We don’t know what the Cincinnati Reds budget is going to be in 2027. And neither to they. No one really knows what it will be for any team in 2027 because the Collective Bargaining Agreement expires in December and ownership has been shouting very loudly that they want a salary cap and a salary floor. The players have been adamant about a salary cap not being on the table since the beginning of time. Until there’s more clarity on all of that, though, we are dealing with a lot of unknowns. What we do know is that plenty of players are due raises in arbitration.
MLB Trade Rumors released their projected arbitration numbers for the 2027 season. Cincinnati has 12 players who are arbitration eligible. Some of them aren’t expected to get much of a raise, while one of them is going to get a very large raise and a few others could get a big bump in pay, too.
Cincinnati will have money coming off of the books from 2026. Jeimer Canderlario’s contract is now over. Brady Singer, Tyler Stephenson, and Brock Burke are all free agents. Eugenio Suarez has a $15M mutual option, Pierce Johnson has a $6.5M mutual option, and Emilio Pagan has a $10M player option. If all of those players wind up in free agency, that’s just over $63,000,000 in player salary coming off of the books.
The Reds have 12 arbitration eligible players but they are not required to keep all of them. While the MLB Trade Rumors projections aren’t perfect, they are quite good and relatively accurate and within a reasonable range of expectation. Here’s what they have projected, along with how much those guys made in 2026 and how much of an increase their new salary will be (players can’t be offered less money in arbitration than they made the year prior).
| Player | 2026 Salary | 2027 Salary | Difference |
| Elly De La Cruz | $780,000 | $7,900,000 | $7,120,000 |
| Nick Lodolo | $4,270,000 | $5,700,000 | $1,430,000 |
| Spencer Steer | $4,000,000 | $5,700,000 | $1,700,000 |
| JJ Bleday | $1,400,000 | $4,800,000 | $3,400,000 |
| Andrew Abbott | $780,000 | $4,500,000 | $3,720,000 |
| Matt McLain | $2,300,000 | $4,000,000 | $1,700,000 |
| Tony Santillan | $1,800,000 | $2,500,000 | $700,000 |
| Graham Ashcraft | $1,750,000 | $2,200,000 | $450,000 |
| Tejay Antone | $780,000 | $1,500,000 | $720,000 |
| Dane Myers | $780,000 | $1,500,000 | $720,000 |
| Brandon Williamson | $780,000 | $1,300,000 | $520,000 |
| Oswaldo Cabrera | $780,000 | $1,100,000 | $320,000 |
| TOTAL | $18,680,000 | $42,700,000 | $24,020,000 |
The biggest bump would go to Elly De La Cruz. That shouldn’t be surprising given that he’s been an elite level player two of the last three seasons and is just now reaching arbitration. His expected raise is nearly as much as the next two highest raises combined.
Andrew Abbott is expected to get the next biggest raise among the group, jumping from league minimum to $4.5M. He didn’t exactly have a good year in 2026, but he was an All-Star in 2025 and even if he weren’t Cincinnati pitching is in shambles and they can’t risk not bringing him back.
Things do get more interesting with the next two biggest raises according to the projections. JJ Bleday hit .303/.398/.642 in the first 30 games with the Reds this year. That took him through May. He hit .190/.300/.347 in the final 103 games that he played this season. Is that a guy you want to give $4.8M to?
What about Matt McLain? Defensively he is quite valuable. But since his shoulder surgery he’s played two full seasons and has hit .204/.288/.339. While $4M isn’t much in today’s game, the numbers put up by McLain are those of a guy who in many organizations would be riding the shuttle back-and-forth between Triple-A and MLB as the last guy on the bench when there was an injury and someone needed to be a warm body. Those guys don’t tend to make that kind of money and for a team that cries poor it’s possible that’s too much for them to commit to.
If we assume that the Reds bring back all of these players and they get these exact raises, it eats up a little more than a third of the money they have coming off of the books. There would still be a solid amount of money to spend in free agency if they kept their budget the same as it was in 2026.
Of course the team doesn’t have to tender the player a contract for 2027, either. That decision will need to be made in November and if the player is not tendered a contract then they will become a free agent. Players who are tendered a contract from this group simply means that they will have two options – one will be to go to the arbitration hearing and state their case and get a 2027 salary number, or option B, the two sides can agree on a contract before then.
Non-tender candidates to me are McLain and Santillán. Bleday could be another but the Reds had to replace him looking for an OF power lefty hitter in FA so it would be cost more than $4.8MM for 2027…It’s not an easy decision…
By the way, I read some Pagán declarations to the media and it would mean he is thinking apparently to be back in a Reds uniform next season so he maybe would exercise his player option …
Why non tender McLain? At the very least he has some trade value in a package
McLain and Steer together get a raise of 3.4 M. They can make up an entire bench being able to cover all positions minus catcher. Of course McLain can also go down to AAA if need be. I wouldn’t get rid of Mighty Mac just yet.
Abbott isn’t going anywhere He somewhat embarrassed himself this year dealing with his weight issues . I strongly believe he will put the fork down (working with a nutritionist and trainer) and be the pitcher we know he can be.
” JJ Bleday hit .303/.398/.642 in the first 30 games with the Reds this year. That took him through May. He hit .190/.300/.347 in the final 103 games that he played this season. Is that a guy you want to give $4.8M to?”
Right or wrong I can see them parting ways with him.
If it were me, I’d say no to Bleday, McLain, and Santillan. Maybe no to Cabrera depending on his option situation.
Let Rodriguez, Dunn, and Jorge take the OF AB’s and Brito or Arroyo the INF AB’s.
Would love to see Dunn stay healthy for a whole season.
Bleday hit a career high of 24 homers with 16 being at GABP.He gets it about pull and lift at home but he is not a power hitter and neither is McLain.If its hit over power with one under 200 and the other a little over 200 why do you keep either?As you said H4H we have others that can take those at bats.
Both Bleday and McLain are extreme fly ball hitters – especially Bleday. Ke’Bryan also is well above average in hitting flyballs. Those three also had remarkably low BABIPs, some of which can be tied to the fly ball tendencies. (Fly balls that stay in the park are generally easy outs.)
One obvious way for them to get on base more is to hit fewer fly balls, and for McLain to strike out a lot less often. Valaika, who apparently will still be the hitting coach when he is Warren Buffett’s age, hasn’t figured out how to help them.
Nice to see the potential cost for eaxh player. Lots of overlap for McClain and Bleday – instead of thinking about them separately, lets look at their total post-arb potential $s at almost $9MM. I’d rather have a real FA hitter at 2b or OF for $9 – 11MM than both of them for about $9MM. We have plenty of options to replace them.
Elly/Lodolo/Steer numbers seem low.
Bleday is now a more powerful strong side platoon than Jake Fraley but not an every day player. l made the comment the other day that Stephenson $$$$ may need to go to other roster areas per the poor Reds.
There’s your answer on how to pay arbitration raises and buy SP…Dont sign Stephenson, Geno or Singer(good) and nontender and DFA until 12/1/2026.
Did it occur to any one else the Reds CEO/POBO/ and GM held a media press conference to answer questions but cameras were banned and nowhere to be found???? PC is a marketing guy….. Dont put any visuals out there….Very sad but Reds fans need to expose this lack of transparency.
Reds ownership and FO are literally running and hiding into a nuclear winter. I doubt we see any of them on camera for a long time.
I think MattyMc sticks but I also think Elly and Boras are going to ask for WAY more than that number. They are looking to press if not break records for ARB1 award. And I’m thinking the ARB board will award it because of who he is and what he’s done. All speculation on my part.
Agree mark and perhaps maybe the incentive for the Reds to put Elly on the trade market as they cry poor as an excuse. Elly is getting super expensive super fast. Reds will use this nuclear winter lock out to cry poor and find ways to pay off dead money salaries due to Greene and Hayes by trading/DFA ing/and nontendering anyone and everyone to reset for 2028.
Is there anyone that thinks the Reds can win with a similar budget in 2027 or 2028 relying on the current talent in AA/AAA/ and big league level? Anyone think the Reds are spending S$$$$$ in free agency?
Good points as always O-S. I don’t think the 2027 payroll will exceed the 2026 payroll. I also can see them spending less.
I got a chuckle while reading that Bob Castellini wanted a home run hitter (Suarez) and Nick Krall wanted another pitcher (Nick Martinez). I guess signing both was not even discussed lol
TBR had $81 M roster in 2026 if BBR is correct.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TBD/tampa-bay-rays-salaries-and-contracts.shtml
The Reds can win with better players regardless of what they spend on them. The Reds 2026 roster was lucky to be 75-87. The pitching was very bad overall. The batting was mediocre. The defense was subpar except 3B, CF, and 2B.
@ Oldtimer
Yes, Tampa Bay probably had a lower payroll for 2026. But if they march through the playoffs, and after the 2026 season, they are also going to get a big payroll hit from arbitration.
Their alternatives are to keep this winning team together, and pay the big raises, meaning their payroll in 2027 will likely be a lot higher…or
do the Tampa Bay thing and trade away their most expensive players for prospects or younger players from other teams. They may or may not be competitive in 2027 then.
That’s what they do.
It’s a little bit of an illusion to say that Tampa Bay has a lower payroll (they do for 2026) but it will take a big jump in 2027 if they keep the roster together, as the individual players get compensation for the year they had in 2026.
TBR was an expansion team in 1998. They have won two AL pennants since then.
In the past 50 seasons, the Reds have won one NL pennant.
The players, not their salaries, win or lose games.
The Reds need better players. Some (most) of the 2022 trades did not pan out. Just like the 1981 Reds trades didn’t work out.
The Reds MiLB AAA and AA teams have few MLB ready prospects.
IMHO Reds need to trade Elly sooner than later. In other words when ever Reds can get max value for him. We have done nothing with him on our roster all these years and nothing is going to change if we continue to hold on to him. This is our chance to put a significant dent in our woeful minor leagues. The longer we wait and the less value he becomes. Especially given the fact that if he stays on this same trajectory of improvement he will command top pay. Few teams (as things stand now) can afford that, narrowing those bidding to trade for him. It’s time for everyone to face reality. Unless there are drastic changes to the CBA and the Reds budget this team is into a serious rebuild mode for years. Trading Elly soon will help dictate how long that rebuild will take.
Elly is arguably among Top 5-10 players in MLB. Let’s round up to Top 10.
The Reds have rarely had, much less traded, Top 10 MLB players in my lifetime.
Frank Robinson in 1965 was one. He returned Milt Pappas and two others.
George Foster in 1981 was another. He returned nothing of value.
Johnny Bench was never traded. Pete Rose was never traded. Joe Morgan was never traded by Reds. Joey Votto was never traded. Barry Larkin was never traded.
The odds are stacked against trading Elly for good value pitchers in return.
I don’t understand thoroughly how arbitration works, but I don’t think I would give McLain and Bleday that kind of money. How does McLain get a 1.7 million dollar raise after the season he had? Is that normal for arbitration for players to have those type of raise when their careers are kind of going backwards?
I would even question giving Steer close to 6 million. If you just let those 3 go, that would be 15 million dollars not spent, and could possibly be spent on a legitimate starting outfielder or Starting Pitcher, really good reliever correct? Steer is a solid player when healthy, and Bleday I think can be a 4th outfielder, perhaps McLain a utility infielder. But part of the reason the Reds are kind of stuck is they keep hoping players like Steer, Bleday, McLain, can be core pieces of their everyday lineup.
Arbitration is based on your career up to that point, not just the last season or two. And players can’t be offered less than they had made the previous year. So for McLain – he’s still getting paid (in theory, since we don’t know about his tendering/non-tendering) based partially on his rookie season (which he should be since he was forced into league minimum salary no matter if he performed like 2026 PCA or 2026 MM).
Quick question when is the non-tender deadline?
I actually haven’t been able to find it. Last year it was November 21st. It’ll be right around there again this year.
Steer has some value, but I question …..how much? Are they keeping him for appearance sake?
And McLain has gotten enough chances to prove himself. This is who he is. The 2023 season was the outlier, the other seasons say who he really is. Fans still think he is going to be that player again. Probably not.
It’s time for the Reds to move on from these guys.
Will Edwin Arroyo get as many chances as Matt McLain?
But the Reds continuing problem is still pitching. More than just position players.
It’s certainly within the realm of possibilities that we have seen EDLC last games as red. I can see the Reds non tendering him crying corporate poverty
Trade, maybe. Non-tender; zero chance that happens.
Yes zero chance. Trade definitely when he has max value.
Are you even trying to be a serious person with this comment? Good grief.
You guys have a lot more faith in ownership than I do. I certainly am worried about the Reds nontendering EDLC with that large of a pay raise.
Non- tendering EDLC? Well, sure. Why not? The Reds best player, a player that many teams in the league covet, and why not just let him go by non-tendering. For nothing.
There is no way you are actually worried about that, man.
“I certainly am worried about the Reds nontendering EDLC with that large of a pay raise.”
Worry about Nick Krall trading Elly for magic beans, but don’t worry about Elly being non tendered.
Not even this ownership is that CRAZY. Wait……naw…they can’t be. 🙂
Somewhere Nick Krall just said to you. “Hold my drink”
Yeah, that’s not going to happen. They might trade him for a baker’s dozen minor leaguers who never pan out, but they won’t just release him.
As bad as they were this season, the Reds finished in first place in all of baseball in one area: NEW YORK (AP) — Robot umpires overturned 54% of challenged calls in the first season of the Automated Ball-Strike System, and catchers were far more successful than batters. The Cincinnati Reds had a net gain of 16.8 runs, according to Baseball Savant calculations of total run value of overturns on challenges. The Los Angeles Angels were next at 14, followed by the Athletics (12.3) and Minnesota (10.1).
Cleveland was 30th at minus-13.4 and several other playoff teams rated poorly by that metric: the Los Angeles Dodgers (26th, -8.5), Tampa Bay (25th, -7.8), the Chicago Cubs (21st, -4.6), Milwaukee (20th, -2.4), Atlanta (18th, -2.1), San Diego (17th, -1.9), the New York Yankees (16th, -2.1) and Houston (15th, -0.8).
And what if, in the new CBA, all or some arbitration is replaced with restricted free agency, as in some other leagues?
For the uninitiated, typically in restricted free agency schemes, the original team can retain a player by matching a formal offer made by another team and accepted by the player.
Interesting thought. I wonder how that would work, but it would be largely tied to a salary cap I’d reckon.
I generally follow the NBA more than any other league. It hasn’t created a lot of movement, until Quentin Post this offseason, it had been since 2020 that a RFA changed teams through an unmatched offer sheet. Most change teams through sign and trade. Recently, RFA has been a bit of a point of contention with the players in recent years due to lack of cap space teams available to make any viable offers. Making an offer and waiting for it to be matched ties up cap space that could be used elsewhere in FA until it is resolved. The lack of cap space has allowed their current team leverage with the players forced into choosing a lower (than market value) 1 year salary in order to hit FA the following season, or work out an extension with their current team with little leverage. Last offseason Giddy, Cam Hayes, Kuminga, and Grimes all went deep into the offseason before resolving their situations with two taking the 1 year QO. Watson and Duren went late into the offseason this year before resolving their situations. Like arbitration feelings can get involved during the negotiations.
Watson got the deal he wanted through a sign and trade. It would interesting baseball allowed for sign and trades as part of the CBA. Look at what the Lakers gave up for Kessler, now imaging what we could get out of the Dodgers for a sign and trade with Elly (over losing him as a FA).
Thanks for this response. My hope in making comments like mine above and the one I made yesterday on a different thread is to hopefully get folks who don’t follow US pro sports other than MLB to understand that salary caps are not as uncomplicated as adding up the AAV’s (cap hit of each player) before the start of a season, then letting it rip.
For that matter, even figuring out the AAV for a player isn’t always that uncomplicated.
In the NHL, formal RFA offer sheets are also unusual. However, a huge offer sheet to a player not on the Columbus team that was matched by the player’s original team reset the presumed market for Fantilli, a Columbus player. This led to him getting the richer contract, which put the Blue Jackets into a cap crunch situation.
Sign-and-trade manipulation interests me. It is another cap-driven maneuver that is not typically seen in the NHL nearly as often as in the NBA.
For sure, Jim. Players give up a bit of agency with a cap. However, the rebuilding Jazz traded Kessler for quite a return. Theoretically, if they use their picks wisely, they move out of their rebuild faster, and can sustain it better.Teams can’t do like the Dodgers and just keep adding top talent and small market franchises have little trouble obtaining and keeping top talent. The players benefit by faster growing salaries tied to giving fans games they want to watch. The machinations you mention, are designed to promote parity, which keeps fans across the league engaged. MLB doesn’t have that and fans now realize it.
It’s interesting to note that Brice Turang is projected for 9.5M where as EDLC is 7.9M while they both have nearly identical service time. Brice has more WAR with far better defensive numbers and has only 29 career errors, EDLC has 87 career errors.
I see Jason Williams is now calling for the Castellinis to sell. Although it probably means nothing to Bob and Phil the voices seem to be getting louder.
I think the big profit the Castellinis will take in will eventually get it done.
I think this illustrates two critical points: the arbitration system is badly broken, and the Reds need to negotiate deals with players they want and move on from the others. As for Bleday, he’s racking up a lot of positive press right now. But the guy hit under .200 for most of the season. He looks good on the Reds. He wouldn’t elsewhere.`
JJ Bleday has some offensive talent for the Reds. I think he was “overplayed”, in that he should have gotten more days off….he seemed to respond better after a day off from playing, sometimes two.
If it were my team, I would have traded him in July for something. He is ok, and contributes, but not potential +2-3 WAR player. The Reds need +2-3 WAR players at most positions, with a could of “superstars” that are +4 WAR players.
Did you know that Sal Stewart was only a 1.8 WAR player this year? Pretty crazy, huh? Burleson of St. Louis, their 1st baseman, had more WAR (3.7), despite having fewer HR, a few more RBI’s and a moderately higher batting average?
I would have traded Stephenson too, at the end of July. He will now probably walk and they Reds got nothing for him.
WAR is another “stat” that I don’t care about. I’d take Stewart’s 32HR/112RBIs any day of the week, even if the WAR is negative.
“WAR is another “stat” that I don’t care about. I’d take Stewart’s 32HR/112RBIs any day of the week, even if the WAR is negative.”
Every stat is flawed in some way and this one is definitely flawed for Stewart. lol
I don’t like WAR either. It’s not the most accurate way to judge a player.
Agree on the arbitration system which is why I will not be surprised if it is replaced by some form of restricted free agency (RFA) which is used in the cap systems of the NHL, NBA, and NFL.
The market would set the player’s price, with the original team having the right of first refusal. Teams taking a pass and losing a restricted free agent might or might not regain additional draft pick(s) in upcoming draft(s), depending on how the RFA system is set up.
Keep in mind that the “market” price for RFAs would be tempered by the cap ceiling, and no team could offer an RFA an amount that would put them over the cap.
I’d like a system like that. Just don’t see it happening. I’m not optimistic about 2027 baseball. The owners are out to crush the union to the extent possible.
One of my favorite days with wall-to-wall baseball. Four games of the MLDS’s and noting football in passing.
In normal circumstances, I would say Elly being moved from SS to Right Field…but that would also hinge upon the Reds being savvy.
The franchise we root for is in the doldrums. With no help coming up soon based on various MLB experts.
Move arguably the best shortstop in baseball to right field is certainly one of the ideas that exist.
I’ve been saying for quite a while, with his speed and strong arm, that the natural position for EDLC is in the outfield, but there’s no chance of that happening until he’s with another team.
Elly’s tall so why not move him to 1B?
At the very least move him to power forward.
“At the very least move him to power forward.”
He’s about the size of a point guard these days. haha
He’s got college eligibility left. He can play PF at 6′ 6″ at a lot of schools!
“He’s got college eligibility left. He can play PF at 6? 6? at a lot of schools!”
All kinds of all around talent.
Nobody from the front office has called me yet for my opinion, but I’d keep everyone except Bleday. That’s too steep of a raise for the production he provided. I’d also try to work something out with Suarez, maybe six or eight million for the next two years. No way I’d pick up his option. They’re going to need a catcher too. Craziness.
Six or eight million for EACH of the next two seasons for Suarez. To be clear.
Would you do 10 million for 2 years guaranteed. or maybe 12 million this year and a 10 million player option. I don’t think Geno is going to go down to 6 to 8 million.
I hope the players break the Reds ownership and are forced to sell !
Its just a continued mess as the Reds continue to not get it.Holding on to players past the expiration date in order to get every good at bat or good pitch is where they find themselves.Now of course we are talking about raises due to those players.Outside of Elly and the starting pitching who do you keep?Fishing and cutting bait never works.Regardless of what they do they will have to take the good with the bad from each player and if I have to do that and the Reds do then I go with younger players every time. I spoke my piece on Bleday and McLain above so I will just watch and see.
Yes, they may be adding $24 million if these numbers are correct and they don’t non-tender any of them. And they have to pay Chase Burns $2 million more, too.
However, they are also losing $12.75 million with Singer’s departure (I don’t think either the Reds or Singer want to renew) and $15 million if they don’t re-sign Suarez. Letting Suarez go is a no-brainer to me, because the aging curve is working on him hard and they can them move Stewart to 3B. They also drop $3.8 million by losing Friedl and $5.5 with Pierce Johnson, plus you have to figure that Brock Burke and his $2.3 million is off the books. That’s about $39 million.
They need to replace some of the guys dropped, and either resign Stephenson or sign another catcher, so I think they will have some money to spend. However, they don’t have much by way of prospects to trade, and trading Lodolo would be selling low, so I don’t expect any major trades. There also are not a lot of free agents who jump out as potential signees, other than Stephenson. Maybe there is an Asian player who will fit, but I don’t know why he would pick Cincinnati.
Unfortunately, to a large extent, they are going to have to hope their existing players rebound, their young players develop, and/or that they get lucky with a non-roster invitee.
Also Candy man’s 15 million is off the books except for a 3 million dollar buyout for a net gain of 12 million.
Arbitration is another area where the owners got hosed by the players union negotiators. The fact that you can’t be offered less no matter how poorly you performed, or if you even performed at all, is ludicrous. How owners agreed to that system is a mystery.
Strong disagree, Doc.
Elly De La Cruz has made less than $3,000,000 in base salary in about 3.6 seasons. His “value” in free agent dollars according to Fangraphs has been $158,000,000. The “can’t be offered less” part is an enormous win for the owners given that no matter how well you play in your first 3+ years you can’t make more than league minimum if the owners don’t want you to.
As of today, and no changes made, the lineup might be:
1B Steer 2B Brito SS Elly 3B Stewart C Trevino LF Bleday CF Jorge/Myers RF Rodriguez
SP Burns Lodolo Abbott Lowder Williamson RP Ashcraft Antone Garcia Santillan
Some of this explains why there is Players Union. I think if the owners would give up 2-3 years of arbitration that they might get their Salary Cap. Ridiculous the raises some of these guys are getting for malpractice. Might not bother a bigger market team but $1.5M to $4.5M is a pretty big deal for the Reds. But it is today’s system and the reason Tyler walked away. And Ell being underpaid by about $20M.
When tenure time comes around in a month or so, we are going to find out how committed the front office is to major change. I sure wouldn’t have $16M of my budget going to poor offensive players like Hayes, McLain, and Bleday. Isn’t that one of the core issues with the current version?
Not a player but Sparky Anderson got $28,500 to manage the Reds in 1970. I think my dad had a higher salary as XVP at Husman’s Potato Chips that year.
Accounting for inflation that is $253,000 a year in today’s money for anyone trying to keep track.
Still pretty cheap for arguably one of the best MLB managers ever. Mr. Howsam was tight with his pennies.
If a movie is ever made about Andrew Abbott, he will be played by Jesse Plemons. That is all.
No on Bleday. Let’s put that $$ (and lots more) towards a real MLB power hitting OF. Let Rodriguez take over Bleday’s AB’s. Yes on everybody else. Still too soon to cut bait on Matt. Hopefully, Santillan bounces back. He was great in 2025.