Over at CBS Sports this afternoon Chris Towers wrote about the second base position in 2025 from a fantasy baseball perspective. And one of the disappointments he wrote about was Matt McLain. While there are certain things that matter in real games that don’t matter in fantasy baseball (defense!), a lot of things matter in both. And Towers points out that there were plenty of reasons that people should have been concerned about the Cincinnati Reds infielder entering the year.
First, let’s go back to 2023 when Matt McLain showed up in May after a hot start in Triple-A Louisville and then kept that going for the next four months before landing on the injured list and missing the final month of the year. When he was on the field in 2023, he was very good at the plate as he hit .290/.357/.507. That was good for a 127 OPS+, which essentially means after we adjust for all of the ballparks he played in during the season that his OPS was 27% better than league average.
We all know what happened in 2024 as McLain injured his shoulder in spring training, had surgery, and then missed the entire year (a late season injury to his rib cage halted his rehab in August. He was healthy enough to play in the Arizona Fall League after the MLB season ended).
With Matt McLain’s strong 203 season there were some things that could have left one thinking that without some underlying improvements that he was going to struggle to repeat his success in 2025, and that was completely ignoring the fact that he had also had shoulder surgery.
The first thing was that McLain had a high strikeout rate. While that probably feels like the case for most hitters these days, McLain was striking out 28.5% of the time he stepped to the plate. Among players with at least 400 plate appearances that ranked 185th of 212 players. You can strike out quite often and still be productive, but that almost always requires a player to both hit for a lot of power and walk a lot. McLain did not walk much. He did hit for a good amount of power, though.
The other big thing for McLain is that his BABIP was .385 (BABIP is batting average on balls in play – it does not include home runs since those are not “in play” in the sense that someone can catch them). That was the 3rd highest mark in MLB in 2023 among players with 400 plate appearances. While hitters do have more control over their BABIP than pitchers do, .385 is a mark that no one seems capable of routinely repeating. The league average rate these days tends to be around .290.
In 2025 the strikeout rate for McLain remained the same as he struck out 28.9% of the time he stepped to the plate. His power, unsurprisingly coming off of a shoulder injury, fell off in a bit way. And his BABIP also fell off, dropping to .292 on the year. His walk rate did climb a bit, but was just 9.5%.
The warning signs were there and they all played out. That doesn’t mean that things can’t get better in 2026. Above it was noted that hitters do tend to have more control over their BABIP than pitchers do. There’s a few reasons for that and one of those reasons is speed. Guys that are very fast tend to pick up a few more infield hits than guys who aren’t. Matt McLain is very fast. Not only is his sprint speed near the top of the leaderboard, but he gets out of the box and to first base quickly, too.
That speed played worse in 2025 on infield hits than it did two years ago. In 2023 he hit .158 on balls fielded by infielders, but that dropped to .128 in 2025. That’s would be about five additional singles if he matched 2023’s average on those plays.
The larger issue, though, was the drop off in power. He simply wasn’t hitting the ball as hard and that probably also had something to do with his lower BABIP, and of course much lower slugging. Shoulder injuries are tricky to figure out. Some guys have them and it takes them some time to recover and return to the norm, but they eventually get there. But some guys just never get back to where they were before the injury. We don’t know where McLain is going to wind up on that scale. If he’s able to get back the power he showed as a rookie then things could start to look quite a bit better for him as a hitter even if his BABIP doesn’t return to the .385 mark that it was in 2023.
What is pretty clear, though, is that something or multiple things are going to have to improve in his profile if he’s going to continue being a starting second baseman in the big leagues. Whether that’s finding more power, making more contact, walking more, finding a way to raise his BABIP to well above a league average mark, or some combination of those things – something has to change.
Viewership was up for the Reds
The good news for the Cincinnati Reds is that a lot more people watched their games in 2025 than have in the past. There’s plenty of reasons for that, but a large part of it is likely due to the fact that fans could stream the games directly through FanDuel Sports Network without having to have cable/satellite/streaming service that offered the channel. In today’s age of cord cutting and non-traditional “cable” bundles through other streaming services that left plenty of sports fans without their regional sports network left plenty of fans unable to tune in, but in 2025 they could pay for this option directly without bundling it with another $50+ “cable” bill.
More people showed up on more traditional television, too, but the gains there were much smaller (a 6% increase according to the Reds press release, versus a 278% increase in “streamers per game”).
It’s always good to have your product available to more people. And easier to access, too. When people can’t access it easily they learn to live without it and that’s never what you want. 2025 was a big step forward for fans, and ultimately that’s good for the Reds as it not only helps retain fans but also bring in new ones. Long term you need that.
Speaking of long-term, though, the Cincinnati Reds deal with FanDuel Sports Network was only for the 2025 season. Last November the club announced that the 2025 season was going to be distributed and produced by Major League Baseball. It was going to be available on your local cable/satellite provider and available via a non-blackout streaming package. But two months later those plans changed as the Reds went with FanDuel Sports Network.
While the press release was put out to talk about how successful things went for both sides in 2025 there was no mention at all about what was going to be there for 2026. There’s plenty of time to figure that out – spring training games won’t start until late February. But right now we also don’t really have any information as to where fans are going to be tuning in to watch those games.
Matt Mclain played like Jose Altuve on 2023 it seemed. I remember thinking I think he’s probably really not that good, a superstar 2nd baseman. But I also tend to think he’s not as bad as last year.
I think you definitely can’t depend on him to be a top 5 of the order type of hitter going into 2026.
I think for Krall and company, these are the type of decisions that make a difference in how good your team is obviously. Not an easy job. But I think it’d be ok internally to admit he’s not the future at 2b and look to trade him.
I’d support either decision though, trading, or giving him one more year hitting 7-9th in the order. The problem is if you stick with Hayes at 3B, you’re really taking some risks of going into 2026 with another sub par offense with little pop in the lineup as a whole.
Great write-up, Doug, and Jeremiah, your last piece is bang-on; Hayes and McLain at the bottom of the order, especially the Hayes we saw for the last 3 weeks+playoffs, is NEGATIVE plate value. The Reds didn’t have enough plus hitters elsewhere, especially with Elly’s struggles, to make up for those in 2025, and I doubt they can do it again in 2026, unless Krall & Co decide to shock us. I’d love that, but I doubt any of us are holding our breath for it.
If only there was someone, like a coach, that was charged with helping batters hit major league pitching better. Do y’all think that would fly for Tito and the Front Office to spend money on? Like, say a “Hitting Coach”? I know, it’s a WILD idea… Le sigh.
I did notice that Matt around the middle of the year kept chasing that outside ball
At this point, McLain is likely untradeable, except as a throw-in in a larger deal with a team willing to take a gamble, or perhaps with a team swapping underperforming young players who were once promising prospects.
The Reds have no real need to keep McLain, given IF options, except to double down on their investment in him.
Which they should do, in my opinion, but with a clear timetable and the willingness to make some tough decisions.
He looked miserable at the plate in 2025, often displaying poor pitch recognition, and often an inexplicable selection of pitches that he swung at.
Sometimes he looked good at the plate, but not often.
He hit double digit HRs and 2bs, so the shoulder-injury-sapping power might not be as big an issue as suspected.
I would hope he has a strong ST 2026 and carries on.
Marte had a horrific 2024…for altogether different reasons, but came to ST 2025 and began to turn things around.
Arroyo had shoulder surgery as well and took some time to get his hitting stroke back in MiLB.
No two injuries are the same or effect players the same.
ST 2026 is McLain’s opportunity. If his struggles continue, send him to AAA to work on things, there’s no call to give up on him after his 2025 struggles.
If he’s improving, give him a couple months to get it going.
If he’s doing well, great. If not back to AAA.
No reason to act hastily.
A big difference for McLain from the 2023 season is that he was 94th percentile then for launch angle sweet spot but 43rd percentile this year. In other words, more pop ups and fly balls and fewer line drives and ground balls, which is not a good combination if you’re not flying the ball out of the park like he was in 2023. He will take a big step forward if he learns to lay off the high fastball, which absolutely killed him this year and led to a lot of whiffs and fly ball outs.
Re: “A big difference for McLain from the 2023 season is that he was 94th percentile then for launch angle sweet spot but 43rd percentile this year. In other words, more pop ups and fly balls and fewer line drives and ground balls
We have a winner! Awesome observation, this is likely the key to McLain again becoming a productive hitter.
As Doug stated in the original article, the .385 BABIP in 2023 is not maintainable, and thus it’s obvious that a his production would fall off from his awesome 2023 numbers (.864 OPS). The fall off should not have been the complete collapse in production we saw in 2025 (.643 OPS) however. I believe that the projection systems did a pretty good job projecting his 2025 output to be right about the .800 OPS mark.
While McLain’s EV only dipped from 89.3 to 88.8 from his previous season, his LA increased from 13.8 to 16.3 which resulted in his LA Sweet Spot % dropping from 39.6 to 34 and his Barrel % from 10.8 to 7.7. The net result was that his LD% went from 27.2 to 21.4, while his FB% increased from 26.4 to 30.0 and his PU% increased from 6.4 to 8.9.
Also of note was that the league began adjusting to him as the % of Sliders he saw increased from 14.7 to 21.3.
It really appears that McLain can return to form, that being the about the .800 OPS mark and not the BABIP aided .864 mark, by solving the LA issue that resulted in him getting under the ball way more often resulting in more outs. Not sure whether this issue was caused by the injury, the layoff, the need to adjust back to MLB pitchers, or all/some of the above, but it seems that it could be correctable.
I believe there is a very good chance that McLain has a big bounce back season next year.
McLain has absolutely atrocious pitch and zone recognition. That has nothing to do with injury. He was the biggest disappointment in 2025. I sure hope he’s pushed by competition to get better offensively. His numbers were terrible and his road numbers, .193 average and .550 ops were downright awful. He won’t be a starter in this league long without tremendous improvement.
You vastly underestimate the effect of missing an entire season due to injury. That absolutely can affect pitch and zone recongnition. Major league pitchers are great. Going an entire season without seeing those pitches is a much bigger deal than you give credit.
I’d like to see some evidence of a shoulder injury affecting pitch recognition. I don’t even think Dr. Reddit B. Google would suggest that.
Pitch recognition is a visual and brain function. If a shoulder injury affects the eye or optic nerve and the brain, I may have to start wondering whether my hip replacement caused me to need a new prescription for my glasses.
I think that Luke–and he can correct me if I’m wrong–was saying that missing a season was the cause of McLain’s difficulty, not the injury.
Conversely, I have circumstantial evidence that my double knee replacement negatively impacted my previously enviable memory.
Any hand-eye coordination-based skill atrophies without consistent repetition. I can see good logic for McLain’s pitch recognition (a very demanding hand-eye coordination skill) deteriorating with a lost season. I’m not sure I can understand why his pitch recognition skill level didn’t show improvement across a long season. That’s the part that concerns me with McLain. As noted elsewhere, it must be mentally grueling to have a slow start, even if the slow start is expected. Hopefully, he just fell into the trap of pressing as the season wore on.
Not sure if McLain’s pitch recognition differed much between 2023 and 2025. His strike out rate similarity would support that. I seem to remember he liked the high fast ball in 2023. Apparently he could reach it and drive it in 2023, but not in 2024, which may be shoulder related. Also, he always looks like he lets the ball travel far before swinging, which probably requires great bat speed, which again may be shoulder related. I’m sure sttruggling at the plate feeds on itself too. If his shoulder repair resulted in some lasting structural change, he will have to make the appropriate adjustments. Certainly hope he figures it out.
I thought the Reds penciling him in as a starter and assuming he would pick right up where he left off was another bad misfire from this front office. The same goes for CES. I am hoping they try to go with guys with a proven track record next year. I have yet to see Krall build a complete roster with no glaring needs at the beginning of the season. You cannot expect a guy to play half a season in the bigs, tear his shoulder miss an entire year, then come right back the following year and be successful.
That being said, I still wouldn’t be surprised id McClain has a better year next season. I think the kid can play, he needs to make adjustments and work this offseason.
Gotta agree. I have never seen a player take more called strikes that were right down the middle of the pipe. He did not strike fear into the heart of any pitcher, as far as I could see.
Players taking pitches right down the middle of the plate?
See Stephenson, Tyler
Dela Cruz, Elly.
I am a MM fan, but he really hurt the Reds offense this year. Poor average, struck out alot and seemed to kill alot of rallies. I am for packaging him in a deal to clear a roster spot. We have some players in the minors that are very close to MLB ready.
I also have a feeling MM will not be very durable.
To me, the key difference of good MM and not so good MM lies in his lead foot. Good MM has a lead foot landing in the direction towards the pitcher where not so good MM has a lead foot that is landing in a too open position towards the SS to 5.5 hole. When MM is hitting well, he hits a lot of balls up the middle and to right-center with authority. A lot of his Ks come on the slider or sweeper. He starts with an open stance, but imo, does not close the front foot enough to bring it back towards the pitcher. Just one man’s opinion
This!!!! I noticed the same thing, thought he was too pull happy as well.
Yeah, I think you’re onto something here. Film nerds… go!
In the end he had no power at all to center or right. Whether a change in stance was part of the problem, or just his way of trying to cope with the injury, I dunno. Chickens and eggs.
It was brutal to watch the “not in play” stuff, but I’m willing to give him a full offseason and see what 2026 brings. I don’t want to trade him for peanuts. I would like to see him (to channel Cowboy) adjust how far he stands from the plate. Perhaps that would help his pitch recognition on those so far low and away.
Great article again, Doug.
Here’s my final offering of +3,863,219 for you and the RLN team.
I suppose it’s a very fine line between a .220 hitter and a .280 hitter but most of what I saw with McLain was that he started many of his at-bats taking a strike, and he did that often enough that it seemed he had an 0-1 count on him before he left the on-deck circle. That’s not about his shoulder or his BABIP. That’s a conscious effort. Of course, just swinging at the first pitch isn’t a great idea, but if a pitcher has that info, he’s a fool not to exploit it.
I noticed the same thing and if an old dude like me notices that, every other scouting department did too. ML pitchers usually have good enough control to throw a first pitch FB for a strike at a high rate. Two pitches he absolutely could not hit: high FB and low and away slider. Not sure if this was due to shoulder injury. As for 2026, if it looks like 2026 is going to be a repeat after 100 ABs they cannot keep him in the lineup. Certainly not in #2 hole as he spent most of the first half.
He may get 150 ABs, which gets to mid-May and warmer weather, but, yeah, it’s weeks, not months, to avoid a big change in the lineup and roles.
Interesting that his K rate was so similar. It felt like he struck out all the time.
He has to learn how to lay off or fight off sliders and sweepers. The Reds just can’t have two outs in the line up (McLain and Hayes)with the other players they currently have.
Some of hitting is confidence. He lost that this year. Time in AAA, or a huge spring training might afford him a chance to get that back and get out of his 2025 funk. And he is another 6 months away from surgery too so if it is physical, that should not be an issue in 2026.
I would not give up on him, but I wouldn’t give him near the leash he had this year.
Still predicting a big year for him next year. He is a gamer. He works hard, hustles, and keeps a good attitude. That being said, he still has to prove himself next year.
A strong bounceback is certainly within the realm of the possible. It’s gotta be tough as a player to ignore a poor start and not try to make up for it as the season progresses, and in baseball, pressing usually results in bad outcomes.
“Baseball is 90 per cent mental. The other half is physical.”
🙂
I think Matt McLain will hit better in 2026, but I don’t know how much better. The Reds have options at second base, not great options, but they have Lux, perhaps Sal Stewart (I know he hasn’t played 2B much), Spencer Steer (although I know he is probably not a real option either) Francisco Urbaez, Espinal Santiago, Edwin Arroyo and let’s not forget about Tyler Callihan. Again, not any really great options. I think McLain is probably their best option, but who knows if he bounces back? If he doesn’t, they can try one of the other options.
Yep, I think they should go with McLain, but keep Lux/Steer as their 2026 backup plan with Arroyo likely available thereafter.
What are the Vegas odds that we get an inked CBA without any delay to Spring Training or the regular season?
Pretty good for 2026–the CBA doesn’t expire until after the 2026 season. Don’t hold your breath in 2027.
We can always watch minor leagues in 2027.
Are you sure about that? Because minor league players are now a part of the MLBPA. That’s never been the case before. So I truly do not know how things would go this time around if there were a strike and or lockout or no CBA.
If somehow the entire 2027 season is canceled without even any minor leagues to watch then that could very well be the end of baseball as we know it. Fans will give up. I highly recommend that the players and owners get together and work out something so that doesn’t happen no matter which side is more at fault. Both have MUCH to lose.
I would be incredibly surprised if the minor leaguers played during a lockout/strike.
I think you’re right, Melvin. Baseball is already struggling to attract young fans, apparently, and if it disappears for a season they–and some older fans as well–are likely to discover that there are other things to occupy their time and interest. I’m pretty sure that the last strike set it back for quite a while. It’s hard for some people–like me–to care about a food fight with billionaires on one side and millionaires on the other. A pox on everybody’s house.
I checked in with someone who specializes in writing about this kind of stuff (Marc Normandin of Baseball Prospectus, Fox Sports, and his own newsletter that’s mostly about labor-related things within baseball) and he told me the following about whether the minor leagues (but not 40-man players who are technically “big leaguers” even if they are in the minor leagues) would be played if there is a strike/lockout in 2027:
“My understanding is that they’re under the same umbrella, not the same membership even if they have to work together and chart a future together, so just the affected players are locked out. However if negotiations extend into 2027 then the bargaining periods for the two CBAs overlap.
More important right now is that there is a no strike *and* no lockout provision in the existing MiLB CBA, so this time around nothing would change.”
Good to know, thanks, Doug.
Thanks Doug. Interesting.
Not sure of the Vegas odds. But I predict a zero % chance that 2027 season starts on time. The players are led by billionaires that don’t understand the CBA doesn’t work for vast majority of them and most of the owners are fed up with the current structure.
2027 is going to be a wasted season. It will be interesting how it impacts this years free agent spend. It could severely dampen it. And many clubs’ TV deals are structured around waiting to see what a new CBA looks like. It’s a shame because overall baseball viewership climbed this year.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2025/10/03/mlb-network-continues-trend-of-mlb-viewership-increases-in-2025/
“….CBA doesn’t work for (the) vast majority of them (players)……”
I believe it is a misnomer to say the CBA doesn’t work for a “vast majority” of the players. They are not complaining about the minimum salary, salaries being guaranteed, and fringes like players receiving “free” medical insurance for life after a single game on an MLB active roster.
Where many middle and bottom tiers of players would diverge from MLBPA’s current stance is that they would accept a salary cap that includes a set team floor based on a percentage of the cap level, along with a specific percentage of MLB revenue dedicated to the salary pool.
Players would also like to see quicker access to salary bargaining power by lowering the threshold to arbitration eligibility or dumping arbitration as it now exists in favor of restricted free agency, also with a shorter access path. This path would probably be based at least partially on age and/or minor league service time, or possibly starting the MLB service time clock when a player is elevated to a 40-man roster for the first time.
Be like the weatherman and always include a 1% chance. That way you can’t be wrong!
I think patience is needed with Matt McLain, and that 2026 will see his full recovery from injury. A rush to judgement could see a repeat of the early exit saga of Eugenio Suarez from the Reds.
“When people can’t access it easily they learn to live without it and that’s never what you want.”
Ever since Reds game were removed from YoutubeTV, I have barely been able to watch games. I only catch those on FS1 or ESPN. I despise Bally Sports and FanDuel as companies, so I won’t give them money. After Phil’s 2022 opening day mess, I haven’t paid for a ticket either. I want to watch, to follow, to root for the players, but it’s getting more and more difficult to be a fan. I am learning to live with this.
Mclain will be an all star next year and maybe the best 2nd
baseman in baseball. He will be the leader on a team that wlll be playing in the World Series next year.
I like the idea here but I have about the same odds of landing a date with Sydney Sweeney as all of these things happening. Speaking of which does anyone know how to get in touch with her?
Yes, but I’m not telling.
I mentioned this two years ago about McClain stating that he was probably the most likely red to regress. I bet 2024 would have looked relatively similar, maybe with more power, to this year.
I think Matt is most likely a 730ish OPS 2nd baseman, which in the Grand scheme of things is reasonable enough. It would put him just outside the top 10 qualifying 2nd basement this year, although only 18 2nd basement qualified for the batting title.
While I am a big McClain fan Reds can not afford to continue to put players on the field who are struggling unless it’s just a normal slump all players go through. Not if we want to have more than an outside chance at making the final wild card. Team is not built for depth, at least not in the hitting dept. They need to keep him on a short leash IMO. If the Reds don’t make a needle moving trade or two and or FA then 26 will be another wasted year of Elly and fan patience. 27 of course is negotiations for new CBA. That will probably eat up a good portion if not all of the season. Only hope is that if it can fix the insane gap between the hav’s and have nots with some kind of cap and floor so the Reds might actually be able to compete instead of always relying on luck/hope, players being healthy and guys like McClain bouncing back in a meaningful way.
I well overestimated what McLain would do last season, but I think people are well underestimating what he’ll do this season.
He’s a first round draft pick that did everything you want in the minors, and in his 1st season in the majors.
I don’t think that you can use his recovery from injury as a magic wand to wave off 2025, but he’s a MLBer, and likely a very good one. Lets hope he returns to form in 2026. If not Arroyo will likely be on his tail.