After taking the first game of the series the Cincinnati Reds just couldn’t find success over the next two. On Sunday the Cleveland Guardians hit five home runs as they routed Cincinnati 10-3 and picked up a series win.
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds (24-23) | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Cleveland Guardians (26-22) | 10 | 12 | 0 |
| W: Williams (6-3) L: Singer (2-4) | |||
| Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
The Reds went down in order in the top of the 1st inning. Cleveland came out in their half of the inning and didn’t take too much time to get the scoring started. Jose Ramirez drew a 1-out walk and then scored on a 2-out, 2-run home run by Chase DeLauter off of Brady Singer to put the Guardians on top.
Cincinnati would get their own home run two innings later when Elly De La Cruz hit an opposite field solo home run to cut the lead down to a run. But that’s not where the score stayed for very long as the home team picked up two more runs in the bottom of the frame on a 2-run blast from Kyle Manzardo that pushed Cleveland’s lead to 4-1.
The Reds would get one of those runs back in the top of the 4th when they began the inning with three straight singles, with Nathaniel Lowe’s bringing in Spencer Steer to make it 4-2. But they got in their own way after that when Sal Stewart was picked off of second base and TJ Friedl took a called strike three that was several inches out of the zone to end the inning and failed to challenge the call. Bryan Rocchio hit the Guardians third home run of the day off of Brady Singer in the bottom of the inning to take the home team lead to 5-2. In the next inning Kyle Manzardo hit his club’s fourth home run of the day, and his second of the game, off of Brock Burke to push their lead to four runs.
Connor Phillips worked around a double and a walk in the 6th inning. In the 7th inning he wasn’t as lucky. After he walked Steven Kwan with two outs he served up a home run to Angel Martinez as Cleveland extended their lead to 8-2 on their fifth homer of the day. Tejay Antone took over for Cincinnati in the 8th and hit the first batter on his first pitch. Jose Ramirez would then hit the first pitch he saw for a 1-out, 2-run home run to make it 10-2.
The Reds got a 1-out single from Blake Dunn in the 9th. Matt McLain followed up with a double, but he rounded second base before realizing Dunn was held at third and the cutoff man fired to second base to tag out McLain. Dane Myers picked up an infield single to drive in a run, but a fly ball that followed ended the game as Cleveland held on for a 10-3 win.
Key Moment of the Game
Tough to pinpoint one specific spot in the game that was key as Cleveland just got it done in methodical fashion all day long.
Notes Worth Noting
Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, Sal Stewart, and Nathaniel Lowe all had 2-hit games.
Connor Phillips now has a 5.26 ERA to go along with three hit batters and 26 walks in his 25.2 innings pitched this season.
Cincinnati is 1-10 in their last 11 road games.
Up Next for the Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies
Monday May 18th, 6:40pm ET
Nick Lodolo (0-1, 8.68 ERA) vs Andrew Painter (1-4, 6.21 ERA)
That was ugly!
As ugly as the girl you wake up next to after picking her up at a bar at 2am!
Drink till she’s cute. Maybe I should try that with this team? lol
And to make things worse, she feels the exact same way!
Ha ha! Well played CenTexRed.
The girl might say that in reverse.
Maybe it’s time to trade for better hitting and pitching. I’ve been watching these issues for too many years. It’s not always the players. Coaches are supposed to fix problems.
Imagine you are the GM of another team. Which of this bunch major league imposters are you going to trade for to improve your team, besides Cruz, of course. It’s not like you can just pick up the phone and make a blockbuster deal trading eight bad hitters for eight studs, and an entire bullpen of incompetency for a lock down group.
Personally, I would like to see them scrap this one inning at a time at most (rhymes with scrap), and go to all pitchers must be available, and competent to pitch 2-3 innings any time they take the ball.
The Reds are 3 to 4 weeks away from dumping the whole season. 2014, 15 mode will ensue again with players being traded, DFA’d or outright released. It will be the late Walt Jocketty “getting younger” experiment all over again. Might as well; nothing to lose; this club is terrible; cut rate, bargain basement, low budget scrap.
Well they are still tied with Pittsburgh. That’s something I guess. And now Benson can become the star he was always going to be.
General Custer had better odds than this Reds team going to Philadelphia and trying to win a game let alone the series!
I believe they will win at least 1 game in the series,I also believe that there will be some call ups Monday. That shows what I know.
The Crow scouts tried to warn Custer. They told him “We don’t have enough bullets for all the Sioux down there. If we go down the valley then you and I will be going home today by a road we do not know”
Unfortunately this is more than one or two hitters short. The bullpen is absolutely at disaster level. Even the starting pitching even though a couple of guys will return or hopefully get back in groove again is not looking to be that good. Also add to the fact the NL Central has every team besides us with winning records does not help either.
This is a crash. The bullpen is shot. No offense. Take away EDLC and this team is truly lousy.
And they DFA’d Rece Hinds and have kept Will Benson. And Dunn, who is a very mediocre ML talent…at best. Just to get a reserve catcher up here for a couple of weeks. And a pretty lousy reserve catcher to boot.
I really feel like right now, I am about done with this team. After rooting for them for decades. Such high hopes, such crushed dreams.
Toto Francona needs to retire and go back to Oz, or wherever he came from.
On a completely different topic, I am tired of all the baseball pundits touting Skenes for another Cy Young award! He just got rocked by the Phillies today and has a 6-3 record with a 2.62 ERA. Typical ESPN bias and favoritism! Compare that to Chase Burns at 5-1 and a 1.87 ERA. What’s up with that?
Skenes has been lights out (good) for all but two outings this year. You should do some research
Oldtimer, how many bad outings has Burns had? Maybe reread Dennis’ post.
I would give the Pirates Ke’Bryan Hayes back for Paul Skenes straight up. 🙂
They’d have to throw in some cash too don’t you think? 😉
If prime Votto had ABS, could he get 500 OBP? can he train these Reds hitter? Probably won’t help, like having 1 eye cyclops on snl as the students …
Interesting thought on Votto.
I didn’t watch the game. I checked in to the box score every once in awhile to see what Steer was doing. I’m done watching now until they get serious and call some players up. They aren’t going anywhere this year. I was ticked when they told Benson he made the team with a week to go in spring training. I like watching the minor league teams because the guys who deserve to play , play. Doesn’t revolve around how much they make.
Singer has been 4 innings of awful all year. The entire bullpen has been terrible for a couple of weeks and I have never seen a team issue so many walks. Just terribly painful to watch an entire staff except for Burns and Abbott with no control.
Like watching Happy Gilmore try to putt!
Reds with 11 hits on the day, and 4 players with 2 hits. That’s a good sign, despite the final score.
The Phillies are recovering after a poor start, but the Reds should be able to play with ’em, if our pitching shows up with some good performances. I’m not sure what’s up with Lodolo, but we surely need the old Nick back on the mound.
How can they expect to win when their bullpen has given up runs in 8 consecutive innings? This meltdown all started with Ashcraft’s sparkling appearance throwing 12 consecutive balls when entering with a five run lead.
Last night, Mey was perhaps the biggest dumpster fire I have seen. I was wondering where they found him.
I will be at the Wednesday game in Philly. Abbott on mound. I will be the guy wearing the Reds cap.
The folks that point fingers at the Red’s training staff should look at Snell, Glasgow, Fried et al all going down with various injuries. Are the Dodgers, Yankees and other trainers also inept?
My son and I will be first row upper deck behind HP.
Check that we now have seats 4 rows behind Reds dugout.
I never, never, never will accept the “we do not have the financial resources” argument until the Red’s owners open up the audited financial statements to inspection. Reds fans need to stop falling into this trap.
TALENTED baseball players not excuses from ownership wins championships.
Twenty one years ago BC proclaimed he knew how to build a championship team. It is obvious he does not.
It’s not the money. They simply have no idea what they are doing.
In a day when the Reds got pounded 10-3, pitchers allowed 6 HRs and a prospect was released in-lieu of a .176 AVG leadoff hitter, I just can say it should be really good working for this organization, no accountability.
The “prospect” had even worse numbers in MLB than the leadoff hitter today. He was NOT released. DFA is not the same as Released.
Oldtimer bless your heart. The Reds haven’t won a playoff series in 31 years. Is that acceptable to you? We traded for one of the worst 3-4 hitters in mlb…now he’s the worst. Congratulations. Cmon? Defending the Reds management/ownership is impossible
“If you don’t have anything good to say, don’t say anything at all.” Ya know what I’m saying?
In essence this forum should shut down because BC has not built the squad he proclaimed he would 21 years ago that would give us something good to say. Mike drop.
I heard you like rebuilds. So I put a rebuild in your rebuild in your rebuild.
Well at least all 5 Central teams lost today, but to be honest the way this bunch is playing and being managed it doesn’t matter. The fundamentals are awful and Tito just isn’t getting through to these players. I look for him to quit after the season unless things change. Sometimes no matter what a manager says the players just don’t have faith in him. I don’t think he is helping his cause by batting Benson first and putting Maye in last night didn’t gain his players’respect. I think he is so stubborn he thinks he is always right. The releasing of Hinds and refusal to bring Marte up are making Tito look like a fool.
Hitting Benson first, and some of Tito’s other moves, seem to be made out of desperation. What does he have to work with?
Exactly Still a red, Tito has tried different line ups. TJ not hitting at all is a surprise. Marte not hitting and sent down again. Geno injured, Trevino injured a second time. All the injuries to our starting pitchers, bullpen was great now they are terrible. I would say Tito has done all he can and probably regrets coming out of retirement. Players are paid to perform and many are not. Injuries and poor performance by key players are the problem.
doubt Tito is making those calls
Well I see the mood is sour, and I get why!!! I am keeping the faith that it will turn around.
Had a few foul balls hit our way. Being at a ball game was a good day all around.
Glad you still had a good time. I’ve been at some blowouts and I just make the best of it. A bad day at the ballpark is way better than a good day at work!
Here is a Charlie Goldsmith quote of Francona speaking about the DFA of Rece Hinds, which caught my eye:
Terry Francona on Rece Hinds: “Maybe for his sake, I really hope he gets an opportunity he didn’t get here. I love the kid. There are obviously tools there. Sometimes, things have a way of working out for guys.”
The first sentence left me scratching my head. The rest of it is the sort of nice stuff we’ve come to expect at times like this. But the manager basically saying the guy didn’t get a full look with his team just seems strange to me.
Charlie’s handle on the platform where he posted this quote is @CharlieG_ for anyone who wants to look it up and verify it. I choose not to link that platform by name anymore. It is the one that formerly had the bird related name.
Do you think Tito made this call? Seems unlikely. He specifically said early on that it’s not his call and he plays the team he’s given whereas Bell at one point stated his office was moved so that he’d be in the decision making process. And those of us critical of such decisions in the Bell era were beat over the head with Bell doesn’t make the call. So Hinds is on Krall and/or Meador, more than anyone. Regardless, I suspect Hinds will wind up somewhere and do better than he’s done up to now.
This comment seems to suggest that at least the final decision to DFA Hinds specifically was made above Francona’s pay grade.
Was he asked for input? Was Hinds on a list of guys he was asked to rank in order? We will probably never know.
It is also totally possible that Francona himself is operating within a group of agreed parameters that don’t allow him to take a longer view and regrets that Hinds number came up because of this. I.e. he may have been told he could choose between say Hinds and Dunn for his RH bench guy and that the other one was the DFA.
In total though, if Hinds had asked for a job reference, he could not have gotten a better one than Francona gave him.
Hinds was given several opportunities, short but opportunities.
He struck out way too much and had trouble with pitch recognition.
TJ is not hitting and his playing time is greatly reduced. His history keeps him on the team, Hinds had no history. Hinds will be given an opportunity somewhere and I hope he does well. It is a game of constant adjustments, Bleday is a good example.
I was surprised by that statement too, Jim. I just wish someone had asked him “Why didn’t he get the opportunity here?”
@Daytonati>. Exactly. Me too. The obvious follow up question when beat reporters were real beat reporters and not just beat repeaters.
Didn’t get the opportunity here could mean a few different things. I think many here thinks it means he deserved more ABs no matter how bad they were to see if he was really that bad or could punch his way out of the bag and that Francona would have liked to have given it to him. It could also mean the team is desperate for hitters and can’t afford to wait on Hinds to figure it out on the field. So why Hayes, and McLain, and Stephenson…I guess because the Reds have lots of poor hitting OFs to plug and play … not so many 3rd and 2nd basemen or catchers.
@Still… Sounds reasonable to me. I believe a big part of the issue is guys that have enough MLB experience that the Reds were counting on them, guys like Friedl, Stephenson, McLain, and Hayes, have been so bad that it limited the opportunity to look longer at Hinds because he could not displace any of them on defense.
Plus of course they kept thinking these guys would come around at least more than they have.
The one guy I really do not understand getting so much slack is Benson. He has managed to pick up his OBP by working walks but they still absolutely do not want him to face a LH pitcher. That is just not tenable to me. It speaks to how bad Friedl and Hayes are and how desperate the Reds are for some who can get on base even a bit.
“He has managed to pick up his OBP by working walks”
How long will that continue? Not long likely. Pitchers aren’t that stupid. He was 0-2 with two Ks today. They know he can’t hit and will stop giving him free passes. Major league PA now 1122…and counting.
The comment by Francona is very simple, and doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure it out. Francona is saying that Hinds didn’t get a full opportunity here because the Reds have hitting issues, and just could not give Hinds a long enough leash based on too many other hitting issues in the lineup. In other words, they didn’t have the luxury to “hope” Hinds turns it around.
Well one last thing that has caught my eye on RLN. A few are now questioning Francona, just like the previous manager. Which makes me realize that no matter what, they will nitpick,complain, and know better how to manage a mlb team from their couch.
Sometimes we do. I was far from alone last year when I said bring up Stewie in July last year. JJ Bleday anyone? Francona leaving him at AAA on Opening Day tells me his best days were long long ago. Yeah he knows more mlb then me or anyone else on RLN, but people get old. Young people adapt faster
Funny how Dallas’s Jimmy Johnson was such a legend when he had all that talent in Dallas in the 90s. What happened when he went to the Dolphins?
Tito is Phil Jackson with the Knicks
Perhaps ownership/FO told Tito to leave Bleday in L’ville to start the season?
Could be the case, but thats where a HOFer takes a stand. Hey you need me more then I need you. If you want me to cook a great meal then I better get some say on the groceries. Paraphrasing Bill Parcells
100% of transactions or player movement needs to be ok with Tito.
Yes Indy, but sometimes you say this us not the hill I am willing to die on.
What has caught my eye is the flip side to being a “nitpicker or couch complainer” are the Pollyannas, who assume that every GM or Manager’s decision is the right one because “You have never managed a baseball team!”
Who says they “assume anything ” for the record I have been a manager/coach before,however doesnt make me qualified to be a mlb manager. *Shrugs *
There are plenty of underachieving teams in MLB out there. I can only imagine that each of those fanbases are “nit-picking” the GM & the manager. That’s why we have forums – which at times are more entertaining than the game summary!
Richard’s article from last week laid out his take on the GM/Coaching direction (which seems probable). Cleveland is the team the Reds aspire to become. Low K’s, high BB’s, timely hitting, good defense and solid pitching. And to build the organization towards that takes time. Some guys will fit into that mold, some will just not. Plate discipline is hard to teach.
A bit of a break for the Reds today with all four of the other NLC teams losing.
I believe it was during the early 2000’s when the Phillies fans and media pushed a manager named Tito Francona out of town. The majority owners cried poor. This cry of being poor did not fly with the media nor fans. New majority owners took over and invested in the team not themselves. The results are evident. Tito bore the brunt of ownership ineptitude.
But you ask “why did Tito come to Cincy knowing how cheap ownership is?” I do not know. Perhaps Skyline? Phil’s skilled persuasive personality? That is an interesting question that perhaps will be answered one day.
My biggest complaint about the Reds right now is Marte = so much potential in AAA while others with far less potential play almost every day.
I think Marte is trade bait.
Marte had a big late home run in the nightcap of a double seven inning twinbill for the Bats. It broke a 2-2 and helped power the Bats to a win and a split on the day. Arroyo also came up big in the nightcap. Both guys pushed their AAA OPS back up over 1.000
Marte is getting it done in the minors but so what? He should be with the Reds in center or right field or else traded for an established hitter for the outfield if the supposed conflict with Francona can not be resolved. Marte has too much talent to be languishing in the minors. He is the key, either with the Reds or another team to make the Reds again, as in past years, a feared offensive team.
I was not aware that there was a conflict between Tito and Marte. Is this true? Can you elaborate TR?
I wish I could elaborate, doofus, but I have no connection to Francona or Marte. I’ve only heard on a couple occasions in a post or comment about the supposed conflict.
Definitely another SFP game …
At least I didn’t drive off the highway whilst listening to the onslaught.
I think I should adopt a few Colonel Potter expressions. My favorite was always “Horse Hockey!’
I can’t wait to hear Trace tonight on Chatterbox Reds, it may get ugly.
These last 12 games in May coming up feel like a 2-10, 3-9, 4-8 type of streak. All 4 teams are either good, or playing quite a bit better than they were like the Mets. Reds could really tank a bit here going into June.
They do have Lodolo, Burns, and Abbott against the Phillies though, so maybe they can win a game or 2 in that series with some great starting pitching. If Lodolo turns it around then you have a chance to win 3 of 5 games most of the time with those 3….well the bullpen does have to pitch decent though, and they have to score runs too!
Can Francona keep them afloat going into June? I’m not sure. One thing I think he needs to do to give them a better chance is give up on the idea of a leadoff hitter among Benson, Friedl, even Meyer. Stop trying to force it I’d say, and just move your 2-6 up and have De La Cruz lead off.
I think Singer has some nagging injuries with the blister and getting hit the other night. I’d put him on the 15 day DL. Take your time with Suarez getting him fully healthy, and hope you make it to some time in June not completely out of it with a healthy Suarez, Singer, and Lodolo and maybe you can stay in the race. I think the odds are not looking good right now, but that would be my hope for them to stick around going into late June or early July.
Benson should have been DFA’d, not Hinds. We’ve seen Benson for years now, and he is still the same ball player that cannot make consistent contact.
So very tired of the Reds doing DUMB things. Not everything is dumb, but they seem to repeat doing dumb things in a cycle.
And for the readers keeping score at home, since Christian Encarnacion-Strand was DFA’d by the Reds (that bum) he is hitting .293 with the Norfolk Tides, with 6 Hr and 22 RBI’s in 99 official AB’s, with an OPS of .925. Sure glad we dumped that bum.
Sure glad we dumped that bum Rece Hinds, too. Sure glad we have kept Will Benson, he’s the greatest.
A few things: I understand you’re being sarcastic, but let’s not call people bums.
Also, with regards to CES, I pointed it out the other day and it still holds true: He is chasing pitches out of the zone more since leaving the Reds and joining the Orioles farm system. He’s also making less contact when he swings at strikes since joining the Orioles organization. He’s making more contact on non-strikes since leaving the Reds organization.
If he continues to swing at more non-strikes, make contact on more non-strikes, and make less contact on actual strikes, there’s no chance he continues to hit well. There has been no “magic fix”. For some reason despite all of the evidence I just shared, pitchers are throwing him far fewer strikes to begin at-bat. When they fix that and if he doesn’t adjust, he’s going to go back to being the same guy he always has been or worse because guys just don’t become better hitters by swinging at MORE pitches out of the strikezone and making less contact at pitches in the strikezone.
How is Marte’s current quest for better pitch selection going?
Is the statcast data for MiLB readily available, I’ve yet to run across it?
Tom, you can get it at Fangraphs. Click on the plate discipline tab. You then need to also click on the “minor leagues” section above the header on the “stats” section.
But if you want to be a little lazy, I wrote about it here in the comments – https://www.redlegnation.com/2026/05/17/cincinnati-reds-road-woes-continue-in-a-blowout-loss-in-cleveland-guardians/#comment-1137074
Sweet, I found it, that’s awesome. Thanks so much as always.
Looks like Marte has some more work to do at AAA working on his plate discipline. Hope he can get that moving in the right direction and also put some much needed polish on his OF defensive work.
Someone on RLN talked about the Reds scouting pitchers with too much emphasis on velocity. Indianapolis Colts GM Chris Ballard is in love with RAS (Relative Athletic Score). The kids speed, wingspan, height, weight, etc etc.
Sometimes a certain guy just gets the game. They understand what they have to do without freakish ability. It took HG 3 years to throw a split. Maybe Chase Burns can do it with 2, but I doubt it. Ashcraft another example. AA is the only one primarily using his brain to get people out. Idk, but this team hasn’t even played the big dogs yet like the Cubs have. 78-84 maybe
Tigers, Red Sox, Orioles, Giants really struggling. I think the Reds may be sort of pesky and sort of stay around .500 but they’re not the only teams struggling, if it makes us feel a little better as Reds fans!
But it does make you wonder, what are teams like Milwaukee, Tampa, Cleveland doing the Reds aren’t? I appreciate the Reds having a few slightly above .500 season, but those teams have all had great seasons within the past 5 years way above .500, and seem to be pretty good again this year. It’s not a payroll issue between those clubs. It’s a competitive business , just interesting that some organizations are so much more successful in a sense.
I break the league into 3 categories
1. Teams that are “too big to fail” Dodgers, Yankees, Mets. Redsox. Yes they may make dumb decisions from time to time but in general they are competitive year in and year out due to superior talent.
2. Teams that just “get it”. Brewers, Cardinals, Ray’s, Guardians are the ones that come to mind. Not huge payrolls but they seem to have “system” that they follow no matter what.
3. Then you have the rest of the league that always seem to be in “rebuilding ” mode. They seem to always have good young pitching but not enough talent to have any sustained success. These are the Reds, Royals, Pirates etc.
To me the reds have had good pitching for the most part the last 15 years or so but not enough talented position players.
Seems like they are always looking for the next Eric Davis or Veda Pinson. The classic ” 5 tool player”. They favor athleticism over the ability to hit. So we wind up with Billy hamilton, Aquino, Hinds, Stubbs.. etc.
Trying to think of something this team does really well. It’s hard. Maybe infield defense. That’s all I got.
I would add the Mariners to that second group, even if they have a bit more payroll. They have a good system, they develop excellent pitching and position players, both.
Better talent?
Sure, but why?
Did we give up a HR to each Guardian in the lineup this series? Sure seemed like it.
DFA Friedl and Benson. Hayes must be a defensive replacement only
No MLB team – least of all, the Reds – can afford one of their 13 position players to be a defensive replacement only.
Glad Arroyo is back in the lineup. I was at the game Friday and thought he may have broke his leg.
Also was at the Dragons game yesterday
Dunno hit a ball over the scoreboard in left field. Didn’t think it was possible.
Things really do look dire now, with no light at the end of the tunnel … BUT, it’s too early to throw in the towel.
Ok, now that MM’s OBP is higher than Benson’s, put MM in the leadoff spot. Would like to see Myers and Dunn get a run in the starting lineup. They can’t do any worse than Benson and Friedl. Tomorrow, MM, Elly, Steer, Bleday, Sal, Lowe, Myers, Stephenson, Dunn
Fire Tired ol Tito, Krall and Johnson. Phils are playing better, funny how that usually is the case. Francona has completely lost this entire team, that’s if you can classify this Lost, Lacking, Lot of Laughable Losers a team. They’re gonna get dusted in Philly. Good job Reds, we’re all proud of our Forever, Fledgling, Floundering, Fumbling Fools.
Chase Burns, HG, AA, healthy slider rich Lodolo, and Lowder or best alternative
Thats a sweet rotation with a chance to win almost every night. Pens can be fixed or atleast patched up to middle of the pack pretty quick. Trade/buy a closer.
Runs can be found to be atleast middle of the pack offensively if they can fix leadoff? Bat Elly 2nd & MM 9th. Singer, KBH, Friedl, and Benson (and Krall) barred from the 513 area code altogether
Next year could be fun, but this one is over. Too many holes.
Go Reds! Stay positive, I think they have a great chance to really get it going this week against Philly! Show Schwarber what he is missing out on! The Reds batting average on 2nd pitches out of the zone when the balls in play says they will get this going soon!
If It’s true Marte isn’t with the Reds because of a rift with Tito, Francona has to get over it or step away from the game. Times have changed and so have player coach relationships.
Remember, the issue with Marte is more than a rift with Francona. There were articles about coach’s conversations with Marte earlier in the year because Marte wasn’t putting in the work. Marte is a very talented athlete but may well be one of those guys looking for shortcuts, like PEDs or a guy with so much natural talent, he’s never had to apply himself to succeed. As many have noted here, the jump from AAA to MLB is a big one. For most of us, the closet we may have come to that experience is the jump from high school to college. And a lot of smart high school students crash and burn in college. It’s like the saying “What got you here won’t get you there”. I hope the AAA experience gets Marte on track. We’ll have to wait and see.
The warning sign for me in Marte’s 2026 AAA work is the .378 batting average and .430 BABIP. My guess is that, in addition to the pitching being better at MLB, the defenses will be more effective because of both better fielding skills and better shifts.
Also, his AAA K rate is just 17%, which I would almost bet dollars against donuts is going to go up to over 20%
The only thing that’s a warning sign of is that if you have unrealistic expectations that he’ll hit .350 in the big leagues that you are going to be wrong. No one is going to do that. The warning sign I would be a little hesitant about is that he’s still chasing 32% of pitches out of the zone in Triple-A and that he’s hardly swinging at pitches in the zone (62%). He is hitting the ball a ton when he does swing at pitches in the zone (92% contact rate), but he simply isn’t being aggressive enough on pitches in the zone and being a bit too aggressive on pitches out of the zone for me to feel like he’s going to for sure come back and hit well. That’s not to say I wouldn’t give it a shot but to me those are much larger warning signs for hesitation than his .430 BABIP – he’s hitting .378 – his average can fall a ton and he would still be hitting quite well.
I agree LDS. I think those who think Marte is the missing piece are fooling themselves.
I like your analogy between high school and college. I did pretty well as an undergraduate and felt pretty good about myself entering law school. But once in Law School, I quickly learn that everyone in my class excelled as an undergraduate. I was nothing special. The further you go in life the harder it gets. You can relax when you retire. I think Marte is learning that lesson now.
@ Doug Gray
If he hits .260-.275 with a decent slugging percentage, and an OPS over .800, I call that…..a WIN! Because none of the other outfielders has been able to sustain that.
Bleday MIGHT, but he also might go into a tailspin slump (eg, Sal Stewart). I hope Bleday keeps it up (well, of course), but as they say, it’s a long season. We sort of had an answer in CF in terms of Rece Hinds, if they would just give him the chance they have given Will Benson, but alas, that is not to be. Really, really disappointed in this, and once again, it points to the Reds Front Office and Top Men not being able to actually evaluate talent very well.
Top Men.
If he can OPS .750 it’s a win, probably. He’s still a shaky defender in the outfield.
But no, we didn’t sort of have an answer in CF with Hinds. The guy hit literally .100 in the big leagues after the first 6 games of his career, spanning 107 plate appearances.
If Hinds had hit like Benson has maybe he would have gotten a chance. But instead, Hinds has put up an OPS of .360 since July 14, 2024 as a big leaguer. Meanwhile, Benson has had an OPS of .673 in that same time period. Benson has hit for an average more than twice as high, he’s walked more than twice as often, he’s hit for significantly more power, and he’s made significantly more contact.
Hinds, fair or unfair, blew it. The Reds gave him a chance again this year and he struck out literally half of the time he went to the plate and had an OPS under .400. He showed absolutely nothing other than being completely and utterly embarrassed. Would he have done better if given more time? Maybe. But a team simply is not going to continue to run a guy out there for weeks on end when they are striking out 50% of the time they step into the batters box. That’s on Hinds, not on the Reds, not on Benson, not on anyone but Hinds.
A quick moment of recognition for Elly De La Cruz. He’s been flat out GREAT for upwards of a month now. .337 average and .942 OPS the last 28 days. Relatively even splits, and near identical K/BB ratios from either side. Defensively, he’s on pace to cut his error totals by 50% or more. The one thing holding him back from being a top 5 guy in the entire game imo is his 2 strike approach–his OPS in 2 strike counts is pretty bad….but so are most hitters in those situations. Recently they mentioned he is tops in striking out looking, so room for improvement there. Even so, this kid is very good.
@Sultan RE: EDLC and being caught looking at third strikes…..
I find myself wondering if he is also guess hitting that much earlier in the count too. If so, why is he so much worse at 2 strikes? Or do the 2 strike missed guesses just stand out because they end the PA?
Hard to say. I mean, his OPS with <2 strikes is elite, so if he were guessing it should show there as well, yes?. On BBref his OPS vs. 'finesse' pitchers is somewhat low and he rakes vs. power pitchers. So maybe it's offspeed pitches he struggles with…..which jives with what we usually see.
The main takeaways on Fangraphs—he's swinging a fewer pitches out of the zone, his barrel rate is up, and he's hitting the ball in the air more (which leads to more HRs). I was going to comment the other day about the Reds.com article on JJ Bleday and how his secret sauce is getting the ball into the air on the pull side–that most successful hitters do that more often (i.e. Geno). Imo TySteve and Hayes specifically need to be selling out more for pull side power.
The season is still very young and the Reds do have a winning record. I guess that’s the good news. The bad news is despite getting off to a good start the underlining numbers are discouraging.
I think there is a decent chance the Reds can right the ship. But, there is also a good chance they could fall off a cliff.
If the Reds do tank, you would have to think there will be major changes in the Red’s front office.
My fantasy is, if there are not major changes in the next CBA, the Castellinis will get fed up and put the team up for sale. I realize it’s unlikely to happen though.
I have been listening to the A’s games recently. What an interesting young team they are. But they also have a bad owner. I hear the Rays are winning playing small ball. I may have to check them out as well. I just need some distraction until the Reds figure it out.
To be honest with you, I don’t think the Reds will ever figure it out. Sorry, it’s got me very, very disappointed with them, based on the STUPID (there is no other word) movements by the front office.
1) Sign Jeimer Candalario to a 4 year contract (still paying on that one)
2) DFA Rece Hinds, one of the most talented athletes in the system, to make room on the 40 man for PJ Higgins, a sub mediocre catcher. Because the coaches, the front office, etc., decided that Rece was just not our kind of guy…. in 28 ML AB’s this season, after scorching the ball in Spring Training and at AAA.
And they keep Will Benson, who is 3 years older. My jaw dropped when I read this the other day.
Except for the 70’s era, when they had a very smart GM in Robert Howsam, the Reds have been pretty much a .500 team for most of their history (on average). They got lucky and had good teams, and then had lousy teams. There is no rhyme or reason to it at all. The present ownership, besides not getting big free agents, has also not paid for top front office talent to run the team. And thus it will always remain so.
SonPhil doesn’t seem to be the type of guy whose idea of a career and lifestyle would revolve around being the working CEO of an MLB team. Maybe he is waiting for the fullness of time to do its work before he makes his move?
Don’t know why Friedl didn’t challenge the called strike three in the fourth. The ball was a FOOT high for God’s Sake. At the time he was the tying run. He just barked at the ump and walked away. Obvious to me and everyone else that the dude is completely lost and doesn’t care anymore. He’s another one that needs to go.
Funny, I took it the other way……..that he didn’t want to burn a challenge that early in the game if he were wrong. I thought it was selfless.
It was a sure win though
Yes a sure win, but early in the game. I bet he thought about it and couldn’t pat the head. Kwan did an inning or two later, and got the call reversed. The ump seemed to be off on a number of pitches up and inside.
Did I mention the pitch was a foot high?
If you win the challenge, you RETAIN THE CHALLENGE———HELLO???
WAKE TJ!!! You’re a SUPPOSED Major Leaguer. Granted I stress the SUPPOSED. If he can’t tell if a pitch is a FOOT high he doesn’t belong even close to the Bigs. I even had a better batting eye than his in high school.
And right after Ol’ Rally Killer Stewart got Picked Off Second, AGAIN—-what’s this the FOURTH TIME. HE’s just another in a long line of disappointments on this so called “team”.
This afternoon/evening we will get to witness two teams with identical W/L records. That is the only similarity though. I am no Phillies fan, but I am envious. Like the Cards, Philadelphia’s ownership and the FO are competent and eager to win.
Poor Tito, he can only work with the pieces he’s given.
As for Rece Hinds, the dude is obviously not good enough. He’s 25 and doesn’t even know what a curve ball looks like. There are many great athletes that can run and catch and throw, that don’t make it. Hitting the baseball is what makes major leaguers.
And there is the Reds’ issue, not nearly enough major league hitters in the org. Simple as that.
I agree…
I do think the Reds emphasize athleticism over hitting. Always looking for the next Eric Davis or Joe Morgan.
So the Dodgers according to Google AI are considered to have the best record in developing hitters. I posted those they’ve produced the last few years in an earlier post.
So who’s the hitting coach. Robert Van Scoyoc. Ever hear of him. Me neither.
Here’s a couple articles:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25403377/prized-hitting-guru-robert-van-scoyoc-3-others-join-dodgers-coaching-staff-2019
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Van_Scoyoc
For those down on launch angle…here’s your nemisis.
Take away for me: doesn’t really matter who your hitting coach is. They may help some, but they can’t cure you.