Kiley McDaniel of ESPN has updated his MLB farm system rankings over at ESPN and he has the Cincinnati Reds sitting at #21 on the list. And let’s make no mistake about it – that’s not a good spot to be ranked. But it’s also higher than anyone else has been ranking them in the last month or so and it’s a better look than “terrible” or whatever word that has been used to describe how things sit currently among many, many people.
In the last year the Cincinnati farm system has really fallen off of a cliff. There are a lot of reasons for that. But the big part is that a year ago today the farm system still could claim Chase Burns, Sal Stewart, Rhett Lowder, Edwin Arroyo, and Chase Petty as “prospects” and today they can claim none of them as they’ve all spent too much time in Major League Baseball to remain Rookie of the Year eligible for next season (which is what makes someone a prospect, by definition).
The other part of that, though to a lesser extent, is that many of the prospects that do remain in the farm system either haven’t progressed or have taken steps backwards. And the guys who did take some steps forward did so at the lowest level of the minor leagues and it’s just not something that’s done enough to really move the needle. In the most recent Top 100 prospect list by McDaniel, the Reds only had one Top 100 prospect – catcher Alfredo Duno. The #16 prospect in baseball returned from the injured list after missing nearly a month on Tuesday night and went 3-4 with two doubles for Double-A Chattanooga. He’s one of the few prospects in the organization that’s looked real good this season.
Depending on exactly how you want to look at things, you may feel that some places are underrating the farm system for Cincinnati. But if you look at things in an opposite way then McDaniel might be the one overrating them. The key to where you sit may lie in the final sentence of his writeup on the organization’s system where he notes: “Hector Rodriguez is in the big leagues, but many of the best players in the system are at the lower levels.”
And he’s right about that. You’ve got Hector Rodriguez in the big leagues and Alfredo Duno in Double-A. Center fielder Carlos Jorge is also in Triple-A. No other player in their Top 10 according to my rankings at RedsMinorLeagues.com is in Double-A or Triple-A. The three guys ranked 11th through 13 are Jose Franco, who was injured a month ago and hasn’t pitched since, Cam Collier, who has a .289 on-base percentage and a .370 slugging percentage as a first baseman, and Leo Balcazar, a shortstop/third baseman who has been in Triple-A for a few weeks now and has a .684 OPS on the season between Chattanooga and Louisville.
When it comes to pitching, things are bleak. There’s one starting pitcher in the Top 10 and he’s thrown less than 40 innings in his career and projects as a middle to back end of the rotation starter. The other five pitchers in the Top 25 all have real questions about whether they can remain starting pitchers at all.
If you are someone who is looking at pure upside, there are some things to like in the lower levels. Recent draft picks Justin Lebron, Steele Hall, and Tyson Lewis have tools that will match up with just about anyone. Alfredo Duno is established as one of the best prospect in baseball thanks to his tools and his performance, and unlike the others he’s actually close to the big leagues. There’s good depth in the lowest levels of the farm system. But in Double-A and Triple-A the depth is laughably shallow. So if you weigh the upper levels more than the lower levels (and you probably should given the burn out rate of guys at said levels), then you probably have about as low of a feeling of the farm system as you’ve had in a long time.
To answer your question, let’s hope so. Still 4th in the division. You know, out of 5. While we sit in last place. Again.
How in the world do the Brewers and Dodgers have the top farms??
Because they know when to to trade and not falling in love With there player and treat it like a business.
They don’t tie themselves down with horrible contract . IE EP with a player option .
They draft and developed well they have a plan and systems in place they don’t deviate from it .
Unlike the reds this yrs trade line is the perfect example.
100% correct and yes the deadline and then putting Suarez and Friedl on waivers just points to how incompetent the Reds front office truly has become.Nothing fixes this mess unless those who created the mess are let go.Money can’t fix bad decision making.
Hoping Carter Graham keeps producing and moves up quickly. He really lit up this year. He and Duno should be in Louisville at some point next year, and then … The SP situation is really tough. Need a FA signing if there is a 2027 season.
For an organization that put so much emphasis on pitching, the quality of pitching in the organization is laughable.
I am impressed with some of the younger players noted above by Doug. I think that will part of the Reds infield in 2-3 years.
As some poster noted a few weeks back, the Tampa Bay Rays spend more on scouting than 90 percent of the other teams. Maybe the Reds scouting needs an overhaul
We have some interesting arms in A ball, but are woefully thin in AA and AAA.
Ryjeteri Merite and Edgar Colon have front of rotation potential.
Kyle McCoy has mid to back end rotation potential, same with Aaron Watson.
Stharlin Torres is more of a back end starter prototype, very Brady Singer-esque
Then we have Acuna, Aguiar, and Franco which are back end starter ceilings, possible AAAA type swing starters who are all in AAA now.
I would have taken Cameron Flukey over Justin Lebron, even after seeing Lebron have a good start. College pitching is strong at the top of the 2027 draft, lets hope we can get a top 5-6 pick.
Na this team needs more SS .
I haven’t followed,, have they put this lebron kid at any other position or has he been primarily at SS.?
You make to much sense .
Lebron is at SS, and that is where he should be imo. If we trade Elly before the end of 2029, then Lebron will be likely be our next starting SS, unless it is next year in which case Edwin Arroyo would get a shot until Lebron is ready.
Some of those names sound like characters in Game of Thrones?
Thought it was interesting they had the Reds a little higher at 21 than the other ranking previously that came out.
I think the Reds are going to look back and realize they made a mistake not selling a fair amount at the deadline though.
They could have received 7-8 prospects trading Singer, Stephenson, Burke, Johnson, perhaps Suarez, maybe even Bleday, maybe a few others. It would have made the farm system at least appear better, and then have more trade pieces as well if they wanted to make trades in the next year or so for major league talent. I think it’s gonna be quite a miss how they handled the deadline. Also, could have shed some payroll.
With those moves, they’d have been maybe 3-4 games worse by now.
I can appreciate they wanted to make one last grasp at this group coming together, but I think that hope was mostly in vain, and lacked wisdom, not realistic for this season.
It wouldn’t have to have been seen as a rebuild, but more of a reset.
They just don’t have a clear direction right now which the fans see. A down year fans are mostly ok with, but no real direction, the injuries, harder to get excited about the future.
Let’s hope Rodriguez develops and perhaps even Arroyo becomes a more confident player and that’d give a little more hope moving forward.
Stephenson and Singer had some value, but likely not as much as most think. The other guys I’m not sure we get guys back who make our top 30.
I agree they didn’t have as much value as we think, but still just getting some different names even in the lower minors I think would help the perception of the Reds minors.
No knock on those 2 overall, but also makes me think the Reds spending 30 million or so to resign Singer, Stephenson makes little sense for the Reds. They are players that can help a team that already has playoff talent, but not to get you over the top if you’re average to below average talent wise in my opinion.
Excellent points and the lack of a clear direction is the biggest one.If they learn anything I hope they get the fact you just don’t keep riding the same horses until they decline or come up lame.Goes for pitchers,hitters,coaches front office etc.You must trade players at peak value if your only course to compete is from within.You cant try to squeeze every pitch and at bat out of players forever.You must trade them.Look at this team now today and ask where are my trade chips and then look back last year and the year before.The Reds go into every year hoping and thats not a plan.The trade deadline was just awful and the media is still hammering Krall.Geno and Friedl being put on waivers?Krall gets hammered again and should be.I hope the farm system improves and maybe it isn’t as bad as some believe it is.
We have a direction, it just isn’t going to show up for a few year. They have been prioritizing speed and power combos the last couple years. As those guys matriculate up the system, I think 2027 needs to lean in hard to college pitching.
“We have a direction, it just isn’t going to show up for a few years.” That sounds like a statement from the front office in a plea for job security. The great youth we expected three years ago has stalled or vanished. I trust people who analyze all farm systems (not just this one), who say the Reds’ system is below average. It isn’t all because of call-ups. If that were the case, there would be a lot of excitement in this fanbase. I’d like to believe there’s an upward direction, but will wait to see some better evidence.
The vast majority of the talent in our organization right now is in High A and below. Our organization is in a good spot for development with a protracted lockout in 2027. It will let some of that talent matriculate up the organizational ladder and hopefully we see a few quantum leaps forward by a few guys next year and can end 2027 with 4-5-6 guys as top 100 guys amongst the various lists. My current Reds top 30:
1. Alfredo Duno, C, AA
2. Justin Lebron, SS, A+
3. Steele Hall, SS, A-
4. Hector Rodriguez, OF, MLB
5. Ryjeteri Merite, LHP, A-
6. Jirvin Morillo, C, A-
7. Angel Nunez, CF, DSL
8. Tyson Lewis, 3B, A+
9. Carlos Jorge, CF, AAA
10. Aaron Watson, RHP, A-
11. Edgar Colon, RHP, A+
12. Eric Becker, 2B, A+
13. Carlos Sanchez, SS, AA
14. Liberts Aponte, SS, DSL
15. Adolfo Sanchez, OF, A-
16. Kyle McCoy, LHP, A+
17. Eli Pitts, OF, ACL
18. Carter Graham, 1B/3B/LF, AA
19. Jose Acuna, RHP, AAA
20. Jose Franco, RHP, AAA
21. Leo Balcazar, SS/2B, AAA
22. Arnaldo Lantigua, OF, A-
23. Stharlin Torres, RHP, A+
24. Cam Collier, 1B/3B, AA
25. Kien Vu, OF, AA
26. Mulivai Levu, 1B, A-
27. Julian Aguiar, RHP, AAA
28. Ty Doucette, 1B, A+
29. Angel Salio, 3B, DSL
30. Ichiro Cano, 3B, A-
Based on that assessment it will be surprising it Balcazar and Collier every get more than a cup of coffee in the majors. It’s a little surprising to see Cam fall off so badly this year. Injuries have been a consistent problem, but he seemed to keep pace despite them early on. Perhaps they are taking their toll.
Collier is just 21, we shouldn’t give up on him yet, but he definitely starts back in AA next year. Youth is only an excuse for so long.
I believe hand/ wrist injuries are one of, if not the most, unappreciated injury categories for hitters.
Look at how two years later CES (finally) appears to be back where he was at the end of the 2023 MLB season, ahead of his wrist situation in early 2024.
Those of a certain age recall that Austin Kearns never got it all back following a hand injury.
Maybe 2027 could be a recovery year for the Reds farm system as long as the prospect with good upside will be able to step forward and the technical staff develops correctly…I think there is hope in the DSL Reds group this year so a bunch of kids could be playing in the States side next year
How the farm system is rated doesn’t matter.
What matters is that it’s the farm system of a last-place team.
It’s a farm system that, since 2013, has failed to produce enough major-league-ready talent to enable the Reds to finish any higher than third.
It’s lucky to be rated 21st. Based on where the Reds are in the standings — and the lack of much in the pipeline to help next year’s club — something near 30th would not be inappropriate.
Rob I think in recent years that your assesment is not totally spot on. The issue is that no team can win with only home grown talent and the reds complete failure (broadly speaking) on the free agent front is the bigger issue.
Grabbing the 2025 roster as an example we have home grown talent with McLain (for better or worse), EDLC, Friedl (fell off a cliff this year but a good career with reds), Stephenson (above average catcher) plus three starters and Lowder (on IL last year). The foundation was there and add in a sprinkling of good trades like Singer, Steer. Issue is outside of Pagan who were the free agents that were any kind of real spend?
In summary you can’t depend on homegrown talent alone. You have to make smart trades (iffy at best there) and not shop totally in the bargain bin at Dollar Tree for free agents or you will never be any good.
p.s. Obviously this is just my opinion but out of the three areas for talent, development from with in has been the best of the three.
If that is the case, then the Reds will never be good again until baseball levels the playing field. It takes money to acquire the top talent, and the Reds don’t have money.
I agree, Michael, you cannot depend on homegrown talent alone. But I contend that for any championship-caliber team, the core of that team has to come from the farm system — especially true for a small-market franchise like the Reds.
Year after year, the Reds’ system fails to produce that core. Thus, the franchise is forever plugging holes with trades, second- and third-tier free agents, castoffs and reclamation projects.
Unfortunately,the way it looks, we can likely expect more of the same down the road.
Rob and Michael are both right. It takes all of the above: draft, develop, smart trades that don’t have to be blockbusters, and wise spending. The Reds have the 20th highest payroll in mlb and they’ve badly mismanaged it. More money is not the answer. Do we need to keep bringing up Milwaukee, Cleveland, Tampa and now the White Sox?
100% correct and those managing it now need to go.
Doug, can you explain why you think the Red’s minor league system is so poor?
Bad drafting?
Poor coaching?
It’s not like the players the Reds have given up on have flourished…Tramell, Siri for just a few names
I’m sure someone has said this before, but it’s important to understand that almost every position player who gets drafted is a SS, C, or CF. You’ll see a 3B here and there but hardly ever any other position until way later in the draft.
Pete Alonso was a SS in high school, I believe.
So yeah. The Reds are gonna keep drafting shortstops. They’ll mostly end up somewhere else, but that’s how it goes.
Follow up on my previous comment. The Draft/sign side of things definitely could be better.
My problems with the current state of the Reds minor league system is that they haven’t been able to identify,draft,develop and maintain quality Major League caliber outfielders that have plus WAR especially when they get to the upper levels of their system,so many of them have struggled once they make the transition from AA to AAA to the Major Leagues,many of them lack plate discipline,pitch recognition,and bat to ball skills,it’s an all or nothing approach,and they try to convert too many middle infielder types that can’t play in the outfield.Nick Krall and Brad Meador have to understand that they play 81 home games in one of the top three to four hitters ballparks in the Major Leagues,you cannot survive if your ballclub is at or near the bottom of the league in every major offensive category that matters.The NL Central Division frontrunners Brewers have scored 148 more runs than the Reds and the Cubs137 more runs,that is a significant statement that this offense is so far away from becoming a serious contender unless there is some dramatic changes in the personnel and the organizations approach to building an offense.The pitching model that Derek Johnson was using seem to be making progress when he took over as the organization’s development guru but when the rash of injuries started to occur they didn’t have enough depth to overcome them and when he had to leave the team for personal reasons.They also has some problems finding converting pitchers into high leverage relievers because they have command issues that have led to high walk rates which can become troublesome at this level when they allow a high percentage of inherited baserunners to score.
I was on the road for the 8th inning disaster. Friedl homers for a 2 run lead.
Looks like my post was completely deleted.
I didn’t use a curse word. I DID call out the front office on Candelario, Moustakas, K’Bryan blunders and ownership for being too cheap or not caring enough to hire a competent baseball GM and getting out of the way.
I wish I had saved my post. Doug might need to explain that one. I saw it said your post is awaiting moderation. Apparently awaiting deletion was more like it. I like to stop by and check on the content Doug (and Co) produce, but getting annoying we’re not allowed to be negative against the Reds ownership or GM.
I don’t understand my post evaporating. I could see a word (or grudgingly) a line being removed, fine. The whole post? Nutz!