To say that things didn’t go well for the Cincinnati Reds last night would be an understatement. Their best pitcher – the one with a 2.76 ERA over the last two seasons and 250+ inning – laid an egg. Hunter Greene gave up a leadoff home run to Shohei Ohtani and then two more later in the game as he was charged with five runs in just 3.0 innings. It was 8-0 before the Reds would score their first run of the game and while they would go on to score five runs, the game was never close nor was it ever in doubt.
Tonight the Reds will be back in Los Angeles hoping to pick up a win over the Dodgers and keep their offseason plans pushed off a little bit longer. A loss would send them home until next February when it’s time to show up for spring training in Goodyear. A win would keep them alive for at least one more day and force a winner-takes-the-series game three on Thursday night.
The Reds are going to send right-handed pitcher Zack Littell to the mound in a do-or-die game. And this matchup in this stadium might be about as bad as it gets for Littell. He’s given up 36 home runs this season – second most in the majors. And he’s facing a team that had five guys hit 20 home runs, and another guy with 19 who only played in 100 games. Only the Yankees hit more homers in 2025 than the Dodgers. Oh yeah, and the game is being played in the ballpark that boosts home runs more than any other ballpark in baseball over the last three seasons according toe Baseball Savant’s park factors.
None of that bodes well for Cincinnati. Neither does the fact that in seven games against the Dodgers this season they have one win. Nor does the fact that in this best-of-three wild card format that 10 of the 12 series wound up being sweeps and that all 12 of the series were won by the team who won the first game.
But hey – every streak eventually comes to an end. The Reds have lost seven straight playoff games. They haven’t won a home playoff game since 1995. And the only way either of those streaks end this year is if they can win tonight (and keep winning). Cincinnati needs to win two games in a row. That’s may feel like some unthinkable, impossible scenario after watching what happened last night. But it’s really not. The Reds aren’t as good as the Dodgers are. But bad teams beat good teams twice in a row all of the time. And the Reds aren’t bad. They just aren’t exactly good, either.
The Dodgers let the Reds in the game and the Reds couldn’t capitalize. Stephenson swinging at ball 4 three different times. Had to pinch hit Benson for Hayes. Time was running out. If Littel runs into problems tonight, there needs to be someone in the bullpen ready to go. Stewart starts at 3rd base tonight. All Hayes is good for is a 2 hopper to an infielder or a lazy pop fly. There is no tomorrow without a win tonight, play like it, manage like it.
On paper it doesn’t look good but that’s why they play the games. Good write up, Doug.
I agree completely TJ. Tyler Stephenson’s at bat was a key moment. If he takes that walk, especially on the third ball four – in the dirt – then it’s 10-6 with one out and the bases loaded and Will Benson up as the tying run. Instead he struck out and effectively ended the rally and the game. As for tonight, I’d rather see Nick Martinez or Nick Lodolo or even Andrew Abbott on short rest than Littell. But they don’t play on paper and maybe the Zach will be solid and the Reds bats will shine. I’ll certainly be watching and rooting. Go Reds!
On a different note, baseball has a huge problem that has rarely been more evident than in this series. The Dodgers have a payroll that is almost exactly TRIPLE the Reds payroll. They have bought their way to the postseason for 13 straight seasons, while this is the Reds first full season playoff appearance since 2013. And in that time the Dodgers have WON 64 games (65 as of last night) and the Reds (and Angels) have won… none. That is simply not good for the sport, not a sign of healthy competition, and not sustainable in the long run. I don’t claim to have the answers to this imbalance, but I do know it needs to change. The Globetrotters vs the Generals was good fun, but nobody took it seriously as real competition. This situation is only slightly better.
I’ll still be rooting for the Reds tonight. Occasional short term success is better than none at all. But it’s not nearly as fun when it’s not a fair fight.
The billion dollar question. Will it be answered in the next CBA?
Can’t say I agree with you. I hate the Dodgers, but the payroll factor is an excuse for what has happened in the game for years and years; and not just baseball. The Reds had a dynasty in the 70’s and it wasn’t bad for baseball. The Braves in the 90’s. The Mets had the 2nd highest payroll and they are watching all this on TV. The Angels have spent tons of money over the last decade plus, but they still stink. The Brewers spend very little money and they have been dominant for years now. Sure money helps, but bad decisions by management of baseball teams is a much bigger factor.
Agree. I hope the players aren’t whining about payrolls right now. That mindset guarantees a loss before the game begins.
Why should it be “fair”? The Dodgers run a better business and have for the last 30 years and as a result of that have made a lot more money. Do they have some built in advantages? Of course they do. But the Reds have sucked forever because they have been run by people who suck at their jobs not because they didn’t spend as much money as the Dodgers.
Before Elly De La Cruz who was the last position player born outside of the draft eligible countries the Reds produced who was even a starter, much less a good player? That isn’t a result of the Reds not having money to spend. That’s a problem that goes back 50 years. Outside of Johnny Cueto who was the last starting pitcher the Reds developed who was not from one of the draft eligible countries?
Who spent $30M on the trio of Vladimir Gutierrez, Jose Barrero, and Alfredo Rodriguez on the international free agent signings?
Who decided to go through multiple rebuilds and get nothing from it?
Money has helped the Dodgers but most of the bad teams in baseball are just bad because the people making the decisions are not good at their jobs. The players shouldn’t have their wages limited because the front office and ownership class sucks.
While I agree the Red’s ownership is not the best, it is disingenuous at best to say the Dodgers just have a better business model. They have a better business model because their market is 25 times larger than Cincinnati. That is a built in advantage that very few teams can match. So if want to argue it’s the survival of the fittest then fine, but please spare us BS about business models.
I would argue that their business model of hiring competent people throughout their organization to better inform signing players, developing players, etc. is a lot better than the one that the Reds employ where their current POBO has been in the organization for 20+ years and their current GM for 15+ years and well, we’ve seen what the organization has done in that time frame. The Reds are not exactly a serious organization. They run their business like it’s a local grocery store – hiring from within and never truly looking outside for the top decision makers in the organization.
Who has this ownership hired to run the organization since they bought it? A friend in Walt Jocketty who was run out of his previous job because he wasn’t willing to adapt to the new times in the sport, one of the owners kids, and a guy who has been around since 2002. Oh and the current #2 in the organization – Brad Meador…. where did he come from? He was a coach and recruiter at…. the University of Cincinnati.
Let’s go back a few years. In the 2010’s the club had two different farm system directors who went to Haverford College. What are the odds that the two most qualified people for that job both attended the same school you’ve never heard of in your life?
So you are going to have to spare me for not buying into the idea that the Reds business model doesn’t suck and hasn’t cost them a whole lot. Had they actually put more qualified people in place all throughout the organization they probably would have won more games, sold more tickets, more ads, had better tv deals, and won a lot more ball games because they would have had more money to spend on better players.
Brian– excellent points you make. I have been screaming about this for years now. You can’t just blame everything on money… the Reds have failed tremendously on these levels for years. Ownership ignoring these deficiencies will never drag this organization out of its perpetual, self-created hole. The cycle will simply continue and we as fans are expected to get “excited” about an 84 win season every few years.
Perfect example of the Reds kicking themselves in the balls:
Their top prospect is a third baseman. So what do they do at the trade deadline? They trade for a third baseman who has a chronic back problem, can’t hit the ball out of a wet paper bag, and is owed $30M over the next five years.
Nick Martinez. Candelario. Moustakas.
It’s not an issue of not having or not spending the money. It’s that when they do spend it they are just really stupid.
“Why should it be “fair”?”
That’s easy … because games are more interesting when the participants compete from a level playing field. There is a reason revenue growth among the other major pro sports leagues has outpaced MLB’s revenue growth for the last decade. For example, NBA revenue will pass MLB this season for the first time.
“The Dodgers run a better business and have for the last 30 years, and as a result of that have made a lot more money.”
Partially true. The Dodgers are currently doing a great job of leveraging their advantages, particularly in their ability to corner MLB’s Japanese market. Keep in mind that Los Angeles has by far the most Japanese citizens and is the most visited mainland city by Japanese in the United States.
In 2011, they filed for bankruptcy–so, they have not always been well run and flush with money.
“Money has helped the Dodgers”
You should have stopped there.
“but most of the bad teams in baseball are just bad because the people making the decisions are not good at their jobs.”
Here is the free agents that the Dodgers had for their starting rotation. It doesn’t include homegrown talent. This group alone would make any front office look brilliant:
1. Blake Snell (2-time Cy Young winner, 25+ career WAR)
2. Yamamota (5.0 bWAR)
3. Tyler Glasnow (career sub 4 ERA)
4. Clayton Kershaw (3-time Cy Young award winner, 80+ career WAR)
5. Sasaki (most coveted international free agent in the 2024-25 offseason)
6. Ohtani (16+ career WAR as a pitcher)
“The players shouldn’t have their wages limited because the front office and ownership class sucks.”
Classic strawman fallacy. NFL and NBA player salaries are directly tied to league revenues. Once again, both leagues’ revenues have grown at a higher rate than MLB and their players’ salaries have grown faster than MLB’s players. MLBPA has had a significant part in getting MLB to this point and needs to explain why they are closed to considering industry CBA models that have produced better outcomes for players in other leagues.
“ The Reds are not exactly a serious organization. They run their business like it’s a local grocery store”
Then why are you wasting your time following the Reds Brian? If the organization sucks so bad, then why even post here? Go to a Dodgers’ forum, jump on their bandwagon and pat yourself on the back for being so insightful. Because what you are doing here now borders on trolling.
Votto4life – it’s not trolling to simply point out that the Cincinnati Reds haven’t expanded their hiring practices for front office jobs beyond friends and family for the last 25 years or that they’ve spent money very poorly quite often or that they’ve signed and developed one international pitcher and hitter that wasn’t already an established Cuban professional for the last 50 years.
I wish I didn’t waste my time with this organization but given how sports fandom tends to work you usually root for the team as a child that’s from the town closest to you and now here I am 30 something years later still doing it because that just fandom my dude. I can be a fan and also understand that the team I’m a fan of is being run poorly and has been for a very long time. It doesn’t mean I don’t root for them to win. I want them to win.
Go get you a beer and chill out man.
I’m pretty sure coming into a team’s fan group, writing paragraph after paragraph trashing that team to get a reaction is pretty much the definition of trolling.
I don’t drink and I don’t need to “chill”. I will spend the evening rooting for my favorite team in the playoffs. It’s something actual fans do.
I know the Reds making the postseason is something you can’t even comprehend. But don’t worry, I suppose the Reds will probably lose at some point and then you can feel vindicated and can pat yourself on the back.
IF you think Brian is trolling then you’ve lived a life on the internet that I envy because you’ve never seen actual trolling on the internet. Brian also noted he’s a Reds fan and wants them to win and roots for them do to so. He just thinks that the organization is run quite poorly. All of those things can be true.
Haverford College is an excellent school, with a 12% acceptance rate and a SAT range of 1460-1550. It ranks a hair better in SATs than Tulane, where the Dodgers’ Andrew Friedman went. Your never having heard of it says more about you than it does Haverford.
I’m not saying the Reds were well managed from 2008 to about 2020, but they work under much tighter constraints than the Yankees, Dodgers, etc.; the collapse of the regional sports network model has not helped. The Reds are managing that issue better than both the Rangers and the Twins.
The Dodgers’ strength, on top of having the cash, is development, or at least the perception of development. They actually have few home-grown stars (Kershaw, Pages and Will Smith), but they’ve traded a lot of prospects to make good trades for established players (Betts and Glasnow, for example). I’ll challenge you to identify many of the traded Dodger prospects who have actually developed into stars.
They tend to “win” the trades, like Ryan Pepiot for Glasnow, because they deal with teams that simply can’t afford to resign the star, and the Dodgers can.
They also have a virtual lock for cultural reasons on Japanese stars, with Ohtani, Yamamoto and (the much ballyhooed but so far dubious Roki Sasaki). Cincinnati and even the big east coast teams can’t match that.
The free agents include Freeman (6yr/$162mm), Ohtani ($700mm), Yamamoto (11/$315mm), Teoscar Hernandez (4/$85mm), and Snell (5/$136mm); even the dubious Edman (5/$56mm) and Conforto ($17mm); plus relievers Yates ($13mm), Tanner Scott (4/$72mm) and Trienen (2/$22).
They are well managed, but the bottom line is that money talks, and the Dodgers have more than anyone else.
This isn’t the NFL, where small markets like the Chief, Packers, Steelers and Ravens can consistently be good, whereas the Jets, Giants, and Cowboys pretty much always stink, even with higher revenues. It’s a flaw in baseball’s business model that wealthy teams compete every year, but other teams have to hope for “competitive windows” between rebuilds.
He also said “ I wish I didn’t waste my time with this organization”
On that issue we are both in full agreement.
It would just be nice while the Reds are in the playoffs, which hasn’t happened in a full season for a dozen years, that people wouldn’t come on here and trash the team. They have the whole off season to do that.
Take a wider look. Five of the 12 playoff teams rank in the bottom half of MLB payrolls, and each of those teams’ payrolls are less than half of the Mets and Dodgers. The gigantic payroll of the Mets was flushed down the john. The Brewers had the best record in the NL and a lighter budget than the Reds. The postseason just started 24 hours ago. Please spare us the payroll tears.
Your point is well taken: mismanaged wealth does not necessarily lead to success. But wealth clearly provides an advantage in signing and paying the Ogtanis, Judges and Schwarbers of the world.
Not to mention, the Dodgers have arguably the best minor league system in the majors; much better than the Reds. That’s not a money issue; that’s a competency issue.
@Chris, it’s both. The Dodgers reportedly have the largest analytics staff in MLB–that’s another byproduct of their financial advantage.
I mean to look at the Reds’ and Dodgers’ financial situations and somehow conclude that the differences don’t give the Dodgers an enormous competitive advantage demonstrates a lack of objectivity. I’ve always found it curious as to why so many Red’s fans will defend this broken system. Why so much sympathy for teams like the Dodgers when their advantages clearly hurt your hometown team?
@BK well said as always.
All the owners could spend more. The only thing that bothers me some about the Dodgers is the ability to defer so much of Ohtani’s salary. That seems a bit unfair, but I won’t cry tears for the Castellini way. The Brewers and Guardians, as everyone knows, must have excellent front office staff.
I don’t see any “sympathy for the Dodgers.” Respect, yes, because they use their finances well. The Mets had a higher payroll, which tells us money isn’t everything. Yeah, it can help, but only with proper stewardship. And when you think about history, the Dodgers have a long history of winning that started long before payrolls were a thing.
But really, why is this even a discussion on the day of a playoff game? Just go win.
The guys saying that money doesnt matter are just silly. If every single year you have zero chance of signing the ten best available free agents, do you think that might matter. If we had the Dodgers most expensive player on our team, would the Reds odds be better or worse? It’s as easy to understand as that. How many players on the dodgers make more than the highest paid player on the Reds? Are they any good? What’s their WAR. It’s preposterous to say that the additional money matters very little. It highlights how pathetic and embarrassing the Mets season was. Heads should roll in a situation like that.
Again, no one said money doesn’t matter. You’re moving words around in an attempt to make other opinions look silly. Just stick with facts, man. The Dodgers have a great organization. You keep comparing them to the Reds. The Reds are not, and never have been, a great organization. So, how about comparing the Brewers and Reds? Why can’t the Reds overcome the Brewers and their lower budget?
And the fact is, without twisting anyone’s words, the Dodgers are the #3 seed in the NL, behind two teams with lower payrolls. Toronto finished ahead of the Yankees. The Rangers, Astros, and Braves (6, 7, 8) didn’t make the postseason. So, there’s more to winning than money.
Another fact: the Dodgers were ahead of the curve 60+ years ago when they signed Black players and Latinos. They draft well. They trade well. They scout well. They develop well. Hard as it might be to admit, they’ve been winners for longer than I’ve been alive. Give ’em credit.
To those complimenting the Dodgers FO, I find that extremely hilarious.
Must be nice to sign huge underperformers like Tanner Scott ($13M for -0.6 WAR), Conforto ($17M for -0.7 WAR), and Blake Treinen ($8.5M for -0.6 WAR) yet no one notices because you have a billion dollar war chest to shop at the high end of the free agent market.
That’s some front office there LOL.
Everyone also raves about their scouting and development. The three main home-grown players on this team are Kershaw, Pages and Will Smith. The rest of the team was bought.
I looked earlier this year, and I didn’t find any traded Dodger prospect who has become a star for the team to which he was traded. There are some decent guys, like Lux, but I didn’t find a real standout, although maybe I missed someone.
I’ve said for years, “Never trade for a Yankees prospect; they are always overrated.” The Dodgers are getting that way, too.
Littell has not faced the Dodgers in at least 3 years. I predict that Tito will let Littell pitch through the Dodgers’ order once, to take advantage of their not having any meaningful experience against him. He will then bring in Lodolo to face Ohtani the second time through the order. Ohtani is 1-6 against Lodolo this season, with a single and 3 strikeouts.
Sounds like a plausible scenario. Lodolo’s last appearance amounted to a short bullpen that starters normally do between starts anyway, although more intense. But he should be very capable of pitching today, and very likely too.
The reason we are in the playoffs is because of our starting pitching and if it isn’t at or near shuout quality we are going to have trouble winning. I have trouble watching our games because of the lack of even being able to make hard contact. The other teams defense don’t even have to work to get outs with our soft or no contact. The Dodgers bullpen gave us three runs late when the game was long decided. I saw several times yesterday when the other playoff teams sacrificed to get men into scoring position to score runs which we rarely ever do. Detroit even bunted in the winning run. With our lack of power and difficulty scoring runs I’m baffled by Francona’s lack of moving runners over or even stealing attempts. We are a small ball team whether he accepts it or not. It should be obvious in a game Iike yesterday when you get out homered 5-0.
Agree. Tito overcorrected in the running department.
One question. Why do none of our pitchers throw inside? All of those hitters for L A act like they are hitting in a batting cage. Could we at least make them uncomfortable once in a while? You think Gibson would sit back and just throw pitches over the plate? Showing my age but still.
Per the Gameday pitch by pitch, Greene started Ohtani off with a heater (101+) in on his hands for ball 1.
He then did not get a friendly call on a slider at the knees on the inner third, but did get the call on a heater just a tick higher in the same horizontal position on pitch 3 with a 99.4 heater.
The fateful pitch 4 was clearly a mistake pitch, probably in selection and certainly in execution, another heater (100.4), but belt high on the inner third of the plate.
I understand not wanting to walk Ohtani to start the game, but the home run pitch needed to be a chase pitch. Show him high heat, the splitter, or try to wrap a slider around his ankles.
You need to take ownership of the plate. Knock a few batters down.
“Pitching is the art of instilling fear.”
-Sandy Koufax
The only one scared last night was Hunter.
That was a very uncomfortable pitch that Phillips threw to Mookie Betts.
should have happened earlier.
So one pitch? Not enough. Make Ohtani uncomfortable, period, A walk is better than a homer
They can show up. But will they? I’d like to think yes. Realistically though, I doubt the money is flowing in that direction. I still want to see the Dodgers sent home, but maybe I have to rely on a different team to do that.
The Reds are certainly capable of beating the Dodgers on consecutive nights.
I wanna see Kike Hernandez sent home. Criminy, is there a player past or present with a wider disparity between the regular season (.621 OPS) and the postseason (.880)?!?
Apparently, being in a rocking chair spot is more comfortable in the post-season.
Yeah, I’m thinkin’ the same thing. I’m hoping Detroit sends the Guardians home today; that would make me happy.
I think the Reds will play better than last night, but I’d be somewhat shocked if they win Game 2. Will be good to see De La Cruz get some at bats from the Left side.
Still slightly optimistic about tonight, but we are trying to slay a dragon. We’ve done it, but it’s never easy.
Hoping for the best; preparing for that dry spell between the last game and the start of the Hot Stove.
The David and Goliath story line is easier to swallow. We’ll have to slay two Goliaths, though, to move on. The Good Book doesn’t mention that ever happening.
“Unthinkable”?? “Impossible”?? Yeah that sounds about right.
Reds have ended some negative streaks this year… Not winning a series after losing the opener streak was ended. 12-year not going to the playoff in a full season ended. 3-year not winning a series against Brewers is over. A game without struckout by Reds hitters also was broken…and maybe others I don’t remember right now. So hopefully , they can stop the not winning a playoff game since 2012 tonight and not winning a playoff series since 1995 tomorrow
We can second guess the manager and blame the players on the roster but the fact remains that the GM constructs the roster and they dont have the horses to win the race this year. I am enjoying it for what it is.
Hunter Greene may end up as the best pitcher in the game, but he is not a big game pitcher right now. The last time he putched in L.A was awful too. I love the kid, his professionalism is beyond his years. They said the same thing about Cueto after the Pittsburgh WC game fiasco and he ended up being integral in KC winning a ring later on. HG has the time and stuff to do it.
Hayes is 3 for his last 41? I cannot wrap my head around him being in the lineup for the next 4 years (into his mid 30s) and being paid 30 million dollars. Him and Candelario will be paid 22 million dollars next year lol. You cant blame the ownership group for that, they pay someone to make those personnel decisions. 22 million could get a legit power hitting third basemen. For reference, Jose Ramirez is in a 7 year deal that averages 20 million a year.
Agree completely. KBH looked solid for a month, but unfortunately reality kicked in. I guess if you saw something on film and thought you could fix his swing, but if you’re that good then fix McLain, Steer, etc. Steer had a .606 ops on June 17.
Candelario was the same deal. 1B/DH wasn’t a need? I thought maybe they could make it work if he put up a decent season like 2023, but he was horrible. Bottom line is their lineup isn’t nearly deep enough to carry a regular with a borderline .600 ops
I’m in the camp that believes McClain will bounce back next year. I expected him to struggle this year since he had to relearn his swing. I thought it was a mistake for the Reds to rely on him so heavily this season—it was just one of many question marks they carried into the year.
I was hoping the Reds could make a run at Suarez next season, but the 22 million they are spending on Hayes and Candy’s contract negates that idea. Ive never seen a team need a power hitter worse than this one. Maybe the Cardinals before Jack Clark arrived in 85?
Cueto…Cueto…Cueto
Hayes is 3 for his last 41, yet he starts in a must win instead of Benson. I know a lot of people on this site love Francona but his line up construction is almost Bell like. To make it even worse he does bench a struggling Marte but not Hayes, I just don’t get it.
He loves him some veterans. It’s such an old school approach to prioritize the pecking order, namely because it’s easily defensible when it doesn’t work and won’t cause dissention in the clubhouse. I mean, just look at the ruckus Aaron Boone caused by not starting Chisholm last night.
He may well favor veterans, Sultan, as do many managers, but he also evidently places a high value on defense and clean baseball. Many of us do not, I realize, but as strategy in this series, I wonder what we honestly think the Reds’ chances are of out- slugging the Dodgers , regardless of whom they(the Reds) put in the lineup? I will posit that Tito recognizes what an underdog his team is–and often was during the season–and feels that using any strength he has is a better bet than getting beaten trying to play someone else’s game. As an aside, I’m making so many typos (corrected, I hope) that I wonder if I’m a victim of demonic possession. If I am, and can talk to the fiends, I’ll try to get them to work some serious mischief on the wretched Dodgers.
This is what we call taking one for the team.
I didn’t know that Benson plays 3rd base.
Think how good it’s going to feel taking two in a row off these guys and sending them home for the winter. We’ll have knocked out the Mets and Dodgers and their insane payrolls and shocked the world. I’m almost glad we lost Game 1 because it’s going to feel that much better….
I like the way you think! Let’s go Reds — just do it!
I am in the same boat, I like Tito, but man I wish I could hear his reasoning about Hays…..he is completely lost…..