When the best pitching performance on the night goes to the backup catcher you know that things probably didn’t go well. And that’s exactly how it went for the Cincinnati Reds on Friday night in a 10-2 loss to the Los Angeles Angels as their losing streak moved to three games.
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Angels (7-7) | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| Cincinnati Reds (8-6) | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| W: Kochanowicz (2-0) L: Burns (1-1) | |||
| Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
Los Angeles had nothing against Chase Burns in the 1st, but things went their way a bit in the next inning. Burns would issue a 1-out walk and then back-to-back 2-out singles loaded the bases. The Reds right-handed starter then walked the #9 hitter in the lineup on five pitches to put the Angels up 1-0. A quick visit from pitching coach Derek Johnson seemed to work as Zach Neto grounded out two pitches later to end the inning.
The top of the 3rd inning began with Mike Trout hitting a long fly ball towards the 370 sign in right-center, but TJ Friedl jumped at the wall and robbed him of a home run to keep the deficit at a run and maybe earn a nice dinner courtesy of Chase Burns. The inning wasn’t going to be scoreless, though, as Jorge Soler doubled and then scored on a blooper that fell between Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer with two outs to plate the second run of the game for Los Angeles.
They would tack on more in the top of the 4th. After getting two outs on just four total pitches, Burns walked the #9 hitter again and he once again paid the price for that as Zach Neto hit a 2-run home run to dead center to make it a 4-0 ballgame.
Cincinnati was able to get on the board in the bottom of the 5th inning with the help from Angels pitcher Jack Kochanowicz. He would issue three consecutive 1-out walks to load the bases before TJ Friedl brought a run in on a groundout to first base. That run was all they would get and Los Angeles got it right back in the top of the 6th when Josh Lower led off with a home run that made it 5-1.
Connor Phillips entered the game for the Reds with one out in the top of the 6th and was able to pick up two outs on just three pitches to strand a runner. He would strike out three batters in a scoreless 7th inning, too. Sam Moll took over in the top of the 8th and after getting a pop up to begin the inning he issued back-to-back walks. That led to Kyle Nicolas being called into the game as he made his Cincinnati Reds debut after being traded for on March 4th. He gave up a soft line drive single to load the bases with Mike Trout due up. Nicolas walked him, bringing in the second run of the game for the Angels on a bases loaded walk. Jorge Soler then unloaded on a 98 MPH fastball, hitting a grand slam deep into left-center to make it 10-1.
Cincinnati would get one of those runs back when Elly De La Cruz hit a 2-out solo home run in the bottom of the 8th. When the top of the 9th rolled around the Reds sent backup catcher P.J. Higgins to the mound and he retired the side on 10 pitches. Tyler Stephenson would single in the bottom of the 9th but he was stranded there as the game ended.
Key Moment of the Game
Zach Neto’s 2-run home run in the 4th inning. It made it 4-0 and for a struggling offense that felt like an insurmountable lead.
Notes Worth Noting
The Reds offense had just four hits and went 0-4 with runners in scoring position. Elly De La Cruz, Eugenio Suarez, and Tyler Stephenson all reached base twice. The rest of the team went 0-21 with three walks.
Five players in the starting lineup ended the game with a batting average of .182 or lower.
Ke’Bryan Hayes is now 3-34 to begin the year.
The Reds have scored 41 runs in 14 games. Only the Seattle Mariners have scored fewer runs with 40 of them in 13 games.
Cincinnati pitching combined for eight walks, gave up three home runs, and allowed 10 hits.
Up Next for the Cincinnati Reds
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cincinnati Reds
Saturday April 11th, 4:10pm ET
George Klassen (0-0, 6.75 ERA) vs Brandon Williamson (1-1, 4.76 ERA)
The Reds must still think it is spring training and results don’t matter.
I dunno about that. Matt was tearing the cover off the ball until the real season started. Most of the lineup can’t hit their weight. Last in offense is absolutely pathetic
Could it simply be because of injuries and age that Friedl,Steer,Hayes and even Ty Steve are just not going to hit to the back of their card ever again?I am sure they will get every chance and I am hoping to be wrong but after 14 games well ouch and ouch again.
Ty Steve is under 30 in a contract year. He’s going to wish he took the Reds extension offer.
“The Reds have scored 41 runs in 14 games. Only the Seattle Mariners have scored fewer runs with 40 of them in 13 games.”
Yep. The Reds are also:
27th in BA @ .202
26th in OBP @ .287
28th in SLG @ .321
28th in OPS @ .608
Our offense is not exactly humming along.
The Reds use different metrics.
Hope? 😉
Those numbers are actually better than I expected.
Better than last I guess. 🙂
Silver lining? 😉
The Reds are also 29th in BABIP and 8th in EV.
They are also 29th in wOBA (.282, MLB AVG is .315), and 20th in xwOBA (.310, only .005 behind Lg Avg).
In last nights 10-2 loss, Angels had 12 Hard Hit Balls, the Reds had 9. Only 1 of the Reds 4 hits was on a hard hit ball. They went 1 for 9 in hard hit balls, where the expected BA on a hard hit ball is like .500.
Hmmm, wonder what’s getting ready to happen here?
Good info, Tom. Thanks.
“Hmmm, wonder what’s getting ready to happen here?”
We’re most likely going to keep losing if we don’t improve. That’s what’s going to happen. 🙂
“We’re most likely going to keep losing if we don’t improve. “
I hope we keep losing then. I’d love a 93 win season.
“I hope we keep losing then. I’d love a 93 win season.”
I have no idea where you’re getting 93 wins from but I’ll take it if you can make it happen. 🙂
Reds are 8-6, that’s a .571 WP which is 93 wins over a 162 game season.
“Reds are 8-6, that’s a .571 WP which is 93 wins over a 162 game season.”
I’d be very happy if they can keep up that pace. Unfortunately the way the offense is going it’s very doubtful.
Feel free to prove me wrong. 🙂
Probably nothing
Should have traded some prospects from the minors for a abive average outfielder that hits left handed and doesn’t need to be platooned.
Maybe they tried and failed. But Elly,Stewart,Suarez and a good hitting Left hand bat would have balanced out the lineup more. Put one of the outfielders on the team in AAA.
Two games having no hits with RISP… Bad approach, poor at-bats, chasing a lot…I don’t know what have to say the hitting coaching staff but… they should change this at this point, especially when they still are playing above .500 mark don’t let the spiral arises and gets the losing streak very long… The pitching hasn’t been good last three games….it’s concerning…
In spite of what the fans are clamoring for, the Reds don’t have outstanding hitters in the minors. None really project as above average hitters.
Our major league hitter are far below the average of major league hitters. Players swinging like the have no clue of the strike zone
Many of these Reds players should not be in the major leagues at all. They would be lucky if they could play in AAA. This will be a long long year for the Reds offense. Would not be surprised if the Reds are dead last in the MLB in every offensive category. Burns, Lowder, and Williamson are learning to pitch, they are young. They can not be expected to have good outings every time they pitch. Hunter Greene causing the Reds to lose games. Because he is injured again, it forces the Reds to have to rely on young guys to pitch that are not ready to pitch in the big leagues quite yet.
The offense HAS to make some changes! Also, I’m beginning to think our pitching, especially the starters, isn’t as great as we thought, or been led to believe
I mean I think it’s fair to counter this with the Reds are missing two guys who threw 264.1 innings with a combined ERA of 3.10. That’s going to change the whole “led to believe” thing a little bit. But also, even after tonight’s debacle, the team ERA is 3.83. The pitching is doing just fine.
The Reds Offense is reminding me of the Bengals Defense.
Both teams have the potential, but each of the Red’s and Bengal’s front office can’t seem to combine major parts to become top teams.
Let’s just swap lineups. I’ll bet Burrows can hit.
Agree with a previous poster that some of these Reds might be on a permanent downhill slide like Friedl and Stephenson and Steer. Benson, Marte, and Hayes are a bit younger and have really never been above average hitters. Question becomes what would happen if you sent Benson and Marte down and DFA’ed Hayes and brought up Bleday and Hines and HRod. Maybe same result but more likely a significant improvement.
That does happen. In the early to mid 1960s, Reds such as Gus Bell, Wally Post, Johnny Edwards, Jim O’Toole, and others reached their peak and declined.
Fortunately, the Reds had some good replacements coming along in the minors or from trades.
@OldTimer>> Your last sentence above may qualify for an all-time understatement award 😉 😉
By 1968, the following guys were Reds (1968 age/ bWAR in parentheses):
Pete Rose (27/5.5)
Tony Perez (26/5.9)
Lee May (25/3.5)
Johnny Bench (20/5.0)
All these guys were homegrown Reds.
And then there was that guy Alex Johnson (25/3.1), acquired in a trade, who folks our age recall had most likely stolen a pennant from the Reds in 1964 with his triple play starting catch when playing with the Phillies
The “old guard” on that 1968 team was Leo Cardenas and Vada Pinson, both homegrown Reds then at the ripe old age of 29. Pinson, who should be in the National HoF, ended his Reds career with 47.7 bWAR (1.3 in 1968). Cardenas was a 4-time NL All-Star at shortstop who posted 14.8 bWAR as a Reds player.
That 1968 Reds team won 83 games and finished 4th in a 10-team divisionless National League.
DeWitt made a terrible trade (1965) but built a strong minor league system. Howsam made key trades and kept the minors going in the late 1960s.
There’s no question the Reds have done very well in the development of pitching. But they need to take some chances to redevelop offense and again become a good hitting team. Since Red’s ownership is not able to spend big money on free agents, that must be done by trades or call ups from the minors. To be a consistently winning team you’ve got to have both pitching and offense.
The Reds should be able to pick up some good players in a few years.
They will trade Elly and possibly Mclain before they become free agents.
It looks like they both want to be on the west coast.
Should bring in some good talent then.
They know how to draft pitchers high in the first round, Id stop short of saying they develop pitching. Chase Petty hasnt developed. Chase Burns and Hunter Greene were top 3 picks in the draft. Lodolo and Lowder were picked high in the first round and spent very minimal time in the minors. They have done a good job with Abbott, but they have hardly developed offense or pitching. Mey and Maxwell still cannot throw strikes consistently.
Their philosophies are throw hard and swing hard. “Hey, everyone else does the same thing!” Thats all we hear when we question how the Reds do business.
Justin, you can’t state Chase Petty has not developed. He was acquired at age 18 and reached the MLs weeks after turning 22. That alone is ‘developed.’ He just turned 23 a week ago and has thrown two lights out games in AAA with one stinker. Of course he was derailed last year but only after July. And, it followed a breakout in 2024. As far as getting derailed, he was also promoted well before he was ready, got hammered, was sent down, then promoted again, twice, to sit on his butt in the bullpen for two weeks at a time. That caused his innings to actually drop from 137 in 2024 at AA to 112 last season in AAA (with an added waste of 6 innings in the MLs). So, where might he be if they had used him appropriately and increased innings to 160-165 last season? Chase Petty is developing just fine. The better question is where does he project. For those expecting a number 1 or 2 starter, he was never projected to be that. Ever. Most projections had him as a solid number 4, perhaps number 3 on his best years. So, realistically, Petty’s ETA as a back end starter shouldn’t be before late 2026 or 2027. He’ll have at least two more seasons starting at AAA to prove he has ML ability. Then, at the old age of 25, he can be considered a bullpen piece. All of which is right in line with being a late first rounder (26th overall). Last, check out Doug’s article on his development of his changeup. It is pretty encouraging.
https://www.redsminorleagues.com/2026/03/30/cincinnati-reds-prospect-chase-petty-unveils-a-new-pitch-in-2026-debut/
Dave, the Reds traded Sonny Gray for him. Did they think trading a top end starting pitcher for a guy that after 6 or 7 years may develop into a key bullpen piece/back-end starter would be a fair trade?
That’s not the issue. You said he has not developed. He has, and is continuing to do so.
I’m adding that fan expectations for Petty to be a number 1 starter have not been realistic and won’t be.
So, fans saw “Sonny Gray” and “Chase Petty” in the same sentence and made the assumption he was Hunter Greene. I understand that is fans being fans, but still. Don’t get upset someone is projected to be what they have always been projected to be.
What did the Reds think they were getting in a salary dump? Who knows, but it is basically impossible they thought a 26th overall pick (vs a top five or top ten pick from a pitching factory), from a cold weather state, whose delivery has begun to be changed already by the Twins with him dialing down his velocity, was a sure fire ace. Doesn’t add up.
It’s just Petty’s unaltered story. It might not match certain storylines, however.
They’ll eventually hit better than this, but it’s hard to have any confidence in this lineup in a playoff series.
Some of these guys have been hitting like this for multiple seasons now, not weeks. Maybe that’s why it feels so disappointing at times, it just feels like this stretch of poor hitting has gone on for a decade now. There have been very few seasons in the last 10 or so years where I have felt confident about our offense being able to hit in a playoff series.
“Playoffs?! Don’t talk about— playoffs?! You kidding me? Playoffs?! I just hope we can win a game! Another game!”
It’s not a surprise that the Reds’ situational hitting is poor. Been that way for years now.
Our pitching is young but shows promise. Hitting is another story.
I wonder if the Reds could have received a above average MLB hitter this past offseason for Lodolo or Hunter Greene, or maybe Lodolo plus one solid prospect? In hindsight that probably would have been a wise move because of the Reds need for Offense and the consistent injuries Greene and Lodolo have.
There’s a lot of players off to terrible starts, including Josh Naylor with Seattle hitting I think .102, so Hayes, Friedl, etc. not the only ones. But the concern with the Reds is their Offense was bad last year, and it seems to be collectively bad overall.
Seems to be a lot of parity though early in MLB overall. Even Colorado, Washington playing decently.
Hey Jeremiah. I touted trading one of our starters for an above average hitter during the off season. It seemed logical to trade from one of our strengths to fix one of our weaknesses. Push back was you can never have too much pitching and the like. Then we got Suarez who did not cost us one player and that seemed to (and might yet still) fill the power hitting void we had (had for years). Trades are always a risk for all parties concerned but given how long it has been since we sniffed any real glory it was more than worth it IMO and still should be. At any rate it is still early and I don’t think this bad of hitting will last the entire year and we can still make that trade if we stay in the hunt.
Looking for something positive to say about this game, perhaps it will make Apple think twice or more before they choose another Reds game for Friday Night Baseball 😉
haha I have a feeling they didn’t get a lot of Reds viewers tonight. 🙂
Didn’t get me: I discovered that my subscription had to be renewed and I concluded that I could live without it. Certainly looks like a good call at this moment.
Last night was the best $12.99 I never spent on that Apple subscription renewal.
Absolutely!
Mr. Hinds didn’t have a bad night even though he did strikeout once. From Doug’s minor league roundup:
“Rece Hinds went 1-4 with a walk, steal, and a run.”
His EV on his batted balls was 104.1, 100.6, and and 94.9 MPH.
He’s now at .341/.451/.732/1.183
For those who don’t get it (It’s worth it) another bit from Doug’s minor league roundup.
“JJ Bleday went 2-5 with 2 runs and an RBI.”
“Rece Hinds and JJ Bleday both extended their on-base streaks to 11 games. Bleday had the two hardest hit balls of the game at 111.8 MPH and 109.9 MPH.”
The numbers fro Bleday are now at .326/.453/.512/.965
Ridiculous in that Reds won’t make a couple of moves after 14 games. Those who aren’t hitting were not hitting in ST either, so it is much more than just 14 games. The Reds are now like a T Ball team with the top of the lineup (minus Friedl) is where all of the Runs must come from.
Hayes needs to be used only as a defensive replacement at this point. The Benson and Marte experiment should be over. They are AAA players at best . Steer is not far from that either. Think out of the box for once and try something else!
@Melvin >> I was disappointed with Hinds K on Friday. It came in the top of the ninth with the Bats leading 7-1 and a man on 3b with 1 out.
From an opening 2-1 count, the strike being called on a hung sweeper, Hinds chased two consecutive sweepers. The first was clearly wide of the zone. The second, for strike 3, appeared never to be a strike vertically and ended up in the dirt.
I won’t go as far as saying he looked like he just phoned in the plate appearance, but it looked to me like he lost his focus after the fat sweeper he took. Perhaps he was upset with himself for not going after the kind of pitch he has been nailing so far this year.
Nevertheless, even with the game well in hand, that situation, where a run can be scored without a hit, is the type I like to see a player fully bearing down on in every PA because the next time it comes up could be with a game on the line.
“I was disappointed with Hinds K on Friday. It came in the top of the ninth with the Bats leading 7-1 and a man on 3b with 1 out.”
I was too in his last PA. Mentally I was telling him to “Keep your head on straight and cut the crap out. You’ve had a good game. You’re a good hitter. You’re better than that. Cut the crap out.”
It was just one AB though. Lately when he has a mental lapse he bounces back in a big way. We’ll see. He’s learning to be more consistent.
That’s one thing about Hinds. He seems to keep on learning and improving. He’s made tremendous strides. That’s something you can’t say about most. He’s not come close to hitting his peak.
Y’know, I wonder who it is that has been saying the last two seasons that they should trade unreliable Hunter for someone who could actually hit a baseball. Anyone know who that is?? Hmmmmmmmmmmmm, it’s right at the tip of my pea brain. Hmmmmmmmmm.
So I am going to contradict myself from a earlier post about being calm and relaxed. Belday and Hinds are hitting the ball. Reds outfield is not. What can it hurt bring up those two and sending down Marte and Benson?
Still early in my opinion to get all upset and annoyed. Yet, this does seem like a broken record with some of the players.
Hopefully today’s game will be a bright one!! Instead of the gloomy game lastnight.
“So I am going to contradict myself from a earlier post about being calm and relaxed. Belday and Hinds are hitting the ball. Reds outfield is not. What can it hurt bring up those two and sending down Marte and Benson?”
Absolutely sir. It’s much better than sitting around on your hands waiting and experiencing a slow painful agonizing death and just HOPING it doesn’t happen. DO SOMETHING to try and stop it.
Yeah, you already know I try and stay positive from years of commenting.
Yet. Lastnight was just annoying listening to the game on the radio. They did it last year too. All seem in a funk at once and then bam. Score 6 runs a game for a week. Maddening. Lol
I get wanting to bring up players from the minors who are hot to replace guys not hitting. But don’t get too excited about their great stats, it’s AAA. We’ve seen this before, guys tear up AAA pitching and then can’t hit MLB pitching.
I think it’s safe to say that KBH isn’t a ML level baseball player, his roster spot is being wasted.
The Hayes deal is going to go down as one of the worst trades the reds have ever made…,especially when everyone knew he cannot hit major league pitching
Especially since it helped a division rival
Boycott the Reds, find another team to pull for this season. Watch MiLB.
Until there is an organized effort by fans to call for new ownership, nothing will change. Make these chumps lose large amounts of money so they will sell.
Stop buying tickets, stop buying Elly jerseys, stop streaming.
If a satisfying product is not offered, stop buying it.
Eleven Reds had 40 plate appearances and managed four hits. Certainly evident that offense is a problem across the board, except for Sal. But the half of the game that is run prevention has been a story for the past few games, too. How many games do we suppose a team could expect to win when the opponent scores ten runs?
Yeah, a bit hard to win when a team is scoring like an anemic hockey team and the opposition is scoring like a (US-style) football team.
But Hayes plays good defense! Hopefully people now understand the one or two extra plays a week will not overcome his horrific bat. Some fans think his glove is worth it. Maybe it is, but not in this lineup. He will end up being another “sunken cost”
Its not all Hayes fault but anyone who was using their head (not their heart) knew what this offense was going to look like.
No one is waiting in the wings and they have shown us they will not make trades to help this team midseason. I do not think they know how to fix it. Got to roll with what they have.
The question is whether people also understand that a good number of hits make no difference, either. What difference did Elly’s solo shot in the eighth make?
I would like to see some changes to lineup and/or see a couple other guys at AAA get a shot. First move is to get McLain out of the two hole. Can’t have a strikeout machine hitting second. Would first try Marte, he had some success there last season. Later in season maybe as early as mid May I expect Hector Rodriguez will be called up handed LF and two hole and are we won’t have to worry about it again. I would drop McLain to 8th when you play Hayes, 9th when Lowe is in lineup… McLain is just lost at plate. The off speed stuff thrown outside and in dirt he just can’t lay off of
And why not JJ Bleday up now while Rodriguez is growing into his presumed future role at AAA? His current AAA OPS is .964.
The Reds paid Bleday $1.4m on an MLB-level deal to get him as a nontendered FA, and his career OPS+ is 98 to Benson’s 92 career OPS+ in half again as many plate appearances as Benson.
Elly MM Sal (3B) Geno Hinds Lowe Bleday Stephenson Friedl with Steer as the 1B platoon and floater. Myers platoons w Bleday. Friedl and MM flip flop is TJ is outproducing him. Atleast Elly is getting the most at-bats and Sal/Geno pick up add-on at-bats every month
I doubt that group really thrives either? Blowing it up is probably the best answer. They can’t count on HG. Hopefully he’ll look good when he returns and trade him. Or maybe someone would overpay when he’s ready to return? #7 seed is the ceiling for this group and thats going to be a stretch normally imo. Every year its trying to put lipstick (Suarez) on a pig. You need major surgery and you get 2 Tylenol
The Pete rose curse is alive and well.
His ghost is blurring the vision of our hitters and tipping off opponents what pitch is about to be thrown.
Tito is too nice . We need a manager that the players fear and hate .
Marte’s bobblehead day is today. I would say that if he plays and does nothing, or he doesn’t play he is sent down tomorrow, along with Benson. Hinds and Bleday brought up, or Hinds and Dunn, either way I think today is his last day with the Reds until he can get sorted out at Triple A. Benson, I don’t know, think he has taken it about as far as he can.
“Benson, I don’t know, think he has taken it about as far as he can.”
Benson is a good guy. I get it. He’s a big guy. I get it. He works hard. I get it. However, it’s time to face that he’s just not that good if you want to win.
He doesn’t hit for average. He doesn’t get on base well. His career numbers are:
.223/.300/.415/.715
He does have some power but not as much as you might think. In 1062 PA he has a grand total of 37 HR.
As a 26th man he’s okay but there’s really no reason for him to be taking a roster spot over a decent better player. He’s not a main part of any winning team.
So far this year in 31 PA he’s been even worse: .179/.258/.286/.544
Is it time to face facts and move on? The answer is yes to me. He has options left. SEND HIM DOWN.
After reading all these posts, there’s nothing left for me to say. I agree with everyone who said the time is NOW to bring up Bleday and Hinds. What did Tito say to the players before the beginning of the season? “The time is now.” Well, FO?
Last night Tito said:
“I fully believe that guys get to their level, as long as they’re healthy, and I will enjoy watching that. I hope it starts tomorrow.”
Francona seems as if he has ‘his guys’ and sticks with them.
“Francona seems as if he has ‘his guys’ and sticks with them.”
Too much at times to me. None of us are perfect. 🙂
Half jokingly, but in order to accomplish that, they’ll all have to hit above .400 for the next two weeks.
When you’re in a hitting funk, change is needed or else it goes on. Hope will not get it done.
Dunno if having a GG winner at 3B — whose OPS is rivaled by that of Johnny Cueto — is the perfect plan. Not saying what they ought to do, but they ought to stop pretending the offense will “come around.” As the season matures, so do the pitching and scouting reports. If BABIP is the solution, that’s a pretty weak crutch to be hobbling along on.
Maybe others should stop pretending that the offense won’t come around.
Most everyone only has two knees, so might want to be more cautious on how many knee-jerks one does before they ruin one of them.
It was one of the worst in baseball last year and never improved. Outside of the trio of Elly, Sal, and Geno, why should we expect anything different this year? 2023 was three seasons ago now. CES is gone and the rest of the young talent on that team aside from Elly regressed mightily.
We are just watching the games, Tom. Our eyes just see something different I suppose. Nobody thinks they will not eventually get hot but its obvious this isn’t going to be an offensive juggernaut. They lack in the talent department.
BABIP is a crutch. It doesn’t mean the player is unlucky, no matter how many times some here or in the baseball media say that. Hayes just isn’t a good hitter. Period. After three years, that should be evident. And sadly, it’s beginning to look like that’s true of a number of the Reds, e.g., Benson. And Friedl is starting to look like he’s going to have some trouble bouncing back. As for Valaika? I don’t know if he’s a good hitting coach or not. I think they spent a lot of time last year unlearning some bad habits. The Bell strategy of swing for the fences, strikeout, and run recklessly has been abandoned. It’ll take time to show sustained benefits. So, it’ll take some time to know. In the meantime, you don’t waster April doubling down on folks that aren’t producing and apparently not putting in the effort, e.g., Marte. Especially when Krall’s “big” OF signing is in Louisville and Hinds is continuing to destroy the ball. You make changes now, not in May or June when you’re 10 games out of 1st place and fighting for a wild card. That’s just bad management.
Regarding BABIP, Rod Carew spent 19 years in the majors and had a career BABIP of .359. Tony Gwynn had a 20-year career and finished with a BABIP of .341. Rose did 24 years and had a BABIP of .319. Were these guys just “lucky” for two decades? No, they could hit. And it doesn’t matter who you look at, good hitters hit and the BABIP follows, not the other way around.
My understanding is that, as you say, good hitters tend to have high BABIP’s, but that there is still a significant element of luck. One would think that hitters with high EV’s might tend to have relatively high BABIP’s, since a hard-hit ball reduces the effective range of the fielder. The Reds are, evidently, hitting the ball pretty hard, and that suggests that the luck may improve and more batted balls may become hits. Carew, Gwynn and Rose were very accomplished hitters and not known for their home run power, so a hitting approach that favors getting on base might help, too.
Yep, goes back to the whole inferential vs descriptive thing. Finding correlations in data and assuming it means something is a pervasive problem, not just in baseball, but in medicine and science. There isn’t an explanatory model underlying BABIP. There’s a formula for calculating it that has some correlation with past performance. Hence, it has no predictive value. One isn’t unlucky because his BABIP is low. Their BABIP is low because they aren’t hitting. The analytics craze is the perfect manifestation of “Revenge of the Nerds”.
Thank you for the perfect example of how someone who doesn’t understand BABIP and what it is useful for would butcher it’s use.
There’s probably a strong correlation between low BA and low BABIP, as I assume you are saying. But when we add decent EV’s to the mix, I think it gets a bit more complex. My understanding is that “place hitting”–a phrase in use when I was a kid–doesn’t mean picking a spot to hit the ball–just out of reach of the shortstop, say–but something more like left, right or up the middle. Pitchers are too good to make pinpoint hitting accuracy more than a myth. Do solid contact and high exit velocity that result in a liner to the second baseman indicate poor hitting? Or bad luck? Not that I’m comfortable with the concept of frequently repeated bad luck….
Over time, there is no such thing as “luck” in hitting. That is quite frankly silly. I could say more, but then it might sound like I was trying to be mean or insulting. But really? Luck?
That Stan Musial, he was one lucky guy. And so was Ted Williams. Luckiest guy in the world. Lucky Ted, they called him.
Even the Iron Horse, Lou Gehrig, admitted he was the “luckiest man in the world”. So yeah, it’s all about luck. 🙂
As the one time manager of the Reds, Sparky Anderson once said (sort of paraphrasing), “The cream always rises to the top. If you don’t rise to the top, maybe you ain’t got no cream anymore.”
He didn’t say that you don’t rise to the top because you aren’t lucky anymore.
Seriously Tom? What’s am I missing? Tell me the “magic” of BABIP.
@Greenmtred, the question boils down to, do better hitters have higher LA, EVs, etc? And can a hitter improve by altering the LA and upping their EV? I would suggest former is likely true, on average, while the latter is probably false. Or said differently, getting Arraez to alter his LA and swing harder isn’t going to turn him into Ohtani.
How would you characterize a hard-hit ball that is caught by the shortstop? Particularly if the shortstop has to make a great play to catch it? Nothing in the discussion of luck suggested that players all have the same level of talent: of course there are hitters who are consistently better than most and hitters who are consistently worse. But luck–another word, I think, for chance–isn’t really affected by that. Luck–if it exists–stands outside of talent.
Good take, LDS. Good discussion.
Good hitters make their own luck. Hitters who have a hot streak over 4 days and revert to their TTO numbers are lucky. Rece Hinds hitting 5 HR in one weekend off Miami doesn’t mean he’s Juan Soto without the endorsement. But if we are saying BABIP is a stat that embraces luck, then that’s what BABIP is … adding that “balls in play” is part of it.
Re: “Seriously Tom? What’s am I missing? Tell me the “magic” of BABIP.”
Yes seriously.
Grab your top hat, wand, and rabbit. Then take a photo of yourself with those items and send it to Doug to post here for us to see.
Now go to the following link and read the first 3 paragraphs.
https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/babip/
Good Luck!
Thanks Tom, but nothing in this article contradicts my comments. In fact, in the article itself, it clearly states that most people here are misusing BABIP. Further, a “model” which is affected by three external factors: talent, defense, and luck, none of which are quantifiable, isn’t particularly useful. Further, if one looks at the edge cases in the calculation itself, then all kinds of anomalies are obvious. That’s why the article says you need at least 2000 balls in play to begin to infer meaning. A lot of the roster may never see 2000 balls in play before being optioned or releasaed.
LDS states:
“Regarding BABIP, Rod Carew spent 19 years in the majors and had a career BABIP of .359. Tony Gwynn had a 20-year career and finished with a BABIP of .341. Rose did 24 years and had a BABIP of .319. Were these guys just “lucky” for two decades? No, they could hit.”
LDS states:
“Thanks Tom, but nothing in this article contradicts my comments.”
Your comment above correctly illustrates that good hitters carry BABIPs much higher than a MLB average BABIP which is typically about .300. Where you run astray and clearly misuse the tool is by incorrectly implying that these guys are lucky because their established high BABIP is far above the MLB average BABIP of around .300.
From Fangraphs:
“A player’s BABIP over a large sample can tell you something about the quality of the player, and big deviations from a player’s career average BABIP can tell you something about their luck or the performance of the defense. League average is around .300 and hitters are generally more capable of sustaining BABIPs significantly above or below .300 than pitchers.”
The Fangraph article clearly states that a batter may be lucky or unlucky if their BABIP deviates by a big amount from their established BABIP, larger sample size the better.
For Example:
Gwynn BABIP BA OPS OPS+
Career .341 .338 .847 132
1990 .315 .309 .772 112
1994 .389 .394 1.022 169
Gwynn’s .315 BABIP in 1990 (which is .026 below his established career BABIP) may be an indication that his decrease in production in 1990 could have been because he was unlucky that season.
Gwynn’s .389 BABIP in 1994 (which is .048 above his established career BABIP) may be an indication that his increase in production in 1994 could have been because he was lucky that season.
Hayes BABIP BA OPS OPS+
Career .303 .250 .668 84
2026 .086 .079 .225 -35
Hayes’ .086 BABIP in 2026 (which is .229 below his established career BABIP) may be an indication that his decrease in production in 2026 could have been because he was unlucky that season.
With the line up Tito is putting out today I am losing faith in him. Friedl still first, moving Steer to 2nd what a joke.
I’m not losing faith in Tito. However, I’m not gaining faith in Krall and company. Since we’re at zero to start there’s nowhere to go but up. The lineup again is fielding 5 guys hitting under .200. Maybe Steer finally has a good game. In general, if the Reds were decent, some of these guys shouldn’t be starting, e.g., Hayes, Steer, etc. And Marte, as I said last year, has a commitment problem. Vastly talented and looking for shortcuts.
At least McLain is out of the two hole. When McLain is next in lineup I would like to see him hitting 8th or 9th. He had some success there last yr. Should take some pressure off him.. will see if Steer does anything in 2 hole…
Build your offense on traditional stats—BA, HR, RBI—and use advanced stats to fill in the bench. Advanced metrics can be subjective; results aren’t. Traditional numbers balance out over a season. The Reds have leaned on advanced stats with poor results—Krall even cited them when trading for Hayes and signing Candelario. Don’t ignore what you see with your own eyes. Exit velocity and splits are fun to look at but ultimately don’t matter—season-long production does. Splits can help the manager in situations but building team using advanced stats is silly. Look at this team for example.
Justin, Yes, yes, yes, a thousand times yes. The only thing I would add to the standard three is on base percentage. Tells the tale of most any hitter.