On Sunday afternoon in Milwaukee the Cincinnati Reds put an end to a 5-game losing streak with a 4-3 win over the Brewers. Following the win, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer broke the story that Nick Krall said he expects himself, as well as the front office staff under him as well as the manager to all return for the 2027 season.
Krall took the blame for the failures of the 2026 season, noting that he’s the president of baseball operations and oversees everything, so it’s “on him.”
The Reds do have a small core of difference making players who are 25 and under. But when you go beyond that group of players there’s very little to look at for 2027 and think it’s going to be all that helpful. Tyler Stephenson is a free agent, the rotation beyond Chase Burns has been a disaster this season, the bullpen has had a few guys perform well to go along with a plethora of guys who haven’t and that’s before you even consider how fickle a bullpen and even a reliever can be from year to year. They are also one of the worst hitting teams in the league. And then you look at the farm system, and while there is some talent worth talking about in the minor leagues, there’s not much there to look forward to seeing in 2027.
There could be plenty of money to spend in free agency or in player salaries acquired through trades this offseason. Cincinnati has expiring deals on several guys, has money coming off of the books for Jeimer Candelario, and isn’t likely to pick up the option on Eugenio Suarez. But will any of that be useful to the Reds, who tend to wait around and wait around to try and pick up free agent scraps halfway through the offseason in a normal year, when there’s expected to be a lockout (as Rob Manfred said a year ago, saying the owners will use an offseason lockout as leverage) that will halt any and all discussions between teams and players until a new collective bargaining agreement is reached. If that last for any real amount of time then teams will be left scrambling to acquire players immediately as they are showing up for spring training.
Toss in a “free for all” situation as players are showing up and also not exactly knowing what the parameters could be for the CBA and what it means for the team’s finances, it’s probably going to be a real tough situation for a team that almost assuredly needs a massive alteration of the roster.
Nick Krall took over for Dick Williams as the top man in the front office as far as “baseball people” go after the 2020 season. Since then the Reds are 457-502. They had a winning record in 2021 (83-79), 2023 (82-80, and 2025 (83-79). In 2022 the club lost 100 games for just the second time in the history of the franchise. Currently the team is 70-79 with 13 games remaining.
Since the start of 2021 nine teams have had a worse record than Cincinnati has. Matt Wilkes, who used to write here at Redleg Nation, points out that eight of those nine teams have fired the top baseball person during that time and replaced them. Only the Pirates have not.
Between a looming lockout, a disappointing season, and this news, the season ticket sales group at Great American Ball Park is probably having a real tough time doing their job right now. Imagine talking to people and asking them to give you a whole lot of money in advance for 2027 Cincinnati Reds baseball.
They are not serious about winning then- the owners.
To put it VERY NICELY keeping Krall proves that this is NOT a winning organization.
I suppose if Bob and Phil C. were going to sell the new owner would bring in his own people anyway. There’s always that hope.
Spot on Melvin. Even when the Reds win today, we still lost.
Very disappointing news. Zero accountability.
Seems to be our only hope.
+4,256
These owners couldn’t care less about Reds fans and how much pain they put us through. hahaha
Coming out with this news on NFL’s opening weekend after a Bengals win was a calculated move. It is the Friday news dump of sports.
Krall “expects” to be back next year. The silver lining, slight as it may be, is that ownership doesn’t feel the same.
Wonder if the Reds lose all of the rest of their games if they would still feel the same. This currently is my Hope. Let the good players continue to do well but the rest of the team flops and loses games. This might help out draft position for next season, and maybe the owners change their minds.
I for one don’t plan on following baseball anymore if there is no team salary floor and cap on baseball. Sick of teams not having a fair fight, or at the least a closer battle. If owners can’t afford a player salary minimum floor, then they shouldn’t be team owners anymore.
Also, I am all for the Reds getting sold if you have not figured that out.
That is, in a word, tuuurrrrribbbblllleee.
Unbelievable! I don’t know how anyone can take this organization seriously.
And therein lies my secret: I haven’t taken them seriously for years. I’ve been a Reds’ fan for 60 years, give or take, and for the last 30 years, I view them as a no-expectation vehicle for enjoying baseball. If serious, committed owners replace the current bunch, and I’m still using air, food and water, I might start agonizing over them again.
If Krall and his cronies are back intact, the fan base will not be back intact.
He took the blame for the failure 2027. Is he psychic? That’s bad news.
Typos should be illegal.
Or Prophetic
needn’t be either/or, Colorado Red.
Krall is just telling us that he will continue taking the blame because next season will be bad as well.
I will be majorly shocked if:
1. We have either a partial season or a season at all next year.
2. If the Reds actually go out and get some quality players. We don’t need superstars we have a few already. Just go get some guys who are 15 to 25 percent better than league average. I know this is not a simple task but at least show effort toward this goal. Please get some people who don’t have strikeout rates over 25%. I don’t care how many home runs they hit.
For me, and I know I am one of few, but. . .
I simply feel that too many people who have been brought upon the BRM of the 60’s and 70’s are looking for a team like that. That will never come again. Get that thought out of your mind.
However, a team that can play better ball shouldn’t be that impossible.
Myself, I believe Krall did an “alright” job. I won’t say “good” or excellent. But, I believe he did what he was suppose to do, put out there what was a winning team.
After 1 month, we were in first place. But, I told everyone to, “Watch out.” Because we were living with winning literally all of the 1 run games. And, our bullpen was the only part of the team that was above average. No other part of our team was doing anything. Once the bullpen went down, that was it.
But, with so many players on the active roster who were high prospects coming up batting so poor or pitching so poor, how is that Krall’s fault? These kids were showing talent in the minors, including those we brought up. Very few excelled once brought up, though.
What about the one guy several years ago we brought in who was suppose to “design a minor league pitching development system” or something of that sort, where we were suppose to be able to produce a couple of Burns each year.
I mean, Krall got players who “should have worked out”. I firmly believe that. They simply didn’t work out. Judging Krall’s job “after the fact”, you are essentially telling him , “You need to predict the future.” No one can do that.
Now, enough of that. What will happen now? With the “end of the season” review, if Krall doesn’t get a new hitting coach, then I have to think, “Get rid of Krall”. That’s an obvious step that needs to happen. If not a new pitching coach, also.
And, what players? Singer has to be gone. I’m cutting bait with McLain, also. And, Friedl (Lord, I was hoping he was going to be a mainstay). I would love to keep Hayes for the hot corner. But, with his hitting, if we don’t shore up other offensive weaknesses, he has to be gone. Suarez hasn’t been worth the investment, either. I can’t help keeping Stephenson. DH him when he gets off his C dutires.
Now, I would have loved to see Lowe stay. But, Lowe isn’t doing much with Clevelend either right now.
I’m willing to try Lodolo and Greene for one more season. But, more injuries, then cut bait with them.
I still think a weakness in the team is scouting and player development, specifically from the minors to the majors and including the players first season in the majors. For, again, like I’ve said, we’ve had some top prospects in there, and/or traded for some from other teams. But, how many have played well? For instance, McLain, CES, and Elly were raking it at AAA. McLain had one good year, but that was it. Nothing since. CES kept on trying to hit every ball that was pitched to him, causing him to get overstretched. Elly has been good, but not anywhere near his minor league numbers. . .yet. Given their minor league numbers, one would think all 3 of them would at least be with Elly’s numbers right now.
So, I can’t help thinking, , .who said these guys were ready? Was anyone ever able to identify their weaknesses, and work on them?
Honestly, I’m sort of worried about Burns and Stewart. For, Abbott was good last season. He’s a shell of himself now. McLain was good his rookie season, nothing now. CES had a productive season with his first time with the Reds, in 2023. But, nothing since then. It’s like, commonly, the other teams have studied the films and learned how to play them. And/or they are trying something that simply isn’t working.
The problem with doing just an OK job with a small market team is you really need smart baseball people to make a consistently competitive playoff team with a relatively limited budget. These guys ain’t so smart. While deals like those for Martinez, Singer, “he who shall not be named on this site” and Hays were OK to good, the Moustakis, Candelario and Hayes deals were terrible, and collectively fireable. We don’t know how the new CBA will change the dynamics of running a team but we can hope if there’s a salary floor that it’s high enough to inspire our ownership group to sell to a group willing to keep the team in Cincy.
Redsfan63, I agree with you. Small market teams like the Reds can be successful, look at the Rays and Brewers. We just need to be smart and make wise trades and transactions. I have been saying this for months now and get the snot beat out of me for it in comments. The Reds should trade Elly sooner rather than later. They will never be able to afford him. Like Votto said a few weeks ago, he thinks Elly will be in the $700 million 10-12 year range, Scott Boras will certainly see to that.
Trade Elly and bring back a good return that could turn the Reds into a contender. Sign SS to a long term deal if you can, Sign Tyler to an extension because catching is at a premium and Dunno is not ready, sign MM to an extension and hope he rebounds so you can flip him down the road. Let Geno walk and maybe resign him for less later? Release KBH or include him in an Elly trade? I have zero faith in our FO or ownership but follow the Brewers and Rays blueprint and think outside the box.
I agree with your first paragraph . The game has changed so we will never see a brm again.
I Can’t remember if it was Krall or Bell that said we are trying to eliminate the ” peaks and valleys “. We have definitely eliminated the peaks and for the most part the valleys have been eliminated. Even this year is not a total disaster.
Honestly I don’t think it matters who the owners or GM is the reds are going to be mediocre for a while. Just not enough talent in the league now for more than maybe 8 to 10 good teams. Any top free agent ain’t coming to Cincinnati. I think Schwarber proved that.
I think baseball just needs a revival in this country with the youth. The Bengals are because of Joe Burrow And Jamar Chase not Mike Brown. Any young kid nowadays with athletic talent is hoping to play football or soccer. No baseball equivalents of Burrow and Chase coming up and it is hurting teams like the reds
“I still think a weakness in the team is scouting and player development, specifically from the minors to the majors and including the players first season in the majors.”
Is Krall not responsible for that? Who hires, fires, and assigns responsibilities to the personal in these departments?
Also if players continue to flop in large numbers, don’t you have to ask the question “why?”
I am sorry, Krall has been in this position for 6 years now. Beyond that, there have been have no major shakeups since Bob fired Wayne Krivksy in April of 2008. Walt was the GM and Dick was his top assistant. Walt retired, Dick became the GM and President of Baseball ops, and in 2018 Dick gave Krall the GM title. In 2020, Dick stepped down to work elsewhere in his Father/Uncle’s business empire, and Krall became the Reds top Executive.
If Krall were on the open market, how many other teams would invite him to interview to be a GM or President of Baseball Ops?
Agree that many of us long for the BRM decade (plus) 1970 to 1981.
A step further, from 1956 to 2000, the Reds were first or second 22 times out of those 45 seasons. Sometimes in NL Pennant race, sometimes in divisional race.
From 2001 to 2025 (25 seasons), the Reds have been first or second TWICE. 2010 and 2012.
Respectfully, I don’t think the desire to see the Reds win a playoff series (even a best of three Wild Card) for the first time in 31 years is an unrealistic expectation rooted in the Big Red Machine.
I don’t know anyone who is delusional enough to even daydream about a team close to the BRM. Nick Krall has done a terrible job with the little money that he’s been given. The farm system has been an equal disappointment, other than those who have a gift for the game. We know who those are. Nick Krall is responsible for the ENTIRE mess. By the way, giving the entire organization’s pitching staff development to Derek Johnson also has been a disaster. I don’t care about your spin rate when you can’t throw strikes!
Krall breaking this news isn’t really news. It’s likely true, but rather unorthodox for a PBO level position to endorse himself. As for Suarez’s, who here really believes the Reds will sign someone better? Maybe Hayes steps up next year? McLain? Friedl? Time to quit hoping and face reality. Suarez is as good as it gets for these guys
And, who evaluates Krall?
Last year, Krall announced they were going to sit down in the off season and evaluate all aspects of the organization.
My question then was the same as today, Who evaluates Nick Krall?
Someone who doesn’t care too much about winning or doesn’t know what they’re doing….or both.
That’s what I noticed – this “news” that the FO will remain intact is per Krall. But he doesn’t decide (does he?). We can only hope that maybe they haven’t told him yet.
Some things I agree with. Such as the irrational expectations for another rendition of the BRM. I do think they need a different hitting philosophy and a more aggressive offensive game plan. They strike out way too much and when the HRs don’t materialize, they don’t score. Sort of like a beer league softball team. They need to run more and take the extra base every chance they get. They need to move runners up with bunts, hitting behind runners, etc. I think you have to upgrade 3B and 2B and the outfield should provide more offense. Speaking of unreal expectations. Expecting minor league numbers in the majors is not realistic. With any kind of spurt, Elly could be a 30/30 player this year. That is a top level player. He just needs to get better – more consistent, on the routine plays. He still makes plays that most do not. I watched Alfredo Dunno a week ago in a MiL game. He did not have the best of games. But he has shown by his numbers that there is a potential star in the making. I am very concerned by the lack of pitching in the upper minors. Pitching injuries happen – a lot. Building depth at the ML and MiL levels is a must. The overall is the Reds mostly need to upgrade their talent level at almost every position. And, they need to get a lot better at fundamentals, like situational hitting and putting pressure on an opposing defense.
I think this is not ethical. If Krall took the blame of this bad season on himself then he should resign…The ownership is proving it is unserious if keeps Krall and this complete technical staff…
I don’t like this logic. He didn’t sabotage things. He wasn’t working to make the team/organization fail.
But he has done a best a poor job of setting the team up to win.
Refuses to make trades when needed.
He is below avg at best, and terrible at worst.
Just not expected results in the sport through several years , he knows it and admits it but he remains in charge nonetheless…I don’t think that is correct…
Doug, that is quite true.
On the other hand, a consistent problem with the Reds’ organization is poor player evaluation. Other teams do a lot better with that than the Reds do. Krall can be a big man and step up and take the blame, but what I would really like to see is him step up, and thoughtfully explain WHY he should take the blame and HOW the organization is going to be better in 2027. Nick, how are you going to do a better job in 2027? And really, explain this. Maybe not this minute, when there are still games to be played, and no need to kick a particular player or coach when things kind of stink, but talk about accountability. What are you, Nick Krall, going to do to be better at your position, in 2027?
A lot of things went wrong for the Reds in 2026, but people overlook what went right, beyond expectations.
1) Nobody really expected Chase Burns to have quite the season he has had.
2) I can’t believe anybody really expected Sal Stewart to have the season that he has had.
3) after a lousy start, Tyler Stephenson has had a really good year. He did not quit on himself, and kept at it.
On the other hand, TJ Friedl has been really bad, unexpectedly. His play has just fallen off the table. A really good guy who has always hustled, played well, played hurt in the past.
McLain continues to be McLain. Not the 2023 McLain, but the McLain from all the other years.
Hunter Greene was pretty much a loss for the whole year, and won’t be back until 2028. For a guy who was supposed to be the Reds’ ace, he is just not there.
The acquisition of Ke’Bryan Hayes has actually exceeded in failure (in my little mind) the really bad acquisition of Jeimer Candalario. That’s totally on Nick Krall. Signing players that are actually below League Replacement value.
Rhett Lowder, for a being a #1 draft choice, is still struggling. I hope he is in shape and better for 2027.
Is Andrew Abbott losing arm strength and velocity? Will 2027 be WORSE than 2026? Some guys bounce back, some don’t.
Nick Lodolo, also a #1 draft choice, has been another disappointment. Always injured and missing games.
A lot of these things are, in the case of the President of Baseball Operations, Nick Krall, beyond his control. But the team as put together out of Spring Training, had observable flaws. The first month of the season was, in perfect hindsight, their best month, never to be repeated the rest of the year. The following month was really bad.
As the late, great Sparky Anderson once said (or many times)…”The cream always rises to the top. If you don’t rise to the top, maybe you don’t have no cream anymore.”
The Reds DO have some really good players, just not nearly enough. They need to cut bait with players that have had plenty of AB’s or innings pitched, that have negative WAR value.
This is not magic.
I read the comment as, “if he takes the blame for the team being bad, why doesn’t he resign?”
Which I think is a valid question considering the team is devoid of talent at all levels.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=hayeske01&t=b&year=2026 The Reds are 47-36 when Hayes plays. The Reds are 23-43 when Hayes doesn’t play. He may not cause the W, but he doesn’t cause more L than W.
Hayes won Gold Glove in 2025 and Reds made playoffs.
@OT, give it up. It’s not casual. Hayes is a waste of money, no matter how well he fields. Look at Milwaukee. They have some great defensive players who also HIT the ball. The Reds, for the most part, don’t. Hayes is consuming roster space and payroll dollars that should be deployed for productive players. Defense is nice, but research shows that offense beats defense. Period. And the Reds have one of the least productive offenses in baseball.
I agree with poor player eval. Here are the 1st round selections since 1991 and the “head cheese” that was in charge of the selection. How many of them would you say were successful major leaguers? Given the 1st two are still in the minors.
Krall lebron
Krall hall
Krall burns
Krall lowder
Krall collier
Krall mclain
williams hendricks
williams lodolo
williams india
williams greene
williams senzel
jocketty t stephenson
jocketty howard, blandino
jocketty ervin, lorenzen
jocketty travieso, winker, gelalich
jocketty r stephenson
jocketty grandal
jocketty leake, boxberger
krivsky alonso
krivsky mesoraco, frazier, lotzkar
krivsky stubbs
o’brien bruce
o’brien bailey
bowden r wagner
bowden gruler
bowden sowers
bowden espinosa, moseley
bowden howington
bowden kearns
bowden larson
bowden oliver
bowden nitkowski
bowden watkins
quinn mottola
quinn reese
If Krall/Francona was under a more assertive press they would have been shown the door. At the end of the day,they have the longest streak of not winning a playoff series in organized sports. If winning is the goal,there should be no debate………..they are gone. End of story.
I hope they go after a hitting catcher. Don’t QO Singer. Spend the money on a few arms. They wouldn’t have to be great when replacing Brady of 26. We need outfielders a LHH first baseman multiple arms for the pitching staff. A lot of holes to fill
Agree please don’t QO Singer, He is a healthy guy but 23 million for a guy is a #4 at best is not worth it to me. That 23 million could be spent in upgrading the bullpen or for a better hitter.
No way.
Best they can do with the looming lockout.
In the Enquirer story, Krall states: “We’ve got a good core group of players.” He goes on to mention three: De La Cruz, Burns and Stewart.
That’s the problem — they’ve only got three, plus a few other young guys who might, maybe, could amount to something some day.
A championship-caliber core requires many more than just three. Witness what the Brewers and Cubs have put together.
Krall is deluding himself if he thinks the Reds are anywhere near that level, and/or that a tweak or two, an upgrade or two, will put the Reds back into contention.
I am going to say that it’s probably a little more than those three players who could be nice pieces for the overall club.
Like …? Not the maybe’s or could be’s. Bonafide major league players who are under contract and who infuse confidence every time they step to the plate or mound. What’s the list? Excite me.
A pro active less conservative ownership would have fired them now. Started inquiring on who’s available from the most successful organizations. But this is Cincinnati. I just don’t get that mindset.
“A pro active less conservative ownership would have fired them now.”
They would have fired the person who traded for Hayes and continues to keep him on the roster. That alone would be enough.
If so, they would have fired the second GM this century who acquired a Gold Glove 3B mid-season when the Reds made the playoffs (2010 Walt Jocketty was the other time).
Reds are 47-36 when said 3B plays and 23-43 when he doesn’t.
“Reds are 47-36 when said 3B plays and 23-43 when he doesn’t.”
To use your own words, “So what?” It has nothing to do with how bad Hayes is.
I don’t know what’s more difficult to digest. Hayes’ .148 average and 8 RBIs with less than two weeks to go … or the fans who try to tell us he’s actually a bright spot.
Back to KBH. By @OT’s logic all we need is a whole team full of KBH.
Seriously , defense is great , and I enjoy watching him play defense.
If we had four or five Jim Maloney’s we could afford some all D no hit players.
But he is an out in a uni and that’s never changing.
Don’t know when his contract runs out. Since next season has a 50/50 shot at not happening, if Krall’s contract runs through ‘27 there would really be no reason to pay two people during a work stoppage for one job, the Krall pay/off and new guy.
In terms of the team’s entire budget, Krall’s salary isn’t much. They have paid Francona and Bell to manage the team for the 2025 and 2026 season.
@ MK. Yes, exactly. That’s not the “Castellini Way of Winning Baseball”
They should write a book about that. It would be a very short book, though. Take over a team with a good farm system and some really good young players about to arrive. Make a few trades (like getting Scott Rolen), and BINGO! we look like geniuses. Except the team and organization have visibly gone DOWNHILL since 2013. When all the previous talent started to fade, and not much help in the farm system.
And pretty much, here we are, at the end of 2026. All of Bob Castellini’s promises from the takeover pretty much ring hollow now. Winning baseball.
Maybe if Shoeless Joe would come back and play in Cincinnati….nah, that’s just a movie.
The Reds have finished first or second TWICE in this century. Both times, the Reds were owned by the Castellini family.
The Reds have made the playoffs five times in this century. All five times, the Reds were owned by the Castellini family.
@oldtimer
Three times since they were second in 2000 so 2 of the three times have been with the Castellini.
Yawn. It doesn’t surprise me and I’m not sure why people thought they would get rid of Krall. Nothing to see here.
I am speechless. Isn’t doing the same thing over and over and expecting it to change insanity. I guess this answers the question about wanting to field a winning team.
I’m always going to be a Reds fan, but man, ownership and management sure make it harder than it should be.
It is really sad to see what’s happened to this franchise.Krall not being fired is unbelievable.
The Reds of the 2000s are hardly the same franchise as the 1900s. A terrible trade for Ken Griffey, Jr started the dropoff. Firing Dusty Baker and replacing him with Bryan Price (arguably the Reds worst manager of my lifetime, born 1951) made it worse.
Oldtmer, Can I remind you of Don Heff née and Vern Rapp. Rogers Hornsby wasn’t real good either. You aren’t only old guy (1953) here.
Heffner
I really believe this team was snakebit considerably more than the norm as per injuries and underperformance. I don’t think blowing it up will get them ahead. They have to swallow the disappointments and do as much incremental improvement as possible. One of these days the worm will turn and turn big!
1) No matter what course they take there is no getting away from the fact that a healthy Greene by next September must be in the plan. Should bolster playoff performance should they get there.
2) Again, no matter the course they must expect Burns will still be healthy next year and dominating for 180+ innings.
3) Even still no matter the course they must expect Lodolo to be beyond the blisters but still refine the new grips. They simply will not find a more likely pitcher to dominate for the price.
4) It also goes without saying that there is no replacement for Abbott available for the price with his kind of track record.
5) The most hope that I can muster must center around that Lowder just hit a bump in the road these last few starts.
6) I finally am ready to move on from Singer as his stuff has diminished considerably. They have to look for a replacement there but I’m ok with Williamson as a placeholder until such time.
6) It is desperately important to sign QB1 to an extension so that he can continue catching the bulk of innings until Duno arrives. However, QB1 needs to be considered the first baseman for 2/5 of all games which means Reds must sign a left-handed mashing first basement for the other 3/5 of all games. Who?
7) Sal Stewart needs to be at 3B for the entire season next year.
8) I’m finally ready to move on from McLain at 2B because I think the switch hitter Brito will do better. Matt can be the super utility player.
9) I’m not sold on Bleday but think this club with its limited resources must give him another go on the bench a la Jerry Lynch or Art Shamsky type. Count on Steer full time in LF.
10) Perhaps the most hope and a prayer is that Blake Dunn is the real deal in CF.
11) Hector probably provides the best bet for coming through for the team in RF.
12) They’ve still got Pagan next year. They need to resign Burke. Need another effective year from Teejay and Garcia. It is so frustrating to see Ashcraft’s pitches move as much as they do but still not get hitters out frequently enough. They need Santillan to rebound too. That leaves at least 2 bullpen spots unfilled because Phillips and Mey cannot get it together!
Brito, McLain, Bleday, and Dunn were part of one of the weakest offenses (and a last place team) in 2026. If they are back, then 2027 will be similar to 2026. We definitely need big improvement pieces at CF,1B, and 2B to be competitive with the Cubs and Brewers. And I am not sure about HRod or our new C (pretty big shoes to fill there). I can not imagine keeping Elly and Sal and not improving our weaker positions. Makes no sense to me. In my mind, our biggest priority this winter is signing Elly for the next 5+ years so we have a chance when this mess comes together. We are kidding ourselves if we think losing Elly will eventually make us a better team. The plan to build around Elly for 2025-2028 was the right plan. It hasn’t been executed very well at all, Elly himself hasn’t been resigned, and the clock continues to tick. Elly can’t be happy with the caliber of team we continue to run out there, and probably would be even better “captaining” a better built team. Awful team building.
Elly will not sign an extension with the Reds. His agent, Scott Boras, has made that abundantly clear. He will try the Free Agent market when his time comes. So Scott gets another big payday. I dunno, if the offered Elly $500 million for 6 years, even Boras might sign for that. Not going to happen, though. Not worth it to the Reds, either. Tooooooo much.
Sal Stewart MIGHT be willing to sign and extension… soon. They just gave Burns a nice extension.
Have to disagree David. If the Reds want to be competitive in the next 2-3 years, they have to retain Elly. Right? And I will assume they intend to turn this offense around and be competitive with the Brewers and Cubs. It makes absolutely no sense to me to retain Elly for 2028-2028 and then dump him for a a bunch of prospects and a rebuild in 2029. You piece that together and there are only 2 logical paths forward. Trade him now for a bushel of 2028-2029 prospects. Or sign him well past 2030.
Imo, not getting Elly under contract for the long term also sends a bad message to Sal. A message of “you shouldnt expect a winning team built around you in the next few years either.” Sal seems pretty competitive to me and money may not prevail over playoff competitiveness. For the next 2-3 years, Elly’s pay (unsigned) isn’t getting any larger whether he is a Red or a Cub. 2029 is when the pinch point comes. Would you rather play in the bright lites and playoffs or play another 5 years in Cincy? I know my answer would be the same as Elly’s.
The front office holds at least 50% of the bag here. We have not come close to putting a Division contending team on the field in Elly’s tenure. He has been a 5-6 WAR player in many of those years. How many other players can say that? Maybe 5-10? How many are on losing teams?
If the front office doesn’t choose to put together a Division contending team, that is unfortunately their choice. But that doesn’t take away Elly’s or Sal’s choices. As I said before, if I were Elly, I wouldn’t want to stick around in this mess. Fix it or trade me. He and Boras know there are about 6-8 playoff like teams that would love his services. The Reds are the only team in mlb that can resign Elly in the next 3 years. They are choosing to weaken their bargaining position.
This is not hard to find.
Yahoo Sports, posted in the last 20 hours. Previous posts also confirm this.
https://tinyurl.com/pzryufdj
Maybe Boras is really just pulling our collective legs, and he wants Elly to sign with the Reds. Really.
Who is kidding who here?
I think Elly is a marvelous, amazing baseball player, and would love for the Reds to sign him up and keep him for years, but it is not going to happen. I wish it were otherwise. Sal Stewart’s agent is Dan Lozano, and have no idea what he is like or his track record as an agent.
Stephenson really struggled defensively at first base. But I agree they need to sign him
I don’t trust Dunno will become a major league catcher
Dunno is a Major League hitter right now and believe he will be a Major League Catcher in 2027if there is a season.
We’ll see how the chips fall after the Lock Out.
But he has done a best a poor job of setting the team up to win.
Refuses to make trades when needed.
He is below avg at best, and terrible at worst.
The only thing I’m wondering is, as a few mentioned, maybe this is more of Krall putting this out there about himself, and it not being fully the thinking of the ownership? It sounds convincing, but I do feel like I’ve heard management say things like this before, and then they’re fired a few weeks later.
I guess in the Reds minds, they could think they’ve had 3 winning seasons since 2020 when Krall took over, and this was just a down year, kind of like the Braves and DBacks had last year, and the Reds will be back above .500 next year.
But I think most of us aren’t seeing that. The talent just doesn’t look to be there, and they’ve missed on so many free agent signings recently, and strategy moves in 2026, you don’t have a lot of confidence for 2026.
The other thing of course is the win total. If Krall’s winning teams had won say 87, 90, 86 games in those 3 winning seasons, I’d probably be for him continuing. But they’re just obviously slightly above mediocrity in those seasons. They seem to be going backwards now too.
It’d be kind of sad, but I think the wise move would be to trade De La Cruz in the offseason for a big time package and try to shoot for 2029 while you still have Burns, Stewart, and potentially even Hunter Greene for one final year.
Unless the Reds just make huge free agent signings, and huge trades, it’s hard to see them being a playoff team with De La Cruz in 27-28.
don’t have a lot of confidence for 2027 I meant
History says the Reds rarely make huge FA signings (why would top shelf FA sign here) and have few trade chips available to make big trades.
Unfortunately, you are right. The front office has made it clear that they prefer McLain, Hayes, Marte, Arroyo, Dunn, Friedl, etc. over Stephenson, Lowe, and Elly.
That is utterly false. I won’t dignify it further.
False? Sorry but I don’t know how you can say that McLain and Hayes have put together back to back weak hitting seasons and the front office has kept them around with no signs of a DFA. Arroyo and Marte have been demoted to the minors but same story of weak hitting, just not as prolonged. But still hanging around. Friedl put on waivers yes, but not replaced or upgraded. Still here. I am not advocating an exit plan for Marte and Arroyo as they still are young and deserve another test run. But they have not proved they are good players. None of the 5 have proven they can hit and they all are still with us.
Opposingly, Lowe, a good hitter, is already gone and Stephenson, another solid offensive player, is 3/4 of the way out the door. Elly, an elite player, is going to need to be paid or he will soon be gone. 3 good players on short leases. 4-5 players who have not performed are still hanging around. ???
It wouldn’t be inconceivable to me to see McLain, Hayes, or Arroyo in the Reds system longer than Elly or Tyler. I hope not but I think that would validate my point.
The Dexter Lawrence trade happened because of what was happening in that season tix office.
The question is, do Reds fans even have the passion at this point? Have they worked the fan base into a weird apathy where we’ve accepted what this is but keep vaguely showing up.
Our only hope is for this to get downright embarrassing at the end, empty stadium, -300 run diff, Trevino qualifies as a pitcher, that it somehow shames them into making changes.
The fact the Brown family appears capable of more shame then the Castellinis is truly sobering.
I think RLN commenters are a small subset of the Reds fanbase.
The Reds had 2 million (plus) in attendance in 2023-24-25 and will be close in 2026.
Well they must be Hayes fans who think the reason they win games is when he starts. Your an excuse making machine no doubt when you are still defending the second coming of Ray Oyler and Dal Maxville as a hitter. And even they were not this bad and played in the second deadball era.
The fans coming a lot are fabs of other teams. Or just want free pizza. Not that it would matter much other than making the ownership look pathetic. And since they have no shame. Beacuse it seems people that make millions in investing and business ventures have some sort of lack of much of any comprehension of when they are wrong. That they are ever wrong. That you being negative is the reason things are failing. I
I have heard the senior Cast speak. He sounds a bit delusional. He even knew not trading players beacuse there was an AS game in Cincy May. May? Have been a bad idea. And his son of course probably never feels he’s wrong about anything.
@Tony, he must be the president of the KBH fan club. Look at his comments above. He sounds like a broken record saying the same thing over and over. Obsess much?
I have said MANY TIMES that Hayes is not the reason why the Reds are losing. I have supported that with facts. He is NOT THE REASON for losses PERIOD.
The Reds averaged 2 million (plus) in attendance the past three seasons (not yet this year). Not since 2015 did 2 million people come to Reds games until then.
Now if only the Reds could win as many games (12 out of 21 or 57%) as they did when Luke Weaver started in 2023.
He is PART of the losing. You might as well go out and shake your fist at the clouds because most here aren’t buying your rhetoric. The fact is KBH is a TERRIBLE hitter that is a good defender. He is not a good fit for a team full of guys who can’t hit consistently. His terrible hitting is PART of the losing. A guy hitting .148 is a BIG problem.
Yeah, if I had to guess, there are probably 50 regular commenters and 100 more “makes a comment once a week” types. Most people don’t spend any time on the internet commenting about sports, even avid sports fans.
Lotta broken records around here, Jedi Joey.
Hayes has been part of 36 L by Reds in 2026. They have 43 L without him.
Hayes has been part of 47 W by Reds in 2026. They have 23 W without him.
He is not the reason for either, but HE IS NOT the reason the Reds are Meh this year.
True, greenmtred. I will let him die on that hill if it is so important to him.
Maybe Dexter Lawrence can play CF.
Boycott.
Why not? Must be profitable to stay mired in mediocrity. Rinse and repeat.
I mean, where else are you going to go to watch baseball in Cincinnati?
I mean, huh (?), really? C’mon, you know it’s true. People will come out to watch a mediocre or sub-mediocre team, because….who else?
That’s how Phil Castellini thinks.
Spend JUST ENOUGH so that they just don’t really tank. The Lords of Baseball would frown on that. And Rob Manfredi is a real dork of a commissioner, if the first step in negotiating is a “lock out”.
The Reds averaged 2 million (plus) attendance in 2023-24-25 seasons. Their highest attendance since 2015.
If there is a season in 2027, it looks like things are set with this announcement by Nick Krall. Francona will complete his three-year contract next year, and a younger manager will be appointed. Someone from the Cincinnati Business Group will step forward and a new front office will be installed. Local ownership of the Red’s will remain to keep baseball’s first professional franchise in Cincinnati where it was founded in 1869.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/ the Reds started playing in the NL in 1882, not 1869. Yes, they were paid for playing from 1869 to 1882, but it was not in the NL.
The Oakland Athletic were arguably more successful than the Reds in the last 55 years but they moved. OAK won 4 WS and played in 6 WS in that timeframe. The Reds won 3 WS and played in 5 WS.
My blurb above did NOT say the Reds began in 1869. It says that baseball’s first professional team was founded in Cincinnati in 1869 and they were called the Red Stockings. Two years later the franchise moved to Boston. Then until 1881,Cincinnati was in the American Association, then considered major league. In 1882, the Cincinnati Reds became an original member of the National League and remain so today.
Not surprised at all and Krall said it was all on him so lets see if he can clean up the mess.Money to spend is a good thing if he can out bid others for what may be available and I am hearing not much is out there.He has 3 trade chips in Sal,Elly and Burns that could bring back several players but these 3 are relatively cheap right now so I don’t see Krall moving them.If there is baseball next year hard to see this team competing in their own division for any spot other then last place.If no baseball then 2028 will be as 2027 if they play.The marketing group has fans coming to the park but after this season and with this roster they may have to be more creative then ever before.We will see.
Creative ways to get fans to the ballpark?
Bobbleheads, all the way down.
Here’s the thing:
What has the FO done for the team in the last 15 years?
Castellinis: Promised Championship Baseball. Also: Where Ya Gonna Go?
Krall/Meador: Cannot evaluate talent, Cannot spend money wisely, cannot negotiate good trades. Doubled down on multiple players with injury history Hired a name manager who is clearly over the hill.
And now they will run it back. Ugh.
It’s over. Doug – you’ve done a heckuva job, but the only thing to save this franchise is a long lockout that causes a seismic shift in the MLB status Quo.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/ The Reds have a .504 W-L record in 145 seasons of NL baseball. They have made 17 playoff appearances in that timeframe. Except for the BRM decade, they have been pretty Meh as a franchise.
I agree with the decision to keep Krall. Did you forget that the Reds made the playoffs last year, and you want to fire Krall after a season with all of these injuries? I disagree that firing Krall now will fix the Reds. The Reds have some players like Marte, McLain, Suarez, and others who were suppose to play better this year. Who could have predicted Suarez would have such an off year when he hit 49 home runs last year? I thought Suarez would be more help this year in the middle of the lineup and most of you probably did as well. Where is Hunter this year? Yes, he has been injured. Who would have guessed that he would have such an off year? Do we blame that on Krall as well? I will give him another year before I get on the fire Krall train. He took responsibility for this disappointing season as he should. He deserves some credit as well for the Reds making the playoffs last year. Let’s see what can be done to better this team. The Reds are only one year removed from being a playoff team. It is possible they make the playoffs next year.
Reds may simply be waiting on a protracted labor stoppage and purging as many contracts end of season as possible and hope they can quickly sign cheap FA fillers in 2027 whenever an agreement and ramp up for a modified spring training is reached.
How does that work for players if say they start the season in late June? Do they get a full year of service time? Nick Lodolo is a guy who needs a full year of service time in 2027 to be eligible for FA in 2028.
I was at the Bengals game yesterday and saw Dick Williams. He seems content as Chairman of the Board of Skyline and being a Bengals fan. Reds seem to be a Castellini run organization moving forward…..sigh.
I read where he gave up the Skyline role.
No, just moved on from CEO and remains Chairman of the Board and will “continue working on the company’s strategy and long term growth” per local 12 news. He was at the game in orange Skyline Bengals shirt.
It goes to show you that the owners are content with losing and unfortunately for us fans it’s evident we will always be second class citizens and laughed at by all the other owners around the league
I think this is actually a good sign. I’m hopeful it means they’re not bringing on a new group because after the lockout, they are going to sell the team.
But people saying Krall did an okay job are delusional. The Candelario signing and the Hayes trade alone are firing offenses.
LOL at the second paragraph. Hayes won a Gold Glove at 3B and helped the Reds make the playoffs in 2025.
So you seriously believe that the Hayes trade was a good trade? Hilarious.
Delusional
He was benched much of the end of the year.
Much of his fielding numbers came with the Pirates.
He also missed time with a back issues.
A certain member of RLN does not understand the meaning of “Correlation is not causation”
I disagree about Hayes. You obviously can’t know the future. The team wanted to improve its defense. All signs pointed to that being an upgrade there. I think many were hoping for Hayes to hit around .210 to .220 or so.
The biggest issue for me is on base number and batting average have fallen off a cliff for this team. Sure, batting average is not everything, but players need to be hitting at least .240 in this day to be considered decent players. There are regularly like 4 or 5 guys in the lineup daily who are batting .215 or less and several of those are batting under .190. If half your team or so is not good at hitting, how do you expect to win games.
A casual look at Krall’s acquisition record seems like Candellario and Hayes are his main failed shots. One might say Suarez has disappointed too…though he’s not far off his career numbers (HRs SOs can’t count RBis because you need people on base for those). Martinez, Singer for India, Pagan, Lowe, Bleday, Myers, Burke, Naquin, Drury, Austin Hays, while not long term game changers I would argue have been servicable and some more so.
His ‘haul’ in the rebuild (CES, Fraley, Marte) didn’t work out except Steer. Arroyo and Rodriguez yet to be determined. Looked good on paper at the time.
I cant buy the arguement that he’s refused to make trades…we just don’t know what negotiations took place.
And I’m sorry, but who ever takes responsibility for failures and then resigns on principal…get fired , yes, but resigns????. Can’t think of anyone.
Hayes won a Gold Glove and helped the Reds make the 2025 playoffs. The Reds are 47-36 in games he played in 2026 and 23-43 in games where he didn’t or couldn’t play.
His defense is insane. He needs a Bat Whisperer though.
He is not a factor in the Reds winning or losing.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/2026.shtml the Reds have an 86 ERA+ (pitching) and 94 OPS+ (hitting, et al).
Methinks the pitching is a bigger reason for the Reds losing. The Reds are a .500 W-L team (27 W and 27 L) since the ASG in July.
Hayes’ negative WAR objectively makes him part of the problem in 2026. Do you really not understand the difference between causality and correlation? I mean, most of your comments seem well thought out, so it’s hard to understand why you keep throwing out an anomalous data point.
He doesn’t
“Correlation is not causation” is the most famous saying about causation, popularized in statistics and science to warn that a statistical relationship between two things does not prove one causes the other.
I don’t think he refused except maybe in one case. He took Singer off the market. He possibly took Burke off the market. Somebody would surely have made an offer for this quality of a LH relief pitcher. No pitching help at Louisville and things could get really ugly if he didn’t pull them off the table. We dont know what happened in the Suarez case but no takers after he was put on waivers gives us a good indication that there were no offers. We know there was at least 2 offers on Stephenson which Krall declined. Burke, Singer, and Stephenson will now leave as free agents without any return. If you want any of these guys back, you are going to have to OUTBID 3-5 other teams. And probably multi year contracts. Not the Reds strong suit.
Trading just one guy (Lowe) at the trade deadline makes absolutely no sense. If you are 4 games out of the WC and believe you can make a run, then you pick up a couple rentals like Luis Arreaz. Would cost you 3 mid level prospects and we know how important those guys are. Sarcasm. If you are 4 games out of the WC and see your situation as dim, like most fans, then you trade to the max and pick up a cache of 2028-2029 prospects. No, we trade one of our best offensive players for a career minor leaguer. Think Wil Benson or Ivan Johnson. Brito will join Krall’s potent list of 2027 bats like Hayes, McLain, Arroyo, Dunn, etc. You absolutely can’t be serious if you think any of these guys are going to be anywhere near an 800 OPS. Think they all are below 650 …..below average. We want less of these guys and not more.
Did you think the Reds were going to get a future 800 OPS guy for Singer, or Lowe? Tyler might have got you a team’s #10 prospect.
The top of the Reds organization reminds me in many ways of Tommy, the title character of The Who’s 1969 rock opera.
They are blind to the performance of their team on the field. They are deaf to the loud frustration and disgust of their fans, and they are hopeless at communicating with them.
Unfortunately, the similarity ends because, sadly, there isn’t a single baseball wizard among the Reds’ top echelon.
“But will any of that be useful to the Reds, who tend to wait around and wait around to try and pick up free agent scraps halfway through the offseason in a normal year.”
This is largely a byproduct of the CBA. Every offseason, the best players tend to go first and to the largest-market teams. Players want to play for large-market teams because they recognize that they have an advantage in building stronger rosters. I don’t think Krall and company have done a good job, but this statement belies facts. The fact is, the Reds went after Kyle Schwarber very early last offseason–Schwarber preferred the large-market Phillies. As the Reds came out of their last rebuild after 2023, they had spent the third most of any franchise by January. Our Front Office/Ownership is bad, but the structure of the current CBA disadvantages teams like the Reds. Both need to be fixed.
“Since the start of 2021 nine times have had a worse record than Cincinnati has.”
“times” should be “teams”
Sigh. One of these days I’ll publish something without a typo or an error.
Fixed it.
There was an absolutely no hope for this s organization.
*are
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/2026.shtml I like to look at numbers.
The Reds have an 86 ERA+ (100 is average) pitching number. I’d guess that is the among the lowest ERA+ by Reds pitchers this century.
The Reds have a 94 OPS+ (100 is average) batting (et al) number.
It seems to me that those responsible for 86 ERA+ are more responsible for Reds losing than those with 94 OPS+ number.
The May June relief pitching debacle (daily round trip bus trips fromLouisville) probably explains a portion of the pitching. The batting is more easily explained via McLain, Hayes, Johnson, Friedl, Benson, Dunn, Arroyo, Marte, etc. I have a little more confidence in a pitching bounce back.
Trevino skews those numbers..maybe just a little
Among 14 pitchers on the active roster (now), FIVE have an ERA+ 100 or better.
Among 14 position players on the active roster, seven have an OPS+ 100 or better.
But of the batting 7 ERA+ guys, it is conceivable that 3-4 of the 7 will not be with us in 2027. Stephenson, Suarez, Bleday, and Myers. And yet how many of the 7ERA- guys will Krall choose to keep around? I can count about 5 possibilities. Trevino, Banfield, Jorge, Hayes, and McLain. That is part of the problem. Too many minus guys and not enough + guys. Other than the backup C, I would think your minus guys would be limited to no more than 2 others and probably just one other. And our plus guys, especially in the OF are marginal. Surely Krall can make a similar analysis and the conclusion is quite obvious.
Stupid, but not surprising. The Reds have no interest in winning baseball games. It’s just about making as much money as they can. Krull should have been canned long before now. I like Francona as a person, and he has been a great manager, but when you have limited chess pieces to play with this is what you get. The farm system is not good, according to the experts, so the only way to improve this team for next year is to spend money and we know that is not going to happen!!!
I would really just like to know the evaluation process occurring here. When i asked Who evaluates Nick Krall, above, it wasn’t a rhetorical question.
This is a Krall-designed organization at this point, right? It’s his baby, whether he has retained things from prior leadership, implemented his ideas, etc. or not.
Further, not to be overlooked, he has had influence in this organization for much longer than his time as GM (2018) and POBO (2020).
“He joined the Reds in 2003 as an advance scout. He became assistant director of baseball operations in 2008, and was promoted to senior director of baseball operations in 2014 and to assistant general manager in 2015. Krall was promoted to general manager on May 10, 2018. On October 19, 2020, Krall was named head of baseball operations for the Reds following the departure of Dick Williams.”
So Nick Krall has been heavily involved in leadership since 2008. That’s eighteen (18) years.
This isn’t a bash party. I will give Krall credit for things done well such as certain drafts, the recent international program (pretty darn good), a fair degree of success on the field, etc.
However, the club is now facing a very broad failure, one that reaches across the organization, from the minors (rated bottom third) to the front office (also rated bottom third) to the W/L record (again, bottom third), how does Nick Krall gain an honest appraisal of Nick Krall? Is this from Phil, his boss? What does the Reds upper leadership think? I mean, part of this question is due to Nick Krall announcing Nick Krall is returning. It’s weird. But there is a fan need to know how these decisions were made (at least one fan lol). That seems especially important given the regression this club has witnessed in 2026.
Sorry, source above.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Krall
Since 2008, the Reds have won two division titles and made the playoffs five times. Not sure what Krall had to do with that (per se) but he had some role.
Yep. Again, there is plenty of criticism to go around for this year’s failures and plenty of credit for the club’s successes. But i am very concerned with a trifecta of sorts. The minor league pitching has had what I’d call a catastrophic collapse. The minor league hitting is evaluated near the bottom. The strength of both is in the low minors and is pretty good (I’ve heard it called sneaky good) but it will need a year or more to know how good it is. The players in the upper minors and MLs, however, who were determined to be assets foundered way too much. The impact at GABP is significant. So my question here is, What frequency are we on here? I don’t understand how a decision was announced let alone made to bring the entire leadership back at this time. It’s possible this is another issue with Krall’s PR shortcomings. It’s also possible, I suppose, the Reds made these decisions without any real evaluation. Doesn’t it seem premature to announce this, which amounts to a validation of leadership, on Sept 13th of a season in which it can be said there were one or more serious collapses?
Complete joke of an organization . What
level of incompetence does it take to bring this group of clowns back for another year ?
Sell the team !!!!!!
I would argue MOVE the team.
I would argue to FIX the league.
What was the definition of insanity again…?
Not the famous misquote that everyone likes to say that it is.
Yep, that (mis)quote has grown a life of its own.
BK 09/14/2026
Yep, that (mis)quote has grown a life of its own.
As Abraham Lincoln famously said once,” Half the things you read on the Internet are not true”
Or maybe I just made that up. 🙂
@ David, LOL!!!
CI3J 09/14/2026
What was the definition of insanity again…?
Posting comments and ideas on the internet and expecting them to have a real impact in the real world. Without discounting whether the commenter is intelligent or silly, what happens on the Internet is largely, in terms of nominally anonymous people, not having an impact in meat space.
We can all comment and type until our fingers fall off, but Phil Castellini is not listening, or reading, or caring. And neither are the rest of the ownership group.
But I like to vent and put up comments, too. And maybe, I am just insane. 🙂
Watch it!
Good stuff David.
I enjoy your posts and opinions.
Statistically speaking, there is a difference between causation and association.
An association means two variables share a pattern but arent necessarily connected. Ice cream sales and shark attacks share an association but eating more ice cream doesnt cause shark attacks.
Cause and effect establishes that changing one variable directly makes the other happen. Playing Hayes doesn’t cause the Reds to win. Its likely a marker for a game many times the Reds were very likely to win prior to his entrance in the game or a an association with a short sample size of elite pitching in April in which he played every day leading to a 20-9 record
By my very cursory count, the Reds are ~ 15-0 when Hayes doesnt start but then comes in the game in the late innings when the Reds have the lead and he plays 3rb for an inning or 2. Francona heavily leaned on Hayes in late innings as a high leverage defensive position player….The Reds already had a high likelihood to win so Francona “plays” Hayes late in games with only 3 or 4 or 5 more outs needed for a Reds win.
This is more an example of selection bias. Red Auerbach’s use of a cigar was highly correlated with a Celtics win. But, the cigar didnt cause the win, the cigar was a marker of THE win.
Hayes is selectively used in games with a high W probability at the end if he didnt start. . Similarly, if Hayes didnt start a game and the Reds got behind early and needed a big comeback with power and runs, Hayes would not play in that game and stay on the bench. SO if Hayes didnt start a game but the REds were ahead late, he always played and drives up his “winning” games he played. Similarly, If he didnt start a game and the Reds had no chance, that will drive the losses that he didnt play in.
Throw in a bad baseball team across the board when he was on the IL, thus driving up the losses in which he didnt play in. after a 20-9 start built on good starting pitching and bullpen pitching with tight low scoring games I think there is an alternative view out there to explain an association, but not a cause and effect.
Well said.
One alternate view is to ask what Hayes or any individual player (switch the name to McLain, for instance) has done to help the team. This still doesn’t create a cause and effect, but it presents information, both plus and minus, that helps the discussion. Fortunately for those who are fiendish about numbers, baseball has seven zillion measures. Those of you who are well versed in WAR (and its various forms) can and do use it almost hourly. Someone like me, on the other hand, can try to see the best in all of our players as well as their shortcomings. Still not cause and effect. Just subjective observations. That doesn’t mean without validity. A great defensive play by McLain has value for the team and, more importantly, the fans. A failed at bat by McLain, less value. The degree of influence on team success and failure shall be debated for all eternity. But influence is very rarely a cause in the way it is usually considered.
Nah. The numbers come from Baseball Reference.
BR tracks games where he played (usually started) and the Reds record in those games. 47 W and 36 L in those games.
Reds are 70 W and 79 L overall. Subtract 47 W and 36 L from that record and you get 23 W and 43 L. That is the Reds record when he doesn’t play.
He is NOT the reason the Reds are not very good. Reds pitchers ARE the reason.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=hayeske01&t=b&year=2026 BR game logs count for you.
How do you explain the Reds poor W-L (23 W vs 43 L) in games where he DOESN’T play? You might think the Reds would do better when he doesn’t play. But they don’t.
Reds below average pitchers (86 ERA+ as a team) are a primary reason why the Reds lose.
To make your argument more sound (something more than stating Hayes is NOT the problem, pitching is) you have to demonstrate what Hayes has done, besides simply be on the field, to contribute to the wins you present as an example of his value, and you have not really done that.
Above, you cite the club’s 86 ERA+ and 94 OPS+. Both are below average. In fact, the Reds are the 5th worst team in MLB. Further, Hayes has an OPS+ of just 23, seventy-seven points below average. He is the lowest rated hitter of those on the club receiving any type of regular playing ie, ie more than 36 plate appearances. He is thus the weakest hitter in the 5th lowest OPS+ rated offense. It is illogical to conclude his lack of offense contributes in a significant way to winning. It’s much more likely the opposite. And, if you want a semi comparable stat to wins, look at his RBIs. He has 8 in 224 times coming up to bat, and 5 of those 8 RBIs were him driving in himself with a HR.
Is K’Bryan Hayes THE problem? No. Not by any means. Is he PART of the hitting problem. Yes, definitely. Is the Reds pitching a problem. Yes, definitely. Is it the only reason the Reds have lost so many games? No. There is a long line behind them. It’s just obstinance to argue otherwise.
I’m going to copy and paste your post OS.
Pretty easy for most to see correlation and causation.
Why oh why don’t the Reds have a single masher who can come off the bench to pinch hit?
Nick Krall takes the blame, as a man in his position should do. However, anyone with a half an ounce of sense can see that the players failed, not Nick Krall. Just a few examples:
1. Many peoples’ anointed ACE, was a cataclysmic failure. Not Krall’s fault.
2. Suarez was an applauded signing by many on RLN, but he was a cataclysmic failure when it mattered. His numbers will only look acceptable because of what he has done once it didn’t matter.
3. I didn’t read many predictions that Andrew Abbott was going to take several giant steps backward. How is Krall responsible for that?
4. Where were all the predictions that after two decent years Brady Singer was going to ride the cataclysmic failure wagon?
5. Who coming out of spring training predicted Matt McLain would be a failure this year?
6. Who was placing the bets on the line that Hayes would be struggling to hit .150.
7. Where were all the predictions that TJ Friedl would go belly up, or that Tyler Stephenson would finally show up after the season was toast?
This is just a short list and Nick Krall was not, in actuality, responsible for or in control of any of it.
Then there is the issue of HR. The big hue and cry early was that Krall didn’t add enough power. But guess which team has ranked in the top five much of the year in HR? I doubt any of the complainers had the Cincinnati Reds on their bingo cards for top five in HR. Aside from the fact that complainers always complain, it is also true that they never have to accept any real responsibility for any of the predictions they make. Not a single person who called a particular pitcher the staff ACE has to take responsibility for that monumental failure of his being under the knife again, nor do they have to figure out how to compete while having a “team friendly” $63,000,000 and change albatross hanging around their collective necks. They can just go on complaining as if nothing happened.
Maybe a lockout will bring some sanity to baseball, but I doubt it. By 2028 I might not even care. 1994 strike took a lot of the wind out of my baseball sails; 2027 just might sink the boat. Maybe banana ball is ripe for a promotion!
You should probably just cut bait and fold up those sails now.
100 GM’s out of 100 would sign Greene to what he got.
Common baseball knowledge has eluded you in this case.
Theres winning baseball and theres losing baseball. Nick Krall is responsible for the roster and it has been historically bad. Not even slightly ok, not barely below average, they have been abysmal. It does not matter what my opinion or your opinion is on predictions for each individual player. It doesnt. The fact is the roster he put together has been horrible. He is responsible for that. Bottom 5 farm system. Trades have been bad. Free agent signings have been bad. He wanted to build on contact hitting, pitching and defense. Failed. All 3 have been terrible. He wanted to build from within… failed. The comments defending him are so tone deaf its actually amusing. He has 3 star players making bext to nothing and all he had to do was build something around them. Failed. Theres absolutely nothing he has done with any degree of success.
So what is his fault my friend? Ill hang up and listen.
It remains 90-95% the ownership. They’ve been 2+ players short for several seasons in a row. It was 3+ before that. They barely have an outfield, more than 1/2 an infield, catching is comparatively fine, and pitching is what it is. 2 big contracts gets them into a wildcard spot rather than squeaking in like last season.
Where will they get 2 big contracts?
SP has been awful this year outside of Burns.
True, but until this season the pitching had been trending in the correct direction, and where they had gotten the most for the least cost. Cannot say the same for the position player half of the roster.
Then unless Krall manages to do miracles with the roster, the team may have one of its lowest attendance numbers ever next year. The Reds are losing games by historic margins this month and ownership thinks everything is fine with the status quo…I will go on the road to a couple series next year. But if little changes, why should we support this dumpster fire of an organization?
Simply, I think this is a smart move. . . I know, don’t lose your lunch yet?!
I think that MLB KNOWS that there will be no baseball next year and if you fire a staff and hire another staff, you’ll end up paying both with no income. If/when baseball resumes I think you will see some changes. Will they be good ones, if Bob and Phil are making the decisions? . . . doubtful
I’ll be stunned if there is NO baseball in 2027. Delayed baseball, maybe. But none at all, doubtful.
Some people argue just to argue. It’s ruined many a topic on many a message board.
Sometimes articles on this site aren’t all that bad. No more excuses:
https://blogredmachine.com/brewers-rays-expose-reds-tired-small-market-excuse-nick-krall-coming-back?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Fansided_Newsletter_FS_Daily%20%7C%20Fansided%20Daily%202026-09-14&ue=c3a8b03aa4675c74ec4c35e25be58c93e3c61b5ef7e6fc8f70a8923b59647687&sendid=47470883
Reds paid $15 M for DH/3B who provides virtually 0 WAR and Reds are 47% W-L in games when he plays AND games when he doesn’t.
And they’re paying $7M for another 3rd baseman batting .148 with 8 RBIs. Oh, and they’re paying yet another $15M for ANOTHER 3rd baseman who hasn’t been on the team since early last year.
Did Krall have anything to do with this mess? Yes, actually he’s the architect.
Suarez was signed to be primarily DH.
The other 3B won a Gold Glove, hit almost 100 points higher, and helped the Reds make the playoffs in 2025 for first time in 5 years.
Reds win 47% of the games when Suarez plays (any position). Reds win 56% of the games when other 3B plays.
“Correlation is not causation”, popularized in statistics and science to warn that a statistical relationship between two things does not prove one causes the other.
Reds are 54-61 when Suarez plays. 16-18 when he doesn’t. Both 47% W-L. Same.
Reds are 58-65 when McLain plays. 12-14 when he doesn’t. 47% or 46% W-L. About same.
Reds are 40-48 when Friedl plays. 30-31 when he doesn’t. 45% or 49% W-L. Better when he doesn’t.
Reds are 47-36 when Hayes plays. 23-43 when he doesn’t. 56% or 35%. Better when he does.
Similar to +/- numbers in basketball.
Just scrolling through this one post, this is probably the fifth time you’ve tried to convince everyone that the Reds actually need more KBHs. If true, then the Reds could trade him for a frontline pitcher or a reliable OF bat … or heck, both! Call me a skeptic, but I’m pretty sure every GM in baseball would pass on a .148 hitter and his 8 RBIs, despite that 56% win guarantee.
He likes to cherry pick useless stats like above and pretend it is the gospel on the worth of an individual player. I wish RLN had an ignore button because I would smash it in a heartbeat for his posts.
Nope. Just showing you how many Reds are having bad seasons.
“Correlation is not causation”, popularized in statistics and science to warn that a statistical relationship between two things does not prove one causes the other.
OT with those stats I will be guessing that 18 teams in MLB will be offering the Reds a fortune for a Hayes during the off season.
That’s nonsense. Why would they want to win 56% of their games?
Borrowed from OS above:
Hayes is selectively used in games with a high W probability at the end if he didnt start. . Similarly, if Hayes didnt start a game and the Reds got behind early and needed a big comeback with power and runs, Hayes would not play in that game and stay on the bench. SO if Hayes didnt start a game but the REds were ahead late, he always played and drives up his “winning” games he played. Similarly, If he didnt start a game and the Reds had no chance, that will drive the losses that he didnt play in.
“Correlation is not causation”, popularized in statistics and science to warn that a statistical relationship between two things does not prove one causes the other.
William how can anyone with any kind of baseball knowledge can suggest that this front office based on its overall resume deserves to be retained by any ownership that has any serious commitment to build a winning organization.Krall and Meador has been a part of multiple failed rebuilding cycles that has only produced three winning seasons,two postseason appearances,never finishing higher than 3rd place in the NLCentral Division since 2012.They haven’t won a NL Central Division Title since 2012,the Reds are the only MLB franchise that has not won a postseason series in this millennium with last one was in 1995 when Bill Clinton was in the White House and they have a current postseason losing streak of eight straight games.The immediate future is in question because the Reds don’t have enough frontline talent in their farm system based on the updated rankings by MLB Pipeline,Baseball America,Bleacher Report,Fangraphs,Keith Law,and Baseball Prospectus that have them anywhere from 20th to 25th out of 30 teams that put them fifth in the NL Central well behind the Brewers#1,Cardinals#4,Pirates#13,and Cubs#18 if you use the composite numbers it suggests that despite of drafting high in each round,receiving competitive balance AorB picks at the end of the early rounds,and international signings they should have better results.The major problems have been the unwillingness to make the proper adjustments to the use of their scouting department that is severely undermanned,modern day analytical department isn’t up to par with their competitors in MLB.Usually in the four major professional sports Leagues you don’t get job security unless the franchise has consistent long term sustained success.
Don’t really follow the Reds like I used to. Follow the results and primarily watch other teams now.
Read that they are bringing everyone back and notice the Reds are near the bottom in run differential in MLB.
Seems about right.
I get the resources issue and probably no baseball next season, but, there are other organizations that actually run like an organization.
Oh well, I still remember the 1990 World Series. Eric the Red
I wonder if Nick Krall thinks by making this announcement he is reassuring fans who were worrying he would be let go?
“Relax everyone. Take a deep breath. I will be returning next year.”
Buster Olney called keeping Krall a surprise. He should answer for Candelario Hayes Lux additions and returns for Castillo Gray etc. Unfortunately he’s only doing the bidding of ownership and Phil C has publicly said he doesn’t care about the fans. Bob SELL the team! Reds fans deserve better!