We are still about week away from free agency at the earliest. And that’s only going to happen if there’s a sweep since free agency begins a day after the World Series comes to an end. Even when that happens true free agency doesn’t begin right away as teams have five days after that to have exclusive negotiations with to-be free agents who were with them in 2025. When those five days are up if players have not agreed to a new contract then they can become true free agents and negotiate with all teams unless they are extended a qualifying offer during that. I don’t remember the last time a player agreed to a new deal before testing the true free agent waters within that 5-day “exclusive negotiating” period of time.
This year the Cincinnati Reds have a few players who are set to become free agents at some point in the next two weeks. We’ve already taken a look at Miguel Andujar and Emilio Pagan in this series and today we’re going to look at starting pitcher Zack Littell.
The right-handed pitcher was acquired at the trade deadline in a move with the Tampa Bay Rays that saw Cincinnati bring Littell in and send out pitching prospects Adam Serwinowski and Brian Van Belle.
Zack Littell made 22 starts for the Rays before being traded. In that time he threw 133.1 innings with a 3.58 ERA. That was good for an ERA+ of 115, which is the ERA adjusted for the parks a guy has pitched in where 100 is league average – meaning Littell’s ERA was 15% better than the league average to that point.
After he joined Cincinnati he would go on to make another 10 starts for the Reds. He would throw 53.1 innings and post an ERA of 4.39. That was good for an ERA+ of 105. It was still above the league average, but not quite as good as his time with the Rays.
With both Tampa Bay and Cincinnati, Littell struggled to keep the ball in the park. He gave up 36 home runs on the season in his 186.2 innings. That was the second most home runs allowed in Major League Baseball in 2025. He threw more innings than most pitchers in baseball, which allowed him to give up a lot of homers, but when we look at pitchers with at least 100 innings in 2025 he was 9th in baseball in home runs allowed per 9-innings pitched.
Littell has never been a big strikeout pitcher, but in 2025 his strikeout rate was the lowest of his career in a season in which he pitched in more than 10 games. Where he does shine is his low walk rate. He’s among the stingiest pitchers in baseball when it comes to free passes, ranking 3rd among the 127 pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched this past season.
You can see the career stats for Zack Littell here.
The Qualifying Offer
This year the qualifying offer in Major League Baseball is $22,025,000 for a 1-year contract.
Cincinnati made such an offer (at slightly lesser money) last offseason to Nick Martinez. He accepted it. He was the only player who accepted it in Major League Baseball in the offseason last year.
Zack Littell, like Nick Martinez, is not eligible for the qualifying offer. A team can’t offer it to a player who got one previously in their career (Martinez). They also can’t offer it to a player acquired via a trade during the most recent season (like Littell).
Should the Reds bring him back?
Cincinnati can’t make Littell a qualifying offer but nothing is stopping them from bringing him back on a new contract.
When the 2026 season begins Zack Littell will be 30-years-old and he’ll remain 30 all season long as he won’t turn 31 until October. In his big league career he’s made under $10,000,000. That means he’s likely going to be looking for the biggest deal he can get rather than take some sort of discount for one reason or another.
For Cincinnati the question is does it make sense to bring Littell back. One on hand they don’t “need” him to have five starting pitchers. Without Littell the team could fill out five spots from the group of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Brady Singer, Rhett Lowder, and Chase Burns as long as everyone is healthy. But we are also talking about pitchers and they don’t exactly tend to stay healthy for a full season.
Cincinnati had four starters throw at least 156.2 innings in 2025. One of those guys was Nick Martinez, but he’s also a free agent. With how bullpens are set up and used in the modern game and how often guys tend to get hurt in the era of velocity and spin there just aren’t as many guys who eat innings as there used to be. Littell has only had two seasons in his career as a full time starter and both have come in the last two years. In 2025 he threw more innings than all but 10 pitchers in the game. While it’s premature to call him an innings eater given he’s only topped 90 innings twice in his career and 160 innings once, he showed in 2025 that he at least has a chance to be among the guys who could eat plenty of innings.
The rumors out there suggest that Cincinnati could look to move a starting pitcher in a trade so they could acquire some help on offense given that what they need may be out of their price range on the free agency market. If they do go that route then taking a longer look at bringing Littell back could make a lot more sense.
There are some concerns with Littell, too. His track record as a starting pitcher is rather short. His strikeout rate is low. And he gives up a lot of home runs. Plenty of contact and plenty of home runs in Great American Ball Park usually doesn’t go well. Some pitchers have been able to get away with that. Most haven’t. The upside doesn’t seem too high for Littell. The downside seems low, too, given the contact and home run rates in his profile.
Given the current roster construction of the Cincinnati Reds for 2026 it’s a tough sell to bring back Zack Littell. With what we all assume are limited funds being available and having the pitching depth that the team does have using money that will be available to the front office from ownership on starting pitching feels like it’s not the best use of resources to improve the weakness of the team they are bringing back.
I think there’s value there for the right price, either as a starter or long relief guy. But, like the article implies, I don’t think he’ll be looking for the “right” price.
I liked Littell. I think he’s a gamer, a workhorse who takes the ball every 5days.
Being that his agent knows that he gives up HR’s easily, I’d imagine that his agent would advise him to look around. It may not be a wise decision as his agent knows that also begins to work against his career. It could cost him money or getting signed on his following contract if he has a couple of years of dealing out 40 HR’s.
That should say, as his agent knows also begins to work against his career…
Well if we do trade away one of our other starters, maybe it would make a Littell more sense to bring back Zach.
That’s funny!
Yes, very punny!
Nope. Don’t see the need for what he offers.
His ability to give up home runs and pitching home games at GABP are a scary combination. Appreciate his attitude and what he did for the Reds but I don’t see this as a good fit for the Reds especially at the price he’s going to command.
One thing to remember about the starters listed above is the limited innings Lowder will pitch in ’26. I would think they would top him out at 100. So, do they need a piggyback starter for him? Lowder and Littel are so different in approach and stuff they could be good partners. On a positive note most of Littles homers were solo as he kept people off base.
I do think they might trade a starter for a hitter. Thinking about it, Abbott might bring a fair return. I really like him, but he has run out of gas in the second half two years in a row. In an interview early in the season he said he addressed that issue with his offseason workouts, but it happened again.
It’s kind of a shame they got Littell for Serwinowski, who was an interesting left – handed prospect.
With the young starters and present starters, plus Singer, I don’t see a need to bring him back…
UNLESS (!)
there is a trade of one or more of the other starters to get that BIG BAT that everyone is talking about.
And you know…
I LIKE BIG BATS (there’s a song in there from Sir Mix-A-Lot, but this is a family site)
“His strikeout rate is low. And he gives up a lot of home runs. Plenty of contact and plenty of home runs in Great American Ball Park usually doesn’t go well.”
That says it all. Chances are great that it’s not going to go well.
I’d rather see the Reds try and work out a deal with Martinez than Littel. Nick’s proven to be flexible and can move seamlessly from starter to bullpen without any ego issues. That’s a valuable commodity. And the front office showing a little loyalty to their veterans sure doesn’t hurt the clubhouse.
Littell looks to be in the market of 3 yrs at 13M per. Will Reds go for that or have to pay more for the GABP factor? Quick look for the rest of the SP UFA this off season. Tyler Mahle is still around for market value 5.5M. Sonny Gray if Reds can find a trade with Cardinals where birds pay a good chunk of his 30M owed on his last year of his contract. Nick Martinez is only about 14.3. Anyway so many moving parts, possible SP trades, how much the Reds will have to spend, if Reds see moving a starter to the bullpen the new CBA rules in 27 etc. Reds teams year after year are largely built on hope that many of their players get markedly better and avoid any long term injuries. Then there is throwing a bit of money at mediocre players and again hoping they have a career year or the like. Hope is not a strategy but it seems to the Reds mantra. If I had to guess unless the Reds go bold and trade one of their top three pitchers for an actual needle moving hitter(s) we end up with a season much like this last one give or take. Then we wait for the CBA and “hope” it significantly narrows the gap between the haves and have nots. I as a long, long suffering Reds fan vote for being bold and trading a Greene and Elly sooner than later. We have had them both for four years and nothing to show for it. Hunter in 27, if there is a 27 is set to make 15M. For teams like the Reds the windows of opportunity are few and far apart.
Sonny backloaded his contract, and is owed $35 million next year, with a $5 million buyout on the team’s $30 million option for 2027.
St. Louis will have to eat a bit of that contract to trade him. The better prospect that a team offers, the more that St. Louis will have to eat. I’m guessing another team wants him more than the Reds.
Littell would be nice as a swingman at the right price.
I don’t mind LIttell but I’m concerned he would block some of the other arms we invested good draft money on and are ready. I would not offer him the Qualifying Offer. He’d take it and have the most expensive swingman in the game again.
For another team in a different ballpark Zack Littell could be a solid signing. I just don’t think that is the case in Cincinnati. Sign him in the American League west with their big ballparks and it seems like things could go well. In the National League central with three very home run friendly ballparks is a different story.
This is absolutely true: “…There are some concerns with Littell, too. His track record as a starting pitcher is rather short. His strikeout rate is low. And he gives up a lot of home runs. Plenty of contact and plenty of home runs in Great American Ball Park usually doesn’t go well…” … I still remember the game against the Blue Jays at Cincinnati when Littell surrendered 4 homers in 4 innings dropping a 5-0 lead…
My nerves and patience couldn’t handle 15 more Littell starts at GABP.
I liked Littel as well, but I just feel like they need to save every penny they have for both the back end of the bullpen and someone who can hit for some good power. Looking for at least 20 – 25 home runs. The more the better though. I think there is about 0 percent chance they bring in Schwarber because he basically can only play DH and He is going to probably cost too much for the Reds.
Thank you for your service, Littel in helping the Reds make the playoffs. and good luck to you.
Seems like Littell’s ceiling for the next 2-3 years is as a#4 starter on a good team.
It also seems like we already have a #4 starter on a good team, Brady Singer.
Further, we have a highly promising #5 starter (to being the season) in Chase Burns, as well as solid #2-3 starters in Abbott and Lodolo. Then Greene, of course.
In the somewhat likely event of an injury, we have several young pitchers returning from injury in Lowder, Spiers, Aguilar, Williamson, as well as another also hoping for a bounce back, Petty.
Yes, not all of them will bounce back and, yes, not all will be ML effective. However, should they defy the odds and all five fail, we also will have the standard AAAA arms. We can also go find a #4-5 starter out there somewhere if/when the need emerges.
Where some will say to trade one of our higher end starters and replace him with Littell, I will ask, Why replace a lower cost, controllable starting pitcher with someone possibly less effective (certainly in the NL Central) but much more expensive? It doesn’t add up.
Holding steady with our rotation and our horde of starters at AAA is the type of low risk move Krall is known for.
I honestly don’t see the need. Or other than a low priority need that may be more of a luxury for this club.
Would love to have him back, but extremely doubtful the Reds will meet the price. Give his age and record, and the numbers redfanorbust commented on above, have to think some team will offer him $40M+ for 3 or more years. Anyone think the Reds would commit to a $15M+/3+yr. deal for a FA pitcher? The Martinez deal worked well, and Littell is young enough, but unless they get him to accept opt-outs AND performance bonuses, someone else will simply outbid them.
It looks like they’ll be counting on Phillips to fill the long RP/spot-starter role along with, perhaps Lowder, and someone they pick up. Maybe they can find another Martinez type high AAV/1-2 year deal if Littell is beyond that.
I believe it’s time to replace the 4th or 5th starter in this rotation with Burns as long as he can go (on a innings count) if he has one this year. With two flame-throwers in the rotation surrounded by the other three who offer their own variances, they would cause issues for opposing lineups. Hope Lowder can get it going and be a 5th/6th. Maybe trade for another starter for the back of the rotation?
Off topic, but wonder if Votto’s at the game tonight…
Joey was probably at the game since Toronto is his hometown. And David Bell, former Reds manager, was probably there since he was hired in Nov. 2024, as the Blue Jays V.P. of Baseball Operations and Assistant GM.
I look at Littell thru the lens of what free agents are available this offseason. And there are a lot of very good to good free agent starting pitchers available this year. I think this will suppress Littells contract AAV amount and years. This, plus he doesn’t have a long track record as a starter.
If his market is as a swing starter that will pitch out of the bullpen often, then I’d go after him. This is probably a 2 yr, 16m$ deal.
If the market views him as a reliable, innings-eater starter- this would be a 2 year, 24$M contract. At that price I think I’d shop somewhere else.
I’m pretty confident we will trade 1 starter this off season. So we are going to need some veteran starting pitcher innings from somewhere. It might as well come from someone who DJ has some experience with and who has some experience with us.
And why would anyone be confident that Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Rhett Lowder are going to pitch 150 innings in 2026?
Oooooh – 2yr/16M is right in the Reds comfort zone, and a noticeable savings or Martinez’s just completed 2 years. He doesn’t have to match Nick, just be OK enough, since they have Phillips seemingly set AND one of the other returning from injury starters to gradually fill in.
I sitll think at least one team will get silly and offer him 3 years and 30-40M, well outside what the Reds could or should do.
He was a rental.
There are lots of other SPs out there who provide what he does, so shop around and find whoever offers the best value.
If that turns out to be Littel, then sure, bring him back. But just because he pitched a few months for Cincinnati last season does not give him any special status. He’s just another FA pitcher now.
My hunch is, the Reds will pass. Littel is probably looking for more years than the Reds will want to give him. I think it would be great to have a veteran on the staff, and if he does come back, it makes the Reds a much better team.
Littel’s ability to give up homeruns also is a concern for me.
With the, uh, budget concerns they’re better off just letting it ride with Spiers etc as their #7 starter and trading for someone like Littell if the need arises.
I liked Littell, he’s welcome back anytime. A guy who only gives up solo homers and nothing else is your ideal innings eater for GABP… as long as the Reds’ offense isn’t completely terrible. In that case, it’s a problem.
I said it last year and I’ll say it again sign Quintana. He still very effective, and would be a nice veteran LHP for Abbott and Lodolo to learn from.
I’m for any veteran starting pitcher to be added this offseason – on a reasonable 1-2 yr deal. Quintana would be fine. So would Littell IMO.
Regardless, we need a veteran – in addition to Singer – who is capable of taking the ball every 5th day. Other than Singer and Abbott, we don’t have that. We need 10 starting pitchers to get thru 2026 with confidence. We’re going to need to pitch. Because we sure can’t hit.
The convential wisdom is to trade pitching for hitters . I think the best strategy though is to try strengthen the pitching staff even more. It is a more affordable option. I like Littell but i think we need to get a more productive pitcher to be our4th-5th starter.
The offense was terrible last year and had a severe lack of power. Even though they made the postseason, it was one of the least enjoyable seasons for me to watch in a very long time because most of the games were so dull. At least the rebuilding years had numerous offensive stars. They need bats that can get the ball out of the park instead of to the warning track.
I agree with your point Jon. The games this year were quite difficult to watch
Orioles traded pitching (Pappas and Baldschun) for hitting (Robinson) in 1965. That worked out well for Orioles.
Reds traded pitching (Milt Wilcox) for hitting (Ted Uhlaender) in 1971 and (Ross Grimsley) for (Merv Rettenmund) in 1973. Oops. Those trades flopped.
It’s actually funny how far off writers are when it comes to trade rumors, especially this early in the offseason. Bowden wrote this week about Greene potentially getting traded away. While on the 18th on MLB Trade Rumors, the Reds were listed as a “long shot” for a Sonny Gray trade. Neither move would make much sense, either individually or together.
Speaking of free agents: I would assume we will look to sign one of Brooks Raley or Daniel Coulombe with a slight possibility of Andrew Chafin. Who does everyone like/want? We need LHRP’s. I think I’m leaning toward Coulombe.