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    RN Recap: Another day without bats, another one-run loss

    Wesley Jenkins 29

    The story of the Reds season so far can be summarized in the quick jaunt I took up the block to get some lunch and “all of a sudden” the fifth and sixth innings were over. Of course, I was watching on my phone, but still.

    The Reds pitchers have been efficient at getting outs, yet the Reds hitters have been more efficient at giving them away. The result: A three-game sweep with every game decided by a single run.

    FinalRHE
    Milwaukee Brewers (6-1)120
    Cincinnati Reds (1-4)030
    W: Peralta (1-0) L: Castillo (0-1) S: Wilson (1)
    FanGraphs Win Probability | Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread

    THE GOOD:

    Luis Castillo was absolute nails today. He struck out the first three batters he faced, all of them swinging over his dastardly change-up. Ben Gamel in particular was made the fool by the pitch multiple times on the day. Walks were Castillo’s one downfall, though other than a walk to Jesus Aguilar that brought home the game’s only run, he worked around them. Castillo finished with nine strikeouts to his four walks and ceded the game to Amir Garrett.

    After giving up a leadoff double to pinch hitter Lorenzo Cain, Garrett buckled down and got out of the inning with a pop-up, strikeout, and flyball. In my opinion, of the Reds bullpen options, Garrett has looked the best so far.

    You’d really think with the Reds pitching combining for a two-hitter today, there would be more positives. Alas, the bats. The cursed bats.

    THE BAD:

    The aforementioned Aguilar run was truly a comedy of errors. Castillo walked Aguilar on four straight pitches and then looked to pick him off at first. Except, Joey Votto wasn’t covering the bag. Castillo pocketed the ball but balked Aguilar to second, allowing the slow-footed first baseman to score on Manny Pina’s single.

    Later in the game, Chris Welsh chided the Reds first baseman and pitching staff for how they were holding on runners after Christian Yelich stole second with a massive lead. “I’m not that fired up by the way the Reds are holding runners at first base,” Welsh started. “[They’re] almost running without fear and you’ve got to put a little fear, a little hesitation into the mind of the runner.” Lorenzo Cain stole third in the eighth as well.

    This offense is just bleh right now. The outfielders not named Yasiel Puig are now 1 for the season, with three walks and 15 strikeouts. Matt Kemp‘s ninth inning single gave the Reds hope, ultimately for naught.

    Scott Schebler in particular continues to do himself no favors with a sombrero on the day. Yes it’s early in the season and Schebler has proven himself previously, but with one Nick Senzel nipping at his heels, you’d think he’d make more of an effort to lay off the high fastball.

    EVERYTHING ELSE:

    Puig came up to pinch hit for Jose Iglesias in the bottom of the eighth and battled well, fouling off pitch after pitch. Eventually, he succumbed and struck out on a curveball in the dirt. Neither good nor bad, just a sad glimpse of hope.

    Today is the 30th anniversary of The Kid’s debut. That’s a happy thought. Here’s a happy thread of Ken Griffey Jr. tweets to end this morose recap:

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    Wesley Jenkins
    Wesley - or Wes, whichever really - first fell in love with the Reds because of Ken Griffey Jr.'s smooth swing and shining smile. Ever since that first infatuation, it has been tortured fandom broken up by a blown 2-0 lead to the Giants and a Roy Halladay no-hitter - but that's neither here nor there. The only things Wes loves as much as the Reds are pancakes, flannels, and Vanderbilt baseball. You can find more of his writing at wesjenks.com or his carefully curated retweets @_wesjenks.

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    29 Responses

    1. Schebler has proven himself previously? Not sure I agree with that statement.

      1. I mean he had a 109 wRC+ last year which is definitely better than average but a fair quibble. I think he’s a worthy bench bat at the end of the day.

    2. Senzel has to stay healthy for him to be “nipping at the heels”. He’s barely played over the last year now

    3. I hope the Zion Williamson of baseball is s junior in high school, because the Reds are gonna have a shot at getting him.

      Jesse Winker took the first pitch to him in the 9th inning for a strike. It was in the geometric center of the plate, thigh high. He will never in his career see a more hittable pitch. Couldn’t pull the trigger.

      At least we already know that Puig, Wood, Roark and Kemp will all be gone by late July. Probably Gennett, too.

      1. If they are twice as good as they’ve shown so far, they still lose 100 games.

        Today’s outfield was 0-for-41, until Grandaddy Kemp grounded one through the hole. The pitching staff is 5-for-5 in walking at least 5 guys per game. Most high school teams, even in Vermont, have better team speed than the Reds. Barnhart is the only regular who is an above-average fielder, if you don’t call Iglesias a regular. Votto has become Dr. Strangeglove at 1B.

        They have apparently decided to call up Senzel in some undisclosed future year, so that he will be under control of the Nashville Reds in 2025.

        Can’t anybody here play this game?

      2. So, then, Winker shouldn’t expect at least the possibility of a get-em-over fastball?

      3. Green Mountain, I had a friend in college from New Hampshire who claimed to be a top hurdler in high school. He wouldn’t have made second-team All-Home Room at my school. I assumed that Vermont baseballers were equally slow on firm, dry footing, even if plenty swift on the ice.

    4. Looking at the positives. With the exception of Gray pitching in frigid temps… the starting pitching has been a vast improvement. After a shaky first Roark found some rhythm.
      Am I concerned about the bats… sure… who isn’t. However Winker hit a couple of shots and Votto already has more hits than he usually does in April.
      I am sorry they found no takers for Gennett but maybe they miss an intangible that I know nothing about.
      Now Schebler…; that is another story. Don’t believe in him.. sorry. Leash has to be short. Ready for Ervin if he does not come around… quickly.
      Senzel pronto when ankle fine. Fracturing a finger diving for a ball and rolling an ankle sliding aren’t a symptom of an issue.
      I am lucky enough to be around high level athletes daily… sometimes you just get hurt playing the game or practicing.
      We are better than last year. What I was hoping for.

    5. How about those Rays with 5 wins and 0-0 against the Rockies today in the 10th.

    6. If the Reds offense doesn’t turn it around, Luis Castillo might just become this generation’s Mario Soto

    7. So are there still those who think Scooter isn’t that important???

      1. In 2018, Gennett had a wRC+ of 92 in High Leverage situations. A 142 wRC+ in Low Leverage situations. 117 wRC+ with runners in scoring position.

        Suarez had a wRC+ of 148 in High Leverage situations. 150 wRC+ with runners in scoring position.

        Votto has a wRC+ of 146 in High Leverage situations. 170 wRC+ with runners in scoring position.

      2. Scooter has been very good as a Red getting runners Home. He is a BIG loss. What kills his WRC+ numbers in those situations is his bb/k ratio is roughly 1/3. Votto and Suarez are more around the 1/1 bb:k ratio. As far as getting the hits and driving in the runs, he is right there with those guys. Not quite as good at extending the inning for the next guy in line though. So you probably don’t want him hitting near the top of the line up. Darn good hitting middle to lower part of lineup!

    8. Up and down the lineup this offense has been simply awful at hitting the fastball so far.

    9. It is a long season, but, there are some concerns.
      Losing 4 of 5 at home to division teams is not good

      The pitching will be decent this season, maybe not enough with this inconsistent offense.

      31k in attendance for a 3 game series has to be concerning to ownership. The start will not help.

    11. I hate being 1-4. But, man, if we complain this much this early…it gonna be an extra long year.

    13. Like Jreis I am an ‘ole timmer Reds fans. Commentators on RLN are expecting another BIG RED MACHINE. Never happen. Big Red asks if any RLN can play the game. At 70 I can drop a foul ball, forget to cover first, and especially strikeout just as graceless as Votto does. All without being paid a cent. At $136,000 per game Votto should return his paycheck to the owner for games like today.

    14. Every pitcher we’ve seen this year looks like the 2nd coming of Cy Young.

    15. They gave up 9 runs in 3 games versus one of the best offenses in MLB. That is why the pitching looks good.

    16. Frank Robinson in his prime is not walking through that door.

      Another analogy is that last year’s team started 1-4, on its way to 3-18 and 95 losses. Frank Robinson didn’t walk through the door last year, either.

      The rosy scenario thus year was 81 wins, and maybe a hair better. The only question left now is whether Puig, Wood and Roark will bring enough in trade to make up for losing Rainey, JoJo Gray and Jeter Downs. That would be a miracle.

    17. And yet a bunch of the Reds hitters hit well with RISP. Votto, Gennett, Suarez all hit really well with RISP in general.

      The reason the Reds lost a ton of 1 run games was the putrid pitching, particularly out of the bullpen.

      I get it, a lot of the fans overreacting are trying to extrapolate last year’s results to reach some type of dumb pessimistic hypothesis. about this season. The 2019 Reds might be a bad baseball team, but so far, they haven’t indicated they’re going to be a bad baseball team for the same reason they were bad last year.

      That said, if their pitching can perform this well, but the offense stinks, they’ll still be in a good position to win a lot of games. They could easily be 4-1 right now instead of 1-4. People don’t like to hear it, but variance and luck play a huge factor in close games.

    18. I disagree with this. I think the pitching looks good because for the most part, it has been. The Reds have a team ERA so far of 3.00, good for 2nd in the NL and 9th in all of MLB. Obviously, it’s a small sample size, but the offense being bad is also based on small sample size.

    19. Small sample size, but the pitching has been decent. 3.00 ERA which is 2nd in the NL. They are doing a much better job of keeping us in games than last year. They actually did a really great job of holding the Brewers offense down, but that was overlooked because of the silent bats. The offense will turn it around, not a matter of if but when. Not sure they have the firepower to really compete for the division, but they are better than this.

    20. Big Ed mentioned Jeter Downs, evidently Jonathan Mayo doesn’t realize he was traded because in an article on the REDS web site Mayo listed him as the Red to have a breakout season.

    21. Schebler’s routine…takes awhile to find his groove…goes on a tear…gets injured. Lineup is full of hitters…getting off to a relatively slow start. The problem is, they could find themselves out of it by the end of the month.

      1. Precisely. It could get late early. With so many division games in April, a good start is a must.

      2. “Relatively slow start” doesn’t do it justice.

        Winker has been unlucky of late, having hit a few bullet at ’em balls. Suarez is hitting the ball well. Nobody else among the big sticks is doing much of anything.

        They simply have to get off the schneid, soon, or the year is over.

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