The Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants faced off in a game of prospects versus prospects on Thursday night under the lights. One team showed up and stepped up in the Spring Breakout and the other team largely did not. Cincinnati’s prospect squad crushed the Giants 10-1 in Scottsdale, with San Francisco not getting on the board until the bottom of the 9th inning.
Cincinnati didn’t hold a lead in this game for about two minutes. Carlos Jorge led the game off with a bunt single. Two pitches later Hector Rodriguez crushed a 424-foot home run to make it 2-0 and that was as close as the game remained the rest of the way.
Chase Petty started the game for the Reds team and he dominated the Giants, holding them to just one hit over his 4.0 innings. He left the game with a big lead because in the top of the 4th inning Cincinnati sent 10 batters to the plate. The first five batters reached base. Ryan McCrystal had a 2-run single, Hector Rodriguez had a 2-run single, and Carlos Jorge drew a bases loaded walk in between there as they built a 7-0 lead. Two innings later the offense was at it again. Kien Vu and Cam Collier bad back-to-back 1-out singles and then both came around to score when Jirvin Morillo doubled off of the wall in left-center.
Cincinnati would tack on another run in the top of the 9th inning after back-to-back walks began the frame. A fielders choice where the third baseman hesitated on where to go with the ball led to everyone being safe and the bases loaded with one out. Adolfo Sanchez grounded out, but it brought in the team’s final run of the day as they pushed the score to 10-0. The Giants would score in the bottom of the inning when Scott Bandura tripled to start the inning and then scored on a single by Santiago Camacho.
After Chase Petty shut down San Francisco in the first four innings it was Aaron Watson and Jose Montero tossing a shutout inning each. JP Ortiz then took over and shut them down in both the 7th and 8th innings while striking out three batters.
Both Hector Rodriguez and Cam Collier had two hits in the game. Steele Hall, 2025’s 1st round draft pick, walked in both of his plate appearances.
You can see the box score for this game here.
Notes for Friday
The big league club returns to the field on Friday. They’ll be playing on the road at night against the Chicago Cubs. Brandon Williamson is set to face off against Matthew Boyd in a lefty-left matchup. First pitch is scheduled for 9:05pm ET.
It was 95 in LA today, which it doesn’t get to often even in the summer in about half of the city…and Arizona was in triple digits.
Very fun game to watch, but these last handful of ST games are not going to benefit the pitchers, I think, and mess even further with their stats.
Hope the boys stay safe out there.
How is it looking for Nathaniel Lowe? I read he has an opt out starting today. Is that correct? Will he make the team?
The typical arrangement with Spring opt-outs is that if a player triggers the opt-out, the team has 48 hours to add the player to the 40 man and keep them, or grant that player’s release.
I don’t know specifically if that is the agreement in Lowe’s deal, but from what I read it seems as though it is something similar.
So I assume if Lowe triggers the opt out today, the Reds have to make a decision on him by Sunday.
Thank you.
Havent the Reds released veteran players on a ST invite in the past earlier than cut down day so they have a chance to hook on with another team as a matter of professional courtesy. The fact Lowe is still with the team 48 hours before flying east would suggest he is getting the final spot and as a proven lefty bat with GG caliber defense at first base who can DH or come of the bench that would be my choice with Benson/Friedl/Marte as your OF and myers being the right handed OF bench guy and Steer as an everyday rover and Stewart mostly your first baseman.
I think it comes down to Lowe or Bleday. I’m not sure I have a preference. They’ve both had good Springs but they are also both established players so how much Spring really weighs or should weigh in that decision, not sure.
Bleday: guaranteed $1.4M, has an option.
Lowe: probably will lose him if he is not added to MLB roster
Rostering Lowe is the only way to keep both. So that may well be the way they go.
I believe they have, old-school, as well as hanging onto guys without options until the very, very last second to DFA them so they can try to slip them through the wave of other players in similar situations.
Which brings up the point, they may actually acquire someone in the last few days, too, though it may be less likely this year. Still, with Ferguson out and Moll a bit iffy this spring, and Nicholas not ready and Maxwell being Maxwell, i can see them snaring a bullpen arm that might be worth checking out.
@DCT – Moll has been iffy this Spring?
Random stat of the day: Bleday is a career .088/.225/.176 as a pinch-hitter, 3 for 34 with a ton of walks. Lowe is .259/.290/.370, 7 for 27.
Tiny sample, don’t read too much into that, but if the job is “pinch-hit for Hayes vs RH when we’re losing” JJ will need to exorcise a monkey on his back. Then again I am not a huge fan of rostering too many 1B/DHs, so, six of one half dozen the other, this call probably isn’t worth losing sleep over. I’d go Lowe if it really is down to these two, and half expect Bleday to end up as the everyday RF soon regardless.
Moll has 6 BB in 9 innings.
149 pitches, 82 strikes. 55% strike percentage overall and only 57% in March with the bulk of his appearances.
I wouldn’t read too much into Moll’s control in ST. It takes him a long while to get his velo up. He finally did this last outing. And I suspect the control has something to do with trying to get his velo up.
But his last outing his pitch map looked better, as did his velo. I’m on board with Moll now.
I won’t mind Sam Moll succeeding at all!
Just wondring aloud.
You are correct Votto. The Reds have to make a decision on Lowe today. I see no way they release him. They either trade him (or someone else) or send someone else to Louisville. Right now the players on the bubble are Marte, Hinds and Bleday. I am fairly certain Hinds will be one of the two players in Louisville and think Marte is the second player who will be sent to Louisville.
Nick Krall said the other day that Lowe has an opt out today and the team has until Sunday to decide on whether he’ll make the team or not (which would of course make the decision for Lowe – he’s not gonna opt out if he makes the team).
I’ve never said Marte is guaranteed not to make the Reds’ 26-man roster—I’ve just consistently said he isn’t a lock.
At this point, I think Bleday, Benson, Lowe, and Myers have all moved ahead of him for various reasons. That still doesn’t make it a certainty he’s headed to Louisville—it just means the competition is real.
Mark Sheldon’s recent comments seem to back up what I’ve been saying, especially compared to the earlier claim (from Doug’s article) that Marte was a lock for the roster.
https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/mining-the-news-3-16-26/
Will Benson is out of options, so for the moment, the Reds are going to keep him. I would not be surprised if the Reds make a trade in the next 24 hours to help fix some of these roster situations. I frankly can’t see them sending Marte down to AAA. I would like the Reds to keep Hinds over Myers, but they also owe Myers money too.
I don’t see them cutting Bleday. He is owed $1.4 million, and he did have a decent Spring. Also, left handed power (like Benson), which the Reds need a little more of.
I don’t know about Nathaniel Lowe. Left handed power, but only a 1st baseman, or DH. And he has an opt out which he will probably exercise today. He is not going to AAA Louisville. He won’t accept that, and his agent is probably making calls right now if he takes his opt-out.
Will Benson is not out of options. But the Reds have already stated he is going to be in Cincinnati to open the season and with good reasons.
The Reds owe Myers money no more than they owe Hinds or Marte money. That said I agree with you and think he will be in Cincinnati as the perfect platoon partner to Benson.
I agree with you on the Bleday situation. I don’t think the Reds will let Lowe walk.
My Projections:
Nathaniel Lowe – A proven bat who essentially fell into the Reds’ lap after a down 2025 season. Technically, he could be released or traded at any time, but that feels highly unlikely. I expect him to be on the roster.
Sal Stewart – Elite hit tool, and now he’s starting to show real power. He looks like a long-term piece—someone who could be in Cincinnati for the next 5–6 years.
Spencer Steer – I hadn’t even considered him as a potential cut until it was mentioned recently. To me, he’s always been a lock. His versatility, especially as a backup middle infielder, makes him too valuable. I expect him in Cincinnati.
JJ Bleday – Another player who landed in the Reds’ lap after a rough first half in 2025. He rebounded with an .801 OPS in the second half, which absolutely plays. He’s had a strong spring, and his $1.4M guaranteed deal gives him an edge—teams don’t like parking that salary in AAA. He makes the team.
Will Benson – The version of Benson we saw after his call-up last August looked like a completely different player. This spring, he’s backed that up—more walks than strikeouts is a great sign. The Reds have already said he’s going north, so this is more confirmation than projection.
Dane Myers – A perfect fit as the 26th man. He also pairs well as a platoon option with Benson in right field. I expect him to break camp with the team.
Noelvi Marte – He simply hasn’t performed at the same level as the names above this spring. You could argue he’s had a pretty underwhelming camp overall. The three home runs stand out, but the 13/1 K/BB ratio is a major concern, and the defense hasn’t been particularly strong either. Unlike Bleday, he doesn’t have a guaranteed contract—and unlike Lowe, he has options. That likely sends him to Louisville.
Rece Hinds – As spring has gone on, the strikeouts have started to creep back in. That likely puts him in Louisville to start the year.
I wouldn’t hate it if they sent Marte to AAA, I just don’t expect it.
Marte’s BB rate is a concerning part of his game. But I’d be shocked if he isn’t selected. He was a top 100 prospect for several years, top 25 once. He’s got offensive upside & defensive upside. This is not Aquino, who was never a top 100 prospect.
Good point Hype. We should compare Marte to players who at least once in their career were a top 100 player, had a terrible walk % and were a liability on defense.
1st player that comes to mind to me is in the Reds system. CES. Maybe the comparison should be CES vs. Marte.
CES wasn’t (and isn’t) in Marte’s league as a prospect. Not sure we have one in recent memory, given his bat, power and speed, other than Elly.
I am not saying Marte is equal to Elly. Elly’s defense and elite speed separate him. But they have a similar set of strengths. Prior to Stewart’s arrival, there was some validity to the idea that the near future of the Reds offense was front and center on Elly and Marte, and there still is, with Elly as elite middle infielder and Marte as prototypical RF, batting 3/4 in the lineup. Stewart’s prior untapped power now present in games changes that to a trio.
It’s not like Marte hasn’t realized his talent. He has, and at ages 22, 23, and 24. However, he has yet to put together a successful full season on the ML’s, and that’s a big hole in his resume.
I think all of this conversation about whether he makes it opening day will be very narrowly focused on his defense and not his bat or, especially, on other issues ie his motivation. And, on this club, with this manager and front offense, defense carries great weight.
Off topic question.
Why are they playing two games in Milwaukee to end spring training? Anyone know?
I assume they will be able to use guys from minor leagues as well, and will it be a full 9 innings? Just seems odd to me with opening day being Thursday. To play on a Monday and Tuesday for really no reason.
They’d be playing in Arizona on Monday and Tuesday if they weren’t going to Milwaukee, so it’s not “for no reason”.
But this is just a way for the Brewers to make some additional money and maybe the Reds get a little cut of that like they do with all other road games.
With the Louisville Bats starting their season on Friday, I would bet that along with all of the guys the Reds are taking north to Cincinnati that a few guys slated for Louisville will also be with them in Milwaukee to give them a few extra guys for the trip.
I kind of love it. Let the hitters see some pitches that behave like they do under normal midwest humidity, give the outfielders a few reps tracking fly balls against upper decks, spend a few days just living in cold weather and let your body adjust, eliminate a bunch of excuses.
As kind of requested by Hype:
When I evaluate a hitter, I care about four things: K%, BB%, ISO, and OPS—with BABIP as the lie detector for OPS.
Now look at these two lines:
• K%: 26.6% vs. 23.4%
• BB%: 3.1% vs. 2.2%
• ISO: .156 vs. .169
• OPS: .695 (.320 BABIP) vs. .611 (.223 BABIP)
At first glance, one looks clearly better. But once you account for BABIP, these are basically the same hitter—and it’s not a hitter you want in your everyday lineup.
Let’s be blunt: you cannot be a productive MLB bat walking 2–3% of the time. That’s not a slump—that’s a profile.
• Player 1: Noelvi Marte (2nd half of 2025, riding one hot month)
• Player 2: Christian Encarnacion-Strand (2025)
Different hitters, same underlying truth: they do not control the strike zone — at least not yet. Until that changes, you’re not looking at lineup anchors. You’re looking at volatility and hoping for hot streaks.
For comparison sake here are the profiles of Bleday and Lowe over the same period as Marte:
• JJ Bleday (2nd half): 30.6% K, 7.2% BB, .243 ISO, .801 OPS
• Nathaniel Lowe (2nd half): 23.7% K, 13.5% BB, .131 ISO, .693 OPS
Curious, did you use Marte’s second half because the full year didn’t fit your narrative as well?
The big difference between the two is chase. CES can’t control chase because he can’t recognize pitches very well. And while he has decent success in MiLB against lesser competition, he gets exploited in MLB due to that glaring problem. He doesn’t K a lot in MLB because he has a propensity to make weak contact when he chases. Pitchers get a lot of cheap outs with him.
Marte doesn’t have that same problem with chase. He could do better, but if controlling the zone is your premise, then examining chase should be part of that.
MLB O-Swing average: 28%
CES: 47%
Marte: 33%
But again, Marte has been a top prospect in baseball for a long time. He deserves the chance to build on his 2025 success. I’m not even sure if CES was ever on a national list.
Using the prospect status of each of these two guys while discussing only their bats is a bit silly. If CES was a shortstop/maybe third baseman instead of a maybe third baseman/likely first baseman he would have been a much higher regarded prospect than he was. His bat isn’t why his prospect status wasn’t that of Marte’s, it was because of Marte’s ability to play somewhere in the field at a much higher level.
I agree Doug. Their defensive profiles certainly weigh in their value. But I also assert that Marte has had, and continues to have a more well rounded offensive profile, while CES has holes in his that aren’t easily solved. And I think that also contributes to a difference in value between the two.
The current value? Yes. Their prospect value, which ended multiple years ago for each? I don’t think so. At least not by a meaningful amount.
There’s a ~70% chance Bleday is a better player than Marte this year, imo. I still start the season with Marte as starting RF and let him play his way out of the role.
Two reasons. 1, Marte’s tools are real (big raw power out of a fairly compact swing is no joke + you can never have enough bad-ball hitters) and that means he’s important in the long view. Therefore if he does get sent to AAA I want him feeling hungry and unfinished, not just bitter and blocked. I am willing to sacrifice 0.1 expected wins giving April to the slightly-worse-on-paper player to protect the vibes with a player I’m committed to. 2, Marte’s ceiling is higher and his best-case scenarios are way better than Bleday’s. Draw to the nuts, as the poker guys say.
It’s a close call. The decision that mattered was Benson and they got that one right.
Good post Noyes. I will add a couple of things as a means of providing a bit of a bigger picture for you.
1. Francona sent Marte to the minors last year and it seemed to motivate him. When they brought him back up the “motivated” Marte had an OPS of .884 in the first half.
2. These guys are professionals and should not need reasons to give 100%. Nor should there be circumstances that makes giving less than 100% acceptable.
3. Isn’t it a disservice to the entire team if you don’t bring your best 26 to Cincinnati? If you want to make decisions on potential, Rece Hinds should be in Cincinnati also, and before Marte because man can he mash when he connects.
The players probably think Marte is better. Players respect tools. We hope they’re professionals, they mostly are – they’re also human and Marte has some reason to believe AAA is beneath him right now.
Honestly, I am with you in being pretty low on Marte. Just can’t picture him hitting 30 homers year in year out, and if he doesn’t, what is he? I think he’s trade bait long term and the question is when and how to get max value. Hence “what’s best for Marte’s development” as tiebreaker. Cultivate that asset, baby. He thrashed AAA last year and did fine in the majors. Might as well see where he’s at, what if anything he needs to work on.
Whatever they do with this roster spot I will shrug.
I think you may have missed my point Dave, which led to a different interpretation of what I was trying to say.
All I was doing was giving Hype an example of a top-100 prospect with a comparable bat to Marte—nothing more. Back in the summer of 2023, Marte was ranked 24th while CES was 72nd, which is a significant gap. However, that gap was largely driven by defensive value, and at this point it’s fair to say Marte’s defense has been a concern.
From a hitting standpoint, the comparison is much closer:
Minor league OPS by level
CES: A+ – .968, AA – .934, AAA – .935
Marte: A+ – .824, AA – .815, AAA – .743
The reason I grouped CES and Marte together is that both profiles are driven by their bats, and neither has shown much tendency to draw walks. That was the specific context of the comparison. And when you look at bats only, CES and Marte are great comps.
The interesting thing is people have moved on from CES. Maybe it is time to move on from Marte as well.
CES has no problem with MiLB. He’s a perennial all star against lesser competition. If the Reds could play against MiLB pitchers, I would want CES as my starting 1B.
Alas, MLB pitching is so much better and lack of pitch recognition gets exploited to the nth degree.
I don’t see CES and Marte in the same category, that’s a big part of it.
You won’t find CES in many conversations as a core piece of a franchise but you do with Marte, for one, even at CES’ peak value.
Then, consider tools.
Power and arm, similar.
However, bat, fielding and speed, Marte is considered better.
At the least, CES has a very significant issue with chase rate that was terribly exposed by ML pitching. And, while Marte’s BB and K percentages did not play well in his PED year, his K% returned to 2023, although his BB% only improved nominally (also while in a large transition year). We’ll see for 2026. Jury is out.
Further, CES is also limited to 1B/DH (forget 3B). Marte is learning RF and a candidate for CF and is still more versatile as well as valuable.
Add age and place in their respective careers: Marte is playing in his age 24 season. CES is playing in his age 26 season. Marte is ascending in his career while CES is fighting for his ML life. I don’t think there are many who would find Marte has stalled or plateaued.
Just thinking it’s at least 1-2 seasons early to move on from Noelvi, given his upside and being controlled, and given the years-long search for a RF with power.
Now, if Rece Hinds beats him out, and/or they move Marte to CF, and, and, and … I will, of course, listen.
By move on from CES and Marte, I mean that I don’t think either of them belong on the opening day roster. I still hope one or both of them eventually figure it out.
I just think the learning process belongs in AAA vs. the majors.
I think it was silly to anoint Marte as a lock because of his 8.5 K/BB ratio in the 2nd half of last year. This spring it currently sits at 13/1.
Again, he may be in Cincinnati on opening day. I just don’t think he will be. I guess we will know in the next several days