountant or something.

    27. Walk No. 3 to lead off the top of the 4th inning! C’mon Mahle! Bear down, hold the deficit at 2 and give us at least 5 innings! Please!

      1. On the verge of .260 AVG — far cry from vintage Votto, but not bad by MLB standards these days, either. He’s been doing well overall since his return from injury.

        1. In his last 30 games Joey is hitting .291 .376 . 544, that will get it done! There is something different about him this year. More energy maybe? Sounds like he is stepping up a little and taking a leadership role?

          I heard a story on WLW lastnight. The other night when the Padres walked someone to get to Tyler Stephenson. Joey was apparantly talking to him and saying ” you should be mad,” they walked someone intentionally to face you.” I love hearing that about Joey!

    35. Reds need to extend their batting innings. Mahle just completed the three outs and he’s returning to pitch almost right away. No pitcher can hold that dynamic and pretend to win. He need some resting between innings.
      Break Alzolay rhythm via bunt or something or a pinch hitter now!!!

    36. Too bad we can’t get somebody on base in front of JV! Cut the deficit in half! Maybe everybody else above and below JV in the batting order will wake up!

    37. It is a good thing Votto is heating up because Winker seems to be a little funk, hopefully not for long.

      1. I have no problem with him defensively, and his HR the other night was HUGE, but overall his bat is less than inspiring as a starter.

        1. Farmer has done a phenomenal job. Is he a every day SS? No but he is better than expected and he is just keeping it warm for Barrero. It was basically between him and Kyle holder, who has a 300 OPS last time I checked.

    39. Since Hoffman made his 3rd rehab, is he due to come back up now? It would be nice to add Hoffman and Santillan to the pen. They could replace Doolittle no Hendrix. That would leave Osich and Perez as the lone big question marks. That’s not too bad, considering where we started the season.

    41. Good thing Mahle is wearing a red hat! He’s been playing with fire almost every inning!

    42. Tyler Mahle nibbles
      Way too much
      But the guy is a legit #3 starter who has thrown 88 innings and is 7-3 and gives you a chance to win 25 of his 30 starts

    47. Naquin needed that! He’s been struggling a little bit since that 4-4 in Minnesota. He’s a solid platoon player.

    51. First 3 pitches from Doolittle. Looked like 2 offspeed. He said he was going to mix things up more

        1. Maybe his strategy was to just throw fastballs the first half, then cross up hitters with other stuff the second half. 😉

    52. Reds need to trade for their pitcher.Dude has thrown 55 pitches to get 15 outs.Has to be something we can pick up from him.

      1. I think Mahle gets Gabp syndrome when he pitches at home. Give up some cheap HRs so now you’re nibbling to everyone. He’s more aggressive in the zone on the road and his era is 3x better on the road. Hung in there today though…only 1 er

    53. Doolittle may be onto something here. He has found his offspeed stuff. Cubs hitter’s timing thrown off.

      2. he will need to walk that walk for a minute, my stomach is in knots every time I think of him

        he is a human Tums commercial

        1. its our sean doolittle…. with offspeed. Its like the “Spicy” Chicken sandwitch

    54. Got em right where we want em.Lets put up a crooked and put this one away.

    55. Doolittle coming out for a 2and inning! It just feels like we are tempting fate here.

    59. Votto is nearly 100% with that underhand feed….but he misfired there.

    64. Votto Makes up for the non error. Yelled Let (something) GO to the crowd if my lipreading is still good

    65. Votto atonement!!!
      They rarely make the 3-6-3 DP….but he pulled it off

    66. I know Hendrix takes a beating on here but I like his stuff. He just needs to harness it and bring it together. Just a rookie and I think in the 2nd half he will be more relaxed.

    70. I don’t care what the pitch count is. I don’t want the hitters to see my rookie starter for a 3rd time. We’ll take it though!

    73. Now if Lorenzen was available then he scores there after pinch-running for Joey. Freeman at 1B

    74. This is where I’d want Lopez. Just need a good solid hit to score that 3rd run.

    80. Geno!!! You have to take them down and threaten to take their job. Funny how that works! Should’ve been done a month ago

    82. I know he had a big home run the other night, but I’m so tired of watching Kyle Farmer hit.

        1. I think Bell didnt pinch hit for Farmer because Farmer is bu far their best defensive SS and it’s the 8th.

    84. Wish we could’ve gotten some more runs there, but I’ll take what we got.

    85. Votto proving that there is value in the walk. Pure manufactured run right there. Keep at it boys.

      1. There’s always value in a walk. Fun fact.. it’s hard to believe, but a walk and a blast is indeed, more runs than just a blast. Weird, I know.

    86. Suarez has had a day today, nearly missed taking one out. Take the lead RBI and one smoked to the P

    88. Nice job Osich (and bullpen ) again.
      So who gets the 9th?
      AG or Brach?

      1. He is not alone in that department. There are guys that we are not allowed to say their names on here.

      1. There needs to be an investigation. I mean who are the guys really and what have they done with our bullpen?

    102. W!!!!!!!!!!!!!
      Can’t say enough about how clutch this bullpen has been.

      It’s amazing how much smarter Bell looks when people do their jobs.

    103. All Hail Heath Hembree!! I actually do like watching him compete, 97 with a slider that he commands pretty decently, that always plays well out of the BP.

    104. BP with eight straight scoreless innings in back to back one run games.

      Top three in order go 0 for 11. Good thing management has this guy Votto under contract, much to the dismay of a long list of Votto haters.

      Reds are UNDEFEATED in the second half of the season (small sample size alert).

    105. Winker and Castellano not really a factor in this game. Hope they both get back on track, but nice to know that others can pick up the slack when necessary. Today it was Votto, Naquin, and yes, Suarez.
      Good teams rely on everyone in the lineup.

    106. Awesome job by the bullpen for the second day in a row! Protected a one (1) run lead late in both games!

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