On Sunday the Cincinnati Reds 2026 season came to an end with a 5-1 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. That loss dropped the club to 75-87 on the season. They finished in last place in the National League Central division. It was the worst record since they went 62-100 in 2022 and the second worst record (tied with the 2019 club) since the failed rebuild run from 2015-2018 when they were worse in each of those seasons.
A whole lot of things went wrong for Cincinnati in 2026. We’re not going to focus on that right now, though we will be looking back at nearly everything here at Redleg Nation during the offseason – however long that lasts with the potential for a lockout extending the offseason time. But it’s fair to say that the season was a disappointing one and that what happens before the start of the next season is going to be key.
The Reds have three players who are free agents after the World Series. Pitchers Brady Singer and Brock Burke, as well as catcher Tyler Stephenson will all become free agents unless Cincinnati makes them a qualifying offer (and it’s accepted).
The team also has three options to work with that could lead to free agency. Third baseman Eugenio Suarez has a $16,000,000 mutual option. Reliever Pierce Johnson also has a mutual option for $8,000,000 and there’s a $1,000,000 buyout if the Reds decline their side. Closer Emilio Pagan has a $10,000,000 player option for 2027.
All of that could leave Cincinnati with six players leaving to free agency. Some of those players will be tougher to find replacements for than others. It wouldn’t be surprising to see all six on another team next year.
With or without those players, though, the Reds have a lot of needed improvement from this year’s squad. Barry Larkin spoke to it during the last home game of the year. Joey Votto has spoken of it for much of September on various platforms. The comments section here at Redleg Nation has been breaking keyboards and phones and tablets typing so hard about it for months. And it appears that even some in the front office for the club know it’s needed and are pointing fingers.
The pitching on the team was bad in 2026. Take out Chase Burns and the rotation was hilariously bad. The bullpen had two sets of guys. A handful were quite good. But if you weren’t in that group you fell into the group of very, very bad relievers. And there were a lot of guys that cycled through that group throughout the season.
The offense wasn’t really any better. You had Elly De La Cruz playing like an MVP candidate and finishing with the 5th best OPS in the National League. There was Sal Stewart hitting 32 home runs and driving in 111 while being an above-average bat. And then there was one other guy who had 100 hits on the team, and he hit .217 on the year. There two guys who were all-around good to elite level hitters on the team and then a few guys who were solid, but very flawed hitters who weren’t quite every day players, and then a bunch of guys who struggled to hit the ball out of a wet paper bag.
The front office has to find a way to find starting pitchers. They need to find a way to add more hitters. There’s a need for better relievers and they may have to replace their closer on top of that. No one really knows what the league is going to look like from a financial standpoint next season. But Cincinnati has a lot of money coming off of the books. Some of that will be accounted for in some raises due to players that will be returning, but there should still be a good chunk of money to go out and spend even if payroll remains roughly the same as it was this past season.
If the plan is to compete or try to in 2027, then it’s likely going to have to happen by bringing in talent in free agency. There’s not exactly much to trade from at the big league level that would accomplish both bringing in real talent while also not trading away elite talent. It’s a tough sell to say you can compete in 2027 if you trade away a Chase Burns, an Elly De La Cruz, or a Sal Stewart. No one else is going to bring back the kind of talent infusion the team needs.
But the farm system also stinks for the most part. The team’s top prospect is Alfredo Duno, who is a catcher, which is a position that the Reds need to fill. He’s probably not going to be ready to take over the position at the start of next season – he’s only played in 32 games at the Double-A level (where he hit .322/.406/.488) and he’s 20-years-old. But it’s tough to see how trading him makes sense given the organizational need, the lack of any other catching options on the farm that look like anything more than maybe a potential backup catcher for the next several years, and how close Duno is.
Maybe you could get some solid returns for the big league team by trading away some good prospects you have that are in the lower levels. The Reds do have some of those kinds of players where they have the upside teams like, but those guys are also very far away and teams will be somewhat hesitant to give up high end talent to help a big league team for those kinds of guys. Not impossible, though, and we have seen it happen in the recent past.
All of that to say that the front office has a whole lot on their plate. They are going to need to get creative, be smart, and probably make a ton of moves between the end of the World Series and the start of the next baseball season if they want that season to be any different than the one they just suffered through.
Joey Votto will be on NBC’s playoff coverage team
On Sunday night NBC announced their playoff crews and that Joey Votto will be one of the five people, along with Matt Vasgersian, John Kruk, Ashley ShahAhmadi, and C.J. Nitkowski on NBC’s crew during the National League Wild Card series between the NL East champion Atlanta Braves and wild card Philadelphia Phillies. All three (if necessary) games will be played at 2pm ET on NBC and Peacock. The games will be played on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday – all in Atlanta.
There isnt enough Super Glue in the world to piece this mess together. Hot Stove season seems to be the happiest time of the year around Reds Country these days. It always ends up with disappointment behind rose colored glasses and the mask of hope and wishful thinking.
And top it all off with a whole bunch of “if this player” …..
Dollars to doughnuts, all six FA or potential FA leave. I can’t why any would stay unless they have no other offer(s).
The Reds have few trade chips. The Reds have few prospects MLB ready at AAA or AA level. The Reds are hardly a top destination for the best FA available.
The Reds have won 5 division titles, 1 pennant, and 1 WS in the last 50 years (1977 to 2026). The Reds won 5 division titles, 5 NL pennants, and 2 WS in the prior 25 years (1952 to 1976). The Reds had a great run in my youth. The Reds have not since then.
Nope. The Reds are 33-40 (45%) when Hayes starts. The Reds are 75-87 (46%) overall. 45 and 46 are pretty similar numbers.
The Reds are 23-45 (34%) when Hayes doesn’t or (mostly) cannot play due to being on IL. MLB has this rule that players on IL cannot play in games or be blamed for L during that timeframe.
The Reds are 52-42 (55%) when he does play.
Oops. Reply in wrong place.
“The front office has to find a way to find starting pitchers. They need to find a way to add more hitters. There’s a need for better relievers and they may have to replace their closer on top of that.”
Besides that they’re set and ready to go in 2027. 🙂
It’s a beautiful mess!
LOL. The Reds P had 26 WAR in 2025 and made playoffs. The Reds P had 9 WAR in 2026 and did not.
Reds batters had about 9 WAR in both years (2025 and 2026).
Interesting. The hitting side seems counterintuitive.
So, you are saying there is a chance?
There also a chance it will be 80 degress on pikes peak on Christmas Day.
The chances for this are slim and one.
The FO is terrible.
No accountability, and cheap ownership.
C. Trent’s article is free. For all those touting Hayes, the numbers on him were abysmal. On a team this bad, he still found a way to be the worst player on the team. And his defense, while still above average, was nowhere near elite. The Reds aren’t willing to spend what it takes to make this team competitive.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7637634/2026/09/27/reds-2026-season-by-the-numbers-mlb/?unlocked_article_code=1.EVE.n7xd.LzwITJhZEzs6&source=emp_shared_article&smid=ta-ios-share
He ended up with a .141 BA. But hey, according to Chatterbox Reds (chuckling) his BA went up to .159 with Runners In Scoring Position. Talk about clutch hitting. 😀
Getting Ke’Bryan Hayes was sort of typical Nick Krall move, a real half-baked compromise move that both cost money and actually reduced the value of the team’s ability to deliver Wins Above Replacement. I am sure that Hayes actually has negative WAR.
The Reds first need is pitching, as is their second and third need. They don’t need to go out and get somebody to play 3rd base, they already have a couple of candidates available.
At the very least, they need a really solid starter. There is Chase (who may not have the same year in 27 as he did in 26). And the rest. Will Abbott regress more, or bounce back? Will Lowder be better in 2027, if he can stay healthy the whole season?
Lodolo and Williamson are wild cards (do the Reds need 3 left handed starters?). There is likely no one to help from the Minors in 2027.
Get rid of all the players who contribute little that have gotten plenty of chances to prove themselves.
And yet Hayes had only 9 RBI??? Huh
“And yet Hayes had only 9 RBI??? Huh”
Is that bad? 😀
Waiting for the Old Timer to chime in here
You know that Hayes was not THE reason the Reds were bad in 2026. They were 52-42 (55%) when he played, 33-40 (45%) when he started, and 23-45 (34%) when he didn’t play. The % are rounded.
The Reds were 75-87 (46%) overall.
The Reds were 26-24 (52%) when he went on IL in May, starting many of those games. The Reds were 42-50 (46%) when he returned. They were 16-26 (38%) without him.
Hayes -0.7 WAR in 244 PA. Friedl -1.0 WAR in 272 PA. Marte -1.5 WAR in 201 PA. Arroyo -0.7 WAR in 150 PA. McLain -0.6 WAR in 496 PA. Singer -0.6 WAR in 31 games as SP. Santillan -0.9 WAR in 44 games as RP.
The Reds P stunk in 2026. The Reds P didn’t (with different names) in 2025. About 26 WAR in 2025. About 9 WAR in 2026. Both WAR are rounded.
Ask and you shall receive, Jesse. lol!
So, only crediting KBH when the team wins, which was not enough. Overlooking the evidence and pointing blame on other players. Check. Installing the mute button.
The win/loss record when Hayes is in the lineup is absolutely, positively meaningless. The Reds were 75-87 when Stewart started. Maybe they should trade him and start Hayes every game. Had they done that then clearly, they would have finished 89-73 and bumped Philadelphia from the playoffs.
Nope. The Reds are 33-40 (45%) when Hayes starts. The Reds are 75-87 (46%) overall. 45 and 46 are pretty similar numbers.
The Reds are 23-45 (34%) when Hayes doesn’t or (mostly) cannot play due to being on IL. MLB has this rule that players on IL cannot play in games or be blamed for L during that timeframe.
The Reds are 52-42 (55%) when he does play.
LDS, I have never agreed with one of your comments more than this one.
The constant argument that Hayes is good for the Reds based on W/L record is beyond dumb.
He will never stop with this stupid irrelevant stat. They were 26-24 when he went on the il. Yeah so did half the bullpen and the starting rotation. Keep telling us this great stat that no else believes in but you. 52-45 when he played, yeah that’s because he came in the 9th inning and stand at 3rd base for 3 outs. Just stop please.
He played 21 games for late inning defense. 19-2.
He started 73 games at 3B. 33-40 (45%)
The Reds were 75-87 (46%) overall.
The Reds were 23-45 (34%) when Hayes didn’t play.
Sister Sophie says 45% and 46% are pretty similar.
RIP Sister Sophie. You tried. Not everyone advances past 4th grade math.
Kind of the only reason to keep following the team in general is his tireless work on this thread.
Sister Sophie says both of you are clueless if you want the worst player in MLB to be your starting 3rd baseman then you guys are part of the problem. Stat- meaningless!
If that were the argument, it would indeed be dumb. The argument is that the Reds were so generally bad in so many ways that the fixation on him as scapegoat is just a diversion.
The calculation involved in identifying the worst player in MLB is more complex than ranking batting averages. Hayes had a down year across the board, but was still above average defensively. For his career he has been one of the very best fielding 3rd basemen to ever play the game. I understand that valuing defense is not a popular position here, but it is valued by players, managers and coaches.
We all know there were tons of other reasons they were bad. But fixation is by OT to keep reminding of us about some silly stat because Hayes plays or he doesn’t. My point is that this team has limited resources as it is, so you go out and trade for a guy that can’t hit and has a bad back at at a cost of 60 million dollars, that’s the point. If the pirates really thought he was so valuable they would of never traded him inside their own division. That’s my obsession it’s a horrible contract for a terrible player. The other players have options and are easy to get rid of. Is that good enough for you.
“If that were the argument, it would indeed be dumb. The argument is that the Reds were so generally bad in so many ways that the fixation on him as scapegoat is just a diversion.”
GMT, 100% agree Hayes is a small part of the Reds’ many issues. I’ve always felt you’re the most level-headed poster on this site. I agree with the heavy majority of your comments/observations. But… I’ll disagree with this comment for one big reason: OT keeps posting the same meaningless stat over and over and over and over and over spouting the stat of W-L record of when Hayes has been in games. This IS the main point of his argument, as he has shown post after post.
And the gadfly has arrived and his personal cheerleader is now with him.
Sister Sophie would like to remind her former pupil that while she is proud of his ability to perform arithmetic, she requests absolution for your inability to apply logic or quantitative analysis. Further, she reminds RLN posters that both of those skills were taught after fourth grade and that she will happily smack Oldtimer’s knuckles with a ruler if he continues to blame her for his tiresome posts. However, she commends his charite, though not his tactics, if he’s simply trolling everyone to help Doug get more revenue-generating hits on his site.
Reds are 19-2 When Hayes comes in as a late inning replacement.
Hard stop right there. Reds are 17 over .500 when Hayes plays late innings for a few outs without playing the first 7 or 8 innings and the Reds winning.
Just looking at Baseball Savant in September, Reds were 5-0 when Hayes did not the start but came into the game after the Reds were winning with a few outs to go.
Baseball Savant does Winning probability stats at every out of the game. Here are the winning probability % for each game based upon when Hayes entered the game.
Sept 13 Reds 4-3 over brewers. Win probability 69%
Sept 16 Reds 6-2 over Dodgers. Win probability 97.7%
Sept 18 Reds 6-4 over Cubs. Win probability 96%
Sept 22 Reds 4-0 over Braves. Win probability 92.5%
Sept 26 Reds 5-1 over blue jays. Win probability 95.6%
Hayes late inning usage is a marker for a Reds win, not the reason. In one of the 5 games this month, he caught a foul pop. Other than that, was not involved. Baseball Savant has a top 3 WPA graphic ( winning percentage added) for 3 players in a game. Hayes WPA is nil.
Come on guys, OT knows that stat is meaningless. I know that because when he posted his 2027 starting line up a few days ago he had Sal Stewart as the starting 3B. KBH was no where to be found. He argues KBH is not the main problem, even though no one has suggested that he is. He likes attention, which doesn’t bother me at all. But it is kinda sad actually. I hope you have a great off season OT.
Does he really think that stat is meaningless? If so, why bring it up MANY times on every story comment section. KBH is his new Luke Weaver. He went on and on about him the same way while he was a terrible reliever for the Reds with his 6.87 ERA.
He can’t stop. Thats what old people do….they repeat themselves. I’m getting old too and I do it, but atleast I’m repeating something truthful.
Hayes is a scrub. War…what is it good for? To say Hayes is better then Marte (.141 to .189) is ridiculous. And the allocation of assets towards Hayes is more then 1 sided. The Reds paid to get this guy so he is A BIG PART OF WHY THEY SUCK. Period. Take your meds like you’re supposed to
Every single one of you needs to stop with this stuff.
Jesse, your baiting comment about waiting around is unnecessary.
Indy Red Man, the comment about taking your medicine is also completely unnecessary.
Oldtimer, while I’m sure you won’t be updating the data now that games are over, let’s try to remember one of the guidelines for posting, which is don’t continue to be repetitive day after day and saying the same thing.
Everyone getting mad about Oldtimer posting his stat – just stop responding when he does and every single one of you will save yourselves time and frustration (which is clearly causes you).
Before Hayes it was his classic Luke Weaver takes in between meaningless statistical information from the 50s and 60s. He eventually goes to bed.
Both sides of this argument is very old but the repetition on both sides of this is stale. Bottom line is we don’t have healthy productive pitching or hitting. Teams win with 1 weak hitter and or pitcher not 3 or 4 of both. Now allocation of resources is a debate, but health is often key to outcome. Health in general is not predictable but chronic back issues seldom resolve fully thus being chronic. It is hard to understand how they thought he would be consistent with a bad back.
Old timer, your numbers for Hayes don’t add up. You need to check your math very carefully.
Thank you for the kind words, Wkuchad. I welcome disagreement. I shouldn’t presume to speak for OT, but my view is that he reposts the stats in reaction to posts reflecting the fixation on Hayes. And he’s careful to say that he’s not making the case that Hayes is the cause of the better w-l record. It’s a long offseason for long-suffering Reds’ fans, so I have confidence that we will rehash this many times.
The Reds need Starting Pitchers. But every spring, we are told that Reds are loaded with Starting Pitchers. And every year by the All Star Break, the Reds pitching is woefully thin due to injury and ineffectiveness.
This is not a player problem. It is an organizational problem. They misjudge the talent, can’t keep them healthy and can’t rehab them once they get hurt.
There is a good question about what Derek Johnson was actually doing as the Pitching Coach. I am not an expert, but with the rash of injuries (and every team has them, the Cubs pitching staff was really damaged too), and ineffectiveness (too many BoB, and too many HR given up), you kind of have to wonder, just judging by the results.
Pitching is the most important part of the game. For the Reds to win more games in 2027, their pitching has to get better; both starters and relievers. They have to get more quality for pitching, and that costs money. Money, the magic word that makes the Ownership shrivel up and hide.
He was not the Reds P coach from May on through September. He was on indefinite leave for unknown reasons. Jim Tracy was the interim P coach.
Also by the way its not Jim Tracey it’s Matt, since you need to be right about everything
Had to delete some comments.
Folks we are not going to allow some random twitter account speculation be treated as something here. Please don’t bring it up again unless there’s actual reporting on it and not just some random dude on social media who said they know something.
I was hoping for better results from Williamson, though he looked a little better the last few starts, but overall, he was a wash this year. Louder seemed to backtrack a little this season. Hopefully he makes some adjustments, but at this point I look at him as a #4 or #5 pitcher in the rotation. I don’t want Brady Singer back on any deal. Yes, he is durable, but almost a 5.50 ERA and doesn’t strike out guys too much and it seemed like his walks were up as well this year. Greene is obviously out until at least the early part of 2028 season. So, for sure at the moment unless someone gets traded, we have Burns and Lodolo most likely.
The Reds need to go out and get at least a solid #2 guy which will be expensive and these players may not want to come to Cincinnati.
Hopefully the bullpen can get a couple of new guys. I wouldn’t mind keeping Pagan. I would like to see Antone back as well. Hopefully Ashcraft is over his injury and will be more like the guy we got used to last year. Burke, I worry about all the appearances and innings he pitched but he has been really good this year so I think they should try to bring him back as well. Everyone else should be let go, sent to the minors, or be replaced in general.
Nor replace them when they are injured. Pagan and Ashcraft both had 2-3 month injuries at the start of May. Two of our best bullpen pieces. Did we go out and make a couple of trades using out 25th and 30 th prospects for a couple journeymen 4.00 ERA relievers to get us into July at 500? Krall even said he was going to trust his depth at Louisville. I think it was 10-12 guys, some with multiple tryouts, but all of whom failed. 7-8 losses we could have avoided. But we still have our 25th and 30th prospects, along with all of our top 30, for next years triumph. Gosh, he covets these guys like they are going to be all stars or hall of famers. Hardly any have come close and many more have fallen from grace and some have even been DFAd without suitors. And your mlb roster lacks mlb multiple pieces of talent. What are we trying to do? Collect all these prospects while holding on to fourth place for that big run in Year 202__? Elly is going to be gone in 2029 and the 3-4 guys we get for him will probably be really good in 2031. How’s about next year or 2028 before we lose Elly and really tank?
I don’t know if I agree that “every spring” we hear that about pitchers. Seems like the Price years were abundantly fruitful for Tim Adleman and Sal Romano, among other guys who disguised the hook on their wrist as a 4-seamer. But if one year equals “every spring,” sign me up for a dozen of them.
The thing about the starting pitching is, do you give up on guys like Abbott and Lodolo after one bad season? Both of them were well-above average pitchers in 2025 (with Abbott in particular being one of the best pitchers in baseball).
I think the Reds really need to try to figure out what went wrong with them and try to get them back to pitching like they did in the past. The 2025 versions of Abbott and Lodolo would have made this Reds rotation formidable, even without Greene. That’s what we were expecting, but it never materialized.
Singer, sure, you can replace him with a FA signing. But I still have hope of one day seeing a Greene/Abbott/Burns/Lodolo rotation with a FA signing (or Lowder) as the 5th pitcher.
If there is a season next year and the Reds don’t commit to a full rebuild this offseason, then I would like to persist with most of the starting pitching they have and focus most of the resources on improving the offense. The Reds need a legit 3B or 1B, as well as a 2B. They still could use an upgrade in the OF too.
Lodolo – Brittle.
Abbott – out of shape.
LOL. An expert.
Muted.
If there is a 2027 season, Burns, Abbott, Lodolo, and Lowder will all be in the rotation and the primary goal is the get the latter three back to their better selves.
The key would be to pick up a #2 level starting pitcher to put behind Burns, and you need to do it without giving up Alfredo Duno. I don’t think that is doable. Hunter Greene turning into Mr Glass is a massive setback for the organization and has no clear way to get around that.
Maybe Greene can last long enough as a back of bullpen guy. As a starter I wouldn’t put any trust in him/
3rd and 1st, they could do cheaply in-house with Steer(if back healthy), and Sal at 3rd. I would platoon Brito and McLain, who I’m not willing to totally give up on yet. He does hit lefties better and when Brito starts and they have the lead in late innings, bring in McLain for best defense. Bring back Burke, Stephenson and Pagan. Let go of Pierce Johnson! Garcia and Mey are ok to be back. Find another lefty or two for the pen. Ashcraft i guess should be back too. Sign Arozarena or Teoscar Hernandez for LF. Find a capable 2nd starter behind Burns, maybe Sonny Gray?? Other than that, (and dumping Hayes), they isn’t much more to do!?
Oops in my above post I forgot Abbott. I give him another year in the rotation and let him know look you need to come into camp in shape.
We also need to know how the CBA deal-to-be turns out. But there are too many holes to fill unless we get some unexpected hitting improvement from guys like McClain, Marte and Bleday and significent pitching improvement from Abbott, Lodolo and Lowder. Williamson hasn’t been reliable for extended periods so he’d be on an innings limit plan in 2027. Have to give H-Rod a chance not to be Hinds/CES/Aquino … On the free agent front Suarez may not be worth $16MM but maybe he’d go for a 2yr lower AAV deal? Need to find 1 SP and 1 legitimate hitter this offseason – Can they sign Stephenson? If they don’t cut Hayes they are sending the message that the organization is not serious about improving. Need Steer to make it back from tricky surgery. Dunn looked promising, Jorge may work out too. Relief pitchers can vary substantially year to year so I’ll stay out of that morass. Gonna be a long offseason with the pending lockout.
Is it possible that this board can get an KBH embargo for a while? I think everyone knows he was probably the worst player in baseball and further discussion is unnecessary.
Agree. Hayes is terrible but there were about 15 other guys that were counted on that sucked.
Hayes -0.7 WAR in 244 PA. Friedl -1.0 WAR in 272 PA. Marte -1.5 WAR in 201 PA. Arroyo -0.7 WAR in 150 PA. McLain -0.6 WAR in 496 PA. Singer -0.6 WAR in 31 games as SP. Santillan -0.9 WAR in 44 games as RP.
I only found seven players with significant negative WAR and considerable PT.
OT, a couple of comments:
1) congrats on your first anti-Hayes post
2) the problem with your numbers is not taking into account current and future salary; Hayes is by far the biggest albatross on that list
Not my first at all.
Trevino had a -0.7 WAR. Wil Benson was counted on when he made the team. He ended up with negative WAR before they shipped him out. CES and Hinds were brought up and counted on and sucked. Mey had a negative WAR and other pitchers. When you are brought up you are counted on to produce or you are not brought up. Try to keep up little fellow. I know it’s hard for you.
It’s a tall task to try to turn things around for next year’s team to be competitive. Too many holes and not enough means to fill them. I don’t love it but with the uncertainty of the CBA and a down farm system it may be wisest to punt on next season (especially considering Greene will be recovering).
Let Singer walk, there’s no way you can justify a QO after his performance this season. Talk to Burke to see if he’ll come back if the price ends up being right, hope Pagan accepts his option. Pass on Johnson, $8m is too high for a guy coming off a below average season in the bullpen. I like Suarez, but $16m is too much for a guy that was merely average offensively without a standout defensive position. Maybe you bring him back if you like his presence in the clubhouse and believe he can bounce back a bit. I would give the QO to Stephenson. Worst case he accepts it and provides a bridge year for Duno, and you should have the $ to pay him. Best case you get a solid comp pick for him. And while we’re at it, bite the bullet and DFA Hayes, it’s beyond time.
Let next year be for sorting. See if Abbott, Lodolo, Lowder, Petty, and Williamson can bounceback / take the next step. The Reds have a bunch of infielders that haven’t made their mark in MLB that they need to sort through to see who’s a keeper. McLain, Brito, Cabrera, Arroyo, Balcazar all need to prove their worth. The Reds have a bunch of OF guys that more in line with 3rd/4th OF types in Bleday, Myers, Rodriguez (although he’s got plenty of untapped upside still) and Dunn. Can Jorge make the transition to MLB with more time and hit enough to stay on the field? What are they doing with Marte? Can anyone take the next step to being an 2 WAR everyday type player?
Bullpen is filled with guys that have had opportunities with little to show for it. Santillan and Phillips are coming off awful years and probably in line for DFA (especially with Santillan’s injury). Mey, Maxwell, etc need to start showing improvements, for some it may already be too late.
Lots to sort through, may as well do it while Hunter’s on the shelf and we’re waiting for Duno to arrive.
Ken Broo had a novel suggestion on his WLW 700 Sunday Morning Sports Talk yesterday. He said Wayne Krivsky was the best Reds GM of the past 20 years and should be brought back as GM in 2027.
He said Jocketty only made one good acquisition (Mat Latos). He forgot that he also traded for Scott Rolen and signed Aroldis Chapman as FA in 2010.
I think we need more people like Ken Broo (not).
@oldtimer (not directed at you)
Lets not forget Ryan Ludwick had a 130 ops in 2012. Also signed Sean Marshall who was really good in 2012 before his arm imploded in 2013. Traded the bloated corpse of Alfredo Simon for Suarez after 2014 seasons (or was that when Dick Williams stepped in as GM?)
QO to Stephenson, no to Singer and Burke (try to work out a 2 year deal).
Release Hayes, keep Sal at 1B.
If the Reds wanna go out and spend, I’m all for it. In that absence of that, here’s what I’d do.
I liked what I saw from Brito a lot–he gives good at-bats. Krall can’t be trusted to sign third basemen, so Juan is my incumbent there.
LF platoon of Bleday and Steer—both have strong splits that complement each other.
CF platoon of Jorge and Dunn. Small sample sizes, but the indications are that this is the right choice until one of them blossoms.
Sign a bat first 2B. McLain is your backup IF, late inning defensive wizard.
RF–It’s hard to see HRod having an OPS below .700 even with his chase rate. I’m inclined to see if he can mature in that regard, but I’m also bringing in a rebound candidate type veteran as insurance.
DH–I’m ok with bringing back Geno. True to form, he did most of his damage in the 2nd half.
So yeah, the bulk of the $60mil plus would be invested in pitching as the free agent market for arms has both quality and quantity.
Oh, and if I could get a major league ready prospect (2B, 3B, OF) for Lodolo I’m making that trade in a heartbeat.
LOL at the last sentence. MLB ready prospect for Lodolo? Unlikely.
Why would high-quality P want to pitch in GABP for the Reds?
Dunn is coming off TJ surgery. OF don’t throw every play but they do throw so that’s uncertain at this point.
Yeah, I would not count on Dunn for 2027. He is very injury prone, and there is no guarantee he will be any good in 2027. Maybe he will, and that would be great. But counting on him…..no.
Everybody has scouting reports on every player in the ML. Lodolo is known for what he is, and is not going to bring back much in a trade. First round draft choice, like Nick Senzel, is another bust. Stop drafting guys named “Nick”. 🙂
That’s a joke, sort of.
Nick Howard, too. Reds #1 pick about 15 years ago.
Nick Travieso was a Reds first-round choice in 2012. He never sniffed the majors.
Step 1: Don’t draft anyone named Nick.
Point is, you just gotta surround Burns, Elly, and Sal with league average competence and hope (oof, that again) Duno/HRod/Jorge break out. That’s a .500 team with a little upside……a realistic goal imo. Not sure anyone has the stomach for a full rebuild given the track record of the front office.
I can say without much doubt that Reds will not be .500 or above in 2027.
No stomach for a rebuild…also a little too early … still have a couple years of EDLC (before trading him) and Stewart and Burns just starting.
Where is the $60M+ coming from?
Monopoly money?
If you take the current payroll and subtract the salaries of impending free agents, that’s how much they could spend before (hopefully) a salary floor.
I am really hoping for a minimum team player salary. If they get 175 million minimum, the Reds are going to have to spend a good chunk of money.
If the Reds ownership group can’t afford the league minimum team payroll then they should be forced into selling the team by MLB.
Good article, Doug. This team has a lot of work to do this off-season indeed. It will be interesting to follow along. Of course the impending labor dispute will probably be taking up most of the MLB airwaves.
A comparable situation existed in 1981. Foster and Griffey were traded to NYM and NYY for peanuts in return. Starting 3B Ray Knight was traded for past-his-prime Cesar Cedeno. OF Dave Collins left as FA. Poof. Four of the eight players in 1981 lineup (that produced best W-L record in MLB) gone. Replacing them were Trevino, Milner, Cedeno, and Householder. Bench moved to 3B. Those 5 players COMBINED had 0.8 WAR as a group.
The Reds had some MiLB talent, but they were not ready for MLB in 1982. They traded for Wayne Kenchicki (defensive 3B for Bench) and signed their first ever FA in Larry Biittner.
Tom Seaver had his career worst season (-0.8 WAR) in 1982. He was not done (he pitched pretty well for other teams in mid 1980s) but he had a really bad year as a Red. It was the only negative WAR year of his career.
So, 4 lineup starters gone. Their best P had his worst ever year.
Team totals were 6.1 WAR (batters) and 21.8 WAR (pitchers). The latter was pretty good. Much better than 2026 Reds P.
Very interesting, OT! Thanks for sharing.
Admittedly, Foster, Griffey, and Knight could (should) have brought back much much more..and given their proven track records, more that Stewart/Burns/ and maybe even EDLC.
The Knight trade was especially bad. It was made so Bench could move from C to 3B. He played a decent 3B at times in early 1970s but not in 1982 at 35 YO later that year. Knight wasn’t great but he was better 3B than Bench.
Yes, who can forget Nick Esasky? I know, I sometimes want to. One time first round draft choice.
I think he was supposed to be the heir apparent to 3rd base. He eventually did something with the Boston Red Sox (30 HR), then ended up with the Braves as a free agent and retired due to “vertigo”.
And Arturo DeFreites. Another Bob Howsam favorite. Don’t forget him, either.
Bob Howsam was a great GM, but made his own share of mistakes. The Reds, generally speaking have been managed in a very mediocre fashion. Sometimes they do come up with great players, but usually not enough.
2027 season, if it gets played, is a crap shoot as far as whether the Reds finish above or below .500. Anything can happen, but I would not bet on them being any kind of WC or playoff team.
In fairness to Esasky, he developed vertigo and never played after 1992.
… Early in his tenure with the Braves, Esasky was placed on the disabled list and doctors determined he was suffering from vertigo, caused by an inner ear infection. The condition limited him to nine major-league games during the 1990 season, during which he had a .171 batting average. After missing the 1991 season, Esasky played briefly in the minor leagues during 1992, then was released by the Braves in July 1992. He did not play professionally thereafter …
Reds went from best record in baseball in 1981 to 61-101 in ’82. The roster blow-up orchestrated by Dick Wagner.
Before the ’82 season, I recall Bob Trumpy on WLW Sportstalk trying to put a positive spin on the changes, saying that, although the team lost offense with Foster and Griffey gone, the revamped lineup with young guys like Paul Householder and Clint Hurdle had a chance to “double you to death.”
The only thing that doubled — more than doubled — was the number of losses from ’81 to ’82.
Dodgers get: EDLC
Reds get: De Paula, Sirota, Zazueta, Leiter, Rushing
2027 maybe a bust, so I’ll go with 2028
1 Rodriguez (RF), 2 Stewart (1B), 3 De Paula (LF)
4 Duno (C), 5 Siorta (CF), 6 Graham (DH)
7 Britto (3B), 8 McLain (2B), 9 Arroyo (SS)
10 Rushing (C), 11 Cabrera (INF)
12 Marte (OF), 14 Jorge (OF)
1 Burns (SP), 2 Greene (SP), 3 Abbott (SP)
4 Lowder (SP) 5 WIlliamson (SP)
AAA Zazueta (SP), AAA Leiter (SP)
Spend money on a closer, and setup man. 2029 Give all the money to Yordan Alverez.
Below is a list of Top Shelf FA ever signed by Reds.
Dave Parker.
Sure, let’s add number 2 to the list
It took all of one second to think of CoCo Cordero. Maybe stop acting like the be all end all and commenting on everyone’s posts like the final authority, it’s exhausting. You’re sucking all the oxygen out of the room.
Coco Cordero and Dave Parker are not on the same planet. Parker is HOF-er. Cordero is not.
Team is probably young enough to still build from within without a complete tear down (even though upper farm is empty at the moment). But, need to get better prospects and develop them better. As Mr. Fitch mentioned some earlier, the Reds experimented with greater analytics under GM Williams and manager Bell by bringing Driveline on pre-Covid. Perhaps they didn’t stick with that effort long enough. As Richard pointed out Reds were in the top 10 in analytics staff (in 2018?). But the reds didn’t abandon it completely. More recent info (2023) shows teams like Tampa Bay, Yankees and Dodgers greatly expanded their analytic staff, dropping the Reds out of the top 10. However, the Reds overall research staff is in the top 10 (at 28), comparable with Cleveland and Minnesota, and more than Milwaukee and Pittsburgh, and double St. Louis.
According to an earlier Francona interview, the Reds are trying to establish a system=wide approach to hitting and last year’s draft probably the first to recruit based on that approach. So, I guess we will see. As far as next year (how ever that may be), I suspect we’ll see the same dudes.
Francona and Valaika started in their roles here in 2025, so that year’s draft should have been the first to reflect whatever it is they are attempting to accomplish.
If part of the offensive problem, as I belueve, is not having the right types of hitters for their program, drafting and otherwise acquiring those hitters should be paramount. Signing Geno, for example and in particular, doesn’t really fit with that concept. Rece Hinds and CES didn’t seem to fit the profile, either.
I do admit I am thoroughly baffled by what Francona and Valaika are trying to accomplish. Their prior reputation in Cleveland was to seek higher contact, lower strikeouts, with a tradeoff of less hitting with power, ie lower exit velocities, etc. But is this the case here?
I honestly do not have a clue, as we hit with very good power, yet have lower contact and high strikeouts. If anyone knows more, please weigh in. What exactly is the Reds’ system-wide hitting approach? Further, is it backed up by the club’s performance, including the minor leagues, where our hitting is near the bottom rung as well?
One other specific question I have is, How do our last two drafts reflect this hitting approach, as both of out top picks were known to have deficits with breaking pitches and contact, and have metrics to support those deficits in their pro experiences.
I try to follow the minors as best I can. These two picks were very toolsy kids. Both have had success but come with some notable risks. The obvious attraction for both is speed. Still, contact and breaking pitched are a problem, and I do not get how these picks fit the equation (other picks such as Eric Becker, Ty Doucette, Vai Levu have better polish and contact). Again, I do not understand both the ‘equation’ ie hitting approach as well as these acquisitions.
In a way, it just seems to me a continuation of believing we can fix lesser hitters. And that’s been an issue going back to Alfredo Rodriguez in 2016, who no other ML club thought would hit, except the Reds. Since then, there’s a pretty good list of players who we were told would hit, but didn’t (or haven’t yet). Of the hitters in this timeline, only Winker, Elly and Stewart have hit — and there is a pretty compelling argument for each that they developed themselves, not ‘were developed’ by the club. Hector as well, though he’s still more unknown at the ML level (dude’s very unique).
If I were to sit down with Nick Krall, I’d ask him to define the Cincinnati Reds offensive approach, then show us how this is progressing. Because it’s not apparent to at least one fan. It’s been two years, as noted above. Time for a report card.
Good post Dave. Correct me if I’m wrong wasn’t it recently in that National Friday night Reds broadcast that Votto was asked about team’s hitting coach, and Joey blurted out I rarely listened to the hitting coach I had my own off season hitting coach.
It makes me wonder to what degree the team’s hitting coach (on any team) is responsible for the success or failure of batters. I tend to think not as much as fans think, and thus fans demanding coaches should be fired – at least in my opinion won’t move the needle.
Votto’s reply was that ‘he’ was his own hitting coach once in the majors. He also said he really valued the coaching he got coming up the organization. Don’t know if that meant he didn’t like the coaching he got in the majors, but I’m guessing he meant that at that point he no longer needed what they had to offer. I’m of the opinion that hitting coaches can try to help struggling hitters by suggesting changing this or that, but can’t make a really good hitter out of a not so good hitter, or even help someone transition from AAA to major league pitching.
Also, it was noted that Votto would spend hours in the cage just practicing off the tee, learning to hit the inside pitch by placing the tee really close to his body. A level of commitment that perhaps not everyone puts in. It sounds like EDLC does, which explains his vast improvement hitting from the right side.
I don’t know about the 2025 draft, but certainly the 2026 draft should have selected the type of hitter that Francona/Valaika are seeking. Should note that CES, Hinds, even Marte and Arroyo predate Francona. Also, I remember Senzel having a decent 1st year, then they screwed him up, in my opinion, trying to make him have more power.
If all else fails, petition the commissioner to shift to the AL West where .500 winning percentage gets you in the playoffs… The Reds may have to pay a “relocation fee” but I bet it’d be less than a QO.
Easy fix. Salt Lake City would pay for the Reds to move. The Jazz are owned by a homegrown billionaire. Maybe he would buy the Reds.
Really?! Are you going to follow the Reds if they become the Salt Lake City Reds? Not me.
Mike, I think this sounds like the best option for the current Reds. They’d could compete in a division where 81 wins is the standard!
For me, the insanity MLB business is underscored by the fact that option calls, qualifying offers, free agency, and contract tendering go on as usual, with a CBA expiration and an almost certain lockout staring down ahead of the next season.
If they get one thing correct in the next CBA, it should be that it expires 24 hours after the end of the World Series with no player status changes permitted in that 24 hours.
This is a great point. But my guess is that they want the “minutia” of what you discussed above already resolved, in case they reach a last minute deal right before the season starts. But who knows??
@Jim, this is a great point. I’ve pointed this out before: the NFL, NHL, and NBA all concluded their current CBAs several months before they expired. There was zero drama about losing games due to a work stoppage and zero impact to their offseasons. To me, one of the best parts of a cap-based CBA is that it aligns Owner and Player interests with putting the best possible product in front of customers (fans). MLB and the MLBPA need to take a long look at themselves in the mirror and find a better way forward in Labor Relations. The truth is, the items you mention are small potatoes compared to the reputational damage done to the league every five years.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/baseball/we-have-to-get-tougher-reds-2026-numbers-tell-story-of-weak-season/ar-AA2d7jQh?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=3594420c78074e9dcda8c9ed2b2ab2f4&ei=8
In brief summary, Reds have three problems. Hitting, pitching, and defense.
No unlike the Bengals having three problems yesterday. Offense, defense, and special teams.
Clipped:
Cincinnati Reds lineup
4.11 – Runs per game, last in the NL (only three AL teams were worse)
.229 – MLB-worst batting
.305 – MLB-worst on-base percentage
.699 – Second-worst OPS in NL
1,544 – NL-high strikeouts (second in MLB)
Cincinnati Reds pitching
668 – MLB-high walk total
342 – NL-high walk total for starting rotation
214 – Home runs allowed (5th most MLB)
1,293 – Strikeouts (eighth-lowest total in MLB)
4.84 – 28th-ranked ERA in MLB
4.97 – 28th-ranked starting rotation ERA in MLB
Cincinnati Reds fielding (Fangraphs)
-32 – Defensive runs saved, fourth-worst in MLB
-9.3 – Overall defensive rating (19 MLB teams are better)
It’s time to
(A) Hire someone who can be a true architect of what Milwaukee or Tampa Bay have
(B) Tank. Tank hard.
But unless you do (A) nobody’s gonna believe (B). Since they announced the dreaded continuity of the brain trust it feels pretty hopeless right now.
That’s almost what Ken Broo suggested on WLW 700 yesterday morning. Hire the entire TBR front office.
Ermm, Ken, why would people living in Tampa want to move to Cincinnati? The travel path is usually the other direction.
Well, glad you narrowed it down. For a little while there, I thought the Reds organization was really in trouble.
Defense, hitting and pitching.
But….bobbleheads are OK! Thanks!
Not my article. I just linked and clipped it.
I think if I were the Reds front office considering the current situation, and didn’t plan to totally rebuild, I think I’d kind of silently punt on 2027 as others mentioned too, and hope to reset in 2028. The problem is, I don’t think they have many assets to trade, or move around, to try and get talent in even for a 2028 run. That’s why I would have traded off Stephenson, Singer, Burke at this past deadline, and you’d have a head start on resetting/rebuilding a bit. But that’s in the past.
But maybe Duno is ready to start Opening Day 2028. I’m not sure I see him as a Catcher though. For a team that needs hitters too, having him catch 120 games a year probably lessens his hitting ability, and I get the feeling he is not projected to be a great Defensive Catcher. Perhaps I’m wrong on that…but I think I’d lean towards moving him to 1B, DH, etc. and just getting a really good Defensive Catcher who maybe can’t hit, but is great Defensively, let Duno focus on hitting.
I think I’d bring Suarez back for 2027. He’s not the answer to the Offense, they need about 3-4 other new Hitters I think. But maybe if he’s healthy he’d be better than this past year…and still even in a bad down injury affected year he had 25 HRs, 75 RBIs I think. Even if you’re kind of not expecting to be a contender, you sometimes sign players just to put up a respectable roster and give the fans a little more excitement, and I think Suarez fits that bill for 2027 at 16 million.
Also, if he’s pretty good…and the Reds aren’t at the 2027 All Star break, he’d bring a decent prospect or 2 back. That along with the the Reds getting 2 top 35 2027 draft picks most likely, and the farm system could jump up to respectability again.
It’d be interesting what a new front office would do, what direction they’d go, especially if given full control. We’ll see what happens.
The Suarez option is mutual, I think. He can decline it.
The Reds reportedly tried to trade some/all of those players but were not satisfied with the returns.
From what he said, I think Geno wants to stay. I don’t think the Reds “Top Men” and especially Francona, want to keep him, though.
I am starting to have trouble with my baseball vision here. I think two years ago, we all thought that bringing in Terry Francona was a GREAT move. Right now, I am beginning to think he is the wrong person to run this team.
I don’t have an answer here. I know that David Bell was a dead end, but I haven’t seen any real magic with Terry Francona either. But he will be back next year, unless he wants to quit. The Reds will not fire him with a year left on his contract. They are too cheap.
They didn’t fire Bryan Price until his fourth straight year of last place. The Reds of today don’t fire managers like Tony Perez was fired in early 1990s.
If not new managing ownership partner(s), then I would welcome a new Red’s front office.
I’m a little more skeptical about Francona being the right Manager too moving forward. I wonder if he’s considered good for young players? If they go more the youth route, I think maybe they should consider a younger Manager too. He didn’t seem like he wanted to play Marte, Rodriguez, or Arroyo, and almost had to be forced to play Rodriguez due to I think Toglia getting injured. I’m not saying he may not have had good reasons…I think all 3 of those young players struggled Defensively.
A few minor things too like never giving De La Cruz, and Stewart a day off when they were struggling. I didn’t understand that, and think it actually hurt the Reds at times, and would have helped those players to have a little more time off to then reset and get back into a groove.
But overall…Bell, Francona…not sure it matters a whole lot. Have to have better players overall.
Lots of thoughts on this by a lot of people who will all come to the same general conclusion by taking different routes.
Yeah, it would have been fun to see this season not go up in smoke. I fear there are more of those ahead, and at my age, I gotta pick my fights.
3rd and 1st, they could do cheaply in-house with Steer(if back healthy), and Sal at 3rd. I would platoon Brito and McLain, who I’m not willing to totally give up on yet. He does hit lefties better and when Brito starts and they have the lead in late innings, bring in McLain for best defense. Bring back Burke, Stephenson and Pagan. Let go of Pierce Johnson! Garcia and Mey are ok to be back. Find another lefty or two for the pen. Ashcraft i guess should be back too. Sign Arozarena or Teoscar Hernandez for LF. Find a capable 2nd starter behind Burns, maybe Sonny Gray?? Other than that, (and dumping Hayes), they isn’t much more to do!?
Teoscar is signed thru next year with the Dodgers so he is out.
Sonny Gray would be an interesting option. He would be available.
No doubt the Reds can piece together a team to win 65-70 games next year.Next year is not the biggest problem its after that and beyond.Just have to fix the minor league system and you do that by asking why would we want to go with those that created that mess.How on earth can hitters that hit well in the minors not hit in the big leagues?There is enough data to apply to get at least one or two right every now and then.I get it pitching is better but again whats being taught at all levels.It surely can’t be the swing and miss we see against every pitcher that takes the mound against us.Whats up with the pitching?Walks and walks and more walks is what we see night after night.Could it be we just suddenly can’t put the ball in play and throw the ball over the plate.Ok if its all the players then blow this thing up and start over.Reds for years now have fallen in love with players and I guess now they have fallen in love with the pitching/hitting instructors.We have two players in Sal and Elly that could start on a good MLB team.Two and thats it.We have one pitcher that could fill the role of a #1 or #2 starter on a good team.This mess while on Krall’s watch is not all on him.Sure he has not spent what money he has got wisely but this mess is all on the draft,developing and coaching people that are paid to keep the farm stocked and ready.Put some money in the system and fire those that have failed and bring in those who have had success.The way we hit and pitch is not working.Fix it.I am getting older by the minute and would love to be proud of at least one team at some point real soon.
Wonder…how did the Reds pitching fare with ABS. I guess since Stephenson was one of the best in challenging, they had to have had more balls changed to strikes. Were their balls competitive or wasted pitches? We’re they nibbling when they should have been challenginlg (Brantley argument). What impact did Johnson leaving have on them. Some of our pitchers I suspect have great stuff that they can’t control.
The Reds FO has a lot tough things to do to get the team improved but I wonder how the expected lockout will affect that, especially to the Reds who they prefer to make short-term deals in free agency. Does it make sense to land some free agents in november either they are starting pitchers or good hitters taking the risk of being prevented to play in 2027? Or Should they wait until the lockout will be over to start looking for the free agents despite it could be late?
I think they at least should try , before the lockout arises, to bring back Stephenson and Burke and have a 3-year deal with a #2 starting pitcher who can back up Burns in the rotation along getting a good hitter for 2-year deal. After that they can wait for the lockout gets over to look for more players…
If all recover healthy and no FA are signed or trades made (and OF COURSE both will happen), the 2027 lineup might be:
1B Steer 2B McLain or Brito SS Elly 3B Stewart C Trevino LF Bleday CF Myers RF Rodriguez DH Jorge or Dunn (or one of the OF)
SP Burns Abbott Lowder Lodolo Williamson CL Ashcraft RP Antone Garcia Mey Phillips
I’m like everyone else here … full of wishes and speculation and comments. I think it’s relatively safe to assume a few things …
1 – Nobody’s getting a QO. I love Steve-O but $23MM for one year is insane.
2 – Regardless of how the CBA plays out, Cincinnati isn’t a premier destination for any significant FA.
3 – Nobody knows how this year’s SP roster will perform next year except that HG won’t be on the mound.
4 – We’re not changing ownership. Even if we did, that will take a couple of years to see the impact on the field.
Let the Hot Stove Season begin!!
I do hope we can figure out a 3-year deal with TySteve that maybe has an option for a 4th and/or an opt out after 2 years. I don’t want to see him in another uniform.
I really do not think this team can be fixed by next year. There are too many holes to be filled. I am not too concerned about the bullpen, they have to be rebuilt every year and you can not depend on last years results with that said, keep Pagan, Ashcraft, Antone and probably Santillian. Try to resign Burke Let Mey, Phillips and Petty fight for a spot in spring. Try to bring in another lefty. I don’t mind keeping Rodriquez and Jorge and seeing what they can do but find a platoon partner for Bleday a right handed bat with power. Offer Stephenson the QO. I don’t care if the pick up the option on Geno but they need to jettison Hayes, whether he plays or not he is dead weight. Might as well see if they can fill the roster spot with someone who can hit. Let Singer walk (please) somewhere there is a pitcher that is at least better than Singer. Steer should be back so that will fill one spot. Put him at first and Stewart at third. At least that would be a start
I’ve been a fan too long to feel our favorite team cannot be at least partially fixed by the end of the next season. The Reds could turn out to be this season’s White Sox.
They could. This year’s White Sox had three straight 100 L seasons before this year.
I would not count on Tony Santillan being back next year, unless he comes back at mid-season. I could be wrong, but the surgery on his hip labrum is a pretty serious procedure.
As for Spencer Steer, who is a great guy, but pretty “average” for his offensive prowess, I guess he can be at first base, until someone better comes along…..Carter Graham, maybe???
I would get rid of McLain. I have seen enough of him. Really good fielder, but he cannot hit for average. If he could just bat .250, that would be ok. But he can’t do that.
Being a Senior Citizen maybe Im behind the times, but why would you watch the Playoffs a pay streaming device like Peacock if you can watch on your regular Cable or Satellite service or over the air for free?
It depends. One would be that maybe you can’t get NBC over the air where you live. Sometimes it’s just too far away from a tower or you’ve got too many things blocking your antenna. Cable/Satellite could be an option, but maybe you don’t have that but do have Peacock for streaming.
The unexpected success by Reds front office and Reds fans of CES at Baltimore, 3B and DH
58 195 25 54 13 0 11 39 11 4 55 1 1 .277
is definitely a downer but also the recognition that some unwanted players now on the Reds roster may make positive adjustments.
According to Doug, it sounds like the only adjustment Baltimore made to CES was not trying to make him adjust…just do what you do. It could be too, that the AL hasn’t seen him and figured him out yet. To the extent there is a next year, we will see. I liked CES, hoped he would work out, wish him luck.
To be very specific here rather than have something attributed to me that isn’t what I said, is that with Baltimore, CES is swinging at pitches out of the zone just as much or more than he ever had with the Reds, swinging at more pitches in the zone than he ever had with the Reds. He also swung and missed more than he ever had with the Reds (in MLB) this season.
I don’t know what adjustments anyone told him to make or not make. What we know is that he’s swinging at everything more than he ever did as a Red. Swinging at more balls. Swinging at more strikes. He’s making more contact on stuff out of the zone with Baltimore and less contact on stuff in the zone than he did with the Reds.
IN 2023, when CES hit well with Cincinnati, his BABIP was .336. In 2024 and 2025 when he didn’t hit at all, his BABIP was .247 and .223. This year? It was .328.
Reds fan since Al Libke, Grady Hatton and Ewell “The Whip” Blackwell. Am curious. Have not seen a word about why pitching coach Johnson left (other than for ‘personal reasons’). Am bemused, as a retired journalist-broadcaster why no reporter, covering the Reds “beat”, has wondered: 1. Is he coming back and, if so, when? 2. Was the assistant pitching coach really qualified to take over? What are his credentials? The resume of the Reds’ 2026 starters+ relievers, with one or two exceptions, leaves a glaring answer.
Will everyone please let it go with Hayes?
Highly capable glove with a bad back leading to a weak bat and still under guaranteed contract. Those are the only facts that matter. Miracles are called that for a reason and we’re out of them for 2026 anyway.
Those same words apply to McLain. Hayes had a better 2023 (also 2024 but McLain injured) and 2025 than McLain did. Their 2026 results were similar but McLain slightly better in terms of WAR.
If Hayes deserves the boot, so does McLain. So did Friedl and so will Marte. All four were starters on Reds OD in 2026.
@ Oldtimer
Yes, I am pretty much with you there. I would give Marte another Spring Training to show something, but unless he does, I would not even waste a spot on the Louisville roster with him.
I.AM.TIRED.OF.MARTE.
McLain has had plenty of chances. Good fielder, but he cannot hit for average. Again, depends on where the 40 man is after the World Series. All the guys on the IL will have to, at least for while, go back on the 40 man.
I think McLain’s defense and base running (and occasional bunting) are valuable enough to keep him around, at least as utility player and at least until a proven replacement is found.
The Hayes dilemma will probably keep going as long as he is a Red and hitting around .141. His glove will never mask that terrible average for the money he is making.
I would let go ALL Reds with -0.5 or worse. Except Greene and Santillan, who are injured. Both were bad before their injuries.
Reds need to exercise the option to keep Pagan for at $10M.
Reds need to sign QB1 during the 5-day window after WS. I think SteveO would sign 3-year deal between 36 and 45 million. He is needed until Duno arrives and plenty afterwards as mentor, backup, DH and sometimes at 1B. Stewart should move to 3B permanently. Ready to give Brito 2B over McLain now after realizing only the 2023 successful season was an aberration. All Matt’s other seasons before and after are the reality but he makes a great utility infielder. Jorge looks like he has the ability to continually adjust to the pitching while playing gold glove caliber CF. Hector looks like a keeper in RF. Give Bleday another chance. These 3 lefties backed up by Steer, Dunn and Myers.
It’s not the Reds option for Pagan – it’s a player option.
Pagan had two very good years as CL. Saved 32 of 38 SVO in 2025. Saved 24 of 27 SVO in 2026. He was arguably better in 2026. Why would he pitch for the same pay in 2027?
Hayes played in 94 games this season. He had 0 ABs in 19 games (late defensive replacement), and the Reds were 17-2. He had 4 ABs in 23 games, and the Reds were 18-5 in these. But these were games where the bottom of the order came around again and Hayes was not lifted for a pinch hitter. Reds averaged 6.3 runs in these games. Most telling is when Hayes had 3 ABs. In the 35 games he had 3 ABs, the Reds were 11-24 and they scored an average of only 3.1 runs per game. Reds were 7-10 when Hayes had 1 or 2 ABs.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/cincinnati-reds-salaries-and-contracts.shtml Reds had $96M in guaranteed contracts in 2026 (per BR, have any debates with them, not me).
Reds have $31M in guaranteed contracts in 2027 (per BR). The biggest anchor is Hunter Greene at $15M. Projected payroll is $110M. If all FA/options are signed, payroll is $141M.
Nine Reds are arbitration eligible. BR projects $69M for them. The three best Reds (Elly, Sal, and Burns) are not eligible in 2027.
Even with a fair to middlin roster, the Reds would pay $110M.
De La Cruz shows as eligible arbitration for the 2027 season per BBRef. They say arbitration eligible for 2027, and that jives with the shown 2 years and 118 days of service time at the start of the 2026 season.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/cincinnati-reds-salaries-and-contracts.shtml this is from BBR.
It shows Elly as 2028 arbitration eligible but that may be incorrect.
Oldtimer – that is incorrect. He is arbitration eligible in 2027, 2028, and 2029.
Elly is arbitration eligible next year.
On top of the mess as well summarized by Doug, of the 6 players probably leaving, the one they have the best chance of retaining is likely Pagan. Alas, the last hole to fill on a bad team is the closer, so they’ve got that to deal with that as well.
They surely won’t be making a QO to any of the 3, and only TySteve, Burke and Pagan probably have negotiating leverage as proven players not coming off of bad performances.
I suppose Eugenio, Singer and Johnson could be had for much reduced amounts, though they’d each be in the “Other options” category of the Trade Rumors FA summaries.
No idea what they do to fix the farm in short order. It has to be a multi-year/multi-draft project.
Singer (especially) and Johnson were bad in 2026. Suarez was fair and will be a year older.
I would think Pagan moves on. I think he was so good when coming back from injury he could probably get a 2 year deal maybe for 20 million on another team. If the Reds offered him that, I’m not sure he’d take it, unless it’s his only chance to really stay a closer. But probably a few decent teams that’d consider him as a closer.
Burns, Abbott, Lodolo, Ashcraft, and Lowder. Bleday, Hector, Myers, and Steer in the OF. Suarez, Elly, Brito, Stewart in the IF. Stephenson. You’re s-canning the scrubs from this year…Hayes, McLain, and Marte. Elly is about to go full Alvarez on the NL…those 2 things alone should put the Reds in the upper half offensively. The pen is a little weak or a lot of weak, but go out and get 2-3 guys again.
I can see the Reds at about 84-85 wins if everything breaks their way. It won’t, but its fun to dream
Hayes and McLain usually started (not scrubs) when they played. Ditto Marte. They were generally starters.
Suarez is not guaranteed to return. He and the Reds have a mutual option. He can decline it.
I don’t see how they could give McLain a starting job at 2B in 2027 no matter what he does this offseason or in spring training. I don’t think they have to give up on him necessarily, but he has to go into the season as a utility player or Triple A I would think. I’d lean towards Brito being your starting 2B, and you could have McLain coming off the bench if needing at 2B, 3B, give De La Cruz a day off at SS.
He was getting worse as a hitter late in the season. Maybe a new hitting Coach, or offseason coaching helps him change his swing and approach, but remember he was great hitting in Spring Training this previous year.
A lesson learned from 2026. Spring training means two things. Diddly. And squat.
@ Oldtimer
Diddly and Squat? Man….that is harsh!!! 🙂
Before your time but I remember Jim Baumer in 1961. Reds needed 2B to replace Billy Martin from 1960. Baumer was Rule 5 draft pick who had a hot ST, so Reds gifted him 2B in the lineup. He lasted two weeks. He was -0.3 WAR in 10 games, batted .125 BA with -33 OPS+ that April.
Reds had to trade multi-year All-Star C Ed Bailey to SFG for Don Blasingame to replace Baumer. Reds C after Bailey were rookies Zimmerman (-1.5 WAR), Edwards (-0.9 WAR), and Schmidt (-0.7 WAR).
Yes, Reds won NL pennant in 1961 with three rookie C and combined -3.1 WAR.
Spring training is fun to watch but not a good predictor of MLB success that particular year.
R
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CIN/CIN202603260.shtml
Opening Day 2026 lineup. Four of the starters had bad years and so did SP Abbott (compared to 2025).
The 5 days after the WS are crucial. “Five Days to Sign QB1” could be a gripping movie title, get it done FO! EDLC really put on a salary drive for his 1st year of arbitration and I predict he will haul in $10M+. I really thing Pagan will accept his player option for $10M. Burke should be signed as well, probably 5M to 7.5M. I think I saw enough of Jorge to expect decent production next year. I think learning English like he and Elly have, is a sign of enough intelligence to adjust and adapt to changing pitching patterns. See Marte. Hector seems like a very determined hitter that I believe will succeed. I hope Steer recovers fully restored to his prior ability.
Agree on Elly. $10 M or high via arbitration. I think Pagan will (should) get a raise. Burke had arguably the best season of any Reds P not named Burns. A heckuva pickup for Gavin Lux.
The progress the Krall/Meador front office made with emphasis on pitching was sidelined this season with a major injury to Hunter Greene and other lesser injuries. Also, the acquisition of Ke’ Bryan Hayes for a position that calls for a slugger was and is another problem, certainly financially. It will take time for these and other organizational problems to be resolved. But the last part of the season showed a better outfield and offense beginning to take shape.
Not sure about Suarez returning. His 2026 .212 BA, .307 OBP and declining defense probably won’t improve much at age 38. If Steer, a ,240 hitter) is staying I can’t see both their averages in the lineup.
I know his numbers were not good, but Suarez does impact the line-up somewhat just by being there….while he might be a reliable out, he can also hurt you at any moment, which affects the hitters in front and behind him.
One thing I don’t feel like thinking about for a while is the stinking Reds
Here we go again, sell the Reds. To who?
Do you want to say Charlotte Reds, Nashville Reds? Seattle Reds (or the one does not get the 2 new freancies).
Most of the owners want to make money.
Have to see what happens in the next contract.
I expect a longer lockout, and a lot of games missed.
Seattle Reds??? Don’t they already have the Mariners?