Today is the day! Opening Day is finally upon us and the 2026 Cincinnati Reds season will get started later today. That means a lot of things, but one of those things is that it’s time for the staff here at Redleg Nation to make some predictions about the season.
Ashley Davis
Record: 90-72
If many of the “experts” can predict that Pittsburgh will be seven to ten games better this season than they were in 2025, then I can predict that the Reds will be seven to ten games better in 2026. Matt McLain rebounds from his abysmal last season, Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder each take a huge step forward in their development as major league pitchers, and Eugenio Suarez uses his power bat to carry the offense and the team to 90 wins for the first time in more than a decade.
Doug Gray
Record: 84-78
The loss of Hunter Greene hurts. Cincinnati has depth and that will keep them competitive while Greene is out, but he’s just better than the other pitchers in the rotation and missing half of his starts in a season as a guarantee puts a bit of a damper on things and does leave the Reds with less depth to lean on in the rotation. The offense should be better. Like the pitching situation, Cincinnati has depth in the lineup now, too. That is something they didn’t have last year. The addition of Eugenio Suarez and Sal Stewart should add strength to the middle of the order and lengthen the lineup. Healthier versions of Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain and Spencer Steer could do the same.
There’s still questions with the team, though. The bullpen has questions with it. Even with the improved offense there are some concerns that just about every hitter has with them about their performance last season that need to be answered in 2026. There are even some questions about the defense for 2026 with a lot of possible moving parts. It’s a team that should be good, and a team that has upside to be competitive for the division and more, but one that has a whole lot of questions and a lot less certainty than some of the true contenders in the National League.
Jim Walker
Record: 81-81
My prediction is 81-81, simply because at this point I don’t have a clue given what has gone down with the Reds starting pitching during spring training. However I would not be shocked if either of those numbers ended up 10 games too high or too low.
For the late tuners in, Hunter Greene is gone till June or July. Nick Lodolo is already into one of his blister episodes. Andrew Abbott’s spring ERA is approaching 12. Brady Singer’s blister episode was said to be a passing thing; but, he did not look up to snuff in Milwaukee on Monday. As if this was not enough to be concerned about, Rhett Lowder and Brandon Williamson did not make it to the mound in an MLB game in 2025 due to injuries. And, oh yeah, Chase Burns has something they are calling a “range of motion” issue. Otherwise the starting pitching is hunky dory.
John Ring
Record: 86-76
Lots of news from Spring Training: the resurgence of McLain, the blisters of Singer, the unbelievable surgery for Greene and the last chance for Benson. It’s all over now. Both good and bad news. The regular season is here. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has went from the best in the NL Central to a big question mark. The Reds outfield is a perceived weakness.
No one in the media is picking the Reds to make the playoffs because of the Greene injury. That’s fine. No one did last year, either. But their offense is marginally better in 2026 and their pitching deep looks to be deep.
Predictions: Make no mistake about it—the injury to Greene was devastating to the Reds. Either Benson or Hinds need to emerge as a Griffey-type player (Senior, not Junior) and the young but deep pitching staff must step up. I think it happens. 86-76 and the Reds make the playoffs.
Richard Fitch
Record: 90-72
The following is The Athletic’s pre-season power rankings and the Reds prospects for the 2026 season:
A 14-11 September record, coupled with a collapse of epic proportions in Queens was enough to propel Cincinnati to the postseason, where it promptly got swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers. Miracles rarely happen twice, and the Reds didn’t do enough in the offseason to signal that their playoff berth wasn’t a fluke. Bringing back fan-favorite Eugenio Suárez is great, but it’s not enough to move the needle, especially not after the 34-year-old posted an OPS of .661 and .700 in the season’s final two months. Hunter Greene being on the IL to open the season has already put Cincinnati on the back foot before Opening Day.
Well.
Lost along the way of this “in-depth” analysis was the likely resurgence of Elly De La Cruz, free from the leg injury that waylaid his 2025 season. Ignored was the spring training play of Matt McLain, finally free of the shoulder injury that shadowed him all of last season as he fought to regain his footing and return to the player he was in 2023. No mention of the electric arm of Chase Burns, the return of Rhett Lowder, or the promise of Sal Stewart. Just the Hunter Greene setback. Apparently, none of that moves the needle for this writer.
More interested scrutiny says otherwise. The author is right about one thing. Bringing back Eugenio Suarez is great. Along with the rest of needle movers, the Reds can win 90 games this season.
Tom Mitsoff
Record: 86-76
For most of the offseason, I was very much hoping that Nick Krall would trade Brady Singer for a starting position player with a good bat. The past two weeks have showed why Krall makes more money than I do for our respective interactions with Cincinnati’s professional baseball team.
Hunter Greene is out until probably July after having bone spurs extracted from his pitching elbow. Nick Lodolo can’t avoid blistering his pitching hand and joins Greene on the injured list to start the season. Singer also developed a blister, but apparently it isn’t as bad as Lodolo’s, since Singer is starting Saturday. Andrew Abbott wouldn’t have retired me during the spring. For at least the first couple of weeks, Chase Burns, Brandon Williamson, and Rhett Lowder will be asked to keep this team in games. I’m glad there is depth in the starting pitching.
Generally, the Reds are indeed better on paper. I like the bullpen much better, and would like for Tony Santillan to become the closer. I’m anxious to see how Eugenio Suarez performs, but I’m not on the 40- to-50 homer bandwagon many people are. I hope it happens, but major league pitchers know how to get him out, and more specifically, strike him out. I’m anxious to see if Matt McLain’s hitting carries over into the season.
I’m on the fence about whether or not to call this team genuine contenders for a deep playoff run. But something struck me (not, not a bird or a low-flying plane) as I read C. Trent Rosecrans’ very optimistic outlook for the 2026 Cincinnati Reds. He believes that if the Reds are legitimately in the playoff hunt, not just on the periphery, that the front office will be willing to make a significant trade-deadline acquisition. I haven’t seen this confirmed anywhere, but with Phil Castellini taking over as controlling owner, it seems the purse strings may be loosened to a degree. They were apparently a legit contender to sign Kyle Schwarber. They opened the vault to bring Suarez in, when he appeared to be the lone big bat left on the free agent market. And now Rosecrans believes they might be willing to go for it at the deadline. I’m guessing he knows something about Phil Castellini’s intentions, which hopefully mirror recent history.
I’m going to say 86 wins this year, and as I (incorrectly) predicted last year, a tight race with the Cubs and Brewers for the division title. Pittsburgh does scare me. It’s all going to come down to how effective their young pitching can be.
C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic believes Elly De La Cruz could win MVP. We’d all love that. I think Sal Stewart could be at least as important to this team’s chances. You can tell from watching him, he is a very tough out.
The “window” for contention until Elly’s team control ends is the next three years. This team needs to be thinking nothing but, “What can we do to improve the big league team?” Now’s the time. Let’s enjoy.
The Full Predictions
| From | Wins | Losses |
| Ashley Davis | 90 | 72 |
| Doug Gray | 84 | 78 |
| Jim Walker | 81 | 81 |
| John Ring | 86 | 76 |
| Richard Fitch | 90 | 72 |
| Tom Mitsoff | 86 | 76 |
Last year all of the participants from Redleg Nation’s staff picked a record above the .500 mark. That turned out to be the correct pick as the team went 83-79 and made the playoffs. But everyone who gave a firm number went over those 83 wins as the predictions ranged from 84 wins up to 90 wins.
I’m more in line with Jim. Just seems like the reds will be destined for 83 wins when things go right and 65-75 wins during down years.
Not saying this will be a down year but we won’t have Greene for the foreseeable future and Lodolo… who knows?
.500 is a good choice.
Love reading this stuff every season.
88-74 is my guess.
I do hope that, if the Reds are in the hunt come July like I’m expecting, they finally make a trade for a legit, left-handed outfield power bat. It seems like the most glaring, obvious mising piece.
I have no idea who they should target or who would be available, but the Reds REALLY need to address this.
Unless, of course, Benson or Bleday suddenly start hitting like Jay Bruce circa 2010. If that happens, this just may be our year.
81-81
Last year I predicted 93-69. I was only off by 10. That’s not bad right? haha 😉
I don’t know how much they’re going to win. I just want them to WIN. I’m VERY VERY VERY tired of losing.
Go Reds. 🙂
@Melvin>> Following the AAA Bats was a bad influence on you, since it was logical to think the Reds might IL a couple of guys who were seriously scuffling off of injuries and bring up a couple of the guys at AAA who were Reds hot at the plate. 😉
As is (right now), I’d guess 82-80. If Green returns healthy and Lodolo issues are short term, maybe better.
I’m inclined to agree with Doug which is extremely unlikely for me. However, I don’t see the loss of Hunter Greene to be that profound. Why? Look at his experience from MILB to MLB and he is frequently out. I’m not certain that the two younger Reds pitchers are ready either. Yep one has two plus pitches but does seem ready to mix it up and be reliable every fifth or sixth day, the other more finesse and seems to be a pitcher and not a thrower, but I’m concerned about his stamina and health. As far as Mr. Suarez – super good human but I see him hovering around a .220 average and maybe 30 bombs – a liablity IF he gets on the field or runs the bases. Yes there is a chance the Reds might have a rookie of the year candidate or even a short stop who has a remarkable year, but otherwise there are many holes with division play to be a bit more challenging this year. All this to say mediocrity is likely. Enjoy the season everyone!
89-73.
I can’t see how this team won’t be 5 wins better than last years. Healthier De La Cruz, McClain and Steer. Saurez and Stewart replacing Espinal and Lux. Both the rotation and the bullpen deeper than last year. That gets us to 88-74.
Adding one more win because I’m optimistic, and because no one else has picked 89 wins yet.
I’m with you Indy for the same reasons. Anything less than the playoffs will be a major disappointment.
Well Health is always a issue with any sports team. The reds unlike say the Dodgers can’t afford to lose anymore pitching. As Francona told his club “its time” I think he is correct, and when its all said and done unleas riddle with injuries. 90-72 is my prediction
It’s hard to guess really. The pitching staff has taken a hit. How likely is it that Pagan comes close to last year’s performance? Or Abbott, who hasn’t looked particularly good thus far? Today will give a window into that. Adding Geno helps some, but likely not as much as we’d all like. Can Stewart perform and contend for ROY or struggle for a while with longer exposure? A full year of Hayes doesn’t move the needle upwards. If he’d only hit as well as Lorenzen. And the OF? Still the same – Benson, Friedl, and Marte. Hopefully, Benson’s leash is extremely short. Bottom line, barring everything breaking their way, probably 85-77 +/- 2. If everything came together, they could win the division. Highly unlikely, but we get our first clue today.
Hey! We pretty much got a prediction out of you this year! That’s already one victory!
Just playing. I appreciate your comments LDS. For a while through the Bell era you were kind of the villain on here. I have often shared in your opinions, though. Go Reds!
+/- 2. LOL.
Realistic assessment LDS.
On the positive side, the Reds are growing organizational depth. On the negative side, competing with the top dogs in MLB requires more than just organizational depth.
86-76 +/-5.
This past week or so has certainly put a damper on optimism. I will feel a lot better when Abbott tosses a couple of consecutive good 6 inning games. His performance was very alarming during ST but I think (keyword think) that he has the attributes to figure it out. Lodolo should miss no more than 2 starts and I’m glad Reds have the depth to turn to Williamson and Lowder. April wins are always incredibly more important than leadership tends to indicate in their messaging. I agree with many here that a resurgence from McLain seems imminent and the addition of Stewart’s bat will be huge. The Suarez impact will not be as big as many people hope but still 30 HRs will help and 200 Ks will hurt. I wanted Hinds to be given a true shot at starting as I think he will be a difference maker. Now I just hope he keeps mashing in AAA to be ready for the inevitable chance at the Bigs. I expected Steve0 to have a big year in his walk season, but he didn’t show that in ST. I worry about Hayes and Marte. I am also now more concerned about the pen than I thought I would be.
I see the Reds as a slightly improved team still struggling to play above .500 baseball. If a couple Reds have breakout years, they could lead the team to the playoffs. A young pitcher or two needs to step forward in the absence of Hunter Greene.
81-81. Lots of unanswered questions. Will the youngsters hit enough, can the pitching hold up with Greene out for half the year, the bullpen has a few questions. My hope is I’m wrong but l think we will not be in the playoffs and Singer and Stephenson will be traded at the deadline.
88-74
I like the odds of improvement from underperformers last season. I like the bullpen additions. And I like Suarez and Stewart batting for a whole season. Starting pitching will come around.
@Nick hope your right!
This is exactly the number I had in mind. Last year we routinely had to have Austin Hays or Tyler Stephenson bat fourth. This year we’ll have Sal Stewart and Geno Suarez while Stephenson bats 7th or 8th. McLain further removed from the shoulder injury could be a force if he keeps his K rate down. Better platoon options this year with Myers to spell Friedl in CF, and Steer/Benson for LF. If Hayes can be the .656 OPS hitter he was as a Red last year, that’ll be enough with his glove at 3B. Anything more will just be gravy. Lodolo will be back in a couple weeks, and he made 28 starts last year. We aren’t replacing HG’s time in the rotation with minor league free agent reclamation projects, we’re filling that gap with high first round picks who are ready for the show. We even still have depth right now with Petty and Aguiar in AAA both with MLB experience (granted both with question marks as well).
I agree with 88. Will add that games started by Fraley are now started by Marte, who I think will have a very good year.
Benson still on my bubble. But if either stumble, there are 5 legitimate players at AAA who are just waiting for a shot in JJ, Hinds, HRod, Jorge and Dunn before you are giving abs to the likes of Connor Joe.
I understand why we didn’t trade for that big outfield bat everyone is clamoring for. He is here already, to be uncovered by Tito. Shoot, maybe it IS Benson…
Matt McLain is the straw that stirs this offense. 2026 is gonna be a lot of fun.
And Boston are the wanna be Reds
Reaganspad, just for clarification as I’ve seen it here 2-3 times over the last week, Carlos Jorge has yet to play above A ball and is slotted to debut at AA this year. So he isn’t quite at the same level at the other AAA veterans, as impressive and fun as he’s been to watch this spring (he can really play a great CF).
77-85
I thought I was going to be the only one to predict a losing season.
I like the depth in the Red’s pitching and am kind of excited to see what the young arms have to offer. They have to be on the side of ” this is my opportunity to show what I’ve got. I’m not going to let them send me down “. I’m just thinking the offense might not be enough.
78-84.
This is a better offense than last year that was dead middle of the pack in runs scored. I dare say they could push for a top 10 offense.
We were a well below average offense last year, helped a bit (in terms of raw runs scored) by GABP. Team OPS+ (which takes into account where you play) was 90 (or 10% below average).
I’m a big Sal believer, and I hope Geno has another big year in him… but I think we are probably still a little below average on the hitting side.
Jim, and to a lesser extent Doug, throw some refreshing cold water on the situation, but I’ll go with big optimism and say 92 wins. So much is better than last season, and another year of Tito should not be overlooked.
Finally, consider the division – the Pirates are certainly better, but 5-10 games better? The Brewers are due to regress after so many seasons of exceeding expectations. The Cards will be better, but still a very down period they’re going thru. The Cubs are the clear division favorites, but even they have several issues. he division as a whole will be noticeably better, perhaps the best top 4 in MLB, but no one is dominant so the opportunity is there for the taking.
I went to Europe for spring training instead of Arizona. We left on the day the Reds pitchers and catchers reported, and got back just in time for me to catch the first game versus the Guardians on TV. Maybe that experience has tempered my outlook.
I’m just going to enjoy the year like I was 12 years old again. I’ll watch every game and cheer them on no matter what.
I’m not going to get caught up in the shenanigans of who can’t hit, can’t pitch, can’t field or this guy is to short , to tall, to old , to lazy or he just can’t coach.
It’s about getting back to just loving and enjoying this game I’ve loved for over 60 years.
+1000000, JB.
Based on last year, it’ll likely take 3-5 WAR to capture rookie of the year. If it’s a Redleg, who ya got—Stewart (0.5 WAR in 55 ABs last year) or Lowder (1.9 WAR in six 2024 starts)?
Stewart
I certainly seems like Stewart will be given the opportunity if he’s hitting in the 4 hole between EDLC and Geno.
My money is on Stewart.
How many All-Stars will the Reds have?
I got 2—Elly, plus a starting pitcher.
I think we got 3. Elly, Sal will start McLain will come of the bench
I’m going 86-76 . The offense should be better and the pitching is expected to be around it was last season , at least… If Reds have a good 1st half despite Greene being out (supposing something like .500 or roughly above) this team will be very dangerous in the 2nd half especially if they added pieces at the trade dead line…
Their best add ons as the season progresses might be internal, depending on how things go at AAA. On the position side, there are Hinds, Bleday, Rodriguez, and maybe even a resurgent CES. When it comes to pitchers, Franco is already up, but there are Chase Petty, Luis Mey, Zach Mawell, and perhaps Julian Aguiar waiting in the wings.
Their best add on as the season progresses will hopefully be Greene!
🙂
@WKUCHAD>>> Yep, of course. Still early in the day for me 😉
87 – 75
I am a bit concerned that Greene is down for half a season, and we all know about how long Lodolo and his blisters can last. That being said I feel good with Williamson, Burns, and Lowder getting starts in their place.
The offense has a real HR threat in it, and it’s been a long time since we’ve had one. If we have McLain, and EDLC getting on to their potential, it should create a lot of RBI opportunities for Suarez.
If we could have added 1 more power bat, I’d say we’d be competing for the division. Now I’d say we should be comfortably in the WC rankings.
I will go 89 and I did over 80and a half on draft kings. Also did Lowder to win ROY at I think 30 -1.
I’m going with 85 wins. The eternal Reds optimist in me wants to say more, but I’m concerned with our starting pitching with Greene out for so long and Lodolo starting the year on the IL.
Offense will be better (low bar) and bullpen is a little bit of a question mark.
I feel like the Reds have had some amazing offensive years or amazing pitching years. I’m ready to put those together in the same year.
I’m in at an optimistic 87-75. That’s 2 games above .500 per month. I think the Reds starting pitching will be slightly better than average, and everything else right around league average. So a slightly better than average month, six times. On average. Oh heck I’m just excited for real baseball and hope springs eternal. It’s Opening Day! Go Reds!
My prediction: 86-76
1 Milwaukee
2 Cincinnati
3 Chicago
4 Pittsburgh
5 St. Louis
Greene’s loss for a chunk of time is similar to last year, assuming he comes back and stays healthy the remainder of the year, so that’s close to a wash. The offense should move to the middle of the pack if not a notch above. The pen worries me as always, especially Pagan whom I never considered a closer until last year. 83 wins last year, I’ll bump it up to 87 this year.
HG only had 19 starts last year. He might still hit 15 this year if he is back before the all star break.
Right
Just hoping for a good start to begin the season. That’s key.
One thing I’m very anxious to see this year is if TF let’s the team get a bit more aggressive on the bases this year.
100% agree with this
Man, I wish I could drink the Kool-Aid as much as the rest of you all!
I’m feeling 76-86. Abbott and Pagan make me nervous, and I think we’re still probably a slightly below average offense.
I’d love to be wrong though! And I will gladly admit I was wrong if that’s the case!
Regardless, it’s Opening Day… go Redlegs!
It would bum me out to go into the season with this expectation.
I don’t know what more Abbott can do to make a believer out of fans. Spring training stats meaningless; season stats matter.
I actually agree with you on Pagan, but we can’t deny he mostly delivered last year.
Still shaking my head why the Reds front office hasn’t extended Abbott. Obviously I’m much higher on him than most.
Abbott won’t be a free agent until his 30/31 season in 2030. Seems like a 5-6 year deal right now would be ideal for the Reds to control him through age 33 or so and not be tied to his decline years.
Torn between 85 and 86 wins. Let’s take the year I graduated High School and make it 86!
I wouldve liked to see Hinds make the team but between him, Geno, and Elly that is 500 strikeouts in the lineup alone.
The lack of contact hitters is going to hurt again but if the pitching stays relatively healthy (bad start already) I could see 85 wins. All depends on the bullpen:
I only wanted Hinds if he was given a starting job. I didn’t want him to sit on the bench.
Hopefully he’ll keep hitting in the minors and be one of the first call ups once there’s an injury.
There was almost no chance of him starting over Marte in RF or a platoon involving Steer in LF.
90-72
One of my favorite posts of the year. Thanks Doug.
Predicting Lowder, Burns, and Williamson highly exceed expectations. Concerned about the bullpen though. Really wish we had a more elite closer, as I’m not sold on Pagan. Go Reds!
I mean 83 wins last year with McLain hitting .193 on the road and a sub .200 Elly after July.
Add in Suarez. Stewart in what could be a breakout season. Healthy Elly and hopefully a much better McLain. That’s got to be worth 5 ish+ wins assuming no regressions. Maybe Hayes hits better. Sure, could just be hopeful thinking.
I’ll go with 87 wins.
84-78. Let’s hope it’s good enough for the playoffs this season.
The Reds win their division. I have no idea what the record will be. If the Cubs are real good, the Reds will exceed all expectations and top them in the division. The manager does matter.
It isn’t like the Reds, or any team, has had injury-free rotations. The Reds had to fill a spot or two last year with various hodgepodges of pitchers. They can overcome Greene’s injury. But the offense should produce much better than last year when scoring 0 or 1 run became all-too commonplace. I’m a realist and can see this team improving by 6-7+ games over 2025.
One of the best predictors of the future is the past. I would love to be as optimistic as everyone else here, and I hope I am genuinely wrong. But with injuries already testing the pitching depth and large questions surrounding the bullpen and defense, i see the Reds taking a step back.
It seems like the last few times the Reds had a positive step forward one season and the next season was supposed to be the big step forward, that the Reds have fallen on their face and disappointed. Hopefully this is the exception and they actually take the next step.
Either way, Opening Day is here and I am excited for it! Go Reds!
89 – 73 per my magic 8 ball
I was more optimistic before the Hunter Greene Injury. But I’ll go with 85-77. Wild Card.
Go Redlegs!
Last year my prediction was “I don’t know”. I couldn’t get a read on the effect Terry Francona would have on the team. They turned out to be quite resilient. They were several times last year when the team could have folded (Memorial Day weekend against the Cubs comes to mind). Yet they bounced back each time. I think this team will be better than many expect. It will all come done to health. But overall I am optimistic.
82-80. Just don’t think they did nearly enough to improve significantly. Hope I’m wrong and Ashley is right. Now if McClain continues his spring training tear and Sal has a great rookie year and Elly is past his injury issues this could be a fun year. Bullpen and especially Pagan makes me uneasy. I’ll be rooting for them as I have for decades. Let’s roll. Go Reds!!
Amplifying on my concern about the starting rotation…..
The three guys now in the rotation behind Abbott and Singer have a combined 37 MLB starts and 205.1 innings pitched at MLB. Even if Lodolo returns quickly, at least 2 of these guys will still be counted on for essentially half the season in a best-case scenario for Greene’s return.
Yes, two of the three guys in question were top 10 overall picks in their draft. However, so were Greene and Lodolo (ironically, in the very same slots as Burns and Lowder, respectively), and consider how long the emergence of Greene and Lodolo has taken.
I hope for the best, but the odds are not in the Reds favor.
I am more confidant about our young pitchers, especially over the short term ie if Lodolo can return quickly.
I am not lacking confidence in them longer term so much as thinking they will realistically have some struggles that are appropriate to where they are in their development.
But i still expect them to perform well and as to expected as #’s 4/5 starters over the course of 162. They just have so much ability, right?
To me, this makes the bullpen and its resilience the greater priority, or concern, as our younger arms will likely require more support from the relief crew.
Given the absences of Greene and, for now, Lodolo, and the possible regressions from Abbott and Singer, the focus on the relief corps gets more important.
Johnson’s acquisition is a big help. Connor Phillips appears to be real. And Burke as a 6th inning guy may be positive as well. I do not have the same confidence in Ashcraft, Ferguson or Moll (I still ask why did Seattle, a serious playoff contender, needing LH relief help, not retain Ferguson, and Moll is our 3rd LH option now elevated to our 2nd behind a lesser known, Burke).
We have Pagan, Santillan, Johnson, and Phillips, then the question marks, but should not count on Maxwell, Mey or Nicholas to be anything more than they are. So the bullpen has added help, but probably isn’t as deep in reality as it is on paper.
The problem will be is they are taxed beyond their capacity, and there is more likelihood for that now. Francona’s 2025 approach (use up the bullpen now and figure it out later) might be a factor, too.
So, it’s the impact on the bullpen and, subsequently, on the offense to score more, where i think our flaws will be just as exposed and where lesser quality, ie 3B, LF, RF, and C, has its impact.
Random thoughts on opening day …
Bounce backs from guys who were injured last season. Quick as possible recoveries from guys already injured Greene, Lodolo, and Ferguson. Other unknown injuries that are unfortunately going to occur during the season. The length, severity, and who gets them. Playing winning baseball in the first month or so is huge. Sadly a bad start isn’t overcome by my beloved Reds. Need to beat the other teams in our division especially Milwaukee. The Cardinals have had our number for many years but they’re rebuilding. It’s a 162 game rolling coaster ride gentlemen. Since 1970 I’ve watched or listened to almost every game. Let’s Go Cincinnati!!
Predictions are like noses, everybody has one.
(touches end of nose….) Yep, it is still there.
I think this year is going to be oddly different. Overall, I think the Reds will score more runs, but they will struggle somewhat with pitching.
I think they will be anywhere from 81-81 to 90-72. But I will predict an 84-78 season.
94-68. (I had 97 locked and loaded before Greene went on the IL.)
This team looks very strong on paper. The offense is going to push for top 5 in runs scored. (ok, ok, borderline top 10 in actual quality once you take GABP out of it.) Every position except CF and catcher figures to be improved, some of them vastly. McLain and Steer and Elly and Hayes won’t all magically reach full health, and Benson and Stewart and Hinds and Marte won’t all break through. They don’t have to. They were *awful* across the board last year. If even 33% of those coins come up heads this is an average offense. The coins that come up tails, they won’t commit the whole season to in the name of development the way they did in 2025. McLain and Stewart in particular look very promising, Elly is Elly hiding in plain sight, and Benson doesn’t have to change a thing to break .800 OPS this year. The rising tide lifts all boats. Hitting is contagious.
The weaknesses are the bullpen, catcher, outfield D as usual, and the big one (like Jim says) the encroaching possibility that the pitchers’ health might be a disaster. They’ll be asking a lot from Burns, Lowder, Williamson, Franco, Petty, whoever, earlier than they’d like to. Burns is the X factor. I don’t actually know what “X factor” means but if I could magically make one player on the team have a good season it would be him. Anyone want to make something of his .360 BABIP last year?
I am not usually an optimist. I think I’ve missed low in 6 of the last 7 years, 2024 the exception. Can’t help myself this time. The Reds’ best home record in the GABP era is 50-31, in 2012. It says here that record is falling.
Just fyi Blog red machine had a nice piece on the Cincinnati Reds tradition of opening day and MLB lost opportunity to carry on the city’s great tradition.
Nevertheless noone puts on an opening day celebration like Cincinnati!!!
88-74
Let’s go with 89 wins. And hoping for more!
Over 500 and make playoffs again.
Hitting is better with Suarez signing & McLean and Elly at full health.
Starting pitching is down with Green injury. Also no one is mentioning the loss of Martinez & the enormous flexibility he gave the Reds as quality starter and reliever. Pitching depth will help as it is better this year.
I’ve never been a numbers person, even sucked at high school math, but I am an intangibles person. I’m for the team and how they play together, more than their collective numbers or ERA.
I think with all of these guys healthy, a year older and more experienced, the team will take a step forward to compete for the division.
We have a few guys with swagger, we have some guys with swagger and a team mindset, and some guys that could see that success this year and become downright cocky about their abilities.
If our defense comes out strong, to help our already good pitching, I think THAT will help turn this group into a team more than anything. When the lineup is doing their part to keep runs off the board, the pitchers and hitters will coalesce.
Pitching and defense wins games, it’s creates teams, and the offense will create a sense of resilience against the rest of the league.
We’ll know it when we see it…those intangibles don’t really slow up on the box score or stat sheet, as much as it will with our eyes.
Suarez and Tito will be huge factors in how the team emotionally invests…not out of desperation, or fear of losing, but with the fact that the team is built right now and deserves its chance.
Hey, don’t give the secret away!
To me the team still plays less than stellar baseball all around; should-be double plays are not, too many running errors on the base paths, unproductive outs. The little things that win divisions. Just the other day Cowboy pointed out Burns threw a change up crushed for a HR after the batter looked silly twice against the heat. I also feel some of last year’s dependable arms may have got burned out some; Pagan, Santillan, Abbott. Suarez may bring HRs, but how many solo shots? I’m excited the most to watch McLain, and I think Moll may be back as well. I think the optimism tilt will fall on Elly. I’m predicting a season similar to last year’s.
80-82. I hope I’m wrong. I’m concerned about pitching depth with Lodolo and Greene. I hope McClain can bust out of his slump from last year and that Stewart step up and can deliver. Hoping EDLC can stay healthy and perform at a high level.
Can I make a request of Doug/the site? Can we come back and revisit these predictions at the end of the season. I think it would be fun to see how it played out compared to our reasoning at the beginning. And maybe have a little contest to shout out whoever was the closest with their prediction. Is this possible?
Not having the reds play the first game of the season is a crime. MLB we are the home of baseball. I wouldn’t watch an inning of the Giants Yankees game last night.
Made traditional tour around city Gospel on Dalton ave. this morning.. my Dad and I saw many an opening day there at Crosley Field.
Though I agree with you, I understand MLB’s decision. And we still get the perk of being the only MLB team guaranteed to open the season at home every year.
I love this team and believe it is going to be a great season for the Reds this year.
Feeling real optimistic today, so my most everything goes right for the Reds this season prediction is 95-67.
Here’s how I got there:
Name AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
Tyler Stephenson 422 0.254 0.321 0.417 0.738
Sal Stewart 524 0.269 0.342 0.464 0.806
Matt McLain 544 0.261 0.330 0.454 0.784
Elly De La Cruz 586 0.266 0.333 0.526 0.859
Eugenio Suarez 513 0.238 0.303 0.501 0.804
Spencer Steer 512 0.246 0.317 0.428 0.745
TJ Friedl 505 0.271 0.341 0.400 0.741
Noelvi Marte 460 0.254 0.303 0.450 0.753
Jose Trevino 142 0.239 0.289 0.380 0.669
Will Banfield 22 0.227 0.292 0.318 0.610
Nathaniel Lowe 410 0.256 0.341 0.434 0.775
Christian Encarnacion-Strand 30 0.267 0.312 0.433 0.745
Edwin Arroyo 23 0.261 0.346 0.348 0.694
KeBryan Hayes 186 0.242 0.316 0.366 0.682
Will Benson 170 0.241 0.310 0.429 0.739
Dane Myers 168 0.268 0.339 0.399 0.738
Blake Dunn 26 0.269 0.321 0.385 0.706
JJ Bleday 120 0.258 0.331 0.450 0.781
Rece Hinds 50 0.240 0.309 0.460 0.769
Hector Rodriguez 30 0.267 0.290 0.400 0.690
Totals 5443 0.256 0.324 0.446 0.770
RC = 787
Name IP ER R ERA
Brady Singer 162 75 81 4.19
Andrew Abbott 153 63 68 3.72
Nick Lodolo 132 50 54 3.44
Chase Burns 120 52 56 3.88
Rhett Lowder 95 45 49 4.26
Brandon Williamson 92 43 46 4.22
Hunter Greene 92 36 39 3.54
Chase Petty 9 5 5 4.91
Julian Aguiar 4 2 2 5.17
Jose Franco 5 3 3 4.81
Emilio Pagan 65 24 26 3.38
Tony Santillan 70 25 27 3.24
Graham Ashcraft 61 25 27 3.76
Pierce Johnson 64 25 27 3.58
Brock Burke 56 25 27 4.08
Connor Phillips 55 22 24 3.66
Caleb Ferguson 52 22 24 3.75
Sam Moll 47 22 24 4.13
Kyle Nicolas 34 17 18 4.37
Zach Maxwell 22 11 12 4.33
Luis Mey 15 8 9 4.78
Tejay Antone 15 7 8 4.43
Hagen Danner 8 4 4 4.13
Yunior Marte 7 4 4 4.83
Totals 1435 615 664 3.86
Projected Team WP 0.584
Projected Team Record 95 67
If the Reds have to deploy Edwin Arroyo, it means some injuries or severe underperformance. That will be no bueno. Why is it that all the so called experts do not even see Reds in playoffs again? I don’t disagree that this team is still average. Below in hitting and above in pitching.
I believe that Arroyo will make his Major League debut this year, but hopefully not in a injury induced situation, but more hopefully a bench fill in for quick 10 day DL stint or a Sep. cup of coffee as the 23 AB above would imply.
Projections and experts don’t include the Reds in the playoffs because they are unable to properly project the young players that we have a lot of. They only deal well with “proven” players.
I disagree about this team being average. I believe the pitching will again be above average as you state above, but I believe the offense will be average at worse, and more likely a bit above average.
Go Reds!
My prediction is 85-77. I think this challenging to predict right now with Greene and Lodolo’s injuries and they feel to me more like they’ll be competing with Pittsburgh than Chicago or Milwaukee because of the injuries.
I think they’ll finish strong though assuming Greene is back and Lodolo gets more healthy, and believe they’ll make a push late in September but finish 2-3 games from the last playoff spot.
Overall I think the Offense will be better than last year, but Pitching not as good as last year. The keys I think will be Elly, Matt McLain, Sal Stewart. They need all 3 to be solid I think.
It will be an interesting year and I think the NL Central games will be really competitive for all teams even with St. Louis.
80-82 The early pitching losses will dig a hole that they can’t get out of.
I think 81-81, I mean that is what they are built for. Not exactly the BRM and not the Colorado Rockies. The offense has to be better than last year, putrid is easy to improve upon. The pitching may take a step back with injuries to Greene and Lodolo, plus unknowns in the BP. Nice to have Sal beginning the year. MM will be better, he cannot be worse. Eugenio will strike out 200+ times and hit a fair number of homers. What is a fair amount? I would say more than 20 but not 49 like last year. I think too more injuries on pitching staff will test their so called depth.
The Redlegs can get to 90 wins if several positives come true.First they have to overcome Hunter Greene’s and Nick Lodolo’s injury history.Second the hitters in the lineup have to get better at situational hitting versus the better teams.The bullpen depth must come through and finally several of the younger players that have been around in the system must all have breakout seasons such as McClain,Marte,Benson,Steer,Hinds,Ashcraft,Lowder,Burns,etc.and Eli goes from All Star to serious MVP candidate.Francona and his coaching staff have to adjust to the different personalities inside the clubhouse to allow them to reach their potential if that happens they will be a factor in the NL Central race and have a chance to surprise the critics.