It shouldn’t come as much of a surprise to anyone that the Cincinnati Reds are looking to make trades as the trade deadline approaches. They are in last place with a 44-53 record. They are 16.5 games back in the National League Central and 7.0 games back of the final wild card spot. It would take an absolute miracle for the team to get into the playoffs given how far back they are, the make up of their team, and how many teams they would need to outplay. Even to finish with a .500 record they need to play .584 baseball the rest of the season.
Reporting from C. Trent Rosecrans and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic says the Reds front office is willing to move players who will be free agents following this season. They also make note that the team would be willing to trade FOR players who could help them out moving forward. That could certainly make things interesting over the next two weeks.
The trade deadline this year is 6:00pm ET on August 3rd.
Here are the players on the roster who are free agents following the 2026 season:
- Brady Singer
- Caleb Ferguson
- Brock Burke
- Tyler Stephenson
- Nathaniel Lowe
Tejay Antone is listed as a free agent after the season by Cot’s Contracts. I’m not sure that is correct. The team has two players with an option for 2027. Eugenio Suarez has a mutual option for $16,000,000. Emilio Pagan has a player option for $10,000,000.
None of the players that could be moved in this group are going to be “key” acquisitions for a team looking to take that next step. Brady Singer is a 4th or 5th starter for a playoff team. The three relievers are middle relief types for a playoff team. Nathaniel Lowe is a platoon bat. Eugenio Suarez has power but he’s a #6 or #7 hitter on a playoff team because while he has power he’s not bringing any average or on-base percentage to the table. Tyler Stephenson is having the worst offensive season of his career. And then there’s Tejay Antone. If he’s a free agent he could possibly bring back a little more than Ferguson or Burke as his numbers are better, but all three have very good numbers this season.
There’s the thought that you should get something while you can. And that can and does make sense when there’s very little chance that the team is going to do enough winning to become competitive (for a playoff spot at least). But even if the team trades all of these guys away they aren’t likely going to be getting back top prospects in return. They could get guys who have some upside who are four or five years away in a similar manner to how they acquired Hector Rodriguez – a raw 18-year-old at the time who had barely even played in the US. But if they acquire anyone who is close to the big leagues the player is probably going to be more of a useful player but one who probably doesn’t move the needle of the team much in the future, either. You need those types of guys in the organization and plenty of them.
When it comes down to perhaps trading for players who could help in 2027 and beyond the Reds likely would need to move prospects. And right now the farm system is in rough shape. They have some guys with plenty of upside that are pretty far away that they could gamble on trading away. But the few guys in the upper minor leagues who are both quality prospects and performing well is minimal. They aren’t going to trade Alfredo Duno, their top prospect. When looking at Double-A and Triple-A the only other prospect that might bring back someone of note on their own is outfielder Hector Rodriguez. That seems unlikely unless he’s traded for an outfielder given the team’s needs and the idea that they want players who can help in 2027 and beyond, which is the timeline that Rodriguez is on.
Either way, buckle up. The Reds are likely to be involved in a whole lot of rumors in the next few weeks. Trade! Sell! Buy! Acquire! It probably won’t be like a movie depicted Wall Street’s trading floor 40 years ago, but it could certainly be busy.
This article has been updated to include Emilio Pagan, which the writer of said article forgot about because he’s a dunce.
Likely we’re looking at another 2022 type sell off. That’s where Krall is comfortable, dumping players/salary for prospects. I’m not expecting much of a haul from any of these guys unless they do trade Greene, which in my view would be incredibly short signed. Regardless, the worst team in the division with the worse farm system isn’t competing in the near future.
Singer should get a solid AA prospect and Burke is a nice lefty reliever. Yankees and now Dodgers need a catcher and in a sellers marker the Reds should be able to add some pitching depth and role players to the upper minors and lottery tickets with upside in the lower minors.
You didnt mention Pierce Johnson but adding Johnson and Suarez to the 5 you listed are being paid a combined $47 million in 2026. Let’s not underestimate the Reds simply wanting to dump salary. The Reds will trade them purely to offload the remaining $16-18 million in prorated savings. For the Reds, thats a lot more than found change in between the couch cushions.
Oldschool, you are spot on! Ownership is looking at dumping salary.
The 5 players mentioned will be traded plus more players. We may come close to losing 100 games which will also give us a good draft pick next year. I like alot of these players like Tyler, Geno, HG which is why I hope they get traded so they have a chance to possibly play in a WS. That will not happen with our Reds for many years. Trade Elly in the off season and maybe even HG. Ownership and front office are just not capable of putting a good team on the field.
Eat more salary, get a real prospect. That, and/or bundle 2 or 3 together for a team’s top 5 guy who can slot into the lineup next year.
Burke would seem to be an extension candidate. We can’t be rummaging the bargain bin every year.
That’s what I’m saying, bundle a starter, a reliever and a catcher and get someone who actually has a good projection. TheReds prefer bodies though as they think it makes them look like they’re changing the organization in a positive way.
Tejay Antone entered this season with exactly five years of major league service time on a minor league free agent contract. His contract was purchased on May 6, 2026. Under the current CBA, he’ll enter the offseason as a year-3 arbitration player.
Random thoughts…..
I agree that refs owners are all about profit/ money . I expect them to trade all they can to dump salary. As for us reds fan, until we can get owners who want to spend/ win , or maybe after the strike/ holdout next year ,that i believe will happen, its going to be some tough losing years ahead sadly.
Lowder , was really good last year & this year he is really bad ! And he’s a high first round draft pick, ugh .
Let’s hope for a win today . I believe we are looking at at least 90 or more loses this year ,ugh.
Lastly , I am not as high on Arroyo as most here , not all , seem to be . No Homer’s. No stolen bases , and I dont think his defense is above average at best . And I even think that that it is rubbing off on Elly’s defense here of late as well ? That’s what my eye balls are seeing . Maybe in my older age I can’t see very good ?
Go Reds !
He looks similar to Hayes to me, at least they don’t owe him a big paycheck.
Yes & agree !
His average is slipping too .
I personally hate his defense , but maybe he will become a really great player ( dont see it as of yet though )
GO Reds !
I hope his defense is rubbing off on Elly. You are talking about a rookie here who has played the majority of his career at a different position. He is an offensive improvement over McLain, who I believe needs a change of scenery.
I have to wonder if the Francona clock is ticking. Does he want to be around for a rebuild and quite frankly he hasn’t shown me a whole lot anyway.Dint think they will fire him but I could see him going home after the season.
MK, I think Arroyo will be okay. Like you said, new position and only been in the big leagues for a month or so. Big improvement over MM plus he is a switch hitter. Francona did not sign up for this IMO so he may step aside on his own? Not much he could do about poor performances, injuries, not much help in AAA, etc.
You are getting what you want then , because Elly has not been playing good defense lately. They have had several chances that they should of easily turned double plays , but are getting only one out instead of taylor made routine double plays . This has cost us runs , wins , and pitchers pitch count to go up . And more at bats for other teams to score .
This is what I am seeing as I painfully watch the Reds hoping we can score a few runs & get some wins .
As for Tito , I dont know , I think what you said is a good possibility that he may decide to go home after this season ? But walking away from lots of money if he does ?
Im just frustrated with the reds , the owners & i need the mow yard but its to smokey out ….
Go Reds !
Package Steer and Singer for Bryan Woo and prospect. Then trade Greene to Dodgers (obviously) who need a frontline starter, for Pages and prospects.
If you’re going to trade Greene (probably not wise) then the Dodgers is where to go, he’d love it, and they have (always) oodles of higher end prospects.
I just fear getting scammed on a trade as their GM/ownership is shrewd, and ours is comically sub-mediocre.
I am alright with the Reds strategy. I think they have a chance to be competitive in 2027 and 2028, so I am against a total rebuild that some want to see. They should keep trying to be competitive. I think they will get some value from the players they trade at deadline and will bring some new ones in during the off-season. I support keeping Steer and Greene. They made the playoffs last year, so I think it is definitely possible in 2027 and 2028. Keep hope alive. Keep the faith even in tough times.
No Bleyday? No Steer? I like both players but get what you can. As for ADDing players why would this happen? Guess I am saying Keep Burns,Stewart,Greene and Elly for now, everything else must go. If the right price for anyone other than Burns Do It. Unless we want an 80 win season every year this team ain’t working.
It is important to not lose sight of the fact that the Reds had a lot of injuries this year. They were in first place with the third best record in baseball before most of the injuries. I think if Suarez showed up with a 49 home run season like he has done previously and the relievers were healthy and good and other players played up to their potential that we would have seen a different Reds team this year. So, I still believe something good is possible in 2027 and 2028, especially building off a strong group of young starters.
You’re right, William, but the Reds have–like many teams- significant injuries every year and there’s no reason to believe that this will change. Losing key bullpen guys helped derail their April success, and it points to one of their ongoing problems: lack of depth. The list of likely trade candidates looks underwhelming and unlikely to return a highly-regarded prospect, never mind a difference making MLB position player. But maybe they could bring some helpful depth?
You won’t find any team that can replace 4 quality relief pitchers if they all go down at the same time. Add to that, the miserable performance by Phillips, losing Fergy, Ashcraft, Pagan and Johnson … the depth you need to replace those guys isn’t in your minor leagues.
You’re right, JCU. That was my point: they didn’t have legitimate replacements in AAA.
Deja vu?
Every year many of us (myself included) lament the amount of injuries and what could have been. I am starting to believe we have a NORMAL amount of injuries and just not enough good play in aggregrate when they’re healthy.
In other words, we are what we are, a below-average talent team, always with 2 or 3 GLARING holes in the hitting lineup and always one good SP sidelined at all times limiting our ability to put together a 19-7 montly record or a 6, 7, 8 game win streak.
…and the solution our GM team came up with last year was to trade for an all-field, no-stick 3B. BRILLIANT! Lets create ANOTHER hole in the hitting lineup AND be stuck with his contract.
I mean, when the Pirates GM and ownership has passed you by…that is a “dead canary in the coalmine” moment.
Being a Reds fan is one-sided and self-defeating. Reds ownership and GM group are scattershot, profit driven, lipstick-on-the-pig operating clown show.
Yep. Trade all of them if you can. We’ll probably only to get A-ball players for them but may as well build up the farm system. Then, sell the team to ownership that will actually spend to contend after the owners’ lockout.
Try to get higher upside talent rather than high floor, no ceiling AAAA types.
A lockout would be the best year the Reds have had in a decade. As a fan, it might be the most exciting season in a long time. We’ll at least be undefeated for a long stretch.
We have an innings eating #4 or 5 starter and 3 relievers that should get interest. Pagan should also be offered if any team is willing to take on his contract. Power hitting righty in Geno, platoon and pinch hitter in Lowe and Stephenson. All 3 should also get interest. I’m sure the FO will get offers for Bleday and Steer, whether they are traded or not, depends on the return. Will any team offer for an often injured, top of the rotation starter in Greene? Or even Lodolo? I wouldn’t be surprised if some teams offer for Myers. A cheap good defensive CF that can play all OF positions and is great against lefties. Looking forward to the players coming to the Reds organization in the next couple of weeks. If we keep Steer and Bleday, I’m thinking 2/3 of the starting lineup after the deadline is set with Dunn, Elly, Sal, Bleday, Steer and Arroyo. I like HRod, Marte and a Trevino/Banfield combo at C to round out the staters on most nights with Hayes, MM and Myers coming off the bench and platooning. If we get players back in the trades that are better and can unseat some of the players mentioned, it makes the Reds even stronger. Friedl joins Benson in Louisville the rest of the season, waiting to be called up in the event of an injury, before finishing off their career with the Reds. Lodolo eventually returns to the rotation as does Ashcraft, Santillan and Williamson in the bullpen. I believe the Reds will continue to play around the current .454 record to close out the season. This FO has at least shown some success in trading off veterans for prospects in the past and can hopefully find the same type of success this deadline. The next Steer, Arroyo, Marte, Petty, HRod, Acuna, Williamson or Phillips could join the organization in the next few weeks. I know not all have been productive for the Reds, but getting something is always better than not getting anything.
I think our starting point needs to be that this offense needs significant help. We are like 28th, not 12th, not 18th. Many of the guys you mentioned post deadline are part of the crime scene. Lineups including Dunn, Arroyo, Marte, and Trevino have produced the 28th ranked offense. Last winter we decided to roll with Benson, MCLain, and Hayes as starters even though they were bad in 2025. Hoping you are not proposing playing the 2026 bad into 2027. That is not likely to improve our offense much if any. Why can’t we see that we need significant improvement? On top of that we are talking about trading Lowe, Stephenson, Suarez, and Singer. Singer is very valuable to the Reds in pitching continuously through the injuries of 3-4 other starters, racking up 160-170 innings while others fade, and putting forth an annual 4.50 ERA. We could have a difficult time replacing his resume. Lose has an OPS in excess of 800. I have a hard time believing we are going to get something better in return. Suarez is Suarez. 220 hitter which we have more than our share of but probably 25-30 HRs. I don’t think that will be easy to replace either. I am not optimistic that we are going to come out of this better than we were before. No, younger isn’t better unless we are rebuilding toward 2029. It won’t be hard to tell. Did we get an 800 OPS guy? A 170 inning pitcher? Or will we be seeing an offense than has Friedl, Johnson, McLain, Marte, and a minor league C?
Ke’Bryan Hayes is now healthy, so the offensive issue should now be fixed by one of our higher paid hitters. Thank goodness we have such a great GM team that saw the upside in Hayes. They really duped the great Pirates franchise that seem to always be making great moves and winning divisions annually.
They say pretty much every year thatthey are trading away and for. If you think about it, that’s what trades are.You have to give to get. It’s like saying nothing by saying nothing by saying something. It would be interesting to see the Reds approach the other handful of welfare teams and trade major leaguers or major leaguers.
I think Reds fans need to be realistic about where this team stands.
The Reds’ strength is their pitching, yet even that projects as no better than average in 2027 unless ownership makes significant investments. Given the organization’s history, I don’t expect that to happen. As a result, I think the Reds enter both 2027 and 2028 with only a small chance of reaching the playoffs.
The Reds had one outstanding month in 2026 when the bullpen was virtually untouchable. Once that bullpen regressed, so did the team. While injuries certainly played a role over the course of the season, the biggest reason for the decline was that the bullpen stopped performing at an elite level and returned to something much closer to its expected talent level.
The strength of this team is its pitching, and here’s how I see it:
Rotation
Burns – Legitimate No. 1 starter.
Greene – Legitimate No. 1 when healthy, but he has been available for only about half of his career.
Abbott – Solid No. 3 starter.
Lodolo – No. 3-quality arm when healthy, but durability has also been an issue.
Lowder – Projects more as a No. 4 or No. 5 starter.
Bullpen
Closer: Emilio Pagán – Below average compared to most MLB closers.
Setup: Tony Santillan – More of a middle-relief option than a late-inning weapon.
Setup: Graham Ashcraft – Probably the best closing option currently on the roster, although I think he was overused this season. His ideal role is the seventh or eighth inning.
Setup: Chase Petty – I know many still see him as a starter, but I believe his long-term value is in relief.
The remaining bullpen options are mostly replacement-level arms.
The rotation also comes with significant injury risk. If Greene or Lodolo miss time again, the Reds are likely turning to pitchers such as Williamson, Aguiar, or Franco. Those are reasonable depth options, but ideally they are fifth starters, not pitchers you want counting on for extended stretches.
Even if everything breaks right, I think this projects as a below-average pitching staff overall.
The offense concerns me even more.
Projected lineup
Catcher – Major question mark.
First Base – Sal Stewart has a chance to be a long-term answer. A post on here ranked him as the 17th-best first baseman in baseball.
Second Base – Major hole.
Third Base – Major hole.
Shortstop – One of the best players in baseball.
Left Field – About average.
Center Field – Major hole.
Right Field – Major hole.
Steer – Below Average
The farm system also offers limited immediate help. Hector Rodriguez projects as an average major leaguer and plays a position currently occupied by one of the Reds 3 best hitters, but beyond him there aren’t many impact position players who appear ready to contribute in 2027.
To become a legitimate contender, the Reds would likely need to add multiple bullpen arms, including a proven closer, strengthen the back of the rotation, and fill at least three of the five major holes in the lineup. That would require a level of spending that I don’t believe ownership is willing to make.
That’s why I don’t think Reds fans should look back at that great month in April 2026 and expect it to represent what this team can sustain over a full six-month season in 2027.
If that’s the reality, then the question isn’t how to patch the roster for 2027—it’s how to build a roster that can truly contend in 2029 and beyond.
Let’s move Steer permanently to first base, he did almost win a gold glove last year.
I see no reason why Stewart can’t be the third baseman of the future.
Now all we need is a second baseman and an outfield. I am a fan of Bleday, but Friedl has been bad and Marte is not good.
Jeff Thomas, great point. Steer at 1B, SS at 3B.
Marte is not going to work out in RF, no pitch recognition.
Bleday is fine in LF, Dunn was getting on base before his injury.
TJ seems done and we need to find out what HROD can do.
MM is no different than KBH, good defense but cannot hit.
3B, 1B, LF, RF and DH should be power bats. Strong defense up the middle, old school way.
Stock, great post, I agree with about everything you said here.
I also think the starting rotation is leaning towards projecting as not a strength anymore heading into 2027, and that is supposed to be their main strength as you said. Greene and Lodolo’s lack of ability to stay consistently healthy, Lowder’s struggles this year, all of a sudden make the rotation really look somewhat average, around the 12-16th best in Baseball in 2027 instead of a Top 8 type of rotation. That’s assuming Abbott and Burns continue to be good and relatively healthy too.
As you said, major holes all through the lineup. They really have 2 every day players in Stewart in De La Cruz. If Steer played First Base you could consider him a 3rd every day player I think. But his value actually decreases when playing him at different spots all over the field where he’s not as good Defensively. It’s not like he’s a Ben Zobrist from back in the day where his hitting is so good you want to get him in the lineup at any position. The Reds put him at all these positions because they don’t have good enough players at all those positions night in night out.
Blake Dunn and Bleday have had some nice moments, and may be capable, we’ll see, but to depend on them as starters is a stretch for the future.
I think the Reds may be in for big trouble moving forward. If fans could see into the future, and see 74 to 84 win teams in 2027, 2028, I think we’d be more open to a bigger rebuild that was more about preparing the team to be good in 2029. Trade Greene as his peak level in the offseason, really consider trading De La Cruz for a huge package in the Offseason if possible.
If you really really weretrying to win in 2027, 2028…why not consider trading Duno? There’s rumors about Hunter Goodman being available albeit at a high price. I bet the Rockies would be interested in a Reds package with Duno and two others.
I love the potential of Duno…but that’s kind of part of the Reds lack of winning mentality of thinking. A winning mentality would be more so to trade for the player who looks like he could be a budding star right now, Goodman, set yourself up at Catcher at least for 2027-2029 while De La Cruz is in his prime if you are actually trying to win with this current core.
But I tend to lean towards the idea this current core is not going to get it done, look to 2029, so they need to basically keep Burns and Stewart as their small core, probably keep Duno in that scenario, and everyone else is tradeable.
Thanks Jeremiah
Think you nailed it. It doesn’t seem like the ownership wants you to believe we are rebuilding toward 2029. I think they want you to think 2026 was an aberration and we will be there in 2027. Problem is that will take the trade of key prospects and additional salary money. Playing Trevino at C takes you backward. Giving up Singer and innings consumption takes you backward. My guess is they will be challenged to replace Lowe, Stephenson, and Suarez in kind but will want you to believe the replacements are much better. I know much better when I see it and aint Marte, Dunn, and the like.
GREAT POST
What a joke?One of the best players in baseball?Shows what the league thinks of him, couldn’t even make the all star cut this year,to cocky,not a good team player,if he was really the stud that some of you think he is maybe this team would at least be 500,get whatever you can for him and his pink shoestrings and move on,they just keep him around because he’s cheap now and he sells a few tickets to loyal supporters of this AAA team
I can promise you, the rest of the league thinks very highly of him. If the Reds put Elly on the trading block, almost every other team in MLB would line up to present their best offer.
I also don’t know where you get he isn’t a team player. It seems like the rest of the team loves him.
Robert literally only comes on here to leave comments about how much he does not like De La Cruz. It’s real weird and strange.
Just coming back in to add that this is the 4th!!!!!!!!! time that Robert has complained about PINK stinking shoestrings as if it’s some flaw in a mans morality.
It is going to be a big snooze. Losing Singer will hurt given there is almost nothing in the minor leagues to replace him. There is no reason to be optimistic about next year either. The dark times continue.
I feel similar.
We have little to trade that will bring back anything notable. Maybe a 23 year-old upside prospect still stuck in A ball.
I am going to guess one trade for just such a boring nobody in return.
Then we’ll get the “we didn’t get an offer we liked, so we stood pat”.
I don’t think our GM team is capable of putting togther their own offers AND explaining to the opposing GM how this makes sense value wise (stats, analytics) and get anything more than a subpar return.
I feel like our GM team isn’t even AAA worthy, more like an independent league franchise level that can find a scrub in semi-pro to sign that has a decent year.
I often read that the Reds’ biggest weakness is their inability to draft and develop talent like other successful small-market organizations.
The two teams most often mentioned are the Brewers and Rays.
Both are perennial contenders, and this year they own the second- and third-best records in baseball behind the Dodgers.
If the Reds want to emulate those organizations, the first question is simple:
Are the Brewers and Rays actually drafting and developing talent better than the Reds?
Here are the players each organization has drafted over the past 10 years who have already produced a positive major league WAR.
Reds
• Hunter Greene
• Jonathan India
• Nick Lodolo
• Graham Ashcraft
• Matt McLain
• Andrew Abbott
• Blake Dunn
• Sal Stewart
• Rhett Lowder
• Chase Burns
Combined Career WAR: 51.9
Brewers
• Brice Turang
• Drew Rasmussen
• Garrett Mitchell
• Sal Frelick
• Tyler Black
• Logan Henderson
• Jacob Misiorowski
Combined Career WAR: 40.8
Rays
• Josh Fleming
• Matt Liberatore
• Shane McClanahan
• Taj Bradley
• Nick Sogard
• Ian Seymour
• Kyle Manzardo
• Chandler Simpson
Combined Career WAR: 24.2
By this measure, the Reds haven’t merely kept pace—they’ve outperformed both organizations.
Current Top 100 prospects tell a similar story.
Reds
• Mike Sirota (#11)
• Steele Hall (#52)
Brewers
• Cooper Pratt (#56)
• Josh Adamczewski (#94)
Rays
• Theo Gillen (#9)
• Nathan Flewelling (#74)
What about the international market?
Here are the international signees from the past 10 years who have already produced positive major league WAR.
Reds
• Elly De La Cruz (15.5 WAR)
Brewers
• Abner Uribe (2.9 WAR)
• Jackson Chourio (8.8 WAR)
Rays
• Wander Franco (9.4 WAR)
Through the 2023 international signing class, the Reds also held the edge in top prospects.
Reds
• Alfredo Duno (#24)
Brewers
• Luis Lara (#67)
Rays
• None
The Brewers may eventually swing this comparison in their favor with their outstanding 2024 international class, led by Jesus Made (#1) and Luis Peña (#18), but those players have not yet reached the major leagues.
The point isn’t that the Reds have drafted perfectly or signed every great international player. It’s that the evidence doesn’t support the idea that Cincinnati’s biggest problem is amateur scouting or player development.
If the Reds have consistently produced as much—or more—major league talent than Milwaukee and Tampa Bay, then perhaps the difference between these organizations lies somewhere other than drafting and development.
Great information. Great post, Stock.
One consideration in this area, Stock, goes beyond the Brewers results in acquiring valuable players via the draft and internationally. It is how well they have added to their systems via their trades, especially of their top shelf players. That — player acquisition including trades — would possibly level things out a bit more between the Reds and them.
Except that Sirota is in the Dodgers organization, acquired as part of the Lux trade, along with a draft pick. Good move by Krall & Company. BTW, Sirota’s on base streak ended at 72 games, falling short of the record 74. Who needs an OF’er like that.
Great insight.
In my last post, I argued that the biggest difference between the Reds and organizations like Milwaukee and Tampa Bay isn’t drafting or player development. It’s asset management.
That leads to an uncomfortable question.
If the Reds truly adopted the Brewers’ philosophy, what would they do after the All-Star break?
The easy decisions come first.
the Reds don’t expect to contend this season, expiring contracts should be moved. Every day they remain on the roster, their value declines.
The more difficult discussion involves players who still have multiple years of club control.
Nick Lodolo has pitched well and quality starting pitching has never been more valuable. Andrew Abbott’s value may also be near its peak. Jay Bleday has increased his value as well.
Would Milwaukee listen on those players?
History suggests the answer is yes.
The Brewers traded Josh Hader while leading their division in August of 2022. In the winter before the 2024 season they traded Corbin Burnes before free agency. They still won the division in 2024. In the winter before the 2025 season they trade Devin Williams. They still won the division in 2025. Last winter they traded Freddie Peralta. They are currently leading the division. hey have repeatedly shown they’re willing to exchange today’s value for greater long-term value.
That raises an even bigger question.
If the Reds trade players like Lodolo, Abbott and Bleday, are they realistically competing for a championship in 2027?
As a small-market club, the Reds aren’t likely to solve that problem through free agency. They also shouldn’t be solving it by trading premium prospects for short-term major league help. Hopefully, a lesson learned in the Gavin Lux trade. That’s a strategy large-market teams can survive. Small-market teams usually can’t.
If that’s true, then every season the Reds hold players they don’t intend to extend, those players lose trade value.
A player with 3½ years of control is worth significantly more than one with only two years remaining.
Which leads to the most uncomfortable question of all.
If the Reds don’t believe they can extend Elly De La Cruz, and if they don’t believe they can realistically build a championship-caliber roster before he reaches free agency, should he be considered untouchable?
The same question applies to Hunter Greene.
I’m not arguing that the Reds should trade either player.
I’m asking whether a small-market organization can truly follow the Brewers’ philosophy while declaring any player completely unavailable.
Everyone wants the sustained success Milwaukee has achieved.
The harder question is whether we’re willing to accept the difficult decisions required to achieve those results.
I agree and believe that there are 2 major things that hurt this organization year in and year out. Not trading away players at the correct time and the mistakes in large contract(for the Reds)free agent signings. I think we can build a better, more consistent winning organization by being better in these 2 areas. Not much more to say
Wow, @Stock. You pretty much hit for the cycle with your stats and analysis. Krall will probably make lots of trades to move salary and I applaud that (since we must be preparing for 2029). I also like the previous post @RedsFan… as it states the obvious deficiencies in trading players at the right time and inability to land productive big contract players. Let Krall do what he is good at (saving $$) and then take the blame when the team flounders the next 2 years. Perhaps only then will there be a space for a new organization to right the ship and get preannounced significant spending authority. In Cincinnati it seems to take 20-30 years of failure in just about anything before a different approach is tried.
Thanks DD
Great posts Stock. Your 2 posts should be required reading because 95% of the people on here won’t read it and continue to spout nonsense every game thread. I am totally with you on looking into what market Elly has. I believe the Reds could offer him 10/600 mil and he still wouldn’t sign. He is going to the bright lights and leaving Cincy behind. Brewers would have cashed in on him for sure. Does it suck ? Yes, but that’s the way it is now in this baseball world.
Thanks JB
“The harder question is whether we’re willing to accept the difficult decisions required to achieve those results.”
Yes and I might add they need good smart/wise baseball people making those difficult decisions.
More half measures…
If they want to compete in the future, they have to trade away actual “good” players. They don’t have enough “good” players to compete now, but they might be able to acquire prospects who will become “good” players by 2029.
Were it up to me, I would trade Elly, Steer, Bleday, Stephenson, Dunn, Abbott, and Lodolo in addition to the players listed in this article. Greene, maybe, but that would be selling low. Hope he performs well then trade him in the winter.
Tear it all down to the studs and put the focus firmly on 2029 or 2030. The Reds will be REALLY bad for the next few years, but if they make smart trades, they could have a young, talented, exciting team on the field by the time 2030 arrives. I expect the teams for the next few years to be made up of cheap placeholders for the talent they are waiting to graduate.
There’s no point persisting with this current crop. The window was there, and the Reds botched it (again). Admit that it failed, trade away anyone who will be 30 or older by 2029 (who are all the players I listed), and try again.
If I thought they’d go mostly-all-in at that time, 29 or 30, when some young guys are busting out in MLB year 1 and year 2, then cool.
Right now, I see NO METHOD whereby this ownership group lead by the frugal and completely disinterested (in winning) Castellini duo, will put a true contender on the field.
Sadly, with Phil in tow, this might go on well past my expiration date. I’d just as soon call Phil’s bluff and let him move the team. They’d spend like crazy for a couple of years and then become the Marlins (when they spend like mad to justify new stadium and then pulled the plug on the gullible citizens and government leaders).
The only thing that could save this team now, is if some A.I. bubble billionaires decides he/she wants an MLB team and has a fondness for the REds and makes an offer the Reds ownership group cannot turn down. We can dream. Reds sell for $5 billion or something.
Reds ownership and front office make it very difficult to be a Reds fan.
After reading all of this, I am thinking of a certain Ramones song.
20, 20, 24 hours to go
…
Nothing to do, nowhere to go
At least watching the Red’s offense I don’t need to be sedated…
I just wish people would stop going to games.
Who cares if they move the team. Their choices may be limited and the possible locations will understand how little they care about winning. It would happen, but like posted above, they’d spend for two years, and after the dust settles with new or upgraded stadium, they’d pull the plug on payroll and Phil will say the same stupid, 3rd grade crap he always said. “Where ya gonna go” to Austin or San Antonio or Raleigh or whomever.
Was the window really there? With a few exceptions–and those have had injury issues–the core proved disappointing.
Was it all an illusion?
Why, yes: I believe that it was. The heady moments this particular illusion provided in its first year have dissipated like steam in a strong breeze.
Water slipping through your hands
I think, if the Reds had gone all-in and actually brought in some difference-making free agents to fill the obvious holes, they could have won consistently and been a perennial playoff contender.
Instead, in the spirit of half-measures, all of their free agent acquisitions have been dumpster-diving reclamation projects. The Reds were always one or two players away, and this front office never provided them with those one or two players when they needed them.
Bingo.
The Reds need to go ahead and see if Steer would sign and early extension. He has been the quiet glue on this team. Could you imagine if he had been injured or something? I know he’s not the best at anything, but he is solid in most and that’s better than most other Reds players.
No offense, Jason, but there is no glue for a last place team.
I like Steer but see no reason for an early extension. He unfortunately looks a lot better than he his because the competition on the team is low. He’d be a good 7th or 8th best starter or a utility player on a good team.
Dont think I am in a mood for another complete tear down or even a partial.
Oh well can free up my summer not wasting time on a organization that seems to flop continuously.
Maybe David Bell wasnt the problem. As Common denominator has been the owners
I mean, like it or not, that’s what’s needed. The team as currently constructed is going nowhere.
Same as it ever was
We tried to tell everybody that David Bell wasn’t the problem. The issue then, same as it is now, is the players. They simply aren’t good enough.
I expected more out of Marte but let’s be honest Francona has never given him a chance. Let’s look at this series he started one of three and went 1 for 4 with a run, not great but good for this team.
He isnt good. As much as you hate on Elly you seem to give Marte a free pass. The dude has had his chances and sucks.
Come on @Kevin, give Marte a break. They took away his PEDs. Seriously, he’s got the tools but not the discipline and attitude as the coaches have noted previously. Tito has already given him more chances than he’s earned. Far more than a guy like Hinds received.
Let’s face it. Marte has never been good defensively wherever he’s played. He’s never hit consistently. The way his head is screwed on has always concerned me the most. Hope he proves me wrong. He has all the talent in the world.
I don’t hate on Elly I just say he is a great player but not generational until he cleans up the silly mistakes and learns to hit in the clutch. Even you have to admit Elly is not a clutch hitter, yet. As for Marte he reminds me of Jordan Walker who prior to this year, the Cardinals were about to give up on. They gave him enough chances and look where he is now. The Reds have never given Marte a long run of being an everyday player.
Melvin: that is the problem he does have a ton of talent and I would hate for some other team to bring it out of him because the Reds gave up on him.
It was a different time and place, but the Reds sold in 1959 and 1960.
1959 Temple to CLE. Hoak, Burgess, Haddix to PIT. Thomas to CHI. Out of those moves, the Reds got solid 1B hitting from Gordy Coleman 1960 to 1966. And good closer CL Bill Henry from 1960 to 1964.
1960 McMillan to MIL. McLish and Pizarro to SOX. Gonzalez to PHI. Out of those moves the Reds got SP Joey Jay from 1961 to 1966. And LF Wally Post (three years) plus 3B Gene Freese (for a year).
1961. Bailey to SFG. Nuxhall to KCA. Out of those moves the Reds got 2B Blasingame (for two years) and SP John Tsitouris (mid 1960s). They got Nuxhall back in 1962. He was a good SP in mid 1960s.
The Reds were very good to excellent 1961 to 1965. Those trade acquisitions plus young stars coming up from Reds minor leagues were a big reason why.
Before free agency! A time when you had to trade and draft and you didn’t buy a winner.
I know this won’t be popular with some, but if the Reds decide they can’t realistically contend in 2027 or 2028, I think they should fully commit to building for 2029–2032.
The goal wouldn’t be to remain competitive in the short term. It would be to maximize the number of impact players under team control during what I believe could be the organization’s next legitimate championship window.
That means no player should be considered untouchable—not even Elly De La Cruz or Hunter Greene.
This isn’t because I want to trade them. It’s because players with multiple years of team control have the highest trade value in baseball. If you’re going to rebuild, you should do it when your assets are worth the most, not after their value begins to decline.
Some of these trade concepts were inspired by ideas I’ve seen elsewhere, but the overall strategy—and any criticism that comes with should be directed at me.
The benchmark I used is the Juan Soto trade. When Washington dealt Soto in August 2022, he had approximately 2½ years of control remaining. Elly and Greene each have roughly 3½ years of control, so in theory their trade value should be at least comparable, if not greater.
Washington received:
CJ Abrams (#9 prospect)
MacKenzie Gore (#10 prospect)
Robert Hassell III (#30 prospect)
James Wood (unranked before 2022, #11 shortly afterward)
In other words, Washington turned one superstar into two elite prospects, another Top 30 prospect, and a fourth prospect who quickly developed into an elite talent. That’s the type of return I used as the framework for these proposals.
An additional benefit of a full teardown is that the Reds would likely draft near the top of the first round in both 2027 and 2028. Those selections would become another source of high-end talent to complement the prospects acquired in trades. By the time the club is ready to contend again, the roster would consist of players acquired through four different avenues: the current farm system, the trade returns, high draft picks, and future international signings.
IF they just nibble and don’t fix issues, like having NO top tier hitter, no OF or 3B that can hit, then I am on board with this.
I’d send three or four offers out for Greene (start with the Dodgers and their giant prospect pool), EDLC, Speer, Lodolo, Abbott, and most any other semi-valuable piece and, hopefully walk away with the clear best prospect pool in MLB.
They’d have to nail the Greene and EDLC trades (or one if they just trade one). Chances are both would turn into ONE solid/good MLB player and a few disappointmnets, but their is outside chance it nets you two or three above average MLB hitters/pitchers and at a cheap rate.
All that said, ownership hasn’t, isn’t and WON’T do whats needed to spend and trade for necessary missing piece (a real expenditure, not medium tier, high K hitter or medium tier inconsistent pitcher).
Here are my 10 trades:
To Philadelphia: Brady Singer, Spencer Steer
To Cincinnati:
Cade Obermueller – Age 22/LHSP/Draft 2025 Rd 2/Current Level A
Gage Wood – Prospect #50, Age 22, Level AAA
To Cleveland: Eugenio Suarez
To Cincinnati:
Will Hynes – 19/RHP/2025 Round 2/ACL
To Chicago Cubs: Nathaniel Lowe
To Cincinnati:
Jaims Martinez – 17/SS/2026 Int 900K/DSL
Pierce Coppola – 23/RH nothing more than a RP
To Miami: Caleb Ferguson Brock Burke
To Cincinnati:
Luis Arena – 18/SS/A Ball
Nate Payne – 20/RHSP/Rd 18/A+
To Texas: Pierce Johnson
To Cincinnati: Hector Osorio 21/OF/A+
To Houston: JJ Bleday
To Cincinnati:
Xavier Neyens – 19/3B/2025 Rd 1/A+
Albert Fermin – 17/3B/2.3 M
To Tampa Bay: Tyler Stephenson
To Cincinnati:
Trevor Harrison – 20/RHP 2023 Rd 5/A+
Jackson Baumeister – 24/RH RP
To Miami: Andrew Abbott
To Cincinnati: Karson Milbrandt Prospect 72, RHP, Age 22, AAA
To LA Dodgers: Hunter Greene
To Cincinnati
Josue DePaula Prospect 4, OF, Age 21, AA
Eduardo Quintero Prospect 30, OF, Age 20, A+
Christian Zazueta Prospect 85, RHP, Age 22, A+
Zach Root, Age 22, LHP, 2025 1st round draft pick, A+
To Seattle: EDLC, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft, Sam Moll
To Cincinnati:
Kade Anderson – Prospect #5, LHP, 22, AA
Ryan Sloan – Prospect #8, RHP, 20, AA
Johnny Farmelo – Prospect #60, OF, 21, A+
Felnin Celesten – Prospect #70, SS, 20, A+
Juan Rijo – 17/OF/2.2 M/DSL
Well, at least you spelled their names correctly.
I assume you did.
Awesome prospect pool with some instant plug-ins next year.
Castellinis would be so excited they might both have heart attacks at such a low payroll, hopefully survive but turn over controlling rights to someone that cares and is acutally competent.
We’d suffer but not in any different way than we suffer now. Plus we’d have optimism again. This would also be great for Phil and Bob, as they could crush our hopes all over again…and again, by being all talk and sucking every penny out of the franchise.
Still say NO ONE should buy season tickets or go to games. F em.
Here is a summary of what we would have after these trades.
SP: Current ML players or top 100 Prospects
Chase Burns
#5 Kade Anderson
#8 Ryan Sloan
#50 Gage Wood
#72 Karson Milbrandt
#85 Christian Zazueta
A really good group that should be ready by 2029 or earlier.
Other SP in full season ball in the system: Jose Franco, Julien Aguiar, Brandon Williamson
SP in full season ball acquired via these trades: Cade Obermueller, Will Hynes, Nate Payne, Trevor Harrison, Zach Root
Other Pitching, Aaron Watson, Ryjeteri Merite, Iker Redona
Great pitching and lots of depth.
Bats: Current ML players or top 100 Prospects
C: Alfredo Duno
1B: Sal Stewart
SS: Felnin Celesten, Steele Hall
OF: Josue DePaula, Eduardo Quintero, Johnny Farmelo
Other in Full season Ball:
Hector Rodriguez – OF, Xavier Neyens – 3B, Hector Osorio – OF, Justin Lebron – SS, Aaron Becker – SS
7 of 9 positions could be filled by top 100 prospects and 2 or three others could join them in the next year or two.
Overall:
Pitching: 6 top 100 prospects and 1-3 others to join them.
Hitting: 7 top 100 prospects and 1-3 others to join them.
2 upcoming top 5 picks in the 2027 and 2028 drafts.
An absolutely loaded group of players in the ACL and DSL.
Only DePaula and perhaps Kade Anderson are interesting trade targets to be included in deals for EDLC and Greene. This is just one big tear down. I would like to see more major league players coming to the banks of the Ohio, not just prospects, which could also be called suspects.
How about Greene for Jackson Merrill, Ethan Salas and Kash Mayfield? I see Duno as a monster DH, not a long term answer behind the plate.
I like the startegy of moving Greene and or EDLC while they have years of control to get a better return. Elly especially because he is not going to extend here with Boras as his agent.
If the Reds make all those trades, they will not be .500 or better until 2031 or later.
And if they don’t it may be even longer than that. I see 2029 as the beginning of the turn around.
I think that the 2028 rotation will be Burns, Anderson, Sloan, Wood and Milbrandt. There are 3 #1 SP in this group. Wood and Milbrandt are really good. Milbrandt may not even be in the rotation if Lowder can figure it out.
On offense they will have Duno, Stewart, Edwin Arroyo, Xavier Neyens, Felnin Celesten, Josue DePaula, Eduardo Quintero, and Johnny Farmelo. I am not saying all these guys will make it. But six of these seven are top 70 prospects.
With 6 top 100 prospects projected in the lineup in 2028 to be joined by Steele Hall in 2029 there will be at least 14 top 100 prospects on the Reds roster. Some will fail. But most will not.
What Stock said.
They’re on a trajectory to be sub-.500 for a long time.
Burns and Greene extensions were great, but remmeber, that means payroll will now be constrained for several years (Castellinis will wine they have 1/4 of payroll tied up in two SPs already).
I think there is some consensus around the Reds making bigger moves if the bosses can’t see playoff competitiveness in 2027. I think that is probably spot on thinking, albeit 2027-2028 would be gloomy years W//L wise. I however see no way of that happening because of the admittance of failure factor and the no chance position for 2 years. Nobody respects a rebuilding team.
But I believe that if we go pretty darn big at the deadline, we can be competitive in 2027. Pretty darn big is a much better offense and starting pitching depth. Pretty darn big means 2 significant offensive additions in CF and C. Yeah, the consensus top 5-6 stay but guys like Marte, Arroyo, Duno, Abbott, Lodolo, etc. don’t have protection. Goodman hit what his 30th HR today and reportedly can be had. Wouldn’t something like Duno and Lowder/Petty be enough for a rebuilder? I totally agree that if you desire to keep 2027 in focus, you need big offensive additions that probably will require prospects. If you don’t want to trade prospects, then you you probably can kiss 2027 good bye.
Some nice research Stock.
I took one example a little further…the Josh Hader trade.
Hader went to San Diego for Taylor Rogers, Dinelson Lamet, Estuery Ruiz, and Robert Gasser. That’s the same Taylor Rogers the Reds got from SF for Brandon Roxby (who?). Lamet is now playing in Mexico. They flipped Ruiz in a 3 team trade, getting William Contreas from Atlanta for Sean Murphy, and getting Joel Payamps, and Justin Yeager from the A’s. Ruiz became a base stealer supreme but was later DFA’d and now playing in the minors for Miami. Robt Gasser underwent Tommy John. In 2026 with Brewers he’s started 10 games, pitched 51 innings giving up 48 hits, 11 HRs, pitching to a 4,91 ERA.
So, while they unloaded Hader before losing him to FA. They got Rogers (who did pretty well for them in 2023, but not at Hader’s level, and lost him to SF in FA the next year. SF signed him to 3 years but unloaded him to the Reds for Roxby. Interestingly, Taylor started with Minnesota and was traded to Padres for Emilo Pagan and Chris Paddock.
The real coup here was the ability of the Brewers to somehow piggy back on the A’s and Atlanta trade (Sean Murphy to Atlanta from the A’s for change) to get Contreas and only giving up Ruiz.
I guess my point is, just looking at the Hader trade, they survived it and round-about picked up Contreas. But lots of chaff along with it, some of it coming the Reds way over time.
Hader’s since traded from Brewers (5.5), Contreras w/ Brewers (13.9). For comparison, Mahle trade yielded Steer (5.6WAR) and CES (-1.3) and Hajjer, Mahle (2.4 since trade)
Stock, I know you know your teardown is aspirational, meaning you are sitting on both sides of the negotiating table.
Also, of course, not all, and maybe none of those prospects rise to be ‘impact’ players.
Nats still a .500 club after tearing club down in 2021. A comparable tear down by Reds in 2026 would result in a .500 club in 3031.
I haven’t done the research but I think the Steer, CES, Marte, Williamson, Petty, Arroyo, Rodreguez, Fraley haul for Castillo, Mahle, Gray, Suarez, and Winker …add to that McLain and EDLC in 2023…looked pretty good on paper. But didn’t quite work out as planned (Steer OK, Marte and Arroyo, Williamson, Petty to be seen, CES, Fraley gone, McLain on his way out).
Notwithstanding your analysis above, I think the Reds need to do a better job at drafting hitters that can transition to the big leagues. EDLC and Sal the only ones since Votto and Bruce.
Many Reds fans are against a total rebuild. You will lose fans, and the ownership is not going to do that right now. Believe it or not…I have a college degree, too. I think a total rebuild right now is not the way the Reds ownership should go. I oppose it.
Even if you KNOW ownership will not spend to fill glaring weaknesses with antyhing by sub 0 WAR FAs?
Even if you know ownership won’t try and contend?
Greene and Burns signings were good, but if they start back up with “not much wiggle room on the payroll” for the next 3 or 4 years, then what?
I’d rather have the hope of shiny new toys.
Plus, if they sell off for oodles of prospects, it MIGHT be signalling they’re preparing to sell the team. Hoping an A.I. multi-billionaire is hankering for an MLB franchise and swoops in and overpays.
While not popular and maybe just horrible thinking, I am wondering if trading Greene or EDLC NOW, to a team loaded with prospects, like the Dodgers, might make sense.
I know we have so few good players, why trade ones that are positive WAR with controllable seasons ahead, but I wonder how far away we really are? Might having 5 or 6 more top 100 prospects be better for two and three years from now than the daily trade rumors surraounding Greene and EDLC as they get closer to walk time?
I guess the bottom line is, until we get a good, shrewd GM, not much willl improve. Ownership is a giant clamp or anchor on any GM and only a shrewd one can make this work (like a Brewers or Rays franchise). We haven’t had a shrewd GM in a VERY long time, maybe decades, pre-Marge Schott era possibly.
As a Reds fan who just asks them to be competitive every year, I just wanna understand how they can bring on a contract (Hayes) or sign a new one (Pagan) and in less than a calendar year they are already bad contracts that we look to offload to the nearest sucker who will take them? Same thing w Candy the year before. How committed to these players are they when they sign them?
The Reds are one year past making the playoffs. I hope they can figure out how to make the playoffs in 2027 which will probably be a shorter year due to a players strike and lack of depth might be less of an issue. I am for building a winning culture instead of calling for a rebuild one year out from making the playoffs. The Brewers are smart enough to figure out how to win with a small market. The Reds just need to figure this out as well.
The players will not be striking. The owners will be implementing a lockout. There’s an important difference in the two things.
Thanks for the correction.