Reds Trade Values
[For an explanation of how these rankings work, check out the introduction post here.]
Too Early to Rank
Billy Hamilton, Tucker Barnhart, Michael Lorenzen, Raisel Iglesias, Kris Negron, Anthony Desclafani
Effectively No Trade Value
Skip Schumaker; Brennan Boesch; Jason Marquis, Ryan Mattheus, Jumbo Diaz, Burke Badenhop
Trade Assets
| 15. Homer Bailey: Bailey got a big contract, struggled, and then got hurt. It’s a shame for him and a shame for the Reds. No one is going to trade for him now, but if he has successful surgery, a team could hope to acquire him in the offseason to anchor their rotation for the next 4 years. Owed: $86M through 2019.
Reasonable return: At this point Bailey could only bring salary relief because of his large contract extension. A team would have to be pretty high on him to trade for him coming of Tommy John, but it might just be a shrewd move. I think the Reds would have to take on about $50M to get any interest, which would save them $36M going forward. Estimate: $.7/1 ratio of dollars saved to dollars spent. |
| 14. Marlon Byrd: The Reds biggest offseason acquisition has been a mixed bag, but not a very valuable one. His power offsets his low average and OBP to make him about average at the plate, but his terrible defense offsets that to make him about replacement level. He’s signed for this year, but has an option for next year that will vest if he gets about 350 more plate appearances this year. Owed: balance of $8M, $8M option for next year.
Reasonable return: I think it’s possible for the Reds to trade Byrd for salary relief, but it’s tricky because a lot depends on that option. I have trouble believing that anyone is going to want to pay Byrd more than $1M – $2M next year, so if his option vests, the Reds would have to take on just about all of it to move him. If it doesn’t vest, I could see a team paying most of what the Reds owe him this year for a slugger off the bench. Estimate: Vested, 1/10 ratio; Unvested 10/1 ratio, average of both possibilities, 1/1 ratio of dollars saved per dollars spent. |
| 13. Joey Votto: The Reds former MVP got off to a torrid start, but the worst calendar month of his career has tamped down some of the excitement about a career resurgence. Votto, who has spent significant time on the DL in 2 of the last 3 years, is signed for 9 more years, so he would be a major commitment and risk for an acquiring team. He’s also got a full no-trade clause. Owed: balance of $14M, $219M through 2024 including $7M buyout.
Reasonable return: Because of the very large size of the contract, Votto can certainly only be traded for salary relief. My guess is that the Reds would have to pay at least $70M of his future money to move him, but who really knows? With numbers this big, ownership of both teams would have to be heavily involved, and when that happens, anything can happen. Estimate: 1.5/1 ratio of dollars saved to paid. |
| 12. Brandon Phillips: DatDude has decided that power hitting is for the birds, and somehow it’s working for him. His OBP and defense have made him a solid big league contributor this year, if not the All-Star caliber player he once was. He’s signed through 2017, and struggling with turf toe at the moment. Owed: balance of $12M, $27M through 2017.
Reasonable return: Phillips will probably only bring salary relief at this point. I would guess the Reds would have to eat at least $10M to get another team interested. Still that could save $15M – $20M over the next two years. Estimate: 1.7/1 ratio of dollars saved to paid. This value could plummet however if he isn’t doesn’t bounce back from the toe injury. |
| 11. Manny Parra: It’s been tough for Manny to stay on the mound, but he’s had success before. If he gets on a roll up to the deadline, he could be a solid LOOGy addition for a contender. Owed: balance of $3.5M.
Reasonable Return: If he has a decent month, I bet the Reds could do a straight salary dump, moving Parra to save over $1M without picking up any of his tab. |
| 10. J.J Hoover: Hoover is putting together a decent season ERA-wise by getting the ball on the ground more and keeping balls in the park, but his control is still pretty bad. He’ll hit arb for the first time next year, and could be an average middle reliever for the next three years. Owed: balance of $.5M, three years of arb.
Reasonable return: This would be a trade like Heisey’s last year, that would probably net the Reds one C or C+ prospect. |
| 9.    Bryan Pena: Off to a great start with batting average and walks (.296/.379/.352), Pena also provides some versatility in the field and could be a nice boost to the clubhouse of a contender. He’d be a half season rental, so he’s also not much of a commitment. Owed: balance of $1.4M.
Reasonable return: I think the Reds could get a solid C+ prospect, a guy who could possibly develop into a bullpen arm or bench depth. |
| 8.    Jay Bruce: How the mighty have fallen. Once an All-Star and fan favorite, Bruce’s struggles have continued this year, leading to calls for him to be benched, sent down, or banished and never spoken of again. He’s generally been average at the plate and in the field this year, but he’s still just 28 and could improve, and a club that acquired him would have him for next year with an option for 2017. Owed: balance of $12M, $12.5M next year.
Reasonable return: I think if the Reds put Bruce on waivers, he would get claimed. I don’t know how much anyone would give up to trade for him, but it would save the Reds about $17M over the next year and a half. |
| 7.    Mike Leake: Leake isn’t doing the Reds any favors if they want to trade him, pitching miserably his last three starts. Right now he doesn’t look very good, but he’s got a solid track record as a 3rd or 4th starter. He’d be a half season rental for an acquiring team. Owed: balance of $9.8M.
Reasonable return: It would help if Leake would pick it up on the mound, and rentals like him can really boost or kill their value with a few appearances near the deadline. Still, I think that the Reds could get a C+ or B- prospect for him. |
| 6.    Devin Mesoraco: The Reds All-Star catcher is suffering from a hip injury that will likely have him sidelined for the rest of the season. He just signed an extension through 2018. Owed: balance of $2.4M, $25.1M through 2018.
Reasonable return: Devin would be a lot higher on this list if he weren’t injured (obviously), but being on the DL looking at season ending surgery would probably make most teams think about low-balling the Reds if they tried to deal him. Right now I have trouble believing the Reds could get more than two B- prospects for him, since there’s really no reason for a team to deal for him now as he probably wouldn’t help them this year. |
| 5.    Tony Cingrani: It looks like Cingrani is better suited for the pen than the rotation, but good innings are good innings, and right now he’s throwing them. He’ll be arbitration eligible for the first time next year, so an acquiring team would control him for three years at a reasonable cost. Owed: balance of $.5M, three years of arb.
Reasonable return: Relievers usually don’t bring much in prospects when traded, but they also aren’t usually traded when they’re 26 years old and have decent numbers in the majors. I think the Reds could get a B+ level guy for him. |
| 4.    Zack Cozart: Cozart is enjoying a renaissance at the plate and that together with his sterling defense has him playing at close to an all-star level. He’s in his first year of arbitration, so a team could acquire him for the stretch run and control him at a reasonable cost for two more years. Owed: balanced of $2.35M and two years of arb.
Reasonable return: Cozart probably isn’t good enough to bring back a top 50 prospect that a team has hung their future on. He’s still got a lot of value though, so the Reds could try to go for quantity and try to get three B or B- prospects with decent upside and hope that one develops into a future star. |
| 3.    Johnny Cueto: It’s hard to find a guy on this list without a caveat to his value, and Cueto’s recent elbow issue is his. If he’s healthy, he’ll probably be the best pitcher traded at mid-season this year as he’s off to another excellent start. He’s a free agent at the end of the year. Owed: balance of $10M.
Reasonable return: Cueto is right on the edge of being a guy you trade for quantity or quality, and it will probably depend on the desperation of the acquiring team. I think the Reds will go for quantity in the end because I doubt that anyone will give up a top 50 guy for a half year with injury concerns. I think the Reds could get two B+ prospects and maybe another one or two B or B- prospects from a team with a deep system. |
| 2.    Aroldis Chapman: He may be one of the 5 best pitchers in the game right now, but he’s only pitched 20 innings. As confusing as that is in general, it doesn’t make valuing very easy. He’ll be arbitration eligible for the final time next year. Owed: balance of $8M, 1 year of arb.
Reasonable return: As a top tier closer, Chapman could legitimately make the difference in winning it all for a contender. That plus his additional year of control could make him very tempting (especially if the team that got him used him more creatively). I think the Reds could potentially get an A- / top 50 guy for him, or maybe two in the 75 to 100 range. |
| 1.    Todd Frazier: Frazier has continued his breakout and has himself in the discussion for top 10 players in the league. A team acquiring him would get gold-glove defense, power from the right side, a solid batting eye, and a generally nice dude for this year and two more. Owed: balance of $3M, $7.5M next year, and one year of arb.
Reasonable return: Now that he’s got more of a track record and he’s signed for next year at a low rate, Frazier is the kind of guy that could bring back a true top tier prospect and maybe then some. Being at his peak, I can’t imagine the Reds would go for quantity with him, and they could expect an A-level / top 30 guy as the heart of a package. |