It’s nearly time for free agency to really begin. And with that comes article after article of which free agents are the best fits for what teams, who will cost how much over how many years, and cries and pleas from fans everywhere for their team to be the one to land so-and-so player to help take their team to the next level. Yesterday Reds fans got a crushing blow from the front office when Cincinnati president of baseball operations Nick Krall told the media that the payroll in 2026 was likely to be about the same as it was in 2025.
MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand may have missed that memo. Or maybe he submitted his article before that came out and his editor missed the memo before publishing his piece this morning on the Top 30 Free Agents. Despite attendance being up and television ratings being up that’s apparently not enough to move the payroll for the Reds. And that’s where Feinsand’s article hits a rather big speed bump.
While running down the list of the top 30 guys, the Cincinnati Reds are only listed as a “potential fit” for one of them: Kyle Schwarber. The 33-year-old free agent hit 56 home runs and drove in 132 in the 2025 season with the Philadelphia Phillies. That kind of production would benefit any lineup in baseball. It’s the kind of difference maker for a team like the Reds who struggled for any consistent ability to score runs to pair up with an elite pitching staff to help take them from a mediocre, barely above .500 team to perhaps something more.
But to bring in a guy like Kyle Schwarber it’s going to cost money. And plenty of it. He was listed as the 3rd best free agent according to Feinsand. While he doesn’t get into the estimated contracts/salaries for anyone within the article it’s something that he did with Schwarber in the middle of September. This is what he wrote:
Among those we spoke to, the consensus is that Schwarber should land a deal of four or five years for at least $30 million per season. The days of signing players into their 40s are largely a thing of the past, but locking up Schwarber through his age-36 or age-37 season seems like it should be in play.
Cincinnati has plenty of money coming off of the books with guys leaving in free agency. But they also have plenty of guys that will be getting raises in arbitration that eats up some of those “savings”.
We don’t quite know how much money the Reds have on the books for 2026 just yet. They still have to decide on what they are going to do with options on both Brent Suter and Scott Barlow, as well as having a mutual option with Austin Hays. Not picking up the option on all three would cost them $2,250,000. Bringing all three back would cost them $19,500,000 – with the bulk of that being $12,000,000 to Hays.
Still, it’s tough to see how the Reds could keep their payroll nearly the same as it was in 2025 and find a way to add in $30-ish million in salary for Kyle Schwarber. With some trades it may be possible to clear enough payroll to make that happen, but it would take some real creativity to do that all while still trying to remain competitive – even if you do bring in Schwarber. And all of that ignores the fact that Cincinnati can’t just say “we have the money to sign Schwarber”, they have to compete with other teams to bring him in. And that means that you have to sign him before you make trades to clear payroll because if he signs elsewhere and you’ve already traded someone(s) away to clear money, then you’ve hamstrung yourself. But if you sign him and then can’t move enough salary in trades, you’ve also hamstrung yourself.
Shock the baseball world Bob!
And he’s only 20 million a year more than the Reds are willing to spend. Lmao…
Not happening. We do this every year. Odds are that Krall twiddles his thumbs until after the first of the year and then goes hunting for bargains, i.e., FAs/players that no one else wants. Wouldn’t mind being surprised, but I’m not holding my breath.
“Wouldn’t mind being surprised, but I’m not holding my breath.”
Yeah. Passing out is not good. 😉 When it comes to waiting on Krall it could be fatal. 🙂
Exactly. There’s a better chance the Reds sign Kyle Farmer than Kyle Schwarber. I can see people getting all excited when Krall says we have signed Kyle ……………Farmer!!!!!
Hopefully they do that too. They need a veteran infielder reserve now that Espinal is gone. Plus, he could be the 3rd string catcher in an emergency.
There may, or may not, be a lot to criticize Krall and the FO for, but this is not one of them. It’s been clear for years now that anything in excess of 3 years or $20M/year is clearly an ownership issue.
Even with all that, I won’t be surprised if Schwarber gets more than 30M AAV for 4 years, or slightly less for 6 years or more. 5 years at 30M seems like the market rate, and not much less than that.
Schwarber IMO is keeps getting recycled in FA signings with the Reds because he is a good player but also born in Ohio. But as many keep saying he is not coming to a team like the Reds. Agree with you Optimist, there are some things to criticize about Krall, just like there is about every GM. I would ask anyone to pick another GM and reasons why he could do better than Krall with these financial limitations. At any rate this team is what it is and is not going to ever change unless the new CBA fixes the baseball rules or we get a new ownership.
I seriously doubt any of the GMs are “twiddling their thumbs,” but if it fits your mindset, go with it.
Put me down as a no for Schwarber. Like the guy but he is very one dimensional. My move would be to trade McClain, then sign Bo Bichette for 2b. He doesn’t strike out a lot, hits for average and has some power and at 27 is near peak. Put Sal Stewart at 1b. Steer in LF and hire a new batting coach who teaches putting ball in play. Really tired of all the Ks, enjoyed watching Toronto’s offense.
This would be such a good signing for the Reds for many, many reasons.
If he gives the hometown team a chance I’d be in on the first 3 years (age 33-35) and $90M, but anything beyond that is going to need a team opt out. No telling when Ma Nature claims his reflexes or eyesight.
I hoping they go hard on Naylor
Is phrasing not a thing anymore?
Phrasing..,are we still doing that? 😉
Yup agreed 100% Edddiek957.
I also think they should trade Brady Singer currently 1 yr 8.7M to the Angels for 1yr 7.8M
From what I understand Marty Brenneman was crucial in getting Francona to xome to the reds. Could he help influence Schwarber to come as well?
Unless he’s chipping in millions of dollars a year for Schwarber’s pay, then no.
I doubt that Schwarber needs to be influenced by anyone to play for his boyhood team. It all depends on the money.
I hope not, would be a mistake for Reds. They don’t need another 200 strikeouts.
My preference would be to unload from the farm system to acquire a controllable bat. I’m listening on any combination of players not named Burns, Duno, or Stewart. This would allow the front office to spread more money around to upgrade the bullpen and possibly extend core guys, which in turn lessens the need to lean on the farm system so heavily, thus buying time to replenish.
That Schwarber is such a perfect fit is why I am in the vast minority in believing that they will make an honest offer for him. The Phillies
The Reds are worth a much more as a business if they are very good and not just making the wild card every 5 years. The reason they will make the legit offer to Schwarber is that it’s the smart move, like Tesio’s approaching Barzini.
Tesio’s “smart move” didn’t really work out for him, but he did finally land a gig with Barney Miller.
The Phillies are the main competition.
I’m afraid The Godfather analogy will go a step further:
Robert “Castellini” Duvall to Bull “Tessio” Krall: “Can’t do it, Sally.”
Not this time:)
How about Devin Williams for a rich 1 year deal? Read where he may be looking to re-established himself as a closer for a longer term deal and well, the Reds need a closer.
Cincinnati is not New York. Worked for Sonny Gray.
Interesting
A game and franchise shifting signing that would be a near perfect fit that’s never going to happen. Especially with the dollars owed to pay Candelario not to play for the Reds. What a bust that signing was and we’re still feeling the effects from it.
Only the Reds would ignore a big bat in the lineup where they play their home games at GABP. You can’t make this stuff up.
Hey Jason T. Yeah it turned out to be a bust but I am sure very few people saw that coming. Well I don’t know they ignored getting that kind of hitter it’s just usually their price tags start at 20M per. But yes it has been incredibly frustrating. Do I remember correctly most of the big hitters the Reds passed on and signed with other teams were all pretty much a bust?
Phillies is one of the teams will be ahead pushing for Schwarber again surely. Reds have been defeated by the Phillies in this kind of race before. Remember Wheeler and Realmuto many years ago to say two cases. That’s no considering others big-market teams who will be tempted to land this guy…
If only Doug were the guy pulling the purse strings (or any of us for that matter).
Those deferments are official.
With no Nick Martinez and the players mentioned above, we have the money to sign him this year.
There’s not a reason to make a respectable and competitive offer.
If he’s willing to defer a little bit, and the Candelario money coming off next year maybe we can ramp up in 26 and round out the roster and make an attempt at a serious run in 27 and 28.
Could they offer Schwarber $120m for 4 years, but only pay him $21m the first year while they’re still paying Candelario, and then $33m per year for the final 3 years?
Could always do deferred salary as well. Kick the can down the road until after Bob is long gone.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/3-potential-fits-for-all-star-free-agent-slugger-kyle-schwarber/ar-AA1PRGVY?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=690c535f43ab4c2890d734588855c872&ei=14 I put this in the wrong place.
Sign Schwarber. Another great piece by Mr. Gray who I think is the best in the business of covering the Reds.
If you can offer Martinez $20+M for one year, you should be able to offer Schwarber $30+M for one year. Surely he wants more than one year, but hey, give it a shot. He’s young enough that If he performs well, he can FA again in 2027.
As a life-long Reds fan there’s no way they sign Schwarber. They don’t have the payroll flexibility to sign Schwarber. With different ownership and an open pocketbook it could be Schwarber.
Look at it this way. On the 2025 team, Nick Martinez, Austin Hays, Brent Suter, and Scott Barlow were making a combined $30 million. They’re all gone. Schwarber will cost $30 million.
Yes, there are arbitration numbers going up but get a little clever and make it happen. If you have to, cut Lux and save another $5 million.
The question is, spend the money on one player (Schwarber) or spread it out to multiple bullpen arms and role players? We’ve done the latter for too many years with limited success.
Hey Daniel Kals. They have done the latter because you can not ignore multiple positions just to get one bopper. We need to have the $ to do both and we don’t. Even if we sign Schwarber 2027 is still a question mark with most probably a prolonged strike and that ends up kind of a wasted year for Schwarber/Reds and Reds still have to pay him. I think they are turning down all these options for these players to see if we can resign them for less not to save up for Schwarber or the like. Also Schwarber is getting older and what happens if he turns out like Candelario? Reds would be fighting the Pirates for last place for a bunch of years. Reds don’t have that kind of money to fix those kins of problems.
One player going down (injuries, ineffectiveness) can sink a team, maybe for more than one year (see Candyman.)
Spreading it around is a safer bet, especially when trying with bounceback/change of scenery candidates like Hays/Hayes/Benson/Lux. You win some, you lose some, you back into the playoffs some. But you retain future manueverability.
Based on the development of the young core, this is the year they should flip the script and push the chips in, but they probably won’t due to liklihood of labor stoppage. It’s not too difficult to see that turtling up is the likely strategy.
Cincinnati Red Turtles.
I think if you could get Schwarber for 3 years 90 million I’d perhaps make that signing. I think in the Reds favor and other teams as well, I don’t think he believes the Phillies have a World Series winning team so I think he’ll look to move on from there. He’s won it all before, and I think knows with the Ownership kind of throwing Harper under the bus there, and how they can’t get over the hump it’s not going to happen there. Otherwise, I think he’d stay.
He doesn’t need the money, and will get paid what he wants by someone for the most part. So where would he go to have the best chance to win a championship? I think talent wise, the Reds are attractive. And then of course being a South West Ohioan, maybe his last stop before retirement? The Reds have a couple Aces up their sleaves to possibly sign Schwarber.
I think though what will keep him from signing though is I think he will doubt whether the Reds organization has what it takes to put together a true World Series contending team, and that slight doubt will lead him elsewhere. Not quite sure where that is…I could see a team like the Rangers or Braves signing him, teams that have won it all recently.
It’ll be interesting…he could be a complete bust too with injuries and age, but I feel like he’d have at least one good year, and I think the risk for the Reds would be worth it unless it’s just crazy money he’s desiring.
Yes, he is a perfect fit. But is anyone listening?
It’s not going to happen. I’d rather see a trade for an OF with some power who can get on base. I’ve heard ideas like Singer to the Red Sox for Abreu or Durran makes perfect sense. I’ve also heard talks about Adell or Ward from Anaheim. Sure they have power but what we don’t need is another .230 hitter that strikes out too much. Buxton from the Twins would be a good fit. Power, speed, hit .264 this year but his health is always a problem. Still, I’d take him over Ward or Adell.
Sign Schwarber, then bring Castellanos back for LF. Phillies would likely be glad to dump him. May even pay some of that contract down. Cost?