The Cincinnati Reds bullpen was very good through the end of April. When the first full month of the season came to an end the Reds had a 3.44 ERA from their relievers. That was the 5th best ERA in baseball among the bullpens. They were keeping the ball in the park quite well.
But there were some warning signs, too. They were walking a ton of batters. Their 14.1% walk rate was the third highest in baseball. They were also getting the second least amount of groundballs in the league. While that isn’t necessarily a bad thing, at times it can cost you – and especially when you play in Great American Ball Park and aren’t giving up home runs despite a ton of fly balls, the odds are probably going to catch up to you.
And did things ever catch up to the Cincinnati bullpen. Since May began they have a lead worst 6.55 ERA. That’s 43 points worse than the next worst team and 96 points worst than the team with the 28th worst bullpen ERA since the start of May. They still aren’t getting groundballs, but they are now giving up home runs on fly balls are a significantly higher rate than any team in baseball. The walk rate? The worst in baseball. Strikeouts? Well, those aren’t the worst in baseball but they have the 9th lowest rate in baseball.
In short, things have been about as bad as they could be. The bullpen has been atrocious since May began. And it’s not like the team hasn’t been trying to find solutions. They have made a bunch of roster moves to try and get new arms in. The problem is that the depth simply isn’t there. Some of that is due to the injuries. Not having Hunter Greene, Brandon Williamson, and Rhett Lowder as starters has pushed other guys up the depth chart that wouldn’t be there. Losing Emilio Pagan was a big blow to the bullpen’s pecking order. Caleb Ferguson just recently returned to the mound after not pitching all season. And then in the minor leagues the team has also been without Julian Aguiar since early April, who is on the 40-man roster and could have potentially been an option.
In the last week they have also lost Pierce Johnson and Graham Ashcraft to the injured list. Ashcraft’s injury is a lot more concerning and he’s going to miss at least two months.
All of that really put a strain on the level of talent that was available to be called on. But even so, the depth in Triple-A was questionable when it came to much of the pitching staff. It was filled with guys who throw 100 MPH with no idea where it’s going or guys that throw 90 MPH who are in their late 20’s to early 30’s. The former are types you like to have around in case they figure it out. The latter are types you like to have around in Triple-A because they can sometimes get the job done there and help the team win and maybe impart some wisdom to the younger guys, but are almost never the guys you want to have to call up to pitch in the big leagues because they just don’t have the stuff.
So with all of that said, the big question is where do the Reds go from here if they want to fix their bullpen woes? And the answer probably isn’t one that’s going to make anyone feel good because the answer is likely they have nowhere to go and no fixes. Teams aren’t going to be trading guys right now that can be expected to be good big league relievers on the mound tonight unless you massively overpay for them. The internal solutions don’t appear to be there. Derek Johnson isn’t a wizard who can wave a wand and use magic.
The most likely answer that could be an actual solution is to simply wait. The Reds need guys to get healthy. Emilio Pagan’s injury looked far worse on the night it happened than it turned out to be. Getting him back will be beneficial. Rhett Lowder is expected back in the rotation this next week, which seems like it’s going to push Chris Paddack to the bullpen. Your mileage may vary on that addition to the bullpen but historically he’s thrown strikes and he’s been solid enough since joining the team as a starter. Julian Aguiar has made several rehab starts in the minor leagues, so he could potentially be an option they look at soon if things don’t get better.
And then there’s Hunter Greene. He’s still a ways from returning, but his addition to the rotation could potentially give the Reds more depth and make for someone in the rotation winding up in the bullpen.
The question is – even if all of that stuff goes right for the Reds, will it be too late? The entire National League Central division remains above the .500 mark. Cincinnati has a lot of games to play against them and has plenty of catching up to do with them, too. Will they be in too much of a hole to climb out of by then?
Just too many injuries in a short period of time to overcome, there’s no other option than sit and wait for their return.
WHEN WILL TREVINO BE BACK?
We need him to close! 🙂
Ok, let’s lighten up. It’s just baseball. A lot of guys are going to get long looks at being in the bullpen.
Rhett Lowder will likely be back pretty soon. Hunter Greene will be back by the end of June. Does Chris Paddack go away? Does Singer go into long relief, and be on standby to start when Burns gets innings-limited out?
Santillian is a mess, and needs to maybe go down to AAA and sort himself out. Maybe he has just lost it.
And I don’t know what is down at AA level, but the cupboard is pretty bare at AAA. Maybe Trevor Kuncl?
Kunci has developed the disease the rest of the system has – walked too many batters. Walked 5 in an inning and a third yesterday. ERA over 5.
I think Santillan is out of options
Time to head to toward the exits. Another meltdown of a season. Probably never reach 500 again this year.
What’s the old story about doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome? As an example last night, Maxwell comes in and his control was on, so let’s try for once leaving him in for a second inning. Instead one great inning then revert back to Santillan after one inning and expect him to be different than the last month. They brought up McCambley who was having a good AAA season and he has yet to pitch for Reds as they would prefer to run the same guys out there who have struggled. There needs to be a CHANGE in the direction of the pitching, organization wide.
McCambley pitched last night. Maxwell did not pitch last night . Not a good example
Picky, picky, picky. 🙂
Seriously (well, maybe), the bullpen is like have a lit stick of dynamite.
Somedays it just blows up in your face. This has to be giving Terry Francona ulcers.
Francona? It’s giving us fans ulcers
Watching Antone pitch makes me wonder if any of those oldish 4A rotation guys might be crafty enough to help out in the pen. And yes, every time TeJay takes to the mound, I wonder if his elbow is going to survive to go again. But he knows the score and works to the max of what he has left to give. That’s what the post 30 y.o. 4A guys might bring too.
I’d like to see Hunter Parks get a shot at some point this year.
Toss him right into the group of “throws hard with no idea where it’s going”. 13 walks in 20 innings so far this season. Four walks in five innings since arriving in Louisville.
Then nothing to lose, just add him to the NSC
Get better pitching coaches that can help our pitchers pitch and not just throw!
Hitting coaches also!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And just where are these better hitting and pitching coaches going to come from? And perhaps give a few names of coaches who would get your seal of approval.
The Reds pitchers do pitch. It boggles my mind that people still say this and it’s mostly coming from the idea that because everyone throws harder now that they aren’t trying to locate or mix pitches up. Pitchers throw fewer fastballs today than EVER. Now, they probably locate pitches worse than ever, too, as a group. But that’s probably due to the fact that they throw far more secondary pitches than ever and far less to do with “they are trying to throw it through a brick wall”.
Sports Info Solutions started tracking pitches in MLB in 2002. That year pitchers threw the fastball 65% of the time. In 2026 pitchers throw the fastball 47% of the time. The game is very different.
G. A. we got it, the Red’s coaches are to blame for holding back all the awesome pitching and hitting talent on this team.
Just curious, is that all you have to offer?
With the CBA on the horizon, I say ride it out this year with what you have and don’t take on any high dollar contracts. Wait til the new CBA settles in and baseball resumes, then see what you have to work with, both money and personnel wise. They are still above .500 and they have pieces coming back. Don’t screw up the future by trying to fix what may not be fixable in the present era of uncertainty.
Questions many there are. Options few we have. Wait and see we must.
You are making my head hurt. 🙂
Thus says Yoda Mark. Problems many do the Reds have.
The force is strong with Mark 🙂
I think @MK nailed it. Change the pitching approach. Focus on throwing strikes where you want the ball to go and less on power and spin. One of the things the MLBPA and the owners should be concerned with is the health of the pitchers across MLB. Too many blown arms. Someone needs to step up and change the paradigm. And the first team that does will reap the benefits. As Gary Albert noted above, get new coaches to support the strategy. Maddux pitched over 5000 innings and walked fewer than 1000 batters. Nolan Ryan, on the other hand, walked nearly 2800 in his 5386 innings. There are a few pitchers comparable to Maddux, but they all tend to be older, e.g., Sale, Gausman. It can be argued that the current focus on power and spin isn’t improving the pitchers’ overall effectiveness, except in a few cases, as much risking their arms and careers. The Reds would be better off with a pitcher that throws 93-94 mph and puts the ball where he wants it than a guy throwing 100 mph who is clueless where the ball is going.
Not much choice but I like the power arm guys but you just live with it when they can’t throw strikes.I think thats 4 scoreless inning in a row for Maxwell so he may walk a bunch the next time out.Injuries mean players get a longer look and sometimes it works out.I go power over finesse anytime from a young pitcher.
Well there are several parts to this story.
Remember when the Reds touted that extra TV money would help them compete (never mind that other teams got extra TV money). This was the answer for 15 years.
Yet – got rid of good relivers because they cost too much.
Rebuild the bullpen completely? Well the Rays have done it in years past and somehow they keep winning.
Injuries – yes, everyone has them, but despite the narrative in the local media for years that the Reds had a good farm system, we see as Doug has pointed out that there is very little depth in the system. That is why the Reds keep recycling pitchers year after year. I know the Reds want to see pitchers develop into starters, but at some point in time you need to realize the development process is flawed or bad scouting (or both). Then try to recognize sooner that the two pitch pitcher is best suited for the bullpen, and groom them for such.
So I’ll give a recent example where a lousy pitcher got much better by moving him to the bullpen after being traded to teams with better pitching approaches.
Luke Weaver. Mediocre starter as a Red. Pretty good reliever for NYY and NYM since 2023. Gerrit Cole taught him a better way to pitch at NYY.
Bad pitchers can become good with a few changes.
Most pitchers get better when they stop starting and start relieving. That’s an easy change to make but then leaves you with some other big problems of not having starting pitchers.
Better starting pitching, better offense, and better coaching decisions I think are the best hope for the Reds to better the current bullpen. Last night for instance, if Suarez gets a 2 out single in the bottom of the 8th the Reds go ahead 3-2 and then maybe Burke comes on instead of Santillan and saves it.
There’s a small margin of error with the current talent on the roster but they still have some potential with their starting pitching, when de la Cruz comes back better offense, to take some pressure off the bullpen.
I feel some urgency about this. The Reds have Elly De La Cruz, Hunter Greene, Chase Burns, Sal Stewart, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Spencer Steer, JJ Bleday, Graham Ashcraft and Matt McLain making a combined $25.7 million this year. Those salaries are going to shoot up soon. This is not the year to get mousy.
If we had sold at the deadline last year, it’s not like Barlow or Suter or indeed Rogers would have fetched much. (All due respect to Ivan Brethowr.) Never mind good relievers – that’s the bin we need to be shopping in. Playable.
fascinating article at The Athletic(paywall) on MLB injuries – doing a deep dive. Reds among the leaders in IL days lost for pitchers from 24-26.
Reds Med staff needs to improve but the gist is that ALL med staffs aren’t doing enough. But as Reds are small market and use younger players, their injuries are more damaging than teams with older and deeper rosters.
I too blame my doctor when I punch a wall and break my hand.
Just hard to believe the lack of depth in the organization. They lack depth at almost every position. The current FO has their fingerprints on the acquisition of nearly every player in the organization. Whenever someone suggests change, the comments are “everyone else does it that way too” or “the game has changed”. At some point you gotta consider changes if you aren’t spending the money those other teams spend. The lack talent in the front office and player evaluation department, its getting hard to even argue that. Look at Scott Barlow now pitching well in Oakland, Nick Martinez could start the All Star game for Tampa Bay. They couldve traded Singer (sold high) and kept Martinez. Sure its hindsight, but the Reds seem to always be on the wrong side of it.
If the Reds were to be able to trade KB Hayes, they would probably have to throw in a top prospect in order for the other team to take on such a contract as Hayes. Less than a year ago the Reds traded FOR Hayes and threw in a legitimate prospect (#77 prospect in baseball), Sammy Stafura, for Hayes. The Pirates probably said “are you sure?” a couple times and laughed before they finalized it. Freed up money for them to sign the Brandon Lowes and O’ Hearnes. They will end up eating Hayes contract and some commenters will actually praise them for getting rid of him and leave out the fact they will eat millions of dollars and gave up prospects in this unmitigated disaster of a trade.
Those moves have caught up with the organization, and here they are. You just cant keep doing things like that and expect success. You can blame the manager and the pitching or hitting coaches all you want, it is the lack of talent in the organization. Nothing will change until those responsible for picking the talent are replaced. Tito is now doing what Bell did, “I’m going to throw Tony Santillan out there because thats what you give me to work with.”
Reds pitcher Tony Santillan has worst WAR rating among relievers–AND that’s in all of Major League Baseball– at -1.1. When asked if they continue running Santillan out late in games Francona said: “We’re at a point where we need some stability so much, and he’s the guy that ? so, we’re gonna have to figure that out,”. “Do we pick our spots a little bit? I mean, we tried to do that before, but with everybody going down, that’s been a little bit more difficult.”
First, Tito should use the relievers with the lowest WHIP at the backend. Santillan should not be pitching after the 7th at the moment. Use Moll, Ferguson, Burke, Antone and McCambley at the backend with Paddack as the long reliever and Maxwell, Mey and Santillan in earlier innings or in games where we are trailing. Closer by committee based on matchups and who’s pitching well. Not necessary to have defined roles. If you’re pitching well, you pitch later in games.
Every year is different, The Reds were banking on Santillian being like last year, which is very far from the case. Can he be sent down to AAA? Also, Reds don’t have luxary of depth for decent pitchers, so when their are injuries to Ashcraft and Johnson, they are doomed. Add the fact that Friedl and MClain are not hitting at all, and the issues with K Hayes not hitting at all, and others not hitting well or hitting once in a while, these are the problems it causes. Reds have to have no injuries and make sure they win games 3-2. But with the injuries, that is not going to happen.
Santillan is out of options.
Also, this suspose to be a rebuilding year for the Cardinals, they can hit. Pirates are better and can hit. Not like the Dodgers, but they can hit. Reds, year after year, cannot hit. This tells me the Reds management and scouts are pretty good at getting decent pitchers, but lousy at getting players that can hit decently.
Cards chose to play younger players.Pirates went out and got several above average career hitters but the defense is pretty bad.Reds stood pat other then Geno but did hit the lottery with Bleday and Lowe.Took awhile for them to see that Bleday can really hit as can Lowe.Hayes and Friedl are gone and more to follow.Reds will either have to blow it up and go with youth or continue to hope players start to hit.No where to go but to the minors if you refuse to pay big bucks for free agents or trade prospects.Its the Reds way.Heck I can watch young players hit under 200 and fan a bunch every game vs older players by 4 or 5 years do the same thing.Its cheaper too.
Losing Hunter Greene was absolutely soul crushing.
If such a loss would be soul crushing, maybe they should have approached the problem differently. Much has been written about the surgery/non-surgery, but losing HG until July at the earliest – in hindsight should never have happened. Your best players need to be ready to play in season.
Totally agree. It was well known that he had particles located on his throwing arm. Did everyone think it would just go away or was FO hoping to get through this season then have surgery later this year?
I recall reading several years ago that the future of pitching was starters going 6, maybe 7 innings, and 1 reliever pitching the last 2-3. That made some sense to me. You wouldn’t waste so many bullpen arms constantly warming up and only pitching 1 inning. That has to take a toll on people like Tony.
It drives me nuts when someone like Ashcraft, who came up as a starter,throws 6 -7 pitches, is successful and then comes out for someone else to pitch the next inning. If he is on, leave him in at least until he’s gone through the lineup once— which could be 3 innings. Yes, he won’t be available tomorrow or maybe even the next day, but everyone else is rested. Tomorrow someone else can pitch the back 3.
Bringing a different person each game in the 7th, 8th and 9th is simply a way of finding each night who DOESN’T HAVE IT and ultimately leads to tired arms over the course of a season or two and injuries.
David Bell did the 6+1+1+1 and so do Tito and others. I just don’t get it.
Have to question hitting and pitching coaches. GM as well. Just have to look at trade Milwaukee made with Red Sox for Harrison. Walks and lack of hitting across the organization say either poor player selection or poor development or simply poor bench coaching.
It’s kind of amazing. We were fooled by the 20-11 start. We shouldn’t have been considering the run differential. Beyond lucky in April. We are all now treated to Nick Krall’s hot mess for the near future. My only hope for the near future is that Joe Burrow stays healthy.
The Reds have had bad luck with injuries. If they can stay above .500 with wins and losses for the next month, my hope is they will finish strong when healthier. I like the potential when this team is healthy. There has just been too many injuries so far. Keep hope alive!
Why not have Chase Petty be a long man in the bullpen.
Reds are in last place
Bullpen is a disaster
Krall and FO wont do anything till late July
Its back to sorting and with Elly out a month its time to let things sort
Is McLain done? He gets another month
Is Arroyo a future piece ?
Is Marte a future piece?
Is Dunn a future piece?
Can lowder get back on track?
Are Steer and Lodolo and Burke big trade pieces if things go sideways very soon?
Does the 2027 lock out foreshadow a big rebuild if the reds are 8 under .500 at the AS break ?
Reds pitching is bad heading to a road trip that could be a big tell
Good stuff as always OS and you are correct.Find out what you have got to work with in the players you named and just play ball.However this is the same leadership that values 70 wins over 68 and cries play offs as long as they have a 1% chance of making it.That way of doing business doesn’t allow young players to have good streaks and bad streaks.Tito alluded to that when they DFA Hinds.When you commit to finding out about young arms and young position players or sorting as you said it can be and will be just awful at times.Reds never commit to fish or cut bait rather trying to do both at the same time.It will be interesting.
The problem is that the bullpen has to pitch 5 or 6 innings a game. The starters rarely go more than 5 or 6, often times less. Complete games are a thing of the past. When the starters come out of spring training they rarely have pitched more than 4 innings. Get more out of your starters and you won’t need 8 relief pitchers on the roster.