There’s been a whole lot of talk, both in the local media and from fans alike, about how the Cincinnati Reds need to go into yet another rebuild and try to win again at some point in the future rather than in the near-term as the 2026 season seems all but over before the All-Star break is even upon us.
There are a few issues with another rebuild, and the first is that anyone that the team can trade away right now who are close to free agency aren’t going to bring back much in trade that is likely to be a difference maker down the line. The players who will bring back the young, high-upside players you want to at least think of rebuilding for as guys who are under contract with the Reds for 3+ years – Elly De La Cruz, Hunter Greene, Chase Burns, Sal Stewart, etc. Trading someone under control to rebuild who is still going to be around in 2029 doesn’t make a ton of sense in 2026. You are basically saying that you don’t believe your rebuild will be ready in the next three plus years.
But another big part of the issue with a rebuild is that the farm system just isn’t that good right now. Baseball America just released their updated farm system rankings and they placed the Cincinnati system at #25 overall. That is significantly lower than every other organization within the division. The next closest team is the Chicago Cubs at #16. The Milwaukee Brewers, the best team in the division, also happen to have the best farm system in baseball according to Baseball America. St. Louis comes in at the #6 spot. To read the strengths and weaknesses for each system you will need a subscription, but if you have one or want to get one, here’s the link to the piece.
As an expert on the Reds farm system (did I just call myself that? Yes. But I think the claim holds up well under any scrutiny.) I will say that the farm system isn’t bare. But it’s also got some really concerning issues with it, too. Prospect player wise there are some guys in the upper levels who are either legitimate top prospects or at least guys who should be useful big leaguers. In the lower levels you have some guys with high potential who just haven’t really been around long enough to become guys you should feel comfortable saying in two or three years will not only be in the big leagues but productive in them.
But when it comes to pitching you get into a real head scratching situation. Cincinnati has had 14 pitchers make 10+ starts in the farm system this year in the minor leagues. Two of them have an ERA under 4.50. One of those guys is in the most pitcher friendly league in the minors (and in Single-A Daytona) with a 4.18 ERA and the other guy is 23-year-old Jose Acuna with a 3.40 ERA that has mostly come in Double-A, but has one Triple-A start under his belt this season. Neither guy is someone I would consider to be a “big stuff” guy, with Acuna averaging 91.7 MPH on his fastball in his one start with the Bats this season and Sheng-En Lin averaging 90.8 MPH this year.
The cupboard is very bare when it comes to starting pitching on the farm. When the year began there were eight pitchers in the Reds Top 25 Prospects. One of those guys was there on a technicality – Rhett Lowder. The others were Chase Petty, Julian Aguiar, Aaron Watson, Mason Morris, Sheng-En Lin, Jose Franco, and Zach Maxwell. Among the group I would argue that only Aaron Watson hasn’t had his stock fall in that time. Watson, last year’s 2nd round draft pick, has thrown 22.2 innings in his career and has never pitched in A-ball. Petty has essentially been moved to the bullpen, Maxwell continues to struggle to throw strikes, Lowder pitched poorly and is at least temporarily in the bullpen as a result…. you are getting the point.
Things are not looking great right now for Cincinnati. Not in the big leagues. Not on the farm.
Did the organization overvalue some of these guys or did the organization fail to develop legitimate prospects? Is this a result of the Reds skimping on investing adequate financial resources in player development, scouting, etc.? I don’t know.
Either way, this is information that doesn’t exactly paint Nick Krall in a favorable light.
Doug, you do a great job reporting on the Reds minor leagues, you are an expert.
Some of the players we traded away a few years ago brought back some players that are currently playing in GABP. I do think we need a “soft rebuild” and the answer to that is Elly. We have to trade him this off season, Elly came out of nowhere and is a gift to the Reds. The Reds will never be able to afford Elly anyway. Hopefully HG has a good second half so we can trade him, he is to injury prone. Sign Sal and Burns to extensions build around them.
I’ve not been a proponent of trading Elly since he is signed through 2029, but if the Reds are not going to build around him, from a competitive standpoint, it makes little sense to keep him around a whole lot longer. I suspect they will keep him though as a marketing tool. He gives some fans reasons to watch, show up, and purchase merch, even if the Reds are laying eggs on the field. He’s a franchise player, and perhaps a future hall of famer, and yet the Reds have blown it by not capitalizing on this rare opportunity to build a competitive team around an electric athlete who has MVP caliber talent. What a joke.
Yep, 100% correct.
The correct move right now is to trade Elly. Elly and his agent Scott Boras have made it very clear that as soon as he’s able, he’s hitting free agency and going to the highest bidder. That will not be the Reds.
Realistically, the Reds are in no position to compete for Elly’s last 3 years here, so the logical answer is to trade him as soon as possible to get the best possible return.
Along those lines, trading Greene, Abbott, Lodolo, Steer, Bleday, Dunn, and Lowe also makes sense, as all of them are going to be too old by the time the Reds’ next competitive window rolls around in 3-4 years. All of those players are 27 or older.
Keep Burns, Lowder, Sal, Marte, Petty, Phillips, Williamson, and Arroyo. Everyone else can go for the right package.
But, as I’ve said many times, I REALLY don’t trust Krall to be the one to do this.
If you trade Elly, you may as well trade Greene and Abbott while you are at it and don’t expect to compete any time before 2030. That is a full tear down.
Yes, a full teardown is what is needed.
No more half measures, Walter.
I say wait on Elly. The next CBA may change the landscape in terms of how players look at long-term deals; or how teams budget for them.
OTOH, the CBA may stick it to the Reds, and some provisions of it may drag EDLC’s trade value. So I guess there’s no way to know quite yet.
Hey MFG.
Agreed 100%. Sooner we trade Elly the better the return. It’s very much more than clear this club is going nowhere with him. All the wasted years with him on the club are a testament to that. Hopefully before years end Hunter can rebuild his value and I would trade him in the off season as well provided there is much buying or selling during the strike/negotiations.
The World Cup has been fun, right?
There are three ways to add good players to a team – develop, trade or buy. Almost all the top “develop” options are/ were in Cincinnati, many under performing or now gone. There’s little stock to trade from, and Ownership won’t spend money. It’s time for a new hitting coach and a new hitting approach (see 18 K’s, yesterday). But otherwise the next couple of years look bleak. And that’s a shame for a team with five all-stars including three starting pitchers. At the very least let’s see Marte and Arroyo in the starting lineup every day, let’s get Blake Dunn healthy again, and somebody figure out where JJ Bleday’s production went. Oh and I know this is silly but if we’re going to be watching a lousy team please bring back Will Benson in place of TJ Friedl – at least Benson was fun to root for.
Doug you do an amazing job reporting on this team we love, and tracking the minor league players. I so appreciate it. But since May this has been a tough season to get excited about. So thanks for the bad news even if we already suspected and didn’t want to hear it. You’re still the best!
The Reds still have a fanbase that blames the hitting coach. Thats 1,360th on the “problems with this organization” list.
@Justin
I agree. I mean sure clean house. Fire the hitting coach when you do, but if firing the hitting coach is all you do, then you haven’t done much.
Hey Justin T.
Perhaps they are the younger fans who have not had the privilege of being a long time Reds fan who for over 30 years have mostly had to endure mediocre or poor teams who have not come close to a WS since 1990. That’s a lot of really bad hitting coaches.
“We’ll get em next year” is a poster hanging on every wall in every Reds owner since 1991.
Tell us about the 1,359 Red’s problems that are more important than replacing the hitting coach.
Has the hitting coach been fired?
Once again we are at Defcom 2 because the hitting coach failed to prevent all those talented Reds hitters from striking out against one of the best pitchers in MLB!
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not blaming the hitting coach. I was making the point that the prospects for this team to improve by development, trade or free agency are so low that the best thing the team could do to improve besides a couple lineup adjustments is trying something different as a hitting philosophy or approach. When rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic is your best option you know things are bad.
The league strikeout rate was 12.9% in 1975. 16.2% in 1995. And 22.1% today. I guess we just have a bunch of incompetent hitting coaches? Or, is the increase in velocity, spin and movement on pitches and emphasis on hitting HRs causing the increased K rates?
The Reds have the 3rd-most strikeouts in baseball. The two teams that have struck out more both have played two additional games. If the Reds struck at their team-average rate for those two games, they would be leading the majors in Ks. They have the second-worst team batting average in baseball. They are 25th (of 30) in OBP. They are 24th (of 30) in slugging percentage. They are 24th (of 30) in OPS, hitting at a sub-.700 rate. They are 26th (of 30) in runs scored. They aren’t facing the Zach Wheelers of the world every night. They are one or two fingernails away from falling into the abyss. Honestly, can things get any worse? Changes are in order. Now.
There are so many factors that lead to the increased strikeout rates. Obviously it’s the velocity and the spin rates that make things break sharper. Being able to slow down video at 1000 frames per second that are focused on the hand as a pitcher releases the ball to show them what they are doing and also what they should be doing instead in order to get the desired result is basically magic compared to having to just go out and try it 5000 times in the bullpen and hope you can “figure it out”.
But one thing that is so often overlooked is just how many pitchers guys have to face. We all seem to understand that the more you see a pitcher the better you hit them. That applies within the same game as well as just in a season.
Ted Williams played 21 seasons in Major League Baseball. During that time he only faced 447 different pitchers.
Players in 2026 will face half that many this year, on average, if they play a full season. James Wood, who has one full season, and two half-seasons under his belt, has already faced more pitchers in his career than Ted Williams did.
Teams have precise and detailed scouting reports on exactly what pitches guys hit and don’t hit, and which locations they can and can’t hit those pitches at. Past scouting reports would say things like “struggles against the change up” or “can’t hit the high velocity fastball”. Now it’s “can’t hit the 96 MPH fastball up and in but will crush it if it’s in the middle of the zone or lower, particularly on the inner half”.
It is just so much more difficult to hit today than ever before. And for 9,000 different reasons before the ball is even put in play, where defenses are better than they’ve ever been (not necessarily because of athletic ability, though maybe it’s that, too – but because teams know precisely where you are likely to hit a ground ball and a fly ball based on the types of pitches the guy throwing to you attacks hitters – not just a generalized “he’s a pull hitter” kind of stuff).
Yes the World Cup has been fun. Till US made in political
Yeah, it kinda ruined things for me too, but I am still watching. My wife is British so I am rooting for England.
Last year we went to Columbus and watched a friendly match between Man City and Chelsea both of the Premier League. In the match, Erling Haaland scored three quick goals. I became a fan of his that day. So, if Norway beats England I won’t be too disappointed.
@votoforlife. I have no dog in the fight but I will jump on your bandwagon. Go England
How did the United States make the World Cup political?
So the solution to improve the poor hitting and pitching is to fire the hitting and pitching coaches throughout the organization and hire new coaches?
What about the coaches that have helped Chase Burns, Elly de la Cruz, Sal Stewart should they be fired to?
Uh, I guess it is about having TALENTED ball players not coaches.
No excuse for where this organization currently is. One of the worst (if not the worst) team in the league with one of the worst farm systems also. Thats really hard to pull off.
Just read the interview w C Trent the other day and Krall’s answers were
a mix of arrogance and delusion. The Castillini’s biggest mistake was putting him in charge. He has set this franchise back half a decade with his “philosophies” and draft strategies. A baseball fan off the street could get the same results if not better. The purge of 2022 returned no starting caliber players. Again, hard to pull off. Not to mention the FA signings.
It is not even believable at this point how bad he has been and its clear noone knows any better in that organization or he would’ve never been allowed to do this.
Exactly. It’s a well below average organization with poor ownership and management. There is no way this team has a chance to compete for the World Series without a salary cap. Last year was likely the peak for this team as it stands.
Hey DonHo97.
Agreed 100% with one point. You are being polite with the word poor.
JustinT….There is iron in your words. Krall, Director of Baseball operations, does not seem to know as much about baseball as he should. The evidence is the bad trades, the bad signings (not all) and the overall bad management of personnel. And to think how happy we all were in early April this year.
Sad.
Very troubling trend for the Reds. Where do we go from here?
My honest guess is that Phil Castellini will not fire Nick Krall or Meador. I throw up my hands in dismay.
Hey David.
You are correct they probably will not fire Krall or Meador. Ownership are the ones who pay their salaries. Ownership are the ones who decide what type of GM’s they have. The buck stops there literally and
figuratively. It is more than clear to me at least that Krall does what they tell him. Don’t go over what is our decided budget is, get the best players you can scrounge up, enough to placate the fans decade after decade while we make our profit margins.
Makes one wonder how it got this far. In terms of hope for the future, this is as bad as its been in my over 40 years of Reds fandom. I have zero faith in anyone who is calling shots for that organization. From the philosophical aspect and talent evaluation, its not even remotely working. He lacks a feel for the position. The team has given Krall a couple dollars to play with and he comes back in a worse situation that what he started in (Hayes and Candelario are just 2 examples). The disastrous trades, specifically the Lux deal. Now we get to watch the Sirota kid his entire career knowing what may have been. He is EXACTLY what the team needs.
The Krall interview in the Athletic was truly eye opening, Id suggest reading it. Nothing personal against the guy, he is just way over his head with this job.
I don’t know about that. Krall seemed to be right on Chase Burns when everyone here wanted Condon. I don’t recall anyone complaining about signing Suarez or Moustakas when it actually happened. Heck, people here were even championing for the Phillies version of Castellanos when it was obvious he was done. People can have a gripe about the KBH trade but that seemed like a calculated gamble.
It always easy to be a genius after the fact.
So in other words , part of the last rebuild didn’t work in bringing any value in pitching back. I gave posted for weeks that the organization rot is not just in the majors but in all levels. For a team that values pitching and defense the pitching is close to a disaster. Points to bad scouting, bad development and I think an ability to sign. I think the Reds are cheaping out on players the sign hoping “the system “ will develop them into major league talent. Also I think some of Kyle S. comments are disturbing. During his talk with the Reds he asked about future direction. Must not have been impressed with the answer.
Nick Castellanos also expressed bewilderment at how the Reds’ front office operates.
The good news keeps on coming. 🙂 Life as a Reds’ fan is never easy. Changes are needed.
We can blame the ownership because problems start the top. I don’t know if it’s about money. Whatever the issue is they are the only ones who can fix it by hiring the right people. I make no bones about it when I say our hitting and pitching coaches are incompetent here and in the minors.
Yep, you can hire and fire the manager, hire and fire GMs, trade away valuable pieces to acquire minor league/MLB ready talent, and hire and fire hitting coaches, but as long as there is a Castellini running the show, the high end of mediocrity is your ceiling.
I’m not one to blame the coaches for the failures of the team exclusively, but they do play a part….and any good organization should be seeking any competitive advantage regardless. In addition to being terrible at the big things (2nd in walks allowed, 29th in hits offensively) this team is terrible at the little things—-secondary leads, bunting at only strikes, pitcher footwork on pickoffs, outfield positioning with 2 strikes….
Some of this is on the coaching, and if winning matters, then accountability must not end with the players.
If one were to look around the league you would find many teams that are not hitting and or not pitching well. I guess there are many bad hitting and pitching coaches out there. Fire them all!
Moving forward, every day not focused on 2027 is a day wasted. A team that’s 29th in hits and 24th OPS with 2 strikes is not about to go on a 16-5 run in the 21 games before the trade deadline. Time to take your medicine. To that end, yes, a soft rebuild is the responsible thing to do and one that could reinvigorate the farm system.
Lodolo will net a top 50 prospect.
Bleday will net a top 100 prospect.
Steer + a reliever will net a top 100 prospect.
Stephenson + Burke + Moll will net a top 5 prospect for a playoff bound team.
Singer + Geno + Antone will net a top 5 prospect for a playoff bound team if you eat salary.
Smart moves will keep the core of the team intact, but we’ll have to hold our nose while watching the rest of the year. I mean, the writing is on the wall for Hayes to play out the string at third after the deadline….hopefully HRod gets 200ABs, Petty gets 12 starts, and these prospects you pick up get their feet wet…..
I doubt either Lodolo or Bleday bring back a top 100 prospect. Same with Steer. Most of those other guys will be lucky to bring back a top 20 guy from other teams farm systems.
I like the way you think Sultan, but if we do net these top 50 and 100 prospects, can you make sure they arent second baseman or players that are damn good at 1 position and not “capable” of playing 5 or 6??
You might be overrating the Reds players but the trade idea is good in hope that they will receive a player or two that is vastly underrated.
Just another indictment of the Reds’ organization. There prospect selection and player development are atrocious. It’s time for the grownups in the Reds’ ownership (do they have any?) to clean house. No more Krall, Meador, Johnson, et al. Between Tito and the ownership, fire them all and start over. That’s the rebuild that needs to happen first.
I think one of the big reasons why the BRM teams of the 1970s were so successful in the 1970s is that the Reds had a strong farm system in the 1960s. Key trades, yes. But the foundation was the Reds farm system headed up by Phil Seghi.
Anecdotal example. In 1963 the Reds AAA club in San Diego sent Deron Johnson up to the majors. In 1964 San Diego sent Tony Perez up to the Reds. In 1965 they sent Lee May up. Three straight years, their San Diego AAA team developed an excellent “slugging” 1B.
Real success beyond the occasional WC appearance requires a combination of player development and bold but wise trades. The 1990 team exemplifed that.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/1990.shtml about half of the Top 12 position players were acquired by trade. More than half of the Top 10 pitchers were acquired by trade.
But your point is well made. A strong farm system is the cornerstone of a good franchise. The 1970 Reds are the poster boys for that.
So where is the majority of the blame fall? It is either Scouting (The Reds has to be awful) or Player development which is coaching at the lower levels. Have we hired or fired anybody in the scouting organization over the last few years?
Combination of terrible trades (Sirota+Comp A for Lux, Stafura and Serewinowski for Hayes), injuries to high pick pitchers (Floyd (Comp A 2023), Holman (Comp B 2024), Hollan (Rd 3 2023), Schoenwetter (Rd 4 2023), Smith (Rd 5, 2024), fast graduations (Burns, Lowder), and maybe a few whiffs.
The 2025 draft is looking strong so far, but when the top 2 picks are HS guys, it’s going to be a while. But Steele Hall, Aaron Watson, Eli Pitts (another HS guy), Kien Vu, and Ty Doucette have all been doing well this year. We really need a similarly good draft this weekend, I still think we go pitching heavy in first 5 rounds with a couple bat prospects thrown in. Something like:
18. Taylor Rabe/Cameron Flukey/Tegan Kuhns (College arms)
58. Bo Holloway/Jensen Hirschkorn/Blake Bryant/Denton Lord (HS arms)
70. Rocco Maniscalco/Archer Horn/Blake Bowen/Ethan Bass/Noah Wilson (HS bats)
94. Jaxon Willits/Dee Kennedy/Tyson Leblanc/Carson Kerce (College SS)
122. Jason DeCaro/Trey Beard/Ryan Mahorn/Kyle Johnson (College arms)
154. Tommy Lapour/LJ Mercurius/Cal Scolari/Duncan Marsten(College arms)
If we came out of this weekend with something like Rabe, Holloway, Bass, Willits, DeCaro, and Mercurius, I would be thrilled. Maybe a college bat at 70 instead of a HS one if one I like is still there and try to get another HS arm down the line.
Different sport and a long time ago, but someone once asked Houston Oilers FB coach Bum Phillips what his team’s top 3 problem areas were.
He replied, Offense, Defense, and Special Teams.
That’s because they didn’t have a hitting coach…. ?
No. Different sport but they didn’t have GOOD PLAYERS at the time. The Reds don’t have many good players right now, either.
How do you mention organizational pitching and not mention Kyle McCoy? One of the few success stories pitching on the farm has had this year. He only doesn’t meet your starts requirement because he piggybacked some this year, but in 58.1 IP he has a 3.03 ERA and has been even better in Dayton than he was in Daytona.
In Low A Daytona:
7 games (3 starts)
23.3 IP
3.80 ERA
1.56 WHIP
24 K vs 12 BB
In High A Dayton:
8 games (6 starts)
35.2 IP
2.52 ERA
1.07 WHIP
40 K vs 15 BB
Fastball sits around 94, touches 96, can throw both his slider (82-83) and changeup (85-96) for strikes and his control has been improving as the season goes along. In his last two games he has 17 Ks vs 3 BB in 9.2 IP. Not bad for a 2025 8th rd pick out of a B1G school.
I thought McCoy was a baseball writer silly me
What is the draft like next year?
Next years draft might be the strongest of this decade. If Sal can win rookie of the year and Burn finish top 3 in Cy Young voting we could potentially add two more Comp A picks in addition to the Comp A pick we get next year for being a small market (we get a Comp B for that this year after rd 2). That could be 4 top 40 picks. That’s the kind of thing we need to rebuild this system. If we could trade for comp picks with this sell off, that would be good too, but we need to do it now if we want one for this years draft.
Not sure how you don’t mention the monumental failure of trading Mike Sirota (No. 12 overall for BA) and last years #41 overall pick (Comp A) for Gavin Lux. That severely hurt the farm system. The Dodgers turned that into now top 100 prospect Charles Davalan.
Ugh! It falls right in line. The problem for years is that the FO won’t commit. They’ve used the same PR statement since the deadly 2015 trades. “We want to build for the future while staying competitive now.” And so, the returns (not all, but far too many) have been a combination of borderline major leaguers and career minor leaguers.
I think the lesson to learn here is to never trade with the Dodgers.
Once again, this organization has put itself in a really bad spot–worst team in their division coupled with the worst minor league in the division. The Reds have some of the best talent on the major league team they’ve had in this century. It’s time for a rebuild of the front office, scouting, and player development departments built from the best young baseball ops talent available from other organizations.
They need to hire an up and coming talent from outside the organization and hope we can strike gold, someone where it’s their first GM job because we aren’t paying for experience talent, we all know that.
Yes, please, a true national search.
Fair or unfair, avoid hiring the ‘deserved’ or otherwise favored in-house candidates, as part of the problem is our house isn’t working.
But they did a national search and found David Bell. lol 😀
I’m SURE they looked hard and long. haha
“It’s time for a rebuild of the front office, scouting, and player development departments built from the best young baseball ops talent available from other organizations.”
One might consider that to be a whopper of an understatement.
I strive to be understated.
Given the facts of this article (I know, some Reds fans insisted the farm system was loaded), why would we even suggest that the same people responsible should start a rebuild? That’s like asking someone who constructed a rotting shack to remodel a house. It’s also why in no way whatsoever would I trade Elly or anyone of long-term value. The return, like the trade returns of the past 13 years, would make us cry. Get a new team of architects. Come up with an actual plan.
That’s definitely a good reason to not do a full fire sale, but still trade off the pending free agents and maybe look at non-core members like Lodolo and Steer if the return is good.
Yep, definitely collect on pending FAs. I’m all for seeing what Lodolo could bring (thought so last November), but have zero trust in the Reds’ decision makers. Solid organizations like the Dodgers (as stated above) know how to sweet talk the Reds while fleecing them.
I argued we last year we should have traded Lodolo at last years trade deadline. I said at the time his value will never be higher than it was then, and I think time has so far proven me right on that. Maybe we don’t make the playoffs without him, but we got crushed by the Dodgers anyway. We all knew we weren’t a World Series level team last year.
“why would we even suggest that the same people responsible should start a rebuild?”
Exactly.
Well, they have the draft this weekend, and they are going to need to make about 4-5 deadline trades/salary dumps immediately thereafter. Hiring a new president of baseball operations and GM at this time of year is not feasible. It pretty much has to be done in the off-season.
Fortunately, most of the trades will be salary dumps, like trades of Singer and Suarez and probably Pierce Johnson and Caleb Ferguson. Steer and Stephenson might fetch something of value, but nothing elite. The only contract with real trade value is that of Lodolo, but he will need a couple of decent outings to firm up his value. Some team will give some decent prospects for Lodolo.
I keep Bleday. He’s cheap and under two more years of control. If Hector Rodriguez is ready to replace him next year, then trade Bleday in the offseason.
The Angels just did precisely that
If you can get something of real value for Bleday, trade him now. Hector has spent just about a full year in AAA at this point, and is on pace for 30+ HR if he stays in AAA.
I can understand why some want a full rebuild. The problem with it is MLB doesn’t reward losing like it used to. The Reds won’t be able to hoard top 5 draft picks the way the Astros did 10 years ago.
The other problem with a rebuild is if the Reds go full rebuild what happens when these prospects make it to the Majors? The Castellinis won’t spend money to augment the team when the prospects are major league ready.
If the Reds decide to rebuild they will need to clean house first. It makes no sense to let the same group who blew the most recent rebuild to try again. This organization is a mess.
We need to sell, but not tear down:
Definitely should go for whatever we can get (8):
Tyler Stephenson
Nathaniel Lowe
Eugenio Suarez
Brady Singer
Brock Burke
Caleb Ferguson
Pierce Johnson
TJ Friedl
You make available, but need a decent return (3):
JJ Bleday
Nick Lodolo
Sam Moll
Matt McLain (shouldn’t be expensive next year, versatile 2B,SS,3B,CF)
Noelvi Marte
Would consider it, but it needs to be a lot (2):
Spencer Steer
Jose Trevino (catcher depth is tough to find)
You would need to pay handsomely, multiple top 100 prospects (1):
Andrew Abbott
Please take this contract from us (2):
Ke’Bryan Hayes
Emelio Pagan
Untouchable:
Chase Burns
Sal Stewart
Elly De La Cruz
Hunter Greene
Rhett Lowder
Not interested in trading:
Edwin Arroyo
Tony Santillan (I think he’ll be better next year with a healthy offseason)
Post of the day. Thanks for the realistic take. Good stuff.
Yep, good plan @Duke.
Good post. I’d probably have Stephenson in the 2nd category at least though. Catching is hard to find and he’s been producing at a bit higher level recently.
Great post Duke for sure.No two ways about it the Reds are in trouble and I don’t mean this year.I might add it needs to start right now today and not wait until the trade deadline.
Stephenson is a free agent at the end of the year. He likely isn’t open to a one year extension and I’m not giving him a $20+ qualifying offer because he’ll accept that immediately. He’s gone after this year, no reason to keep him.
@Duke. A reds front office job is waiting on you
Id hire you Duke! The “please take the contract” category is a couple of contracts they signed or acquired in the last 12 mos too. It’s just mind numbing.
Pretty solid, but Hunter Greene wouldn’t be in my untouchable list due to his health, and the return the Reds could receive potentially if they traded him at a high value.
Most trades that are for prospects for established players are won by the team acquiring the established players. There are outlier deals of course but the majority turn out in favor of the team who gets the non prospects in the deal. One of the guys at Baseball America wrote about it recently.
Brian that is true. It’s amazing when you look at most deadline deals over time how few prospects really pan out. I think you have to trade one of the big guns, Greene, maybe Abbott, to receive prospects that may pan out, but even then it’s a bit of a gamble. The sad reality is trading all these relievers, or Suarez, Lowe, etc. most likely won’t result in players that help the Reds. But I guess if you trade all of them, 8-10 players or so plus one big name, perhaps you’ll hit on a few players that help in return for the future.
Good list, but I don’t think I’d have Stewart and Lowder as untouchables. Would definitely be wiling to trade Arroyo.
Duke, two untouchable I don’t agree with, EDLC and Greene. EDLC you know will not sign with the Reds so if the RIGHT deal comes along I would make it. Greene injury situation concerns me, each year he’s been injured they say he’ll be healthy next year and it happens all over again.
Good Plan, The Duke; finally a good realistic take
Unsurprising. It’s the main why I suggested that Graham may already be the #3 prospect in the Reds system despite his age and lack of consistent results.
It’s also why the Reds need to be aggressive sellers at the deadline to replenish the Farm System especially ahead of a likely lockout next year.
Nick Krall is indefensible .
Just wait. Some of his staunchest (and rudest) defenders are still trying to find the right words to defend him while criticizing anyone who doesn’t.
I’ve been a Krall defender in the past, and he has done some good things while here, but he has also made the bone headed mistakes that have crippled what should be the Elly run of competition. For those bone headed mistakes, I agree it’s time to move on.
I think the failure to replenish the minor league system will complete the trifecta for Krall and company.
Poor signings, some significant losses in trades, and now the minor league system in free fall should probably be the bell tolling for this management group.
Tasked with building a program, they have done the opposite; what seemed ascendent under Dick Williams now seems squandered.
Throw in his lack of competency in public relations and, well, it’s time.
I think Dave and Duke here are correct. In a vacuum, lots of the move the FO has made under Krall seemed defensible or even savvy when they were made. Unfortunately, the results haven’t panned out. Someone’s going take the fall, and it’s starting to look disastrous enough that the buck stops at the top this time.
If you critically analyze his trades and signings it’s a pretty poor record. Honestly he should never be allowed to trade with the Dodgers again. Dodgers are playing 4D Chess and Krall is players checkers…
Call the Tampa Bay Rays front office and get some good advice!!Going tonight to watch two real ball teams play at the Trop,not wasting my money on the double AA Reds
2026 Rays m.o. – pitchers who get soft contact, hitters who have shown they can succeed *while* making soft contact (one of their misfires was trading for $5.5M of Gavin Lux but he’s the type they’ve targeted), and Junior Caminero. Moneyball lives.
The Reds have hardly anybody who matches any of those descriptions. We let Martinez, Suter and (Barlow) walk and bet the bullpen on 00…
“The Milwaukee Brewers, the best team in the division, also happen to have the best farm system in baseball according to Baseball America.”
They just beat us up in every way it would seem. I reiterate, the way the Reds have been doing business has FAILED. It time for new blood OUTSIDE of the organization.
The Brewers would be a starting a dynasty right now if the league had competitive balance with a cap and tight floor beneath it. Instead, they always come up short in the playoffs because they keep trading away their expensive players.
Still much rather be in there shoes as I’m sure you would too.
their *
Draft a college bat, a basher then pitching but grab a bat first. Pitching does you no good when you lose 2-1 , 3-0. might as well be 12-0. Get offense.
The only college power bat the might be there at 18 is Ace Reese, and he’s a 1B or DH as a pro.
Unfortunately, it will take a lot more than a draft to turn things around.
Quiz, without researching, when was the last time a minor league team in the Reds organization won a league championship?
I’m wild guessing Pensacola Blue Wahoos in FSL a few (plus) years ago.
Good guess, but Pensacola won as an affiliate of the Miami Marlins.
Answer is the 2014 Billings Mustangs and before that 2001 Louisville Bats. Too few and far between.
The affiliates have not been good for a long time. Very few players that were drafted or signed by the Reds as amateurs have experienced being on a championship team. We’ve been in the playoffs as first half or second half winners, but have mostly failed to win the big one.
I understand that development is very important in the minors, but putting more emphasis on winning, to me, is just as important. Breed winners in the minors.
Thanks for participating!
Maybe the Reds should start scouting this league.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/baseball/women-s-pro-baseball-league-unveils-team-nicknames-and-logos-ahead-of-inaugural-season/ar-AA27u1C3?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=DCTS&cvid=6a4e773f1a244342808d01658c37f0f4&ei=30
A women’s professional baseball league will start on August 1st, and end sometime in September. Springfield, Illinois will host this venue. San Franscisco, Los Angeles, New York and Boston will be the 4 clubs.
Remember, Ladies, there is no crying in baseball.
hey, i live about half hr away from Springfield. i ought to take the grandkids, all girls to a game.
What do you think of the front office’s execution?
I’m in favor of it
I have not seen the attendance records this year but I know attendance was up for the Reds the last year or two. This was mainly because of Elly and the potential for winning. And it was a mirage. Ownership, nor the front office, are serious about going for a championship. This is all about looking ok. It helps them make money.
We’re stuck with ownership until they sell. They are not interested in winning at all. It’s obvious.
The front office just does what they’re told. It’s an agreement to just look competitive – nothing more. That’s what we are getting out of peak years for Elly and others.
We could also blame Hunter and Lodolo for never being healthy enough to lead a staff too.
But look at the trades. Look at the development. I would argue our #1’s got to where they are despite everything -not because of it.
The pitching philosophy is a failure. Copying everyone else on hitting has produced a failure as well. And we don’t run or play D.
We have 2 legitimate All-Stars and 2 more, if healthy, are no doubt All-Stars. That is not bad. There no veterans that have won a championship around this core at all. There is way too much bargain basement hunting.
It is unrealistic to copy the Big Red Machine. But duplicating what the 1990 and 1995 Reds did is realistic. Ownership, and by virtue of their influence, the front office has failed.
Tito is great and creates a “Never Give Up” attitude, but you cannot win games where we strike out half the time, walk everybody under sun, and play below average defense. But hey, a couple of guys had exit velos over a hundred so it’s all good.
You can blame ownership and they certainly deserve some but the Reds aren’t exactly running out the cheapest team in the league right now. They have invested dollars but just in very poor ways (Candelario, Hayes, etc.).
Doug, very interesting article. I’ve been kind of sensing that the farm system is really down and the other day was looking for updated info on where they currently are ranked and could only find info from earlier this year when I think they were ranked like 12th maybe? But wow, 25th, yikes…
The Reds are in a precarious situation as far as current and future success. I’m flip flopping between they need to do a big tear down, to maybe do more of a soft rebuild and try and compete in 2027 again. I think my concern is with the current front office that I’m not sure they could be successful at the soft rebuild or a tear down.
I’m afraid they are going to go the safe route, and hold onto most of this core, and then be forced to rebuild in 2027/2028 when it doesn’t work again, and won’t be able to get full value in trades, and you could be looking at a team that isn’t competitive into 2030 and beyond, one of those 2014-2019 type of spans.
Part of the downfall in that 2014-2019 and even beyond with a few decent teams over .500 is they didn’t receive hardly any players for Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, Aroldis Chapman, Johnny Cueto, Todd Frazier, if I remember correctly that ever really played consistently on the Reds?
Just think if they had received 3-4 players from those trades that were good Major Leaguers, even that could have helped turn things around a little quicker.
Trivial trivia: There is a One and Only World Famous Life Size Bobblehead Hall of Fame. It is located in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. You might be wondering why this would be of interest to a Reds fan. It just so happens that Brandon Phillips is a member of that immaculate institution.
https://baseballsociologist.wordpress.com/2025/07/16/the-one-only-world-famous-life-size-bobblehead-hall-of-fame/
Reds team is one of the worst in baseball
Reds farm system is one of the worst in baseball
Reds hitting coaching staff is one of the worst in baseball
Reds Front Office is one of the worst in baseball
Reds Ownership is one of the worst in baseball
Anything else?
Can they do something well actually?
They do well at having a lot of bobblehead nights.
I do have shelves full of Reds’ bobbleheads. They know how to get me. 🙂
haha I noticed the past several years when attending a bobblehead game that a lot of “collectors” pick up their bobblehead and go home. lol
I sold virtually all of my bobbleheads last year. Taking up too much room/space. 🙂
@Melvin, I’ve thought about selling mine but unfortunately I’m a hoarder and not a good seller. Ha ha! I too have noticed the people showing up to get the bobbleheads and leave without watching a single out of the game. That is pretty bad! lol
best comment on this thread
Folks I hate to be the one to tell you this, but those people weren’t leaving to go home with their bobbleheads, they were leaving so they could re-enter with a different ticket to get ANOTHER bobblehead so they could sell it.
Makes sense, Doug. I’ve seen guys with a bag full of them leaving while I’m in line to get in. Must be why I see so many listings on eBay. Sometimes they will have a listing for the bobblehead even before they get it.
“Folks I hate to be the one to tell you this, but those people weren’t leaving to go home with their bobbleheads, they were leaving so they could re-enter with a different ticket to get ANOTHER bobblehead so they could sell it.”
I’ve seen those on Ebay. Even bought and sold some myself. Most of them don’t sell for all that much to be worth it to me. They must love to do it.
I for a while have been critical of the Organizations Pitching leadership and its development under Derek Johnson. When he was hired as coach then given the increased responsibilities of the organization we were told he was the best and it wouldn’t be long before the pitching flourished. How could you go wrong with 5 starting pitchers who are first round draft picks.Yet that dominate team pitching has not materialized. I do believe the Reds approach has kept Dr. Kremcheck in the TJ business.First place I would start before a total teardown is a change there.