The Cincinnati Reds and Tyler Stephenson had their arbitration case yesterday and today we found out that it was the player who won the hearing as reported by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Cincinnati made an offer of $6,550,000 and Stephenson countered with $6,800,000. That difference was small in the context of the offers but they couldn’t come to an agreement before the hearing.
After presenting their cases to the arbiter it seems as though the better case was made by Stephenson and his agent than by the Reds front office. The catcher will get $6,800,000 for the 2026 season. This year is his final year under team control and unless he signs an extension he will be a free agent following the year.
In 2025 Stephenson played in 88 games and hit .231/.316/.421 with 18 doubles, 13 home runs, 37 walks, and 116 strikeouts. Those strikeouts nearly matched his total from 2024 when he had 117. But he played in 50 more games in 2024 than he did in 2025, struggling to make contact throughout the year last season.
For his career, Stephenson has spent parts of six seasons with the Reds. He made his debut in 2020 when he played in eight games. The next year he took over as the starter and played in 132 games and finished 6th in the Rookie of the Year Award. In his career he’s now played in 558 games and has hit .261/.338/.426 for his career. That .764 OPS translates to a 104 OPS+.
Stephenson, who turned 29-years-old late last season, will be splitting some time behind the plate with backup Jose Trevino. Last year the two of them helped the pitching staff lead the majors in ERA+ (ERA after including park factors for where they played all 162 games). The two of them will be looking to try and help repeat that again in 2026 with a cast of guys that are returning, mixed in with a few new faces.
Seems silly not to agree to an amount anywhere between $6,550,000 and $6,800,000. Hopefully no ill will and a great season ahead for Stephenson.
The league discourages teams from negotiating one-year deals after the two sides file for arbitration. They believe “splitting the difference” deals grow arbitration deals faster than they will grow by allowing the arbitrator to settle cases. I seriously doubt the Reds put up much of a fight at the hearing. It does seem silly to me as well, but this is one of the aspects of MLB’s CBA that I would offer we should expect to breed contention and seem silly to us as fans.
With the amount of data, that’s all the team needs to do – present the data. They don’t have to bash the player. Let the data rule.
And, if the player asked for a reasonable number and they’ve been good, they probably should win. But if a player asks for the world and hasn’t been good, they need to take the hit. The Reds didn’t lose in arbitration this year because everyone is still me paid a reasonable amount.
It’s contract year. This is the year that will determine if Stephenson’s next contract guarantees him over $50 million or less than $10 million. A disappointing year could lead to a 1 year deal somewhere next year for similar money. A good year could lead to a 2-3 year deal worth about $10 million a year. A great year could lead to a 4-5 year deal making $12-$15 million a year.
Which is why I thought Tyler would have settled – to get another year of security – rather than max only $250k.
Considering there was on a relatively small difference in numbers and that they couldn’t come to an agreement outside of arbitration I doubt TS has a very good “taste in his mouth” with the Reds. I wouldn’t say the Reds have treated him well.
+10,000
On the other hand, this is the process that the players and owners agreed to and have used for a very, very long time. If either side expects the other side to go above and beyond the CBA WRT compensation, they have unrealistic expectations. What is clear is that Stephenson is not interested in an extension, or the two sides are far apart. We can expect him to leave after this season, and from my perspective, that’s too bad.
Sometimes it shows good faith in simply doing the right thing and the Reds failed to do that here. Theres really no excuse for it. The other guys in that clubhouse see it too. Just a bad look over $250k, thats hotdog revenue from a Tuesday night game. It feels like this team is ran by an equity firm.
We really don’t now how any of this went down; I leave the speculation to you.
The optics are bad and it sure seems unnecessary.
I agree that the optics are bad, but this is the agreed-upon process, and it has been for decades. I just try to keep that in mind. From Charlie Goldsmith’s interview with Stephenson, he is open to an extension with the Reds. So, I don’t think the players are caught off guard by the occasional case that goes to arbitration. Moreover, Stephenson won his case, and most other players have won their cases, too–winning is good!
I’m not one of those guys who believe Stephenson will have his feelings so irretrievably hurt by arbitration that he will need counseling until he’s 55 years old.
Stephenson did not have a good season last year. He only played 88 games, struck out at an alarmingly high rate, and had an OPS+ of 98, although he was a bit better in the second half. Stephenson is intimately familiar with those facts, and he wasn’t going to get his drawers in a wad by the Reds pointing out those facts at the arbitration.
The team can still negotiate an extension with him. But let’s face it: the catcher of the future, starting in 2028 and maybe the end of 2027, is Duno. Stephenson is likely looking for a 4-5 year extension, but he knows (or should know) that Duno is the future and that the Reds only really need Stephenson through 2028.
It’s a business. If Stephenson goes out and has a good year, which we all hope for, then some team will pay him.
There was some great video out yesterday of Duno – the Florida State League MVP at age 19 – recently working with Salvador Perez of the Royals on his catching.
There’s also the possibility that any bad taste in the mouth comes as much from the business side of pro sports as it does with this or any other organization. Tyler’s a mature guy, so I don’t think he harbors any illusions about the contract process, with the Reds or elsewhere. Some guys simply have their contracts renewed — that can’t feel good.
The conflict over a few hundred thousand is probably as much about Stephenson holding steady for as high a salary floor as possible, looking at his next contract. Heck, my union used to take a raise even if it was delayed until the last month of the contract, just to get a higher negotiating floor.
Not sure how bad a taste I would have for someone who offered me $6.5 million. The arbitration process is a players won perk in the union agreement. Back in the 70’s you could count on Rose and/or Bench to hold out in the negotiation process each Spring Training. When the first would sign the other would sign a few days later for just a little more than the first . Many times the team would paint the player as a greedy person uninterested in the team, Didn’t seem to be any hard feelings after that process. Tyler should be OK. it’s business.
I like him as a person, but he hasn’t exactly panned out as many fans expected. He has been a disappointment. Hoping he has a great year and can get a great contract in Cincy or elsewhere.
Agree. He hasn’t lived up to expectations. Not even close. But I also understand good hitting catchers are a rarity. So maybe he hangs around until Duno is ready for his chance.
His K rate went up by over 10% last year. If he can get that back down to the levels it used to be at he should be in for a much better year. Hopefully he is healthy. Nearly a 34% K rate last year, his previous worst K rate was 26%
The ugly under-belly of the arb process … at least it’s over now.
I hope TySteve has a stellar year and reaps a huge payday in 2027 and beyond (or whenever they play baseball again after this season).
The Brewers are at it again.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/02/brewers-trade-caleb-durbin-red-sox.html
It would seem they will be in need of a third baseman now and that other moves are coming. hint hint 😉 I’d be shocked if the they traded for you know who from the Reds.
Regardless who wants to bet against them winning the division again this year?…not me.
It’s an interesting trade where they picked up some pitching depth for their 3B. They are a fascinating franchise to watch, but I’m developing Cardinal-like in-season disdain for them.
It may be an interesting study to see how much they draw fans for their relationship with players or as compared to winning. I’d lean towards the latter.
Hate them all you want, but you have to respect their player development pipeline and their ability to rehab talent that has struggled elsewhere.
“They are a fascinating franchise to watch, but I’m developing Cardinal-like in-season disdain for them.”
I sure hate the way they consistently “kick our butts” every year but I respect them greatly for what they do/accomplish. I’d much rather be in their shoes. They strive to WIN.
“It may be an interesting study to see how much they draw fans for their relationship with players or as compared to winning. I’d lean towards the latter.”
In my view when it comes right down to it winning always trumps fans relationships with players given a choice. Of course having both is what every fan wants most of the time?
Thank the Lord the Reds didn’t sign Santander. Been a disaster so far for Toronto.
Small favors 😉
He had played a ton the 3 years before his first year in Toronto where he missed most of the first year, and now looks like he will miss a lot of his second year. Maybe his body just broke down a bit with these shoulder injuries. Reds definitely dodged a bullet not signing Santander.
Gives you long term concern for Steer, Arroyo, and McLain and their past shoulder issues. Shoulder surgeries have been performed much longer than elbows but recovery success has really trended more towards elbows than shoulders lately.
Yes, it has… I just saw the news about him being out most of the season. Oh well I wasn’t really counting on him much anyway after last year.
Extend the man!
With Stephenson entering his 30’s next year and Duno 2 years away, I am hesitant to extend him beyond 2028, which probably doesn’t work for him. If he really had a big year this year, I wouldn’t be opposed to overpaying him for 1 year by extending him a qualifying offer. If he turns it down sign a vet FA catcher on a 1 year deal and get a draft pick. If he accepts, then you have your bridge to Duno.
While Duno is still a catcher now, it may be hard to foresee him as an ML catcher at his size. Still, I don’t know how good he really looks behind the plate. I really hope he can cut it as a catcher.
Stephenson is a decent catcher, but it is a position that is fraught with injuries. The Reds already have a bunch of guys that can “play first base”, and good ML catchers are actually kind of hard to find.
Duno is plenty athletic back there and pretty much no one who actually has watched him is saying he needs to move off catcher soon. They just see the size and assume. Duno is quicker and faster than Stephenson.
They list Duno as 6’2″, 210, which is nonsense.
But he is not as big as Salvador Perez, now at 6’3″, 255, and entering his 15th MLB season for his age 36 season.
I wonder if Stephenson would be better if he moved to 1B at some point in his career, if he’d become a better hitter? It seems he has the potential to have a 25HR 100RBI year, but injuries, inconsistency, etc., have kept him from having that kind of season.
My understanding is he’s not considered great defensively? But he’s considered an above average hitter for a Catcher of course. He was so inconsistent last year and struck out so much it seemed. Maybe recovering from the injury kind of threw him off.
A big year for Stephenson though…being a free agent year, I could see him having a good year. It’d be good for the Reds of course, and good for his career. I really don’t see him returning to the Reds after 2026. It feels like this is probably the last year for Stephenson as a Red.
I just don’t think his bat is big enough for 1B, my personal opinion.
I hear you, maybe DH though? I just wonder if you were his agent, family, for his career, future contracts/money, etc. what would be the best move for him. I think I’d consider trying to change towards more of a DH/1B if I were him. I think partially because he’s somewhat injury prone.
I think he’s best off for his career at catcher this year in hopes that he has a healthy, big offensive year. That could get him a big, 4 year deal and then try to transition to another position as soon as possible. That’s my inner agent opinion. What do you think?
I think this year will be the key for what direction he goes. If he has a big year this year as you said, I could see a 3-4 year deal for him somewhere as a Catcher. He’ll be an interesting Free Agent Candidate for sure.
Hopefully he can cut down on the strikeouts this year.
Going to arbitration over $250k strikes me as dumb. My guess is Stephenson plays elsewhere next year, if not sooner. Don’t understand the FO’s thinking sometimes.
It seems the free agency for Stephenson and the Reds is coming one year before they would like. Duno isn’t ready for the big leagues maybe until late 2027. What will the Reds FO do next year about the catching position? Make a 1-year deal with any veteran free agent catcher? Extend Stephenson for 2 years? Trevino is signed thru 2027 with a 2028 team option….Candy and Singer will be out of the books in 2027 so about $25MM could be reassign…
If for some unfortunate reason the Reds are way out of things come deadline time; they should 100% trade TS to a contender. My most likely course of events here is that when the season ends, he gets a QO and probably rejects it. Just doesn’t seem like he wants to stay, but it’s hard to know for certain without being in the room.
It’s a shame that Ty never quite fully blossomed, but I suppose there’s always this year. If he does, he’ll be a hot commodity.
If he has a season like 2025, you can’t give him a QO, because he will take the $21-22 million and go elsewhere. If you risk the QO, you better be ok with him taking it, because it’s definitely a possibility. Anything short of an .800+ OPS season this year and I think he probably accepts it.
True point, but I’m optimistic about him improving a bit if healthy, and I think with the general scarcity of catchers who hit well, he might end up getting the offer.
Re: “f you risk the QO, you better be ok with him taking it, because it’s definitely a possibility.”
It would be a dead cinch guarantee that he would accept the QO and foolish for the reads to offer it.
Good article on the Stephenson situation. Let’s see what Krall & Co do this spring.
https://charlieschalkboard.substack.com/p/entering-a-contract-year-tyler-stephenson
So, what do you think? How high a priority should extending Stephenson be for the Reds? I’m torn. He’s good, but extending him will reduce the Reds’ ability to plug holes next offseason. Stephenson has never really had that breakout year, and coming off 2025 when Trevino caught more games than Stephenson doesn’t make this an ideal time for him to sign an extension from Stephenson’s perspective–he knows he can’t expect top dollar given his body of work. From his perspective, why not bet on yourself and hope to be the top available receiver on the market next offseason? From the Red’s perspective, a shorter extension makes sense. With Duno developing well, long-term doesn’t make a lot of sense.
I see extending Stephenson as a high priority. The catcher position will be one for which they will be plugging a hole for next offseason if they don’t.
I see a 2 year extension to bridge the gap to Duno as the ideal solution. They have him for ~$7M this year, I’d could see extending him for $10M with $2M of GS started bonuses in 2027, then $12M with $2M of GS started bonuses in 2028, then a $15M Club option in 2029.
I can’t see Stephenson doing better than 3yr/$36 in next years FA market even if he has a career year. His playing time track record will keep him from getting top dollar.
I see that as a fair contract for Stephenson and the Reds are set at C until Duno arrives in 2028.
If the Reds can’t get him extended, they need to deal him for a few prospects at the trade deadline.
BTW, Dodgers put Rortvedt back on the waiver wire today. I guess it’s the Reds turn to claim him back now. LOL
All good points, Tom. I like Stephenson, but I’m not sure the two sides’ time horizons will allow an extension. I would love to see a 2-3-year extension. Rortvedt’s DFA is kinda funny–we’ll see if the Dodgers get their way this time.
Not so much a question of what I’d like them to do as what it is that I think they’ll do. If they can’t reach a decent agreement in the spring, I suspect he’ll be traded at deadline or allowed to walk. Can’t imagine the Reds would pay QO numbers. If he has a good year, he’ll definitely try the FA market. Even if has a year like last, he’ll likely want more than the Reds will pay. The cynical part of me, which is dominant when thinking about the Reds FO, believes that’s why they signed Trevino last year, perhaps as a bridge to Duno. So who knows.
@Tom,
Maybe, but I’m not sure I really see a priority with Stephenson after this year. I see a player that’s never been a defensive stalwart at C. He’s been just good enough to get by. And this year he turns 30. 6’3″ Cs don’t age well in their 30s defensively. At what point does he start to see a defensive decline where he’s a liability there? And there’s not another position on the diamond where his bat and defense can play.
If my view his bat + defense has 1-4 years left at C, at most. I’m not sure if I’m the Reds I take the chance on when that decline might begin.
If he has a good year, which I expect him to have, offer him a QO? It will give them one more year for Duno which I think will be ready in 2028. Of course there may not be a need if there is no baseball next year. Either way it will keep the Reds from having to be locked in to more than one year even if next year is an overpay slightly.
@Melvin,
I can’t envision a scenario where Stephenson at $22M for one year is a better option than a guy like Danny Jansen who signed for 2 years $14.5M total this offseason.
AllTheHype – Guess we’ll have to see how he does and go from there. Personally I’d much rather over pay for one year than be locked in to several years unnecessarily.
Sorry @Melvin, can’t imagine a scenario where the Reds QO Stephenson. The opportunity cost would be staggering. Spend that money on guys like Stewart if he proves to be the real deal. Take another run at EDLC. Lock in another of the pitchers with a Greene like deal. Draft better so the team doesn’t have a deficit at catcher in the minors. And hope Trevino stays healthy. We don’t need another Lavarnway or Graterol situation like in 2019.
LDS – As I said it depends on how well he does, if he helps us win this year, and what the options are next year if they really want to win. There just aren’t any “Johnny Benches” out there. Relatively speaking TS has the potential to be really good. I would have liked to have signed Realmuto for a couple of years and traded TS but it didn’t appear the Reds were even interested.
I thought a long time ago that Stephenson and India were going to be the teams building blocks. Hah, glad I didn’t bet on that! The Reds seem to have had their doubts about Stephenson all along. Injuries didn’t help, and his defensive numbers aren’t stellar, but I think, without much real knowledge, that his game calling is not that great.
Reminiscing…what a find Johnnie Bench was!!!
I had more faith in India than I did Stephenson. It’s hard to trust a catcher beyond those initial 6-7 years because the position is so hard on the body. If you can find that unicorn who doesn’t break down before his mid-late 30’s, lock him up, but those kind of guys are extremely hard to find and you pretty much don’t know you have it until it will be almost prohibitively expense to keep it.
I am not too impressed with Tyler Stephenson. I think he is overpaid. He is part of the team this year and has a place towards the bottom of the lineup. I like the other catcher better for his defense.