The Cincinnati Reds used the 18th overall pick in the 2026 Major League Baseball Draft to select Justin Lebron, a shortstop out of the University of Alabama.
Justin Lebron Scouting Report
There are some things to love on the scouting report for Justin Lebron. And there are some pretty big questions, too.
Starting with the things to love – he has the biggest upside of any player in the draft. He has a chance to be an above-average defensive shortstop thanks to both his range and his plus arm strength. On the bases he’s got tons of speed and this year at Alabama went 42-for-43 in stolen base attempts. And he’s got a chance to hit for above-average to plus power.
The other side of that, though, is that he struggled to hit in 2026. During his 61 games season he hit just .277/.386/.534. While that may not look like it’s struggling, for a college player taken in the 1st round it’s not good. Most college hitters are at .330 or higher. But it may be even worse for Lebron because he hit just .229/.328/.413 during SEC conference play, which is where he would have seen better pitching than he saw out of conference.
Scouting reports from just about every publication note that he struggles to see and hit offspeed stuff. He only had 27 walks to go along with 56 strikeouts as a junior. For a college 1st rounder that’s a very low walk rate and a very high strikeout rate.
College Stats
Video
Quick Thoughts on Draft Day
This is a pure high upside pick. You have to bet that the development team can teach Justin Lebron to not only hit but to recognize non-fastballs. The track record of that happening anywhere in baseball, but particularly with the Reds it’s tough to point to someone that they’ve been successful at doing that with. His strikeout-to-walk ratio in college as a junior is far worse than your typical 1st round pick and the track record of hitters with rates like his turning into big league hitters is very small. This feels like the epitome of a high risk, high reward pick.
“You have to bet that the development team can teach Justin Lebron to not only hit but to recognize non-fastballs”
Are these the same guys that were going to turn KBH around?
KBH, MM, Hinds, Benson and on and on……..
Hey MFG. Stick Suarez in that group as well.
Ugh! This sounds almost comically familiar.
So Doug, I share your skepticism about Justin LeBron. While he seems very athletically talented, where do you think he starts with the Reds after the draft (and assuming they can sign him)?
I don’t know any scouting reports, but was there a better pick out there at #18? I read somewhere that some scouts think this years draft class is “flat”, in that there is not a real big gradation in talent from maybe the 10th pick through the 40th pick.
Thanks for all you do. I read last night that you have a big workload these last few days, and next few days. Don’t wear yourself out.
“Scouting reports from just about every publication note that he struggles to see and hit offspeed stuff.”
There are stats and scouting reports that MLB GMs look at, and then theres stats and reports that Nick Krall looks at. The definition of insanity. The only luck he has is when he drafts college pitchers because they are the easiest to project.
Krall continues to prove his critics right. Its too easy.
ESPN had him ranked 8th. Seems awfully high for a guy whose average and slugging dropped substantially from the prior year and has trouble with the breaking ball. But he’s a SS (for us that means also CF), so of course…
Should have grabbed the best pitcher available if that was the best position player on the board.
I say this every year and one day I hope people remember: POBO’s and GM’s are almost never making draft picks. The scouting directors are. The days of the POBO/GM doing that have been gone for a while.
You know people won’t remember. You will have to say it again next season. Maybe start instituting capital punishment for incorrect statements on RLN comments? lol
@Doug, I probably went too far. Let’s just start with corporal punishment instead. 🙂
We will be instituting gluttony as punishment. Basically everyone that gets on the wrong side of me has to bring me delicious foods if they want to continue posting comments.
Ha ha! Seems fair enough to me.
So the GM doesn’t rubber stamp the first round pick beforehand? Interesting.
Let’s pretend that the GM did – that’s still not Nick Krall.
The POBO and or GM is not going out and scouting the players that they think will be there at the #18 pick in the draft. That would be like 50 players to look at from March through May. They might see a few guys. But they are getting reports from their scouts. All of the information they are basing their decisions on is coming from the scouts and scouting director. The people who have watched the guy multiple times every year for the last 2-3-5 years. So even if someone above the scouting director is “making the call” it’s based on what the scouting director is telling them is the best player. So it’s still the scouting director making the call.
Plus it’s hard to believe that gm’s don’t follow every first round pick and occasionally make the call to scouting and say… hey, here’s who we’re going with.
That just shocks me. At the very least, the GM should have draft parameters.
At Union as the judge”athlete” should have way less people of a factor. It’s not working!!!
Of course the GM and POBO are talking to the scouting director about what things are shaping up like. But unlike in 1990 when the GM was actually traveling around and playing scout, that’s just not happening anymore. Not like it used to.
I also find downside, though hard to quantify, that this guy with “tons of speed” and a great stolen base record has only recorded 1 triple in over 800 plate appearances. Good luck though, we know we will be looking for a good SS in the next few years.
That is what stood out to me. Seems strange.
I would venture to guess that it’s similar to the “Adam Dunn doesn’t hit sac flies” stuff. The ball goes over the fence rather than stays in the park.
Perhaps the same gurus who taught Dick Simpson how to hit off-speed after the Frank Robinson trade are still available.
The Reds hitting coach in 1966 was Roy Sievers. He was a star 1B in the AL for many years and had a reputation among AL pitchers of the 1950s and 1960s as the best curveball hitter in the AL.
So, there’s that.
Jimmy Bragan was hitting coach in 1967.
@oldrimer. Dam old timer I am always amazed of your recall
I must give credit to Baseball Reference and the wonders of Google.
You had to remember a lot more than I do to even know what to look for, OT.
I, admittedly, have no idea if he is a good pick or not. It sounds like a reach based on Doug’s article. But, I do get the feeling that Nick Krall thinks he is always the smartest person in the room. Patting himself on the back for the KBH deal last summer is exhibit A.
Hope this pick works out.
Nick Krall doesn’t make the draft picks. The scouting director does.
Who hires the scouting director?
I mean if we’re going to play that game then everything is Phil Castellini’s fault. He hasn’t fired Krall, who hasn’t fired Meador, who hasn’t fired….. who hasn’t fired…. who hasn’t fired….
And your point is …
“everything is Phil Castellini’s fault.”
No argument from me
ESPN had him at #8, MLB.com had him at #9, and The Athletic had him at #19. Doug summed him up nicely, high risk, high reward; at #18, that’s not a reach. FWIW, I would have preferred a higher floor pick, but I do understand their reasoning.
That Krall and Meador don’t make the picks directly doesn’t mean they aren’t calling the shots.
Exactly. Oh no, Nick Krall is just a bystander. Please.
You people are so desperate to blame Krall for anything and everything it’s comical. It wouldn’t have mattered who was chosen. It was just going to be one finger keyboard time. Middle school stuff.
They blame Krall for a great deal, but they also blame Hayes–who hasn’t played in seven weeks–a great deal.
It won’t. They picked a guy who has all of the traits of .200 hitting players who strikes out a lot. The Reds scouting department misses some tea leaves IMHO.
Yet another SS to play out of position The “best athlete” strategy hasn’t worked well thus far.
Here’s what Keith Law said at The Athletic to begin his report on Justin Lebron
Lebron has the tools to be the top pick, and if this were 1993, he’d probably be the obvious 1-1 pick. I’m increasingly concerned that he’s not going to hit, as he didn’t hit well this spring, especially once the opposing pitching got better in SEC play.
Maybe the reds should change there approach. Instead of try to teach good athletes how to hit. Let’s try to teach good hitters how to be athletic
Bingo!! That concept might work. Hitting .277 is not exactly tearing the cover off the ball in college baseball.
Literally just draft the best bat available always when drafting a non pitcher. It’s by far the most important trait and somehow the reds consistently underrate it. I’m so tired of drafting/signing guys with “loud tools” for all the billy Hamiltons a Aristides Aquinos, rece Hinds, so on and so forth. I’m tired of chasing “5-tool players”. If a guy can do literally nothing else but hit, he has more value than someone who does a lot of things decently well. I think we can all agree that Elly is the most toolsy prospect we’ve had in some time. Maybe decades. And he’s definitely great don’t get me wrong. But I severely doubt peak Elly will ever reach the heights of peak Votto. Now, I’m glad we had both, but the point is, the best hitter will always have more value than someone who is special at everything else and above average at hitting. Look for more Sal Stewart types.
All aspects of the game– and the applicable tools–are important. It’s one of the great things about baseball. A team that scores runs and doesn’t prevent them will be just as unsuccessful and frustrating as a team with the opposite characteristics. Good teams are good at scoring runs and presenting runs. Obviously.
Whether that’s possible or not depends upon your definition of athletic. Many people would cite speed, strength, reflexes, hand-to-eye coordination and leaping ability as the main components of athleticism, all of which are largely a result of genetic makeup.
Looking at his steals rate and his glove, he may be a version of Billy Hamilton — and in the best of all worlds, that has potential to be a pretty good part of an offensive mix.
I just wonder if Lebron was selling out for home runs in a lineup that didn’t really have a lot of weaknesses. They didn’t get to Omaha by accident.
High risk, high reward? I thought Krall was trying to eliminate peaks and valleys?
This pick looks like bust written all over it, as the Reds havent seemed to develop players’ batting skills over the past decade.
The guy hit .227 in the SEC? Did the Reds run to the podium? Someone please make this make sense.
Who else did you think they should have selected in the 18 spot?
And “anybody else” is not an acceptable answer.
@Jcu
Not trying to be argumentative but only 2 pitchers had been drafted so Reds had an opportunity to get a top pitcher on the board
Lebron turns 22 in november and is a hitting reclamation project and years and years away at best from MLB . Cant draft college players pushing 22 who arent close in the first round
Senzel/ India/lodolo/ lowder/burns were at least all close
Hes so old to be so far away.
Phil Ervin took forever to be a marginal role player
Jake Schaffner. Ace Reese. A plethora of pitchers.
This is your 1st round draft pick. It is no place to reach for a player who MIGHT become able to hit the breaking stuff.
Hint: They’re going to throw him 100% off speed stuff.
I see the end of “Trouble With the Curve” over and over in my head.
Well, yeah I did see Flukey still on the board, so that would have been at least a chance to look under the hood. FWIW, I don’t love the Lebron pick and I’d wager Steele Hall beats him to the majors. The Becker pick was curious but I actually like Becker more. It’s hard to say about an 18 pick. I don’t bother with batting average, any more than the rest of the smart people do.
Flukey and Dietz were both available. Would love to have seen the Reds select one of these guys…especially Flukey. But alas they choose yet another shortstop (actually two, since they chose another in the second round). Reds have several shortstops ahead of both these players who will remain at shortstop, yet they continue to draft them insisting these players can be taught to move to another position down the line.
Very dissapointing!
I think they saw a Elly De LaCruz replacement, period. There were teams that made worse picks (mostly random HS SS’s or slow, no fielding, low power contact hitters). It’s not even a top 15 pick so it’s not a big value risk and for a small market you have to “go big” but it’s highly likely he never helps this team. So few pitchers went that there was probably value there.
This has the feel of a horrible pick. There were pitchers available and can we please ban the word athlete when drafting? Maybe replace that with Basball player or Hitter? Once again, this looks like an obvious failure. It’s as if taking long shots and projects is the plan. I just don’t understand most moves that they make. I keep telling myself that there’s something that I’m not seeing. It’s not that, it’s just that the organization is just wacky and incompetent.
I HATE when someone refers to someone as a “baseball player” in a scouting report. It usually only applies to one specific group of players. It also usually means that they aren’t all that good but plays hard.
I’m fine with athlete remaining in the scouting reports. It actually means something. It doesn’t mean everything.
This draft was very notably very pitching poor. Like historically poor at the top and with very little depth beyond that.
Do you hate it when Tito refers to Spencer Steer as a “baseball player” when he has repeatedly used that term to describe Steer or are you just referring to prospects?
When I hear “baseball player”, I think of someone who does the fundamentals of baseball well, the little things that the “athlete” might not do but is their only because of their physical attributes.
A baseball player can usually do the little things that go a long way, that’s how I view it anyways.
Low average and strikes out. Should fit right in.
I just don’t like it. It was obvious what this team’s weakness is right now. . .hitters. And, simply put, they didn’t draft a hitter.