Despite a stellar pitching duel between two southpaws, the Cincinnati Reds fell to the Atlanta Braves 3-2 in 10 innings to drop the middle game of this mid-week series on Wednesday night at Truist Park.
| Final/10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds (73-85) | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Atlanta Braves (93-65) | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| W: Brent Suter (3-2) L: Luis Mey (0-1) | |||
| Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
Juan Brito led off the game with a 408-ft home run to straightaway center field off Braves starter Chris Sale that quickly put the Reds in front 1-0. Sale would settle down after that home run, retiring 11 of the next 12 batters. That lone hit was a single by Brito, his second hit off Sale.
The Reds threatened to score in both the fourth and fifth innings, but could not capitalize off Sale. With two outs in the fourth, Eugenio Suárez got hit on the hand and Matt McLain hit a bloop single to no-man’s land with the second baseman shifted towards shortstop. However, Braves catcher Drake Baldwin made an incredible threw to catch McLain stealing second base and end the inning. In the fifth, Oswaldo Cabrera got his first hit in the major leagues this season with a dribbler down the first base line that turned into a leadoff double after it got past the outstretched glove of Matt Olson. Cabrera was left standing on second base after Sale struck out Will Banfield and induced back-to-back groundouts.
There was high drama in the sixth. Chris Sale went back to the mound having thrown 86 pitches, but also needing just one strikeout for his 200th strikeout on the season. With every ball thrown, it was very obvious from his reactions that the only reason he was still on the mound was to get that strikeout. De La Cruz flied out to right field. Then Sal Stewart found himself looking at a pitch inside that the umpire called strike three for Sale’s tenth strikeout of the game. If Stewart had used an ABS challenge, it likely would’ve been overturned to a ball. Stewart did not and Sale became the third left-hander in MLB history to record nine seasons with 200+ strikeouts.
Meanwhile, Andrew Abbott was dealing tonight for the Reds. He was getting ahead of batters in the count, working efficiently, and not walking batters. With one out in the third, Abbott walked Brewer Hicklen, but was able to pick him off first base. He then struck out Ha-Seong Kim with an elevated fastball on the very next pitch. Abbott had faced the minimum number of batters through five innings.
In the sixth, Abbott was almost out of the inning unscathed when he threw a changeup across the middle of the plate and Matt Olson hammered it to center field. It was Olson’s 41st home run of the season, and it tied the game at one apiece.
The Reds took a 2-1 lead in the seventh off Robert Suarez. McLain tripled and scored on a Banfield sacrifice fly to shallow left. It was Banfield’s first RBI of his major league career, and it came in his hometown. Abbott, however, gave the lead right back in the bottom of the seventh when he allowed a home run to Austin Riley.
Graham Ashcraft and Pierce Johnson pitched scoreless innings in the 8th and 9th, but so did Dylan Lee and Raisel Iglesias for the Braves. That took the game to extra innings, where former Red Brent Suter recorded three consecutive outs in the top of the inning. In the bottom of the 10th, Ha-Seong Kim did something the Reds could not–lay down a perfect sacrifice bunt to get the ghost runner over to third base. After Luis Mey hit Drake Baldwin, Mauricio Dubón was able to put the ball in play just far enough away from Mey to allow that runner to score and win the game for the Braves.
Key Moment of the Game
Mauricio Dubón’s chopper out in front of the mound allowed DaShawn Keirsey Jr. to score the winning run from third base for the Braves with one out in the bottom of the 10th inning.
Notes Worth Noting
-In his final start of the season, Abbott pitched his longest outing of the year. He allowed two runs on six hits over seven innings with six strikeouts and only one walk. It was not a bad way to end the season for a pitcher who has had his struggles in 2026.
-Coming into tonight’s game, Sale had the best home run rate in all of baseball (0.52 HR/9). He had allowed only nine home runs all season. So, of course, Brito is the one to take him deep tonight. You really can’t predict baseball.
Up Next for the Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves
Thursday, September 24, 7:15 PM EDT
Brady Singer (6-15, 5.67 ERA) vs. Tyler Mahle (7-10, 3.81 ERA)
Good pitching by Abbott. Decent pitching by bullpen. Poor hitting by Reds 2-3-4-5 hitters, who were actually hit by the ball (Suarez HBP) more than they hit the ball (0 for 14).
Given that they hung there against Chris Sale, decent effort that just fell short.
Sale was traded by CWS in 2016 and BOS in 2023. None of the five players traded for him are playing significant roles in MLB now.
… hung IN there …
Well, watching Jeff Carr on Locked On Reds tonight according to run differential the Reds should have 10 less wins. Tito has made mistakes for sure and I won’t argue against that but maybe he is worth more than what we think. We just have a poor team no matter which way you look at it and that’s not on Tito. We all know who’s lap that falls in.
Look, I’m a stats guy. I think that’s fairly easy to see given my 20+ years of writings on the internet about baseball.
But there’s a serious misunderstanding and misuse of run differential and what it’s actually useful for. “Should have more/less wins/losses” is not how it should be used even though that’s almost exclusively how it is used.
For sure. Just think about how that stretch of three games that they got outscored something like 47-10, including 20-0, throws off that stat.
I personally dislike the stat.
In the days of blowouts, and the use of position players to pitch, numbers become skewed.
Bad teams get blown out more often. (Reds)
But, the Reds were better in close games.
It might be as simple as the depth of the bullpen.
Their ‘A’ relievers were pretty good., while the ‘B’ guys were terrible.
That’s why the blowouts happened.
Then there was that month when they had no ‘A’ guys getting innings
Yeah. Like all stats is can be misused.
I don’t know much about stats.
2025 Reds 95 OPS+ 8.6 WAR batters, 113 ERA+ 25.8 WAR pitchers
It appears that pitching was the biggest reason for Reds modest success last year.
2026 Reds (so far) 94 OPS+ 9.3 WAR batters, 86 ERA+ 8.9 WAR pitchers (similar batters, worse pitchers)
It appears that pitching is the biggest reason for Reds disappointing results this year
Jeff Carr was probably using the Baseball Reference version of the Pythagorean expectation when he said the Reds “should” have 10 fewer wins. The formula was originally put forward by Bill James and has been modified over the years.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/2026.shtml
Here is a link for anyone who wants to think themselves dizzy looking at the math process and the evolution of the formula.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation
Personally, I think looking at the mean, median, and mode of run differential of a team compared to the league or specific other teams can be telling.
Or maybe just check how often a team uses its non-pitcher mop-up man as a pitcher compared to other teams or the league. 😉
For the record, Jose Trevino has made 7 pitching appearances in 2026.
Want a stat? Divide his pitching appearances by the number of team games and call it his MopUpRate. I got 4.4%.
It could also be calculated as a team stat 😉
Run differential is meant to give a snapshot of how a team should be compiling wins/loss given the runs scored and runs surrendered. Because there is so much variance in baseball at any given time, a won/loss record may not reflect how a team is actually playing. Luck, clutch hitting, bullpen performance at any one time in a season will skew those records. Anyone can attribute the difference to the manager or whoever, but you’re doing that at your own peril.
Run Dif can give an indication that a team is over or under performing it’s run environment.
Yes, that is correct. The run differential analysis, or the so called Pythagorean guide, only tells you want you want to know.
The Reds have given up a lot more runs than scored.
The run differential and the actual wins-losses tells us that sometimes they (the Reds) really get creamed (20-0 by the Brewers for example?).
Wins and losses are real. The Run Differential analysis tells you something else.
All the many Advanced Metrics tell people something, but these kinds of meta-analysis statistics are not only (or exclusively) way to evaluate a team or a player.
Watching the games is not the be all and end all by itself either, but that also tells you how players actually perform and by itself, is also very valuable.
Fundamentals Oswaldo can’t get a frickin bunt down against Suter or hit the ball to the right side of the infield. McLain would have had a good chance of scoring on Stephenson’s grounder. In the bottom of the 10th, Stewart and Stephenson fighting over a bunt. And Brantly saying you got to do a better job on communicating. Awful. This is Game 158 and we are talking about learning this. And McLain’s attempted steal of second. Geno having no thoughts of going home? Run yourself out of an inning. Your offense is terrible and you are giving away outs and do not know how to bunt.
I know these games are not important unless you are a marginal young guy but a utility player can not get a bunt down. How basic is that? Was hoping maybe he learned some fundamentals on the Yanks. Think again….
McLain’s out was the 3rd out…Suarez making it home wouldn’t have counted…doubted he would have crossed the plate before the tag was made on McLain.
Biggest ? was McLain at 3rd on his triple, no outs…I might have pinch hit for Banfield and tried a squeeze. Of course a sac fly would have worked to, which Banfield did get later in the game.
Understood. Reds catchers seldom throw in that situation with a speedier runner trying to steal. So why was McLain trying to steal? Francona thinking the catcher would not throw and greed of an extra run when you are already ahead? Just doesn’t sound like the right baseball move to me with 2 outs, man on 3B, and your #7 hitter batting. I understand we have a pathetic offense, but to give up that run on 3B without a fight? I might buy that a double steal might get you an element of surprise but Geno didn’t move. Maybe fundamentals isn’t the right term. Managerial mistake?
Isn’t your sample size (one) a bit small to state Oswaldo can’t get a bunt down? Please know I’ve said before we certainly need more SFs and Sac bunts instead of strikeouts.
Not sure if it was posted here, but ESPN has an article about ABS challenges. Reds did very well. Best in baseball overall %-wise, 4th best by batters and 2nd best for catchers/pitchers. Sal won the most batter challenges over the course of the year by a significant margin. Stephenson most the 2nd most catching challenges.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/48305211/2026-mlb-abs-challenge-system-tracker-team-player-rankings
QB1’s success at ABS will factor into his next deal. ABS isn’t going away and might expand (my speculation).
Tyler’s challenges have been smart.
It seems like he’ll mostly challenge when there are 2 strikes.
Also, when RISP challenges, which are more impactful.
I support Tyler’s challenges
His % falls, as most catchers probably do, in the 8th inning or later when they have challenges to burn, and take more chances, which is understandable
I think batters should only challenge with RISP. In game altering moments.
Never with bases empty…early in the count.
Very interesting article in the Athletic that this is actually all Big Bobs fault that he won’t let Krall make trades like the Rays and Brewers. Of course, it also brings up how bad Krall’cs trades have been…. So… A real chicken and egg of stupidity.
+100,000
That’s been my position. I don’t give Krall a free pass, but ownership still calls the vast majority of the shots.
I have given up on 2026 ever since the lack of (2027) adds at the deadline. 4 games out of the wildcard; why not grade afew 2027 guys and start your run then? Now the task is as overwhelming as before with everybody competing in the auction. Spending is going to have to be enormous or we will be left with rolling out many of the present actors with similar results. We tried that this year believing Benson, Hayes, McLain, Marte, and Hinds were going to be better players. A wasted Elly year as many are saying. To me the question at hand is are we going to waste another one or are we going to spend to bring in some talent? This is a joke counting on Louisville guys to turn us into a first or second place team. And unfortunately that has been the organization approach the last 2 years. Time to realize it isn’t working.
Yep, that pretty well sums up my position as well.
Disappointing loss, but hats off to Sale for gutting it out. Let’s take them down tonight. They will start working to set up their WC run (hope they get the Stupid Cubs and pound them). Then on to three more in Toronto that mean slightly north of zero to either team. Just want to see Elly get to 30/30 in the next 4 games.
Same here.
And for Sal to hit 2 grand slams over the next 4 games
Brito is taking advantage of his opportunities. He gives quality at-bats and doesn’t spazz out and chase like HRod, Jorge, Marte, etc. I like McLain as a utility guy, but if Brito is gonna hit like this you have to make him a starter.
Methinks that error by Hayes might’ve been the final nail in the coffin. He simply whiffed on a grounder that couldn’t be more routine.
Memo to Cabrera—the first rule of bunting is to bunt at STRIKES. Twice he expanded the zone.
If you are Oswaldo Cabrera and battling to stay on roster, you have to nail the little things such as getting a bunt down. If you can’t be counted on to perform in those situations, why are you on the team? I’m fairly confident that TJ Friedl would have gotten McLain to third.
Embarassing for the brass. Rave about this waiver wire guy and then having him look like one of the Reds Louisville club. They have to know they have failed and need a massive strategy change or 2027 will be the same.
Getting Cabrera cheap on waivers isn’t a sin, and letting him play a little at the end won’t break our hearts unless every game is a must-win — which obviously isn’t the case.
I think the problem will be if they insist that Ozzie is an acceptable utility player due to being able to play 7 positions. Hint: He only needs to play one at a time. Brito is that guy and Arroyo probably is. Marte is that guy. Steer is that guy.
I won’t believe Ozzie is anything but somebody who gets some at-bats because it doesn’t matter anyhow. He does play pool pretty well on balls to the right.
Bingo. We had one of these guys in Espy and that worked really fine for breaks and short term ailments. Operative word is one. Not 3-5 like Brito, McLain, Arias, Arroyo, etc. Thatapproach is called cheap and ineffective. We don’t need 230 BA/600 OPS utility players. Focus on a few 800 OPS 2B, CF, RF, and Cs. Nobody said this mess was going to be easy to fix in Elly’s tenure.
It was poor technique for sure.
He squared at it nicely, then totally jabbed the bat at 2 non-strikes.
Methinks Oscar Mayer by you.
Reds are now in 5th in the Draft lottery! Keep it up!
Only a game and a half between them at 5 and the 11th slot, so it’s time for a patented Reds end of season meaningless game winning streak to tank their draft stock and miss out of the elite college talent.
Your point is well taken. But the 2027 draft is far down the list of priorities for the next 6-12 months. Elly may not even be around in 2029 when this stud shows up. Our problems are right in front of us and if they can’t be fixed for 2027, they are not going to be fixed for 2029.
I would expect any of those three, as long as they are healthy, to be ready sometime in 2028, potentially early.
Sale is tough but matters little who we have faced this year cause its just way way too much swing and miss.Reds unable to manufacture runs this year has been a big big problem.When you just don’t hit then to expect players to hit the other way or bunt runners or even just hit a fly ball to score its not going to happen.Tito trying to do all he can do to win games.Sometimes the right thing isn’t the best thing if a player can’t do it or never has done it.Have to remember him asking Marte in the 8 hole to bunt setting up the 9 hole guy and somebody saying he had never bunted before.Brito seems to be a player but I hope they don’t try to make him in to an outfielders.Its reasonable to ask why MMC is trying to steal second?Great outing by AA and well its 4 more then we look to the off season.CES is putting up 2023 numbers with Baltimore.Reds may regret moving him when he still had options left
I don’t comment on this site very often, but I read all of the comments by the regulars. I particularly enjoy Oldtimers input. He and I are probably close to the same age based on his remembering all the stories of the 50’s Redlegs and Crosley Field. Keep on keepin’ on Oldtimer!
Oldtimer is….the most interesting man on Redleg nation! 🙂
Stay thirsty, friends!
We all see the little ways the Reds fail to execute—bunts, secondary leads off third, not putting the ball in play with 2 strikes, not hitting behind the runner with a man on second and no outs, pitch sequencing, endless walks…..the cumulative effect of these failures over 162 games are significant……and just in general the team doesn’t bring the intensity day in day out as evidenced by all these shutouts where they don’t even get 5 hits. These are many of the same issues that plagued the team in the David Bell era and now plague the team under Tito. I would contend that the two are similar in their buddy cop approach to accountability.
Tito the other day: “I don’t want them to ever feel like we’re going to scream at them if they make a mistake.”
Abbott: “Some days, even myself, we come out flat,” Abbott said. “We come out and we’re semi-defeated against a team that might be a tad bit better than us, or worse than us.”
Burns: “Maybe adding more leaders on the team that can push the younger guys,”
Does any of this indicate there’s a culture of accountability and excellence? In the absence of veteran leaders who police that clubhouse, doesn’t that responsibility fall on the manager?
Like birds migrating south in the fall, it’s almost time for the team scribes to write their season wrap-up puff pieces about how it’s a good clubhouse, that the guys all get along, and that they stuck together to the end. Like the companion article blaming injuries, it’s exhausting to read every year.
We all know when it comes to motivation there’s guys who need a kick in the pants and some who need a pat on the back. We see examples of the latter all the time, but by all indications there is little of the former. Then you think about managers like Counsell and Murphy….Pinella…..Davey Johnson. Makes you wonder if Tito has the fire left in his belly to drag this team out of last place.
Post of the year. This is exactly the issue with the whole organization. We have owners who are average and dont hold people accountable, who hire people who are average and hold no one accountable, who dont hold their people accountable, who dont hold their players accountable etc. You dont have to yell or scream at your players, but do you even talk to them when they dont execute the basics or show effort? I agree with Abbot, everyone comes out flat occasionally but everyone on certain days? I have seen 2 occasions this year where a player on another team was put on the bench, 1 in the middle of the game, for lack of effort or basic execution.
In Cincinnati you can hit a deep fly ball to the fence in center field and still have the bat in your hand and not have made it to first base yet —and play the rest of the game and start the next day.
Of course, we don’t really know what goes on behind closed doors. Rarely do any teams air their dirty laundry in public. You mentioned a few examples. I like what Murphy and Counsell did.
There might have been some “pants kicking” with Marte this year. They begged him to give effort, and he never seemed to respond. So they optioned him down to AAA.
Yeah, the other term for it is — win the innings, win the games.
@SoS. A great post which sums up neatly a lot of the things I am thinking (but lack the ability to succinctly scribe it out). Every one just seems to carry on like a robot including many of the players. At this point, my hope for the rest of the year is having P. Murphy and the Brew Crew run the Dodgers out of the playoffs.
Marge Schott did not want to hire Lou Piniella. She wanted Dallas Green. GM Murray Cook tried but couldn’t reach a deal with Green. He suggested Piniella to Mrs. Schott. She said (more or less) Who’s He. But Cook hired Piniella anyway.
Excellent article from Rosenthal. A more honest assessment than usual.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7622943/2026/09/24/cincinnati-reds-castellini-ownership-front-office/?unlocked_article_code=1.DlE.YCI8.a4bdicrHWD7R&source=emp_shared_article&smid=ta-ios-share
Yeah….”How dos the Tampa Bay Rays keep winning?”…..and then ignoring the answer.
We, as fans, are stuck. We have no impact on how the team is run. Krall and Meador work for the Management Group (ie, Phil Castellini now) and do what they are largely told to do, with the budget they are given.
Next season will be like this season, and the season before. Nothing substantial will change. This is what Phil and the other owners have decided, de facto, based on their budget and how they staff the Front Office. Phil C. has a fiduciary responsibility to the other owners (and his family business) to return profits and earnings, and not go into having financial losses (big contracts for free agents). In the long run, though, that kind of thinking is leading to stagnation and then decline. Fans will simply stop coming to games, or watching the Reds on TV.
Where will you go for the money then, Phil?
Trying to sign Kyle Schwarber to a big contract was a nice gesture, but the Reds need a lot more than one guy hitting a bunch of homers. In retrospect, that would have been a costly mistake…because the year would have turned out about the same, and Schwarber would have been unhappy stuck here.
Elly will not sign an extension, Scott Boras has repeatedly said he will try the Free Agent market. Trade him and get talent in return that the Reds have some control over. Nick Krall will bungle that, though, and not get bupkis of any value. The Reds, for the foreseeable future, will oscillate between 3rd and 5th place in the Central division.
If we can’t sign our superstar player, then that is a dilemma. I will cite Sal Stewart and Tyler Stephenson. Why in the heck would they want to sign longer term with a team that chooses third place or wildcard as its goal? Tyler already knows he is going to have multiple offers comparable and probably better than what a non interested team will offer him. Sal, I would think would be willing to follow Tyler’s path and make $5 for 4-5 more years. Personally, I would want a shot at first place and we are 26 games distant from that.
Not all putting you in the middle of this mess David. I just think there is a higher importance level on resigning Elly than perhaps you. Without him, I could foresee this plague continuing into the next decade because of the effect on other good players.
From the Athletic Windup:
Krall wanted to build a strong base of young talent, then enhance it by trading established players at peak value when they are still affordable and under club control.
I think most teams especially in the lower half of payrolls have this dream idea that they’re going to build through the farm system, and perpetually be good, and be wise with their young players, and kind of hopefully always stay in that 82-90 win zone, maybe occasionally have a down year winning 75 games, but bounce back the next year.
So they hold onto their prospects like gold, and often don’t make a big move/trade out of that desire to stay consistently competitive, rather than trying to shoot the moon and go for a title, or a deep playoff run.
Even the Brewers, Guardians, Rays…very successful for the level of payroll they have, but they never win the World Series. Often because of the teams like the Dodgers, huge payroll teams, may out talent them at that top/top level. But also, because I think they still are holding onto those prospects.
Now those teams at least have been successful at developing often through the minors, and then making shrewd trades, free agent signings.
The Reds though…they held onto McLain, Marte, Greene, Abbot, Lodolo, Steer, now Rodriguez, Arroyo, Collier, CES. The problem may be lack of developing them correctly, but also overvaluing their prospects. There’s been times in the last 2-3 years where they could’ve traded some of those players and probably received some very good major league players with the right deal.
I was looking back at the Brew Crew…their trades for Christian Yelich and William Contreras really were big and smart. They gave up one player for Conteras! And he’s done little in the Majors, Esteury Ruiz? Yelich, has had some great seasons, and not so great, but overall he brought legitimacy, talent, consistency to the Brewers. Reds have made a few good trades, but not many on that level I can remember.
Who could the Reds have received if they traded CES in 2023, offseason 2024, or traded Greene, Lodolo at a strategic time? Or traded Hector Rodriguez, Arroyo sometime this year or this offseason, before they came up to the big leagues, and maybe potentially have lost trade value? I hope Rodriguez, Arroyo are good for the Reds, but I’m not sure on either player right now if they can hit big league pitching or play consistent defense in the bigs.