Chase Burns had a very un-Chase Burns like start and the Washington Nationals had a lot to do with that as they took advantage in the 6th inning to run him from the game and continue to tack on runs in what turned out to be a big inning that put them back in the lead. They never looked back in an 8-2 win that made it two in a row for them over the Cincinnati Reds in this series.
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds (56-60) | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Washington Nationals (58-61) | 8 | 10 | 0 |
| W: Beeter (5-3) L: Burns (13-2) | |||
| Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
Washington would take a lead in the bottom of the 3rd inning. Jose Tena started the inning with a single and then took CJ Abrams hit a 1-out double. Abimelec Ortiz then cashed in with a 2-run single off of Chase Burns to make it 2-0.
That’s where the score would remain until the top of the 6th inning. Sal Stewart got things started with a 1-out single. He then came around to score when Eugenio Suarez hit a long 2-run home run over the bullpen in left-center to tie the game up.
The game didn’t remain tied for very long. Chase Burns returned for the bottom of the 6th and gave up a leadoff double, an RBI single, another double before picking up a strikeout, and then he walked the next batters as he racked up 23 pitches in the inning before being removed from the game. Sam Moll came in with the Reds down a run and runners on. The lefty gave up an RBI double that plated two runs but JJ Bleday got the ball back towards the infield where Elly De La Cruz fired a laser to the plate at 100 MPH to get the third runner by 10 feet. A single followed to bring in another run to make it 6-2.
Washington would play add on in the bottom of the 8th inning against the Reds newest reliever. Ron Marinaccio pitched a perfect 7th but issued a 1-out walk in the 8th to Jorbit Vivas, who would later steal second base. He then scored on a single by Andres Chaparro that saw Hector Rodriguez throw a bullet to the plate that was easily ahead of the runner but Jose Trevino couldn’t come up with the ball clearly enough to make the tag in time. Minaccio hit the next batter before giving up another RBI single before recording the final out of the inning on a play at the plate when he threw a wild pitch.
Cincinnati was going to need a big rally in the top of the 9th to avoid a series loss. They instead went down in order and lost 8-2 as the Nationals secured the series with one game left on Sunday afternoon.
Key Moment of the Game
The bottom of the 6th inning. After the Reds tied the game up in the top half the Nationals came right out and took the lead again and this time didn’t give it up.
Notes Worth Noting
This was just the third time this season in 22 starts that Chase Burns allowed more than three earned runs. It was just the fourth time he’s allowed more than two.
Cincinnati’s offense managed just five hits in the game. One of those came from Hector Rodriguez, who came off of the bench as a pinch hitter and only had one at-bat.
Up Next for the Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals
Sunday August 9th, 12:15pm ET
Brady Singer (5-10, 4.67 ERA) vs TBA
I will start, this team stinks.
I might quibble how long Burns should have gone in the 6th inning, if at all.
I am not qualified to know, but the vibe from WLW 700 announcers in the 6th inning was pretty negative after the Nationals successfully challenged the strikeout pitch into a ball and a walk.
CB should have been done after 6, he was tired and his pitch count was getting up there. The night before, Garcia was tired and should have been done.
You know what is strange is that this offense has not gotten hot all year and no matter how bad you are almost every major league offense goes on a week or two red hot streak. The Reds have not and that speaks to how bad they are.
https://www.mlb.com/stats/team 5th in MLB in Most HR category. Much lower in other categories. The NYY have similar numbers. Lots of HR but too many K and not enough BB.
Correct but they never put together a rally without a home run.
True, Mark. It shows the limitations of relying entirely on homers. On the other hand, no team can or should assume that they will score nine runs. This game was failure of the offense, certainly, but also a failure of run prevention.
Yes they have. MLB league average OPS is .720.
4/11-4/31 .235/.330/.445/.775
5/14-5/31 .262/.336/.444/.779
7/01-7/19 .255/.321/.474/.794
The only way I’d take Burns out there is if you’re worried about his arm or pitch count. Otherwise, I thought a great opportunity to see if he could grit his way out of a tough situation when he wasn’t pitching great. Would have built his confidence, maybe he learns a little bit about himself. Even if he lets up a hit and 5 runs there, you showed your Ace you are willing to let him go that extra mile.
Reds in the offseason need to bring in a consultant, a retired GM who had success in the league, some people like that, and give the ownership a honest assessment of their franchise, what they’re doing right, wrong, what direction they’re most likely heading, why they’re stagnant in mediocrity for about 6 -7 years now. Give them new ideas, challenge their thinking and philosophies.
Consultant? Didn’t they already do that? His name is Terry Francona. They decided on this situational hitting philosophy. It doesn’t work despite what some believe and most teams are doing the opposite because they know hitting the ball in the air and ideally pulling the ball is the most productive way to counter this current pitching environment.
I think (but I could be wrong), that the Reds’ tally in HR does indicate that they are putting the ball “in the air”.
They strike out too much, and are not making consistent contact, whether you hit a line drive, a ball the opposite way, or into the power alleys.
The Brewers hit a lot fewer home runs, yet they score more runs. Why is that? What is there hitting philosophy?
Eric Thiessen, and here’s an interview with him on Youtube. Might be worth a listen.
Thank you Richard.For me the philosophy has messed them up at the plate more then it helped them.Pitchers are way way ahead of the hitters and maybe getting further ahead every day.Tito and his coach are behind the times.
They may have adopted the philosophy, Richard, but I see no evidence that they execute it. That may well be because few of them hit well enough to do so, but what we’re left with is solo homers and strikeouts, if you’ll forgive a bit of hyperbole.
The Brewers have the personnel to make that approach sing. The Reds don’t. Total opposite strengths and weaknesses. “Wanting to be someone else is a waste of who you are” – Cobain, allegedly.
Sometimes I wonder if short-levered hitters are the new Moneyball and in ten years MLB draftniks will be talking about wingspan like NBA ones do, except shorter is better, chasing compact swings. Helping small guys with super contact skills bulk up could be a better bet than finding big loud power hitters who can handle today’s pitching.
I don’t follow. What does situational hitting entail? What are the different philosophies? Why is situational hitting philosophy screwing up our hitters? Please explain. What is situational hitting when there rarely is a situation.
I was at the game last night…the Nats are GOOD hitters…lots of contact, line drives. Abrams hits a double on a slider down around his ankles. Someone hit a single opposite way on a fast ball on outer edge of the plate. Reds hit lazy fly balls, easy ground outs, pop ups. There were a couple of ropes hit right at the 2nd baseman. Bad luck there.
David nailed it.
Interesting interview, but what really was said. Beyond the platitues, like the goal is to score more runs than your opponent anyway you can, keep the line moving, know your strengths and be the best you can be, there were only two nuggets on approach…’control the zone’ and HRs come on pitcher mistakes.
I think the Reds can make pitchers pay for mistakes. What they can’t seem to do is ‘control the zone.’ What does that mean? I suppose it means don’t swing at balls out of the zone (or ones going out of the zone), hit the ball in the zone. To me that means pitch recognition. But also it has to mean driving the ball. Weak ground balls, easy flys, pop-ups means your not making square contact. How do you get a player to do that consistently? Seems to me, to a large extent, either you got it or don’t.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7129348/2026/03/19/washington-nationals-technology-trajekt-machine/
https://www.si.com/mlb/reds/onsi/news/cincinnati-reds-taking-advantage-of-new-state-of-the-art-pitching-machine-01jp31fstkg2
Do the Reds know how to use it?
“I don’t follow. What does situational hitting entail? What are the different philosophies? Why is situational hitting philosophy screwing up our hitters? Please explain.”
Here’s the article that explains some of this:
https://www.redlegnation.com/2026/05/15/do-you-know-the-cincinnati-reds-blueprint-for-success/
I believe this situational hitting approach is part of of the reason players like Marte and McClain have struggled so much. Look at the pitches way off the plate that are being swung at. Some of that is getting fooled by pitches that look middle middle. But some of it simply feels like attempts to execute Valaika’s approach: punch the ball the other way. Too many times this ends in Ks or weak grounders, double plays when there is a man on, etc.
It’s also not just about HRs. Hitting the ball in the air and hitting it hard because you’re swinging at pitches you can handle in the zone results in more balls in play in the outfield, more two base hits and yes, some HRs.
Hitting the ball hard and in the air, preferable pull side has been shown to be the most effective way to counter today’s pitcher. Yes, it incurs more strikeouts, but that trade off has been a net plus for hitters versus just trying to put the ball in play, as demonstrated by years of results across baseball. Some might argue that like the Milwaukee media guy. But facts are facts even if guys like Jeff Brantley say otherwise.
This is a tough concept for people to handle, especially those who’ve watched the game for decades, and seen it change to a style that while more productive for hitters in the long run, still is ugly for fans to watch as they see more Ks.
The Reds hit better and score more runs when they go oppo….and no…it’s not just poking the ball.
There scoring droughts happen when they abandon said approach. It’s pointed out in every game thread when they aren’t hitting. Sure enough, no oppo hits.
Actually @Jeremiah, if you read Francona’s comments about removing Burns, it’s perfectly logical. As for the “situational hitting” philosophy? Not anything wrong with that strategy, except an expectation that the Reds can hit. When 3-4 of your starters are hitting under .200 and a couple are barely above, it calls into question the strategy. The problem is that, unlike people’s impressions here, the Reds FB% is up over last year and is above league average. In fact, according to BBRef, it their highest FB% of the decade. The problem isn’t the strategy. It’s the hitters. Marte, Hayes, even McLain play far too much for what they’ve produced. The problem is that while they have alternatives for Marte and Hayes, McLain is harder to replace at the moment.
The philosophy of trying to hit the ball in the air is why batting averages are down to .230 for most teams. Thats ridiculous and simply not true. Just because someone believes that doesn’t make it true. The Reds hit many flyballs and we see how thats working out.
More nonsense, which does a disservice to others who might be swayed by opinions based on wishful thinking or yesterday’s ideas about playing the game “the right way.”
Here’s some informed information by those that study actual results on the field over months and years:
“Visit a local cloud and you’ll hear many things. There’s the one about the death of batting average and the constant swinging for the fences, but if you listen closely, you’ll probably hear the one about the lack of “situational hitting.” It’s a term that can be bent into many shapes, but usually ends up referring back to driving in those all important runners in scoring position. And kids these days don’t do it anymore.
“Checking back in at the local cloud, I heard a few other things about strikeouts and everyone swinging for the fences all the time. Whatever happened to a contact-based hitting approach? The neat thing about a runner at third is that a single is guaranteed to score a run. You can even make certain types of outs and those will score runs. And that runner on third will be no more knocked in by a wall ball. So why are batters trying to knock the ball to the wall and accepting a greater risk of the outcome that’s particularly disastrous in this situation, the strike out?
“A few moments ago, I asked you to hold on to the idea of a failed attempt to get a runner in from third as a lost opportunity. That phrasing makes a difference. As humans, we are loss averse. We react more strongly to the loss of something (or the threat of its loss) even more to gaining something of the exact same value—say, one run.
Driving a run in from first, or scoring on a home run, is worth exactly one run, but the fact that both are relatively rare events makes them feel much more remote. If they happen, they feel like a gift. If you’re cheering for that team, you’re happy that your team scored, but you don’t instinctively blame a batter for not hitting a home run. But leaving a runner on third…
A runner on third is a moment of tension. The team has probably done a lot of work to get that runner there and the possibility of the run has been building up for the past few minutes. Dramatic tension is the number one source of fun within both games and stories. Now, will the build-up pay off? Resolving that tension, in one direction or the other, is an emotional ride. And that sense of loss upon not getting the runner in is something real in the human psyche. A home run is wonderful, but it’s all so sudden. There’s no build-up. The run just scores, and maybe the lights flicker.
I think that as MLB tries to come to terms with the hollow feeling that fans say they feel in watching modern baseball, they need to start naming some of the forces that undergird that feeling. A great deal of modern baseball has been built on the shoulders of the field of behavioral economics. People attach—and in very predictable ways—values to events and resources that are out of congruence with what they are really worth. On the scoreboard, a run is a run is a run. But we need to see the flip side of that behavioral economics trick. You can’t solve a problem until you know what you’re up against.
But why have teams pursued a strategy which leaves so many runners at third?
“The modern approach to hitting leaves a greater proportion of runners stranded on second and third base. Those runners are only there 20% and 10% of the time, respectively. And runners in scoring position, of any configuration, happen 25.6% of the time.
The majority of plate appearances (56.2%) took place with no runners at all, and an additional 18.3% took place with a runner only at first. And there is always a batter. Skills that drive in runners from first base and the batter’s box are going to be more useful more of the time. The number of runs gained from the extra home runs over the past two decades outweighs the number of extra runs left on second and third. And by a lot.
All runners are in scoring position. If you only look at the ones at second and third and don’t consider what a strategy does to the batter and runner at first, then you miss the point entirely.”
Why not do both then? Score a run from 3rd less than 2 outs, by just making contact, while doing heavier damage in other situations?
You talked about psyche of the fans, when the build up doesn’t meet expectations. What about the psyche of pitcher? Opposing pitchers can develop confidence by stranding runners. The team in the field? Better for the noggin as well. In the same breathe it’s deflating for the players when they don’t deliver in that situation. So is “90% of the game, half-mental”? Or does mentality only apply to fans?
A decent writeup @Richard, but significantly incomplete. The question isn’t necessarily how often a player is on 2nd or 3rd. The better questions derive from conditional probabilities rather than summary. For example, what is the probability that Player A scores given that he gets a hit. Then it gets tricky because it introduces variables that aren’t captured in the aggregate. For example, how many outs are there, who is batting behind the hitter, and who behind him. The lineups matter despite the analytics consensus that they don’t. Is Player A a threat to steal? Is the pitcher prone to WP or BB? How hittable is the pitcher? And so on. Reducing baseball to an assumption that hitting HRs and trying to do so automatically increases the number of runs scored is suspect. As you stated in your response, runs are up. What you didn’t address is the distribution of those runs? Are they normally distributed, skewed etc? There are too many variables to infer each player should follow the same philosophy. Yes, baseball has changed dramatically and not always for the better. Nonetheless, it is always a fallacy to extend summary statistics into individual performances.
Justin T gets it.
Rough day at the office for Burns. Against lefty, I knew we would not score much and need Burns to put up zeros. Didnt happen. Our struggle in the nation capital continues.
Burns should have been given a chance to get out of trouble in the 6th or never started the inning. However it didn’t matter the Reds were never going to score again against the best staff in baseball, at least this weekend. Next week it will be the White Sox and Marlins turn to have the games best pitching staff. That is the way it will be the rest of the year.
I don’t anyone predicted Yankees, Reds, M’s 28th-30th in hitting
Sometimes I think Francona is making moves to try and build confidence in a player such as Moll who has struggled, to tell them I still believe in you, and even though you’re struggling, we’re going to need you in September if we’re in the playoff race, so here’s another shot.
There’s a certain level of wisdom to that, showing confidence in people when they’re struggling in a workplace, particular job etc. But also there’s a wisdom in moving them to a different part of the job, lessening their role for their own benefit and the company’s benefit when necessary as well.
Yep , bingo . Best way to lessen Moll’s role is D F A
I think more of moving him to a Brent Suter role would be the best move for now. Eating some innings, but not coming in with games on the line for awhile.
Moll was to face lefty. Nats counter with their new rightie. It worked. Not sure how often Moll is brought in with bases loaded and only 1 out. Thought you might bring in the fireman (Atone), but again, it was a lefty due up. I did notice though that it took some time for anyone in the bull pen to get ready after the double, single, double.
I am sick of watching Moll come in games & most of the time….fail. I would assume, he will not be in this bull pen next season, so DFA him now, he has done enough damage
I’m with you ! Spot on.
The departure of Lowe has definitely hamstrung the roster. I understand the difficult jobs that Krall and Meador have as they are hamstrung themselves by the owners. I personally wish that Elon Musk would buy the team. Without Lowe the Reds seem to be giving 3B to Hayes and his woeful hitting. I’m sorry but Stewart should be at 3B more often than he is at 1B which requires a competent player at 1B but there are none! The hamstrung problem also requires a backup for 2B and SS thereby giving us IJ. The hamstrung problem also requires a backup CF thereby giving us the shell of the former Friedl. One might argue that Marte and HecRod can backup CF well enough. Therefore, there is no roster room for Toglia to backup 1B which isn’t a great choice either, but viable. The only solution is to play Suarez at 3B nearly every game and let NM and HR split the time in RF and DH.
How long before Steer is back?
Your last sentence tells the story but lets be real here in that Krall traded for Hayes and his contract believing the Reds could help him with his hitting.No way he gives up on that thought.We get it that Tito make out the lineup but you mentioned all the issues he has to deal with because of the roster.He told HR the other night when he put him in center that he would take responsibility for anything bad that happened.Thats a class act on his part but how clueless and little league is the man setting the roster.How could the Reds be any worse by replacing Krall and others.
How long before Steer is back?
Again, a double reply??? Why is it happening?
With a YTD minimum of 250 PA, out of 33 2B, Brice Turang ranks 5th with a 1.45 GB/FB ratio. Matt McLain ranks 33rd (dead last) at 0.63. While just one position, this shows the commitment to hitting the ball on the ground rather than the air. No need to distinguish the success of the two.
It is not surprising that the leader in GB/FB plays for TB – a 1st place team.
The philosophy is broken. Fix it.
This is laughably wrong. You do realize you’re arguing against decades of results that say otherwise right? Here. Argue with this:
“The majority of plate appearances (56.2%) took place with no runners at all, and an additional 18.3% took place with a runner only at first. And there is always a batter. Skills that drive in runners from first base and the batter’s box are going to be more useful more of the time. The number of runs gained from the extra home runs over the past two decades outweighs the number of extra runs left on second and third. And by a lot.”
Using one person’s GB/FB ratio numbers versus another to prove a specious point is the weakest of arguments.
Not going to argue. Friedl and McLain increased their launch angles and EV’s and they are having terrible seasons. Hayes’ launch angle is up this year too.
Hitting line drives, putting the ball in play, and limiting strike outs is not only a better brand of baseball, it is statistically better. Tell you what, you can have Dave Kingman, Richie Sexon and Joey Gallo on your team. I’ll take Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn and Barry Larking on my team. I’ll beat your team in any series every single time.
Larkin. Sorry.
You should see where Friedl’s flyball/popup tendencies landed him. He won’t play again
As for Ke-Bryan Hayes. With the 3B with at least 150 PA, he ranks 12th in EV at 90.5. He ranks 38th (out of 51) in GB/FB. He has a 14.9 launch angle (LA) this year – the highest in his career. Again. A completely failed philosophy.
I agree but don’t tell Richard because he knows all when it comes to every aspect of the game. He constantly quotes Brantley and others that they have no idea what they are talking about. Doesn’t matter what his qualifications are, he’s always right.
Agree..
Its like people arent allowed to have their own opinions on here without Richard correcting them.
https://media1.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExd2Q3cHRzMnB0aDV4amZ5Nnh1eW52ZDhoaDh6emloZnBiYjJoem8zbiZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/lwYxf0qKEjnoI/giphy.gif
FABULOUS reply by Richard.
@Richard you are truly a internet bully.
There a few on here who act this way and it’s not shocking to see one come to his defense here who acts pretty much the same way. It’s totally embarrassing behavior to the average person. If they treat people like this in real life, I can’t imagine too many people enjoy their company.
Richard defended KBH for as long as he could just to stir the pot & act superior. You’re aptly named sir
Junior Caminero has an 8.9 LA – 9th worst in all 3B with at least 150 PA. He’s the type of hitter where EV helps him though (he’s 6’1″ 220 and bats in the heart of the order). He’s hitting .280 with 33 HR’s and…..wait for it….a K% of just 18.4%.
Put the ball in play, the type of player you are and you’re kind of talent will take over from there. Get rid of a bunch of guys focused on launch angle and striking out a ton to increase that and their exit velo. Get back to baseball.
Just recalling something that Greg Vaughn said in 1999. Greg hit 45 hr that year, so not exactly punch and judy hitter.
He talked about “practicing” situational hitting in the batting cage, in batting practice. He would mentally put himself into certain situations, and try to accomplish something with the bat in practice (batting cage, BP before the game). Having watched Major league Batting Practice, it seems most guys are just trying launch the ball and hit it as hard and far as possible. Great in BP, but not in the real game itself.
In a similar manner, Greg Maddox used to work in the bullpen (between games) pitching out of the stretch, as if there were men on base. Pitching out of the wind-up was routine and easy. Practicing on pitching out of the stretch put you in a game situation.
If there is one lesson to draw from all this, is that some players practice the game as it might actually be played, in stressful situations. Some guys just do the routine and check all the boxes.
21.3 launch angle (LA) for McClain. Ridiculous. Highest among any 2B with awful results.
I agree with many that our core problem is our roster, or lack of offensive talent. But my view is that has been our problem since March. Nothing in the last 3-4 months. The additions of Lowe, Myers, and Bleday were positives. But they were considered depth pieces and minor leaguers coming out of spring training. Our starters were entirely carryovers from the weak offense of 2025 – Benson, McLain, Friedl, Hayes, and Marte. 3 OFs from 2025’s team that badly needed a star CF or RF. Unsuccessful trade negotiations around Byron Buxton and Ketel Marte. But a front office that insisted that McLain, Benson, and Hayes were starters and the future of this franchise. And with Hinds, Arroyo, Dunn, and CES ready to go at Louisville if there was a hiccup. These guys are a central part of our core and calvary that our GM “really likes”. And 2 of these 8 or so guys are now treading water in other organizations, another 2 have regressed to the minors, and the remainder are still around and swatting 190. Tito and us fans are totally handcuffed by this nonsense. We need to cut the patience with nearly 2 years of failure with guys like Hayes, McLain, Benson, and the recent Friedl entry. Guys like Myers, Bleday, Marte, Dunn, Arroyo, and HRod can compete for a COUPLE of those starter spots but we need demonstrated 800+ OPS guys starting at the other 2-3 spots possibly including C. Simple. Target the 2-3 guys you need or want and figure out what starting pitchers and prospects you need to give up to make it happen. There is no other way other than winning the bidding wars for the bigger free agents and that is 3 year contracts. But maybe that is your window. The developed from within strategy has expired. It unfortunately didn’t work. We whiffed. It is total nonsense to believe that 2027 is going to be any different from 2025-2026 with the same roster of Hayes, McLain, Benson, Friedl, Dunn, etc. We need 2-3 demonstrated 800+ OPS guys (29 year old Sal Stewart’s) brought in. And don’t go backwards on C. Giving up on or trading McLain, Marte, Arroyo, Hayes, Petty, Lodolo, etc. is better than the alternative of keeping them and hoping at this point. That has not worked.
Well Hayes gets another start, what a joke, at the very least bring up Toglia and play him at first and Sal at third.
Yeah 28-23 with Hayes starting at 3B compared to 28-37 when he doesn’t.
So we should have a team full of players who can play good defense while hitting .141 with an OPS of .434? 😉
Hayes WAR of -0.5.
A replacement level player would have provided more value.
His April WRc+ was 5.
At that time he had -1 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) so his defense was winning all of those games either.
You have a lot of good posts, but your arguments for Weaver and Hayes are baffling. I thought you actually looked at numbers.
The one player on the team who really should try to retrofit himself as a dead-pull power hitter, imo, is Hayes. He doesn’t have opposite-field power, and he isn’t hitting the ball on a line that way either. Just a lot of harmless lazy flyball outs. I think it just is what it is.
Load up earlier. Swing earlier. Don’t use a two-strike approach until you have two strikes. Jose Bautista and Justin Turner should be his models.
Very good Noyes. Damage early in count, then with 2 strikes, put it in play.
A note on Gameday:
“Ke’Bryan Hayes has struggled against RHP this season, hitting .123/.177/.221 in 130 PA.”
I submit he’s not doing all that great against LH pitching either. .195/.250/.293/.543.
Well Richard an interesting read you’ve provided below.
But, it hasn’t convinced me.
First of all, the basic question: what does it mean to hit situationally.
From your article, it means;
bunting more;
going the other way;
hit and runs (i.e. contact);
less emphasis on power;
an unwillingness to accept strikeouts which follows from pulling with power.
bunting more and taking the ball the other way, which to you, has caused Marte and McLain to swing at pitches out of the zone trying to go the other way.
I admit, the communication from Francona and others, and seconded by many here, that the Reds are trying or should try to be better situational hitting. Those here cite Brewers as the model. From what i get from you assessment is that Marte, McLain, and for that matter CES and Hinds, would be better off to try and pull the ball with power, and that their failure is due to trying to execute the ‘situationtional hitting’ philosophy.
Let’s just look at McLain: His trend from 2023 (under the old regime) and now:
go/ao: .85 to .66 (more fly outs).
launch angle: 13.8 to 21.3 (an increase)
pull rate: 34.8 to 35.3 % (an increase)
oppo rate: 27.6 to 28.0 % (slight increase at expense of going up the middle)
BABIP: .385 to .246
he’s swinging slight less out of the zone (25.4 to 24.9 %), but more in the zone (57.6 to 61.1 %)
All of this suggests he’s pulling more and getting more loft (along your suggestions), while improving his swinging out of zone…he was lucky in 2023 (hitting more ground balls) and not so much in 2025/2026. I just don’t think he’s suffering from trying to ‘hit situationally ‘ (i.e. hitting ground balls the opposite way).
I would just add, that Adam Dunn (w/ Griffey and others) followed the pull HRs, SO or walk scenario and the Reds never did anything.
It just makes sense that making good contact more consistently will lead to more base runners.
Yes Suarez was added to provide some of the pull HR power to the middle of the lineup, but Bleday and Lowe were also added…with some success. What’s missing is havng runners on base when the HRs come.
I thought what the Brewers guy said (and what Lowe’s approach seemed to be) was HRs come on pitcher mistakes (hanging off speed pitches, fast balls center plate)…good pitchers don’t make many of those, so you got to be able to make contact on what they do deliver.