Yes, Ke’Bryan Hayes had indeed entered the chat. First back in February, until Hunter Greene’s arm elbowed its way into the discussion. Now that the controversy over what the Reds’ medical staff knew and when did they know it has been finally exhausted, the usual finger-pointing put to bed, we turn our lonely eyes back to the offense, as one always does here in the Ballpark Down By the River.
The cries of some to upset the apple cart and make substantive changes to the roster in April to a team that is 14-8, in first place in the NL Central, and doing it with a diminished starting staff are the stuff of fever dreams born of fan frustration over the usual April struggles in major league baseball that hitters across the league are subject to because pitchers traditionally are further along the first month of the season. Or, as Dan Szymborski said the other day over in a Fangraphs chat:
“April usually sucks [for hitters] , but we’re also still early April, where the best pitchers have more of an IP gap than usual. 3 times through the rotation instead of 2 is a bigger diff than 30 times through compared to 28. And early April is colder than late April.”
The panic over the terrible start to the season by TJ Friedl, Tyler Stephenson, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer and Noelvi Marte has led many to extend their ire to Hayes because he serves as an easy and obvious poster child for an impotent offense, even as his primary skill and the reason he was brought here is to help provide lockdown defense to a team that gave away outs in 2025 the way parents give out Butterfingers at Halloween. Yet Hayes’ extraordinary ability with the glove is not only deemed expendable by many, but also seen as a detriment to winning by those who value defense the way small children value their vegetables.
While it’s fundamentally true Hayes will likely never become much more than a replacement level hitter, Statcast shows he has been unusually unlucky, plunging his offensive production into the gutter. That little piece of evidence tends to fall on deaf ears when the franchise, which has struggled for years to reliably produce offense, begins the season with more of the same. It feels for all the world that Hayes is paying for the sins of Friedl & Co., the part of the lineup that was supposed to carry this offense.
When asked about the slow start to his season postgame the other day, Spencer Steer replied: “That’s kinda just the process, and not getting too wrapped up in results. If you’re worrying about results, and results oriented, this game will eat you alive.” Many onlookers only care about immediate results, and have no problem if a proven major league player in an early rut gets eaten alive in service of someone in Triple A who promises to be the latest savior to the Reds offensive woes.
In truth, the connection between the loss of Greene, the temporary delay in Nick Lodolo’s 2026 season, and whatever future pitching injuries are likely to occur, make the presence of Hayes at third even more important. The loss of the #1 and 2 starting pitchers means more balls in play, which in turn means more pressure on the infield defense to convert what otherwise would be strikeouts into ground outs. And don’t get me started on the value to the bullpen.
Further, it’s way too easy to overlook the value of exceptional glove play to the psyche of a pitcher and his ability to confidently throw strikes. When a pitcher has faith in the fielding behind him, it potentially frees him up to challenge hitters, knowing his teammates will go get the ball when contact is made. In contrast, when a pitcher knows the defense behind it is suspect, it encourages him to get cute with the strike zone, hoping hitters will chase. Remember that when you get frustrated by your favorite pitcher nibbling around the edges of the box, walking the leadoff hitter in a close game.
Sequestering Hayes in the dugout as a late inning defensive replacement further insults the value of run prevention, pretending that defense only matters late, and doesn’t factor into the first 6 innings of a baseball game. If offense is king, why remove it from the game at all. This thinking is at the very least a fool’s errand and let’s leave it at that.
Further, Hayes at third simply isn’t keeping the important bats (De La Cruz, Suarez, McLain, Steer, Stewart) out of the lineup. Putting anyone else at third to get an unproven bat into the lineup weakens the defense—demonstrably. Given how splendidly he plays the corner, it’s difficult to see how shuffling the lineup to get marginal hitters more at bats would make up for the run prevention Hayes provides. But, you have to value run prevention seriously enough to seek out information and acknowledge facts that many fans—some of whom are prisoners of those bygone Big Red Machine days of their youth, coloring their understanding of the game—simply cannot or will not do.
Of course, this argument would be entirely moot if the Reds had invested in, say, Alex Bregman in free agency, where the long history of his offensive production could more than offset the run prevention Hayes brings. But, Nathaniel Lowe isn’t Bregman or even Brandon Lowe.
No matter how you evaluate defense—Defensive Runs Saved, Outs Above Average—or any other measurement—the result graded out as very poor for the Reds last season, certainly one that mitigated the Reds’ strength, run prevention, the driving force that allowed them to sneak into the playoffs last season and has provided a fast start this season.
Defense has always been elusive to quantify. That has made it easy for some to diminish it’s value and in some cases disregard it altogether. But run prevention not only exists, it continues to dramatically influence games, day-after-day, season-after-season, whether we choose to acknowledge it or not. Sunday’s game saw an insurance run erased in the ninth on a fine stab of a De La Cruz smash down the first base line, courtesy of Twins first baseman Kody Clemens, a sure run-producing shot that would have likely kept the Twins from extending the game to extra innings. A ninth inning smash past Sal Stewart tied the game in the ninth. Would that run have scored if Hayes had been in the game guarding the line against a double by a right handed hitter? With the score tied in the 10th, Suarez, hit a routine ground ball to third that Tristan Gray whiffed on, followed seconds later by a bobbled ball by outfielder Austin Martin, resulting in two Twins errors on one play, which ultimately sealed the game for the Reds.
Will those critical defensive moments be remembered tomorrow as instrumental in the game’s outcome? Hardly. We’ll be talking about Friedl’s big hit and Rece Hinds’ unexpected but welcome double into the gap because runs put on the scoreboard are valued much more than runs erased from the same scoreboard ever are or ever will be.
The more people keep insisting the Reds can’t afford to have Ke’Bryan in the lineup, the more I’ll insist the Reds need to lean into their strength—pitching and run prevention, while relying on the core of the Reds offense to do their part. Because if they don’t, there’s no one coming to the rescue, not from Louisville, and certainly not from the Castellinis. That seems to be what Terry Francona knows even as his supporters have forgotten the philosophy that brought him to this organization in the first place after a stint in Cleveland.
Last week, the Reds celebrated Noelvi Marte’s wall-scraping catch that helped save the Reds season last September. Fans lined up for hours to get their hands on this paperweight memory. It’s ironic that for too many, defense matters most only when it appears in bobblehead form.
I hear ya… but Suarez isn’t a slouch at 3b and Hayes is a black hole in the lineup. His BA over his last 100+ ABs is under .100.
Give me Lowe at DH and Suarez at third
KBH is like having a pitcher bat prior to the DH. He should only be a defensive replacement at this point. He actually plays a “power bat” position and the trade for him never made much sense. As for the rest of the guys that are not hitting, It is still early but we cannot be afraid to make some moves. Send some players down to fix some problems.
Not sure you can even afford to have someone as a defensive replacement no matter how good they are when they hit that poorly. That being said he has been extremely unlucky with batted balls in plays. Let’s hope that evens out some and he can somehow crack the Mendoza line at least…
KBH has to have the worst luck in the league right now. Lots of his batted balls are solid contact but right at someone.
That being said I feel he needs to be more aggressive on the first pitch fast balls he sometimes lays off on.
At the very least I would have Geno starting at 3B every other game so he doesn’t get worn out. Could also start Steer some at 3B if would call up Bleday to play LF.
wouldn’t we be better defensively with Steer at DH and Suarez at 3B?
Great read Mr.Finch
I have watched him almost every at bat this season, he has been unlucky, but will never be a 300 hitter. ON the other hand, his defense saves runs and has great value. I kind of cringe when he comes up, but glad to have him out there at third, as I am sure the pitchers are.
No one is dreaming or requiring him to be a .300 hitter. About .230 would be wonderful.
Right…you can live with offensive numbers that are reasonably below average because of his glove. He’s not gonna hit this badly through out the season (at least I sure hope not), but he very well may hit well below .200 and that isn’t anywhere close to being reasonably below average.
He hasn’t hit over .240 since 2023. He’s simply not a very good hitter. There are guys who aren’t very good hitters that struggle mightily and then fade away. He may be one of those. If you factor in the fact he hit .209 in September last year, this trend is very concerning.
Jimbo, I don’t know why you’re talking about .300 hitting. Across both leagues last year, there were a total of SEVEN players that hit .300.
Oneil Cruz (Pitt) had the worst qualifying BA last year at .200. Notables on that list were Matt McLain (4th worst) at .220, Willy Adames (SF, 5th) at .225, Nathaniel Lowe and Eugenio Suarez (tied for 7th) at .228. Marcus Semien (Tex) and Joey Ortiz (Mil) tied for 10th at .230, Marcell Ozuna (Atl) and Mike Trout (LAA) were at .232, Jonathan India (KC) was 18th at .233, Lars Nootbaar (StL) was 20th at .234, and one Ke’Bryan Hayes was 24th at .235. With the average BA last year being .245, there were a ton of players in the .236-.245 range.
Yes, some of those low BA players had a high SLG %, but players like Nootbaar, India, and Ortiz certainly didn’t. Some players, like Ke’Bryan Hayes, are on the field for their defense. As an aside, that India/Singer trade is looking real good at this point.
However, to get back to one of the central points of this discussion, as Richard so eloquently laid out, and as Dan Szymborski said the other day over in a Fangraphs chat:
“April usually sucks [for hitters] , but we’re also still early April, where the best pitchers have more of an IP gap than usual. 3 times through the rotation instead of 2 is a bigger diff than 30 times through compared to 28. And early April is colder than late April.”
The Reds are in first place, yet each and every day we have the hand wringers demanding change. If it isn’t broken, you don’t fix it. This ballclub is built on pitching and a good defense is the best way to support that. There are some that contend that surely the pitching will falter, while surely the hitting will not improve without significant changes (those contentions seem to be at odds with one another). Many of the players that certain fans lament like Friedl, Steer, and Stephenson have been league average hitters over the course of their careers. Why would we assume that any of them are toast and will not return to their career norms? Why not explore whether McLain can return to the form he showed in the minors and in his rookie year, before a significant injury sidetracked him?
The strong pitching enables the Reds to give their struggling hitters a long runway on which to land. Let the season progress well past mid April and see which hitters adapt and improve and which hitters do not. If the majority of the aforementioned start hitting, we can certainly have one of the best defenders in baseball in the lineup on a daily basis.
Well written and perfectly stated.
You make a good point Richard but I’m going to disagree, partly because baseball debates are far more fun of they include arguments from more than one side. Buxton would not have scored in the first on two sac flies if KBH hadn’t tried to force an unwise throw and handed him second base. And the Reds would not have won Saturday if their third baseman not named Hayes hadn’t made two sensational plays. And Suarez actually can hit, at least a lot more than Hayes. So yes, defense matters. But Eugenio and Sal, the other two reasonable options, can bring their glove to the field of play as well and are not just an open door at the hot corner. And perhaps most importantly, every spot in the lineup will come up at least three times a night and usually more. But the ball is not always hit to 3rd base. So the marginal value of a better glove for nine innings is far smaller for me than the added value of a much better bat. I’d play Suarez and Stewart at 3rd and add Lowe, Benson, or Steere to the lineup and let Hayes give the closer confidence late in the game. I yield the floor.
Stewart should of made the play. He needs to learn to scoop up the balls in the dirt. Like the one Hayes threw. That error should of been on Stewart
All due respect, should have (not of).
I’m a Hayes fan, Kevin, and a believer in the importance of defense, but the throw had weird spin and took a weird hop. The error was Hayes’. But ironically, the play shows the importance of defense/run prevention. It is illogical to value it less than offense: it’s half of the game. If you stop the other team from scoring, your chance of winning is greatly enhanced, and the Reds did, as Richard said, give away a significant number of runs last year. I tend to think that Hayes, like the other slumping Reds, will start hitting better fairly soon. That outcome probably wouldn’t be abetted by sitting him, but I certainly see the argument that his current futility is too severe for a regular in the batting order. I’m glad this is Tito’s call and not mine.
From what I saw that throw took a really weird hop big guy. Also when the ball hits the dirt the error ALWAYS goes to the thrower.
Stewart is a 3rd baseman playing first base poorly. Steer is an excellent first baseman playing LF badly. Benching
Hayes could fix that but pitchers understand the value of Hayes’ defense and and he’s been incredibly unlucky on offense. Bottom line: don’t start Hayes as often, but play him depending on whether our starting pitcher gets a lot of ground balls and not many Ks, the opposing lineup, etc.
Thanks for the comments guys. I forgot it took a weird spin. Duh, my fault.
Feedback much appreciated!!
Of course Kevin if Steer would have been at first on that play RLN would have been screaming he is to short to play first.
Fine article Richard. As a former college pitcher, solid defense most-definitely changed the way I pitched. Paragraphs 6-7 are spot-on.
As for KBH’s 1st inning error, that was an amazing play to even make it close and a solid 1b digs that thro (or at least knocks it down).
Having Eugenio adds to the team flexibility & depth. This is a good problem that the Reds have not had for many years!
Tickets prices as low as 18 dollars at the Trop tonight. Just a short drive from Sarasota. I’m very excited
That’s cheaper than the Bats games I’ve gone to. Very nice and have a blast!
Reds are in first. Hayes leads the league in DRS (yet again). Not a coincidence. The Reds were the last team to commit an error in 2026. Again, the Reds are in 1st. I’m fine not having a softball team. I’d rather have a first place baseball team that plays defense with the best bullpen in the league.
Biggest issue: “There is no one coming to the rescue.”
…why the heck not?
If the offense continues to stagnate, Krall better pick up the phone and start working a deal, Overpaying if necessary. Get a bat so that Hayes’ presence in the lineup can be overcome by more than just the core. What would the Angels want for Mike Trout? Arroyo, Lodolo and Duno? Fine.
A lockout is coming next year that may span multiple seasons. There is no tomorrow.
Offensive help needs to be coming, and soon.
It’s a reasonable plan, Jesse, but we surely know by now that ownership would never let Krall take on that much salary.
We’re back to this again??? “Krall needs to work the phones.”
April trades? Since when? And trade what? Pitching? Like it or not, that’s not part of the Francona & Co. plan. Never has been.
The late inning smash down the 3rd base line past Sal was a positioning error on the coaches. They should have had him play tight to the line to prevent a double.
And that coaching should have taken into account a player’s abilities, including a player’s limitations such as lesser range.
I was wondering if someone else would mention this. That seemed like a big mistake by the player or coaches.
There is always this dynamic between defense play and an offensive ballplayer.
For years, a lot of teams had weak offensive shortstops or catchers, because
1) there was no alternative
2) defense at these particular positions is essential
Having a “bad” shortstop will obviously cost you runs. Base hits passed the SS in the hole, up the middle. Having a bad catcher is even worse, in some ways. Passed balls, bad throws, stolen bases, pitchers unwilling to throw a breaking ball because is might lead to a passed ball in crucial situations.
Third base: Over the years, the Reds have had good/lousy/mediocre 3rd baseman. Ke’Bryan Hayes is supposed to be a premium fielding 3rd baseman. It think his lack of hitting might be overlooked if the rest of the team was hitting. Friedl, McLain, Steer and Stephenson are not contributing with any regularity to the offense. So Ke’Bryan Hayes NOT hitting gets a lot of focus.
I would guess that Ke’Bryan Hayes WANTS to hit, and it is probably eating him up inside that he is not hitting, not even .220 or .230. Maybe it will even up in time, or maybe pitching in the league has just gotten so good, that hitting is really being depressed.
I know the other night I was watching part of a game, and McLain froze on a fastball that looked like it was going outside, then movement put it right on the outside edge for a called 3rd strike. It was a wicked looking pitch. Is this what guys are facing all the time now?
The Reds have won six NL pennants in my lifetime.
Gene Freese in 1961 was not a good fielding 3B. Nor was Tony Perez in 1970. Both were sluggers.
Denis Menke in 1972 was a pretty good fielding 3B but past his prime as a hitter.
Pete Rose in 1975 and 1976 was adequate fielder as 3B. Not great.
Chris Sabo was maybe the best 3B on Reds teams that won NL pennants.
I was also thinking of Scott Rolan in 2010 and 2012. Those were pretty good teams (especially the 2012 team). Scott was a really good 3rd baseman.
While nobody would confuse Tony Perez with Brooks Robinson, he was still a good 3rd baseman, moved from 1st to make room for Lee May. He was actually really good at charging a slow roller, or bunt and firing a throw to 1st base. It also helped that Lee May was 6’4″ tall.
Pete’s greatest weakness as a 3rd baseman was his arm, it was not a strong 3rd baseman’s arm.
Sabo was a good 3rd baseman, when he wasn’t hurt. He was kind of injury prone.
I like your writing and style. It’s a little tough on the old-timer fans like me who made the Big Red Machine what it was with their cheering. There were no blogs for the coach to sneak his ideas from. 🙂
If defensive prowess is the key as you opine, then we have a contradiction with EDLC at shortstop (led the league in errors) when he can be moved to an OF position. I don’t think it is too much to require Hays to be batting .200 or above like he used to. We all hope that his “luck” changes very soon.
EDLC is fielding better this year, though. Many of his errors last year were throws, and he really must have worked on that. He has great range and leaping ability. The BRM is the gold standard for me, too. What is often forgotten is that, besides being a monster on offense, the team played excellent defense. So did the 1990 Reds. It’s hard for a team to have more than a puncher’s chance if it neglects half of the game.
EDLC is a great shortstop, and has a rifle for an arm. Shortstops will usually have the most errors on the team, as they have
1) the most difficult plays
2) probably about the most plays, except for the 1st baseman (who is on almost every play)
3) have the most difficult throws to any fielder. Only a 2nd baseman turning a double play (to first) sometimes has a more difficult throw.
I can’t understand people who actually watch Elly playing short that think he is a bad shortstop.
I think the Hayes back issue looms large as it coincides with his decline at the plate. Not at all disagreeing with a philosophy that encourages defense and run prevention but there has to be some offensive contributions to remain a starter. There’s a vast difference when you have a top 3rd of the league batting order that can cushion when you have 1 really poor hitter. The Reds just aren’t that team. I think Suarez should see considerable time at 3rd. I’m also in favor of sliding Stewart to 2nd. I think they need to get Lowe as many bats as possible.
Your point about his back would make sense, Jason, if he weren’t making so much solid contact.
Oh, how the mighty wind blows.
As Truman Capote said: “That’s not writing, that’s typewriting.”
By now it’s clear that the main topic of any of this writer’s typewriting is the writer himself.
You mad, bro?
No, I can’t sign on with his D making up for .060. KBH is getting to the point where he’ll have to hit .280 to hit .180….and that ain’t gonna happen. Error yesterday and plenty of balls get by him or over him. I’m not seeing extraordinary range? He’d have to be combination Brooks Robinson/Ozzie Smith to justify that weak bat. Pay the man and move on. He’s always been a horrible hitter
C’mon, even the greats make an error sometimes. If Stewart had picked that ball out of the dirt, we’d be talking about what a great play Hayes made. Joey Votto was one of the best at picking balls like that out of the dirt, but Stewart doesn’t have that kind of experience yet.
As for the rest of the comment, I don’t know what you’re seeing. I’ve watched almost all the Reds’ games, and Hayes’ range looks good to me. The stats for defensive runs saved have him as one of the best as well.
He wasn’t a horrible hitter in 2023 or when he first joined the Reds.
Me either. He hasn’t hit since the beginning of 2023. He’s not a good hitter, sorry facts. Let Suarez or Stewart play 3rd and lowe at 1b. I go back to the pirates making the trade in the first place. His defense is good but he cant hit and the pirates knew that or wouldn’t have traded him inside their own division and the cost and length of the contract is just not a good deal at all.
Lowe should start vs righties and Suarez at 3B with Hayes being a late inning defensive replacement.
Hayes should start vs lefties and Suarez at DH.
I agree with the idea that Hayes has had terrible luck this year, and the stats bear that out. Now, there are some on here who might discount the idea of luck. Honestly, I don’t care if you call it luck, call it “random variance”, if you prefer. But the fact remains that players generally can’t control exactly where a ball goes.
Whether that 105 mph line drive finds the gap, or finds an outfielder’s glove, is largely out of the batter’s hands. And if that routine ground ball finds the hole in the infield defense instead of becoming an out, that’s largely out of the batter’s control as well. All we can do is look at how hard the ball was struck, and how it was struck (liner, grounder, popup, etc.), to judge if the batter hit the ball well or not. Whether that turns into a hit depends on so many other factors.
Now, I’m not saying that Hayes is really a good hitter. He’s not, and the only value you’re going to get is from his defense. But I don’t believe he’s nearly as bad as a .058 BA would imply. If he keeps hitting the ball hard and hitting line drives, the hits will eventually come.
Legend has it that before the All Star Game in 1983, Fred Lynn called out that he would hit HRs from LF to RF during BP. And he did just that.
So I think that good hitters can hit the ball with some controlled accuracy, but given the increase in velocity/spin, many good hitters are more adepts at hitting the ball where it is pitched
He didn’t do that against the pitchers he faced in games, though. He couldn’t have. If hitters can accurately control where the ball goes when they hit it–besides pulling it or hitting oppo–why don’t they?
Almost all these guys can hit it where they want to in BP. It’s hard enough to get a bunt down against game pitching much less direct it.
Francona’s greatest asset to me is having a feel for his players: knowing when to rest them, what matchups are advantageous, also knowing how certain guys add or delete from team chemistry. Marte’s demotion I think had something to do with the latter.
It took Francona time to get to know his core guys. I’m sure he reflected on maybe overusing Elly when he was injured, depending too much on the Santillan/Pagan late inning combination (glad he’s starting to use Tony to finish and maybe giving Ashcraft and Phillips some chances), Friedl wearing down, etc. It’s a marathon. We know that. Getting impatient in April, especially when you’re winning, can be a huge mistake. Hayes will hit enough to justify his glove. Good article Fitch.
I agree to a point. I think hitters can somewhat control which way they hit the ball (i.e., pulling vs going the other way). But beyond that, I don’t think they have that much control.
I mean, most of the time, the difference between a ball falling for a hit, or being caught for an out, is a matter of a few feet. I honestly don’t see how anyone could argue that the batter can control exactly where the ball lands. Unless, of course, they hit it well enough that it lands in the outfield seats.
Re: “But I don’t believe he’s nearly as bad as a .058 BA would imply.”
That is absolutely true.
His current BABIP is .064.
His BABIP the last two years is, 2024 – .279 and 2025 – .289.
To raise his current BABIP to near what it was the last two years he would have 10 more hits and a .277 BABIP.
Those 10 additional hits raise his BA to .250.
Alls I know is that KBH woulda made that play at 3rd in the bottom of the 9th yesterday.
Not so sure if he is as far off of the line as Stewart was, but, I certainly believe he had more of a chance at grabbing it…
I blame coaching for Sal not guarding the line. He’s hardly played third at all, especially late.
I think KBH would have at least kept it in the infield. Getting the guy out at first woulda taken a spectacular play, which KBH has certainly done on more than one occasion, but I’d say that probability was low. I aint mad at Tito for having Sally in there tho. He’s a HOFer and seems to be pushing all the right buttons right now. Would I feel that way had we ended up losing? Errr, idk.
In my view I agree with those who say positioning is what caused that double. KBH may have had a better chance of stabbing at it but there was not much chance of making that play enough to keep it in the infield.
If KBH was playing in the same spot Sal was, no way he makes that play.
Richard, Richard, Richard. It’s the manager and staff who calls for 3Bman to be guarding the line. Hayes couldn’t have even made the play you refer to when positioned the same way either. I can live with KBH starting a game here and there. Tito is decreasing his playing time gradually and I’m sure he is willing to turn on a dime if Hayes returns to respectable offense. However, if Hayes continues this trend even under .150 let alone under .075 expect to see Geno at third most of the time.
It’s quite possible Hayes doesn’t make that play, sure. It’s also possible he reacts sooner and keeps the ball in the infield even if not turning an out.
As for Tito decreasing his playing time, you must have some insider info. What I see is a manager who is determined to use everyone, keep his players fresh and engaged. He’s said as much. Suarez wants to be in the field and I’m sure Tito wants to keep him happy, just as he wants to keep De La Cruz happy at SS. EDLC doesn’t want to play CF and Francona knows it. So, CF is not an option for him and the Reds. The occasional start at third keeps the peace and KBH rested.
And playing KBH “here and there” cripples the his singular value. It makes no sense.
Very Interesting……..Did not know that EDLC stated he does not want to play CF and Tito keeps him happy by playing him out of position at SS.
“Here and there” can mean “occasionally.” It suggests something happening in various places or at different times, similar to how “occasionally” indicates infrequent occurrences.
Merriam-Webster Cambridge University Press
I’m reflective of the game and how difficult it is. These are the transitional steps for offensively struggling players as I see them. 1. Make sure the defense does not suffer too. 2. Give them a day off here and there. 3. Give them a PH appearance in a spot that could boost confidence. 4. Work with the GM to move the player to the IL (if they are a veteran) – allowing them to hit in cages, do simulations, etc. 5. If they have options, option them to the minors.
These steps are part of a 30+ day process. At this time in 2024, I think Aaron Judge was hitting .178.
Richard,
This is a terrific line, ” Yet Hayes’ extraordinary ability with the glove is not only deemed expendable by many, but also seen as a detriment to winning by those who value defense the way small children value their vegetables.” Just wonderful!
That said, there are 2 ways to win games: 1) Score runs, 2) Prevent the other team from scoring as many runs as you scored.
If you can’t do 1, 2 doesn’t matter. KBH matters a great deal for #2, but alas, matters almost not at all for #1. That’s the biggest problem here, as the vast majority of his contact seems to be of the shallow kind that barely leaves the infield/shallow outfield, he’s not even good for sacrifices, so while again, he’s contributing for #2, if he is essentially a net negative for #1, and you KNOW he’s not really going to improve there…what do you do???
Many of the Reds’ wins this year were very low-scoring. Without wishing to be scatological, number one was largely absent, so number 2 won the games. Actually, those wins were a combination of great run prevention and hitting–just enough hitting.
Yeah, I know they’re bottom 5 in run creation. But since that’s directly related to who’s in the line-up…I’d say the correlation to #1 is right there 😉
At my age, #1 is never far away.
@greenmtred, as someone having animal tracking as one of my favorite hobbies, I am all in on any scatology being discussed. Further, as a scatologist, aka scatman, I encourage it. Many fond memories tracking New England’s wild beasts, including catamounts.
We’ve had tracking workshops in my town, DaveCT. Lots of fun, but no catamounts, though a number of people swear they’ve seen them and there have been game camera pictures that are hard to explain as anything else.
Outside of the (naturally occuring) mtn lion that wandered from South Dakota to CT, there have been three confirmations of a cat in the Quabbin Reservoir area of MA by a group I was involved with. It’s most likely a released animal. Plenty of coyotes, bobcats, fishers, moose, squirrel (heh), hare, martin and assorted other beasts to keep you busy with all things scatological.
It sounds like your wild animal population is similar to ours. We have a good black bear population.
I like Hayes, and I respect, appreciate and understand the importance of good defense, but .058 isn’t just bad, it’s terrible. He would have to hit .325 for a month straight just to get to the low .200s. For all his defensive run saving value, he has a negative WaR. It’s unfortunate for him that he’s had “bad luck” and that Friedl, Stephenson, Marte, etc. are also struggling, but that’s all the more reason to get a better bat in the lineup. You can’t have 4+ easy outs every night. Yes, they are 14-8, but they’ve definitely won a few games that maybe they shouldn’t have. Just like Hayes luck might balance out, the Rally Reds luck might also balance out, too. We need runs. And maybe a different hitting coach.
Hayes is very reminiscent of Billy Hamilton in that both were awful with the bat, but both provided value outside of hitting.
With Hamilton, it was his blazing speed.
With Hayes, it is his gold glove level defense.
The non-hitting attributes gained them playing time which their lack of offensive ability didn’t call for, and ultimately leads to the question of how much value in speed or defense does a player need to bring to the team to justify playing time as an automatic out when they bat?
“With Hamilton, it was his blazing speed.
With Hayes, it is his gold glove level defense”
Hamilton never won a GG but he did play GG caliber defense too. Even with his speed and defense it wasn’t enough for him. The Reds moved on and rightfully so in my opinion. He’s never been much of a contributor to other teams since he left Cincy either.
Thanks for this offering, Richard. I’m one who prefers a better glove there and don’t spout the old “should hit better for a … (insert position here) …”
They showed a graphic this week noting his expected BA was at .250 and (I’m thinking” that’s a calculation based on how hard he’s hit it vs. other factors. To call him “unlucky” is spot on in my book.
We do need to distribute more hitting up and down the line-up … kind of like we did when we mashed the Twinkies in the second game. But if you don’t get the outs, the other team keeps batting as well. I’d much rather see great defense at all positions that I would strikeouts. But to each his own.
The game has changed and it is more acceptable having players at (insert position here) hitting less than previously thought required. For instance, when your shortstop is good for 25-30 HRs a year, there is more flexibility to play someone like Hayes. Having both hitting for power, of course, is better. And the uber-talented rosters such as LA blue can afford (on paper) to carry a number 9 hitter like Hayes more easily. But teams today are more willing, given the volumes of (insert data base here), to look at the sum of the parts vs. the individual pieces. As they should IMO.
+15,000
Or choose your own award value 😉
The “bad luck” of Hayes is not as much “bad luck” as it might seem. Teams know that he doesn’t have much power. Even the balls this year that he’s “got a hold of” end up coming down on the warning track. When teams know this they adjust their defense accordingly of course. Most of the hitting game from Hayes comes from short line drives or bloopers. Teams know to play him shallow to take those away. They also know where he tends to hit those short line drives/bloopers. If Hayes “luck” is going to change much he’ll have to show more power and be less predictable because right now he’s pretty much an easy out.
To me the main question about Hayes and his playing time is would he be a regular starting major league third baseman if it were not for the money owed him? For me the answer is a resounding NO. Everyone has their opinion.
I disagree, Melvin. Sure, maybe the outfielders play in a little closer with a guy like Hayes, just as I’m sure they do for other players who don’t have a ton of power. But there’s still a lot of open grass out there. With the amount of hard contact Hayes has made, he should have a lot more hits than he has shown. Those liners and hard-hit balls are just finding gloves instead of open grass.
Hayes’ expected batting average, for the contact he has made, is much higher than .058. The bad luck (or random variance, if you will) has to even out at some point.
I enjoy your comments, docmike, and really like “random variance.” I got gently derided awhile ago for attributing some of Hayes’ hitting struggles to bad luck. May you avoid that fate.
“Hayes’ expected batting average, for the contact he has made, is much higher than .058”
Hayes to his credit does not strikeout much. When a player is hitting as low as .058 and puts the ball in play a lot his BA is likely to go up at least SOME. I agree with that.
Thanks, greenmtred. I used the phrase “random variance” because I, too, got derided for using the term “luck” on here. I was told that there was no such thing as luck.
What I mean by the term “luck”, is the variation of outcomes from a line drive into the outfield, whether the ball 1) hits the open grass in left-center and rolls to the wall for a double, or 2) finds the center fielder’s glove 5 feet to the right and turns into an out. Luck, or random variance, it’s all the same to me. Either way, neither the batter or pitcher can really control which of the two it becomes.
When I was a boy,there was a pitcher named Hank Aguirre.He was annually considered the worst hitter in all of baseball.He wound up after 16 years with a lifetime 085 avg.KBH is closing in on that number. But he is so nice and likeable you have to root for him.Some of those balls have to start falling in. Don’t they???
I remember Aguirre. I struggled with the pronunciation of his last name.
Reds are 14-8 and the offense has yet to take off. I do believe pitching and defense wins championships. I equally believe Hayes will come around. Like Friedl, Mclain, Stephenson, and Hinds….
Even Marte when he is back up and Bleday when he gets his chance. Benson too. This team is building something special. No panic in this team 22 games in.
Friedl has been bad since the first 2 months of last year, McLain has been bad since his injury, Hayes has been bad for three years, Hinds is totally unproven but returns thus far not good, Benson? really?
No reason to believe any of them will be good but they might be less bad at least.
Last season, the LA Dodgers bludgeoned the pitching and defense Reds. Superior hitting beat pitching and defense to a pulp.
The Reds defense last season was not especially good, and the Dodgers did not win by offense alone. I don’t believe anybody is trying to make the case that offense is not important, but it’s curious that people don’t recognize that that the reason the Reds don’t score at will is the other teams’ run prevention ability. And, conversely, the reason the Reds are in first place is, in large part, their run prevention ability. Good teams, with few exceptions, are quite good at preventing runs and scoring runs.
Sure when you have a 300 million dollar payroll!!!!
As I’ve said before, I don’t believe the Dodgers would take Hayes on their roster and certainly not at a starter even with all the offense they have.
“Last season the $350-million-payroll Dodgers bludgeoned the $119-million-payroll Reds. Superior players beat lesser players to a pulp.”
Fixed it for you.
You are correct, greenmtnred, the Dodgers’ pitching was excellent, too, and superior to the Reds.
We were facing a fully operationalDeath Star, far too powerful for our rag tag band rebel scum.
One can spin KBH and defense all day, but actually his chances per game are down from his career averages (55 in 20g). He’s not making a positive difference. Cite all the defensive “metrics”, none of them offset lousy offense. As far as it being April and too soon to make major changes? Wrong, it’s exactly when to make changes, when there’s still time to realize a good ROI. There are folks here that write off Hinds after 114 PAs that swear that KBH will “come around” despite roughly 2600 PAs that say otherwise. As a Red, KBH is hitting .190. That’s Jose Barrero territory, who hit .186 as a Red. And substantially worse than Aquino at .211, Senzel at .239, Candelario .207, or even Moustakas at .216. As the old saying goes, you can’t make silk out of a sow’s ear. Send him to Louisville and see if he can hit AAA pitching. That’s what the others mentioned above tried.
What do you want him to work on in the minors? He’s not striking out. His EV and expected slugging are above average. His expected batting average is a bit below average but not too concerning considering his fielding.
Average batting average in MLB this year is something like .237.
Yes, we’re all aware of your disdain for analytics. Keep pushing the broccoli off the high chair, telling us what a losing trade India for Singer was, and how the Reds best start in years is the perfect time to head downstairs to the panic room and declare the season on the brink of disaster before April is even over.
150 words and you forgot to take your daily Nick Krall potshot.
You’re letting us all down.
Alas Richard, you didn’t let us down. It’s the same condescending comments for which you are famous. Yes, I dislike “analytics”, no question, not because they aren’t sometimes useful, but because people impute meaning that isn’t there, e.g., BABIP. The point of my comments is that KBH’s defense will never be more important than a league average defender at 3rd with a decent bat. KBH isn’t unlucky. He’s a bad hitter.
Alas Richard you didn’t. The same condescending comments for which you are famous. No, I’m not a fan of “analytics”, not because they aren’t sometimes useful, but because people impute meaning that isn’t there, e.g., BABIP. The point of my comment was simply that KBH’s defense, no matter how elite, will never be more important than a league average defender with a decent bat. KBH isn’t unlucky. He’s just not a good hitter.
I don’t know that the decent bat is more valuable than elite defense. A decent bat accounts for, roughly, one hit per game. And far from all of those are meaningful in the final score.
Re: “No, I’m not a fan of “analytics”, not because they aren’t sometimes useful, but because people impute meaning that isn’t there, e.g., BABIP.”
LOL!
You’ve already clearly demonstrated that you have no ideal what BABIP is or is useful for.
Actually Tom not true. Even your FanGraphs article tells you that it’s being used incorrectly here on RLN. It’s affected, according to the article, by three factors not captured in the model: defense, luck, and talent. And if you spend time studying the calculation, looking at edge cases, etc., there’s much less there than most here assume.
Reading is hard.
I’d suggest you go back and try again.
LDS, I agree with the premise that KBH is a below-average hitter. His stats in recent years would support that statement. Whether his excellent defense offsets the lack of offense he is providing, is an interesting debate. You may be right in saying that his good defense is outweighed by his lack of production.
However, you also said that Hayes has NOT been unlucky. And that is just plain wrong. You can see that he is making good hard contact, and his exit velocities have been above average. Statistics show us that a major league player with his batted-ball profile would be expected to have A LOT more than 3 hits out of his 52 at-bats. The only rational explanation is the random variance that determines whether a given batted ball becomes a hit or an out. That random variance is what many on here would call “luck”, because it is out of the player’s control.
A poor batting average with lots of good, hard contact is VERY different from a poor batting average with lots of weak contact. The first one tells us that the guy has hit into bad luck, and would be expected to turn it around IF he keeps hitting that way.
So he’s been unlucky for years?
I’m just referring to this year’s hitting metrics (exit velocity, barrel rate). I’ve not looked at last year’s or the year before that, so I can’t speak on that.
All I can is that looking at this year’s stats and metrics is that yes, Hayes has absolutely been unlucky in 2026.
@LDS
You are 100% correct. Is a hitter really unlucky if he hits it right at someone all the time? No matter how hard the ball is hit, the 9 guys on the field are positioned that way for a reason. This is the silliest argument Ive seen on here for awhile. Good grief. Leave the emotions at the door fellas and use your brains.
Wow, it’s amazing that MLB staffs have only figured out how to perfectly defend only one player in the league and that is Hayes. And more amazingly, this is the first and only year they’ve been able to do it for him.
@LDS, Facts! Couldnt agree more.
I forgot to add great article Richard. Thought provoking for me.
Thanks, Kevin.
Entertaining and inflammatory, Richard. The perfect tonic for a cold Monday.
wOBA .099
xwOBA .305
That’s a Herculean level of bad luck. McLain and Stephenson also have sizable gaps too.
It is crazy how much Hayes has been affected by bad luck (or random variance). Statistical regression would seem to favor his fortunes turning around.
Off Topic
Nick Krall was just interviewed on MLB Network
Some basic softball questions though.
On ABS
No challenges from pitchers.
The held challenge practice during Spring Training.
2nd in MLB on challenge %
No other strategy was discussed, which is understandable.
Gap between AAA and big leagues is huge.
He didn’t know they had the best bullpen ERA in baseball.
I like the ABS policy, and HT to them for getting the correct policy right away. Nicely sophisticated.
I didn’t even read all the comments, but Richard, what a well-timed article to bring them out.
KBH needs to play a lot, AND hit 9th in the lineup. I won’t mention where the offensive problems are, but just look at who is in Louisville and who is on the 26-man (the OF is where the offense needs fixing!).
KBH needs at least 450 PAs, and to start at least 5 times a week, and come in late with the closer the other two games.
If anything, perhaps some consecutive off days to address the back issues.
Anyone else remember EDLC playing 3rd and MM at SS two years ago? Anyone older remember Brooks Robinson making great looping throws from the hot corner to nab a runner at first? Anyone ever seen a player throw lasers from 3rd base like Elly? Anyone else watching Arroyo in AAA? Perhaps at the deadline we can discuss bolstering infield defense along those lines, but until then KBH plays a lot.
This is a well-organized defense of KBH being the Reds regular 3B.
it’s what they are. It’s how they have been built. It’s what Francona understands and it’s how he wins. And wins are the name of the game, aren’t they?
Would Spencer Steer be kind of the top compromise at 3B if Hayes by May 15 for example is hitting below .150?
Steer I think is considered average to slightly below average both Offensivlely and Defensively.
Suarez is probably below average defensively there and I like the idea of him not playing much in the field to keep him healthier for late in the season.
Stewart is becoming established at first and is your best hitter so I don’t like the idea of him switching positions during the season except for late game scenarios like he does now.
You could further slide Friedl to Left, Meyers to Center every day , so actually making the Outfield defense better at Center and Left. Defense would not be as good at 3rd but better in 2 outfield spots.
Not an ideal scenario, but they do have a little roster flexibility so will be interesting to see how it plays out.
I’m not going to do the math, but it seems possible–likely–that if KBH is hitting .150 on 15 May, he’s hit pretty well between now and then.
If he’s hitting about .150 BA in mid May, it simply means he’s hitting the ball the same as he is now, but balls are finding holes at a normal rate for him.
Hayes current BA in Reds first 22 Games
3 for 52 = .058 BA
To be at .150 BA after next 22 Games (May 15th)
16 for 104 = .154 BA
That means he would have to hit the following from now until then.
13 for 52 = .250
Which amazingly, .250 is what BABIP suggests he should be hitting right now without his misfortunes so far. Also is right in line with the .240 xBA his analytic batted ball data suggests he should have.
Great post, Tom.
Exactly what is needed on here.
Thanks, Tom.
lineup out…..i love tito, but, he is determined not to get lowe in the lineup on a regular basis.
If Hayes’ batting average is still below .100 in mid-May or even later, then what?
Not up to me. But your question begs another: Are the Reds still in first place?
With our offense struggling badly so far early in the season, we continue to play Hayes, who gets a hit on average every 7 games. He has 3 singles in 20 games played. No extra base hits, no RBIs, 1 run scored and no stolen bases. Essentially an automatic out in the 9th spot. Stephenson, Hinds and Hayes are the worst 7-9 hitters statistically in baseball at the moment, most likely including the minor leagues. A winning formula? I mean, can’t complain that we’re winning, but probably unsustainable. Oh well, Tito gets paid the big bucks for a reason. Go Reds!
Hate to be a downer but it seems as if the Reds and KBH are at opposite ends of the luck spectrum. The Reds have no business being 6 games over .500. The Reds are last in batting and 17th in starting pitching. Fielding is middle of the pack. Pythag record is 10-12. The only above average thing right now is the bullpen.
Going forward, the batting will probably get a little bit better and the as well as the starting pitching once Lodolo and Greene return. But look for both the Reds and KBH to regress to their means.
I tend to agree. Hayes won’t continue to hit below .100, and the Reds won’t keep winning every close game they play.
Great news on the KBH front. He hit .240 in batting practice today! I was also encouraged earlier because he’s only 0 for 3 verus Undetermined, but now they’ve actually named someone to start so thats off the table.
Go Reds. Go KBH. Get a hit or start a triple play or something. They’re both about the same odds
What? No mention of the chronic back issue that most certainly is negatively affecting his all-galaxy defense, lol? Hayes acknowledged having to re-learn how to perform basic, everyday movements to minimize pain, which included how to sit down, stand upright, and lift objects
Krall trading for Hayes – knowing of the bad back – was a fireable offense. When he SEMI-DIVES for the ball (he doesn’t really lay out) you can see he’s protecting the back. You’d have to watch to see it, though.
I did read recently which I think I’ve mentioned before that Hayes said he always been a good hitter but hasn’t been able to the past few years because he hasn’t been healthy. I assume he means his chronic back problem. I don’t know what he’s going through. It may be truly amazing that he’s hitting this well. It’s certainly not his fault. This right now may be the best hitter he can be.
If it is affecting his defense, it’s amazing–truly amazing–truly he leads the league in DRS, wouldn’t you say?
1st of all, at this stage of his career Geno is not an everyday 3B. I seem to remember that the last time Geno was with the Reds he got a lot of grief for his stationary &revolving-door play at 3B. I have a hunch that Sal is below average with the glove too. I like Richard’s point that defensive runs saved are overlooked. The Reds are in 1st without their #1 and @2 pitchers. KBH is hardly the only batter struggling and this puts his lack of production in the spotlight. The other problem I have is the mentality that so and so is doing so much better at AAA then they should be promoted and that they will not face an adjustment. Or trade anyone not living up to expectations after 22 games. Or even the Reds have a plethora of starting pitchers, and we need to trade from a position of so called strength. I am willing to wait on KBH and others that are still not in mid-season form as long as the team keeps winning. After all, so far, they have gained nothing by subbing out Hinds for Marte and I believe it was overlooked that many Latin players don’t start hitting until the weather warms. In the meantime, just accept as discussion and well-meaning fans the daily dissertations on what the Reds should or should/not do with their roster or lineup.
KBH’s fielding is phenomenal. Hopefully the hits start coming soon. All I can do is echo Al Davis right now. Just win baby!
Elly with a gold glove play there.
Yes, according to Hayes’s xBABIP vs actual BA would indicate he is unlucky, his exit velocity is about MLB average. Barrel % a bit below avg. Hard hit % below avg. Launch angle is highest he’s ever hit (though still very early). At 19 degrees, considered optimal for doubles. But the eye test, when I’ve seen him hit, is that he seems to hit it right at someone or they don’t have travel very far . No one seems to be robbing him of anything (unlike, let’s say, Stephenson when he connects).
That said, I don’t think Hayes is the trouble with the Red’s offense. Friedl and McLain at the top of the order and Hinds (so far, though maybe he’s turning the corner) and Marte before him and a slow start for Steer (although he’s still poses a danger and started the last two late inning rallies) are what’s causing the drag.
Just another great read Richard. Thanks you!
Keep the good stuff coming.
We continue to talk about a guy who isnt even hitting .100. The Reds and this writer will continue to try making you think he has value over another third basemen because of the ridiculous contract he came with. Stop telling people not to believe their own eyes. Its not as if there will be a hole on the infield at third base if he wasn’t on the team, there would be another major league third basemen playing there. The small difference defensively between the average third basemen and Hayes does not justify the automatic out in the lineup. You guys constantly beating a point over the head does not make it true.
What makes you say it’s a small difference defensively between Hayes and the subpar replacements the Reds have?