The Cincinnati Reds have been adding to their bullpen this offseason. They’ve added a few position players, too, but with what they lost and the offense having already been an enormous question mark, it’s been clear to just about everyone that they needed to keep on adding. One of the players they lost from last season was Miguel Andujar. He joined the Reds at the trade deadline and hit well for the club when he was able to get on the field. In his 34 games with Cincinnati he hit .359/.400/.544 with 11 extra-base hits. Following the year he hit free agency and he’s still out there today. A report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post says that the Reds are showing some interest in bringing him back.
While the report notes that “many” teams are interested, Cincinnati could certainly use another quality hitter in the lineup. In his time between the Reds and Athletics, Andujar hit .318/.352/.470 in his 94 games. That represents the most games he’s played in a season, by a lot, since 2018 when he played in 149 as a rookie with the New York Yankees. That year was his best as he hit 47 doubles and 27 home runs while posting an .855 OPS. Over the following five seasons he played in 144 total games and put up an OPS of .616 as a big leaguer. In 2024 he joined Oakland and hit .285/.320/.377 in 75 games, posting an OPS+ of 103 (slightly above league average) as he showed something with his bat for the first time since that 2018 season.
In 2025 things went a lot better. His BABIP was a career high at .348. But he also made a ton of contact, striking out just 14.4% of the time he came to the plate, and he began to show some power again. If he could repeat those numbers it would certainly help out a Cincinnati offense that has a lot of question marks as it gets ready to head off to Goodyear for spring training.
With that said, there are some question marks with Andujar, too. He’s going to be 31-years-old this spring, outperformed his career BABIP by a significant margin in 2025, and then there’s the fact that according to Sports Info Solution’s data he was the 2nd luckiest hitter in baseball in 2025 and his expected OPS compared to his actual OPS was a 123 point difference – meaning that his “expected” OPS was just .699. To note – the “expected” numbers they use are not the ones you see from Statcast and on Baseball Savant. If he were to perform to that level of expectation it would not at all be helpful to the Reds offense.
There’s also a question of where would he play? Andujar has historically played left field and third base. He has very minimal time at first and in right field in his career – just 21 total starts between the two positions as a big leaguer. At third base you would imagine he’s probably at least third on the depth chart behind starter Ke’Bryan Hayes and then Sal Stewart, who is likely to serve as the designated hitter most days if everyone is healthy. In left field he’s a below-average defender who would have to battle for playing time with the likes of JJ Bleday, Will Benson, Spencer Steer (at times), and then a slew of “what if things go right” guys in Tyler Callihan, Blake Dunn, Rece Hinds, or Hector Rodriguez. With Sal Stewart as the likely designated hitter there doesn’t seem to be a clear path to much playing time there.
As most things go, the price of acquisition matters here. But if you are Andujar and you are looking at similar offers from other teams you might be able to see a clearer path to playing time than with the Reds. And if you are the Cincinnati front office you are probably looking at the roster and wondering exactly how you could find him a decent amount of playing time given what the team looks like, which also means you aren’t likely going to be offering too much money.
Well, Frank Robinson was an “old” 31
He turned 29 in August 1965 and was traded in December. The Dewitt quote was “not a young 30” because he had already played 10 years.
He and I shared August 31st as a birthday. I turned 14 that summer.
Correcting my error above. He turned 30 (not 29) in 1965. But I turned 14.
It goes without saying that you, Oldtimer, were an old 14. My wife on the other hand was born 4 days after you in 1951 and she is a ‘young’ 74! 🙂
I mean, it’s a Reds type move…
It’s, it’s ….spinning the Wheel of Despair.
Spin, Big wheel!
Yes, the same thing I am thinking. He has some statistic that Krall probably likes and will ignore the fact he cannot stay on the field and that he is still available for a reason. Can we get at least ONE legitimate bat this offseason? Just ONE? The players that the team have brought in should be competing for the last spot off the bench instead of everyday spots. They arent even replacement level players. I see the term “bounce back candidates” thrown around and I keep wondering if they ever bounced in the first place. Bounce back from what? Bleday is a .215 career hitter for goodness sakes. Dane Myers is a slap hitter who strikes out like a power hitter. Believe your eyes, Reds fans.
When you are watching October baseball and notice the teams that make it far have a grit to them, its because they are a team that probably wasn’t put together by someone obsessing over their WRCs while looking at a spreadsheet. It’s instincts that some personnel guys just have, we haven’t had that around here in awhile. You can’t be cheap with bad personnel departments and win in professional sports.
You can’t get mad at me or whoever else thats fed up and can see through what this organization keeps feeding to the fans but the only thing that keeps happening is we are proven right. Realists knew what would happen this offseason, we would try to sign everyone but noone would bite. The Reds are “interested” in every FA out there. But we all knew they would sign below replacement level players and try to go with lefty/righty splits with guys who are one step away from being out of baseball. I dont even have a crystal ball. Trust your eyes and follow the moves and nothing else. Cut out the rumors, just look at the ink on the contracts.
“I see the term “bounce back candidates” thrown around and I keep wondering if they ever bounced in the first place.”
LOL well said Sir.
[yawn]
Couldnt agree with this post more Justin.
Agree Justin. I’ve wanted us to add two above average bats, I’d settle for one big bat at this point.
I don’t see Andujar as a great fit and I suspect there will be some regression to his back of baseball card norm.
As a DH he wouldn’t be bad. His splits were good too. Wouldn’t have to worry about platooning with Lux now. Reds probably won’t pay for him anyway.
Consider this:
Last year, Andujar’s age 30 season, was the first season since age 23 where he had either an .800 OPS or 10 HRs in a season.
Prime regression candidate I believe. And one days he DHs, one of Stewart or Steer are likely to sit.
The numbers quoted season reflect an.injured Andujar. The Reds also used Andujar against RH pitching on several occasions. Yet he still hit like he could win a batting title. IMHO, Andujar would this “impact bat” everybody talks about. He won’t hit .359 over 450 AB’s, but, if the Reds sign him, and Francona handle him right, Andujar could be a terrific DH/3B.
Yeah I see it. I think an Andujar signing would be meh. OK but not great. You are Probably right about regression.
I think you’re right, he’s not a good fit, and likely won’t produce like last season.
If Sal is the expected DH, does that mean we’re looking at Steer back at 1st? I thought the wisdom was Stewart at 1st with Steer in Left or basically “anywhere that’s needed” on any given night. Because I think with Stewart at 1st, Steer in Left and Andujar at DH, that’s 3 not terrible hitters in the line up that still has a lot of questions.
Well Steer was a gold glove finalist at 1st base. Why weaken your defense in 2 spots by taking him off 1st?
Because he is 5’8 and you have a 6’5 SS who likes to throw high. Steer is an athlete and first is easy for an athlete. Eric Davis wouldve been a great first basemen too. Barry Larkin too. My son’s 12u team had a bigger first basement than the Reds.
Steer is 5″11 and teach your SS to hit the 1st baseman in the chest. Most SS do.
I agree about hitting your first baseman in the chest theoretically but according to this Steer is 5’9″.
https://www.mlb.com/player/spencer-steer-668715
His height didn’t restrict him from being a top three 1st baseman.
If defense of Steer he’s try to catch balls in the dirt and over his head coming at him approximately 259.3 m.p.h. (slight exaggeration). 🙂
Tito said he doesn’t like using a kid like Stewart as a DH. So who plays where who knows. As always Hayes is throwing a wrench into everything. lol
Trade or DFA Hayes. Put Stewart there. Problem solved. Give Andujar a chance to start in LF/DFA. Bring up Hinds to give Andujar days off or take over if Andujarvdoesnt have it. Bleday (sp?) Against righties.
You take it too personally, Melvin.
I think most days if I said the grass was green in the summer time you’d say it was purple. lol You just LOVE to debate big guy (greenmtred). haha
You think that your grass is green? Huh.
It’s actually green on the other side
“You think that your grass is green? Huh.”
I rest my case. smh 🙂
“It’s actually green on the other side”
ALWAYS greener on the other side. Ain’t that right? 🙂
He played very well for us. That should at least warrant consideration. That sends the right message to playing for CIN too. He’s awful defensively at LF and 3B. He decent against righties and fantastic against lefties.
The question is, absent a trade, is there a fit?
C Jose Trevino (Def #1); Tyler Stephenson – more of a DH than a starting catcher do to his defense.
1B Spencer Steer; Sal Stewart needs to play everyday – DH?
2B Matt McLain
SS ELDC
3B Ke’Bryan Hayes
LF Bleday/Jones platoon (or Friedl if we get a CF); HRodriguez at some point
CF Friedl (or Robert or someone like that via a trade); Dunn to get a shot
RF Marte (let’s not mess this up); Hinds as Plan B
DH Stewart (but what about CES?) (Stephenson?)
I’m guessing Andujar is going to get a 1-year deal with a team option from someone soon. It does not hurt to sign him. It is not a great sign if this ends up being our largest acquisition, but he is a very solid hitter and a great acquisition if he stays at his best position – Hitter.
Due (not do).
Why do people think that Trevino was such a good defensive catcher last year? Blocking – Tyler 3rd…..
Trevino 49th. Framing – Ty 50th….Trevino 18th.
Pop Time – Ty 58th….Trevino 67th.
Throwing – Ty 35th….Trevino 45th.
What are you basing your opinion of Trevino’s defense on?
Ty is not the be all end all defensively, but he outshines Trevino in every category but framing.
Is framing even necessary much with the challenge system this year?
Yes because it still matters early in games when teams are less likely to utilize a challenge.
Makes sense although theoretically a team will never lose their challenges as long as they keep winning them correct?
Correct.
But you better be right if you are challenging a call with no one on in the 1st inning on a 0-0 count lol. I’ve recall a game this year where both teams used a challenge in the 1st inning and just how strange it felt because it just wasn’t something you see. It will be interesting to see how this all goes in terms of how teams go about the strategy on April of 2026 versus say July of 2030 (if we aren’t at full automation by then).
The challenge system is going to make things worse, not better.
We need 100% automated balls and strikes. Take humans out of it. Take framing out of it.
Challenge system will allow umps to be even worse because the player can always challenges and once the challenges are spent, the ump can call what they want. And does no one think an ump will retaliate for an embarrassing challenge? Of course they will.
I saw Hinds get thrown out of a game this year because he didn’t instantly challenge a call. I watched it. He was maybe a split second too late. He complained to the ump because the ump wouldn’t give him the challenge and he got thrown out. So yes I believe the umpires aren’t exactly thrilled about the challenge system especially those calling games in the major leagues.
Agree with Doug about framing. It saves pitches, and puts hitters in a count disadvantage.
Batting avg per the count
0-0 .353
1-0 .379
2-0 .375
3-0 .361
0-1 .355
1-1 .339
2-1 .345
3-1 .371
0-2 .175
1-2 .179
2-2 .190
3-2 .210
VAREDSFAN- because nobody looks anything up and it doesn’t help their agenda.
Tyler Stephenson is awesome to fans at Spring Training. I’ve witnessed that for multiple years. However he is a career -23 DRS at catcher, a -3 cERA, a -2 rSB, and a -16.3 FRM.
Jose Trevino, the winner of 2 minor league gold gloves, is a +44 DRS for his career, a +3 rSB, and a +49.5 FRM.
Defensively, the comparison is not even close. Offensively, they are pretty far apart with Stephenson much better.
Especially at catcher, I’d rather have a good defender than a good hitter.
I am 100% behind Mr. Reeves comment. Once they allowed gambling in the sport you have to take the umps out of the equation. Plus, the younger fans like tech so it’s a win win.
@MBG
Using career stats instead of the most recent data points, skews the numbers. One player is clearly regressing while the other is improving.
Full-auto now please
Typically we see this story the day before a player signs elsewhere.
With so many outfielders, I’d be comfortable letting them duke it out for at-bats, but we can’t have another DH by committee season. The Brewers have been adept for years at identifying positionless hitters who can be stashed at DH and 1B. Because they don’t bring defensive value their WAR is insignificant but the value to a lineup is meaningful. There are still guys unsigned who fit that bill and shouldn’t command a ton (by today’s standards):
If ownership cared: Bader, Geno,
Solid-ish: Andujar, Hays
Hold your nose and pray: Goldschmidt, Hoskins
Aside from Bader and Andujar, my strong preference is to unload the farm for a controllable bat. If you’re committed to Elly, Matt, and Sal, there’s no reason to prospect hug Arroyo and Collier….or even a Tyson Lewis. Fortune favors the bold.
With the pitching staff we’ve assembled, and realizing that our time with Elly to contend is open now. I would definitely cash in some of those prospect chips for a controllable hitter. Duno may be untouchable for me, and Lewis is close, but everybody else would be in play for me in the right deal.
I wonder if the consideration of hanging on to Collier and Arroyo is knowing Elly is a short timer (a couple more years) and these two are part of the next transition? Maybe they haven’t planned that far ahead. But, it sure doesn’t seem like there is any room at the inn for Collier and Arroyo.
Collier is limited to 1B, so i think you may be thinking of Balcazar. Even then, the better SS is still Arroyo.
I also think they do plan for succession, at every position. All teams do, even if just for injuries. As for holding onto top prospects, one thing most pro teams do these days is think of developing players as assets for use in strengthening the ML team, by succession or by trade (that’s been the case fir ever but the buzz words change).
I wonder how much it would cost to sign Bader? He is probably their best free agent option outside of Bellinger.
I read somewhere $12.5 million for two years.
Thank you very much Melvin.
I think Bader is a good fit – at least defensively.
However, I have heard the problem with him is well, him. Apparently, he sees himself as a cleanup hitter – which he’s not. He also shows more power against lefties versus righties, pointing to the at least a partial platoon. Apparently, he does not accept that either. All of this was reported on MLB radio and those guys are respectable.
In Bader’s eight seasons, he’s best 2.0 fWAR three times, with last season being his best. He’ll play most of next season at age 32, and his calling-card defense is on a downward trend, as is baserunning. Even coming off his best season as a hitter, his Statcast hitting summary is almost entirely blue (i.e., below average).
Suarez on a short-term deal as our DH would work, but I suspect he’ll get a longer contract, perhaps around three years. With little value aside from his excellent power, I would pass on anything more than a one-year deal.
Hays and Andujar are likely getting one-year deals. Depending on his health, Hays might be the best fit as he can play average defense as a corner outfielder and deliver a little above-average as a hitter–a high floor but not a lot of upside. Andujar as a DH is intriguing. It might keep him healthy, and he’s a good all-around hitter when healthy with some power.
I’m good with moving prospects, but the return must be very good. I’ve read multiple reports this offseason that most teams aren’t looking to move major league talent for prospects, so I’m not sure who is actually available for our prospects. However, near-ready prospects like Collier and Arroyo could be key depth pieces as soon as mid-season. I think there are good reasons to keep them if the Reds think their bats will play in the majors. Duno is my only untradeable prospect below AA.
I agree with you, BK. Although, I would not sign Geno at all. He’s a .220 hitter entering his age 35 season. That normally screams discount but I think someone will pay him more than we’re paying Jeimer this year.
When you have a team like the Reds who can’t afford the big names ever, you have to hang on to the guys like Collier give them time to develop. The draft and development become much more critical. If you look at the Brewers that’s what they have become and what we must strive to run our team. If things in baseball doesn’t change, it’s the only hope for small market teams. We can’t afford to make an error and trade a prospect who becomes a star.
An inkling of good news with Andujar hitting cleanup, as the DH, to backup EDLC.
He’s an option … not sure the best one. But not the worst either.
This may come down to how much better a bat do they think Andujar has instead of Bleday? Tito’s comment about Sal is apt – they don’t want to DH him that young – they need him to get defensive playing time, and that’s at 1st and 3rd. Steer with the GG performance becomes the late inning 1st sub when he’s not starting there. That means Andujar has to be DH, which is fine, and LF – good luck. Even regressing he still has an MLB bat, so there’s value there, if only as the 13th hitter on the roster.
They really need a MLB OFer, as they have for years now.
Why not let Stewart play more 3B, and let Hayes be the defensive replacement.
Steer’s bat > Hayes’s bat
Probably because Hayes has a $30 million contract. Might end of that way anyway.
Yep (agree w/Melvin). I think for the time being, Hayes is our 3B–they didn’t trade for him to use him as a defensive replacement. Stewart has reshaped his body, but they didn’t like what they saw of his 3B defense in the minors. If he becomes defensively viable at 3B, the Reds will likely trade Hayes.
“If he becomes defensively viable at 3B, the Reds will likely trade Hayes.”
That would be nice but more likely bench him (Hayes) unless they pay part of his salary in a trade. Maybe it’s just me. 🙂
Hayes will certainly be given some rope, and hopefully someone can unlock something with his hitting. That was one of the things they thought they could do when he arrived.
Hayes is fine so long as he’s #8 or 9 in the order. Superior defense gets that. He’ll start at least 5 games a week and play anytime they have a lead after 7 innings. Sal will get some time there, but much safer to stick him at 1st/DH most of the time and move Steer around the defense.
The huge problem remains a serious MLB OF hitter. Sal/Hayes/Steer have no effect on that.
Something tells me that Hayes is going to have a career year. Career year for him at least. Getting out of Pittsburgh and hitting in a much better park will help. Age 29 is typically a very good if not the best year for power for a player (see Jose Bautista for a comp).
Hayes typically does not stay healthy though and that should give PT to Stewart. I honestly thought we would trade Steer to give 1B to Stewart. I suppose that could still happen.
@VA, I think Krall and Tito are on the same page, pitching and defense first. Stewart isn’t going to take a position from a GG (Hayes), or nearly GG (Steer) player away.
They are seeing Friedl’s defense as declining, and Marte’s skillset as a possible replacement.
It’s ok for now, Stewart can DH, and back up 1B/3B, but Collier isn’t far away. In an ideal world Stewart and Collier’s defense improves and they man 3B, and 1B by 27 or 28.
Reversion to the mean – pass
As of right now (my guesses are) RF Marte CF Friedl LF Bleday OF Myers Benson
1B Stewart Steer 2B McLain SS Elly 3B Hayes UTIL open
C Stephenson Trevino
DH Stewart Stephenson
I’d like to see one of hays or andujar resigned. Hayes Marte Hinds have been better against RHP. Mario Duncan phase two
I feel like Hayes is more likely to repeat than Andujar. Hays is also aich better LF than Andujar
Hays was recovering from health issues last season. If he’s fully recovered, he might be considerably better this year. Note that I carefully said “might.”
Thoughts on a Yandy Diaz trade? He is owed 12 mil this year and 13 next. I am sure Krall could shed 5-8 million somewhere in order to make the trade for him. I would prefer that greatly over a Luis Robert trade. He would be a DH only primarily, but I am tired of seeing a rotating and below par DH consistently. It is a position now and the Reds must adjust to that, especially considering we have below average hitters at 3B and the OF.
I’d prefer an LH hitter, but Diaz can hit, and several projections like his chances to maintain his production.
I actually wouldn’t mind having Luis Arraez as a DH. The man can hit and he’s durable. From what I read he’s likely to make $10-14 million on a one to two year contract so the Reds aren’t likely to sign him either.
https://www.mlb.com/player/luis-arraez-650333
Last year was a “down” year for him at .292/.327/.392/.719
Conforto? Seems to be able to be had on a 7-8 million salary from what I read.
Conforto hasn’t been good since 2020 and was outright bad last year
Michael Conforto –
https://www.mlb.com/player/michael-conforto-624424
Not good numbers last year. Wouldn’t you agree?
I would prefer Arraez over Conforto. As Duke points out, Conforto just hasn’t been that good offensively and he is bad defensively. Also, he’s best in a platoon. Why not just roll with our in-house players? At the very least, any acquisition should bring less performance risk than the Benson, Hinds, Dunn, CES, HRod crowd. I don’t see how Conforto clears that bar.
I agree with @BK, go with one of the inhouse young guys over Conforto. Arraez can hit, but he has less power than the Reds actually need. But he can hit and his splits are pretty good (.300+ vs RH and .270+ against LH). Still, there’s not really position for which he’s best suited. His primary positions have been 2B and 1B. Who are you going to bench? McLain, Stewart, Steer? I think, as others here have noted, the KBH trade is going to haunt the Reds for years. Unless he returns to his early career hitting. He hasn’t hit the last couple of years. Who knows – maybe the Reds get lucky and he does.
Arrez is pretty much just rich man’s Lux
Arraez isn’t a bad target but not ideal due to positioning. He’s pretty much a DH/1B and we have Stewart and Steer who are likely to get regular playing time. I know opinions vary on position batting profiles, but I’d like to see the DH spot filled by someone who’s got some power potential. Arraez has none and doesn’t get walk at a good percentage either.
Send them Arroyo, an over-rated prospect if there ever was one.
Tom you think that if you can see a guy is overrated that the people you want to trade him to can’t see it? Or do you know something that the rest of us don’t?
Well, the Yankees can make mountains out of molehills by over-hyping their marginal prospects. The Reds can do that too. I am thinking of players like Dan Driessen and Paul Householder who were thought to be great players.I am sure there are better examples. I have seen Arroyo play and I was not impressed with his swing or approach. But many a minor league player flopped in the ML. Seeing that the Mets acquired Roberts for a comparable to Arroyo and a throw-in arm. I think the Reds could have done the same with Arroyo and Lowder.
I guess I am still confused why the Reds traded Gavin Lux. I mean he didn’t provide much power, but you’re going into the season with Bleday and Benson as your only true left handed bats in the lineup (I know Elly and Friedl are switch hitters). Seems pretty light on the left handed bats to me.
Oops friend is a true lefty never mind.
Friedl. Clean up on aisle 3
haha Funny because that’s something like I would do. 😀
Melvin I do it about twice a day Lol
I prefer an LH hitter, too. However, a couple of our RH hitters (Marte and Hayes) had reverse splits last season, so perhaps the Reds aren’t overly concerned with handedness in looking for a bat.
Callihan might be the last bench guy, he’s another lefty
Thanks Duke. I keep forgetting about Tyler Callihan.
I hope Hayes is only slotted to start say 100 games this year. He’d be a D replacement as needed for the others – would help with the reported back problems. That would free up Stewart to make some starts there and free up some 1B and DH at-bats for nomad-Steer and Andujar (or whoever they sign to be “a bat”). If it turns out to be Andujar then he play some LF and DH – not much to get excited about. We need our starting pitching to stay healthy and dominate to have a good year.
At the beginning of the offseason I had thought we could do better through trades and/or the FA market with the money we had available I wasn’t opposed to bringing him back but preferably as the 2nd or more preferably 3rd bat brought in. Since Andujar doesn’t really have a defensive position he excels at, he’s primarily the DH, I really wanted a bigger bat for the middle of our order. At this point, I realize my earlier notions were likely pie in the sky thinking, I should know better with this ownership group. I’d welcome Andujar back with open arms if he wanted to come back on a reasonable deal.
Please do bring him back. Need some pop.
Unfortunately, this off-season is going pretty much exactly like I predicted it would
Gotta make those resources align with payroll.
That’s what Krall was hired to do, and that’s what we see year after year.
So its your fault, Duke? 🙂 Here we were blaming Catellini. 🙂
If this is the only move they make to shore up the offense, well, there are worse choices.
That compliment is coming directly from the back of my hand.
Once I saw Heyman’s name attached to this, I knew it was invented news, but it worked like a charm here at RLN.
The first thing I thought of was that it’s from Heyman, so who knows if it is real or not.
Yeah, Heyman and most of the national writers couldn’t tell you what color the Reds wear.
I can’t either: they seem to make a variety of fashion statements.
As much as I want to see the Reds pull off a trade for a big bat/solid player, my mind always goes back to the Mat Latos trade.
We got a good pitcher, even if hot-headed, but the Padres got Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, Volquez, and Boxberger.
Who knows if we could find a trade that changes who we are as a team, say when we traded for Scott Rolen…but I think it’s needed.
Fortune favors the bold…so we need to be bold, since we don’t have the fortune in our budget that we need. But every offseason, the Latos trade is the first thing I think about.
Whomever that player is…I don’t know. But it’s nearly time to get off the pot.
Forgot to mention, on top of the haul the Padres got, it was the decision to trade Grandal and stick with Mesoraco. The kid was good, just couldn’t stay healthy.
So we traded four highly rated players and our catcher of the future flamed out.
If Dane Myers is the best we get as far as a trade in 2026, I yearn for the Walt Jocketty years.
Different GM / President of Baseball Operations. Krall is very different than Jacketty and other GM’s the Reds have had lately.
Krall is a competent Red’s GM who is basically a company man for the Castellini ownership which has Reds baseball as one of their business interests with food produce the main one. There is no doubt the Reds have developed good pitching but maintaining consistent offense has been overlooked by a lack of trading, with some players being keep around too long. This is in contrast to the Brewers who have been a winning team with consistent offense.
Brewers are winning the division and making the playoffs consistently, but then they just get fly swatted right out of the playoffs because then they have to play teams with 2x-3x their payroll because the sport is broken.
That reminds me of this other team who made the playoffs seven straight years and won 90 games each of those years and couldn’t get a ring. Those upstart Dodgers finally got things done in year eight, though many fans around the game said that championship wasn’t even a real one, before getting in the playoffs the three years after that and getting booted out again.
All they had to do was double their already top 5 payroll to do it. A true underdog story.
Rhett Lowder, Tyson Lewis, and Hector Rodriguez for Jarren Duran. That’s the trade we need. 3 years of control, outfielder, lots of extra base hits, is in his prime now.
That’s the trade we needed in November. The Sox have since acquired S. Gray and R. Suarez, and are now looking to off load pitching. They’ve also added a 1B, Contreras, instead of Steer or Stewart. They lost Bregman and still need a 3B as well as a 2B. Problem is, they are looking as players like Ketel Marte, not Matt McLain, and Geno Suarez, not K’Bryan Hayes. If we had tried to sell high on Lodolo, with his career high in IP, after not having pitched more than 120 in his years in college and pro, we might have had a better chance. And after watching the Sox this winter, given what they are asking for Duran, I doubt much short of Burns or Lodolo and Stewart gets it done. They don’t want a guy like Lewis — too many K’s. They have a half dozen already. It’s just a different planet there. They built that outfield and they know what they have, in essence three ML center fielders who can hit.
I make that Trade for the Reds. Might not be enough for the Sox though although it should be. As far as Duran in his prime, if you consider he will be 30 this year his prime then I guess he is. At any rate this is the kind of move the Reds need to make to actually move the proverbial needle a goodly amount. A signing of Andjuar is just more of the same meh used to try and placate the faithful.
So its your fault, Duke? 🙂 Here we were blaming Catellini. 🙂
Do we know if Collier is going to start at AA or move up to AAA to start the year? His plate discipline looks pretty good and if he shows power, he could be knocking on the door in 2026 rather than 2027. Looks like he is getting more time at 1B than 3B too now.
I’ll be shocked if he’s not back in AA. 308 plate appearances there last year and a sub .100 iso-P along with a K rate higher than you’d like to see. Pretty much the same thing in the AFL.
I think our infield is interesting. We apparently are not going with a true utility infielder that can cover 2B/3B/SS. Instead, McLain backs up SS, Stewart backs up 2B and 3B – and 1B. Steer is an emergency guy at 3B or 2B. If ELDC and McLain are out, I’m guessing Arroyo or Balcazar get the call-up. That will be hard unless someone hits the IL60 and I hope we avoid that with this group.
The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of bringing back Hays over Andujar.
I think Hays (no “e”) will want 3 years, $25 million. I don’t think he comes back to the Reds for a one -season stand, again. But, if he doesn’t have a contract by ST, you never know.
I don’t think anyone is willing to give Hays 3 years, $25 million, that’s why he’s still a free agent. He’ll sign a one year deal somewhere (maybe here) right before spring training starts.
I doubt the Reds get him. I think it is hype. The Reds might not make any more changes unless there is another trade.
There is really no one left that I think we can get and would be a big improvement over what we have.
A trade is our best shot at getting someone who is actually impactful to the lineup.
Trades cost though either from our future, or or present depth.
@MBS
Agreed 100%
To me, the trade route has seemed the most likely route to get a true talent upgrade. Moving prospects always feels bad on trade day, but the team that gets the most talented player almost always wins a trade. Of course, trades take two interested parties. Absent a major upgrade, an incremental upgrade is the next best option. I really like our pitching — starting, relieving, and depth. If Hayes is the only 9-hole hitter on the team, our hitting will be good enough to improve our record across 162 games. Aside from luck (good health and most players having near career years), I don’t see a path to a deep playoff run. But winning the division would be a huge success.
My hunch, listening to Francona’s comments this past weekend, the team the Reds have is the one we will probably see when O.D. arrives. Of course, any new player will affect the dominoes. If we like good pitching and defense, check-and-check. If we want a team that hits 300 HR, steals 180 bases … not gonna happen. We can whine about it until the sky turns green. Maybe it’s time we became fans instead of critics. I’m ready for the 2026 run for the Manfred Cup.
Yep.
The Reds will improve if McClain, De La Cruz, and Marte play better. They will do better if Steer has a good April. If Greene pitches the whole season, they will win more games. Improvement from any of their players help their chance at making the playoffs again. It goes the other way if some of these players do not play as well. If Abbott does not pitch as well, they will lose more games.
I wonder how much Nathaniel Lowe would cost?
$ 20 bucks, same as in town. 🙂
Didn’t the Red Sox dump him because he wasn’t hitting?
There are a lot of marginal guys out there floating around, just waiting to be scooped up for a couple mil. Lowe, Rhys Hoskins, our old pals Austin Hays and Miguel Andujar, Conforto, and on, and on…..
They are out there, waiting for some team to spin the Wheel of Despair and Desperation and pick them up.
Yeah, it’s trying to find the best of the worst at this point.
I think Lowe is the one player I’d be most interested in. Now that Lux is gone, we are too righty dominant. Lowe hits righties and plays good defense. Andujar hits lefties (at least in 2025) and doesn’t play good defense anywhere.
Lowe has been very good very recently. I don’t know what the Nationals did to him but bad teams often have a bad effect on good players.
I love thinking of the future of Sal Stewart, but I wouldn’t want to count on a 22 year old getting the majority of defensive appearances at any infield position quite yet. And lux departure means Spencer steer is probably going to play all over the field.
Yeah, I read Sal Stewart is talking about being rookie of the year. I love the confidence, but he is likely going to struggle at some point this season.
He is also Jonathan Mayo from MLB Pipeline’s pick to be rookie of the year as well.
I wouldn’t say I’ve been clamoring for the Andujar reunion, but I wouldn’t have minded it. But I had no earthly idea his expected stats were that bad; he looks like a super regression candidate. If you put his expected performance halfway between his true expected stats and last year’s output stretched out to 450 or 500 PA’s, would he be worth the investment?
Andujar had a .413 BABIP in his time with the Reds. Hardly seems repeatable.
It’s not. But it doesn’t need to be. No one expects him to go out and hit .359 again. Or at least they shouldn’t.
I think he got most of that BABIP against one pitcher — can’t recall his name, but he owned that guy.
These projects are curious.
McLain is somehow expected to suddenly get better and Andujar is expected to get worse.
Did anyone predict Andujar to have a strong season back in January 2025?
Or McLain to be as bad as he was?
Offer Andujar a contract with mutual options for 2027 and loaded with incentive clauses for 2026.
Let him hit for his $$.
Worked for year two of Castellanos.
I think only Reds’ fans expect McLain to get immensely better, and be like he was in 2023. And he might. But that also might be the best year in his career. It does happen…where a guy has a great “rookie” season and it never happens again.
I hope he does, but we fans and the Reds are betting a lot on it…and it probably is not going to happen. Time will tell.
A .756 career OPS is a lot better than most of the current Reds, with only Stephenson (.764) and EDLC (.774) beating him out.
Fun fact, Elly has more career MLB plate appearances than Andujar
I feel the Reds have one more spot on their 26 man roster for an offensive player.
C: Stephenson/Trevino
IF: Steer/Stewart/McLain/Hayes/EDLC
OF: Bleday/Myers/Benson/Marte/Friedl
I am hoping they are using this as leverage to get a better deal for Baty (no spot with the off-season acquisitions of Bichette and Simeon) or Jordan Lawlar (no spot with the off-season acquisition of Arenardo).
Arizona could convert Lawlar into an OF but feel they are down on him and may be ready to move on. The Mets would rather sign a veteran than give someone young a chance.
I wonder if the suddenly crowded Dodger outfield has any prospects that are near to ready that might be worth checking in on?
Baseball is a tough game. There’s no guarantee anything is going to happen for those who struggle in the minors and the few who make it to the Majors.
We need what we have needed for a long time. A power hitting OF. We don’t need another infielder to mess up where guys play or to take up being a full time DH. I like the DH during the season to give guys a break but not actually lose their bat from the lineup. It to me seems obvious we are not going to get what we need through FA. It has to be a trade. Duran OF from Boston who’s name has been bandied about since the offseason started would be a perfect fit IMHO. We don’t have the money to sign even a guy from the whatever is left blue chip FA pile. If we don’t do anything serious how great would it be to waste YET another year of Elly and Hunter?
Nailed it, redfanorbust.
They need another right handed bat Andujar isn’t ideal but he will help.
@Michael B. Green
You sir may I say, have outstanding judgement.
If we acquired Duran, we would no longer have Hunter to waste.
Could Ke’bryan Hayes be traded? To someone like the A’s who had a deal in place with Cardinals to acquire Arenado and willing to take on money…
No one is going to trade for Hayes’ contract as bad as he hit the last two years… well, almost no one.
Are you saying the Reds can’t trade with the Reds. lol
A day that shall live in Reds’ infamy. 20 years of “success”.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/baseball/on-this-day-in-reds-history-bob-castellini-becomes-majority-owner-of-cincinnati-reds/ar-AA1UB0WI?ocid=BingNewsVerp
That’s actually a pretty thorough and fair analysis of the last twenty years of the Cincinnati Reds. Thanks for sharing this.
From the above LDS article – “It’s just a classic example of ownership using organizations as profit,” former Reds and current Phillies outfielder Nick Castellanos said.
There it is in a nutshell.
“That leads me to my main question: has Bob Castellini’s ownership reign been successful? I say sort of. The landscape of Major League Baseball has changed mightily over the last 20 years. Salaries and payroll have skyrocketed since he took over. The highest payroll in baseball was $194.6 million, and only five teams cleared the $100 million mark. In 2025, the Dodgers had a payroll of $321 million, and two teams had a payroll of $300 million. Six teams cleared $200 million, and only seven teams had less than $100 million. Bob Castellini is one of the poorest owners in baseball currently and still puts out league-average payrolls.
I personally am not a Castellini defender, but I will give him credit for being somewhat consistent and navigating through the biggest landscape change in all of the four major sports in North America.”
Did Castellanos share a fact or perception? His and Lorenzen’s statements don’t address the revenue disparity that’s grown in MLB over the last two decades. The author’s conclusion is hardly “pro-ownership,” but it accurately points out that there is more to evaluating a baseball owner than Castellanos’ “nutshell.”
I think a player’s perspective is always interesting. It’s typically much more telling than our comments. Most of our thoughts are speculation. We have not heard good things from India or Castellanos. They are always quick to show class by giving compliments too so as not to rock the boat.
I think the best reflection would come from ELDC and/or his agent. While Boras seems like a villain right out of Austin Powers, he is still very pro-player. I’d take that position any day over a group of owners that over the years were responsible for the color line, guilty of collusion multiple times, and a certain Yankee owner suspended for illegal campaign contributions and then outright banned from baseball for attacking someone named Winfield.
If I were to guess, I would say that the Boras position is, “Hey. Look at the Dodgers. They’ll spend to win. They’ll take the enormous profits they make from Ohtani and turn around and invest it in Diaz and Tucker. Now look at the Reds. They’ll watch Martinez, Hays, and do very little financially to improve their playoff roster.” Not a quote. Just a hunch.
The Dodgers consist of millionaire and billionaire owners. Yes, their market is bigger and thus, so is their revenue. But if you remove the extra earned by winning championships, I’m guessing that pro rata, they are earning about the same ratio in terms of revenue v. expenses.
The Reds’ ownership also consists of millionaires and billionaires. The difference? They don’t spend it. They try to maximize their profits by minimizing their expenses. Winning comes second to that. They seem uninterested in taking risks by landing more profits from winning a championship. That’s why you see the same payroll from an 60, 70, 80, or 90 win team.
It tends to create false dilemmas when we frame issues as for/against, either/or. Few problems are binary, and baseball’s economic issues are certainly complex.
Boras and the Dodgers wouldn’t be perceived as villains in any other league–their CBAs do a better job at balancing the interests of all parties. Let’s be honest, I could not name a single player’s agent in any other sport; that’s pretty telling, isn’t it? Moreover, I don’t think you’ll see me bashing the Dodgers–they are playing within the rules. The Dodgers did a brilliant thing when they signed Ohtani. They not only play in the second-largest U.S. market, but they also play in the largest U.S. metro area in terms of population for Japanese citizens and Japanese-Americans. Because he earns so much through endorsements, particularly in Japan, Ohtani was willing to defer most of his salarly. Then, they signed the two best pitching prospects who were also Japanese, Yamamoto and Sasaki, galvanizing their marketing presence in the worlds third largest economy. Please note, MLB is the only league where international players can enter the league without first being “draft” eligible. Even the next four of five MLB markets with significant Japanese ties are dwarfed by the ready-made market that existed in LA when they signed Ohtani. The Dodgers’ success has far more to do with taking advantage of a very unique market opportunity than their owners’ willingness to spend money. I applaud their move, but that doesn’t mean it was good for the league as a whole. It also doesn’t mean any other team had or has a similar opportunity to boost their revenue like the Dodgers have.
“But if you remove the extra earned by winning championships, I’m guessing that pro rata, they are earning about the same ratio in terms of revenue v. expenses.”
Independent, third-party analysts like Forbes compare teams using operating income because most expenses for running an MLB franchise are similar. Operating income excludes depreciation (higher due to higher real estate costs), amortization (likely similar), taxes (higher in CA and NY), and interest (likely similar) expenses. Moreover, just look at how closely player payrolls follow franchise valuations–there is almost a perfect correlation. There are multiple teams with big revenue advantages over the Reds and other small-market teams–the Dodgers’ success is deeper than winning consecutive championships.
I quote: “I want to make a promise today to Reds fans wherever you are, a promise from one fan to another: We will bring championship baseball to Cincinnati”
Guess we are still waiting for that to happen. That was a good read thank you for sharing it with us all. The silver lining for me is it could have happened 10 days in the future on the 30th and it would have happened on my birthday, not something to be excited about for sure as you get another year older.
It’s always bad to overpromise and then underdeliver.
Thanks for posting LDS. But, I’m not sure how you can look back over the past 20 years, when the team has not won a single playoff off series, and suggest the Reds have been “sorta” successful.
If you can’t afford to own a major league team, then sell it and get out of the business. You are not doing anyone any favors by clinging to a team you can’t afford. It’s like the Castellinis want credit for being so civic minded by owning the team.
Sell the team or at least put it up for sell and see if someone with adequate resources is interested in buying it. I’m so tired of their excuses.
They make a big deal about offering Elly the biggest contract in team history. Joey Votto’s contract was signed 13 years ago or whatever. All they did was to try and make their best player (who played every game in 2025, many while being hurt) look bad. Then they wonder why they have a hard time attracting free agents.
I understand this sentiment, but is it realistic to expect a different owner (or group of owners) to spend enough to bridge the spending gap with the top six or so spending franchises? I’ve earnestly looked over the last fifteen or so years, and I haven’t seen a single sports franchise where the owners plowed personal money into the team for more than a few years before expecting the team’s operating cash flow to fund player payroll. I’m not a fan of the Castellini ownership group, but it’s hard to imagine a different group operating in a manner that would bridge the payroll gap appreciably.
For interest, think back over the Reds’ history for the previous 20 years.
Starting in 1986, the Reds had three straight 2nd place finishes in the NL West, then finished last in 1989, because a lot of players were hurt.
Then…1990, won a World Series. 1994 might have won a lot, but the season ended with a strike. 1995, played for the NL championship against the Braves, and lost. Braves won the World Series against the Indians. Barry Larkin is MVP for the NL.
1996, the team is gutted (but Eric Davis comes back), and a lousy team until 1999, when the win a Wild Card spot (the 1999 team was fun to watch). Lost to Mets in WC play in game (tied with Mets in W-L). 2000 season was Ken Griffey Jr’s debut, and he was good, but the Reds were not as good as the year before.
2001-2005, not good seasons.
1986-2006: in the Post season 3 times (should have been 4), won a World Series, lost to Braves for NL Championship.
Not an amazing period, but they did actually play in and win a World Series.
Going back over the previous 20 years, 1966 to 1986…..but you get the picture.
The game is the same, but how a team manages players and personnel sure have changed. Some mid-size/small market teams have developed a strategy to try and be successful. The Reds apparently had a “plan”, but apparently not much success.
Question to everyone. How did the Big Red Machine afford to have an upper tier payroll in all of MLB during its hay days? How could they pay Bench, Morgan, Rose, Perez, et al.?
Their attendance was awesome – yes. But weren’t they still a smaller market? How did the not only compete but sweep the Yankees and beat the Red Sox?
Pushing to ruin baseball with a salary cap is not my preference. Pushing owners to spend to win is better for the game.
Until December 1975, there was something called a “reserved clause” that kept a player tied to a team indefinitely. So a team could basically pay a player whatever they wanted. There was no arbitration, no free agency.
It was a deeply unfair advantage that the owners had over the players. Then came free agency. The Reds have resisted free agency for the past 50 years.
I remember it was a big deal when Pete Rose landed a contract of $100,000 dollars. It was unheard of at the time for a “singles hitter”. Of course minimum wage was about $2.65 an hour.
Free agency did not start until after the 1976 season or thereabouts. Before free agency, players were bound to a team until the team traded or released them.
Also from 1970 through 1979, they led the league in attendance 1 time, were second in attendance 4 times, third 4 times, and sixth once.
This is what can happen when a contender is put on the field, and the team is aggressively marketed as a regional attraction. “Reds Country” was as far east as West Virginia (and western Virginia), then across through Columbus, Lima, and over to Indy (where the Reds AAA affiliate was at that time). From Indy, it ran southward to Louisville, over to Lexington, and then on back up to West Virginia
Actually a bit north of Indy. I was at Purdue at the time and the Reds were the only team. No one cared about the Cubs there.
Don’t underestimate the 50,000 watts of WLW in the equation.
‘75 / ‘76 was before my time, but I used to listen to the Reds at night on my Dad’s car AM radio down on the Gulf Coast.
We’d listen to the X from Mexico for music (250K watts) and WLW for beisbol.
Equally exotic.
And now I want to turn on some Wall of Voodoo.
Yep. I was pointing the dialogue to the reserve clause, unfair labor practices, and then ultimately free agency. We’re 50 years past that, but its a reminder that the owners do not put the fans or the players first. That does not mean the employees of the organization don’t care about the players and/or fans.
What it does point out is – money and profits first. In many cases – only.
Open up the Books, then complain about the Dodgers. The Braves’ 2023 10-K showed they generated $650 million of revenue. Guaranteed that has gone up. I didn’t come across 2025 but perhaps its out there. The Reds will fall short of that but we all know its a ton of revenue. And that’s just revenue – not asset value.
Our window is now. We should be adding to the team via free agency and holding onto all of our homegrown talent. It’s not too late to sign Bellinger.
@Michael, tamp down the rhetoric and just stick to the issues. No owner from 50 years ago is still alive. There is very little acrimony between the players and owners in the NFL, NBA, or NHL. Labor relations across the board are far better today than 50 years ago.
To your points: Annual reports are rarely published in January. It will likely be several more weeks before it’s posted. In 2024, the Braves had $663M in revenue, which included $67M from their highly lucrative mixed-use development. For the year, they had an operating loss of $39.7M and a net loss of $31.2M. I would argue for the purposes of evaluating their results, one could equate the $16.5M charge against stock-based compensation as more of a dividend paid to BATRA management; they have notes to the same effect in their annual report. Still, they lost money in 2024.
Through the first three quarters of 2025 (I don’t think you really meant 2024) , BATRA has $671M in revenue ($71M is from their mixed-use development). Last year, they only had ~$20M in revenue in the fourth quarter against ~$70M in expenses. As of the third quarter, they show operating income of $36M and net income of $18M. As I explained in a different thread, their income is highly seasonal, so it’s always best to look at full-year results. If their income/expense trend from last year continues, they will show modest losses on both an operating and a net basis.
I agree our window is open. I would love for the Reds to open their books–definitely want more transparency, but we do have independent third-party analysis. I would have been happy for the Reds to splurge for the next few years, even if it meant a dreaded rebuild as they covered the losses down the road. However, I’ve always viewed Bellinger as the least attractive big-name free agent; I think it will be a trade or another marginal upgrade. Schwarber was the best fit, and he declined our offer.
Lastly, I did not complain about the Dodgers. I pointed out that we can’t bridge the financial gap with them. I don’t care whether we have a salary cap or not. I do care that the revenue imbalance is at least significantly reduced.
I’m just as frustrated as you are, but I’ve watched the financial side of this industry closely for the last fifteen years and understand that while there would be some benefit to fully open books, the trends and underlying problems are consistent and clear. I believe MLBPA overstates its reasons for not wanting a cap-based system. Take a look at the growth of salaries in the NBA, NFL, and NHL over the last 10 years compared to MLB, and tell me which players’ union(s) are doing the best for their players. That said, I totally respect that they have every right to fight for what they prefer. I also encourage you and others to critically evaluate their arguments.
Im not too worried about the reds tv broadcasts anymore We lost our tv package when dish dumped the broadcast Ive gotten used to tuning in on the radio like the old days when Marty was holding court and letting you see the game almost like you were there And Joe was rounding 3 rd and heading for home now the cowboy keeps us informed with his own gunslinger style… But our Reds need that revenue source so i hope it all works out