Late on Monday night Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer wrote about the Cincinnati Reds and Kyle Schwarber. Sort of. The title was a bit misleading, saying “Nick Krall, Cincinnati Reds make pitch, wait on Kyle Schwarber’s call” but within the text of the article there was nothing at all to indicate that the team had talked to him with Terry Francona refusing to say if he had spoken to him and president of baseball operations Nick Krall simply telling him that he was not going to talk about any offers he might have made. 12 hours after that was published word came out that Schwarber was going back to the Philadelphia Phillies on a 5-year deal for $150,000,000.
In the story from ESPN’s Jeff Passan he talked about the interest from teams outside of Philadelphia, including from the Reds but notes that they weren’t able to pay him enough.
Update at 3:15pm ET
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic is reporting that the Reds offered Schwarber a 5-year deal for $125,000,000 “with room to grow”, but what “room to grow” means was not specified.
Original article continues below
“Cincinnati, the dark horse because of its need for a power bat and its appeal to Schwarber — who grew up about 30 minutes outside of the city — did not meet the financial demands others were willing to.”
The Reds were said to be serious about signing Kyle Schwarber. Or so that’s what some stories were telling us. But if they weren’t willing to pay him what just about everyone knew he was going to get were they actually serious or were they just hoping to get a big hometown discount?
Around the same time that the piece from the Cincinnati Enquirer came out, another piece was written by Brian McTaggart of MLB.com about another player that the Reds were interested in, only this time it was a trade target. And it’s about as opposite of a player as Kyle Schwarber as you can get. Outfielder Jake Meyers is reportedly being shopped around by Houston. He’s coming off of his best season in the big leagues where he hit .292/.354/.373 with three home runs. Meyers is also an outstanding defensive center fielders. And he’s projected to make about 1/10th of what Schwarber makes in a season. The 29-year-old Meyers is under contract for the next two seasons if he remains in the big leagues.
Perhaps the Reds were having the idea that they could add both Schwarber and Meyers – it’s not as if they would be fighting for playing time with each other. But there’s just such a huge swing in the types of players they are and what they would bring to the team both in terms of on field performance and just the general reaction from the fanbase that it feels like being promised a nice, fancy dinner for your birthday and then the family winds up taking you go Charles Entertainment Cheese for chicken tenders.
I don’t believe we ever had a chance. We are never going to pony up the funds that are needed to move to a higher level.
New here but the Reds aren’t going to make a big splash in free agency. Maybe add a marginal player here and there. A franchise wanting to compete would build on the young foundation of players here but the Reds aren’t interested in competing. Those players will be traded eventually and another rebuild will follow. It’s the Reds Way.
Chuck E. Cheese is the Red’s result of many a trade rumor.
Charles Entertainment Cheese! Who knew?
Kind of a bummer they didn’t even make an offer. After reading Krall’s comments on MLB website it sounded like it never got that far. As a fan Im starting to wonder what happens when the current crop of starting pitchers start to hit free agency. For whatever reason they haven’t developed offense and without spending money it could get dark around here fast. Never been a better time to make a trade with a big chip like Hunter Greene.
In the Red’s defense, they never led us to believe they were interested in Schwarber anyways. Kyle made a comment and it grew legs.
They could have squashed that rumor at any time but chose not to. After they ship Hunter Greene out ,Elly will be next. I imagine in 2028.
“They could have squashed that rumor at any time but chose not to.”
For sure. This kind of thing has happened before more than once. It’s what they do.
As far as Elly goes Reds, IMHO, have to trade Elly and 2028 sounds right. Reds simply can not afford not to trade him and get max value. We have had him for years and nothing but a one time Mets gift to go to the playoffs, with the added bonus of playing two games at Dodger stadium against the Dodgers to show for it. Unless the new CBA comes to the rescue I can not see anything changing for our team before he becomes a free agent and this Schwarber business a perfect example. As for Green getting traded your guess is as good as mine.
Like I said. Meyers is just the kind of trade Krall would make. Just like that Hays trade. SMH That would REALLY help us win. SMH Just what we need. We don’t really need offense do we? lol
We don’t need any more 2nd tier ballplayers from other clubs. Would have been nice to see the Reds roll the dice and go all in to win. Sigh
I’d rather roll with our young guys than some retread
“I’d rather roll with our young guys than some retread”
Yes
I told someone on here that I would give them $1000 if the Reds signed Schwarber. That’s how sure I was that Bob wasnt ponying up that cash. The Reds will find someone like Meyers who is cheap and add him to the team. Probably trade Lux for him and make out money wise. I think Meyers is cheaper. Flea Market Bob.
It’s like when they had interest in Ohtani
Revenue disparity strikes again. This is what the larger market teams do: they keep adding until they muscle the smaller market teams out of contention. This is another very predictable outcome from the mess of a CBA that MLB plays under.
That said, other than the timing of the rumors, I’m not sure that the Schwarber negotiations have anything to do with Jake Meyer’s trade rumors. Meyers doesn’t address the Reds’ primary need, but he probably does make the Reds slightly better, especially if the Reds were able to shed Lux’s contract in the process. I’m just not sure how many more bottom-of-the-order bats the Reds can grab and remain serious contenders.
On paper Lux is now their DH for 2026
Obviously, Lux is not the type of player we want in that spot.
Phil’s defense attorney is always here lol.. Now Philly is a big market juggernaut lol.
I’d take this more seriously if the Cubs and Red Sox owners weren’t also playing it cheap. There are too many chump owners in MLB. Owners like Nutting, Castellini, and Dolan should be forced to sell or have their team contracted. Same with Rockies and Marlins. Chump owners, irrelevant teams. Red Sox and Cubs fans should revolt, given how much their teams make off of them and how little they try.
I’m not defending anyone, just pointing out this was a predictable outcome. But reality is reality. You note that many MLB ownership groups underspend compared to other franchises. Why is MLB the only league where this occurs? And yes, the Phillies are among the top third of MLB franchises in terms of revenue.
Titos Burner: And all this is not even the saddest part. This scenario has been going on for a long time and yet fans continue to support such teams/ownerships. I mean I love the game, IMO it’s the greatest game in the world but that only gets me so far when year after year, decade after decade Reds chances since 1991 with the exception of I think 3-4 times of getting into the playoffs are slim or none.
Philadelphia is generally considered to be either the 4th or 5th largest market in the US, behind New York, LA, and Chicago, and similar in size to Dallas.
The Phillies had the 4th-highest payroll in MLB in 2025, behind the Mets, Dodgers, and Yankees.
If you don’t believe Philly is a “big market juggernaut”, then I don’t know what to tell you.
Time for organizations to start losing “value” if they dont spend money instead of just coasting and spending the minimum ammount every year…owners like the castelini’s need to be forced to sell
Great post, BK. This is just the way MLB is right now. If a large-market team wants a player bad enough, they will get him. No matter how much the Reds offer, if Philly wants him too, they will ALWAYS be able to outbid Cincy.
Not much the Reds can do about that until baseball gets some kind of salary structure like the other major professional leagues.
I am not saying that Jake Meyers is the equivalent of Kyle Schwarber in terms of hitting. But if he is good in CF and o.k. with the bat, it moves Friedl to LF which does fill one of their holes and maybe improves the OF. Adding a DH is probably much easier. Just plug in one of their failed MiL prospects like Hinds or CES.
He signed for that amount that was predicted. Guess the Reds were never serious if they weren’t going to pay that price.
Whether it was not matching the annual salary or number of years or whatever, you are correct, this was never for one second a serious possibility (let alone effort). It ended as it most frequently does, as nothing more than a false hope or a charade.
The Reds’ policy of not expanding payroll beyond whatever limitations they devise is not even really a policy, because all policy allows discretion. It’s really just a behavior, whether you call it frugal or greed or risk averse or any of the less flattering labels. It’s much more of a character flaw than ‘sound business practice.’
And that is what just plain sucks about the Cincinnati Reds. The club chooses not to be more successful. It chooses mediocrity.
What gets me is the Reds usually keep moves close to the vest. 95% of the time Reds trades or signings are not known until they happen.
But this one they let get out, and then they talked about it publicly too. But they were never serious. So it’s Lucy, Charlie Brown, and the football. The fans are Charlie Brown, again.
This is the third huge PR blunder by Krall in the last 2-3 months. First, Krall fails to squash the ‘Reds are trading Greene’ issue, then the EDLC quad strain that was then wasn’t a tear fiasco, and now he let the Schwarber nonsense unravel. Krall has some competencies but public relations is about as far away from one as it gets. He’s slightly better than his first trials by fire, but slightly better than inept is still coming up short. Imagine if he were in Boston or NYC. He’d last a day.
Any article with Castellinis face on it is always unwelcome news. Sell the Team Bob.
Once the off season is over and we see how little the Reds spend, we will see just how far off Bob Castellini was from this rumored pursuit of Kyle Schwarber. The skeptic in me wonders if the Reds didn’t float this rumor out there just a way of appeasing the fan base so they can at least say “we tried”.
Check back in about an hour and see how appeased the fanbase is.
It won’t take an hour. hahaha I’m sure everyone is just tickled to death.
!!!
Would love for one of the crack beat writers to do some actual digging and see where we were in terms of an offer.
wizeman: I think the beat writers know exactly what’s going on with the Reds ownership/front office and the reason they are still beat writers is they don’t ask deep dive questions. Or if they do every once in a while they will note the generic answer and collect their paychecks. None of this is unexpected or rocket science. Castellini promised his fellow investors (the ownership group) that he wouldn’t ask them for additional cash infusions, a policy that lasted 18 years, notes Reds Content Plus. They hired a GM who would not complain, stay in line with the company policies to tie the whole thing up with a bow. Just like Reds Content Plus I have noted all this as well.
I wish a reporter would simply ask
“if the current ownership group is unwilling to spend what it takes to win and they are only breaking even, why not sell the team to an owner who will spend?”
This ownership lied to the fanbase when they bought the team. If that wasnt clear before, it should be now.
Yup. That’s the absolute truth.
I guess Bob couldn’t scrape up enough pennies in his many couches.
If this team was serious about contending within the window that they still have Elly and some stellar pitching, they would have found a way. Local player, bringing back a franchise, seats, merch, etc. The story wrote itself but not meant to be. Unfortunately not at all surprising.
Same as it ever was in Cincinnati with the Reds.
I suspect if they had signed Schwarber, they would start trading ARB- eligible players to help pay for it. So now I seriously doubt they chase a different free agent with the same $$. They saw this as a unique opportunity worth pursuing, but won’t look at other free agents the same way.
Yeah, it’s not like we are going to pivot to Kyle Tucker now that Schwarber re-signed with the Phillies. At this point, our opening day left fielder might be Hector Rodriguez.
Exactly, it’s not like we are going to pivot and now try to sign Kyle Tucker. At this point our opening day left fielder might be Hector Rodriguez.
PTBNL, your comment is awaiting. Heh.
For what it’s worth The Duke (and Doug), my stuff here has been glitching just a little bit, ie long pauses for comments to post.
“At this point, our opening day left fielder might be Hector Rodriguez.”
That wouldn’t be the worst thing. It would be better than settling for another Austin Hays. I still say give Hinds every chance until you find a much better proven player. Save your money for really good players.
Yeah, that’s why I reposted. It was like 3 minutes later and still nothing so I thought it just glitched out.
It was worth saying twice. 🙂
You can say that again.
Andy: I would make a strong guess that even if the Reds had offered the same amount as the Phillies did, the Phillies would not have to gut their team to make the dollars add up. At least with the Phillies he has a real chance to get to the WS.
Apparently the Pirates offered the same $30M per year, but over 4 years ($120/4yr)
I wonder if the Reds were even below the lowly Pirates with their offer?
This is what it sounds like. And who knows, Schwarber might have given the Reds a hometown discount if they matched it, but I guess we’ll never know…
Yep
Don’t think they even made an offer.
One report said the Reds offered 5/$120mm, which was clearly too low.
Management blunder.
I don’t see them making any major move.
You were so sure the Reds were going to get Schwarber. I like your comments and you always post something that is good but I knew you were wrong on that one.
Pretends to be shocked. Classic Castellini Reds.
As I said on the other thread, this is just Krall’s annual con game. They had no intention of seriously bidding for Schwarber. Krall is the Castellini’s tool and they all profit while the fanbase suffers through yet another futile season, wasting the best talent the Reds have had in a while. The entire front office should be fired and the ownership group forced to divest themselves of the team. They aren’t serious about being competitive. I was hoping to be wrong, but yet once again Krall lived down to my expectations.
Nailed it LDS. This exactly what it is. Same old sorry each off-season. They aren’t serious about putting out a true contender.
Same old story but sorry is a good descriptive of this organization.
I meant to say same old story but sorry is a good descriptive of this organization.
Yeah but it’s just as amazing how many people fall for it every year. I myself stopped after last winters joke. The Reds are in on a player the same way people are at flea markets. Will you take a nickel? Bob looks for bargains. Flea Market Bob.
“Will you take a nickel?”
Will you take a wooden nickel? lol
This Ownership Group is essentially the poorest in MLB we are the equivalent of Mexicans selling oranges in traffic at the border…or the homeless man cleaning your window at a red light begging for “handouts”….Sell the Team Bob
It’s quite possible Krall is doing exactly what he said he wanted to do in avoiding peaks and valleys. He’s building an 82/83 win team and hope it squeaks into the post season.
I could go for some peaks right about now.
“I could go for some peaks right about now.
Evidently peaks aren’t part of the plan.
As pathetic a strategy as that seems, the .500 ballclub with a little luck seems to be exactly what they wanted. Well, the Reds got Elly, and 1st rank starting pitching but the rest of the roster more than negates that. The Bengals got Burrow, Chase and Higgins but near nothing on the other side of the ball. Seems like the Cincinnati overlords all think the same over the last 30 years.
Did they really think Schwarber would take a 25 mil haircut to play for this team, thus indirectly “cheating” many other players. Just like a house, you get top dollar or you pull it off the market.
Krall is not a tool, he is an employee of Castellini. Following orders does not make one a tool.
Either way what difference does it make. One big signing won’t make the team even with the Dodgers.
The Dodgers are adding like $50 million in payroll to the already highest payroll in the league. Bring on the lockout.
Actually it does, @Little Earl. If one is a high level manager and the organization for which one works, does not provide the necessary resources for you to be successful, then staying is either unethical or incompetent. Krall’s obligation is to the Reds organization not to the Reds’ ownership group. Either way his performance is inexcusable. He fails at Business Ethics 101.
Good post, Earl.
Krall works for the Reds. Castellini (and a few others) owns the Reds. Therefore, Krall works for Castellini and the other owners.
And no, LDS, staying with the Reds does not make him unethical. The ethical thing to do, is to do his job to the best of his ability, under the working conditions imposed by his boss. If that means he has to operate under payroll restrictions, then that’s what the job entails.
“I choose biz-ness eth-ics”
Wise words from one William “Billy” Madison.
It’s very possible that Krall was told when he was hired about the spending restrictions that he’d have to work with.
@Melvin, then he shouldn’t have accepted the job. No @Docmike, it is not is not the ethical thing to do . Again, Krall’s duty is to the business entity not the owners. The two are not the same. The Reds have been around far longer than this ownership group
“@Melvin, then he shouldn’t have accepted the job.”
Yeah. I’m just saying he let the cat out of the bag and told us exactly what he was planning to do.
The ownership being cheap and Krall being poor at his job are two different issues in my book. Again, just look at the Brewers.
Come on, LDS, that’s nonsense. Any “high-level manager” (or any other employee for that matter) will have his success or failure judged by his bosses, not by some external standard, and certainly not by the public. The fact that he still has his job means that he’s doing the job that his bosses want him to do, just like I do now, and just like I assume you did once upon a time. His job is not to please us, it’s to please his bosses, and apparently he’s doing that. That doesn’t make him unethical, it just makes him a guy that’s meeting his bosses’ expectations.
Even if Krall did what you suggest and walked away, somebody else would take that job and be held to the same expectations. No number of principled exits is going to change the basic fact that your goals and the owners’ goals are different — and the owners will win that argument every single time. I can’t imagine who you see as the “Reds organization” if it’s not the people paying the bills. I know you don’t like it, but it’s not us, and it never has been.
LDS: for Christmas, I hope you get a new “K” key for your keyboard. You’re wearing that thing out.
Perhaps Richard, perhaps. Right after you figure out the qualitative difference between Bell and Francona.
My initial reaction was, “The Phillies overpaid,” but it disheartened me to read that the Reds apparently didn’t even match the Pirates’ offer. The *Pirates*. If our front office is cheaper than the Pirates’, something is terribly wrong.
” but it disheartened me to read that the Reds apparently didn’t even match the Pirates’ offer.”
We couldn’t. We took their chronic bad back poor hitting $30 million dollar third baseman off their hands. 😀
I can’t wait until Portland gets an MLB team so I can finally leave this unhealthy relationship I have with the Reds.
Some sources (twitter, blue sky) said the Reds offered 4 years and 100 Million–25 Million per year. His new Phillies contract contains an additional year and 5 million more each season.
Charlie goldsmith doesnt give numbers but says the Reds made an offer and felt Schwarber’s camp was interested and Reds were prepared to be creative in ways they havent in prior FA years, but Phillies let Reds camp know this morning they were out and went with 5/150.
Aside from him saying the Reds made an offer the rest of that is useless information without giving the details of their offer. That they felt Schwarber’s side was interested doesn’t tell us anything. I felt I had a chance to date a lot of people in my early 20’s. Turns out I was wrong. BUT I FELT IT.
I read 100m offered by the Pirates, but not the Reds. Ken Rosenthal reported it in the Athletic.
Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic says the Pirates offered 4/120, the Reds offered 5 years in the $125 million range with “room to grow” and the Phillies and Orioles both offered 5/150.
Well that stinks. I was thinking the Reds might win out if they offered more years than Philly, but really 5 is probably the max you can justify.
You got to hand it to these big market teams, they at least spend the money they make, I don’t think you can say the same for us. We’ll likely have a $115M – $120M payroll, and not the $150 – $160 that we should.
I hate that we didn’t sign Schwarber, but they have taken hits from their RSN contract (likely in the $15M/year range). Next season, the replacement deal from the ESPN contract came back lower. Some of the reporting makes it look like MLB earned the same money in their new contract, but the new contract included MLB TV rights that weren’t part of the prior contract. Keep in mind, several of the larger market teams either own their RSN or have kept their contracts in place. Bottom line: the gap is widening, and there are some known reasons that the Reds’ payroll is stagnating. In most cases, franchises appear to be operating on a break-even basis, but when you can do that with a couple hundred million dollar advantage, you get to dominate the free agent market.
Truthfully, I don’t think a 150 million 5 year deal with a over 30 year old player is probably not a wise plan. I think a 4 year deal at the same annum would be OK. I remember so many people complaining about Votto’s contract at the the end of his career. Still yet to hear they are interested in Jake Meyers is an awful let down.
Except the last year or two of that deal we’d be in full rebuild mode anyway and could trade away payroll for peanuts. I would much rather go with competitive windows followed by fire sales and rebuilds than try to just “maintain competitiveness” but never truly competing for a championship.
Same. I don’t see a path to sustained success under the current economic model that governs MLB.
Exactly. The Reds reject the concept of ‘win now,’ even if it is a modest effort, which is the one thing that winning organizations do and mediocre organizations don’t.
If Kyle Schwarber would have helped bring us a couple 90 win seasons and a genuine chance in the playoffs, not the joke this year was, that somehow doesn’t outweigh a short period of tearing it down — are the Reds drafting and very good progress with international signings just going to disappear and leave us talentless?
No. Investing in Schwarber as a ‘generational move’ to match a few ‘generational talents’ like Greene, Elly snd Burns does not assume divesting from what brought us to the table. Yet, the Reds just fail over and over again to meet the moment.
The fan base, with these semi manufactured (and false) hopes around Schwarber should be livid.
Something about using the failed concept of getting a great player fueling outrage later, right?
I suspect the Reds topped out at 3/33 – not wanting to go beyond 3 years for a 33 yr. old, and not wanting to top 33M with next year’s CBA looming. Maybe they would have matched the Pirates in $$, but does anyone think they’d go beyond a 3 year deal in this case?
I wonder if current ownership considers the Votto and Bailey deals as the bookends of how far/much they’re willing to offer?
They get a teensy benefit of the doubt as the likely 3rd or 4th best offer, but certainly didn’t get close enough to matter.
If the Votto and Bailey deals were bookends or benchmarks, we may well be 10-15 years behind the industry.
And the Reds now turn their attention to Pete Alonso. Just kidding of course.
The Reds have a surplus of young,talented arms that could get a top hitting prospect that would be under team control for the next 4 years, the window that Elly and Hunter are in. For a team unwilling, not necessarily unable, to pay for a proven bat that has to be the move.
Do you think ownership has ever asked the question, “Why haven’t we won a World Series since 1990?” Seriously, do you think that question has ever been asked?
If that question is/was ever asked, you would start to build upon that.
How about this? The owners all agree to privately deliver their financial statements into an AI system that, in turn, determines an optimal investment into the roster. Ownership could then present to the Reds community. The community could then (perhaps) understand what we are dealing with here.
If there is a shortfall, then the ownership adds additional owners. That results in additional capital.
A smart person could calculate how much revenue a championship generates for a city. We all know its massive. Thus current and/or new owners will see it as an investment in the championship of a city.
They should weed out anyone that insists on making double digit returns each year. Go run any other business. This is about sacrifice – because you can. You recoup your return when we win it.
I know this is a pipedream and nothing more than a rant about ownership.
ELDC can become a free agent after the 2029 season. Thus, CIN ownership will kick the tires on trading him as early as 2028. Thus we have 2 years before the next rebuild.
Thus was 2026 and 2027 are the years to go for it – not for pinching pennies.
Good rant Michael
“Thus was 2026 and 2027 are the years to go for it – not for pinching pennies.”
And there might not even be baseball played in 2027
I miss Marge Scott…The castellini’s and (other owners) need to sell to sell to owners that want to win and spend some money…
Speaking of spending money, how about those Mets?
She did at least spend money on the ML club. I believe there was a few years in the 90s when the Reds had one of the highest payrolls in the majors.
Not until I can review the audited financial statements of the Reds will I believe they are poor.
Sell the controlling ownership position Bob. After 20 years of mediocrity it is evident YOU are incapable of building a championship team.
Reds fans will endure once again an offseason of front office and ownership obfuscation, bottom dwelling free agent signings and inconsequential trades. The “Castellini” method.
Thank you, doofus.
Do you remember shortly after Castellini bought the Reds and held a press conference and declared “The Losing Stops Now”?
What a joke he has become. Should’ve stuck with vegetables.
I think that is the one thing that really sticks in my craw, after all these years. Castellini’s chest thumping proclamation about how he was going to bring back “winning” baseball to Cincinnati.
Well, 2010 and 2012 were pretty good years, but actually somebody else did most of the heavy lifting to make those teams good, ie, most of the key players were already in the organization.
Since then? Pretty lousy report card for the ownership.
I have no idea what actually goes on in ownership meetings, but the results speak for themselves. This is not a well run organization. There is no consistent management direction in what the Reds do, except draft pitchers with their #1 draft choice. I am too old to adopt another team, been following the Reds most of my life, but I have no expectations that they will actually be competitive again. They may again squeak into the playoffs as a Wild Card, and be immediately eliminated.
Baseball is now structured against small market teams. And the Castellini management method (is there one?) does nothing to even attempt to optimize their situation with their limited resources.
I think the odds are higher that they trade Stephenson this off season than signing a decent OF’er. At least, I wouldn’t be surprised.
They will start trading Stephenson, Greene and Elly over the next few years. What’s the point of a rebuild if you never intend to take the steps to put the team over the top?
Just sell the team, move the team or whatever. I don’t believe for one second the Reds just try to break even every year. Maybe payroll is tied to attendance, but I will never believe that includes TV money and revenue sharing let alone merchandise.
I was planning my first trip to Goodyear this Spring, but I now I will just take my wife to some beach instead.
Every single trade deadline and off season the Reds front office falls short. Maybe Nick Krall can stir up those Luis Robert Jr. rumors again.
Can it be called a rebuild if we were never built up? Lets just call it what it is a money grab.
Krall’s decision to give Jeimer Candelario $45 million dollars didn’t help, but I doubt the Reds were ever serious about signing Schwarber. I also think Schwarber comments about wanting to play for his hometown team was just a way of getting a 5th year out of the Phillies.
No. A lot of people here were deluding themselves that the Reds would sign Schwarber. It was never going to happen. I hate to be “I told you so!”, because I would have liked to see Schwarber in the middle of the lineup. But it was never going to happen. TOO MUCH MONEY. Period.
Ok. Since, things will not and cannot change. Just sign:
Tim Mayza for $800k
Gary Sanchez to be DH at $4M
Dylan Carlson for $1M to play CF
Then just issue some same press release as the last 2 years.
Well reports are that AJ Preller is trying to outdo his Juan Soto trade. I honestly would package up Hunter Greene for Jackson Merrill.
I don’t see it with the Padres. They have some bad contracts; they will collectively owe Tatis, Bogaerts and Machado $85 to $96 million/year beginning next year and continuing through 2033 ($66 million this year), so they have close to $700 million on the books. They have some less bad contracts for Darvish and Joe Musgrave, totalling $69 million over the next 2 years. The 3 hitters noted above are all RH-hitters, and their only major LH hitters other than Merrill are Cronenworth and Reds-killer Gavin Sheets.
Merrill only makes a $1mm this year, but is signed through 2034 for $124mm more, or $15.5 AAV. They have to keep Merrill’s contract. They need to find somewhere to palm off a contract of at least 1 of their big 3 RH hitters. Good luck with that. Maybe the Yankees or Mets will bite on Machado or Tatis, but the Padres won’t get much back.
Also, Francona said yesterday that the Greene trade story was nonsense.
The only way for things to change is to not go to the ballpark. Seriously. Sorry to the players that are there, but the only way ownership will ever do anything is if it impacts their bottom line. A message needs to be sent.
I’ve been to two games the past two years and both of those were free tickets. In that same span of time i’ve been to about a dozen Dayton Dragons games and had way more fun there.
Ok, not that we are back to living in the real world, can we please offer some pitching to Boston for Duran….
I asked this is another spread but why is Duran so appealing? Granted he had a very good year in 2024, but if we got the 2025 version I am not sure he would be that much upgrade. OK maybe an upgrade but I just don’t see him moving the needle all that much especially if we would have to include Hunter Greene in the deal. May be a moot point anyway because apparently the Dodgers want him. Who the Dodgers want,
the Dodgers get.
I wouldn’t even offer Hunter Greene in a deal for Duran, it’s a non-starter. I would be willing to do something like Lowder/Arroyo/Petty. If that wouldn’t get it done, then move on.
If they want Hunter Greene, then Roman Anthony is coming back, and I don’t think they want to do that.
I agree the Duran fascination is mind boggling. SMH.
153 extra base hits over the last two years not enough for you? (Schwarber had 141)
Yeah that’s a definitely not going to happen. The Red’s front office does everything but spend money or make good trades
Good post. Very true. I couldn’t see Schwarber wanting to leave the Phillies anyway, a definite World Series contender. It was just a matter of time until they made a serious offer. The Reds really needed Tito to make a momentous sales pitch to compete this wannabe Christmas Miracle, I wonder if that happened.
Phillies are never getting by the Dodgers.
Anyone surprised by this? Didn’t think so.
This story has been updated to reflect the offer made by the Cincinnati Reds.
For me the true test is ahead. If the Reds offered Schwarber $100m over four seasons, will they go the same amount additional over the same term for another guy or a combination of guys, be they via free agents or trade returns?
Ken Rosenthal’s article notes that the Reds were only willing to go there for Schwarber because they felt it would bring in more fans and they aren’t expected to look at other “expensive free agents”.
I am going to be writing about that…. because I gotta be honest, it’s infuriating to read on multiple levels.
” because I gotta be honest, it’s infuriating to read on multiple levels.”
You’re definitely not alone.
I’ve been limiting my exposure to sports media until I’m sure my blood pressure is safely back to normal following certain events in Indy on Saturday night. 😉
That I was reading the Schwarber stuff must mean I never took the Reds seriously. But if the reports they offered $100m over 4 years are accurate and then they don’t spend the money elsewhere, count me infuriated too. And if it emerges that the whole thing was a hoax because they knew their “offer” would come up short, that is even worse.
5/125 was the offer. But apparently included some ways to make more.
“And if it emerges that the whole thing was a hoax because they knew their “offer” would come up short, that is even worse.”
I’d say that’s most likely.
Jim I think you know the answer to that.
Everyone deserves their fair day “in court” before suffering the consequences of being guilty 😉
So, maybe we’re left with a Jeimer deal to some lucky new Jeimer who gets paid vacations to everywhere under the sun for 2 consecutive years in 2028 and 29.
I don’t think we were ever even close to signing him, every Red’s fan knows that we would never sign a player who would help the team win games instead we’re going to spend money on players who are cheap and don’t actually help the team win games.
Don’t know why this should be a surprise at all. Schwarber is most definitely a “mostly-positionless bat”. Specifically, when was the last time he shagged flies in LF? Has he EVER taken grounders at 2B or 3B? Bullet DODGED. Thank you Krall and Katuska!
I suspect he wasn’t too involved on the Schwarber front, but I give Katuska a lot of credit for his unwavering focus on defensive talent and positional versatility. If not for Katuska and his often-stated draft strategy, Reds fans could be looking at 15 years of mostly positionless Nick Kurtz at the rump-end of the defensive spectrum.
56 HR bullet dodged. It’s called DH, my friend
If the Update is accurate, that seems like an admirable offer by the Reds. I know in the long run, it’s $25M but by turning that down, I think it’s safe to assume he was not all that interested in giving the Reds a “hometown discount”. I do respect him for not letting it drag out, tho. The Reds can move on while at the Winter Meetings.
The only hometown discount likely would have been letting the Reds match Phillies offer and NOT have to beat it. Best we ever going to get as far as any discount was concerned.
Let’s hope for a strike next winter in hopes that the result will be more balanced payrolls across the league. The Reds will never have nice things as long as this continues. Elly’s gone by the end of 2029, likely sooner in a trade. The Reds couldn’t afford to sign Castillo long term. They let their ace Cueto go. Outside of Votto, there’s no hope of keeping homegrown talent or attracting it via free agency. The best the Reds can do under Krall is hope to sneak into the postseason via a wildcard spot (after another team’s historic collapse). If the Reds fail to acquire an impact bat this winter, they might as well tear it all down and start over and hope the next group of prospects and draft choices has a higher ceiling than this current .500 caliber roster. Seems strange that the Reds haven’t been linked to Ketel Marte yet…
doofus unofficial wish list in no particular order.
Corbin Carroll, Jackson Merrill, Tyler Soderstrom, Nick Kurtz, Wyatt Langford, Riley Greene, Roman Anthony, Sal Frelick, Max Clark, Kevin McGonigle, Dalton Rushing, Adley Rutschman, Walker Jenkins, Colton Cowser, Dylan Beavers, Carson Benge, Dylan Crews, Robert Hassell III, Wilyer Abreu, Josue DePaula, Enrique Bradfield Jr.
Abreu may be available. The others probably are not, as you must be aware.
Other teams have Elly De La Cruz on their list. He is the same level as available as almost all of your list.
To me this means Schwarber places money ahead of playing with his hometown team. Greedy athletes. How many millions do they need?
Two trades and two/three FA acquisitions.
FA Acquisition 1: Mike Soroka. He was better than his stats indicate last year. He will come cheap and he can start yet slide to the bullpen if necessary.
FA Acquistion 2: Hunter Harvey. He would be a good fit at the back of the Reds bullpen.
FA Acquisition 3: Sean Newcomb. Under rated LHRP.
Trade 1. Brady Singer, Chase Petty and Carlos Jorge (Cam Collier if necessary) for Brett Baty and Wilyer Abreu. Assuming the Mets get Singer, a prospect goes from the Mets to the Red Sox.
Trade 2. Spencer Steer and Noelvi Marte to Seattle for Matt Brash and Kade Anderson. (Backup plan is Marte for Brash and a prospect not as good as Anderson).
SP is solid: Greene/Lodolo/Burns/Abbott/Soroka. Soroka slides to the bullpen in the post-season or possibly in August.
RP is very solid: Brash/Pagan/Harvey/Newcomb/Santillan/Ashcraft/Phillips
Offense is good too: C/Stephenson, 1B/Stewart, 2B/Baty, 3B/Hayes, SS/EDLC, LF/Friedl, CF/McLain, RF/Abreu
For Abreu alone, that package would be light. Abreu is 3+ bWAR that last 2 years with 4 years of control. Substitute Nick Lodolo and his 2 years of control for Singer, and it might work for Abreu.
Soroka signed with the D-Backs
Soroka signed with the D-backs yesterday.
I don’t see the Reds trading Marte, either.
This is disheartening but not surprising. Do we even think they actually have a plan, or are they just gonna shop at the flea market over the next 2 months? Do we think they have a solid trade in place or will it be the train wreck that was the Gavin Lux trade. ( not that they would have drafted anyone worth a flip with that comp pick that they traded) but at some point my competitive nature needs to match the team I root for. This goes for the front office as well. I think I am less disappointed in the fact that we did not get KS, and more disappointed that I feel like we will not do anything for this team to take the next step.
Right now the Reds are the same they were last year minus Martinez, Barlow, Littell, Hayes and Andujar. It’s questionable they can even make up for the lost production from those guys, let alone improve on 83 wins. The Jake Myers rumors are making me nauseous.
Kind of like the Hayes rumors were before we traded for him? lol
agree v4L… isnt he just TJ with less power?
I’m actually encouraged to see that the Reds made a competitive offer for Schwarber. 5 years at $25 million per year is nothing to sneeze at. But like I said earlier, if the Phillies want him, they will always be able to outbid teams like the Reds (or Pirates). That’s just the way MLB’s salary structure is.
I know the rumors were out there that he really wanted to come to Cincinnati, but I was always skeptical. In the end, almost every player takes the offer that gives the most money.
To be clear, I’m not blaming Schwarber for going for the most money he can. That is his right, and I’m sure most of us would likely do the same if we were in his position.
In the end, both Cincy and Philly offered a 5 year contract, but $150 million wins out over $125 million. Big shocker.
All true, but Cincy was willing to come up a little, and it sounds like they didn’t care. Plus, the difference in taxes alone makes the salary a little closer than it seems.
Actually, I think I’m wrong. Taxes in Philly will be cheaper for Schwarber than in Ohio.
Taxes matter so much less. They get taxed in every city/state in which they play. It’s not nothing, but it’s not a big deal, either.
“Actually, I think I’m wrong. Taxes in Philly will be cheaper for Schwarber than in Ohio.”
If that’s the case he should sing with Miami or Tampa where there are no state taxes and they’re working on getting rid of property taxes. 🙂
While that is true I’m just kidding. Those two teams aren’t going to sign him.
Doug, taxes do matter a lot. Yes, they are taxed by states based on how often they are there, but states have lots of different rules, based on how much time they actually live in a state. CA, Toronto, NJ, and NY, is a HUGE difference in taxes for these players if they live and play in one of those states, vs most other states and cities. Playing in CA 10 or 15 times is pennies compared to being on a home team in that state. To your point though, not much mattered between Philly and Cincy.
Pennsylvania income tax is a flat 3.07%. Philadelphia income tax is 1%. I do not know what Ohio/Cincinnati tax rates are.
I do not know for sure if every locale they play in taxes the player’s for playing in their city/state.
So the Reds were defeated again by the Phillies pursuing a good FA …I’m tired of it although I’m not shocked either…
Amazing how many people bought into the Reds might get Schwarber. I said before free agency that a lot of are going to be really disappointed. Schwarber using the old tactics of “really would like to go to the Reds” sell to get the Phillies to come to the table and pay up.
I keep seeing two different arguments:
1) The Reds are cheap. The payroll is too low, and ownership refuses to make the financial commitment to improve the roster. They will never be good until Bob sells the team.
2) MLB’s system is broken. The Reds (and other teams) cannot compete on a yearly basis with teams that can simply outspend everyone. Until there is a salary cap/floor, the Reds will always lose out to the big spenders.
The thing is, both arguments are right. You can agree with the notion that Reds’ ownership is being cheap, while at the same time acknowledge that something has to change with MLB’s salary structure.
All true, but the Reds weren’t being cheap this time. Schwarber’s agent must have played the rest of the league, getting Cincy to up it’s offer, forcing the Phillies to up theirs.
The Orioles offered the same as the Phillies, so the Reds weren’t a factor.
My (previously posted) info was apparently wrong. According to The Athletic (paywall) the amount was 5 years $125 Million. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6876322/2025/12/09/kyle-schwarber-orioles-phillies-mlb-free-agency/?
“The Cincinnati Reds also offered Schwarber five years, but their proposal was in the $125 million range, with room to grow. The Pittsburgh Pirates were at four years and $120 million. The amounts of any other offers Schwarber received are not known.”
Thinking back earlier this week about some of the miracles Jim Bowden pulled off during his ten year stint with the Reds. Deion Sanders (twice), Ron Gant, Denny Neagle, Greg Vaughn, Ken Griffey Jr., Dante Bichette (at the time it seemed positive). Then there were the deadline deals for David Wells, Mark Portugal, Dave Burba, Juan Guzman to name a few. Different time, Different era.
Different owner
Well, it’s easy to bash the Reds when it comes to money, but NOT THIS TIME. I’m thankful they didn’t pay a 34 year old $150 Mil through his 39th year of age. That would have killed the Reds. Dunn put up somewhat similar numbers and he fell off overnight. Kudos to the Reds for offering 5/$125 mil, which was probably too much too. Schwarber wasn’t that concerned about playing at home, because the huge taxes he’ll pay off that income in Pennsylvania is much more than what he’d pay in Cincy, plus the Reds were apparently willing to boost their offer a bit if needed. Good riddance Schwarber. GO GET Kyle Tucker who is a complete player.
I too am glad that they didn’t offer $150 million to pay a 34-year-old to play through his age 39 year.
However, we are talking about Schwarber, who turns 33 in March and will be done with his Phillies contract after his age 37 season.
Pennsylvania state/local income taxes do not amount to $5 million more than Ohio’s on an income of $30mm/year. Plus, SALT is calculated on where the game was played. He’d play more games in NYC and Massachusetts by being a Phillie, but he also would be guaranteed 3 more games/year by playing in no-tax Florida.
He’s still 32 now, it would have been through his age 37 season.
Pretty much every analyst had Schwarber around 5/150.
It’s not that they didn’t sign him. It’s that they leaked their pursuit, then talked about it publicly, but didn’t even get close to the number that everyone knew it was going to take.
Why not just keep it internal and save face if you’re hoping he accepts something well below market value? We finished behind the Pirates in the Schwarber stakes. It’s a bad look.
That was a great and fair offer from the Reds. But it also protected against downside risk, of which there’s a ton with Schwarber.
The willingness of the Reds to add $25m to the 2026 budget is probably best news. We can do a lot of damage with that $25m on other talent.
I have a hunch the Reds dodged a bullet here.
It wasn’t a fair offer, though. At least two teams were willing to spend 20% more.
How does that not make it fair? Of course it was a fair offer. In fact it appears to have been the 3rd best offer to him by any team in baseball. Two other teams made terrible offers that will almost assuredly hurt them in the long run, well it would have hurt the Orioles; maybe not the Phillies. I want the team to spend money too, but not foolishly. Moose came off a huge season too, and we got burned. Spend big money on Tucker or even Alonso.
Let’s suppose we both go to the car dealership every year with the goal of buying the one special car they receive in December. We both do our research and know the sticker price of car and come prepared to pay the price. However, every year when I make an offer you offer the dealer an extra $5K the first year, $10 K the next year, and maybe $20K the third year. Every year, I leave frustrated, even in the years I come prepared to go over sticker price. Why? Because in this scenario, you make three times what I do leaving you with enough extra disposable income, that I always end up leaving the car lot with a more economical car.
Free agent prices reflect a market where teams don’t compete on an even playing field. For a sport, that’s an enormous problem as it just sucks the joy out of multiple teams fanbases.
Doug, just because other teams were willing to pay more doesn’t make the Reds’ offer “unfair”.
In the end, it’s all subjective. But my opinion is that $25 million per year for 5 years is absolutely a “fair” offer. It just wasn’t the best offer.
Great post again, BK.
If people can’t see that the different teams in MLB are nowhere near operating on a level playing field, they’re just intentionally turning a blind eye.
I’m not a billionaire BUT IF I WERE and I could afford 5/125 then I could also afford 5/150.
Yeah. It doesn’t make sense at all.
Castellini’s net worth is $400 million. That’s barely more than the Dodgers annual payroll and may in fact be less than their 2026 payroll considering they just added a $23 million closer and may trade for Tarik Skubal as well.
Reds will pivot to Nick O’Hearn. As long as that coincides with a trade for Jarren Duran we’re in business.
But alas, it won’t.
Ryan O’Hearn LOL. Nick is a golfer and he wouldn’t play very well at 1B. But maybe Nick is available for cheaper?
Nick Martini is a FA too.
Just an FYI to the front office if they happen to monitor this site.
I am a 50 year Reds fan who started with the BRM when I was 10. At 60 years old I have put all Sports into proper perspective given the importance of life. The one exception has been the Reds. I held tightly to my love for the team and the game.
But….
I found in 2025 my mind wandered. I didn’t follow every game. Many times I just read the box score the next day.
In off-seasons past I would be on Doug’s sites 6 or 8 times a day. Now it’s just a couple of times a week. That’s not fair to him.
Now this again this year. No effort to build a team that can win. I know it’s not my money, and $25m is a lot of money. But come on this is a major league baseball team. Coming up from 5 125 to 5 150 for the right guy can be done. They refuse to do it.
I just how it goes. I’ll not be a Dodger fan. I’ll just slip away quietly. One of many I think.
I’ll still stop in a couple of times a week.
To the surprise of absolutely no one.
The Reds are like Lucy, always dangling the football of promising to sign some big-name free agent every winter.
How many times are we Charlie Browns going to end up flat on our backs and killing ourselves?
Oh, and SELL THE TEAM, BOB.
Part of the problem is that in addition to the large market teams outspending everyone, there is simply a lack of impact talent in baseball today. Outside of Schwarber and Alonso, there’s not many big bats available on the FA market. Low supply + high demand = $30 million a year for a DH into his upper thirties.
Schwarber was never coming to the Reds. It’s all about greed. If the Reds truly had $125MM to spend on him, they can spend it in better places and fill several holes.
Trade for Jarren Duran.
Nick Krall just did an interview where he said the remaining amount to spend is $5-10 million, now that Schwarber is gone. They would have been willing to pay $25 million to Schwarber because of the extra tickets he’d sell. But now, that $25 million becomes $5-10 million.
SMH. STTB.
By 2024 numbers, Reds revenue was $325 million and just under 43% went to payroll. It is hard to believe that the Reds shoot to “break even” each season when over $200 million is still left for other expenditures. Other teams spend a way larger percentage of their revenues on payroll. It is clear that Castenelli’s declaration to bring back winning baseball to Cincinnati was just lip service. Then again, where are we gonna go…..
The large market teams have a big financial advantage over the small market teams. The Reds could have offered Schwarber something like five years for $155 million with 90 million or so deferred over several years. They could have possibly afforded to do this. In the end, they just did not want to spend enough to get Schwarber.
A five year contract at $155M with significant defferals is worth less than a five year contract at $150M. Depending on the amount deferred and the length of the deferrals, it could be quite a bit less.
I think the first question that should be answered is what player that would make a difference would want to align themselves with this ownership group to begin with? I mean, any player worth considering likely has other, better options. Sadly, the Reds appear to be the landing spot for reclamation projects and players on the wrong side of their better years.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vottojo01.shtml Joey Votto made $25 M per year from age 34 through 39. He was one really good year, one pretty good one, made one ASG appearance, and got MVP votes one year. He was injured most of those six years.
Sure, Votto was certainly overpaid for the last few years of his contract. But of course, you must also acknowledge that he was VASTLY underpaid for the first few years of that contract, too.
In the end, looking at the contract as a whole, the Reds got every penny of value they spent on Votto and more.
It would seem as if the Reds chose Pagan over Schwarber.
Apparently the Reds were willing to commit $35M to a DH + Reliever.
They just gave their middle-reliever-masquerading-as-a-closer Pagan $10M, leaving $25M for Schwarber.
But, if they had opted for a $5M reliever instead, they would have had the $30M available for Schwarber.
I read Reds offered 5 yr/$125M…and that Schwarber’s agent went back to Phillies and said make it 5yr/$150M and he’s yours right now. Not clear on the chronology of all the offers and counters. Also not clear if Red’s offer was their final best offer. Could or would the Reds have matched it?? Doesn’t sound like they or anyone else was offered a chance to match it. In any event, whether serious or not, they were basically willing to go with a truncated Votto deal (not counting for inflation) which was a wonder back in the day. I don’t think this was chump change for these owners.
The cynicism is defeafening. I get the frustration, but alot of this sounds like kids wanting dad of modest means to buy a big house no matter the price and impact on the budget, and saying if you love me you’d do it, and if you don’t, you don’t love me and I hate you.
There is almost no chance that other teams were not even given a chance to “match the offer”. That’s agent malpractice. You would fire an agent over that about 15 seconds after you learned about it.
Not if you gave the agent the ok. See the mlb article by Todd Zolecki.
While I agree with you, from this article, it looks like Schwarber’s agent had already accomplished his due diligence and gave Schwarber’s preferred team the chance to match his best offer. Given his client’s preference and the availability of a contract at or slightly above market value in MLB’s distorted market this is a quite plausible scenario, especially given the reliability of the source. If any cares to read the article, here’s the link:
https://www.mlb.com/news/kyle-schwarber-phillies-free-agent-contract?adobe_mc=TS%253D1765772754%257CMCMID%253D67288476053637508305814486387880828809%257CMCAID%253D27FAEC8505013E9A-60000100E0442CC9%257CMCORGID%253DA65F776A5245B01B0A490D44%2540AdobeOrg&rsid=mlbios.at.bat.new.implementation&affiliateId=mlbapp-ios_referral
Fans need to realize that Cincinnati is not any free agent’s first choice. “But what about Pagan?” No, stop it. Pagan didn’t have any “contender” offers, and the reds had to overpay to get him to come back. And that’s the long and short of free agency for the Reds. Cincinnati is not a desirable place for those that have choice. They will have to overpay for any talent.
Not if you gave the agent the ok. See the mlb article by Todd Zolecki.
Maybe the last three years of Votto taught the a lesson about giving long term money for a guy wgo will be appoaching 40.
The lesson is you have to give the contract to the guy in his 20s. And, alas, a 5-year deal is arguably not a long-term deal.