Many Cincinnati area sports fans probably didn’t get a chance to hear Barry Larkin speak about the Reds organization following Sunday’s game in what was his final broadcast of the year as the team hits the road (Larkin does not travel with the team for road games) for the final week of the regular season. It’s been a down season for Cincinnati and the NFL has begun. The Bengals were playing at the same time and the NFL is king and has been America’s most popular sport for nearly 50 years now. A team with aspirations for a title is going to draw far more interest than a team 20-something games out of first place. But those tuned into the Reds heard Larkin go in on the organization.
Following the final out of a 9-1 loss to the Cubs, Larkin had this to say:
I think it’s a fitting end to a disappointing season, at least here in Cincinnati. I think all the fans believed that this was going to be a much better year. That they believed, as did we, we talked this offseason about playoff aspirations, getting back to where we were last year. It just never, ever happened. I think these last three weeks of baseball, playing against some of the better teams that are going to be going to the postseason really illustrates how far behind we are at this big league level. And change has to happen. This city deserves better than that. And I know every player down there feels that. But something has to give. We have to get better because we are so, so far behind.
Those are strong words for anyone. But Barry Larkin isn’t just anyone. He’s one of the voices that the fans of the team hear for half of the season and probably put a lot of faith in to know what he’s talking about. He’s also a Hall of Fame player and one who spent his entire career with the organization from the day he was drafted back in the 1980’s. Larkin is also from Cincinnati and grew up as a Reds fan.
But all of that is less important than this: Barry Larkin is a senior advisor to the front office. He’s spent 10 years in that role or one that was basically titled the same thing, and several of those years were directly as the senior advisor to Phil Castellini, who is now the team President and CEO.
Last week we learned that Nick Krall expects himself, as well as the rest of the front office and Terry Francona to return for 2027. He said that based on conversations that he’s had with ownership. All of those people are why the team is where it is today. Nick Krall said last week that he takes blame for what has happened this season because he’s the president of baseball operations. He and Brad Meador, the teams general manager, built this team. They have overseen trades, non-trades we don’t know about, and other aspects that have led to a point where they are currently 25.5 games out of first place, 12 games under .500, and have one of the worst farm systems in baseball.
Barry Larkin is right that things have to chance and that the organization is so, so far behind. Some things are just about out of control for front offices. Pitchers get hurt for every team and it doesn’t seem that anyone has figured out how to keep an elbow from blowing up without warning. Losing Hunter Greene, for example, is not on the front office. And before any of you run to the comments section to talk about how he knew his elbow hurt last October – the doctors told him to not have surgery and those weren’t Reds doctors. And the team can’t force a guy to get a surgery if he doesn’t want it, either. So please, do not do that and let us all live in a sane, rational world while we still can.
Cincinnati had a handful of players step forward in 2026. Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart, and Chase Burns all played at a high level this year. Julian Garcia came out of nowhere to be a good relief option and a few of the veteran relievers like Emilio Pagan and Brock Burke pitched well. Tyler Stephenson showed up for a few months in a big way after a very poor start to the year.
But besides that, just about everything went wrong for nearly everyone else. TJ Friedl’s production fell off a cliff. Matt McLain’s bat still hasn’t recovered from his 2024 shoulder surgery. Ke’Bryan Hayes hasn’t hit in years and this has been his worst season yet. Young guys like Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo crushed Triple-A but couldn’t hit at all in MLB this season when given multiple chances. Nearly every pitcher brought up from the minors outside of Garcia got obliterated. Nearly every starter outside of Chase Burns got obliterated, too.
While not everything went wrong, almost everything did. You can’t exactly plan for that. But when it happens to nearly every player there’s probably something going on there more than “this is the worst luck we’ve ever seen”, too. Identifying the issue(s) and fixing them is a big key to change. If bringing everyone back who was involved in the decision making process and the development and coaching process happens, though, it’s tough to see how much is going to change.
Wise words from a wise baseball man. Preach it, Barry.
Hey Jedi. Yes wise words but he said nothing that was not plain to see and has been for a very long time. Only difference is Barry is beloved by Reds fans (he’s always been my favorite player in all of baseball) and is employed by the Reds front office and broadcasting team. It’s time (long, long past time) for this franchise to finally find some sort of direction, culture and plan to create a winning team, instead of year after year putting bandaids on gaping wounds just enough to keep the masses placated.
I agree redfanorbust! It has been frustrating.
I appreciate his perspective. I expected a little better and predicted 82-80 with a healthy Hunter Greene. I thought playoffs were maybe but a long shot.
Barry Larkin played on Reds teams with losing records in 9 of his 19 seasons as a Red. Those teams had players like Eric Davis, Paul, O’Neill, Jose Rijo, Reggie Sanders, Dave Parker, Adam Dunn, and Ken Griffey, Jr (among others). Three HOF-ers (Larkin, Davis, Parker) on the 1986 and 1987 teams.
Arguably those 19 years should NOT have yielded 9 losing teams. They had some success (1990 WS, 1995 playoffs, 1999 Wild Card play-in game) and some bad teams (notably 2001).
I agree with him in principle. There are three options. Make better draft choices (that will take 3-5 years to reap the benefits). Make better trades (with very few trade chips to offer). Sign better FA (Dave Parker in 1983 remains the best Reds FA signing ever).
All of those will take 3-5 years to come to fruition. The Reds pitching was notably BAD this year. Almost 26 WAR last year. Not quite 9 WAR this year.
Few here on RLN remember (and I barely do) but the Reds were terrible for 10 years post WW2. Gabe Paul made a conscious effort to sign black and Latin players (uncommon in 1950s) and that really paid off. He made some good trades and some bad ones. There was no draft then, but Reds scouts signed some good players (Jim Maloney as an example; he was a SS in HS, but the Reds saw his potential as a P) and just missed on Brooks Robinson in mid 1950s. Reds were runner-up to Orioles for his signature. He picked BAL because their 3B George Kell was about to retire and the Reds 3B Don Hoak was an All-Star with many years left in his career. True story. Brooks told me that himself in 1985 at Billy Goat Tavern in Chicago.
Correction. TWO HOF-ers on 1986 & 87 teams. Yes, I really had a Cheezborger, Cheezborger, Cheezborger (SLN reference) and a beer with Brooks in 1985.
Three Hall-of-Famers in ’86: Larkin, Parker and Perez.
By golly. I was right after all. Just got the name wrong.
If Bill Murray served me a Cheezborger, I wouldn’t eat it.
He’s a Cubs fan.
Billy Goat (Sam Siani) runs the tavern on Lower Wacker. The SNL parody was a skit (not real).
What is SLN?
I appreciate the overview, OT.
Great post OT
Larkin usually doesn’t say much but he said a lot today that hopefully carries a lot of weight.
The Reds are the laughing stock of baseball especially if they don’t make major changes.
Garbage front office. Tired of this mess as well. It’s a terrible Free agency this year and they will get out bid for what little talent there is. They are the New Pirates.
I recall Phil Castellini telling a Rosie Reds group in 2023 about the difficulty of small-market teams competing — something about certain teams being out of contention on opening day.
If that’s his attitude and philosophy — and he now runs the organization — then it’s likely filtered down the food chain to the front office and, naturally, we are where we are today.
If an organization doesn’t believe it can fairly compete, due to a disadvantage or anything else, it won’t.
End result in 2026: last place.
Phil makes excuses for why HE is not better at being a managing partner (which he is now, because his father, Bob Castellini is not up to it anymore).
He should listen to himself. He quits before he even starts.
They won’t try, he (Phil) won’t try, and so they condemn themselves to the same cycle of failure. They will stick with Nick Krall, make excuses about “all the injuries”, and do the same thing next year (2027) and beyond, and blame the whole “small market psychosis” for not being more competitive. Nick Krall is likely not stupid, but he does the wrong things for the team because
1) He fundamentally does not have the organization or the methods to properly evaluate talent. There are plenty of examples of this.
2) He squanders his financial resources on players/pitchers that the Reds should not bother with. Numerous commenters here have said this over and over, and it is largely true.
The White Sox went from absolutely terrible to being in contention to win a division (albeit, a very weak division) in one year. With the right kind of personnel management, the money to go after the right free agents, the Reds could be markedly better next year. But alas, it will not happen.
The White Sox endured three straight 100+ L seasons before getting to .500 this year. They had talent in their farm system and Chicago is a desirable location for FA to sign.
Their 2026 success did not fall off a turnip truck.
@Oldtimer…..Yes, that’s true, but the bottom line is that with better player management and acquisition, the Reds could be better next year (2027). It is actually a real possibility that they are worse, and the if the 2027 season plays out to 162 games, the Reds could lose 100 games next year. Or maybe I am all wrong.
But they were very pleasantly surprised by the year Sal Stewart had in 2026, that was totally unexpected. What if he regresses in 2027, and only bats .250 and hits 20 HR? Stephenson will be gone, will the pitching be any better? Who fills the gap? Will they exercise the option on Suarez?
David,
great point. As a small market team, the Reds have to make smart, cunning moves. I do not believe this FO and/or ownership is capable of that.
They bring in a future hall of fame manager and we have a terrible year.
The FO needs an enama.
It depends on the Reds roster. The 1982 team lost 101 games with a few decent position players, some players (Bench and Cedeno plus Seaver) past their MLB prime, and some pretty good pitchers, including Mario Soto.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/1982.shtml
Batters OPS+ was 88. Pitchers ERA+ was 101.
I think we all know besides 4 or 5 players we are a long ways from making a deep run in the playoffs. The pitching staff is not good and almost never one regressed in the minors with regards to pitching this season. When someone like Larkin talks in this tone in a public statement I think he is truly concerned about the next year or two.
The Reds used 32 (yes, 3-2) pitchers in 2026. Exactly 7 had an ERA+ of 100 or better.
Old timer we are going to drum you out of the Old Guys Union if you continue to use statistics like ERA+
Thank you, Doug.
Again, it’s unfair to put Arroyo up there with Marte and McClain. He’s had like 150 ABs for the Reds and that’s not enough. He should get a longer look. Benson yes.
It’s not unfair at all. Arroyo did not hit.
Don’t confuse that with me saying he will never hit or that he shouldn’t get another opportunity if he appears to be the best option.
Trades have certainly been a problem for this front office, in my opinion. Both lack of trades and results of the trades that were made. When they had prospect capital to trade from they did not use it. So many prospects have died on the vine. Lots of whiffs on the trade returns when quality players have been traded away too. Trade deadlines and offseasons are all too often disappointing and frustrating.
On the 2026 team, I think Trevino, Steer, Burke, and Myers were good trades by the Reds.
Walt Jocketty was very good at making trades about 15 years ago. (RIP Mr. Jocketty)
The players drafted in the 1st round during Jocketty’s reign were not good.
I remember Jocketty securing old Cardinal retreads.
Many of Jocketty’s trades were good but not all.
He signed Aroldis Chapman in lieu of a draft.
If you want to go back and look up his draft picks, go ahead. Here are some of his top (#1) draft picks.
2010: Yasmani Grandal, C, Miami (No. 12)
Grandal never reached the big leagues with Cincinnati. He was traded in December 2011 to the Padres in the Mat Latos deal. But Grandal has enjoyed a long career with multiple teams and is a two-time All-Star.
2009: Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona State University (No. 8) Leake signed late in 2009 and went directly to the Major Leagues with the Reds in ’10. In 168 games from 2010-15, he was 62-47 with a 3.87 ERA.
2008: Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami (No. 7)
Alonso was a highly coveted slugger who was blocked by Joey Votto at first base. He played 69 games for the Reds in 2010-11 before he was traded to the Padres with Grandal and Edinson Vólquez in the Latos deal. Alonso had a 10-year big league career.
“I think a couple of tweaks here and there and I think we’ll be very competitive next year.” – Walt Jocketty in 2015 before a 64 win season where he held onto Cueto and Leake to the point where they were rentals in trades and we got little value back, causing a several year rebuild which eventually forced him into retirement a few years too late, from the Reds perspective.
His trades of Cueto, Leake, and Chapman were horrific.
Jocketty was jettisoned by the Cardinal owners because he did not embrace analytics. He did NOTHING for the Reds at the trade deadline when they were in the playoff hunt in the 2010’s.
Why do you worship Walt Jocketty?
First you say Jocketty “was very good at making trades.” Now you say “…not all.”
I beg to differ, but Walt was another incompetent front office leader, which seems to be the norm for the Castellini’s.
No “home runs” were drafted by Jocketty when he ran the Red’s FO. A team that needs to depend on making the correct 1st Round selection every year did not benefit from Walter’s selections at all.
2015 t stephenson
2014 howard, blandino
2013 ervin, lorenzen
2012 travieso, winker, gelalich
2011 r stephenson
2010 grandal
2009 leake, boxberger
There is a recurring theme here. They inability for the Castellini’s to find comeptent front office leadership.
Yonder Alonso was drafted under Krivsky’s regime.
Jocketty was hired as general manager of the St. Louis Cardinals on October 14, 1994. When Anheuser-Busch sold the team following the 1995 season, the new ownership chose to retain Jocketty. He was instrumental in bringing new manager Tony La Russa, whom he had worked with in Oakland, to St. Louis. During his tenure he traded for Mark McGwire, Scott Rolen, Larry Walker, Chris Carpenter, Jim Edmonds, Jason Isringhausen and Adam Wainwright, solidifying the team that compiled seven National League Central Division titles (1996, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2006), two National League championships (2004 and 2006), and one World Series championship (2006). The Cardinals had seven straight winning seasons under Jocketty, including 100+ win seasons in 2004 and 2005. Jocketty won The Sporting News Executive of the Year Award three times, in 2000, 2004, and 2010.
Jocketty won NL Central titles for Reds in 2010 and 2012. First by Reds since 1995. None since.
Chapman was traded in 2016 due to off-the-field issues.
Who cares what WJ did with the Cardinals. He did next to nothing to help the Reds. The principal players that won the division while WJ was in control were obtained and developed by his predecessors.
Again, WJ did nothing at the deadline to help bolster the Red’s playoff runs.
Leake was they only good pick under WJ. Grandal was an average type catcher, who made some money in the majors.
WJ’s trading record, like Krall’s, was horrible.
Again, a prerequisite to lead a Castellini front office.
Grandal had 20.2 bWAR in his career. The average bWAR is 9 for a draftee in slots 10-15 of MLB draft.
Likewise in addition to Grandal (20.2) and Leake (16.3 bWAR), Tyler Stephenson (10.5 bWAR and counting), Lorenzen (10.0 bWAR), Jesse Winker (6.0 bWAR), and Boxberger (4.0 bWAR) all exceeded the average WAR per their draft slots.
They were all above average picks. I agree WJ doesn’t have the best record in trades, but drafts under his direction obviously were pretty solid.
Name the last two Reds GMs to win division titles (in past 35 seasons).
Hint: Walt Jocketty (2) and Jim Bowden (1)
WJ did not win the division titles, the players obtained by his predecessors did.
Does anyone know how to calculate WAR?
I think the core of really excellent players would turn 3 games around every month and the record is suddenly competitive — IF the rest of the roster was league average or a little better. The occasional lightning in a bottle … it’s still not something the “back of the baseball card” can support, and it seems that’s what the FO has either pursued accidentally or naively. I know this: They don’t fire the players (except TJ Friedl), and the front office has decided to not fire itself.
This organization is such a comprehensive failure in all aspects that it beggars belief. Taken by themselves, many of the moves made by Krall and co have made sense. But collectively they have flopped completely.
The Reds need to figure out, first and foremost, if their philosophy is working. If it isn’t, or they aren’t following the one they say will work, that’s gotta change from the top down.
I don’t lay every failure at Krall’s feet, but he is the one who needs to fall on the sword. That’s the nature of being the GM but not the owner. The general but not the king. The next GM, who needs to be from outside this organization, will have his work cut out for him.
Thank you, Doug. Your last sentence says it all. Change is needed and Phil Castellini should appoint Barry Larkin as president of Red’s baseball operations. To say Barry is prepared is an understatement. (HOF player, well-educated and native Cincinnatian). Phil Castellini is in charge and that’s the reality. He should get it done.
I don’t know that Larkin is well suited for POBO duties in the year 2027 given the many things we have heard him say during broadcasts. He does not seem to have the firmest grasp on a lot of statistical stuff that one absolutely has to in today’s game.
I think Barry Larkin’s name as Red’s POBO would enable the Club to hire statisticians who have a firm grasp on the statistical stuff needed in today’s game.
“I think Barry Larkin’s name as Red’s POBO would enable the Club to hire statisticians who have a firm grasp on the statistical stuff needed in today’s game.”
Yeah. It’s like being President. He’d have a big cabinet helping him. 🙂
I don’t know how serious he was but Votto, when asked recently about being POBO, said, “Give me the job right now”.
I hear you Doug. The bottom line is that ownership MUST go outside to get competent front office leadership. After 21 years the Castellini’s truly DO NOT know how to build a championship roster. This circus must end.
I’d be a huge supporter of Votto as POBO. Pretty sure with his attention to statistical detail as a player, he would build an FO focused on what makes players succeed.
So it may be that Joey, after a few years of carefree retirement, is ready for a thankless task?
Future headline: “The Reds part ways with HOF and team announcer, Barry Larkin. ”
Cause why look inward when you can fire people and make a PowerPoint about how unfair it all is?
Not much more to say. Came into the year as a middling org and stepped back in almost every aspect.
I believe real change will only come with new ownership but I don’t see huge demand for small market teams.
Pretty hopeless.
Getting “new ownership” has been a mantra here for a long time. “Sell the team, Bob!” has been a slogan for commenters here for years, when the team had disappointing seasons, made stupid acquisitions, did the wrong thing.
The Reds are not getting new ownership. I have not been at ownership meetings, but judging by external observation, nothing is going to change. Nothing is said, nothing is talked about in public, it does not appear that any of the partners speak out about making changes or are dissatisfied. Phil Castellini makes comments from time to time, but none of them are positive about improving the team, just complaints about how “unfair” the structure of baseball is.
They are content to own the team, and collect what profits may come, and watch as ML franchises appreciate in value.
The Reds have been a middling team since 1882 when NL started.
Exceptions here and there (notably 1970s) but a .500 W-L team for its NL history.
I’m glad Barry finally said something worthwhile.
I wouldn’t be so pessimistic about next year but Singer(gone), Abbott and Lowder have been absolutely terrible this year. When our small market teams’ starting pitching is gone it is really hard to turn the offense around.
We can sign a few free agents on the offensive side but free agent starting pitchers don’t want to come to great American ballpark.
Add in the fact that this off seasons free agent hitting crop is probably the worst ever. Other teams can look to make an effective trade from their farm system but we can’t do that because it’s the worst it’s been in 10 years.
I’m not one to blame Krall for everything but he is the one that hires the development staff and outside of first rounders not much development has happened here in 5 years.
We really have to question the pitching philosophy, the minor league coaches, the development staff, the people in charge of amateur scouting and pro scouting.
We constantly see minor leaguers brought up who don’t hit, don’t field, can’t play multiple positions, and don’t know how to run the bases.
To me, this is not an organization you simply bring back intact and let them try again. They have failed and major sports clubs can’t afford to give you chance after chance to get it right. Sound businesses don’t work that way.
Could not have said it better myself.
Thanks for the post and comments Doug. Just seems like this ownership group is simply interested in “good enough to keep the fans coming out” to make some money instead of really trying to improve. While I’m always glad when new ownership keeps the team in town, that’s not enough. This group treats this franchise like they built it as a family business and it’s their baby so who are we to criticize it! Their net worth has exploded, despite their efforts, as billionaires bid huge amounts for any pro franchise that hits the market. If they were really smart and serious they would have consistently hired real baseball people and held them accountable over time to force changes as needed. We’ve all seen this across sports. More money sure helps but doesn’t always work out (just spell METS), you need smart baseball people running your system especially for small/mid market teams. This group would be worth so much more if they woke up even just 5-6 years ago to clean house and turn “their baby” over to the right decision-makers. Lots of things went wrong this year and the lack of depth in the system was highlighted which comes back to the decision makers. Very frustrating but still hoping for change!
Larkin needs to put together a buyer’s group and take over. I don’t like him as a field manager, but he may make a good owner.
I mean what he said was spot on. I too, am hopeful something changes. Larkin saying that to me shows he cares,and would put a winning team together. If he was a gm.
Hey, I think I got a billion dollars in change lost in the sofa cushions. Just gimme a minute to find it.
I say this as someone who hangs a Barry Larkin ornament on my Christmas tree every year, but until he specifies the exact kind of change his words are just lip service to empathize with a beaten down fan base. ‘Change’ is so subjective, devoid of any real meaning until you detail a plan. I mean, if you truly love the franchise as much as you claim, you would speak truth to power and let the chips fall. It’s not like he’d get his number un-retired. And this isn’t to single him out, I appreciate the attempt.
The other side of this—why are we looking to an insider to diagnose what ails this franchise? If anything, one could argue his influence might possibly be part of the problem…..that his relationships might be clouding his judgement. Speculation, yes, but we probably all agree it’s time for fresh perspectives from outsiders who aren’t part of the insular culture that has rotted out a once proud franchise.
I still follow this site even though I checked out on the Reds years ago, and here is why.
Reds ownership doesn’t care if they win or lose. They care if they are making money, which they are. The level of excitement from last season after winning a tie break to sneak into the playoffs last year was exactly what needed to not happen. All that did was show to ownership that people enjoy it as long as you are at the table. Even though they had no real chance to win anything. This will continue to be the theme until the team sells. They are in it to make money as a business, not win. If they win and make money, great, but that’s secondary and if it happens it happens.
I’ve not watched a game in a few years, haven’t been to a game in longer, and that isn’t changing.
Lots of issues this year. None good.
1. They haven’t had a lot of luck with players stepping forward and becoming cornerstones. They needed one of McLain or Marte to take a big step forward. Or they needed Bleday to become that rare, cheap find that finally blossoms into a star.
2. The pitching could not have gone worse. Greene, Lodolo, and Abbott have had bouts of injury and/or performance declines that no one expected. The bullpen underperformed or had injuries or both (Ashcraft, Santillan, Pagan).
3. The FO made some poor acquisitions (Hayes, Lux), giving up Sirota (now top 20 overall prospect), a 37th overall draft pick, and Stafura. They’re now stuck with (still) $23M left on Hayes’ contract and they don’t have Sirota knocking on the door.
4. Instead of shopping for a new Camry, the FO once again doubled down on a slightly-less-used Mazda last offseason.
5. The farm is in shambles.
6. The FO resists taking the Brewers, Cards, and Rays approach of timely trades for quality assets which supply young, new quality assets. Instead, they hold on to Lodolo, Hunter, Abbott, Stephenson until their value decreases and they’ve lost their leverage.
Too many issues to fix and no way for a small market club to buy their way out of it. But, let’s reward the architects of the mess.
“1. They haven’t had a lot of luck with players stepping forward and becoming cornerstones. They needed one of McLain or Marte to take a big step forward. Or they needed Bleday to become that rare, cheap find that finally blossoms into a star.
Wait. Chase Burns and Sal Stewart haven’t stepped forward as future cornerstones to join ELDC? Seriously?
“2. The pitching could not have gone worse. Greene, Lodolo, and Abbott have had bouts of injury and/or performance declines that no one expected. The bullpen underperformed or had injuries or both (Ashcraft, Santillan, Pagan).
You can’t lose your #1 and #2 starters for long periods and your 7th, 8th and 9th inning guys due to injuries and expect anything else. Under performance was a small part of the problem and would have been more than mitigated had even half the pitching injuries not occurred.
“3. The FO made some poor acquisitions (Hayes, Lux), giving up Sirota (now top 20 overall prospect), a 37th overall draft pick, and Stafura. They’re now stuck with (still) $23M left on Hayes’ contract and they don’t have Sirota knocking on the door.”
It used to be the fan consensus that prospects are just that and should not be so valued by the Reds. Now, every prospect traded away is a future star, and evidence of bad FO decisions.
“4. Instead of shopping for a new Camry, the FO once again doubled down on a slightly-less-used Mazda last offseason.”
I have a red Mazda MX-5 Miata (my own personal REDZILLA) and highly take offense at this remark.
“5. The farm is in shambles.”
All farm systems take a major hit when talent is brought up over multiple years to fill roster voids. It wasn’t long ago the Padres had one of the best systems. They began this year dead last. Ownership has decided they will build strictly from within. Predictably, it’s drained the farm system.
“6. The FO resists taking the Brewers, Cards, and Rays approach of timely trades for quality assets which supply young, new quality assets. Instead, they hold on to Lodolo, Hunter, Abbott, Stephenson until their value decreases and they’ve lost their leverage.”
Sure. Give up on you’re three best starters and rebuild again. What’s that stupid phase everyone here is in love with? Wash Rinse Repeat???
The farm system isn’t in shambles because of their graduations of good players. It’s in shambles because almost every prospect that remains a prospect took a step backwards in 2026 with very few exceptions. Had they had a “normal” year where some guys stepped back, some guys stepped forward, some guys maintained – yes, they’d still have gone down in the rankings because of the graduations, but they’d be considered to have a much better and healthier farm than they do right now because that’s not what happened. Right now they don’t have a single starting pitching prospect worth thinking about reaching the big leagues and not being a swing-man type 5th starter for at least 3-4 years.
I, too, noted the aspersion cast at Mazdas. Mine is an elderly Mazda 2, bought from my daughter on the eve of her departing to climb in the Himalayas. It has no discernable suspension system, but always starts, goes, and gets me where I’m going. If the Reds were the same, we’d have few complaints.
We get it, you predicted 95 wins this year and couldn’t possibly be wrong. Id say your finger isn’t on the pulse of the Cincinnati Reds my friend. It wasn’t very hard for me to see this season was going to be a train wreck.
You are so incredibly smart. You’ve changed my opinion on everything. Really impressed,
Ha ha! He always presents his rebuttals with such elegance. How could anyone not be convinced he is always right?
I’m just so glad the Reds org is in such fine shape. I had no idea but I do now. Looking forward to next year.
Your rebuttals are truly convincing fellas. Preparation H might help.
I don’t know what Preparation H is. Is this something you use to keep yourself in a good mood???
Not familiar with Prep H? This might explain why you seem so butt-hurt over what I say. Maybe get some and apply to the affected area?
@Richard
#1 – I incorrectly made a general reference to “players stepping forward and becoming cornerstones”. My context was intended to be specifically related to Marte, McLain, and Bleday. And you could add Hinds to that, too. One of them needed to step up and be a potential 2.5 WAR yearly player. That was my point.
#2 – My comment on “pitching could not have gone worse” referenced both injuries AND performance. But you seem to attribute it only to injuries when you stated “Under performance was a small part of the problem”. However, that statement is simply not true. Consider that last year, the starting pitching group had 14.3 bWAR in 430 IP. This year they have 2.0 bWAR in 290 IP. Extrapolating last year’s bWAR to this year’s IP would yield 9.6 expected bWAR this year. This, compared to the actual 2.0 bWAR this year is clearly NOT “a small part of the problem”. A similar comparison could be made in the relievers.
For the “farm in shambles” reference Doug’s reply.
I could go through the other lines items one by one and offer similar rebuttals. But, I don’t feel like it.
Not everyone is 90 years old here and needs these types of meds like you. You should probably keep that to yourself and your physician. I don’t need to know what kind of issues causes your grumpy attitude here. I hope you heal soon!
Preparation-H is good for anyone’s re-butt-al.
Richard may be grumpy, but he’s a Reds’ fan, and grumpiness is appropriate.
@greenmtred, I agree about grumpy but there is no excuse for his know it all attitude and insults towards others who disagree with him. Absolutely no excuse for that kind of behavior.
#3 Stafura has already been traded by PIT to NYM and struggled in MiLB last year and this. Rogers was traded by PIT right away to Cubs and then signed as FA with MIN this year. He was Meh both years.
The Reds acquired LHP Burke for Lux. Burke has 178 ERA+ and Reds are 49-26 when he pitches.
HERE’S THE POINT YOU MISSED.
The Reds had THREE starters (Friedl, McLain, and Hayes) hit way below the back of their baseball cards this year. Each played good or great (McLain) defense anyway.
That is unusual to have three starters underperform in the same year. The 1971 Reds had that happen. 102-60 in 1970. 79-83 in 1971. Bench and Perez were below their 1970 number. Jim Merritt went from 20-12 in 1970 (OD starter) to 1-11 in 1971. Carbo and Concepcion were both worse than 1970. Wayne Simpson was another who underperformed in 1971.
I’m going to correct you again on Stafura, oldtimer. He did not struggle this year, overall. He started out slow early in the season, went on the injured list, and then came back and absolutely raked. The guy finished 2026 with an OPS over .900 in 81 games played where he hit 22 home runs.
I don’t follow it that closely. His EOY numbers were Meh.
If you don’t follow it closely then you should probably stop citing bad information on it. And a .900 OPS with 22 home runs in 81 games aren’t “meh”.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=stafur000sam it seems that he did very well until he was traded to NYM mid season then not so much after the trade.
He was merely “average” for three weeks after the trade. His overall numbers were very good and I’ve seen you say multiple times that he struggled this year. He didn’t. He hit very well.
You are overstating their defense.
McLain has +5 OAA and -4 DRS at his primary position 2B. Maybe slightly above average.
Friedl is slightly above average defensively THIS YEAR while begin slightly below in the past. So he’s average.
Hayes is having a down year defensively, considering his standard. His OAA decreased from +22 last year to just +4 this year.
None of these defensive contributions even come close to offsetting their inept offense. And this is demonstrated by each having a negative overall bWAR and fWAR (take your pick).
So no, I am not missing a point.
Simpson wrecked his shoulder 2/3 or so of the way thru 1970 due to overuse in his rookie year. We thought we had our “Bob Gibson” but he was never the same after the injury.
I don’t have access to all of the metrics.
SS hit .143 with 1 HR in 13 G of A ball.
He hit .301 with 19 HR in 47 G of High A ball.
Then he got traded from PIT to NYM. I have no other details of that trade.
After it, he hit .244 with 2 HR in 31 G of High A ball (in the same league).
He started slow, soared high, then dropped off.
You have access to all the metrics you need. He had 22 home runs and a .903 OPS in 81 games this season. That’s nothing shy of a very good season. That you continue to try and paint some other picture is absolutely incredible.
This is the apparent pride and illogical way of Oldtimer. I don’t expect him to come right out and admit he was wrong, because that is hard for most people to do…even though it is very freeing. But the guy can’t even slightly cede to an opposing opinion, no matter the facts presented.
Thank you for calling for some sort of accountability, Doug.
Oldtimer, why can’t you just admit that Stafura had a better season than you realized? It’s no big deal. You can still keep your opinion on the original issue.
You could be a very enjoyable commenter on here if you wouldn’t come across like such a stubborn know-it-all.
Dw- let me summarize Oldtimer for you.
Narcissists rarely admit they are wrong because doing so threatens their fragile ego and shatters their false image of perfection.
@ATH, I think this is a pretty good summation. A little surprised you drew so much heat. I would challenge those who nitpicked the details to state (restate) what you believe the underlying problem(s) is (are).
Are you REALLY surprised? 😀
Thank you.
I am most depressed about the state of the farm system, personally. The team’s preferred path to sustainability is to develop pitching from within to keep the MLB pitching depth full. But that model is sorely broken now, and it will likely be very evident starting next year and continuing forward. There’s just little way for the organization to attract or acquire the pitching talent it needs going forward. And I’m not sure how they fix that.
ATH, the absolute collapse of the pitching was eye popping. I have gone on repeatedly about the impact of losing five college arms from the 2023 and 24 drafts that were top ten picks to injury or ineffectiveness. I can’t say I know what the Reds were thinking but i know what I was — these college arms would anchor the 2025 and 26 High A, AA and possibly AAA rotations. Losing them meant others had to fill that space, and not all were well suited for that. Further, some of the young starters were pushed up to High A probably before ready. Losing those arms with few to no innings was not by any means the only reason for the collapse, but it had a big effect. It’s a pretty amazing.
@Dave
Yeah it’s not easily overcome. We don’t even have any possibilities of a post-1R Andrew Abbott (2nd, 2021) right now.
But the fact is, they’re pretty much entirely relying on the draft and international signees for pitching. It’s a failed strategy, because you’re eventually going to have this happen where you have a bad stretch and pitching becomes barren.
Contrast that to the Brewers top pitchers on pitching staff:
Misiorowski 6.1 WAR (2R, ’22 drafted in house)
Henderson 3.1 WAR (4R, ’21 drafted in house)
Patrick 2.1 WAR (4R, ’21 drafted by Ari, acquired)
DL Hall 1.8 WAR (1R, ’21 drafted by Orioles, acquired)
Megill 1.7 WAR (5R, ’15 drafted by SD, acquired for cash)
Gasser 1.1 WAR (2R, ’21 drafted by SD, acquired)
Drohan 0.4 WAR (5R, ’20 drafted by Boston, acquired)
Harrison 0.5 WAR (3R, ’20, drafted by SF, acquired)
2 picks in house (not first rounders). 6 acquired in trades with lots of control left.
Their model is similar to STL and TBR.
The Reds have 2 impact pitchers acquired in trades, Pagan and Burke. The Brewers have 6. Most were picked up cheaply. Some were returns in trades for significant near-expiring contract pieces.
This goes back to #6 on my list above which Richard took offense to and assumed trading good players is a rebuild.
But in my opinion the Reds’ model is broken. And we gave the “broken model” architects extensions to continue executing the broken model.
Correction: Pagan was FA.
To ATH above.
The point you missed was that at least three (and four if you consider Suarez) players had offensive years below the back of their baseball cards.
On defense, Friedl made 0 errors in CF (his natural position) in 2026.
McLain made 0 errors at 2B (his natural position) in 2026.
Hayes made 4 errors in 89 games at 3B (his natural position). He made 4 errors in 100 games at 3B with PIT in 2025. He remains #1 among active 3B and #2 all-time among 3B in career fielding %. Hayes made 2 of his 4 errors in one game (just off IL).
Their offense suffered greatly. Their defense did not.
Evaluating defense by error rate is like evaluating your car’s mechanical state by how many times the engine light comes on.
By any measure you choose (I don’t have all of them), the defense of Hayes, McLain, or Friedl did not suffer in 2026. Their offense did. So did Suarez.
I disagree. Hayes must perform at a Gold Glove level to warrant playing time. In 2026, he did not. His defense fell sharply, from brilliant (2025) to just above average, according to multiple Statcast metrics. However, even if his defense had been as good as last year, his bat negated his overall value. No matter how one wants to slice it, Hayes, Friedl, Marte, and McLain did not hit well enough to earn the playing time they received this year–having above average defense did not make up for their poor hitting. Yes, pitching was bad, too. Lots of problem areas to fix in this roster.
And none of that has anything to do with what I initially posted above so I’m not sure the relevance of what you are inferring.
Response to Oldtimer
Friedl’s range and arm, especially, have regressed considerably. There is a reason he became a defensive replacement in LF rather than CF or RF by the end of the season. His defense is weak, the opposite of strong.
Yep BK…no matter how you “slice it” especially Hayes. That trade will be remembered for many years in Reds country (not fondly). It will be a big part of the legacy of Nick Krall.
The only stat I found is Rtot (look it up on BR).
Hayes is 12. Friedl is 9. McLain is 5. Three highest Reds.
Friedl .991 career. And .995 in 2026.
Hayes .982 career (ranks 1st among active 3B and 2nd all-time among 3B). And .978 in 2026.
McLain .988 career. And .994 in 2026.
Any stat that suggests Friedl, MM, and KBH sit atop the leaderboard in anything other than 1) fielding and 2) awfulness should be dismantled.
@Oldtimer, here’s the link to Statcast’s Fielding Run Value:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/fielding-run-value?gameType=Regular&seasonStart=2026&seasonEnd=2026&type=fielder&position=0&minInnings=q&minResults=1
You’ll notice that Hayes is #76 on the list (the best of any Reds player), which is above average in the majors, but certainly not remarkable. There are 311 Major League players who played enough to qualify for this list. This is Statcast’s most comprehensive fielding statistic. McLain is #89, and Friedl is #102. All respectable numbers, but they are not outstanding across the league; they are solidly above average. I’m not sure what their career #s have to do with this season, except to provide an unnecessary distraction from a weak argument.
BK: in McLain’s case, his hitting was indeed poor, but every other aspect of his game–defense, base running, in-game intelligence–was excellent. The Reds certainly tried other options at 2nd base, and I think it’s likely that, had one of them hit well, he would have taken over as starter.
One of many things I don’t like about Baseball Reference is that you cannot copy the explanation of various analytic reference.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/2026.shtml
Scroll down to Fielding. Scroll over to Rtot. It offers an explanation that I cannot copy and paste.
In a few words, it appears to mean Total Defensive Runs Above Average.
@GMR, Fangraphs has McLain at +0.3 WAR; BR has him at -0.3 WAR. Respectfully, all of the fine things McLain brought to the game this year cumulatively were not enough to overcome his bat. Yes, he may have been the best option for the Reds at 2B, but he’s also part of why the Reds are in a bad spot heading into the offseason, which is the subject of the above article.
Here’s my bottom line: McLain lost his position on the 26-man roster. The Reds must find someone better. He should not start and must show tangible improvement to make the roster as a utility player in 2027. The same goes for Hayes, and has already happened for Friedl and Marte. That’s four starters entering 2026 who lost their starting roles and have something to prove even to make the team’s bench. The starting catcher is a free agent. That’s a lot of problems to solve for a team with a limited budget, and of course, there are holes on the pitching staff as well. The Reds are indeed at a low point when they should be peaking with elite players such as Greene, Burns, and EDLC.
@Oldtimer, I see the page you are talking about. Like many others, I’ve already acknowledged that Hayes, Friedl, and McLain are good defensively. BR has all three players with negative WAR values. Moreover, if you are only comparing them to the Reds roster, you’re missing how they stack up against the rest of the league (see the link I pasted above).
“Respectfully, all of the fine things McLain brought to the game this year cumulatively were not enough to overcome his bat.”
Sign Arraez and let McLain start in AAA to work his way back if possible.
@BK,
Re: “You’ll notice that Hayes is #76 on the list (the best of any Reds player), which is above average in the majors, but certainly not remarkable.”
I could be wrong, but isn’t FRV a counting stat?
If so Hayes has played about half the innings as most of the leaders on the list who have played full time. That would bump him up to within the top 30 in the game among all defensive players on a rate stat basis, and amongst the top 3B. There are others who would also raise their rankings as well due to playing time.
I’m also very curious about what a stabilizing sample size is for FRV. Is it like the other defensive stats that are incorporated in WAR that take 3 years of playing time data to stabilize?
@Tom, I do believe you’re correct. Here’s the definition:
“Fielding Run Value is Statcast’s metric for capturing a player’s measurable defensive performance by converting all of Statcast’s individual defensive metrics from different scales onto the same run-based scale, which can then be read as a player being worth X runs above or Y runs below average.”
So, yes, if he had played more theoretically he moves up the scale. Of note, if we double his innings, he’s still in the dark pink area (essentially the same standard deviation from the mean). If we do that, we must also extrapolate his other performance metrics which would put him at about -1.4 bWAR–that’s not good.
Take a look at K’BH’s fielding page on Statcast. His range and arm strength are on a downward trend. These indicators seem to support that his defense has slipped this year.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/ke-bryan-hayes-663647?stats=statcast-r-fielding-mlb#statcast-fielding-run-value
This argument kinda sounds like having your teenager come home after totaling the car while texting, trying to quell your anger by saying they made an “A” on a quiz. K’BH’s 2026 body of work has been bad. We’re reaching pretty hard to find rays of sunshine in the midst of his year. As I’ve stated before, the Reds need to have an honest conversation about him and McLain this offseason. I’m not a scout, but a lot of metrics appear to be heading in the wrong direction for both players.
@BK
Thanks for the reply and confirmation on the FRV being a counting stat.
I’m not trying to prop him as being an overall good player by any means and his defense is not as good as his last season, but just pointing out that he is still one of the top defensive 3B in the league on a rate basis despite that.
I do still believe he is the unluckiest MLB hitter this season as supported by his .162 BABIP (Next to last in MLB for hitters with 200+ PA and ~.120 below his established BABIP from the last two seasons) and further supported by his MLB leading -.096 difference between his wOBA .197 and xwOBA .293 for hitters with 150+ BIP.
That said, he’s probably still only about a .650 OPS guy given neutral luck this season which is still not good but much more palatable with his plus defense. (He put up a 4.5 WAR with a .659 OPS in 2022). He’s just become the most convenient scapegoat for fans to pile on in this disappointing Reds season.
I wouldn’t have dealt for him last season, but I can at least understand what they were hoping to accomplish with the trade which obviously hasn’t worked out. They took a shot at outside the box thinking and it was a swing and a miss.
I’d eat his contract, which isn’t much on a yearly basis, and move on with Stewart at 3B and find a decent bat for 1B similar to Nathaniel Lowe this season.
@Tom, I certainly don’t want to pile onto Hayes. I suppose many do because they didn’t like the trade in the first place, and everything negative is just validation of the presupposition. It may also be from the repetitive posting of the team’s record on days he played.
As for his “luck,” I admit I’m baffled. There’s a lot of data to support the “bad luck hypothesis,” but his 2026 body of work is a reasonably large sample size, which argues against luck being a factor. Perhaps there’s something unique about his hitting that’s not caught by the models. I really don’t know. But statistically, “bad luck” and a sample size of 235 plate appearances are usually a contradiction in terms, especially for a hitter who’s had an OPS+ below 600 for three straight seasons. I don’t like to be negative, but realistically, how do the Reds justify using him as anything but a defensive replacement at this point? Three years, 1000+ PA … maybe he’s just a really bad hitter and his one elite skill hasn’t been elite this year.
So so many issues. Not going to be fixed anytime soon. A fellow fan has started to document on FACEBOOK all of the trades that Krall has made since around 2000. Not good. Some of the RP’s had really good years and were not renewed. I think there is a feeling that the bullpen can be rebuilt every year. I will be curious who the Reds will retain out of the current pen.
But minor league development/scouting has to improve. And I know everyone thinks that a SS can be moved anywhere in the outfield. But you need to learn that position. The Reds tried it with Nick Senzel – didn’t work. Marte while having some good speels in the outfield is not an outfielder.
The next big issue is hitting. The Reds think that they can “fix” and hitter. That has proven not to be true. The Reds need to understand that a hitter with an extremely high chase rate may not get any better.
I will give the Reds credit for some of the draft choices that have been made the last couple of years. Seem to have some good young talent coming up through the system, but most are 2-3 years away.
Nick Krall didn’t even join the Reds until multiple years after 2000. He probably had zero input at all on any trades until like 2015/2016. But since it’s FACEBOOK, it definitely tracks that someone would write about that.
That was a typo on my part. Meant to say since 2020.
Larkin is THE reason I’m a Reds fan. He is a class act on and off the field. A Roberto Clemente award winner, HOFer, MVP, multiple Gold Glover, multiple Silver Slugger, the captain, and a World Series champ. When he speaks, people should pay attention. I’ve met him a few times and he is an even better individual in person. This is America – so you don’t have to agree with everything he says or does. But he has earned the attention of Reds fans.
He said exactly what I’ve said for the last several months – something needs a change. That does not make either one of us geniuses. It’s obvious. He did not come out and say this, but the other day, when we played baseball the right way against Clay Holmes, you could hear it in his voice. Putting the ball in play and being aggressive on the basepaths is infectious. It’s exciting. I’m paraphrasing here.
We need to emulate MIL and TB. We’re not going to limit Elly’s K% anytime soon, but the rest of team needs to take a new approach. Swinging for the fences needs to disappear. We’ll still get our HR’s in GABP, but the approach is what needs to change.
The 1972 Reds were 2nd in SB% and 1st in XBT%. The 1973 Reds were 1st in SB%. The 1975 Reds were 1st in SB% and XBT%. The 1976 Reds were 1st in SB% and XBT%. We have to get back to that. Elly already fits this area to a tee and when you take on the identity of your star, you excel as a team. By the way, Elly has a low launch angle (hint: he doesn’t need it).
On the pitching side, the 1995 Reds had the 3rd lowest BB% in the NL. The 1975 team had the 2nd lowest BB%. The 1972 team had the 2nd lowest BB%. Pretty simple. Don’t walk people and especially don’t walk people trying to generate K’s (aka – quit nibbling).
It goes with out saying that all of the championship caliber Reds teams had great defenses. That needs addressed too. We are better than we were last year.
How do we stack up today? The worst K% in the league. 11th in the NL in SB%. 4th worst in the NL in XBT%.
Time for change.
Michael B. Green: Your first two paragraphs express my feelings exactly. I have never been prouder to be a Red’s fan than when Barry Larkin was playing. Change is needed.
“He’s one of the voices that the fans of the team hear for half of the season and probably put a lot of faith in to know what he’s talking about.”
This is what is wrong with Cincinnati baseball. Whether the name is Brantley, Morgan or Larkin, these are the sad vox populi fans have bought into. New, progressive ideas are anathema to these people. Listening to them or putting them in charge is disaster for this organization going forward.
I saw Dick Williams at the Bengals game last week. He seemed pretty content cheering on the Bengals in his Skyline/Bengals shirt as the current Chairman of the Board for Skyline. He chose to leave POBO of the Reds for some reason. Perhaps the insular nature of the organization or perhaps the seeing teardown and lean budgets coming post Covid with the direction of the organization or both.
I’ve wondered this exact same thing myself. Alas, Williams has never really talked about it to my knowledge. Nor would I ever expect him to.
Dick Williams’ dad and an uncle were listed as “principal owners” of the Reds, along with (Bob) Castellini, in a filing of the LLC that owns 100% of the actual Reds franchise.
Supposedly the Castellini stake in the LLC was ~12-15%, and the combined Williams stake was in the 20-25% range. Castellini was more equal because he holds the managing partner supershare.
The combined principal owners’ holding is/ was believed to be enough to block a supermajority that could dissolve the managing partner agreement.
What I have wondered is whether the Williams family cashed out around the time Dick Williams left the Reds. And if so, if that could have been because the Williams family thought Dick, and not Phil Castellini, was the heir apparent CEO, but that wasn’t going to happen.
For more context, Dick Williams’ grandfather and a grand/ great uncle held the Red managing partner authority for around five years in the late 1970’s and early 1980s. They sold the managing partner share to Marge Schott (1984) due to the failing health of one of the Williams brothers.
I would expect Dick Williams to talk about why he left the position of POBO because I thought he had the Reds going in the right direction. And, the Williams family have been involved in Red’s ownership for a very long time.
Thanks for the explanation, Jim. Interesting hypothesis.
Presuming people in the broadcast booth are “in charge” of anything, most of them are just shilling for their sponsors now. I don’t know what Brantley earns to spew Coca Cola lines every 4 innings, and Larkin evidently doesn’t see a need to comment on any product. Barry is dull, but that’s because he has no real journalism training. Joe Morgan is currently dead.
If these people are the reason the Reds are going to lose 90 games, good grief … you are doing a lot of faith healing.
Barry Larkin is actually in the Reds front office, though. He plays a role in player development in the minor leagues. He, unlike the others, does indeed have an actual impact on things the team does that can lead to failures and successes.
well said allthehype!
As Mr. Rickey said “It’s better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late.”
Krall seems to be trade risk averse with the thought of trading the team’s larger star players who could bring a nice return of players to restock the system.
I wonder why that is? Is he concerned about negative fan reaction to the trade involving a larger star player? Or he doesn’t trust his own or his staff’s abilities to evaluate talent? Perhaps he feels he has been fleeced in past trades, I dunno…could be any of a number of myriad of reasons.
But, man, you have to be impressed with the Brewers and Rays especially. They make smart trades and player decisions that keep their organizations vibrant and competitive.
I would think the fans of their teams have some confidence built up in believing that the FO knows what they are doing when making such decisions. I have zero confidence in Krall and company to be so astute.
I think you can add TJ Antone as one of the positives. He’s been outstanding and like Garcia it was unexpected.
Brewers and Rays are the cream of the crop for small market teams and building their franchises the right way. The Reds, the opposite is true. Ineptitude from top down minus a few very talented players who I would argue have that internal drive which would make them successful no matter where they play. Sad times in Cincy for baseball fans.
I spent a little time the other day looking at possible free agents this offseason. I saw no one who could possibly be of any help. Either average players or aging middle of the road types.
Can you imagine how much better the Reds would be if they had merely average players at four positions on the field and one in the rotation that were absolutely terrible in 2026?
Even four average players would go along way in helping our core of EDLC, Stewart, and Burns win more games.
I did too Gus and I came to same conclusion on offensive players. Perhaps Happ but he has some warts.
I,m more encouraged by the pitching that is available but Reds will always struggle to bring in starting pitching due to great American small park. But the fastest way back to contention is probably to overpay for 2 mlb average starters and “trust” that the current 40 man roster will be somewhat better offensively next year.
Plus maybe 1 more bullpen arm if budget allows.
Please not Happ!
While he tends to kill the Reds, he is another strikeout machine
The Reds have enough of that. Please get some players who can put the
bat on the ball.
I think the worst part is having that hopeless feeling about next season: there’s nobody in the upper minors you can feasible expect will take the next step, no big time free agency signings and with this front office cannot be expected they’ll do well even if having the money.
The Yankees just closed a deal to bring in new capital. If the Steinbrenner family can sell off a small slice of their share of the Yankees to open access to a new large capital source, what’s the Castellini/ Williams excuse?
Various sources put the current value of the Reds franchise at just north of $1.5B, yes, with a “B,” as Carl Sagan liked to say. 😉 Castellini’s group is said to have paid $270M for the team in 2006.
They then recouped all or a large portion of that by selling off most of their Reds holdings but maintaining control via a managing partner agreement and continuing to hold a large enough stake to block the supermajority needed to countermand or dissolve the managing partner authority (the combined Castellini/ Williams stake is believed to be in the 35% range).
Wouldn’t it be simpler to take on some outside capital than run the team like an old-time family corner grocery? Or better yet, just sell it all and enjoy life.
Here is the link to Forbes March 2026 evaluation of the Reds franchise:
https://www.forbes.com/teams/cincinnati-reds/
Thanks for the link Jim.
It is enlightening in that it disproves the theory that the Reds ~19 members of the Reds ownership group are not raking in profits hand over fist every year for the last 10 years:
Reds Operating Income
Year Op. Inc. Plyr. Ex.
2017 16M 120M
2018 14M 118M
2019 37M 119M
2020 23M 148M
2021 -47M 70M
2022 .4M 153M
2023 -9.6M 138M
2024 53M 130M
2025 29M 161M
2026 26M 144M
10 Yr AVG 14.2M 130.1M
I’ll let everyone that hasn’t yet realized that they are rooting for a small market in a very uneven playing field get back to their end of the year Wah Wahs.
Carry on and keep the Kleenex handy.
The Yankees sold off a share that included their related media holdings; it wasn’t just the Yankees. You’re making an assumption that the capital infusion is going to payroll. I’m not sure that’s true.
The notion that the Cincinnati market can support greatly increased payroll under MLB’s current economic structure is a pipedream. The Castellinis have done a poor job stewarding the Reds, but this franchise will remain at a structural disadvantage until MLB and the MLBPA agree to a CBA that levels the playing field for acquiring talent. There are no quick fixes or easy buttons.
The quickest fix is for the current Reds owners to figure out they are over their heads in the deep end and sell out.
But that’s not a quick fix. The Reds have some special talent on the roster, but lack the supporting pieces for those players to be successful. It would be nice if they could attack the free agent market and address their needs, but they lack the resources to do so, and the market is structured to require them to overpay for top talent.
New owners might bring a better strategy and better processes. From what I’ve read, the Brewers, Guardians, and Rays’ secret sauce is underpinned by long-term investments in analytics-supported scouting and player development. They are better at evaluating their own players, identifying players in the draft and trades, and developing players. Those kinds of process changes take time to bear fruit. I really thought the Reds had moved in that direction, but Rays and Guardians investments have led them to consistently have low payrolls. The Brewers have done a better job of using their success to draw more fans and have been able to add to their payroll as a result. Keep in mind, I’m talking in terms of the Reds, Guardians, Brewers, and Rays all living in the same economic strata in MLB. Even those I’ve identified as successful struggle to supplant the largest market teams in the playoffs.
One last point: have you considered that the current Reds ownership structure did exactly what you are suggesting when they bought the team? The Castellini and Williams families retained just enough equity to control the team, but brought in multiple other investors right from the start.
@Jim, Obtaining capital is easy for the Reds franchise, like most other successful businesses. They could get a loan from hundreds of different sources.
Making a profit after liabilities increase is the hard part.
A billion ain’t what it used to be, Jim.
One of your best posts of the year, Doug. Thanks!
I agree. Unfortunately, Larkin is right; the organization is a mess.
Barry Larkin: “But something has to give. We have to get better because we are so, so far behind.”
I wonder what Barry would suggest? He never fails to complement and talk-up ALL the Reds players (even Friedl this year). So I guess he is more than OK with the current roster. So that means he is calling for a change in front office/management? Well, it’s too late for that now, as Barry surely knows. New ownership?
Barry’s words ring hollow to me. My suggestion? Start with replacing the broadcast team (Barry contributes absolutely nothing of consequence and Sadak is unbearable).
Who seriously cares about who the announcers are when it comes to building a better system and roster?
I don’t care if Wolfman Jack or Kent Brockman were the announcers. It makes little to no difference who’s announcing the games.
Agreed Lark does nothing for me on the broadcast and Sadak makes my skin crawl.
“Sadak is unbearable” you’ve got that right!
Reading the comments. It never fails Richard comes here and post his nonsense and tells us how wrong we are.
Curious what position in major league baseball did you play Richard. Since you know more than Larkin, Brantley etc etc. Clown show troll
Thank you, Kevin. I’m glad that I’m not the only one tired of his internet bully routine. It is beyond crazy at this point. It is always someone else who is the issue according to him.
@kevin, Yep he knows all. That’s why I quit responding to him, it is pointless. He has all the answers.
Bingo. Its Exhausting.
I agree with Mr. Gray. If the Reds can get four more average positional players and one more average rotation pitcher, they would be much improved. Hope someone in the Reds leadership is listening, but I doubt it.
True, until those newly acquired players underperform or get hurt, and then we’re right back in the all-too-familiar division cellar. They’ve gotta find a way to get more of their trade and free-agent acquisitions “right.” They’ve also gotta do better at predicting decline of their own players. Over the last few years, they’ve whiffed too many times, and they haven’t been able to add sufficient talent to their core to compete with the best teams in the league.
Yeah. Their “evaluator” is broken. New blood/people are very much needed. The Brews, Guards, and Rays are prime examples as you stated earlier.
The success of the Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays is built on years of work. To emulate that, the Reds have to start with the draft, and free agent signings in the countries outside of the US.
Overall, the Reds scouting seems to be poor, or at best lackluster. It’s easy to generate a report that “Justin Lebron is a five tool player!”, but what is his actual upside as a major league hitter? He is doing ok at High A this year, ended up with a .292 average, and a .940 OPS. I imagine next year he will move on the AA Chattanooga. But how are they rating his “chase rate” and how does he look against top level High A pitchers? I mean, I don’t know, but somebody must.
The Reds must scout and draft better. Most drafted players do not make it to the majors, but one more each year (draft) besides the #1 (how is Austin Hendricks working out? And Cam Collier?), means a tremendous amount to the organization.
I think the Reds have a problem with their overall pitching philosophy. And that goes straight to Derek Johnson. I am not sure what happened to him this season (illness?), but the Reds need a different approach.
Thinking WAY outside the box….why not make Tejay Antone a player coach? He is a very smart and articulate guy, and seems to have a very good grasp of what he is doing, getting the most out of his thrice-repaired elbow.
So drafting is step one to emulate the Brewers and Rays. Step two is to have a much better way to evaluate their own players, and those that they wish to acquire.
Jeimer Candalario and Ke’Bryan Hayes. Who was responsible for these guys being acquired?
And trading players when their cost of hiring them exceeds their value to the team, or means allocating resources to one player that does not add significant WAR. Why did the Reds not trade Tyler Stephenson before the deadline? Now he will walk and the Reds get nothing. Oh, they didn’t get what he was “worth”. The offers were poor. There was still a chance to be in the race for a WC spot. And now they will get bupkus. Or will the Reds sign a 30 year old catcher with a lifetime 10.5 WAR spread over 5 full seasons and part of a 6th to a $30 million dollar, 3 year contract….or more?
Where the other franchises seem to excel is in evaluating players who are not the big-name prospects. I think just about anyone can see that Chase Burns is a good pitcher and that LeBron had at least four outstanding tools. Some teams seem to outperform the averages in trades, drafting, and signing. The Reds seem to draft well, but I’m not sure their other areas of scouting are on par with the rest of the league (i.e., scouting other teams’ systems, international scouting, internal scouting, major league scouting). Player development appears to lack as well–I’ve been shocked to see so many of our prospects flame out in the majors.
@BK
Exactly right on player evaluation. That is the differentiator. In the Brewers case, the identify those players in other organizations and acquire them. See my reply above to Dave on that.
Hiring the right people (talent evaluators) is job #1.
“ Nick Krall expects himself, as well as the rest of the front office and Terry Francona to return for 2027. ”
To be fair, would Phil Castellini or any employer for that matter tell someone they are likely to be fired? No. They’d keep it under wraps until they are ready to do it. So is this necessarily any different? I fully expect Francona to return for one more season, but I still hold hope that this disastrous September results in Phil kicking Nick and Brad out of Cincinnati…Giving Nick a 7th chance makes zero sense whatsoever.
I’ll try to add some positive thoughts in here eventually, but I think it may be hard for the greatest front office in the history of baseball to turn the 2027 Reds into a playoff team. Even with a lot of resources, money, you saw with the Mets this past few seasons, still it’s not easy as a GM, especially with so many negatives the Reds have going into this offseason to be competitive
As of now, I think the Colorado Rockies are the only team I feel like the Reds will definitely have a better record than in 2027. And the Rockies seem like they’re on the rise a bit, at least seem to have a plan.
The San Francisco Giants I think are in a really bad spot. But maybe Wily Adames, Matt Chapman, turn it around a bit, and they can spend heavily, so they could potentially buy some of there way back into contention.
A few positives…the Reds should get 2 top 35 draft picks in 2027 I believe with Sal Stewart most likely winning the rookie of the year. Maybe the Reds are blessed in the draft lottery and get a #1-2 pick. That’d help rebuild the farm system quicker.
If they want to try and contend and not rebuild…why not consider trading Duno as the lead player in a package for a really good every day Outfielder/Infielder, or really good Starting Pitcher? I don’t know who that’d be, but as promising as Duno is, he’s still a prospect.
The Reds almost need to think the opposite of how they’ve been thinking, and do the opposite thing.
In one bold way, that’d be consider trading De La Cruz and rebuilding. Or in another bold way, it’d be trading Duno and try to win right now and hoping you have 2-3 really good free agent signings. Abbott would have been a good trade candidate if he had a good year, but not currently as his value is down.
Harkening back a little…Reds missed an opportunity trading Stephenson, Singer, Burke, maybe a few others. May not have brought back great talent, but would have given more respect to the farm system, and more prospects to potentially trade in the future.
I would not trade Duno at this time, but all your other points are salient.
The Reds’ management this year decided to hang on to the bitter end, and not make trades of players they will lose to free agency, thus getting nothing.
But I think that making a lot of trades in the offseason, especially using a few of the actually good prospects the Reds have, to be able to “compete” next year might be a little reckless. They have pitchers that could have a bounce back year in 2027, if there is a 2027 season. Or not. But the Reds need too many player and pitchers to fix this team and compete in one season, unless they make some big free-agent signings (doubtful).
Your logic on the deficit is right on imo. It is huge. But not trading 2028-2029 prospects like Duno aint going to right the ship. Elly is too good, too valuable to move the championship target year any further out then 2028. You lose Elly after 2028 and you are also staring at 2029-2030 being bleak. Now if we sign Elly through 2032, then maybe you have something in 2029 and hold onto a few 2029 prospects. (But then why in the heck didn’t you trade your expiring contracts at the deadline? Not you, just me ranting at the organizational fog.)
The first step in this mess has to be resigning Elly for x years. Then your target year can be flexed out to 2029. Absent that, you have to swallow the deficit and trade the farm and make a run in 2027. 2025-2026 should have been the start of our run but no we didn’t add the necessary offensive pieces, nor trade any of our high value prospects. Now the hole is a little deeper as you note because the high majority prospects – Lowder, Petty, Marte, Arroyo, CES, Hinds, McLain, etc. – have all underachieved. Or maybe never had it. Trade value instead of being high is much lower. Exact opposite of the Tampa Bay model of trading when high. Pile on top of that a couple of bad trades and we are where we are. 25 games behind the Brewers and Elly’s reign down to 2 more years. It is awful. It can be addressed with big spending but I don’t believe it can be addressed if you are going to be selective in who you trade. It is a big hole and a potentially decade long hole…..because the problem is the youth that we counted on. You absolutely can not run it back again without resigning Elly first.
First, Doug, since we’re almost at the end … here’s +4,356,298 from me to you. You’ve kept all of us in check and provided somewhere to both cheer and vent. I’m tentative on the 2027 season, but I certainly don’t want to see it zap a large portion of your income.
Second, I find “Broadcast Larkin” hard to listen to for a wide variety of reasons. IMO, Sadak just overwhelms him at times and he pulls back farther. Brantley is a better booth partner even though some (or many) find his mindset far too “old school” (there are definitely times I agree).
Third, Larkin spoke plainly and laid the primary “blame” at the feet of the organization itself. Yes there were unexpected injuries and under performing … but that stuff happens. I remain firmly in the camp that says we need a leadership change at the very top if we are every to see any substantive change at all (as opposed to the regular litany of excuses for being “small market”). It seems to me they aren’t “baseball people” and, frankly, I don’t know what kind of overall business people they are. Krall gets a lot of heat, but he’s handcuffed by the guys who sign the contracts and checks regardless of his title.
By this time next week, 2026 baseball will be over for me. I may be a casual fan for some post-season games, but no more than that. It’s been a very long season. Frankly, I’m tired of baseball.
Well said Mark. I’ll second pretty much all of that.
Agree Mark
Me too.
Where it doesn’t hold together Mark is money spent. We have historically spent more than 6-10 teams. I think this year we are like 20th out of 30. We are not in the big spender category and never will be. But we have our peers. Tampa and the Brewers are there with us. So is KC, Minn., St.Louis, and probably Cleveland and Seattle. Speaking for myself, no one expects expects you to compete for for the World Series every other year. But I would think you could scare 87- 90 wins every third or fourth year. We have not done that in forever and we are into our 4th or 5th year with Elly. We didn’t do it much in Joey’s time either. If that frequency is a reasonable expectation, then that is not a budget problem, that is a GM talent evaluation issue. We should have a better GM by now. He is the architect of the 2022-2023 rebuild and the one who traded away younger starting pitching studs for his choice of prospects in Arroyo, Marte, Williamson, Steer, CES, Petty, Phillips, etc. Emphasis on choices. It was reported that there was a multi team bidding war for Castillo and possibly others. And there were the bigger dollar trades. Candy, Moose, Nick, Hayes, Singer, and Geno. The top draft picks have not been wonderful either. McLain, Lodolo, Lowder, Greene, Stephenson, etc. Burns certainly was wonderful. If any or many of these guys are on our 2027 roster, I can not see us scaring the Brewers or Cubs. We need big changes. Not 1-2 guys and not guys named Brito, Arroyo, Banfield, Cabrera, Dunn, McLain, etc. Give them a chance? What in the heck have you been doing in 2025-2026? Squandering the remaking Elly years as you are making it awafully difficult on him to believe that you will have a Brewers competitive team in here anytime soon.
There is only 1 way out of this mess. Dump the “no trade of prospects” principle. Anything other than a 2027 contributor is available. Increase the budget by 50% to acquire B+ free agents. The other way is the do very little and get slaughtered by the Brewers and Cubs again. You created this mess. It is embarassing. Man up and get some talent in here and bring the winning excitement back to the city. If you do the job well you will increase attendance by 20% and be a hero like Mikey.
Me too, on the tired. That’s what this Reds organization has done to many of us. Then, for the architect of it all, Nick Krall, to declare on his own (or on his boss’s orders) that everybody of significance on the management chain was coming back was the killer.
Either way, Larkin’s parting shot for 2026 can’t make them happy.
For those of you who do not follow goings-on of “social media,” Joey Votto is using his X account to chip in. While Larkin’s shot was head-on, JV is taking more of a grassroots guerrilla warfare approach. He is engaging in baseball dialog with we commoners to indirectly sell his views of how baseball should be played and what an organization should look like and function. However, he broke cover Monday to make it clear he agrees 100% with what Larkin said.
My main difference with the comments and aftermath of Larkin and others is timing. We seem to act like that the needed roster improvements to compete with the Brewers and Cubs is too much for the next 6 months. Maybe. But it should have started 9-10 months ago. The organization knew that offense was an issue in 2025 and needed significant improvement. A big bat OF was on everybody’s list. Suarez wasn’t enough and plays the wrong position. And yet in 2026, we rolled out McLain, Benson, Hinds, and Hayes. (I am not counting Friedl and Marte.) Everyone of these dudes was a known weak hitter and somebody decided that poor hitting wasn’t going to continue in 2026. Not me. Total waste of 9 months of building this juggernaut around Elly. Don’t tell me that we couldnt have done better. Oh yeah we could have. Pretty hefty trade pieces like Arroyo, Duno, Lodolo, Lowder, Marte, etc. are still here. Wasn’t Arroyo our top prospect? And we all know about the Buxton for Greene rumors when Krall has to make the statement “that isn’t a done deal.” Or something along those lines. The adds of Myers and Lowe were pluses but they were trivial in the grand scheme.
Fast forward to the August trade deadline. Again no improvements. 4 games behind in the wildcard and guys like Arreaz and Garcia (and others) are going to other teams for mid level prospects. I wanted us to acquire 2027- 2028 bats. I was even OK with giving up on 2026 and acquiring prospects that could be tradable over the winter. No, we hold onto Singer, Tyler, and Burke and get zero in return thinking we are going to pick up 4 games with no adds and Lowe leaving. So Toglia and Johnson come up and hit zilch. This is us in a wildcard chase.
Now it is late September and Larkin sees us getting beat to a pulp by the Brewers and Dodgers. A 3-10 record. Falling to 11 games under 500 and 25 games behind the Brewers. Are you kidding me! But we are getting to see the next batch of young guys. But again the results are not pretty. I am pretty sure Krall was hoping Jorge, HRod, Banfield, and Co. would hit 300 so he could pencil them in for 2027. Just the opposite. On the same level as Hinds, CES, Benson, McLain, Marte,etc. Yeah Barry, big changes are needed and in short order or our elite player will be gone. 25 games behind!! And possibly not a single graduate from the 2025-2026 class at Louisville. What a mess.
Actually, the need for a big bat go back to the 2023 offseason. The Reds haven’t had a consistent power threat in the OF since … who? Castellanos?
One or two years, yes. But multi-year (five or more), I’d go all the way back to Eric Davis (1980s) or George Foster (1970s). Frank Robinson is Reds all-time GOAT as HR hitting OF.
Give Barry Larkin control for 3 years, then let’s assess his opinion. Otherwise he is still covered by ‘those who can, do, and those who can’t, teach’, or ‘talk’. Barry Larkin has done nothing to show he has any aptitude for front office success and I believe the list of successful players who went on to become successful GMs is very short.
The guy states facts, which should be refreshing since he’s an organization guy. I’d much rather hear honesty than more PR drool.
Barry Larry wanted the Reds to sign Kyle Farmer to a long term deal. No Thanks
I’m not sure what he “blabbers” in the booth sometimes when he does talk is what he actually believes when he thinks it through. Just talking to be talking because that’s his job maybe? He’s a lot smarter when he gets fired up. lol
I missed that so I had to look up what Barry said (in July 2022):
“You know, (BSO play-by-play announcer) John (Sadak), we were talking about moves that you and I would make? And I mentioned to you that I would sign this kid right here, Kyle Farmer, to a long-term deal and slap a ‘C’ on his chest. I love everything about Kyle Farmer.”
That didn’t age well.
“That didn’t age well.”
I bet he wishes he had that one back. lol
Doc: Is there any guarantee that anyone, whether a successful player or not, will go on to be a successful GM? I doubt it. And how many GM’s have been known as good broadcasters?
The Reds are something like second in HR. The big bat mantra just doesn’t line up with facts. They had plenty of HR. They needed a whole bunch of little bats to be on base for when all those HRs were being hit. Also, note where the Brewers are in the HR rankings; somewhere near the bottom but their win total in somewhere near the top. Find a new theory with some data to back it up.
Yeah well whether we like it or not or even want to admit it batting average still matters. The Rays, Dodgers, and Brewers lead the league in BA and all three in first place.
+50,000
Look at Milwaukee’s run differential. . .tops in MLB. . .BY FAR!
Some ugly numbers as the Reds tumble down the stretch. 3-10 won lost (.231 winning percentage). Outscored 95 (7.3 rpg) to 37 (2.8 rpg). During that span, the club is 13/72 w/ RISP, a .181 success rate. They have averaged 1 hit w/RISP per game.
It’s just amazing to me that people who can type words think they know more about the highest levels of baseball than Barry Larkin. Be glad that a guy from the inside is willing to be honest about the state of the Reds, which is really no revelation. Or … continue to buy and sell the excuses … and type ridiculous words about MM and KBH being bright spots.
No one said ANYTHING like that. Hayes, McLean, Friedl, and Suarez (plus various pitchers) have not been good this season.
Who is McLean? There is no McLean on the roster.
My advice to some of you is stop looking for stats to back up your argument and watch the games. You will see just how bad the team has played this year. Not all stats are the same and some of you just spit this stuff out like it’s gospel. Krall has done a remarkably bad job and thats by any metric, stat, or evaluation tool. The franchise is a mess. They do nothing right at the moment. They ran Burns out to start games and pitch 3 innings for what? To balloon his ERA and now he is hurt w a groin pull. It didn’t do any good at all and that is a recurring theme around here.
The Reds rank last in MLB in batting AVG and OBP. The Reds fans deserve better.
They rank better in batting AVG against and OBP against.
Seems as if Barry Larkin is committed to bring either an expansion or existing franchise to Orlando. Doesn’t mean his assessment of the Reds is right, but it is interesting. https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterchawaga/2025/11/06/reds-hall-of-fame-legend-touts-100-million-advantage-for-orlando-mlb-expansion/
I admittedly didn’t read the article. But Tampa can’t support a franchise now, and a team in Orlando would draw from nearby Tampa’s already small fan support base.
It’s a non-starter for MLB unless the Tampa team moves to Orlando, and I’m pretty sure the city of Tampa just recently voted to build a stadium.
Was basically thinking the same thing.
Yep.
Yes, but the old Tampa stadium was out in the middle of nowhere.
The new stadium location will boost attendance big time.
Raleigh would get it before Orlando … and that’s most DEFINITELY NOT happening. Looking more like Nashville and Salt Lake City.
More likely, Charlotte before Raleigh.
Re: all the injuries. Reds players get injured every year and the organization’s excuse is “bad luck.” Every. SIngle. Year. It’s tiring, and it’s a little more than bad luck.
HG and Lodolo have significant injury history and yet they have been counted on to be mainstays of the rotation even though they have rarely shown durability. Lowder and McLain haven’t recovered from injuries that occurred before this season, and KBH always has back issues.
Injuries aside, Krall, and to a lesser extent Tito, have preached winning with pitching, speed and defense.
This year nearly all of the pitching stunk, aside from Elly there was no speed, and the elite defense of KBH and McLain was offset by their atrocious offensive numbers.
The current organizational philosophy is: RIDICULOUS. And yet they will call this season an outlier due to bad luck and likely run it back
Winning occurs with good players(ones who can hit and pitch effectively) staying healthy playing fundamental baseball. There are 5-6 such players on the roster. Not nearly enough.
Injuries to top 2 pitchers (going into the season), not able to develop McLain and Marte on offense and Mey, Phillips, and Ashcraft on relief pitching side are the top 3 reasons.
But things are not as dired as they look. A few things go our way next year, just like last year and we will be in pennant race this time next year.
Oh my lord Nick Krall is here with us. Make it stop.
If we can read constant bellyaching, then we can read when somebody isn’t bellyaching.
Sell the team. Then sign Skubal.
Why would Skubal want to sign as FA with Reds?
Sounds like you want a Salary cap where all teams have a legitimate shot at top free agents!
You think a salary cap will fix the Reds? Elly, Sal, and Chase Burns made less than 3 million total. The Reds spent $128 on their roster payroll this year. No salary cap fixes the Nick Krall problem.
“The Reds spent $128 on their roster payroll this year. No salary cap fixes the Nick Krall problem.”
Actually $133 M and those three make less than $3 M so you are correct. Where’s the other $130 M? It’s not keeping us out of last place that’s for sure.
Excellent piece Doug.
While I appreciate what Barry Larkin said and I appreciate your comments
the money line of the article is “The NFL is king and has been America’s most popular sport for nearly 50 years now”. This is the conversation that needs to be had .
First I would say it has been more like 35 years.
I feel baseball ruled in the 1970s. You had so many good teams from all over the country. The Reds, The A’S, The Orioles, the Pirates, the Mets, then Yankees, the Dodgers, even the Royals had really good teams. NBA AND NFL were a distant 2nd and third. Also you could drive around any neighborhood in Cincinnati, (inner city or suburb) and kids were outside playing baseball.
In the 1980s I feel the NBA AND MLB were neck and neck. You had the Magic Johnson/ Larry Bird rivalry and in baseball you had some amazing dramatic word series in 1985, 1986,1988. I felt the NFL was pretty weak in the 1980s with multiple “super bores”. the only good super bowls of the decade involved the Bengals.
the 1990s were owned by the NBA with Michael Jordan And Charles Barkley. Baseball was still popular but really took a hit with the strike and steroid scandal back to back. those kids that were playing baseball in the 1970s were playing basketball in the 1990s. T hen Jordan retires and baseball is marred in its steroid scandal and the nfl takes over in the late 1990s and it has not really looked back.
now days drive around any town in the country any time of the year, kids are playing football. The baseball fields are all overgrown with weeds.
I just think the reds decline mirrors the decline of baseball in this country. Somebody mentioned that the Brewers, Guardians, rays used AI generated programs to to draft and trade players. CM’ON!!! should it be that hard? Did the bengals use AI TO DRAFT Burrow and Chase? No. the talent is obvious. It SHOULD BE THAT WAY WITH BASEBALL AS WELL.
I think baseball can be on top again but it has to start with the youth. I really think the pitching needs to be reeled in at the youth level. Maybe hitting off a tee until high school. Make the game fun and exciting. promote athleticism not pitch recognition. 10 year old kids arent going home crying because they went 0-4 with 4 strikeouts on 75 mile per hour sliders. then slowly add live pitching in high school. Baseball needs to be in a position where guys like Jamar Chase and Joe Burrow are playing baseball and the Matt McClain’s and KBH’S of the world are doctors and lawyers and used car salesmen.
Electronics is the name of the game today. Not too many young people are outside to play any sports.
Soccer is ever more popular among young kids today.
Baseball is arguably done (or at least paused) as the #1 sport in the USA. It was in the 1950s and 1960s when I grew up.
Matt McLain and KBH had bad offensive years, but are capable baseball players based on their entire careers. So did Friedl and Suarez.
And Singer. A few other Reds SP. And several Reds RP, notably Santillan.
I think soccer isn’t so much popular as kids are pushed into it from a young age because it is cheaper to outfit and run soccer team’s than football and baseball
It was quite an expense for my family in the fifties to get my three brothers and I a good mitt and spike shoes since, at various times, we all played H.S. and American Legion ball.
Polling indicates that football took over as America’s favorite sport in the mid 1960’s according to Harris polling. Gallup polling was getting the same results in the early 1970’s. Maybe I shouldn’t have said NFL and should have said football, which would include college football and the NFL versus just MLB. Either way, football is king and has been for longer than I’ve been alive.
I will also ask for citations on the “teams used AI to draft” players stuff. It’s a bold and very likely very misleading claim. Is it likely that some teams used “AI” to sort through some stats to use in their discussions of players to draft? Yeah. Is that any different than teams doing that exact same thing using an Excel spreadsheet three years ago? No, it’s not. They just use a fancier word for it now because it sounds “cooler” or “smarter”.
I would support a cap and a floor. If the same amount of money is spent on salaries, why would the union not be o.k. with that. Allowing a couple of teams to skew the market to their advantage is not good for competition. If no cap, then a floor and a more equitable distribution of revenues might help. If football can do it and there is no mention of the disparity between big markets like LA and rich owners like Dallas and everyone can hope for a winning team. And the Reds will not even make an offer to Tarik Skabul. The Reds do not go shopping in the high-rent district. More like Walmart.
Being in the south, yep, football is king. Even a college WS title at Tennessee did little to elevate their visibility. Yes, the Vols manager, Tony Vitello did get a promotion to manage the Giants, just as their talent withered on the vine. On the other hand, football players are worshiped with NIL money, status and glory. Pre-season games are packed and televised and ex-US Senators, Ben Sasse, write articles for the WSJ extolling the virtues of football in building teamwork and character. I would very much agree too that AI is not necessary for data wonks who use analytics to discern baseball talent, though I have no idea how WAR is computed, but I still don’t think it should be used to hand out awards such as ROY (sarc).
The decline of western civilization began with the decline in popularity of baseball.
See Dreams, Field of (movie a long time ago).
From an article I read this morning:
“Larkin’s message received praise from future Hall of Famer Joey Votto. Chatterbox Sports shared a link with Larkin’s comments posted to X (formerly Twitter), and Votto reposted it with the message, “Captain Lark 100.””
Well, but they’re wrong. Robert Fitch said so.
Advanced metrics, that’s were we got them, with geometric logic. That how the strawberries were stolen from the refrigerator.
And I remember years ago, that the proprietors of Red Reporter (ie, Joel Luckhaupt, at the time, now a statistician for the Reds TV broadcasting network), saying that Joe Morgan’s commentary on a national baseball contest just showed how little he understood the game, and how wrong he was.
Sure, two time NL MVP, Hall of Famer. Stupid Joe Morgan……RIP, Joe, you were great.
Everybody is dumb unless they agree with me.
Sorry, I am not trying to actually insult anyone here, but we all fall into this mental trap, from time to time. Perhaps we should all reflect that none of us know everything, and that people are flawed.
If you got Phil Castellini in a room, and interviewed him for a couple of hours, you would probably come away with a better understanding of why he thinks the way he does. Maybe, probably wrong on his part, but he does not do these things to be perverse and torment the fans on purpose. Ditto Nick Krall.
If I were in charge, I would probably fire Nick and Brad Meador, but I have no idea who I would hire in their place. They have had about 5 years, and the team is arguably worse than it was then, the organization is worse now than it was then. These decisions on personnel, trades, etc did not make themselves.
That’s an honest, emotion-free comment, David. It would be hard for anyone to refute it, though someone probably will.
Dick Wagner……………………………………. 1978–83
Bill Bergesch……………………………………. 1984–87
Murray Cook……………………………………. 1987–89
Bob Quinn……………………………………….. 1989–92
Jim Bowden…………………………………. 1992–2003
Dan O’Brien…………………………………….. 2003–06
Wayne Krivsky…………………………………. 2006–08
Walt Jocketty……………………………….. 2008–2015
Dick Williams………………………………… 2016-2018
Nick Krall…………………………………. 2018–Present
IMO Phil’s goal is to turn a profit while investing as little as possible in the team payroll.
And he has been quite good at this to the detriment of the fans.
@ Oldtimer
I thought that Dick Williams (the younger) was in charge through 2021? I thought he was forced out in August 2021. He was forced to resign because of the signings he made to build up the 2020 team, and the “lost money”, which was screwed up because of the mis-begotten Covid shut downs.
I guess I was wrong in my recollections.
Those are the GMs, not PBOs.
Not his fault, but 10 of the 16 Reds teams on which Votto played were below .500 W-L. Cumulatively all 16 of those teams were below .500 W-L. Years 2008 through 2023 (not counting one month in 2007). Despite his many talents, the Reds were disappointing most years.
They were disappointing because of bad front office moves. The Reds were actually trending positive through Votto’s first seven years, and then came a series of awful trades and the $100M Homer Bailey extension. Hello, downward spiral.
The Reds 2008 to 2023 (most years) had plenty of talent. Most just weren’t very good teams.
The Reds won NL Central in 2010 and 2012. Before that, 1995. Before that, 1990. Before that, 1979.
That’s 1-2-3-4-5, FIVE division titles in 50 years.
The GM who won in 1990 got fired in 1992.
I would count 6 divisions in 50 years as the Reds had the best record in baseball in 1981, but were jobbed by MLB.
1979, 1990, 1995, 2010, 2012 division titles between 1977 and 2026 (50 years). I count 5.
Reds were second in both halves of 1981. First half winners didn’t try very hard the second half of 1981.
No, in 2015 they began a semi-rebuild. A bad one. The trades, as some people predicted, sent the franchise backwards for years. The talent level suffered. They used a similar semi-rebuild blueprint in 2022 — more trades that have not turned out well. Those were all under the leadership of Jocketty, Williams, and Krall/Meador. Sorry if those were/are personal friends. Oh, and there’s no need to respond with a download of irrelevant historical information, but thanks anyway!
Back to grade school math. Five division titles in 50 years. Wagner 1. Cook 1. Bowden 1. Jocketty 2.
(Why watch or follow the Reds this week)
… Elly De La Cruz is a pair of steals and a pair of homers away from posting a 30/30 season, while Sal Stewart sits a lone RBI behind Alec Burleson for the MLB lead there in his chase for both a) a season OPS that begins with .8 and b) the NL Rookie of the Year Award …
+100,000 definitely reason to at least follow the games if not watch them.
Oldtimer, I agree, that is one fun thing about baseball, even when your team is bad, to follow individual or even some team stats. I think that’s why I like baseball so much honestly. There’s a few stats in football, and basketball that are fun to follow, but doesn’t compare to baseball.
I’m hoping Stewart can get a grand slam in the next few games to really jump ahead of Burleson. That’s the main thing I’m curious about. I didn’t realize Elly was close to 30/30 but that would be a pretty cool accomplishment.
On a small level, maybe Lodolo can get below 5 ERA on the season. On another note, I had no clue Lodolo has pitched over 100 innings. It almost seems like he hasn’t been on the team at times due to so many injuries/ineffectiveness. Hopefully he can stay healthy next year.
Would like to see everyone finish with no more injuries of course. Like to see them all finish well, but Antone, Burke and Pagan have had good years in the bullpen, and can finish with some pretty impressive numbers.
@oldtimer One of many things I don’t like about Baseball Reference is that you cannot copy the explanation of various analytic reference.
You can copy and paste if you click on glossary and scroll down to whatever you are looking for.
I tried that. I couldn’t get it to work.
Rtot — Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Avg
The number of runs above or below average the player was worth based on the number of plays made.
This number combines the Rtz, Rdp, Rof, Rcatch numbers into a total defensive contribution.
See the glossary section for a more complete explanation.