Saturday was a busy day for Nick Krall and the Cincinnati Reds. In the morning they signed outfielder JJ Bleday to a 1-year deal for $1,400,000. A handful of hours later it was announced that they had traded an outfield prospect for big league outfielder Dane Myers, designating reliever Lyon Richardson for assignment in the process to clear a spot on the 40-man roster.
In the evening Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall spoke with the Cincinnati media about the two moves, what they mean, and some of what the team is still looking to do this offseason. You can listen to the entire interaction in the video below, but it’s all written out below, too.
What do the two outfielders bring to the roster?
We signed Bleday what would have been yesterday. We agreed, did the physical and then the Dane Myers thing came up last night and we just felt that it was something we just wanted to jump on.
Bleday is a guy, obviously the defensive stuff – he’s struggled in center field but he’s been a solid corner, provided some power. A left-handed hitter that could compete for an every day spot and we’ll see what happens.
Dane Myers is a guy that we think can come in, play center field. He’s average to above in center field. Over the last three years he’s hit .297 against left-handed pitching, .360 on-base. We really think he can help that group, whether it’s Bleday, Benson, Friedl – giving guys a day off and improving the defense as well.
Is this the biggest part that you’ve added or is there another opportunity to add a bat or two?
Dane Myers is a 0-3 guy (MLB experience), JJ Bleday we got on a deal that was close to where his arbitration salary was going to be. We’ve got some more money to be able to use. We looked at these deals with potential upside but it also allows us to try and make the team better.
Myers had a knee laceration in September. Is he ok?
Yeah, everything checked out from the doctor.
You had to DFA Lyon Richardson. He showed some nice things out of the bullpen, that seems like a tough decision.
Yeah, when you’re at 40 you’re going to have a tough decision. We like the guys on the roster. Keegan Thompson we just added, also a tough decision to take those guys off. They were going to compete for spots in our bullpen and now we’ve got to continue to back fill that group as well.
You said you had more money to use, what would you be looking to add this offseason?
You’re still looking for bullpen depth. We’re still looking to add some offense. I think both of them are places that you’d love to get better.
To add more people would you have to do that through a trade or do you have enough to work with in free agency?
One trade and one in free agency today. I think it just depends on who’s out there, what it is, and what the cost is.
Understanding that there’s still work to do, with Pagan and Ferguson – a big focus on the bullpen so far financially. Why make that the priority at least to this point of the offseason with the resources available to you?
I think when you look at it – we had four guys we lost in the bullpen with Pagan, Nick Martinez, Brent Suter, and Scott Barlow. So when you look at the guys we lost that is something that we had to continue to solidify.
If you open camp with this group of outfielders how would you feel about that?
We’re going to try and improve the rest of the offseason. I think we want to figure out if there’s a way to get better and I think we’ve got a good group to go in and compete but you’re always looking to get better.
Is TJ Friedl still the guy in center?
Yeah. We don’t really see Bleday as a center fielder going in, we see him more as a corner bat that has some pop in that bat. We’re looking at him there.
Dane Myers is a guy that is a good center fielder who can give Friedl some days off, and he can play left and right as well.
Do you see Gavin Lux moving around like he did last season?
Yeah. Being able to make moves like this allows Lux to be more of a utility infielder versus a utility outfielder.
Does the same hold true for Spencer Steer?
He’s a guy who finished as a Gold Glove finalist at first base, so ideally you’d love to keep him there and keep your defense good. But I think he’s going to be open to playing some left field and moving around as well.
How can Bleday get back to where he was in 2024?
Look, he had a 120 wRC+ in 2024. If he can get back to that, we can get him back to that – I think he was a 3-win player two years ago. That’s an every day player that’s got some legitimate add to your offense.
They got some more money to spend ..umm ..interesting…Maybe Andujar or Hoskins could be a possibility?
They need at least another high-leverage reliever , I think if that guy is lefty it would be better
Lux as utility infielder is interesting to see… Can he play SS-3b-1b?
So.we trade a prospect for a 30 yr old outfielder that’s worse than anyone we have just so we can dfa a bullpen arm, then you say you’re still looking for bullpen help..?? You can’t make up the stuff that happens when listening to Nick Krall.
Need to trade Benson
Well I think he, Benson, still has option(s) so you can stash him in AAA as insurance. If he does not have options then his trade value will be very little and we will get back the same. As far as I can tell the only way Reds are going to get a needle moving hitter this year is to trade needle moving starting pitching and seems like that is not in the Reds playbook so whatever we many get from this point forward will just be more fillers.
Well I think he, Benson, still has option(s) so you can stash him in AAA as insurance. If he does not have options then his trade value will be very little and we will get back the same. As far as I can tell the only way Reds are going to get a needle moving hitter this year is to trade needle moving starting pitching and seems like that is not in the Reds playbook so whatever we many get from this point forward will just be more fillers.
“How can Bleday get back to where he was in 2024?
Look, he had a 120 wRC+ in 2024. If he can get back to that, we can get him back to that – ”
There it is. I was looking for Kralls key word for every player he signs. “If” .
Unfortunately all his “ifs” never pan out. The guy wastes more money on “if” guys that never end up doing what the genius thinks they will do.
The Cincinnati Reds have become the Pittsburgh Pirates.
At least Bleday is making pretty much the minimum year 1 arb salary, it’s not like we handed him a Candelario contract.
I think the point other than the if’s or maybes that naturally begin the description of Kralls trades it’s not so much what we got but that it is liable to be the peak of our off seasons signings for bats. If it is indeed all we get for the offseason for hitting I rank it an F minus. They get the minus for willing to spend money on Schwarber only because they thought he would generate the money in attendance etc to cover his salary. Finally, placating the fan base and with a big splash signing and not cutting into their profit margins.
I am willing to give Bleday a shot at returning to 2024 or better form.
Really wish they would sign something that is more known based on last year’s stats though.
As I said in another thread, the Reds’ whole plan to compete is “catch lightning in a bottle”.
A careful reader will note that it’s not actually possible to catch lightning in a bottle.
So… Yeah.
That is pretty much it. Catch lightning in a bottle.
Spin the roulette wheel, Big Nick.
It’s kind of a plan….not much of a plan, not much chance for real success, but it is sort of a plan. A Nick Krall plan.
We have all see this before. It’s like Duja Ve all over again.
I particularly like that you don’t see the drastic fall-off in his splits vs. LHP like you see in 95% of LHH.
vs. RHP: .214 .317 .395 .713
vs. LHP: 219 .269 .390 .660
All that proves is that he can’t hit either one!!
I know, pretty deflating. Dude barely manages .700 OPS vs. RHP.
Very nuanced responses-no talk of winning the world series, the division or the playoffs
Hope is not a plan
this is not a serious organization
Agree. Ownership is ONLY concerned with their dividend shares.
Conversely, without hope life is dreary and pointless. The problem is that many of the hopes this franchise has are unrealistic.
Hope is the reason the 30 ML teams play the season for all of us baseball fanatics.
Hope is the plan for all clubs, on some level.
Even the Dodgers hope Ohtani doesn’t tear his ACL, hope their other players are healthy.
Right you are, ATH.
There is a lot more hope with a $400 million payroll
And right you are, Duke.
Different kind of “hope”. They hope to maintain what they have, the Reds hope that a miracle happens. The Dodgers just hope their guys play like they always have, the Reds are hoping for guys to do what they NEVER have done.
If this is the roster for 2026, they will be the most boring team in baseball again.
@Justin
Reds will always require more hope than the Dodgers due to the Dodgers having a payroll well over 3x that of the Reds. Dodgers can make big blunders like signing Conforto ($17M) and Scott ($72M) last offseason and hide them in their all star lineup or on the field in mop-up duty. If Reds had signed those two instead, fans here would go nuts and call for firings. Dodgers fans don’t care because the rest of the team is an all star team.
ATH/Green/Duke
There’s a lot more hopING with a $110MM payroll
“Yeah.”
If the front office was willing to spend the kind of money they supposedly offered Schwarber, then why couldn’t they still go after another big bat like Tucker, Bichette or Bellinger? Adding players like Myers and Bleday is like putting a quarter in a slot machine and hoping you hit the jackpot.
The Reds and Bengals are very similar when it comes to ownership and the staff they have hired to run their teams. The first problem is that the owners “want to win” but they don’t have the “passion” to win. There’s a difference between the two. An owner that “wants to win” might be disappointed if the team isn’t successful but they will continue to run the business the same way. An owner that has a “passion” to win will not settle for mediocrity. They will make changes in personnel and put forth a concerted effort to improve the team through good trades or free agency. The organizations fail to address their needs. I’m also leary about the abilities of both Krall and Tobin to evaluate talent. But as far as the Reds are concerned, stock piling second and third tier players to help their offense is a recipe for another disappointing season. You can’t put a bandaid on a cut that needs stitches!
The only way that championship banners will be hung in Cincinnati again is if there is a change in ownership or the current owners develop passion for their teams and their fans. I’m not hopeful of either of those things happening.
I
Third way. If MLB adopts a salary cap giving all teams a fair chance like in other sports. Dodgers just bought back to back WS titles and have a $300M payroll.
Thankful every day that Phil C told me he didn’t care about the fans and prompted me, after 50 plus years, to find another team to root for. Blue Jays almost pulled the upset last year and are willing to spend money. So refreshing! All of you should try it too.
Add in deferred money and other accounting tricks the Dodgers are using and it was much closed to a $400 million payroll. I think they have a tax based salary number that accounts for that stuff and the Dodgers were something like $390 million.
Gonzo 100% correct. Their will always be no hope franchises without a CAP. Local TV contracts alone make it impossible for small market to compete with big market.
I have. I got sick of hoping for a miracle after the 2020 season and started rooting for the Blue Jays then. It took a while, but they are a really good team, and they continue to try and improve.
Normally I root for the Reds first but if things don’t change this year again by the start of the season then I’ll reverse my 2 favorite teams and be a Blue Jays fan first and then Reds 2nd.
not a chance. Reds fan since going to Crosley Field with grandpa. it’ll be til death pulls us apart.
Those underdog Blue Jays and their $300 million payroll.
I’m trying it this year after 60+ years as a diehard Reds fan. Passing on Kurtz when it was obvious to me they absolutely needed the LHH monster bat at 1B — and then having to hear Katuska repeat ad nauseum the idiotic reasoning WHY they passed on him — did it for me. Not to mention trading for Hayes to throttle the offense for the next three years, and trading away Serwinowski for 8 Littell starts.
Now I’m just a Kurtz fan who hopes the Athletics make some noise.
I feel the same way, Chris. There’s no way I could be other than a Reds fan after growing up hearing stories from my family about Bucky Walters, Johnny Vander Meer, and Paul Derringer.
What kind of overpay would the Reds need to sign Tucker, Bichette or Bellinger?
My guess is any offer they make will be taken back to the big market auction teams and they say yep.
That’s the was the Schwarber-stakes played out.
Maybe Bellinger could be signed for Schwarber like money. Maybe. Tucker and Bichette are getting $200+ million contracts. We’re not even in the market for half that. Bring on the lockout.
I am surprised Bichette has not signed already. Wonder what he is waiting for.
Perhaps a Reds contract with the amount of money they offered Schwarber.
Bichette is not that good a shortstop.
Who, with the Big Checkbook, wants to sign him and overpay for a kind of lousy shortstop who can hit well?
Yes, they have constraints but is that a reason to pack it in, or get creative? They sure got creative enough to offer Schwarber a deal because he thought they would sell more tickets. Milwaukee sure seems to figure it out every year. Have a plan and stick with it but first you need the right people to create that plan and that is what they are lacking. We can complain about the high payroll teams all we want, but it will not change anything.
“Milwaukee sure seems to figure it out every year. Have a plan and stick with it but first you need the right people to create that plan and that is what they are lacking. We can complain about the high payroll teams all we want, but it will not change anything.”
Thumbs up. 🙂
100% CORRECT
Ok so Lux takes over Espinal’s spot? For $5 mil?? Doesn’t make sense, especially when Steer also is a man without a position. These two are redundant, yet Steer is the better defender with relatively even splits i see Lux getting traded or released.
I agree, I think there will be some more moves in the next month. I think Stewart will play 1st almost every day. The Reds invested a 2nd round pick for him, and he will be given the opportunity to play there.
I also think that the Reds might move off from Benson. Has stretches but not consistent.
People also forget that Blake Dunn was the minor league player of the year for the Reds in 2023. Has had some injuries, but he is a good defender and has speed. He could be used for a late inning replacement.
Stewart was a first round pick (just happened to be the second one that year after Collier).
I think Lux will either be moved for money purposes or he becomes the left handed DH. The question is who will be the RH DH? Is it Sal Stewart? Spencer Steer? Or someone they bring in from the outside (Andujar)?
For how the roster is now, it seems like Sal will be the every day DH but will also play some 1B, 2B, and 3B
I think you are probably right, and Krall right now is talking “happy talk”, like there is room for everybody on the team.
I don’t know if there are any takers for Lux, and don’t know if he is being “shopped” by the Reds, but he might be part of a larger trade, or moved to a needy team in Spring Training.
Nick Krall is keeping is $1 and $2 chips close in.
It’s still 2025, so they still have 6 weeks to make the bigger move. At least these deals (as well as Pagan, Ferguson, Thompson, etc.) fill up the roster early in the off season. They’re not going to have AAAA tryouts for the final roster spots in March.
With that done, though, still need 2 bats, and no harm in continuing to seek bullpen arms. There are good to very good DHs available (cough – Andujar), but only a shocking trade seems in order to obtain the missing, power-hitting OFer.
Thompson is now gone thanks to being DFA’d yesterday.
He won’t go far – Doug summarized in the other post.
Hopefully, they still have enough money to sign Andujar. It’s about the best we can hope for at this point.
Lots of “ifs” and hopes that players bounce back. Potential upside is just that, potential. Unfortunately we’ve seen this before, where the Reds decide to try to platoon two below average players and hope they turn into an average one. It rarely works out. Go get a real player. So far the Reds have moved backwards when it comes to adding offense and overall value to the position player side. Why is it too much to hope for for Reds fans to see the FO actually ADD to a team that snuck into the playoffs? It’s not like they’re that far off with their pitching. It would really take two above average bats to make a difference. Instead here we are adding two below average ones.
If they Reds really want to make some moves to address our deficiencies then they need to bite the bullet and use some prospect capitol to make some trades. Trade for Jalen Duran to play LF and trade for Ketel Marte to play 2B. DFA Lux and whoever of Benson/Myers/Bleday isn’t going to make the OD roster.
Roll out:
Friedl CF
Marte 2B
DeLaCruz SS
Stewart DH
Duren LF
Marte RF
Steer 1B
Stephenson C
Hayes 3B
Bench: McLain, Trevino, two of the 4th OF’ers.
But we’ll probably look for more DFA/non-tender fodder.
We’re not trading for Duran. We should, but we aren’t. Our front office doesn’t have that kind of guts to go for it. Or they are being vetoed by ownership.
No guts gets us in the hoping and wishing things bounce back or turn out ok. We’ve seen how that works. We’re very close to putting out a legitimate baseball contender. We’re also very close to competing with the Cardinals for 5th place in the division. The moves so far put us closer to the cellar than the playoffs.
I like your lineup, however, I am still not sold on Hayes’ bat. I am okay with a mediocre defensive third baseman if he can hit .280 or so, bit not .230. We have enough of those guys already.
He’s not in the lineup for his bat: he’s in the lineup because he’s the best at his position in the game. Not many guys hit .280 nowadays. League average is something like .250.
I can pretty much see the Bleday/Myers platoon in LF already. The solution beyond that is praying Hector Rodriguez forces his way up and into an every day LF role. I don’t even think we sign Andujar at this point. We’ll probably sign one more relief pitcher for something like $6-$9 million and that will be the offseason.
At this point I’d like to see them focus on the bullpen, actually. Perhaps with trade.
Sal, Marte, Hector, platoons, and bounce backs from Elly and McLain are the hope for the offense.
Counting on Elly and Marte to be the type of hitters needed to protect … Elly and Marte.
Agree, The Duke and Hype, improve the bullpen.
“Bleday is a guy, obviously the defensive stuff – he’s struggled in center field but he’s been a solid corner, provided some power”
If Bleday is what Krall sees as a power bat, the Reds are seriously doomed. Looking at his advanced batting statistics, he’s about as league average as they come.
It sounded like he wants Steer at 1B, and a platoon with Bleday, and Myers.
C Stephenson 5/9, Trevino 4/9
DH Lux 3/9, Stew 3/9, Steph 2/9, EDLC 1/9
1B Steer 7/9, Stewart 2/9
2B McLain 5/9, Lux 4/9
3B KBH 7/9, Stewart 2/9
SS EDLC 7/9, McLain 2/9
RF Marte 7/9, Benson 2/9
CF Friedl 7/9, Myers 2/9
LF Bleday 7/9, Myers 2/9
1 Friedl (CF), 2 McLain (2B), 3 EDLC (SS)
4 Marte (RF), 5 Bleday (LF), 6 Steer (1B)
7 Lux (DH), 8 Stephenson (C) 9 KBH (3B)
1 Friedl (CF), 2 McLain (2B), 3 EDLC (SS)
4 Marte (RF), 5 Myers (LF), 6 Steer (1B)
7 Stewart (DH), 8 Stephenson (C) 9 KBH (3B)
Probably something reasonably close to that!
Benson not getting a lot of reps on this team. Wonder if he can function well in that scenario.
Of course we never know about injuries to whom and when and what effect they might have. But we have plenty of depth.
Based off of the current roster, but hopefully they add a power bat still.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Will Benson ends up being the last man standing between him, Bleday and Meyers. What does it say when the first thing your new GM says about you is to slate your defense. Bleday could easily be DFA’d by the end of May.
Meyers probably has a bit more value because he probably the only CF of the bunch. Still, I would rather the Reds pencil in Hector Rodriguez and Rece Hinds for the opening day line up.
Barring injury, Stewart, Elly, and Marte should all play 150+ games.
I don’t think I’d put Stewart or Marte in that group yet. EDLC should play the most, but we’ve abused him last year. I think he’d benefit from some more games off this year. This setup has him at 144 starts, and he’d obviously pinch hit run etc.
I really like how use multiples of nine to divide up the playing time. I find your method to be very helpful in conceptualizing how the various players might be used across a season, identifying strengths and weaknesses on the roster, where the roster can best be improved.
Like most others, Bleday and Myers aren’t exciting moves. However, you illustrate pretty clearly that they are both upgrades to the current roster. That doesn’t mean it’s time to break into a “happy dance,” as the Reds still need some roster improvement.
Of all of the non-tendered players, I saw Bleday as the best fit for the Reds. At his best, he’s a starting every day LF who can legitimately hit in the middle of the order (slots 4 to 6), and thus lengthen the lineup. Ideally, he hits somewhere between five and seven, meaning there’s room for another bat. He gives the Reds the potential to open 2026 without a position expected to be manned via platoon. As a result, if Myers spells an outfielder for a game, the Reds can sub the starter back into the lineup knowing they have optimal matchups for the remainder of the game. So, beyond what improvement Bleday can bring to LF, on paper, he and Myers seem like much better fits than anyone we currently have to complement Marte and Friedl in the outfield.
These additions to have a decent chance of making the Reds incrementally better. Sal Stewart at 3B over Hayes has a decent chance of making them more than incrementally better, I’d say modestly better. I like several minor leaguers better than Blake Dunn but he is the only one who has dramatically better success versus LH pitchers. So pairing Blake with Bleday in LF and Meyers with Friedl (mostly to give TJ more rest) together with Sal at 3B for 7 or 8 innings adds up to an improved lineup. There also is a decent chance of improved play from MM and EDLC. So, with very powerful binoculars you can see much better offensive results in 2026.
CF Friedl/Meyers
2B McLain
SS EDLC
RF Marte
C Stephenson/Trevino
3B Stewart/Hayes
1B Steer
LF Bleday/Dunn
DH Lux/Stephenson/Stewart
I don’t disagree that the owners are terrible but Krall is too and the continual excuse that owners are cheap does not make Krall a good executive. I reviewed his moves since he took over the franchise for Dick Williams after the 2021 debacle. Worst than we thought.
2022
Mike Minor (trade) 10 million -0.8 WAR
Tommy Pham 7.5 million 0.4 WAR
Donovan Solano 4.5 million 0.9 WAR
22 million for 0.5 WAR. woof. What kind of player(s) could a good baseball mind been able to sign for that. Not to mention he got nothing so far for Suarez, Winker, and Gray. Maybe Marte becomes a good player from the Castillo trade.
2023
Will Myers 7.5 million -0.6 WAR
Kevin Newman (trade) 2.6 million -0.4 WAR
Curt Cassali 2.5 million 0.1 WAR
Luke Weaver 2 million -0.7 WAR
Jason Vosler 1 million -0.4 WAR
A new batch of scrubs. I know 15.6 million is not a huge amount in baseball but 0 WAR. Come on. And just for an added bonus he got rid of Jeff Hoffman for nothing and he became of the best relief pitchers in MLB for peanuts. Great job.
2024
Frankie Montas 14 million 0.6 WAR
Nick Martinez 14 million 4 WAR
Jeimer Candelario 13 million -0.7 WAR
Emilio Pagan 8 million 0.3 WAR
Luke Maile 3 million -0.4 WAR
Santiago Espinal (trade) 2.75 million -0.4 WAR
Mike Ford 1.3 million -0.7 WAR
Nick Martini 750k -0.4 WAR
Bubba Thompson 750k -0.3 WAR
So Krall finally has some money to spend so now he will improve the team. Wrong. Krall got one move right and so many more wrong. His ROI for 57.5 million was an atrocious 2 WAR! How did this man keep his job?
2025
Nick Martinez (qualifying offer) 21 million 2.3 WAR
Jeimer Candelario 16 million -0.9 WAR
Brady Singer (trade) 8.75 million 3.1 WAR
Emilio Pagan 8 million 2 WAR
Taylor Rogers 6 million 0.5 WAR
Austin Hays 5 million 0.8 WAR
Jose Trevino (trade) 3.4 million -0.2 WAR
Gavin Lux (trade) 3.3 million -0.2 WAR
Santiago Espinal 2.4 million -1.4 WAR
Not getting any better. 74 million for 6 WAR.
Krall might not have as much money to spend as big market teams but would it really matter. I might have missed a couple middle relief pitchers or backup outfielders that helped somehat but these moves unfortunately sum up Kralls moves to complement the young team full of Williams draft picks that have actually carried the team. Krall whiffs on almost every move he makes to make the team better.
From 2022-2025 he spent roughly 169 million for 8.5 WAR!!
Per season 42 million for 2 WAR…but yeah let’s blame the Dodgers or the Castellinis for this ineptitude.
Wow, that’s a pretty strong argument for pooling all that money into one big name free agent and filling out the roster with DFA claims and AAAA types. At least the free agent would offset the negative WAR.
Exactly. In 2023 Cubs sign Cody Bellinger for 17.5 million
4.8 WAR
26HR/20SB
.307/.356/.525/.881
Krall for for 15.6 million signs a bunch of nobodies that accumulate 0 war.
So Reds could have had a top 10 MVP for about the same money. Not much by the way. Sadly Reds were two wins away from playoffs that year as well.
@LDS
I know what you what you are saying LDS. I would just like to mention that it is a complete fallacy that the Reds would ever move MLB would never allow it. The Reds drew over 2 Million fans last year. There are 10 other teams that would move before the Reds. The MLB has been trying to move the A’s for the past 10 years and it has been a complete disaster with the A’s about to play their third season in a minor league ball park.
What about the concept that someone buys the Reds and puts money into the team and keeps it in Cincinnati? A far more likely scenario.
Interesting summary – I’m not going to defend or criticize, but wonder about the following issues.
1 – There seem to be 2 separate periods involved here – 2022/2023 were bad teams; while all the younger prospects emerging throughout 2023 made the 2024/2025 teams the core to build on. With that, the earlier moves were much more desparately filling holes – i.e. could they have moved Weaver into the bullpen where his value is vastly more apparent?
2 – considering the dilution of $ in the trades, and the lesser $ signings (say <$5M) you see the players they have really spent more serious funds on – Candelario is the obvious budget disaster here; most of the others are marginally good or bad i.e. Montas/Martinez/Pagan/Singer.
3 – if 1 WAR is valued somewhere between $8-12M, the Candelario deal is the only one that really sticks out as a complete miss.
4 – finally, there's a bit of trying to disprove a negative in contemplating the best of all possible moves any GM/POBO could make – have the Reds been just one excellent player move away from a serious playoff run? Maybe late last season, but in 2022?
I guess I end up arguing that the problem remains largely in the ownership's budget rather than management's decisions (which also includes field management and much of the negatives about Bell, and even some over optimism about Tito).
Couple add ons. With 725 Major League plate appearances, we can’t just dismiss the Castillo trade. It isn’t correct to compare Castillo’s 3+ years as a fulltime M’s starter with 106 starts to Marte’s 191 ML games, less than 1.25 seasons. When Marte has accumulated another two full season’s of play and 1200 plate appearances, that is when we can more accurately rate the trade.
Further, there is a pretty decent chance that Marte becomes a power hitting RF which, when you add Edwin Arroyo’s most likely ceiling as a switch hitting utility player backing up EDLC and McLain — especially as a second round draft pick — the trade still carries quite a bit of weight.
But we just won’t know with any certainty until 2028.
725 ML PA’s for Marte .. .
@Optimist, I don’t disagree with your analysis generally. Nonetheless, Krall has failed by any reasonable metric. During his tenure, the Reds have managed 83 wins twice. Yes, they made the playoffs this past season and yes they played tough the last couple of weeks. However, had the Mets played anything resembling mediocre baseball, the Reds would have watched from home instead of being swept by the Dodgers. Results matter, or they should. And neither Krall nor this ownership group have delivered results. It’s time to clean house and start over, even if it means the Reds are moved to somewhere like Nashville.
Excellent set of comments here – to pick up with LDS – I would argue that Krall is not a failure by “any reasonable metric”. The threshhold issue is what is the metric, but even leaving that aside, “failure” is simply too conclusive. Perhaps sub-par, or sllghtly below average, but 4 years in and one bad signing is simply inconclusive.
Having wandered about a bit looking at various team constructions, I went back and looked at the very publicized Epstein/Hoyer work on the WS Cubs – that is clearly excellent GM/POBO work – Rizzo/Arrieta/Fowler/Zobrist/Lester – some very good trades and a big contract FA. The 1961 Reds are considered perhaps the best example of a single off-season improvement via GM work, but the WS Cubs are another example of a few seasons of excellent deals.
As Dave notes, the verdict is still out on the Castillo deal, and aside from that, what bad losses has the present FO had – Luke Weaver, Hoffman?
I’m still at 95%+ ownership, 5% incomplete for the FO.
Cue Richard Fitch!
I wonder if Bob or Phil has ever heard of WAR? Phil maybe, Bob I doubt it.
Did you forget Andujar?
What an indictment! Sheer buffoonery by FO and owners.
Thanks for providing detailed evidence of what we all recognize is sheer ineptitude.
This is a nice analysis, thank you Mauired. A very convincing analysis of Nick Krall’s personnel acumen.
I think one of the Reds’ enduring problems is player evaluation.
A few of these were gigantic, avoidable errors.
Frankie Montas, Wil Meyers, Mike Minor.
Why? Nick Krall’s favorite word……”If….”
Tommy Pham didn’t look awful when the Reds signed him, but he was actually kind of a cancer in the clubhouse, besides not producing much on the field.
As much as people trash the Candelario deal, it did not, originally look as bad as it ended up being, which is pretty bad. However, a lot of people on this here blog thought it was a weird idea to begin with. And the Reds will still be paying him this year, for no value.
Again, we are stuck with Ke’Bryan Hayes and his low OPS, and his bad back. Notice that this offseason, after the Pirates got the Reds to take him off their hands, they made some real deals to improve their team.
Trevino, Maile and Cassali were catching depth that the Reds needed.
“A very convincing analysis of Nick Krall’s personnel acumen.
I think one of the Reds’ enduring problems is player evaluation.”
Although he wasn’t completely in charge at the time I’ve read before in several places that Krall was pretty much the main voice in signing Moose as well.
“A very convincing analysis of Nick Krall’s personnel acumen.
I think one of the Reds’ enduring problems is player evaluation.”
Chad Dotson was back on The Riverfront recently. This is pretty much an exact quote, “Any time you have a chance to pick up a player that was DFA’d by the Athletics you gotta do it.” 😀
@Maui, I like what you did. You included some minor league free agent signings and DFA claims that make your argument look a little stronger than it really is, but still, this paints at least part of the picture.
It would be interesting to see how free agent signings at the various price points pay off league-wide and then compare the Reds’ signing against that. Aside from evidence that shows elite FA tend to remain elite, at least for a few years, I’m not sure what the evidence shows about signings at the smaller-market price points.
The only free agents that seem to typically work out are the top-tier ones. You know, the ones the Dodgers have been realing in. I mean, that’s why they pay them so much, their likelihood of success is much higher.
These two things can both be true (they aren’t mutually exclusive): the Dodgers can be using their superior financial position, while the Castellini ownership group can also be making poor decisions. Until we see the financial capabilities of the franchises leveled, it’s hard to argue that the Reds’ futility is all on their Owners. There are lots of similar market franchises that are also struggling.
@BK It’s dumb analysis.
Someone should tell @Marired that while he’s been on sabbattical, others have applied for the president of the #getkralled club. He’s gonna have to do better than rolling up small deals for players with warts into a ball and acting like that’s evidence of bad decision-making. There’s already a “Hateful 8” here. He’ll have to get in line again.
There are several holes each year to patch and not nearly enough money allocated to fill them. This isn’t the NFL, where you can draft or sign a QB who will transform a club. The baseball version of Joe Burrow doesn’t exist. Reliable 4 or 5 win players don’t sign one-year deals.
Krall has done a pretty good job of building this pitching staff and has maintained a solid farm system ranking for 2025 according to MLB. The other half requires more $$ than ownership is wiling to spend. But Phil isn’t going anywhere. The Hateful 8 know it, so they fixate on Krall because it makes venting feel better.
However, it changes nothing. I did like the “cue Richard Fitch” comment, tho. Kudos.
Yeah so what’s the farm system for Fitch? And get off your high horse. No one writes anything dumb around here besides your digital toilet paper articles.
Maui, you really don’t want to come back to posting, huh? Do you even remember why you got banned for the last year?
Everyone needs to chill out. I’m tired. I’m sick. I’m not going to play camp counselor. Stop attacking others. Stop acting like children.
I actually sent you an email regarding this. I don’t think that was an appropriate post by Fitch at all…pretty hostile to call someone dumb….but i guess he gets a pass for since he writes really bad articles for the site.
Well I will just respond here – I told everyone to chill out, not just you. But since you had to get in your final little “he writes really bad articles for the site” quip I will just take that as you don’t want to continue posting comments.
Even by your math Krall is not even getting half the value of what an mediocrefront office executive should be getting 1 war for 10 million. A good one overperforms that number. Hes not even getting half the value of a mediocre GM. Never going to work in a small market.
@optimist
Ok. Take away the Candelario deal – does that make him average? What example of the excellent deal is there – I’d look at the Yelich/Adames deals. Anyone else?
So you have to take away his marquee signing which backfired miserably just to make him mediocre. That’s rough.
He may not have the money that la or NY has but guess what no Cincinnati GM has or ever will. Going back 100 years or going forward 100 years.
But he has not acquired a single player that has outperformed the money paid. A couple players have (maybe) performed at an average level. But 90% of his players have been busts.
Please anyone. Find a winning GM that has done as bad as Krall.
It’s not rough Maui – it’s the ultimate SSS – 1!. I think Tito is a better manager than Bell, but that doesn’t mean Bell is a bad manager. Same with most everyone other than ownership – it’s either very indeterminate, or lots of very average.
What’s curious is that the Reds are doing very well with the most marginals acquisitions, and how well the Brewers have done with high-WAR acquisitions. I just don’t see much distinction among the rest of baseball – big money does very well, the rest scuffle along, and there are occassional outliers at both extremes – Brewers/Rockies; Cards/White Sox.
Reds have been below average for a long while, with patches of abysmal, but Krall seems to have ended the abysmal. That’s hardly good, but it’s also not bad.
It’s the ownership.
“What’s curious is that the Reds are doing very well with the most marginals acquisitions”
Well thank God Reds have Hunter Greene, Elly, Lodolo, TJ, Stephenson, and Abbott. All players acquired before Krall took over
A reminder of the letter bullet points that the Castellini led ownership sent out when they bought the team.
“We will bring championship baseball to Cincinnati”.
“We will build one of the most respected organizations in baseball”.
“We will have a greater community presence”.
“We will rekindle the Reds nation spirit”.
“We will not rest till you are happy”.
As far as that last “we will” statement goes that must be one extremely tired ownersship!
As a long-time Reds fan who is tired of the front office not taking advantage of the cozy ballpark where they play half their games. Until the last ten years or so, the Reds were usually known for their offense. If the offense is not addressed with a true cleanup hitter, the good pitching will continue to lose more close games.
Disappointment to the n’th degree is all I can say.
If you sign ten JJ Bledays for $1.4 million each, probably one of them will break through and be worth $20 million this year and also be pretty decent the next two years. So sure, in that sense it’s a winning bet, good signing, whatever. But how do you figure out which one is the good one? You can’t play them all. It’s like the “building a bullpen is easy” fallacy.
Taking anything a front office says at face value is a sucker’s game, but “a left-handed hitter that could compete for an every day spot and we’ll see what happens” … is that an endorsement or what.
I am still hoping they sign a good hitter but either way I am excited to see this group of young players play ball again. We are going to win some games, have a winning streak to get excited about and compete for a wildcard spot throughout September, that is what I am looking forward to. And we will be hurt and dejected after games we lose that we could have won, but either way spring and Cincinnati Reds baseball is 6 weeks away!!!
Hope and Prayer is no way to run a team, but we get it year after year.
It seems some of these platoon outfield ideas don’t quite work out how the Reds plan often. What if the left handed platoon guy has a down year or gets injured? What if one is not as good defensively as the other? It’d be refreshing just to have an every day left fielder playing 140 games a year who hits righties and lefties decently.
Last year with Lux, Fraley, Benson, lefties all with different strengths weaknesses and then injury issues for Fraley. I think it limited the Reds at times in games with that type of roster construction.
Maybe this is how Francona’s Guardian team were. It seemed they had a few really good players such as Jose Ramirez and then maybe jt was mixing and matching often throughout the lineup.
Bleday doesn’t have big splits over the last two seasons. If he hits, like he did in 2024 and post allstar break last season, he’s the everyday LF. Myers, on the other hand, is a platoon player, but among our glut of outfielders, only Friedl and Steer hit LHP well and the want Steer defensively at 1B.
Agree about Steer. He needs to be the first baseman this year.
I think Steer will be the primary 1B but will sit some games for Stewart who will DH, but also play some at 1B, 2B, and 3B. As long as he is healthy, Stewart should start 150+ games this year.
This guy is the sole reason you all will be staring at an 86 career OPS+ bat with an iffy back at 3B for the next three years. Enough said.
The Reds are trying to corner the market on this type of player.
I’ve never heard of Dane Meyers honestly. Hard to get excited when they are signing players a lot of us have never even heard of! On a separate but note of curiosity, I wonder what Reds players maybe fans of other teams have never heard of that actually have played a little on the Reds.
But…if these are just moves to kind of tighten up the roster, I’m ok with that. If they feel Bleday is better than Will Benson, or Dane Meyers a better option than Rece Hinds as like 4th-5th outfielders, platoon players occasionally, I’d give the Reds a little benefit of the doubt.
But, if these are kind of the main moves, then it’d be pretty discouraging overall. Maybe Krall really think Steer, Marte, Mclain, EDC are all really going to click this upcoming year and carry the team. But man I think it’d give a lot more hope and excitement if they could just find 1 new above average every day bat. I think they honestly need at least 2 to contend for the Division title, but even 1 guy, a Ketel Marte, Teoscar Hernandez type from last year’s free agency, etc. would be refreshing.
I almost think Krall is a little gun shy on making a big move. It is a little tricky though of course. Santander looks to potentially be a terrible signing for the Blue Jays…Bo Bichette I don’t think is worth 200 million or so. You could be burned, but also fans would respect a big attempt at something whether free agency or a trade. This is Krall’s team now…if they don’t improve on last year and take another step, not sure how they could justify keeping him as the GM.
If I were him, I’d kind of go all out within the constraints of what money can be spent. But also I’d go all out on not hanging onto all his prospects. These teams like the Rays, Orioles, Guardians…, even the Brewers a bit…they’ve done some great things, had great seasons, but I think they have this pie in the sky idea of wanting to be more consistently good every year, hang onto most of their prospects, and be competitive every year. But they don’t win World Series. Of course it’s hard for anyone to do that, but these type of teams like the Reds, I’d sell a lot of the farm if I could improve especially this current Major League roster with the Reds.
Dane Myers was a hot name to trade for last year around these parts after he had a stellar first half in Miami before absolutely cratering in the second half of the year. My hope is they see something they think they can fix and can get a useful cheap player in Myers for a few years. I do like that he can backup CF and play all three spots. Can be this year’s lefty masher.
I guess I look at these league minimum deals very differently. For example, I’d much prefer bleday taking those at bats we gave hurtibese, Hampson and fraley last year. Bledays ops after the all star break (and return from AAA demotion) was .810. Much better than most of our regulars.
Also, if I can have Meyers spell Friedl in center throat the year so TJ can still run in august and September, then that can only be a good thing. Tj ops after the all star break was .694. And his defense was pretty poor most of the year. His body won’t let him play 150 games.
Krall simply doesn’t have the money to get a significant offensive upgrade this year. What he has left he needs for the bullpen. I’d still like to see Andujar on the team but I don’t think Krall even has 5m$ left for him. Not his fault.
They owe Candelario 16 million next year to hangout at house in Miami (most likely). Is that not Kralls fault?
Absolutely. You have to wonder, after your recitation above, if Krall is on thin ice with the ownership group. If the Reds go backward in 2026 (and it is certainly possible), he might get canned.
Will it them be Meador’s turn? Does this ever get better?
Sure, it’s Krall’s fault (though injury may have played a role), but the question is: can any GM say with a straight face that he never made a bad signing? And we cannot discount the impact of the financial limitations with which Krall is saddled. He’s unlikely to sign or trade for outstanding talent that is offered more money by other teams. He might still be bad at the job, certainly, but we don’t know how he’d do in different, less constrained, circumstances.
“the question is: can any GM say with a straight face that he never made a bad signing?”
After doing the research it’s pretty obvious nearly every player Krall picks is not good. The only team success is really from the young core that was put in place by Dick Williams. Krall is in year five and has failed over and over to make an impact. Funny how Brewers seem to dominate year after year with around the same payroll and that fact just gets ignored in Cincinnati so everyone can cry poor and use that as the excuse for any bad job.
“After doing the research it’s pretty obvious nearly every player Krall picks is not good.”
“Nearly every”? Every FA, trade and draft pick?
Here are the top picks in the drafts from 2025 to 2022
Hall
Burns, Lewis
Lowder
Collier, Stewart
And Duno as an international signing
At least this is moving away from SSS, though it’s still too early to judge ultimate success or failure.
The GM and Pres are not really making the decisions on the draft picks or the international signings. They are giving the final decisions on trade and free agent signings.
Hey Mauired. Well yes it is Kralls “fault” however I never saw anyone who said that Candelario would tank. Most people and websites saw it as a good signing. Only think negative I saw what questioning if we needed a third baseman as I recall. So for me to ding Krall for Candelario is hind sight.
Brian – maybe not the final choice on draft picks, but the department and staff report to them, so there’s accountability and some responsibility – the $ involved are similar to FA signings.
RForBust – Maui’s correct about how bad the Candelario deal was, and IIRC correctly w/o going back and searching comments, it was beyond just “hey, why a 3bman”. I was likely mild about it, but thought, wait a minute – is he really that good, especially after we were in midst of the Moustakas episode. TBF, the Myers deal, though lesser, struck me as even more baffling.
I never brought up draft picks since none of them has made any impact positive or negative….doesn’t seem relevant. Just another way to sidestep the issue here. Krall has done almsot nothing to complement the talent that was left to him. In fact the Reds would have probably had more success of he just did nothing at all. Geno and Sonny Gray were on the most team friendly (value) contracts on the country. He traded away both and others in the name of salary dumping. The only problem is he went right around and spent the same money on bad players.
Gray 2022 10 million (2.4 war)
Geno 2022 11 million (41. war)
Minor 2022 10 million (-0.8 war)
Pham 2022 7.5 million (0.4 war)
Solano 2022 4.5 million (0.9 war)
The blame was always that Castellinis were at fault because they didn’t want to spend money and to a certain extent that was true. But why did Krall dump team friendly contracts and turn around and spend the money on bad players instead.
Got even uglier in 2023 when the Reds fell two games short of playoffs to Diamondbacks (team that reached World Series)
2023 Gray 12 million (5.6 war) cy young runner up. That’s incredible value. (Dick Williams)
2023 Geno 11 million (2.4 war)
2023 Myers 7.5 million (-0.6 war)
2023 Newman 2.6 million (-0.4 war)
2023 Casali 2.5 million (0.1 war)
2023 Weaver 2 million (-0.7 war)
2023 Farmer 1.75 million (1.1 war)
2023 Vosler 1 million (-0.4 war)
I’m sure the Reds could have spared a couple extra million to have a cleanup hitter and near cy young winning pitcher on a pennant contender instead of the collection of dregs Krall signed instead. Gets even more obvious in 2024/25 how bad Krall is compared to Williams. And I’m not saying Williams was great and never made mistakes (Shogo, Moose) but he looks like Howsom compared to Krall.
2024 Geno 11 million (3.1 war)
2024 Candelario 13 million (-0.7 war)
2025 Geno 15 million (final year Reds contract) (3.6 war) 49 homeruns
2025 Candelario 16 million (-0.9 war) 2 homeruns
Actually Redsfan if you go back to Doug’s post on the signing the vast majority of people hated the money and called it moose 2.0
The same few people that said it would not be Moose 2.0 are now saying most people thought it was a good move at the time. They were wrong then but don’t want to admit it 3 years later so they make revisionist history.
I didn’t think it would be the disaster it would be but I did think it was a completely unnecessary overpay. And I said at the time he was at best an average bat making above average money and he was just going to block playing time from better younger players and take money away from bigger roster needs. At least I was wrong about blocking players. Reds are paying him 16 million to for a year long vacation.
At least we have KeBryan Hayes to fix the situation Krall got us in!
Which BTW most people at the time also said was a terrible move but I’m sure the revisionists will say that everyone loved it and thought it was great.
Maui – let’s not get caught in recency bias – the draft picks certainly matter, and are a vital part of FO actions. It takes several years to see how they work out, but we can certainly see that from the Williams years, and the Jocketty years. Point being that the last 4 seasons look pretty good so far, but again, wiat and see.
As for the trade analysis, there’s a lot of what ifs and cherry picking there. The immediate obvious counter is the Mahle deal (and the Twins fans blogs are still muttering about it). Again, some recency bias as well – we just don’t know yet if they work out, and there’s plenty of hindsight as well in crediting the Suarez and Gray stats to the Reds in those years.
It’s some fantasy alternate history to project the Reds into the WS in the DBacks spot if only . . .
I’m still back to the Candelario deal was bad, the Myers deal baffling, and even those along with all the rest don’t amount to all that much. Ownership sets the budget, and the FO for the past 15-20 years has neither tanked or overperformed outside random chance.
Optimist i will let you have the last word. I have presented the data. There’s no cherry picking. The trade you mentioned with Twins gave us Steer and CES. CES has been a complete bust up to now. More hope I guess and Steer has provided. 5 war. Mahle since the trade has provided 2.9 war. Not a huge win for Krall but I guess we have to dig deep to find something for the guy to hang his hat on. One decent trade for an average hitter. And 35 million to Martinez a sold not spectacular two years. He has a couple moves that were ok that basically didn’t look like a dumpster fire. The rest of his moves small medium and large were dumpster fires. The only thing keeping him employed his the core his predecessor put in place for him.
The Brewers get invoked frequently in this context, and it’s certainly a valid point. How do they manage it? My theory is that somebody in the organization sold his soul to the Devil in exchange for the team’s improbable success but, sulfurous fumes aside, they are a bit of a black swan, wouldn’t you say? The Guardians have had some success as a low-budget enterprise, but they aren’t sustaining it. The Brewers may well be the best run organization in the game, and present a very high bar.
“Bledays ops after the all star break (and return from AAA demotion) was .810. Much better than most of our regulars.”
Jason Burke has a good analysis of this…he writes/
Bleday would come up at the beginning of August and ended up hitting a little better. He’d bat .252 with a .306 on-base and a 115 wRC+. While it looks like he turned things around completely in the final two months, that’s not exactly the case because most of the stats that ended up being accumulated in the second half came against left-handed pitching, as he was having a reverse split season. Bleday would hit .324 against left-handers on the year, compared to just a .180 average against right-handers.
Bleday was also able to hold an .870 OPS against lefties, along with a .370 OBP, but it’s worth noting that those came with a .404 BABIP, which he’s highly unlikely to repeat again in 2026. He has also not shown those types of splits in his career before, so it’s difficult to peg him for a lefty masher in the long-term”
Let’s also remember the A”s know him better than anyone and they DFA’d him after the season.
And, as with all of the A’s, they were playing half of their games in a AAA stadium which sure looks like it inflated their hitters’ numbers quite a bit. At least after year one.
I’ll counter with the fact that Bleday has never had reverse splits before. If we’re going to play the SSS card, we should look for other anomalies, too, if we’re being intellectually honest. Also, the A’s are set with corner OF–note they just extended Tyler Soderstrom to play LF and they have Lawrence Bulter in RF, who is pre-arb and promising. I would encourage you to go take a gander at the recent history of A’s payrolls–it’s not at all surprising that they would DFA (effectively non-tender) a player who was no longer going to play for the major league minimum if he’s not a starter. The A’s make the Reds look like they spend with abandon.
“Let’s also remember the A”s know him better than anyone and they DFA’d him after the season.”
😀 smh
Come on V4L. This guy writes for an Oakland athletics fan site. Of course he is going to make it look like a player leaving is worthless. Did he also comment about JJ’s very good 2024 performance in the cavernous Oakland coliseum?
No one is saying JJ Bleday is going to transform the 2026 Cincinnati reds into an offensive juggernaut. He’s just a halfway decent option who fits in the budget to make sure we don’t need to play Gavin lux in left field. Or someone like Conner Joe and Garrett Hampson.
He also has a minor league option and can be sent down easily.
Well one can never enough pitching, oh wait in this case one can never have enough outfielder.
I don’t understand the last two signings. Reds need a power bat. Not another Blake Dunn, or Stuart Fairchild. Yes, I know Fairchild is no longer a Red. One has to wonder if a big trade or two is in the works? Otherwise these last two acquisitions make no sense.
I hear the Barnum and Bailey circus music now. LDS has been saying last 5 years. This organization is not serious.
“I hear the Barnum and Bailey circus music now. LDS has been saying last 5 years. This organization is not serious”.
And yet here we all are year after year complaining and dissecting what AAAA players are being added, subtracted and who they will platoon with at their position. All the while a couple of blue chippers that we stumbled into (Elly,Hunter) rot on the vine until they become too expensive and need to be traded.
” One has to wonder if a big trade or two is in the works? ”
It would seem Reds fans are in a constant state of wondering that. 😀
I’ve always been more on the “Krall probably deserves the benefit of the doubt considering the ownership group’s pocketbook tendencies,” more than the “fire Krall, he’s clearly incompetent,” bandwagon. Still, with these kinds of deals and the sign->DFA of relief pitching to accommodate them, the vision is getting a lot hazier.
I’m mostly ok with the Bleday deal; getting a former top prospect as a bounce-back candidate is a good buy low deal, but you can’t be operating a team counting on 3 or 4 of those to perform every day.
If they’re not going to sign a difference maker on offense, then they might as well commit to the youth movement and see what happens with Dunn, Hinds, Callihan, etc. Or commit real prospect capital and swing a trade. These reclamation projects are getting tiresome.
Last paragraph +1,000,000. Spending on guys whose chances of succeeding are likely no better than the guy(s) in the organization at the AAA/AAAA level who are younger doesn’t make a lot of sense.
If we, The Fans, are to be expected to buy into The Plan, and a very large part of The Plan is developing players from within for the ML club as well as for use in trades, and if those players are marketed to the public at a strong pace, it follows that those players should be given real opportunities to succeed at the ML level, via playing or trade. It does not follow that those players should be passed over without a real opportunity. That would suggest they are not as good as advertised, which violates The Plan, especially the section where our broadcasters are used for PR (vs calling the game, reporting on the clubhouse and doing things like asking questions*), and part of that PR is marketing our fountain of youth.
*another story for another day
@Dave, the Reds have tons of internally developed or trade-acquired prospects on their team:
Starting pitchers: Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, Burns, Lowder, Petty, Williamson, Aguilar
Relievers: Santillan, Philips, Ashcraft, Mey, Maxwell
DH – Stewart
1B – Steer
2B – McLain
SS – EDLC
RF – Marte
C – Stephenson
CF – Friedl
Thirteen pitchers who will all be expected to contribute in 2026, and seven of the nine starting positions in the field. I don’t remember a time in the last 25 years when the Reds had more homegrown talent. Let’s face it, it’s frustrating to see a team with so much promise unable to add another couple of proven pieces. To me, that’s an MLB problem, not a Reds problem.
@BK,
The Pirates were able to add two very solid MLB pieces, one of whom we both coveted for the Reds, as well as a top 100 OF prospect. So 3 very impressive adds for them on the position player side.
It was out there for the Reds to improve. Maybe it still is. But so far, the Pirates (!) are the envy of the Reds fan’s offseason.
@ATH, I kinda get that. The Pirates’ payroll, with their additions, is still $13M below the Reds. That’s what happens when you close the 2025 season $34M below the Reds’ payroll. Context matters.
BK, as I think you know, I promote the Reds minor leaguers more than many if not most here. In fact, i usually point out that Krall has likely had a hand in player acquisitions before the days he can claim as his regime.
In this case, however, responding to the Hinds/Dunn comment above regarding these transactions, and the apparent passing over Hinds, Dunn, & Callihan to a degree, contradicts the club’s rhetoric and PR. And that carries a certain hypocrisy — telling us to buy into players but then seemingly informing us they are not good enough or not in the picture after all.
The point being, if they want the benefit of our doubt, as well as our dollars, they need to earn it — every day. In this case, they are not. The fans are rightfully angry given the confusion such as this coming from the front office.
As a recent example, two weeks ago, Krall stated Dunn was in the picture for a CF role. Two weeks later, he acquires a RH CF. Being one who applauded the idea of Dunn getting a fair opportunity to earn a role — not the haphazard, platooning of last spring — having Dunn now put back down a notch or two just sucks.
Further, being informed last season that Rece Hinds was sent to AAA for the year to work on things, then accomplish many of those things, and hearing about those accomplishments via the org’s marketing of it young players, sets up an expectation. But having this year’s version of Connor Joe or Garret Hampson (ok thats a bit harsh) being brought in above those players is confusing to say the least, and frustrating for fans. An established bat? Fine. We get it. Borderline platoon players when we already have those? Not so much.
I detest baseball’s current economics. But economics do not mean the Reds front office gets a pass. This issue, for me, is not a major error but it is an error. It’s why i responded the other day facetiously asking Nick Krall to explain these acquisitions (IMO a club statement prior to later interviews would have helped the public understand). My question, then and now, echoed by many others, was, What does this mean for Hinds and Dunn, as many, many are invested in them?
And given the fans continued good will, buying into our minor leaguers, especially our recency biased 2025 success stories, not Hunter Greene, there must also be room for rightful anger and frustration that isn’t an issue of baseball’s macro economics.
Nick Krall has certain competencies. But sometimes he is his own worst enemy, and communications is probably the one area I notice most. Poor coms cause confusion. Confusion is not helpful.
@Dave,
Hinds, Dunn, & Callihan all have warts. None are, nor were they ever, top prospects. And for good reason. To me, developing from within does not mean live and die with all your prospects. It should mean develop your top ones and put them in the best place to succeed. This means Stewart, Burns, and Lowder. Not Hinds, Dunn, and Callihan.
I get the infatuation RLN commenters have with Hinds. But it took him til age 24 to have a break out season. Some folks point to his 2023. It was not very good, actually. His K rate and BB/K was abysmal. He did better in 2025. But it was one season and it was age 24. He has an option. Let’s see if he can repeat it. A high percentage of guys who finally break out at age 24 don’t back it up. I’m rooting for him. In Louisville.
@Dave, I don’t like all of the Reds/Kralls moves, but at @ATH says, the players you’re advocating for have some pretty obvious warts. You are dismissing the fact that you and others may be overvaluing the players you listed. I like ALL players in the Reds system and want them all to be successful. For me, that includes recently acquired players. I want the Reds to win, and I want them to play the best possible players. The idea that every player will get an extended opportunity at the major league level is an unrealistic expectation, not hypocrisy. No MLB team operates like that. “Real opportunities” include time in the minor leagues.
As for Krall, he hosted a video call with Reds beat writers and answered all of their questions–far better communication than simply putting out a press release. As someone who follows the Reds closely, I’ve missed the hype you’ve seen for Hinds, Dunn, and Callihan. I’ve heard reports on how they were doing, and that has included improvement in 2025, but I haven’t heard anyone from the Reds hyping them like they are legit difference makers. They have not been discussed to the same level as players like Sal Stewart, Burns, McLain, Steer, etc.
With Hinds in particular, almost all of the hype for him originates right here. I’m not seeing how that is Krall or the Reds fault.
Hampson and Joe were in-season bandaids. Bleday and Myers are being brought in to compete for opening day roster spots. Objectively, they both bring some skills and production not present on the Reds roster. They both have options so Hind, Benson, HRod, Calihan or Dunn could beat them out in Spring Training and earn Opening Day roster spots. If Bleday or Myers are in the minors, they get minor league pay, so there’s no financial risk. Aside from the two pitchers who were DFA to clear 40-man roster spots, I’m struggling to see downside to these two minor moves.
I don’t get your point in your last paragraph. If we compare Bleday to Hinds, Bleday has had legit sustained success at the major league level. Hinds is no longer a prospect, and he’s noticeably absent from discussion outside of the RLN comment sections. Bleday had a down year in 2025 and was still a better hitter than any other option on the Reds roster except for Lux or Steer, neither of whom is ideal in the outfield defensively.
Similarly, Myers has outplayed Dunn at the major league level. While I don’t see either Bleday or Myers as major additions, you seem to want the Reds to avoid incremental improvement unless they can also deliver major improvement.
I would also encourage you to take a look at the Reds’ minor league system. There are some average near major league prospects and some very good far away prospects. I don’t think the Reds will trade Burns, Lowder, Stewart, or Duno. Our other prospects are just not highly regarded according to national writers. I’m not against moving prospects, but I’m against overpaying with prospects.
Moreover, neither player stops Hinds or Dunn from developing at AAA. I don’t think there is a single Reds fan who wouldn’t prefer to see the team make a significant upgrade, but that shouldn’t preclude making incremental changes.
I would have moved Lowder and Lewis for a major addition if it would get the job done. Lowder just missed an entire year while accruing service time and was a TJS possibility before his back made him rest his arm as well. Lewis, I have some very real swing and miss concerns about and there is a chance that this is his high water mark as a prospect. I hope i’m wrong, but if those two would have brought back Jarren Duran, I would have pulled the trigger. Duno, Stewart, and Burns are untouchables for me. I’d be very reluctant to move Hector Rodriguez or Steele Hall as well, but wouldn’t call them untouchable. Hall should line up as an Elly replacement and has an elite tool in his speed and could have four other average to plus tools as well. His defense and arm are already good, we need more data on his hit and power tools to get more of a read there. Hector hits with authority and has elite contact rates. He could be our LF by June if Bleday/Myers/Hinds/Benson don’t get it done.
@BK,
Nice read. Agree with you.
It’s quite a stretch for anyone to conclude that Hinds/Dunn are performance peers of Bleday/Myers. Not even close. We hope that changes one day. But it would not be prudent to conclude the Reds are better off depending on unproven players in 2026.
@Duke
I would do that trade for Duran for sure. And it’s probably reasonable for both sides.
@Duke, I would love to see the Reds acquire Duran. I wouldn’t mind sending Lowder and Lewis, but I could see the Red Sox pushing back for the reasons you detailed. Lowder’s current value is well below where it was entering 2025. Moreover, the Red Sox, like the Reds, seem to be after MLB-level talent. Lodolo would likely be the best fit from the Reds, but it’s not an exact value match either, and that seems to be more important than ever in trades. Acquiring Duran would be an ideal move IMO.
Tristan Casas may be another target from the Red Sox. With the Reds, he would likely DH. Perhaps something like Petty and CES for Casas and a minor league Red Sox pitcher would be fair. He’d be another bounce-back candidate, but he has the power that the Reds need and very narrow splits so he could play every day. DH would be a good place to help him settle back into baseball, too. He also has options, so it’s low-risk from that standpoint. Lineup:
1. Friedl, CF
2. Marte, RF
3. EDLC, SS
4. Stewart, 1B
5. Casas, DH
6. Stephenson, C
7. Bleday, LF
8. Hayes, 3B
9. McLain, 2B
Bench: Trevino, Steer, Lux, Myers
Casas or Kristian Campbell from Red Sox, or Coby Mayo/Heston Kjerstad from Orioles.
Find a way to acquire one of those guys. They don’t seem to have a place to play on their current team.
Pirates pried Garcia from Red Sox. He wasn’t the one I wanted though.
When will the Reds start doing more extensions?
https://blogredmachine.com/another-small-market-extension-makes-reds-inaction-impossible-to-ignore?utm_campaign=FanSided+Daily&utm_source=FanSided+Daily&utm_medium=email&sc=c3a8b03aa4675c74ec4c35e25be58c93e3c61b5ef7e6fc8f70a8923b59647687
Did the Reds miss out on Jeff McNeil? Pretty good splits?
https://blogredmachine.com/reds-prospect-friendly-mets-trade-expire-chasing-luis-robert-jr?utm_campaign=FanSided+Daily&utm_source=FanSided+Daily&utm_medium=email&sc=c3a8b03aa4675c74ec4c35e25be58c93e3c61b5ef7e6fc8f70a8923b59647687
https://www.mlb.com/player/jeff-mcneil-643446?stats=splits-r-hitting-mlb&year=2025
I think this blog has been outed by several people as being less than legitimate.
This is just a writer expressing his opinion which is done every day on here and makes for good discussion.
Rece Hinds was 0-19 with 13 K’s against major league lefty pitchers.
In 2025 he accumulated -0.4 WAR with a slash line of .116/.136/.279/.415. His OPS + was 9. Yet folks are clamoring to hand him an outfield job. From June 24th to July 5th, Hinds played regularly. He went 2-23 with 10K’s and no walks and no extra base hits.
He walked once in 2025 and struck out 21x.
Reds are so sure Hinds isnt the guy they are making Noelvi Marte their every day RF. He has at least earned the opportunity with a credible track record against legit MLB pitching.
Reds arent great but this isnt a welfare state where you are handed playing time when you aren’t remotely competitive at the plate.
Aristides aquino at least had a Barry Bonds month.
Hinds was Barry bonds for 5 days in 2024. Thats it.
If a right handed hitter cant remotely compete against major league lefty pitching, then he has zero value. Hinds was 0 fer in 2025 against lefty pitchers. Not one hit. He is certainly not going to clean up on Garret Crochet and Sonny Gray opening weekend and let alone Paul Skenes Jared Jones Bailey falter or Mitch Keller 2nd series. Jacob DeGrom and Nathan Eovaldi Rangers third series? How ‘bout Marlins 4 th series with Eury Perez Braxton Garret Edward Cabrera and Sandy Alcantara?
How bout the bullpen?
Red Sox Aroldis Chapman Closer
Pirates Gregory Soto power lefty
Rangers Robert Garcia lefty closer.
Marlins just signed Pete Fairbanks.
Rece Hinds aint the answer.
I’m not convinced Hinds isn’t the answer in the future. It’s unlikely though. And he’s definitely not the answer at the start of 2026 for sure.
Too many folks here are giddy about the one year breakout at age 24, however. A one year break out late in the prospect development cycle does not make one a top prospect. He’s got an option. He shouldn’t be playing anywhere but Louisville until he proves 2024 was not a fluke.
2025 rather
If I’m not mistaken Hinds had a good year in 2023, an off year in 2024, and very good year in 2025 while learning a new position in CF. I wouldn’t call it a one year break out. He was only 24 and turned 25 in September. Dunn started last year with the Reds and was given a chance after having a good 2024 and spring training. If Hinds has a good spring training he should be in and given an extended chance in my view. It’s just crazy not to give a young guy with that much all around talent that chance that he’s needing.
2023 – AVG/OBP/SLG: .269/.330/.536
HR: 20
RBI: 98
SB: 20
2024 – AVG/OBP/SLG: .216/.290/.409
HR: 13
RBI: 41
SB: 12
2025 –
https://www.milb.com/player/rece-hinds-677956
Hinds 2023
K rate 33%
K:BB 4.44
I’m rooting for him. But those 2023 numbers above are abysmal for a 22 year old prospect.
Much better this past year. But again, age 24 he has age advantage in AAA. He didn’t show much until this past year. Maybe he can repeat it. MLB is not the place to find out though.
I am rooting for him.
De La Cruz’s K rates in MiLB weren’t a whole lot better. ~25-28%
EDLC MLB K rate in 2023: 31.3 In 2024: 33.7. K / BB 3.16.
In 2025 he chipped it down to 26%, yet still struck out 180+ times.
Working it out at the MLB level.
McLain K rate in 2025: 28.9
I’m not trying to leverage a direct comparison between Hinds and De La Cruz.
But focusing on K rates for young hitters can distort an overall assessment.
Hinds might not be the answer, but Dane Meyers isn’t the answer either.
But “Signing a big bopper!” isn’t going to happen either.
I hope there are enough ABs to go around in ST to have a real sober look at all these young players.
You say you’re not comparing Elly to Hinds but essentially you’re comparing Elly at age 21 in MLB to Hinds age 22 in AA? I mean that’s what it looks like.
Elly age 19 had .874 OPS. Elly age 20 had .945 OPS. Elly age 21 in AAA had 1.031 OPS.
See the progression?
Hinds has none of that. Prior to last year, Hinds was a very high K, low production all throughout his MiL career. No Progression. No good years to progress from until 2025. Again, he had one breakout year at age 24.
I hope he succeeds. But one solid year late in his development cycle moves the needle a little, not a lot.
ATH I think you are really underselling Rece Hinds’ minor league production. No good years until 2025? He put up an .834 OPS in Daytona when he was 20 (the league OPS was .714 that year). In 2023 he put up an .866 OPS in Double-A when he was 22 (the league OPS that year was .740). He’s had several well above-average offensive seasons. 2025 was the best of the bunch, but he’s been good a few other times, too.
@CenTexRed
“Hinds might not be the answer, but Dane Meyers isn’t the answer either.”
No one has said that Dane Myers was acquired to start. He was brought in as a potential bench player who can play CF and hit RHP. Myers is only tangentially related to Hinds. Hinds will be fighting for playing time with Bleday, Benson, and maybe Steer if the Reds add a 1B–something that I agree looks increasingly unlikely.
@Doug
The Daytona results were 185 PAs and 2023 came with 34:151 BB:K in 461 PAs which is quite bad for a 22-23 year old. If he’s 20 or 21 I’m giving him a break if he does that but he turned 23 that year.
And every slight bit of progress he made (if you gloss over the bad parts) was met with an atrocious next year. After the small sample in Daytona, 2022 was .732 OPS with 39% (!) Ks. Then after 2023 in AA he produced .658 OPS and 38% Ks in 2024.
No progression, no sustainability, and you have to toss a lot of bad things aside to see anything positive up until 2025.
If he backs it up this year in AAA, maybe he gets his chance. But history suggests he’s in for a rough year, unfortunately.
ATH, I just can’t agree with almost anything you are coming to a conclusion on with regards to Rece Hinds. The guy put up an .866 OPS in Double-A at age 22 after playing in 54 whole games between 2019, 2020, and 2021 and you are saying if he were a year younger you might give him a break. That’s silly to me, man.
Sure, I mean if we’re valuing a year 3 years ago where he K’d 151 times in 461 PAs and ignoring the larger body of work, the bad years and regressions, I mean you can squint and maybe see something prior to 2025.
” From June 24th to July 5th, Hinds played regularly. He went 2-23″
Twenty-three ABs is playing regularly?
Hinds was putrid and non-competitive against MLB lefties
0-19 with 13 K’s.
Jose barrero and Aristides Aquino were good hitting against 28 yo retreads for the Omaha Storm Chasers facing them for the 3rd time in 5 days.
So you are saying run him out there against Garret Crochet and Sonny gray and Paul Skenes and Jacob DeGrom and Eury Perez and let him hit against Aroldis Chapman late in a game that first 15 games?
Well this discussion goes on and on and nothing against your personally. I’m not going to go back and look it all up again. As I recall though Hinds was facing some of the toughest lefties in the game at that time that virtually no one else was hitting either. He was playing because he was a RH hitter facing those TOUGH lefties. Not much of a chance to succeed.
The most telling stat for Hinds in MLB in 2025 was this:
He made contact with only 60.3% if pitches “in the zone”. MLB average is 85.4%.
Small sample of course. But that stat is the definition of “over-matched”
Feels like there might be a spot left for a hitter and a RP.
IF: Elly, Lux, McClain, Steer, Stewart, Hayes
This feels mostly set. Stewart is gonna play, and I could see him DH’ing a bunch as long as he hits. I wouldn’t rule out CES just yet either. He probably starts in the minors but could also be in play if he hits well in the spring.
OF: Friedl, Marte, Bleday, Myers
Bleday and Myers almost definitely have the inside track on the LF spot. Rodriguez, Benson, Hinds, Dunn, and Callihan will all compete for a spot in ST but are probably on the outside looking in. I think a Robert deal is definitely unlikely at this point but it wouldn’t surprise me; if any deal happens, Hinds and/or Benson (and maybe Rodriguez) are probably going out.
C: Stephenson, Trevino
This is a huge year for Stephenson.
DH: Open
Andujar makes a ton of sense here, and that wouldn’t surprise me at all. I could also see them waiting until spring training to see if anyone grabs this spot before investing – Stewart, Lux, and CES could work here.
SP: Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, Singer, Burns
Could be one of the best rotations in baseball. Lowder starts in AAA but could make Singer expendable at the deadline.
RP: Pagan, Santillan, Phillips, Ashcraft, Ferguson, Mey, Maxwell
I think this is where they add yet, and I think it’ll be moderately splashy. I think one of Mey or Maxwell make it, but not both.
So all in all, they’re probably about done. The roster isn’t as doom and gloom as it feels, even if they didn’t make any deals for a big bat. You get the Candelario deal off the books next season and maybe spend more money after some CBA certainty. This is not what many (including myself) wanted but I sorta get it. Another year of seeing if the internal OF prospects will pan out, and the flexibility to add salary at the deadline.