The Cincinnati Reds enter today with an 0-1 record after a loss on Opening Day that saw them get shutout. The team only had four hits on the day and three of those belonged to Sal Stewart. Elly De La Cruz had the other one. One national baseball writer seems to think there’s going to be plenty more where that came from for the Reds shortstop. Keith Law of The Athletic picked De La Cruz as his 2026 National League Most Valuable Player in his preseason predictions (subscription required) article.
You don’t have to squint too hard to see that Elly De La Cruz could put up a big season. Two years ago he had a 6.6 WAR season (Fangraphs). Last year that that dipped to 4.3 as he struggled in the second half while playing every day with a torn quad that seemed to cost him both speed and power.
The 24-year-old is healthy this year. And he’s looking to build on some of the positives he showed last year. He cut back on his strikeouts, going from 31.3% to 25.9% and did that while maintaining a solid walk rate. And at least in the first half he was showing more power than he had in the past.
De La Cruz is still at an age where players tend to keep improving. If he can take another step forward from what he showed when he was healthy in 2025, things could get very interesting. Despite playing with a torn quad he still finished second in the league in stolen bases. With Terry Francona the Reds have been more apprehensive on the base running and base stealing, so it probably isn’t likely that De La Cruz is going to push for 70 steals, but he could probably get 40+.
In the power department, he was on pace for 30 home runs at the All-Star break. So it doesn’t seem out of the question that if he’s healthy all season that 30+ home runs could be in play. And if there’s a little more contact improvement again in 2026 then his average could get a bump up, too.
All of that, though, does sound like an “everything goes right” scenario. And it’s close to it. Staying healthy for a full season usually involves some luck. Guys get hit by pitches and sometimes that’s just a few inches difference between a broken finger and just a sore forearm. Collisions in the field happen, both with baserunners and with teammates. Being able to avoid being injured on stuff like this is mostly just luck.
One thing not yet discussed is the defensive side of things. Playing shortstop provides tons of value simply because not many guys are capable of playing the position and still being able to hit enough against big league pitchers to be worthy of being in the majors. De La Cruz is not the best defensive shortstop in baseball. That’s not because he lacks range or heaven forbid the arm to play the position. He simply makes a lot of errors and that has limited just how much value he’s bringing from the defensive side of the game. The arm can be a difference maker and we’ve all seen it in action. But it can also be a difference maker for the other team when his throws get by the first baseman.
If he’s able to lower the number of errors he makes then he’s going to see his defensive value skyrocket. He’s already getting a boost because he’s a shortstop, but if the errors come down he’s going to climb the ranks at the position when it comes to the value on that side of the ball, too. He would hardly be the first shortstop in the history of the game to have some defensive issues in his early 20’s that was able to clean things up with more experience.
There’s a whole lot of “what if” in all of that. If Elly De La Cruz is going to be an MVP then he’s going to have to get better in just about every area of the game. He’s going to have to hit for a higher average than he has in the past – much like he did in the first half of 2025 when he hit .284. His power output is going to have to go up – also like it did in the first half of 2025, but probably even more so. The defense is going to have to get better, too. All of those things don’t seem unreasonable, but they are also something he’s not yet been able to do over the course of a full season. Keith Law thinks that maybe this is the year. And maybe he’s right. We’ll have a much better idea about it all in October.
Maybe so, if he can stop swinging wildly at pitches FAR out of reach. A base on balls is as good as a single and, in Elly’s case, distracts pitcher and defense no end.
A walk is not as good as a single. A walk is good, but it’s not as good as a single because it doesn’t necessarily move other runners up a base.
Yep, on that point I’m sort of corrected, but in many cases, a hit doesn’t move runners up. In Elly’s case, just having him on base yields other threats, such as a steal or the possibility of an infield error . . .
Arguments in the relative value of walks versus singles can be made on both sides. A 10 pitch walk can affect a pitcher more than a first pitch single, as one example. A walk is better than a single that results in a runner being thrown out on the bases, as another example.
Funny how when Reds pitchers give up walks every commenter reports that the sky is falling for too many walks, yet I never see complaining about too many singles.
One constant in baseball is inconsistency, especially among commenters.
Elly looked more selective inspiring training than he did in game #1. But again, it’s game #1. I keep reminding myself if we ONLY lose 50 games this year, we’ll have one of the best records in the last ~50 years with 112 wins. That’s baseball. Elly’s Achilles has been swinging at low off speed stuff since he got to the Majors — which he’ll continue to get until he proves he can let it go. He has a big opportunity to improve in this area with the ABS protecting pitches at shin level being called for strikes. Now it’s Elly’s turn to improve. ?
I stated about a month ago that I think Elly will compete with Ohtani and possibly Kyle Tucker for the NL MVP. Assuming they stay healthy I think these three will all finish in the top 5. I think Elly will be the best offensive player in baseball this year. I am not sure if that will be enough to neutralize Ohtani’s pitching or the fact that Ohtani and Tucker play in a big market where they get hype and attention
Ohtani is a high bar for Elly to clear. Fifty homers, a fair number of stolen bases and he pitches, too. Pitches really well.
Should be noted that Law specifically states he won’t pick the same people two years in a row, leaving Ohtani off-limits for his predictions. That said, there’s plenty of high level competition, and choosing EDLC out of the bunch is still high praise. I think we all believe he’s capable of it though, a full healthy season as finally gets his major league sea legs could be a historic one. Here’s hoping.
It will be interesting to see if Tito allows the players to run more. Much of Elly’s talent lies in his speed and creating havoc on the base paths.
Getting an MVP caliber season would be big for the team as they try to make the playoffs again. Beating Ohtani will be difficult if he remains healthy because he is hitting and pitching and probably being incredible in both situations.
I predict that this writer will either be right, or wrong.