Well, the season is over. Good. It stunk.
There’s all kinds of fingerpointing going on right now about why the Cincinnati Reds stink. And they’re all probably right. Ownership is bad. And no competent person trades for Ke’Bryan Hayes. So I say, “Let them fight!”
Before I really get into this, I really, really hope we can drop all of the “the Reds can’t afford” nonsense. I’ve been arguing this for years but if the recent sale prices of MLB franchises hasn’t convinced you that the owners are lying about what they can afford, then I fear you are lost in a logical labyrinth I am incapable of solving.
Now, let’s enter a fantasy world in which the Reds are willing to do what it takes to compete next year. This isn’t going to happen, but let’s enjoy the intellectual exercise. What would it take?
First, we need to do a brief post-mortem. Everything went wrong this year. Or almost everything. It is kind of difficult to imagine a number of players not bouncing back to some extent, so that will be built into this analysis.
The Lineup
At this moment, only two spots are absolutely spoken for. Short and first. Elly De La Cruz is a superstar and Sal Stewart is good. I do want to caution some of you from overvaluing Stewart here. He’s good, but he’s not Joey Votto. He’s more Sean Casey in terms of overall value unless he takes another big step forward (which is possible). You need guys like Stewart, but first basemen are also supposed to hit, and they generally do. He doesn’t move the needle in the same way De La Cruz does.
I am going to go ahead and make my first controversial statement of the article: The Reds should keep Eugenio Suarez. Third is thin right now around the league. Hayes needs to be cut. Suarez was an average bat this year and, historically, is average-to-good at third. Meaning, if he plays third, he probably gives the Reds average production at the relatively cheap price of $16M. He was miscast as DH this year. And while it’s tempting to try to tear everything down, I’m trying to figure out where I’d keep guys if I were trying to have a good bounce back year. Suarez seems a reasonable enough choice given weakness elsewhere in the lineup.
I would also be looking to extend Tyler Stephenson. Offense is going to be at a premium on this team and while I hope Alfredo Duno is ready sooner rather than later, I’m not banking on it until it happens. And, if need be, Stephenson can be traded. Everyone always needs catching.
There’s also Spencer Steer who was pretty solid, though he still needs to hit more to be genuinely good, but got hurt again. He’ll be around and probably useful. But, ideally, he’s not a starter. He’s the utility guy who gets 450 plate appearances because of guys getting banged up.
That gives us almost half a lineup of guys who don’t need to feel embarrassed when they pick up a bat. What about the rest of the roster?
Well, right now the options at second are Matt McLain and Edwin Arroyo.
The options in the outfield and DH are Hector Rodriguez, Dane Myers, Blake Dunn, JJ Bleday, and Carlos Jorge.
Friends, that ain’t gettin’ it done.
A big problem with Cincinnati in recent years has been the “one of these guys should be decent” approach at certain positions. Sure, one of them should, and sometimes, one of them has been, but it also takes half a season to figure out which one, and by then the Reds are already out of the race. You can play this kind of game at one position. Maybe two. But the Reds keep doing it with half the roster and it needs to stop.
Also, they have pretty much nothing to trade because the farm is not good. So time to make a splash. The Reds need to sign two or three legit bats to think about competing. This is required because of the pitching, which I will get to in a minute.
If I were a sports franchise that could easily be sold for a couple of billion dollars and I wanted to justify my existence, I would go after at least two of Jazz Chisholm Jr., Ian Happ, and Randy Arozarena. Sure, someone might bust, but they all have better track records than recent acquisitions made by the Reds.
A team that’s trying to compete and be worthy of its fans should run out something like this in 2027:
- C – Tyler Stephenson, Jose Trevino
- 1B – Sal Stewart
- 2B – Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- SS – Elly De La Cruz
- 3B – Eugenio Suarez
- Util IF – Matt McLain, Edwin Arroyo
- OF – Hector Rodriguez, JJ Bleday, Ian Happ, Dane Myers
- Util – Spencer Steer
That’s 13 guys and room for someone to get banged up. This team enters spring with probably one outfield position as a true competition and every other spot spoken for. Duno is in waiting, but doesn’t have to be rushed. It’s a group that should hit plenty of homers and generally take advantage of the ballpark. It’s not a perfect lineup, but it’s probably significantly above average.
The Pitching
Well, first things first, the Reds need to sort out the pitching coach situation. I have sympathy for whatever Derek Johnson is going though, but a pitching coach is required.
Beyond that…
- SP 1 – Chase Burns
- SP 2 – Andrew Abbott
- SP 3 – Rhett Lowder
- SP 4 – Nick Lodolo
- SP 5 – Brandon Williamson
And that’s it. There is zero depth if they don’t bring someone in. They will have to bring in at least one starter, and they will have to hope that all of these guys can bounce back because, other than Burns, no one was good in 2026. Which, I will grant you, was shocking. But again, pitching coaches are important.
I’m keeping Abbott at the number two spot and counting on him to bounce back. The other three are going to be counted on to fill one or two other spots in the rotation.
This free agent class has one very big name pitcher and a bunch of other guys who are not inspiring. Cincinnati needs to sign a couple of them. Pick your favorites. But without Greene, they need depth and they need options who can at least keep the team in the game while the lineup hits enough home runs to pull it out.
The bullpen is … jeez … man … I dunno. Those who’ve paid attention to my writing over the years know I HATE trying to guess about relief pitchers. They are so unpredictable. The Reds probably need to spend some money here (and maybe this is a place to trade some marginal prospects for help). But the end result might be as disappointing as it was this year because relief pitchers are basically always the equivalent of leftovers that have been in the fridge for a while and you’re just kind of guessing by smell.
Conclusion
If the Reds are going to be at least interesting next year, it’s going to be as an offensive team that has enough pitching. I hate to say it, but, given that, it might be time for a full turnover in the coaching section since the current group seems to think you can win without scoring runs. Just to be clear about how I think this would work, here’s a lineup with each players career wRC+ and their 2026 wRC+.
- C – Tyler Stephenson (105, 99)
- 1B – Sal Stewart (113, 112)
- 2B – Jazz Chisholm Jr. (108, 98)
- SS – Elly De La Cruz (117, 139)
- 3B – Eugenio Suarez (112, 102)
- LF – Ian Happ (115, 107)
- CF – JJ Bleday (99, 103)
- RF – Hector Rodriguez (82, but he’s a baby)
- DH – Steer (105, 103), but also sometimes Bleday when Myers is in CF. You get the idea.
If this lineup leave you uninspired, it should not. Matt McLain got almost 500 plate appearances this year and posted a 67 wRC+. TJ Friedl, 272 and 43. Hayes, 242 and 13. Noelvi Marte 201 and 47. That’s two everyday spots of playing time that were almost automatic outs. Pulling the whole lineup up to at least average will hugely improve this team.
It will not happen, but remember, no matter what ownership says, all the real information we have says the Reds could do this easily if they wanted to. They just don’t want to.
Um, the one who is lost in a logical labyrinth is someone who thinks the value of a franchise if it were to be sold is even remotely relevant to the liquid assets needed to finance operations day to day. Those two things have literally nothing to do with each other. I’m not saying the Reds ownership couldn’t spend more money. Frankly, none of us know the answer to that. I’m just saying you are the one with the logical disconnect.
Exactly. If they sold the team, they could then afford to spend enough to acquire good players. I’m nearly certain there’s a name for this sort of conundrum.
IMO, if the Reds ownership cannot afford a modest package like Jason proposes, then they cannot afford to be owners of an MLB franchise worth north of $1.5B per Forbes 2026 estimate and should cash out.
This would be the smart business move because 2026 demonstrated they can’t compete at the MLB level, and their investment value is likely to depreciate if they continue to fall so far short. Witness the fall off in attendance in 2026.
If new ownership decided to move the team, so be it. Those of us who feel a connection to its heritage will figure out how to still stream the games. Doug would be in position to be on the ground floor in a better market with RLN and the Reds Minor Leagues. Life would go on.
Whether they should sell the team because they can’t afford to be owners is an entirely different matter than whether the value of the team if sold should equate to more liquid capital to spend on current expenses. The author suggested that the value of the franchise meant they automatically have liquid capital to increase payroll. And that isn’t necessarily true. In fact, short of leveraging the franchise value to take on debt, the two aren’t even related.
The small-market teams having success are not doing so by growing more competitive payrolls. They are doing so by investing in large front office staffs focused on scouting and player development. The Reds’ refusal to follow that path is mind-boggling. The fact that they would have to take on debt or dilute current owners’ investment interest is a reason to fix the broken economic structure in the league, a problem that has lingered for decades and been addressed in other US sports leagues.
@BK
Is there evidence somewhere that the Brewers, Rays, Guardians invest more in player development and scouting, or are they just better at strategic hiring? Or maybe it is both. But do we really know, based on public information?
I am not sure that is why I am asking. They are obviously more effective. But why are they more effective is the question?
Their FOs obviously have a better model in trading expiring contracts and identifying under-the-radar trade targets. But that aside, what makes them better at identifying and developing talent?
“The small-market teams having success are not doing so by growing more competitive payrolls. They are doing so by investing in large front office staffs focused on scouting and player development. The Reds’ refusal to follow that path is mind-boggling.”
Yeah to say the least.
Local ownership is not going to give control to anyone who would move the team from Cincinnati. And I doubt the two old river rivals, St. Louis and Pittsburgh, would approve moving the Reds.
@ATH, multiple national writers have asserted that small-market clubs that succeed are heavily invested in analytics applied to player development and scouting. Here are a couple of examples: one premise of last week’s article by The Athletic noted that Castellini was willing “to skimp on player development,” preferring to use available money on the major league roster. In the article, the statement was made in direct comparison to the Brewers. Also, the Rays have long been known for having a large analytics office. I would encourage anyone to go to MLB’s prospect page and look back a few years on the Brewers, Guardians, and Rays pages and see how many of their prospects are in the majors and having success compared to the Reds. Finally, Jim Bowden directly made this assertion in another Athletic article earlier this month.
I’ve wondered before, but I guess we’re at that time in the season when the writers like to write about what went wrong with teams that underperformed.
Absolutely agree. An emphatic NO on Happ. While he kills the Reds, it will be another “just think what he’ll do in GASP!” He is a strikeout machine and that is the last thing that the Reds need in that lineup now.
“the one who is lost in a logical labyrinth is someone who thinks the value of a franchise if it were to be sold is even remotely relevant to the liquid assets needed to finance operations day to day. ”
I disagree. Liquid assets are easy for a club to obtain as a direct result of the escalation in franchise value. Lenders would form a line that is a mile long to supply capital, no doubt including the existing owner group. So they are tied together.
But obtaining capital for an MLB team is and has never been the problem. No team would have trouble swapping capital for debt, if they chose to.
The dilemma is whether to do that, knowing that increasing liabilities in the form of debt service may increase losses and not increase franchise value.
+1000
If your solution to turn franchise value into liquid capital is to leverage it for debt, that isn’t really a solution. As was mentioned, they can sell the team to someone who has the free capital, but suggesting they take on debt isn’t a rational rebuttal.
And as I said above, an ownership that cannot afford (or chooses not) to take the risks cannot afford to remain owners, because as a group, most other owners are taking risks and moving their product beyond the limits of the Reds owners to compete on the business side and on the field.
It’s not my solution. You are arguing something I was not.
I was rebutting your premise that obtaining capital (liquid assets) is not tied to franchise value. Instead, it is tied directly to it.
See my response above. You missed my point. I don’t disagree that if you can’t afford to fund your team, you should sell it. I was arguing against the incorrect premise in the article that franchise value equates to free capital to fund the operation. And it doesn’t. And frankly, the condescending way the author made that flawed assertion rubbed me the wrong way. And it’s sort of ironic that he is the one lost in the logical labyrinth.
@AllTheHype Of course you can leverage value for debt. I wasn’t suggesting otherwise. But that isn’t what I was discussing. I was addressing the flawed premise in the article. Not that if one makes bad business decisions they can lower the value of their franchise in order to gain capital today. We all understand that is possible. That’s not what the article was suggesting.
@Jim
Most franchises in the Reds situation are not taking more risks than the Reds are currently. They have payroll liabilities similar to the Reds.
It’s a matter of, they are just better at running an organization.
@Luke
“I was arguing against the incorrect premise in the article that franchise value equates to free capital to fund the operation.”
I didn’t conclude the same premise of the article that you did in regard to “free” capital. The article doesn’t seem to assume capital is free.
But your statement stated there is no relevance of liquid assets to franchise value. That is obviously not true. Perhaps you intended to convey something different.
ALLTHEHYPE, lenders would not line up to lend money because of the perceived value. Loans are paid back by cash flow. Investors are more apt to invest based on an expected return from the sale rather than cash flows.
Since we are now the mythical general manager the best moves are trading green and collier to LA for Tibbs and Sheehan. Trading Pittsburgh for Mangum. Trading NY de la Cruz Hayes and Myers for Jones Volpe Dominguez Lagrange and Cade Smith. Signing free agents Arraez Suarez and Stevenson. Trading McLain and Bleday. Non tender Johnson Singer Spiers Solesky and Johnson. Lineup: Mangum Arraez Steward Jones Suarez Rodriguez Stevenson Tibbs Arroyo. Starting Pitchers: Burns Abbott Sheehan Lodolo Lowder. Relief Pitchers: anybody else!
Do you think businesses spend only from cash on hand? Any large business borrows against its value on a yearly basis – this has the additional benefit of being a tax write off. The entire economy is based on borrowing. The Refs could absolutely borrow $40+ million based on the future value of the franchise year after year if they wanted to. It not a zero sum game.
Partially true. Businesses invest with a goal of growing future revenue. Most carefully monitor their investments to ensure they hit target returns. Thus, they mostly invest in assets that are expected to appreciate over time. Few free agent contracts actually end up generating positive value over time. Like with most businesses, most player contracts should be viewed as a payroll expense. Ohtani’s is an example of an exception to the rule, but there aren’t many others like him.
Few businesses borrow to cover operating expenses. In fact, this is almost always a sign that the business model is failing and the company is in trouble. Baseball’s economic model must adjust to give small-market teams a better shot at acquiring talent.
It seems to me, you can borrow to spend on assets (better FAs) which should logically increase revenue through greater fandom. But in a small market the question is can enough new revenue be generated to cover the cost of the borrowing the money. ??? As we see, large market teams can absorb bad FA decisions. Small market teams would have less margin for error.
I’m not sure I see how adding better FAs which might generate marginally more revenue necessarily increases the asset value of the franchise. It seems if revenue increases marginally, asset value would also just increase marginally. I suspect a franchises value is mostly determined by how much a rich person or persons is willing to spend to get it.
that will either increase your revenue and/or increase your total asset value. Having a few better players logically would increase fandom, increasing revenue, but as noted above, unless done absolutely correctly your investment in them With a small market team, increasing your revenue, by having more better players, would increase revenue somewhat (a winning team generates more fans)…its not clear what increases the value of team to any future potential buyer(s).
Ian Happ hits better in GABP against Reds P (ha-ha).
I like Steer at 1B and Stewart at 3B. Elly at SS. TBD at 2B. Trevino C unless Stephenson re-ups. LF Bleday. CF Myers or Jorge. RF Rodriguez. I’m not sure Suarez will return at that price.
I’m not sure Dunn will be recovered enough from TJ surgery to play OF but maybe DH.
Those 5 SP are very good (Burns) and not so good (the other 4).
I do not expect the Reds to sign Happ or Chisholm as FA.
In what world is Suarez worth more or even thinking in his own mind he can get better than the $16 million OPTION they really should just pick up ?? He is NOT
In the current world of MLB, he is. 104 OPS+ with 26 HR and 74 RBI in 125 G this year.
Apparently Happ has told the Cubs he will come back for less money so cut that idea.
Not bad, but gotta do more with that OF, imo. I dont get all the Bleday love. I do love Ian Happ, tho. Rodriguez and Meyers should be alternates.
Happ is 32, and is coming off a less than stellar season. Is he really enough of an improvement over Bleday to make him worth the price?
Yeah, I don’t get the idea of signing Ian Happ….Just because he is available as a free agent? Sounds like Jeimer Candalario…..available and we must sign SOMEBODY. He is on the downside of his career, and will probably command a heft contract.
Not sure about Blake Dunn or Spencer Steer, in terms of actually being physically able to play at a ML level in 2027.
And signing Tyler Stephenson? For how much? The Reds need more at catching than Jose Trevino and Will Banfield.
They really need to sign a good starting pitcher, and rebuild the bullpen…again.
Happ was a 2.9 WAR guy this year to Bleday’s 1.2 WAR. Big time upgrade, but we have to be aware of his strong splits. He’s more of a platoon guy to be honest, but that’s ok because Spencer Steer is too. A nice complement to each other. Bleday is that way too, just to a lesser degree.
Look at Happ’s Ks over the years. Yikes!
“Yeah, I don’t get the idea of signing Ian Happ”
Sign Arraez please and stick him at 2B.
.310/.345/.764
“Look at Happ’s Ks over the years. Yikes!”
The outcome of the “three outcomes” hasn’t worked for the Reds.
I agree, Melvin. The Reds lead, or nearly lead, the league in solo homers. A decent percentage of those homers with men on base would have helped.
Good question, the answer is no, Happ at 32 is not worth adding, he did not have a good year in ’26 and you may be looking at age related decline. No on Arroyo too. I have seen him play, unless he improves significantly with the bat he is a utility player only. Those are dime a dozen and do not move the needle significantly. By all means go after Randy A., hits well, runs well and has been on many winners. No excuse for Reds’ owners, but buying an asset many years ago and seeing appreciation does not mean you have money to burn. Time to upgrade at 2B and 3B, and I do not really think Geno will make it through a season without missing significant time. The statement/paragraph I agreed most with was A big problem with Cincinnati in recent years …………… They continued the entire year with Hays and McLain hoping they would somehow discover how to hit. It was not all on those 2, but the lineup mostly stunk. Maybe Jazz C. would help, power and speed are good things, though I think he is a bit of a diva. Glad that they tried Jorge and Hector in Sept. Part of the discovery process, better now when they knew last place was imminent. Agree too on bullpen, sort of like a box of chocolates. Good luck Reds in ’27, they are going to need it.
“Good question, the answer is no, Happ at 32 is not worth adding,”
Happ = 189 Ks…we don’t need more of that.
Myers i agree but Hector Rodriguez could easily be an everyday player , he’s just got his feet wet
Thanks Jason, it’s good to see a writer actually recognize that bringing Suarez back is the rational thing to do. I don’t think this lineup would be World Series bound but it would be a lot better than what we’ve watched the last few years. And listening to the front office squabble, Krall seems to be a proponent of the defense and pitching solution. That’s the one place that Castellini’s judgement was better. As for the current coaching staff, getting the current roster to simply hit seems like a lost cause. Tito seems to want to play Brewers style baseball and the Reds players think they are the 27 Yankees.
I’d be happy with Reds players thinking they are the 75/76 Reds.
That would work for me. Of course, they’d be hallucinating. A different game obviously, but those guys could hit. The team scored 840 runs, while hitting only 124 HRs for the season. And that was with pitchers batting. Four .300 hitters starting. Morgan performing beyond anyone the Reds have today, including EDLC. By contrast, today’s Reds hit 213 HRs and scored only 666 runs. EDLC’s 142 OPS+ was great, but shy of Morgan’s 169. The 75 Reds had 6 starters over 100 with the low guy at 88. So do today’s Reds, though the average OPS+ was much lower. Unfortunately, the remainder of the lineup under 100, ranged from 69 to 17. The Dodgers have spent tons of money, and I don’t think they’ve fielded a team yet that would win the season series against the Reds. They may win the World Series again this year. But I’m pulling for the Brewers.
I don’t like the Brewers or the Phillies. I’m pulling for a Braves/Rays World Series.
As good as the 75/76 Reds were, they started out 20-20 in 1975. Then Sparky moved Rose to 3B, Foster & Driessen platooned in LF, and the rest of the lineup stayed where they were. Of course, Foster took over LF eventually.
41 WAR by the batters (excluding P who also batted then). One of the best WAR totals in MLB history.
Vukovich was benched in May but almost had a career best year (-0.1 WA and .211 BA, his best ever). He and Rose played together on 1979-80-81 Phillies. I saw both play in 23-22 game at Wrigley Field in 1979.
“Tito seems to want to play Brewers style baseball and the Reds players think they are the 27 Yankees.”
Speaking of the Brewers out of respect for how they do things and for what they’ve accomplished I’ll be rooting for them in the playoffs. I might even watch some post season without the Reds. I doubt the ownership and front office feel the same way though. They look bad enough already. 🙂
Anyone beats the Dodgers. I’ll never root for the Dodgers.
The Brewers have been excellent at getting to the playoffs but have only won 1 AL pennant (1982) and 0 WS since 1970. Even the Reds have done better than that.
I also want Geno back. He was pretty solid the 2nd half.
I feel that for something most of us feel would be a logical approach for substantially fixing the Reds, ownership needs to be engaged enough replace Krall with an outside baseball guy they say they’ll listen to since they don’t listen to Krall. With that as additional context, I agree 100% with cutting Hayes as a way to signal you’re serious about fixing the team. I’d like to sign Geno for a couple of years and TySteve for a few to give Duno time. Beyond that I’d leave it up to the new exec to decide on the FA options to fill as many starting line-up holes as possible – yours are good suggestions (certainly getting Happ and not having him hit our pitching is a top priority!). And we need another SP (Nick Martinez has a mutual option with TB we could outbid).
I think Martinez liked pitching for the Reds. Letting him go was a mistake.
Easy to say after watching him pitch a whole season in Tampa but NO ONE yourself included was saying or thinking it this past offseason .. It was get a power bat or two , please ! Never , ya gotta keep Martinez SMH Hindsight is 20/20 GREAT
“NO ONE yourself included was saying or thinking it this past offseason”
@J, Not true:
“Krall, according to people briefed on his thinking, wanted to spend on a pitcher, specifically free agent Nick Martinez, a valuable member of the team in 2024 and ’25. But the moment the Reds lost Schwarber to the Philadelphia Phillies at the winter meetings, ownership instructed him to pursue a power hitter, saying fans liked home runs.”
Ken Rosenthal and C. Trent Rosecrans
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7622943/2026/09/24/cincinnati-reds-castellini-ownership-front-office/
@J not true as I wanted Reds to sign Martinez as he added depth they needed.
Reds Whiffed not signing Nick
They will need to overpay for TySteve for a couple of years until Dunno is determined to be ready. They cannot go into the year with Trevino as the starter, and the FA maket at C is dead. The bottom of the lineup is bad enough, but adding Trevino there for 125 games will make it a deeper darker hole than it already is.
“They will need to overpay for TySteve for a couple of years until Dunno is determined to be ready. ”
I reiterate, there is no reason the Reds can’t carry TWO decent catchers especially with the DH. They NEED Stephenson. If they lose him they will find out just how much they need him when it’s too late.
@ Bob Purkey
You nailed it when you said the Free Agent market for catchers is dead. Tyler Stephenson is not a reincarnation of Johnny Bench, but will command a lot because he might be the only decent Free Agent catcher out there this year. Somebody will pay him a lot, probably over pay, to get him. And it won’t be the Reds, unless he is willing to give them a Home Town discount….which I sincerely doubt.
It’s Duno boys. Just one N.
Some Dunno that (LOL).
mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa!
I think C Ryan Jeffers would be a nice addition.
.256 Average, 14 HR 56 RBI .353 On Base %, .814 OPS
Thoughts?
Good C. He should fetch $15 to $20M per year as FA.
Not much better than Ty Steve. He is only slightly younger so he will command probably a longer and more expensive contract than TY Steve. He is not known as a plus defender.
This path makes sense. I suggested something similar too—surround your stars with league average competence. That alone would be a huge upgrade and entirely plausible. Spotrac has the Reds at ~$146mil this year and ~$91mil in commitments for 2027. So yeah, with some $60mil (or more with a salary floor) to spend, they can fill a lot of holes. For that reason I’m cautiously optimistic next year won’t be over before it starts.
Steer was a gold glove finalist a few years ago. Yes, his hitting needs to improve. With that being said, I would like to see Steer at 1B and move Stewart to 3B.
I don’t think we should re-sign Suarez, however Nathaniel Lowe was doing very well as a part-time 1B and DH. You could get him cheap.
As far as outfield goes, I like Bleday, but a .215 BA is not good enough.
Rodriguez and Myers are keepers, too.
Yes.
Steer 1B…platoon with Lowe
Stewart 3B
Bleday is slightly better when he doesn’t face lefties. So platoon him.
Not sure what you mean saying steer is hurt, again??? The guy averaged played 156, 158 and 146 games over the three prior seasons. I am concerned about recovery, but don’t question his durability.
I
+1
I don’t know if the ‘what they can afford’ is anything but a distraction. The author’s plan revolves around known players, keeping most of them, adding a little Jazz music and assuming that the rest of it is available at Sam’s Free Agency club. In an acknowledged phrase: Titanic, deck chairs, better use of floor space.
OK, known players are the guys we are discussing because they are the guys who got us here. That sentence is not cryptic.
Roster upheaval? Not likely. Nobody does this because the other 29 teams won’t all go along with it.
Summary: We can keep discussing this until the end of eternity. The problems all revert back to the people who are in charge, and frankly, they are messing it up so badly in development as to be a gigantic cloud of methane.
We can’t evaluate the Reds organization without realizing that it’s dead in the water starting at Louisville and working backward to the Arizona leagues.
Rebuild this mess, and stop pretending that moving Suarez to 3rd base is even remotely part of a solution.
Adding Ian Happ just makes me allllllllllll giddy. Seriously? This is not about the batting order.
And claiming bullpens are unpredictable is not exactly the result of a deep dive research project. Find 50 guys, see if 8 of them can pitch.
Look, the effort is legit and the article is organized and bent on making sense of what we think we know. But this is not how the Reds are going to get better. They need to fix their development strategy so that the draft picks they sign don’t spend 5 years turning into Rece Hinds. Get the younger players closer to the majors before they are past the sell-by date.
I am having a real tough time blaming this on Matt McLain.
“There’s all kinds of fingerpointing going on right now about why the Cincinnati Reds stink. And they’re all probably right. Ownership is bad. And no competent person trades for Ke’Bryan Hayes. So I say, “Let them fight!”
haha I like that. 🙂
Reds 3B starter has been unproductive since Brandon Drury in 2022.
Primary starter in 2023 was 0.0 WAR. Starter (different than 2023 but same player both years) in 2024 was -0.4 WAR and -1.4 WAR in 2025. The starter in 2026 was -0.7 WAR.
Reds starting 3B is -2.5 over the past 4 years.
The Reds will not be getting either Happ or Jazz
I agree with this statement. Happ is telling the Cubs he will take less to stay. I doubt Jazz wants to come to Cincy.
I doubt that there is anything the Reds can do to right the ship in one off season, even if they had a competent front office and an owner who spends like a drunken sailor.
It is going to take multiple off seasons to fix this mess and then it’s going to take a great plan that is well executed and has the support of ownership.
For those things to happen you are asking Nick Krall and Bob Castellini to become different people.
Yes, all true. I think where folks disagree is the immediate path forward. A full rebuild, while appropriate given the last place finish, doesn’t have the pieces in place (ownership, front office) to conduct one properly. So I guess the responsible path would be to patch as many holes as possible with the not insignificant dollars available and bide our time until the minors replenish, Jorge/Duno/Brito/HRod boom or bust, and Bob C. becomes too incapacitated to meddle and is forced to pass the torch. Kinda feels like the end stages of the Carl Lindner era.
Agree, Sultan, especially with the Lindner end-stage part.
Yesterday I was focused on NHL drama, since it was the day season-opening rosters were due, and all sorts of finagling was going on to get teams under the salary cap on paper.
Today, I have been reading explanations for laymen of why certain things went down the way they did, when they did.
In the middle of this, the thought exploded into my mind that there is no way this Reds front office and ownership are up to operating in the salary cap world if the MLB cap rules are anywhere near as tight and intricate as the NHL cap rules.
Even if they brought in an outside cap guru, they wouldn’t be able to stay out of the guru’s way or operate with the required level of precision and timing.
The team that many consider to be the best Cap team in the NFL is the New Orleans Saints–one of the smallest market teams in the league. My long-standing desire to see a better economic model is not to find a CBA that favors the Reds or any team. Rather, the goal should be to allow each team a roughly equal chance at building their franchise with their preferred roster and strategy. Small-market teams manage the cap systems in other leagues just fine. Frankly, a cap-based system likely better fits the Reds’ managing partner’s preference to prioritize their big-league roster each season.
@BK, Yes “small market teams” in other sports may manage salary caps as well or better than most. But this particular (Reds) front office and owner combo has proven themselves to be abolutely ham fisted at managing anything that requires communication, coordination, and timing skills.
No argument there. But from what I learned last week, we now know where the problem lies–squarely at the top.
“No argument there. But from what I learned last week, we now know where the problem lies–squarely at the top.”
The problem has always for the most part lied squarely at the top. That does not in any way give the front office a pass. They are a mess too.
I said this in a prior post and apparently it got moderated out, although I’m not sure why because far worse is accepted on this page.
Quite simply, ownership doesn’t want to win. They want to make money. If they can win while making money then great, but its not the focus.
And as long as people keep supporting them it won’t ever change. I’d love to see any evidence that they are truly interested in winning baseball…they had money for Schwarber thinking he’d sell tickets but not for anyone else. That’s not someone who wants to win.
Reds are going to need to add a solid veteran SP ( or 2?) to give innings and depth to support Burns/Abbott/Williamson/Lodolo/ Lowder.
Two interesting names to watch in the playoffs and neither should command frontline starter $$$$ in FA.
Nick Martinez leads baseball in walks/9 inning at 1.3- Thats for Dennis. Hes been a master craftsman on the mound and will be pitching for the Rays. Martinez is likely to start Game 2 or 3 with Freddy Peralta the other after the wild card round in the ALDS.
Old Friend Tyler Mahle has come out of nowhere after being traded from the Giants and has an ERA of 1.99 in his 9 starts with the Braves. He has skyrocketed up the Braves SP depth chart and is the game 2 starter for the Braves tomorrow against the Phillies.
Id start with acquiring quality SP in the FA market as step 1.
Getting a starting pitcher to come to our small ballpark who is good at pitching is a tough task. I think it would either require a higher annual salary or extra years of salary or player options.
The Reds might have $60MM to spend in free agency, but the wealthy teams have more. If a player is worth having on a team, he will go to the highest bidder. The Reds will still lose out to the higher bidders.
You’re not factoring in raises for existing players.
Elly is probably +12M (min) over 2026
Hunter is +7M
Abbott is probably +3M
Steer, Lodolo, Santillan, Bleday, Ashcraft, Myers, Antone, Williamson will all get arbitration raises.
My arm-chair moves.
Try one more time to build around Elly before he is gone. If 2027 (if we play it) is a bust, look to trade him for a HUGE package (and only a huge package).
keeps: Burke, Geno, Pagan, re-sign TySeve to a 3 year contract back-loaded with more money in the last year in case Alfredo Duno makes it to the Reds sooner than later. Have them catch one year together in a mentor-mentee relationship, then trade TS is Duno kills it. (and as someone who has seen Duno multiple times, I am a believer in both hitting and catching–don’t know why so many people want him off catching). TS wants to be back it surely seems.
adds: Luis Arraez for 2B (his OBP in front of Elly and Sal would be a breath of fresh air. Sign a middling starting pitcher or two (coming off an injury or foreign league) as a backup plan/5th starter-ish/swing man. I love the idea of Nathanael Lowe coming back as DH/1B option. Yes, please.
deletes: Both McLain and Marte need a change of scenery. Trade them to a team that has the same scenario–change of scenery candidate. See who is out there (preferably pitchers that need a change of scenery).
DFA Hayes and eat his contract—cut your losses.
Platoons:
Bleday & Steer in LF (with Steer also doing some utility work)
Myers & Carlos Jorge in CF (if Carlos continues to progress)
Dunn will not be ready but could be in the mix later in the year. Brito has shown enough to get a look and if Arraez doesn’t work, give him a shot at 2B. Cabrera is there just in case neither work out.
1B: Sal Stewart
2b: Luis Arraez
SS: ELDC
3B: Geno Suarez
C: Ty Steve
RF: Hector Rodrguez (firm believer in him that he will continue to the next level)
CF: Myers (maybe Jorge in a platoon)
LF: Bleday & Steer
DH: Nathanael Lowe
bench: Jorge?, Brito, Cabrera, Trevino
I like your plan with catching.
Ty for 3 years, splitting time in year 3 if Duno can emerge.
Yes on Arraez
No on same OF guys as last this year
I know he is getting pretty high in age in baseball terms, but what about George Springer. He has decent numbers this year. I can’t imagine he will cost a ton either. I don’t know if his defensive numbers are at least average or not.
.249 Average, 15 HR, 54 RBI, .321 On Base, .726 OPS in 462 at bats.
Thoughts?
@Jason, aside from your snarky and unsupported assertions in your opening section, I’d be happy to see the Reds execute your plan. Personally, I would prefer Luis Arraez over Jazz Chisholm.
As for franchise values, third parties assess the Reds (and many other small-market clubs) as having largely stagnant values when adjusted for inflation over the last five to six years.
I’ll also note that the “floors” in the initial proposals by both MLB and the MLBPA are nearly identical when adjusted to include the same expenses. This is insightful for a couple of reasons: (1) both sides have actual access to each club’s audited financial statements–the public can only view the Braves with specificity. (2) Both sides proposed increased revenue sharing to enable small-market clubs to reach the “floor.” The MLBPA attempted to reduce revenue sharing during negotiations of the current CBA. Their change in position reflects the reality that many small-market teams can’t hit the floor without additional revenue. One final note: these facts were released publicly by the MLBPA, which held widely covered press conferences to discuss both sides’ proposals in May–all of this is easily verifiable for anyone looking for ground truth on an issue that is always front and center to the Reds offseason plans.
Don’t disagree at all Jason but as you said they won’t do what most seem to think is the obvious thing to do.My issue is if its pitching and defense first then that didn’t work out well at all.I said this before and will again what kind of defensive strategy is it to move Steer to left and Sal to first.Steer was a gold glove finalist and Sal a rookie has only played a handful of games at first in the minors.I get it that Hayes was not going to be moved but in doing so they weakened two positions.The pitchers continue to walk hitters at an alarming rate and it didn’t just start this year.Pitching and defense first I think not.Throw in hitters that swing and miss while trying to teach I guess the oppo approach is not working either.In what world do you acquire Geno who I love and put him in a lineup that you are trying to get to hit the ball the other way.Only way he doesn’t pull a pitch is if he is late on a pitch.This organization is not on the same page at all from the top down to the field.No direction no buy in its just so lets say dysfunctional.Leadership says to do this.players can’t or won’t,BOGO blames the owner.Its just a mess.Jason again your thoughts and ideas and plans are better then what I expect the Reds to do but I do appreciate them.Thank you.
BOGO replaced by POBO or something close to that.
The Reds hit better and scored more runs when they were using the oppo approach. Once they abandoned it, the averages dropped, and the runs stopped scoring.
Geno used to have right-center field power, until he turned into a 3 outcome guy, in his final 2 years before being traded to Seattle
I don’t really see Ian happ being much help for reds. Half or more of his success seems to come against our pitching?!?! Take that out of the equation…tho he does seem to hit well at Great American. But he must be 63 yrs old by now seems like he’s been killing the reds for a long long time…
The Reds can afford to pay almost anyone. I have no idea why some fans go to great lengths to defend ownership’s pecuniary ways. These people promised a championship 20 years ago. They are liars.
Penciling in Lodolo as a starter is assuming that he’ll miss many starts. That’s just who he is. Who else can the Reds get to gain effective pitching depth?
Almost anyone doesn’t want to play in Cincinnati. Why would they?
Sean Murphy, a better catcher worse hitter than Tyler will make $15 million the next couple years as a backup in Atlanta. So what does that make a Stephenson contract look like.
If anyone is going to get the Qualify Offer it should be Stephanson. Get him for 1 year and hope that Duno is ready to go. I like my Jeffers idea (see above) for catcher.
There are several OF options out there that probably wouldn’t mind coming to Cincy to hit in our small ballpark. As proven in the past it won’t be top tier free agents. Think one solid OF but not an all-star. (unless a miracle happens).
I may reconsider my opinion that they won’t make any QOs. I’d overlooked the draft pick that is tied to them. TySteve may have the best market to look into, and some team will certainly consider a multi-year/big $$$ offer, regardless or in spite of also losing a draft pick. If he accepts, so much the better and it supplants having to get a FA to replace him – so it won’t have much budget impact to the Reds. For a single season it’s a large amount, but they have so much else coming off the budget, and they’re so far in a hole it’s worth it either way.
They’re not making offers to Singer or Burke, since each would accept it, and neither would likely command a similar offer elsewhere. Too much risk.
That projected outfield still does not inspire very much. I feel like Happ is one of those signings the Reds would make where they’d give him a good amount when his best years were probably behind him. Still few players to hit for average in that lineup. They actually had power this past year. The free agent class this year, boy seems like no definite very good hitters…but it seems like a gamble with almost every free agent these days.
Stewart is pretty streaky at times…kind of amazing he had 111 RBIs with how streaky he is. I can understand some thinking he’s just a slightly above average hitter, but he didn’t have a whole lot of great hitting around him outside of De la Cruz. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of 2nd full year he has.
Move Sal to 3rd, Steer at 1st. I like Brito/McLain platoon maybe at 2nd. McLain in late innings for defense. Jorge looked good in CF and with his speed, can be the leadoff hitter. Bring back Stephenson, Suarez, Burke, Antone and Pagan. Maybe sign Arozarena or Teoscar Hernandez for a LF bat. Need 1 or 2 starters behind Burns. Sonny Gray??? Reds have to dump Hayes at all cost! Can’t be in the lineup and too expensive for just late innings defense! Rodriguez is gonna be a stud in RF??
Agree with a lot of your comment. Reds are going to have to eat Hayes contract regardless of whether he plays with Reds or not. It’s hard to expect McLain to do much better now as his 2023 year was the aberration since he was drafted, not the other way around. I might concede one last hope for him in that he could modify his hitting stance over the winter to stand considerably closer to the plate so that his short arms can cover the outside corner of the plate. A byproduct would be having better look at those pitches off the plate and subsequently lay off them. Should McLain fail to do this perfect this over the winter then he has to become strictly a backup infielder. Since the roster only has room for one hitless defensive wizard it would have to be McLain.
McLain also has options left to be sent down to AAA and he can also play all over the field including the outfield. As far as KBH, he’s played a total of five innings at SS in 2022 and that’s it other than 3B. As bad of a hitter as McLain has been he’s much better than Hayes (it’s hard for a hitter to be as bad as KBH).
The article below gives the teams that employ 20+ analytics and systems full time employees … as of 6/2023. Tampa Bay had the most (39), followed by the Yankees (36), and Dodger s(31)…Milwaukee had 22 and Cleveland 21. Reds didn’t make the list, though Richar Fitch in his post a few days ago said the Reds had 20 on board in 2018.
https://fourringssports.com/sports-analytics-drive-winning/
The article below, dated 8/2023, lists the R&D staff numbers for each major league team. The top 3 are the same as above, Tampa (44), Yankees (43) , Dodgers (35). The Reds are listed at 10th with 28. Cleveland listed at 30 and Milwaukee at 21. Now these are two different sources and the Milwaukee numbers don’t quite make sense. And it’s not clear how R&D staff differ from analytic and systems personnel.
I think the take away is the Reds do invest in R&D…more than many other teams. Of course, are they any good at it. ???
https://x.com/eboland11/status/1722665524155629909?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1722665524155629909%7Ctwgr%5E27de831c29b8e003f9bf16fda7640e38e318e9f4%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.outkick.com%2Fsports%2Fnew-information-reveals-just-how-full-of-it-yankees-gm-brian-cashman-was-on-analytics
You look at the Brewers who just keep on keeping on, and the White Sox who lost 121 games in 2024 and finished 5th in their division last year, but are know in the playoffs. Seems like the Reds need better individuals running things.