It is the cri de cœur of the player-turned-broadcaster, the rallying cry of the retired athlete who has seen his sport change—and not in a good way, according to a value system handed down from those who came before, those weathered hands who dug the game out of the infield dirt and passed their lessons on to eager rookies; knowledge of the capital “C”, capital “W” variety, the Correct Way to play this game of ball that has survived wool uniforms and evil spreadsheets. For Dusty Baker, it was The Book of Hank, lessons from the great Aaron who took a young Dusty under his wing. For Barry Larkin it is the grossly imperfect Monument to Cincinnati Baseball that is Pete Rose, chief mechanic and driver of the Big Red Machine.
I attended Sunday’s final game at the Ballpark Down By the River, so I missed Larkin’s parting comments. Even as he reportedly said nothing we already didn’t know (the Reds are a mess and changes are needed), it garnered news because the local mouthpieces employed by the Reds never say the bad part out loud. It would have been newsworthy had Barry told us who exactly he thought was failing us and what should be done. Instead, he left a big “fill in the blank” the rest of us are gleefully filling in for him, tearing at the fabric of this season like a coyote with a Chihuahua in its teeth.
No, what interested me more were his comments from a game days before:
“I had a chance to speak with Rick Monday. We were talking about some of the success they had as an organization. He was telling me some of the things that Dave Roberts does with some of their younger players to introduce them to the Dodger culture; how they expect their players to perform, how they expect them to compete and conduct themselves in a very professional manner.
It was very refreshing to hear to be quite honest… Obviously, this has been the team that has had the most amount of success, we talked about playing the right way, conducting yourself as a professional, hustling on and off the field. Really, kind of the way it was taught back in the day of Pete Rose, Tony Perez and Joe Morgan. The Big Red Machine. The team that has had some success. A lot of success. A guy making the calls and calling the shots. Commanding the room and demanding the players to play a certain way.
Look at the Dodgers, the little dance they do when they get a hit and everyone does the same dance. That’s pretty much it. Rick was commenting on how that is emphasized by that man right there, Dave Roberts.”
The free association and generational disconnect here is gobsmacking, reminiscent of some of the feeling expressed by Jeff Brantley, albeit without the overt hostility Brantley spewed toward analytics. I mean, really? The dance the Dodger players do as evidence of what? Playing the right way?
This is frightening stuff for Reds fans as it may give us some insight into the off-the-beaten-path ownership and the front office may be embarking down.
Which brings us as always, back to Nick Krall. I’ve always had a hard time taking up the shovel to dig Krall’s grave into the soft earth the way it was done to David Bell. When the #getKralled people drone on about bad signings, whether the name they give the unforgivable offense is Moustakas or Candelario, few acknowledge the simple truth that all free agent signings are a crapshoot and failures are routine across baseball no matter the front office pedigree. Jarrett Seidler over at Baseball Prospectus said this about the recent Kyle Tucker signing by Dodger master of the universe Andrew Friedman:
“The Kyle Tucker deal structure didn’t make a lot of sense to me for the Dodgers when it was signed, and on top of that the front office seems to have been terribly wrong in their evaluation of the player. That matters; the Dodgers will win less games because they made the choice to sink their money into Tucker instead of elsewhere.”
A social media account could, if it wanted to, cite the Dodgers’ signing Kyle Tucker and cry #getFriedmand.
Phillies fans, who suffered through 4 years of Nick Castellanos’ 5 year $100M contract and subsequent 4-year total WAR of 0.5 before crying uncle could yell #getDombrowskied if they felt so inclined.
AJ Preller signed Eric Hosmer to an 8 year, $144 million contract despite being rated a poor defensive first baseman who couldn’t hit the ball hard in the air. The Padres paid the entirety of his $44M remaining to get him out of town and shipped to Boston with a WAR that never reached 1.0 in any season in San Diego. #getPrellered anyone?
I can do this all day because baseball is rife with failed signings. We know from Brian Kenny’s research over at MLB Network that 50% of free agent signings over $100M are bad, bad meaning the GM wouldn’t do them again if given the chance. Jacob deGrom: 5 years, $185 million. Edwin Díaz: 5 years, $102 million. Carlos Rodón: 6 years, $162 million. All with post-signing WAR numbers that would make you pull your hair out.
These are supposed to be easy wins for a GM with money. Proven stars with proven track records. Imagine how much more difficult those signings become when you are shopping at Dollar General with a third of the dollars, settling for flawed, rehabbing or aging players, always hoping for the rebound. Can one really blame Krall for the Mike Sirota/Gavin Lux trade when ownership is demanding a win now approach at the big league level at the expense of valued prospects? Does anybody really think Brad Meador wanted Ke’Bryan Hayes over Alex Bregman or did Phil Castellini’s edict to build with pitching and defense and spend $7M a year instead of $30M a year for the foreseeable future to fix third base carry the day?
No matter the counter-argument, for the #getKralled crowd, the Brewers are their firewall, insisting it can be done with little money. And it can. But a comprehensive examination of how Milwaukee does this goes far beyond one individual. Baseball operations across an organization are diverse and expansive and decisions not always made from the person we want to hold accountable. There was a time when fans pined for a front office leader like David Stearns, who has since moved on to Queens, New York with a lot more money to spend and far less success as POBO, while the operation in Milwaukee hasn’t missed a beat.
For all the misdirection and eagerness to bury this front office, the angry may have simply picked up the wrong shovel. If you want to hold Krall and/or Brad Meador accountable, you may want to look at events that took place when Dick Williams left and Krall presided over what looks like a step back from the analytic presence Williams believed in. Believe it or not, there was a time when the Reds were actually among the leading organizations in analysts, along with the Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, Braves, Rays and Brewers.
Then, under Krall, Driveline founder and Reds minor league pitching coordinator Kyle Boddy was sent packing, along with other staff who were quickly plucked by other organizations as Nick Krall and ownership decided to move to a different “Art of Hitting” approach, running in the opposite direction from most of the league.
The reason more Reds watchers haven’t picked up that shovel is that Cincinnati baseball is trapped in its past. You see it in Larkin’s remarks on a regular basis. He uses the word “compete” the way Brantley wields the word “results,” vague and ultimately meaningless Courier font jargon from a game that no longer exists. These men may not speak for the organization, but they are paid by the organization and they very likely reflect what those in the upper offices are thinking.
Harkening back to questions of why Dick Williams left and why Nick Krall chose to glance westward where Riverfront Stadium once stood in search of success, I’ve always cited ownership first because at every turn of the Castellini Era, there has been meddling, meddling bordering on overt directives handed down to the front office. Paul Daugherty wrote about this many years ago in an interview with Bob Castellini, who admitted that in meetings, if consensus was not reached, he made the ultimate decision.
Yesterday, the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and C. Trent Rosecrans pulled the curtain back on what some of us have thought for so long:
“To demonstrate the difference between how the Reds and Brewers operate, Krall presented a “laundry list” of trades Castellini did not approve, according to people briefed on the meeting who were granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about a private matter.
“Krall wanted to build a strong base of young talent, then enhance it by trading established players at peak value when they are still affordable and under club control. His plan was not unlike the one previous Reds administrations suggested when Castellini would ask what made another small-market team, the Tampa Bay Rays, successful.
“Castellini, who turned 85 on Wednesday, has consistently balked at any such approach. He always devotes the Reds’ limited resources toward trying to compete at the major-league level, even if it means skimping on player development.”
If it’s true that Krall and Co. have been stymied for years attempting to replicate what a select few organizations with limited resources have done, not to mention hung in online effigy for failures in player development when the ownership has little use for spending on player development, perhaps it’s even understandable why everyone under Castellini has given up and given in to the only other approach the Reds have known—to dust off old playbooks and chase worn astroturf memories; Rose’s hustling hubris; Bench, Perez and Morgan’s rule of law in the clubhouse.
The next player who attempts to model his approach like Joey Votto will be told to expand his strike zone when the “situation” is deemed necessary. Kyle Farmer-type players will surely be valued over more talented players who don’t run on and off the field with the speed Barry Larkin would like. Or play shortstop the way Jeff Brantley deems appropriate.
Statues outside on Crosley Terrace have been bronzed celebrating their desire to compete, to slide headfirst into the Right Way. None of this is going to get it done today. It’s just another dead end, a barren cul de sac the Cincinnati Reds will find themselves parked until ownership changes and the baseball people underneath their yoke are freed from the shackles of the past to play the game finally, gratefully, The Smart Way.
Very good article as always Mr.Fitch.
@Finch. Quite an article. Nice research and well written
Good article and solid points. Not sure whom to blame, FO or ownership?
Baseball is broken (Dodgers), but small market teams can still compete (Brewers ,Rays). We just have to be very smart and play chess. Spending big money on free agent pitching is risky, injuries and can only help every fifth day. In my opinion, we should trade Elly while his value is high, sign SS to an extension, sign MM to an extension and hope he turns it around.
Don’t blame the Dodgers and Yankees that the game is broken. They are playing the game “the right way”, and that is to WIN. Yes, they have greater financial resources than the Reds, have greater media play, attention and support. And despite any new CBA, they will still have those things. There is unlikely to be any much of “sharing” of media money in baseball, something like the NBA.
And the NFL is broadcast nationally or regionally, and almost all the media money comes from the NFL media contract with the networks, unlike baseball, which has 162 games and has largely individual media contracts.
Baseball is skewed to the big media markets….the owners with a lot of money, or the owners that are smart enough to hire smart people to run their team.
And the Reds are none of these, by the choice of ownership. So they are, and have been, playing the game “the wrong way”, and will continue to do so into the forseeable future. It’s like playing solitaire with 45 cards, and expecting to win. They will not change, and will not adapt, and will absolutely not learn. Krall and Meador will be back for a return performance in 2027, and the results will be in the range of 75-85 victories, and depending on how the rest of the National League plays, may or may not get into the WC game, only to be eliminated right away.
If you want to look at futility (or broken baseball) another way, look at the American League West. The division winner may not even be a .500 level winning team.
“There is unlikely to be any much of “sharing” of media money in baseball, something like the NBA.”
National reporters have stated that the owners’ “first” proposal to the union included revenue sharing of ALL TV money, not just national-level TV money.
@ BK
And I would guess that the Players Association will reject that, and that the “owners” (aka, the Commissioner’s office) did not really mean that, and that if put to a vote, the Owners of MLB would vote no on that.
But it will make good press when the Player’s Association rejects it, because it means that nobody will have $700 million dollars to plunk down on ONE player for a free agent signing. Scott Boras dreams of deals like that. The Player’s Association (foolishly, playing into the Owner’s hands) thinks only of a handful of players winning Bigly on contracts. The game is slowly dying, but the band plays on.
@David, it would be ridiculous for the opening round proposal to be on that Owners would not support. Opening round proposals should clearly communicate both sides’ priorities so common ground can be established and sticking points identified early.
To your latter point, the players’ union reportedly proposed a similar sharing of ALL TV revenue. Of course, MLBPA wants a firm floor without a firm cap, and the Owners want a firm cap. So I agree that one or both sides may not be willing to share ALL TV revenue if they don’t get other major priorities.
That said, the Owners seem to understand that fans (their customers) believe MLB favors certain franchises, hurting their growth compared to the other major US sports leagues. With the ability to negotiate new TV deals in 2028 just around the corner, they are likely willing to follow the NBA’s lead and centralize a greater portion of the league’s TV revenue, perhaps all of it. The rapid increase in NBA franchise values has more than paid for the reduced local revenue for their large-market franchises. MLB franchise values have fallen well behind NBA franchise values. Moreover, the Yankees Owner has publicly stated he supports sharing more revenue and improving competition in the league.
Lastly, in both the NBA and MLB, local TV dollars have cratered in the last few years. Evan Drellich reported that MLB teams that have MLB broadcast their games like the Reds do are receiving roughly half what they received a few seasons ago. The same is true in the NBA. The reality is the larger market teams have been less effected by this trend, but the trend is toward more games available to national broadcasters and less to regional broadcasts. Both sides should understand this reality. In fact, Drellich cited MLBPA data in his article.
Did you read the article no way the old man allied that plus you don’t trade him now that just not smart .
Did you read the article no way the old man allied that plus you don’t trade him now .
What language are you speaking?
Whatever it is he didn’t speak it twice!
Doesn’t matter if Krall and Meador wanted Bregman, the choice to trade assets for KBH and his anchor of a contract is indefensible(ha). He can’t hit and has a trick back.
YES – ownership is the main problem, but when you waste money and prospects like Krall and Meador have, that’s a significant issue as well, and you cannot absolve them of blame.
Absolutely agree.
Agreed
Exactly, which is why the “Who is to blame?” argument is rather silly. There is obviously plenty of blame to go around.
I want a classic Ferrari to drive, but instead I have a 2014 Rav4 to drive. Because, surprise, I can’t afford that Ferrari.
Krall can say all he wants about what they “wanted”, this player or that, but that is just media propaganda eye wash, and some people will believe it. That doesn’t excuse doing dumb things, and acquiring players that have low, or even negative, value.
@David, from The Athletic article: “Krall declined comment.”
Krall was not a source for the article–no eye wash or propaganda.
“Krall was not a source for the article”
The Cincy media has been stifled for the most part for a long time. Curious as to who “let the dogs out”. Could it be Phil who doesn’t like the way his dad it running things? It’s pretty much well known that Big Bob didn’t like Phil saying things like, “Where you gonna go” and let everyone know he’s still in charge. Lots of grumblings going on? One thing for sure…this organization is a mess.
No idea who broke silence, but yes, the organization is a mess.
Hindsight is such a wonderful trait.
But what if Big Bob or Little Fil was the one who said get KBH that’s who I want what is Krall to do. These things we don’t know unless Krall gets fired and tells all.
Do you really think Bob Castellini had a clue who KBH was before Krall made that trade?
I didn’t and don’t like the Hayes trade. However, what if Ownership wouldn’t take on Suarez’s salary last season or approve moving the prospects necessary to acquire him? Keep in mind, Hayes did upgrade the Red’s 3B position last season, and they did make the playoffs. We can hypothesize all day long, but if the boss continually undercuts the strategy, then blame the boss, not the man with his hands tied.
Indeed, a lot of big free agent signings are big disasters for teams.
The Reds cannot really afford that, and they are also stuck with Ke’Bryan Hayes, who was not the big disaster other signings have been.
Advanced metrics can be used retrospectively to see how a player performs. They are a valuable meta-analysis tool to look at how a particular player (and a team) perform, either as a position player or a pitcher.
Studiously ignoring these things only reveals that people are stubborn about learning something new.
People who advocate for Advanced metric studies of players sometimes come across as being adamant about having the only true knowledge (and just like people who utterly reject them, too). A lot can be learned by just watching (scouting) a player or pitcher. Watching a player closely can tell you some things that are not always revealed with Advanced metrics, and in other ways can totally reinforce what the numbers are saying. And that is valuable in reinforcing what a player really offers, and why they should or should not be acquired, or kept within the organization.
The Dodgers dancing, yeah, that works. 🙂
I would say, as facile as it sounds, it does help to build team unity, which helps a lot with team psychology, in the dugout and in the locker room. Team psychology is one of those really tenuous ideas that exist, but can’t be quantified. You see it and feel it in your own workplace, after a fashion. If a job pays well, but is unpleasant to go to everyday, you start to look for the escape hatch.
You sometimes see it on the Reds team. One of the “intangibles” of Elly De La Cruz, is that he seems to be genuinely having fun on the field. And that can lift up some of his team mates. And Geno Suarez seems like a genuinely nice guy, and his team mates appreciate that, too.
“It is the cri de cœur”
You lost me from this point on
French for “cry of the heart.” It is essentially the same as the English word “passion.”
Good read. Before FA signings, there were these names.
Reds traded for Frank Thomas and Cal McLish in 1959. They gave up Don Hoak, Smoky Burgess, Harvey Haddix, and Johnny Temple for them. The first three helped PIT win WS in 1960.
The GM was Gabe Paul (from 1951 to 1960). He did good for the Reds than bad. But those two trades were bad.
Bill DeWitt came along as GM after him. He turned Thomas into Bill Henry (Reds closer 1960 to 1964) and McLish into Gene Freese (Reds 3B in 1961). Both helped Reds win NL pennant in 1961.
Later DeWitt made the worst trade in Reds history (just edging out Stafura & Rogers for Hayes) by trading HOF Frank Robinson for SP Milt Pappas and two players worse than Hayes, namely Jack Baldschun and Dick Simpson (-0.4 WAR as a Red and -2.2 WAR career). Simpson replaced Robinson on Reds roster in 1966. He hit 4 HR and 14 RBI in 92 G with Reds. Robinson hit 49 HR and 122 RBI and won the Triple Crown and WS with Orioles.
Now comes Bob Howsam in 1967. He turns Pappas into Cloninger & Clay Carroll, Simpson into Alex Johnson (later in McGlothlin & Pedro Borbon), and Baldschun into retirement. Carroll & Borbon later became key relievers for BRM in 1970s. Borbon is the only Red to play on every BRM team in the 1970s.
Bad trades become good players. It took a while, but I saw it happen.
The Reds have won 5 division titles, 1 NL pennant, and 1 WS in the past 50 years (1977 to 2026). The pennant and WS title season involved some good luck (hiring Lou Piniella instead of Reds owner’s choice Dallas Green, for example).
The Reds are not exactly the NYY or LAD.
The Temple trade wasn’t too bad. In addition to McLish, the Reds got Billy Martin and Gordy Coleman, who went on to hit 26 homers for the ’61 pennant winners and was a solid contributor for several seasons.
McLish, by the way, was the starting pitcher in the first Reds game I ever attended, a 5-2 loss to the Giants in June 1960.
Martin was TERRIBLE in 1960. Coleman was a throw-in. McLish was the purpose of the trade (Reds needed SP then).
No immediate gratification for the trade in ’60, but plenty in ’61.
As you know, McLish was part of the trade with the White Sox for Gene Freese. So, the previous deal with the Tribe ended up getting the Reds the starting first and third basemen for the ’61 pennant winners.
Yes on McLish to Sox. But I think Pizarro was the bigger fish in that trade.
Reds got 1 good year out of Freese and 2 good years out of Coleman. Pizzaro and McLish pitched 10-15 years mostly in AL.
Temple fizzled by 1964.
Getting the one good year out of Freese, plus a good year out of Coleman — 52 homers between them — was well worth the various trades. Both were significant contributors to a pennant winner.
They flipped Pizarro to the Chisox after getting him in the Braves deal, but they also got Joey Jay in that trade.
All things considered, I’d take Freese, Jay (21 wins) and a pennant over McLish, Pizarro and McMillan, no matter how any of the players did in future seasons.
OT, if I remember correctly Carroll bought a Cadillac while with the Reds, but I can’t remember who told him “seeing you in a Cadillac is like seeing a pig with earrings”. Who was that?
I don’t know. Carroll was from Alabama so maybe a Red from there or nearby.
My dad’s lifelong dream was to own a Cadillac. He grew up dirt poor in rural Northern Kentucky. He bought a sea foam green Cadillac in late 1970s. I wish we still had it.
Oldtimer, I love your comments if only for the walk down memory lane. You have a much better memory than me so It’s nice to have them jogged back:-)
OT: You forgot DeWitt trading Jerry Lynch to PIttsburgh for Bob Skinner!
Nah. He made worse trades than that. Osteen and Cuellar to name two. All GMs make good and bad trades.
They also traded Curt Flood, because they had Vada in CF.
Howsam tried to trade Steve Carlton to Reds in 1966 for Joey Jay & Gordy Coleman, but his STL bosses said No. DeWitt would have won that deal.
Joey Jay is my make believe name. I use it for carry outs and other minor transactions. The wife gets a kick out of it.
you forgot that Bench played for every BRM team in the 70’s
Yep. My bad.
So did Concepcion.
But not Hayes.
Let’s put a freeze on trades for the next 10 years and force teams to play with the people they drafted. They can shuffle the players back and forth at their whim, so long as they have enough data to evaluate their choices. We can then learn who’s the smart guy and who’s the dodo.
Love this idea! Pay them all in a salary scale for 10 years. After all, isn’t that the typical union way?
“It would have been newsworthy had Barry told us who exactly he thought was failing us and what should be done. ”
That’s a terrible comment. If you have an issue with the organization, the professional thing to do so, go behnd closed doors with those in charge, and offer advice, instruction, direction.
“Instead, he left a big “fill in the blank” the rest of us are gleefully filling in for him, tearing at the fabric of this season like a coyote with a Chihuahua in its teeth.”
You and others would have “gleefully filled in for him” no matter what he said. Professionals should not air their dirty laundry in the public arena!
Barry Larkin, is, I think, a decent guy, was a really good ballplayer (Hall of Fame, anybody?), and does ok on broadcasts, despite the nattering nabobs of negativity… 🙂
But he also dreams of
1) being the Field Manager of the Reds someday….well, I do too, but the odds of me getting the job are….infinitesimal, or even less (non-existent). His are reasonably substantial
2) he may also put together a group to buy the Reds. A rumor I think I read on this here blog
3) and as such, he will limit the finger pointing and the naming of the names, because that would probably not be a professional thing to do.
Richard, I have to agree that baseball has failed signings everywhere on a lot of teams. Every free agent signing is a risk. Sometimes those risks pay off and a lot of times they don’t.
I have to say this is one of your better articles. Thank you for the good read.
Agree on the article.
Morte than 100 years ago, the Reds traded young Christy Mathewson to NYG for past his prime Amos Rusie in 1900.
Mathewson had HOF career with NYG.
Then in 2016 the Reds re-acquired past his prime. The Reds acquired 3 HOF players in that trade. SP Mathewson, later MGR McKechnie, and OF Roush.
December 15, 1900: Traded by the Cincinnati Reds to the New York Giants for Amos Rusie.
July 20, 1916: Traded by the New York Giants with Bill McKechnie and Edd Roush to the Cincinnati Reds for Buck Herzog and Red Killefer.
December 15, 1900: Christy Mathewson traded by the Cincinnati Reds to the New York Giants for Amos Rusie.
July 20, 1916: Mathewson traded by the New York Giants with Bill McKechnie and Edd Roush to the Cincinnati Reds for Buck Herzog and Red Killefer.
Reds acquired 3 HOF-ers in that 2016 trade,
Sorry for double play. My Internet is slow to respond.
2016. These guys would have all been bronze statues by then!
@Richard, excellent as always; thank you.
Enjoyed your article, Mr. Fitch.
I dont always agree, but I respect you explaining your point of view. I will say that I understand the point on the Kyle Tucker comparison but if we are being totally honest at least he is providing some production and they have him for awhile with a chance he gets back to himself next year. Krall signing Candelario and trading for Hayes arent in the same galaxy as the other examples. These are guys that warranted the plug being pulled almost immediately. Someone has to be accountable for that and obviously no one was held accountable. That illustrates a low standard that, to your point, starts at the top.
Krall is the face of the current rendition of our Reds and he is going to be the scapegoat to some. I also think he cares what people think of him, thats a dangerous thing in such a high profile position (would not be surprised at all if he is the anonymous source that Rosecrans refers to in his article.) I feel like he has had enough time at this point and the arrows are all pointing down. I think expecting him to get them out of this mess is too much to expect from him.
The Driveline part is worth diving into more, I read about their relationship w the Reds on a Ringer article last year. Boddy does not think much of the Reds.
They have been bad before Krall but never the laughingstock of MLB. I will concede ultimate blame goes to Castellini’s.
I enjoyed the article.
Thank you, Justin. I really appreciate the reply and the time you took to consider the issues at play.
I haven’t lived near Cincinnati in decades, so only hear broadcasts on rare visits, but have little criticism of Larkin, Brantley, Marty, et. al. (though Sadak strikes me as LOUD). I very much agree with most of the points and comments, particularly the “wrong shovel” analysis toward the conclusion.
What happened in the transition after Dick W.? His emphasis on the farm and analytics (you posted the chart from a decade back, but also recall Dick W. commenting on diet, psychology, etc.. Sure, some buzzwords and consultant-speak, but clearly a different direction.
I’ve always thought Dick W. left fully intending to return in a managing partner capacity. Clearly that’s dependent on the ownership group dynamics, but aside from a complete sale to a single outside entity, everything points in that direction.
Krall and staff clearly report to the Castellinis, but what happened in the management group that departed from Dick W.’s groundwork? Managing partner conflict with the other partners, or agreement to not go down that path?
I’d be very interested in Krall et. al. comments on those decisions.
Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy benched All-Star catcher William Contreras mid-game against the Philadelphia Phillies
During the September 24 game, Contreras hit a routine ground ball to Phillies shortstop Trea Turner. Though Turner initially bobbled the baseball, Contreras did not run hard out of the batter’s box.
PLAY THE GAME THE RIGHT WAY
No. That’s playing the game the correct way. Analytics (playing the right way) says he’d be out anyway 9 times out of 10.
Oops Correction. Analytics is the smart way. I still stand by my point.
Interesting, well researched article. I had to read it a couple times to make sure I wasn’t missing something. I don’t think I am, but feel free to correct me if I have.
The author left me with the impression he believes that there is NOT a right way and wrong way to play the game. When of course there is. And every baseball fan knows it when they see it.
As my name implies, I live in Tampa. I watch a lot of Rays baseball, often in person. They don’t clown on pop-ups in foul ground. They run out every ball in play. The stretch singles into doubles, hit their cutoffs, rarely make mistakes on the bases, throw strikes and just in general compete their tails off every game. The Reds generally don’t do any of that, at least not consistently.
One is the right way. The other is the wrong way.
Richard,
At times you frustrate me, anger me but you always intrigue me
I don’t always agree with you but your writing is cogent, tempered and fair
This is good writing-doesn’t mean you won’t p— me off later but keep it up
We all want the same thing-the Reds to win and go to the World Series (“competing “and “championships” are a weenies way out)
Always a Reds fan (unless they leave Cincinnati)
I love this response. I write for people like you.
Thanks.
I need a better definition and understanding of “The Smart Way,” and, yes, I read the full article.
Does it mean building a team and playing the game solely based on analytics — what a computer program tells you to do?
Of course they shouldn’t play the game solely by analytics. But, this is not about computers telling anyone how to play. Stats are merely a record of what happened on the field. They’re the results of the game. They tell us what works most of the time and what doesn’t. To ignore that is foolish. it should inform how teams decide how to play in many situations.
Agree. If the Reds are, in fact, ignoring or under-emphasizing that, then they are being foolish. What they’re currently doing has netted them a solid last-place finish.
Their offense is bad and their pitching is worse. THAT’S WHY they are in last place, not analytics.
I might add that manager and coaches aren’t doing great jobs, either.
Absolutely agree OT.
But a failure to incorporate or give importance to analytics contributes to an organizational failure to recognize and develop championship-caliber ballplayers.
How is this gonna help the Reds?!
A more recent article by the Athletic put the top analytic staffs in the 40s. Cincy no longer inthe top 10. However the same article does rate the Reds research staff as one of the larger. Not sure the distinction between analytic staff and tesearch staff.
Not sure why Reds and Driveline parted ways. You made it sound like it was Kralls move to favor the Art of Hitting approach and that was a bad move. Thought that was Milwaukees approach. Seems like you can use analytics to find players who can execute such an approach. I guess my point is that the Reds probably have not given up on analytics, but as elsewhere, don’t have alot to spend on it.
I would just note that many here chastised Bell who promised to manage to analytics for sticking to the plan, even when it was clear it wasnt working.
It seems to me the Reds are schizophrenic
…wanting to build from within but not wanting to trade their stars to replenish the farm.
If what you are proposing as a way forward is to ramp up analytics to better pick prospects and to develop them better then I would agree.
Thanks, Richard, for the time and effort you put into this article. In a world where we are (for the most part) “fanatics” of the game and our team, your thoughts and observations bring many points to consider. This regardless of how much one “buys into” analytics (I’m one who is growing on that front).
Nobody can deny that wins matter. That’s just a fact and we see it demonstrated in the handful of teams who will continue playing tomorrow and beyond. Only the winners of each series advance. Especially at this point in the season, that is the bottom line. However …
How a team approaches maximizing wins is part analytics, part voodoo, part skill, and part old-fashioned luck. If you add in the “meddling” we’ve seen from the ownership suite that you mention, I’m not sure what we’re relying on. Yes, there are teams similar to us in market size that are successful. But the similarities seem to fade quickly from there.
The frustration of 2026 for our beloved Reds is now over. No more Cowboy to listen to (for the good of his history with the game and all the rants against “analytics”). Sadak can zip up his big bag of words and head off to whatever he does in the offseason. The players who don’t live in Cincy will be packing up and heading elsewhere.
Thanks again for your writing and challenges. RLN is a very special place and I count on that not changing no matter what. Now if we could only change that meddling ownership …
great post Mark!