The Cincinnati Reds have non-tendered catcher Will Banfield, right-handed pitcher Roddery Munoz, and right-handed pitcher Carson Spiers. The team also reached a new contract with left-handed reliever Sam Moll.
Let’s start with Roddery Munoz. If you are wondering who that is, you probably aren’t alone. He never pitched a game in the Reds organization. Cincinnati picked him up on waivers two weeks ago from the St. Louis Cardinals. Now he’s been non-tendered and is a free agent. It’s tough to figure out what the plan here was. He was not arbitration eligible, so offering him a contract for less than he was projected to make doesn’t seem possible as he’d be getting the league minimum.
The move with Carson Spiers follows up a move where he was designated for assignment. Another move that’s tough to make sense of given that if he cleared waivers he could have been outrighted to Triple-A, and if he didn’t clear waivers then someone else is taking him. This move simply makes him a free agent. Spiers is coming off of elbow surgery and it’s possible he would miss all of 2026, but again – if he clears waivers you can outright him to the minors which severely limits how much money he would be making.
Will Banfield being non-tendered felt like something that everyone saw coming once the team picked up Ben Rortvedt on waivers last week. Banfield was the emergency 3rd catcher on the 40-man roster before that, but with Rortvedt taking over that spot the writing was on the wall for Banfield. He only played in seven games with Cincinnati last season and went 1-10 with six strikeouts. In Triple-A he played in 79 games for Louisville and hit .214/.270/.292.
The deal with Sam Moll saw Jon Heyman of the New York Post first report that the two sides had a deal for $875,000 with another $150,000 worth of unnamed incentives for the 2026 season. It was a tough season for Moll in 2025 as he dealt with a shoulder impingement early in the season and then just struggled to find any consistency with both Triple-A Louisville and in the big leagues with the Reds, posting an ERA of 5.00 with Louisville and 6.38 in MLB during the year. The team is likely hoping to see him rebound and perform more like he did in 2023 (0-73 ERA in 24.2 innings) or 2024 (3.35 ERA in 37.2 innings).
These moves leave the Reds with 38 players on the 40-man roster.
And still Lux and Benson. Still waiting to see Krall do something that actually improves the team.
Krall has a very hard time getting rid of those types of players.
He doesn’t understand the need to cut bait with non value added players while we’re on the cusp. Our window with a good starting staff will close soon.
It may be that he understands that cutting non-value added players necessitates replacing them, and that–given the spending constraints imposed upon him from above–he would probably be replacing them with similar players.
It’s the 21st of November. I think there are several more months before the season starts.
I think Krall does have a hard time letting players go unless they are just terrible aka. Candelario, Moustakas and so on.
Lux is essentially a league average player and does have a good ability to get on base usually. Benson has huge power potential, but his strikeouts are just really bad. Benson also did a pretty nice job covering CF for Friedl when he was injured.
I like the move to resign Moll for less. He was very good before last season, but this way, they owe a little over the league minimum if it doesn’t pan out.
Might they look to trade Lux? The Royals signing India for $8 mil (more than he was projected in arbitration!) might indicate that there’s a scarcity of 2B options on the market.
Moll was a really good reliever in 2023 and 2024. His injury may have led to his poor results in 2025. At the price they got him back for it’s worth a flyer on getting him back to his previous stats.
Absolutely. Especially for a team lacking in lefties.
Totally agree with both of you on Moll. Didn’t have a good year but at that price for a lefty it’s worth the try.
Still think the Reds are at least considering offseason trades of Singer, Stephenson and Lux. Roughly $23M tied up could be used to improve the OF or bullpen or sign a FA like Schwarber. I guess for now, the Reds see Benson as the 4th or 5th OF.
Certainly to all three, though TySteve is least likely to move, unless someone makes a silly offer. Singer has plenty of value, Lux less so.
I’m sure someone would be willing to give up at least an innings eater bullpen type guy for Lux. Maybe a prospect ranking in the 15-20 range of a team’s list. Package them all together for two guys that would help this team maybe a reliever and a solid Outfielder.
@Jay
The 3 of them provide much more value to the Reds than what you want back for them.
I agree, a trade involving any or all of those three remains the best path to clearing payroll space for other acquisitions. Singer plays the position where the Reds have the most depth. Singer is also the most expensive and the most valuable among our players with expiring contracts.
Who catches if you deal Ty Steve? Trevino is 32, not going to catch 140 games and streaky with the stick. The guy the reds replaced banfield with literally can’t hit his weight so then you have two huge holes in the lineup with Hayes being the other one. And this assumes McLain comes back more like 2023, then 2025.
No one is trading Ty Steve? Why do we keep hearing this? Like you asked SR, who in the word is going to catch?
“Who catches if you deal Ty Steve?”
The million dollar question that I haven’t heard and answer for yet.
an answer*
Exactly. I wish the Stephenson trade crap would stop. Decent catchers who can hit some are scarce. Why trade him and let Trevino who hit .173 in the last 3 months is something I dont want to see.
Stephenson turns 30 next summer. He’s a free agent at year’s end. Does anyone here believe the Reds will go big enough to keep him on the team, especially given the high expectations for Duno. And don’t you think Stephenson knows that catchers who hit are a rare commodity these days? Consequently, follow the Krall Way, salary dump Stephenson for young and controlled prospects. In other words, it’s a Castillo sort of play. So yes, TySteve being traded seems more likely than not.
Since there is no catcher available to replace him it could be the best thing to do is let him play out his contract and then reach free agency. The hope would be that Duno would be available/ready by then especially since there may not BE a 2027 MLB season. Who knows what the new CBA will look like anyway.
The two catcher trade candidates of interest to me that seem to pop up around these discussions are Ford from the Mariners; a highly rated prospect ready for MLB, stuck behind Raleigh. Hard to see how the Reds line up with the M’s for a deal. The other is a bit of a dark horse, but Rutschmann (sp?) from the O’s. They need starting pitching, there could be the framework of a deal there.
I dunno, idle speculation. I fully expect TySteve will be behind the plate when 2026 starts.
The fact that Singer, Stephenson, and Lux are on expiring contracts makes them good trade candidates if the Reds need to clear payroll to reel in a bigger fish. Singer makes the most and would likely bring back the best return. The Reds have some good candidates to fill his role in the rotation and maintain depth. Stephenson would also net a decent return, but moving him would create a hole. Lux probably brings back the least. It will be interesting to watch these three this offseason.
I don’t know how you trade Singer. He gave the Reds so many dependable innings, If the Reds top 3 pitchers could be counted on to make most of their starts, maybe.
Plus, it feels like you’d just be making the offense better at the expense of defense. They need to move the needle on offense without sacrificing pitching.
Agree, Richard.
Based on Tito Francona’s reactions (at times), Singer is well liked by Francona, and I don’t think he would be down with trading him. Not sure how this would influence Nick Krall.
The situation at mid-season might be different. At that time, the pitching staff might have sorted itself out, Singer might be more expendable, and there might be a hitter available to help the Reds, that they could get for Singer.
The Reds could also get an extension with Stephenson by Opening Day; they can afford this. Who would catch (Duno is still a couple of years away)? The other internal alternatives are pretty weak offensively, as if the Reds have solved all their other offensive problems and weaknesses.
Richard D Fitch: “They need to move the needle on offense without sacrificing pitching”.
Given the fact the Reds don’t have significant money to spend and their strength is pitching and weakness is hitting I would love to know how they get done what you say they need to do.
Trade prospects?
Or by acquiring the hitter(s) through free agency.
“They need to move the needle on offense without sacrificing pitching.”
…and catching.
I’m pretty open to any method of improvement. If the Reds feel good about Brandon Williamson and Rhett Lowder, then moving Singer makes good sense.
Let’s also not forget that the team we need to beat in our division has successfully moved some pretty good pitching AND improved.
BK: “I knew the Brewers, Mr. Red, and you’re no Brewer.”
Yeah, I don’t see any sense in trading Singer. If he has a good season, he will be eligible for a qualifying offer, which may create a tough decision for the decision. Over his last 12 starts, he had a 2.81 ERA, with a FIP of 3.57. If he is close to that next season, he would reject the QO for a shot at a multi-year contract. And the Reds could even extend him.
Obviously, if a team makes a silly offer, they’d have to look at it, but the acquiring team will look at him as a 1-year rental, so he isn’t going to bring back a top prospect.
The focus of any potential trade sending out major league talent should be bringing back major league or near major league talent.
@GMR, that’s a great reference and very appropriate. The Brewers own the Reds right now, just like the Cardinals used to own the Reds. They are currently the gold standard.
Good for Moll – the Reds think there’s something still there. The India deal is a bot of sa surprise, but still just one year, so Lux is still right there with that. A bit surprising they tendered he and Benson – but each has some, though perhaps minimal, trade value.
Is one answer to the Spiers/Munoz bafflement that they also we’re available for minimal trades (for the always popular “cash value”) and now move on? Or, have each inidicated they’re willing to re-sign MiLB deals? I expect Banfield will be back though there’s always the catcher merry-go-round during the winter.
The India deal is indeed a surprise. He was not good last year.
I’m absolutely stunned that an MLB team in 2025 thinks India is worth 8M$. Lux is worth at least 5M$ if this is the case.
I watched several Reds games at GABP this year. Lux gives a professional at bat IMO. Much more so than many other guys on the team.
His defense might stink but we need his offense. Perhaps they can hide him at 2nd more and put McLain in center some. McLain has not earned a stable position so if the team is better with Lux bat in the lineup then they’ll have to figure out how to get it in there.
I’m not convinced we can spend 5M$ in free agency and find better than Lux. the beginning contracts being signed suggest prices are going up on mlb players.
Hey Redsvol. No way I move McClain to the OF let alone CF. He is still way too valuable (I see him having a good bounce back year) to try to get him to learn a new position and to be flying and diving and crashing into walls with a surgically repaired shoulder just so we can accommodate Lux. If the Reds are serious about making a play for a serious needle moving power hitter they are going to need all the dollars they can get making Lux expendable.
I would not be surprised to see either Munoz or Spiers re-signed to minor league deals. Perhaps the opportunity to negotiate with Munoz was the purpose behind his waiver claim.
The Red’s lineup is quite heavy with right-handed hitters. Lux and Benson fill a need. Both are fine in bench roles.
Spiers could not pitch in 2026, obviously recovering from TJ surgery. I think it is likely that the Reds and Spiers’ agent were in contact, and it was explained that the Reds would re-sign Spiers to a minor league deal and continue to cover his re-hab. Up to them if another team takes on a marginal pitcher who will not pitch on 2026.
In 1960 the Reds lineup was C Bailey 1B Robinson 2B Martin SS McMillan 3B Kasko LF Post CF Pinson RF Bell and SP McLish Purkey Hook O’Toole Newcombe.
They were 67-87. Made some trades and called up some rookies.
In 1961 their lineup was C Edwards 1B Coleman 2B Blasingame SS Kasko 3B Freese LF Post CF Pinson RF Robinson and SP Jay Purkey O’Toole Hunt Maloney.
They were 93-61 and won NL Pennant.
It can happen that the 2026 Reds will be better than the 2025 Reds.
Interesting that you posted this. I’ve always thought that off-season was one of the most genius and underrated of the era. It is really fun to look back and see how all that came together. The trade of McMillan was quite unpopular at the time. And Bailey was one of Ruth Lyons’ favorite guys.
A few good trades. A few good callups. Bill DeWitt was on his game that winter.
Here’s MLB Trade Rumors explanation for why you would non-tender players who aren’t Arbitration eligible…..
” None of the three were arbitration-eligible, but by non-tendering them rather than designating them for assignment, Cincinnati bypasses the need to place them on waivers and can try to quickly re-sign any of the bunch to minor league deals, if the Reds are so inclined.”
Exactly, that’s what is unique about non-tendering a player instead of the DFA process.
Penny ante poker.
Reds are running it back on offense. Wow.
Stephenson /Trevino C
McLain/Elly/Hayes 2nd/3rd/SS
Steer Flex 1b/LF
Stewart 1b/DH/Flex
Lux DH/LF/2b back up
Freidl/marte/Benson OF with LF rotational combo again.
Cheap 1 year Addition OF
Cheap 1 year addition infield back up.
Add some cheap value bullpen arms in mid winter.
No FA signings past 2026.
Rinse/Repeat
Uggh
Don’t give up yet old school. It’s very early. Naylor signed for a reasonable contract.
There is some talent that I belive we will be in on. My bigger concern is that it appears teams like the Royals and Pirates are willing to spend money, thereby driving up prices for the small market teams.
Could easily be old-school. That’s why I place so much hope for the new CBA coming to the rescue in 27 making it easier for most teams to compete with salary caps, higher taxes for the thresholds and higher floors for the cheap owners. So many different teams year after year are many tens of millions of dollars away from even the middle ground of team salaries. If these owners are that cash strapped (they never should be in the business of competitive sports in the first place) they need to sell to an ownership that can at least have competitive resources.
If nothing else, ie lowering payroll to allow more spending, these non tenders do clear roster space.
With free agency upon us, and less so, the Rule 5 draft next Wednesday (order isn’t finalized) we need roster space.
Whether we intend to start the 2025 season with Lux and Benson, we are starting the 25-26 offseason with them.
Meaning, we can always DFA them later if upgrades are there for the taking. So, further thought says these moves are fine.
In an indirect way the India deal with the Royals cements, and even augments, Lux status with the Reds. It surely shows the floor for that type of player, and indicates Lux’s trade value. Those salaries are nothing to the big-dollar teams, but if the Royals see India just above his arb projection, that means all but a very few teams will be in that market.
As for Benson, it’s a smaller amount, and it’s just a tender, so unless he accepts asap, he’s still in DFA territory, and remains as a throw in for a trade package.
As to each being on the 26 man roster in late March, doubtful; and expect some others to have been moved by then as well.
Weird they kept Banfield just to risk losing Urbaez when there’s a need for a utility infielder..
There always seems to be a player early on that they mark as an organizational player. They might move him up or down to fill an open spot regardless of performances. more time than not it is a Latin guy. Francisco has been that guy for a while, though he has put up some decent numbers. Although not Latin I think currently it has become a Trey Faltine. Not sure they will ever look at these guys as more than extra minor league pieces. Long term they might make them coaches.
After the Reds asked Spiers to be burned in many games and Spiers took the ball through pain they non-tendered him… Maybe he will re-sign by Cincy …
I won’t be surprised to see the Reds re-sign Speiers. There’s potential there, but that would allow him to recuperate and rehab at minimal cost.
I’m ambivalent about Lux. I just don’t see a starting role for him, but if he ends up as a bench guy who can make spot starts and provides insurance at 2B, LF and DH then that’s a pretty good bench bat. If the Reds have to rely on him every day that won’t bode well.
As for Benson, I’m glad they’ve kept him and hope he’s an important part of the outfield rotation next year. He still has a high ceiling and made noticeable, positive changes to his stance and approach that appeared to be working. He was forgotten briefly late in the season but when Francona finally started getting him at bats again he was productive. I’d love to see him get regular playing time against righties. And I’d use spring to bat him against every lefty possible. He just feels like one of those guys that the Reds have somewhat given up on but if he ends up somewhere else I could see him becoming a very productive hitter. I’m hoping that happens in a Reds uniform instead. I’ll be good with an outfield rotation of Friedl, Marte, Stewart and Benson for 2026.
It is the 2023 Benson that was the 2019 Aristides Aquino rerun that gets us hooked. Then comes 2024 and the needed adjustment.
I remember Brantley and Welsh both loving Benson, his approach and his strike zone coverage. Thought we had a player because of his eye.
But eyes can be deceiving and Benson’s eye certainly is. For him to have value, he needs to get back to 2.5 to 1 strike out to walk rate of 2023.
2024 and 2025, watching his at bats has been hard because his adjustments just are not working.
I do love the slow walk of Rece Hinds. I see more of a player in Hinds than I do Benson. But that is the neat thing about baseball is that the light bulb could go on for either player and maybe you catch a Eugenio Suarez.
That is the move all success is measured against for the current day Reds.
Which is why the grow your own success of Sal Stewart is so exciting. Watching him make real time adjustments in a small sample size. I do not see him struggling in 2026, but then again I saw Paul Householder and Nick Esasky as perineal All Stars.
With hitting at such a premium, take all the time you need with Hinds. If he and Collier emerge, we are discussing bench pieces instead of LF and DH
Hey CDF3000. Stewart in the OF?
If thats the outfield rotation next season we are staring at 90 losses.
I think Luis Robert Jr. may be available too. The White Sox sure aren’t going to resign him for what he allegedly want.
Oh, joy.
Lux had the highest wFA on the team at 9.4. In other words, he rakes fastballs. Benson hit sliders and cutters well and as a lefthanded bat, he arguably has some value for the team – especially with Marte and Hinds being righthanded hitters.
Benson had 2 DRS in RF last year to boot. Lux was horrendous in the OF. Not much better at 2B either. Still, if McCain needs to slide over to SS to rest Elly, Lux could make do at 2B.
Thus, these two could have roles on the team. They could get dealt too. We’ll see. Benson always seemed to be part of rallies and big moments and, as stated, you are not throwing fastballs past Lux. That’s a Zack Cozart trait.
Perhaps more importantly, these two allow Arroyo, Balczar, and Rodriguez to start the season in AAA. That’s important depth and avoids the need to rush them.
Anyone know if Brandon Williamson is going to be ready for Spring Training and if he is going to stick as a SP or move to the bullpen? Doug?
Last I read, he had completed his rehab and expected a normal offseason.
Assuming Singer stays and Burns earns the 5th spot in the rotation, the AAA rotation could reflect Petty, Lowder, Aguiar, Franco, and Williamson. That’s a very deep starting pitching group. Major strength of the team – if everyone is healthy.
Petty deeply regressed last year at AAA and many other arms are coming off of injury. I hope there’s no setbacks. I also hope Greene and Lodolo can stay healthy. Pitching is going to have to be stellar again in 2026.
“Pitching is going to have to be stellar again in 2026”. Yes it will for us to scrape by .500 if our offense pretty much stays the same as 2025. There will not be another miracle gift from the Mets to get us in the playoffs. So basically another waisted year. IMHO if we are to have any chance at competing for wildcard/division champs we need to take a chance and trading from our strength, pitching to get a serious needle moving power hitting bats(s).
Petty had an unusual 2 half seasons. Unfortunately, the very good half was the beginning, and then a very bad second half. I commented a while ago that it was a bit like Phillips but not quite the mysterious disaster he went thru. Petty still is very young, and has shown to be very good. Another good few months in Louisville, and ease him in to MLB – a spot start, some long relief, etc.. If they avoid multiple, lengthy pitching time lost to injury the depth should allow them to optimize the younger arms later this season. But they need to fill up the bullpen before mid-March – cannot be adding last chance arms the week before the opener.
I think Krall consults his Magic 8 ball. There’s no logic to some of his moves.
Feel like offseason disappointments incoming. I hope and pray I’m wrong…
No one can divine the powers of The Magic 8 Ball!
Well, you will certainly feel vindicated if the front office deliberately makes your life more miserable.
We’re all collateral damage, JCU.
There’s still the most active part of the offseason to go, which is usually January, after the holidays and before spring training begins. I think the Reds front office will make a move to strengthen the offense, in whatever way is possible. The Reds need a solid center of the batting order to accompany their outstanding starting pitching.
I like keeping Sam Moll around, as I think he’s showed enough in the past that he is a potential bounce back candidate. They lacked above average left-handed pitching in the bullpen so hopefully he could help fill that void again.
So, why did they let Reiver Sanmartin go? He has worse stuff and doesn’t throw as hard as Sam Moll? Really?
Nothing against Sam Moll personally, but expecting him to “bounce back” is really expecting a lot.
Sometimes the Red’s front office makes sense, and sometimes you just have to wonder.
What if the Reds made a big trade with ATL to get Michael Harris? Wonder what that would look like?
Harris might be a good pickup. The one concern is that his stats have declined every season since his rookie year. His OPS+ has declined from 133, 116, 99, 88 as has his WAR. He doesn’t walk much at all, 16 times last year in 641 PAs. He has only 85 BBs for his 4-year career. Morgan averaged better than that over his entire 22-year career. So, while I agree he’d be a nice pickup, I wouldn’t give up the farm to get him. Except for age, Friedl has him in most categories.
Harris in his last 70 games, covering 285 PAs, slashed .302/.317/.531, which will play in Peoria and elsewhere.
I don’t think the Braves have a good internal option to replace him in CF, so I don’t see why they would trade him, except for a silly package that the Reds won’t offer.
Harris also has a team-friendly contract (at least considering his second-half production) through at least 2030, so the Braves would demand a haul for him.
Those are scary BB%s, and though Friedl is at or past his sell-by date, there are more options for a defensive CFer than for the power hitting corner OF they need. Maybe expand the deal to include others and it may work, but the Braves likely want far too much for Harris alone.
RE: Singer trades suggested here and elsewhere
A year ago, Singer had two years of control left, with roughly $20M due over the two years assuming he would have normal production in ’25.
KC shopped him far and wide, and the best offer they got was for Jonathon India, who did not even project as a starter for the Reds in ’25 after a so so ’24 and by all accounts was mostly a replacement level player.
Now Singer has one year left, projected at around $12M, after a ’25 season very similar to his ’24.
The idea that Singer has some significant surplus value with just one year left @ $12M, a year after he had more value and fetched only Jonathon India, is false. Trading him would mostly amount to a salary dump with not much coming back.
Further consider that Singer, Martinez, and Littel started 68 games last year. Singer had 32 of those. It’s already a big hole. It will be a HUGE HOLE if SInger is traded.
I view Singer @ $12M as just as a cheaper version of the $21M they paid Martinez via QO last season.
His value to the Reds far exceeds his value as a salary dump and I just don’t agree with the notion that the Reds need to free that salary then replace him with in house starters that are unlikely to replicate the quality of the 68 starts made by Singer, Martinez, and Littel.
I agree that Singer has great value to the Reds. I don’t necessarily agree that trading him would be a salary dump, although it would free up payroll. Many are discussing trading him in a vacuum. I’m not necessarily advocating for him to be traded, but I see it as a possibility toward building a better team. Burns is going to start next season if he’s healthy. So are Greene, Lodolo, and Abbott. So, in Burns, Lowder, and Williamson, we have three pitchers who have actually had major league success available to replace Singer, Martinez, adn Littel. So, it’s a possibility, but one that would have to be part of a larger series of moves to make sense.
So the trio of Burns, Lowder, and Williamson would have to make 76 starts to make up the starts made by Singer, Martinez, Littel, and Burns (who made 8).
That’s a lot of weight on those 3 guys, two of which are coming off severe injury and are not proven at the MLB level anyway. And then Greene/Lodolo/Abbott may miss time too.
I mean, yeah you might add another unproven MLB guy, Aguiar, as depth.
In 2024 the Reds had ten pitchers start 5 or more games. Subtract Singer, and we’ve only discussed 7 so far, with several of those performance or injury concerns
For me, Singer and the innings he provides will be extremely valuable to the 2026 Reds.
I agree. It takes at least eight quality starters to get through a season. Given the Reds’ level of talent, they almost certainly need three of Burns, Greene, Abbott, and Lodolo to pitch a lot of innings or offseason moves aren’t going to mean much in September. That’s the dilemma–trade a pitcher, you need to backfill that pitcher, at least from a depth standpoint. If they trade Stephenson, they will need to find another quality catcher. If they trade prospects, they are giving up value in future seasons for 2026. It would be nice if they could just go get free agents, but I don’t think they can plug their four or five holes with their reported budget and maintain their current roster.
I think to fill the gaps in relief pitching, I’d be looking to trade former top prospects that don’t seem have a position currently on the Reds, and don’t have the performance to warrant making one for them, like CES and even perhaps Arroyo, and I’d see what kind of quality, controllable relief pitching I might be able to get for them. Arroyo in particular should have some value. CES might have less but still some.
Alright, we now have something of a comp for what Singer might return with the Sonny Gray trade. Fitts will likely compete for the Cardinals rotation and can be controlled for six season;, Clarke has an electric, but erratic arm–he’s a high ceiling, high risk prospect. Even with the Cardinals kicking in $20M, Singer would be cheaper, and he’s been a good bit better over the last two years.
Fitts was 12th on their prospect list. He’s not exciting and probably will not make a MLB rotation but Clarke is 5th on their list, albeit high risk as you say and a long way from MLB.
But for me the fact remains that Singer is highly valuable to a Reds rotation that is lacking depth and is full of guys that have missed time due to injury, are coming off of significant injuries, or are just performance risks in general.
Whatever salary relief or limited trade value he has is outweighed by his value to the rotation in ’26 as a reliable and productive innings eater.
MLBTR projects Fitts as a #4 starter or long reliever. What I’m really pushing back on is the notion that Singer would be more valuable to the Reds. That’s a tough statement to make when you don’t know what the return is. I don’t think that the Cardinal return would be ideal for the Reds. Adding a player like Clarke, a nice prospect, would be a poor move. The Reds already added a pitcher like Fitts in Keegan Thompson. I’m going to say this again: the Brewers have pulled off similar trades over the last several seasons while moving much better pitchers than Singer AND improved. Just kinda encouraging everyone to keep an open mind. There are certainly other paths, but CES isn’t going to return major league talent because he’s not a major league talent.
What we do know is Singer was a 3.1 bWAR pitcher for each of the last 2 years and the Reds are a team that is in need of rotation depth and innings, for obvious reasons.
I’m not saying shut the door on talks, I’m saying it’s very unlikely other teams would offer something that offsets Singer’s value to the Reds in 26. Fangraphs projects Fitts as 0.3 fWAR. This type of return, even if the return is for an OF instead of starting pitcher, is very unlikely to make the Reds better in ’26 than they would be with a 3.1 bWAR starting pitcher who has a history of being healthy and eating innings.
To address the other topic of your response, which is
“Brewers have pulled off similar trades over the last several seasons while moving much better pitchers than Singer AND improved”
that comment I agree with. But to me that means listening on Lodolo (or Greene, but prefer Lodolo), not Singer, because Lodolo is the type of value with 2 years of control with higher upside that might fetch a significant return. And in that return, I would want a young pitcher with upside that is MLB ready and can add to the depth as well as an OF. In redsminorleagues several days ago, I proposed Lodolo for Kristian Campbell and Peyton Tolle, with Campbell being a former top 10 overall prospect who have a bit of a rough year and may not have a place to play, and Tolle being the pitcher with upside. But now the Red Sox seemed to have filled at least part of their rotation needs with Gray.
Yep, the Reds don’t need to flip a quality pitcher like Singer for a couple of lesser players. The goal would be to add sufficient talent with the return plus the financial savings to enable the acquisition of at least one player of equal value or better value than Singer. I agree, the return of any offseason trade involving Singer must have a goal of improving the 2026 Reds team. To me, that is the only value proposition that would work. That means the financial savings have to bring back Bellinger, Schwarber, or Alonso, or the Reds should just keep him.
One other point, Fitts’ projection is essentially worthless. His Marcel projection generates just 39 percent reliability. This means that statistical regression accounts for more of his projection than his actual performance. It’s hard to imagine any of the other projection models generating a much higher reliability factor given his limited playing time.
No reason for the FO not to talk on any player not named Elly. I think I am just more apprehensive here more than most about the state of our pitching losing Martinez, Littel, & Pagan. Big shoes to fill, and it would be very helpful if two of Lowder/Williamson/Aguiar were healthy and productive. But that may be asking for a lot.
Enjoyed the discussion, as always. Thank you.
Sorry, another reply landed at the bottom of the page. Yes, thank you for the respectful, baseball-centered conversation. I always enjoy your comments.
Sorry, I missed your other comment before replying … Fangraphs has Gray slotting in at #2 in the Red Sox rotation. They should still be shopping to deepen their rotation. I would prefer Abreu or Duran back for Lodolo. I think Lodolo ran out of innings for the Reds last season, leading to the goofiness we saw with him coming out of the bullpen on a very limited basis. He should have started game 2 of the playoffs. His health has held him back, but he’s incredibly good–at least a number two on a playoff team. I would be okay with moving him for a #2 or #3 hitter, especially one who hits LH.