The Cincinnati Reds had a big day on Friday. They entered the day a game behind the New York Mets for the third and final wild card spot. And the Reds were also one game ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks. With three games remaining in the season those were the only three teams still alive in the playoff race.
The Mets were in Miami to take on the Marlins and their game began before the other team teams were able to take the field. New York grabbed an early 2-0 lead, but the Marlins stormed back and scored six runs in the bottom of the 5th inning and neither team would score the rest of the way. The loss dropped the Mets to 82-78 on the season.
That final meant that if Cincinnati could pick up a win that they would pull even with New York in the standings. To do so, though, they were going to have to come from behind as the Brewers took a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the 3rd inning. The Reds were up to the task, though. They tied the game up in the next inning and they took the lead in the 6th by scoring two runs. From there it was all bullpen, all the time, and neither team would score again as Cincinnati won to move to 82-78 and tie the Mets in the standings.
That tie, though, isn’t really a tie. Cincinnati owns the tiebreaker, which means that the Mets have to actually finish the season with more wins than the Reds in order to make the playoffs. Cincinnati just needs to simply be in a tie with the Mets, Diamondbacks, or both to secure a playoff spot.
Arizona was playing in San Diego and didn’t get started until both the Reds and the Mets games were already completed. The Diamondbacks scored a run in both the 1st and 3rd innings, but saw the Padres plate five runs in the 4th in large part to a Fernando Tatis Jr. grand slam with two outs. San Diego tacked on another run an inning later to make it 6-2. Arizona scored twice in the 8th and had the bases loaded but couldn’t add to it as Mason Miller stranded everyone. The Padres scored a run in the bottom of the inning and held on for a 7-4 win. The loss by the Diamondbacks eliminated them from the playoff race as the most they could do is finish tied with the Reds, and in that case they would lose the tiebreaker.
That leaves just the Reds and the Mets in the playoff race. A win by Cincinnati combined with a loss by New York would clinch a playoff spot for the Reds. However, a loss by Cincinnati on Saturday and a win by the Mets would still leave open a chance for the Reds. In that situation Cincinnati would need to win and have New York lose in order to make the playoffs.
Cincinnati will face off against the Brewers on FOX as the national game of the week at 7:15pm ET. Unfortunately if you are in the Columbus, Ohio area your local FOX station will not be carrying the game as the Cleveland Guardians game is being chosen by that affiliate.
The Mets play Miami earlier in the day. With a 4:10pm ET start the chances are good that the Reds will know if they can clinch or not by the time they take the field.
Incredible that the Reds would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.
The pressure on the Mets must be enormous now, as they were expected to sail into the playoffs with their $350m roster, while the Reds have no such expectations placed on them.
Hope that makes the Mets really start pressing as they play against a hot Marlins team with nothing to lose and I hope the Reds just play their game. It would be nice if the Reds clinch on Saturday instead of having it come down to the final day of the season.
Going to be interesting to see what the Brewers do with their pitching. Sounds like they are going to be throwing a bunch of different guys in there over the next two days to figure out who is available for the playoffs. Could be a good thing for the Reds if they get someone like Quintana or Megill coming back before they are ready.
Down on Myrtle Beach and I keep running into Reds fans. Love that the Reds control their own destiny. Go Reds!!!
Wow. Lindor opens the Mets game with a HR and I’m thinking here we go. The Marlins will have a letdown after just being eliminated, but Alcantara hung in there and the Mets pitching fell apart. Reds pitching was spectacular although my feelings on KBH/MM are well known. Why are they still starting? I also wonder why Andujar hasn’t DH’d more often? He only has the best batting average on the team with some power. Overall though…we beat Milw at home vs a starter that they’ve rode for 19 straight wins when he pitched. Thats crazy!
The problem the Reds still face though is the Phillies are challenging Milw for best record and they’ll probably sweep the Twins. My guess is Peralta goes against us on Sunday either way, but they definitely won’t push him hard if they’ve clinched already. Maybe 80 pitches?
We’ll have more info by gametime tomorrow:
Mets/Fish 4:10 start
Twins/Phillies 6:05
Reds 7:15
Miami starts Perez (2.63 home) and Cabrera (2.91 home) so we clinch if we win and Mets lose. If Twins upset Philly then Milw will have nothing to play for and will probably rest some guys on Sunday. If we lose the lead back and Milw has to start Peralta then we’re in deep doo doo on Sunday. Battle of lefties vs this Robert Gasser guy. I have a bad feeling, but I usually have a bad feeling with this team. When you think they’re in they’re out and vice versa. Sure Sal will start vs a lefty
The Brewers need a win, else they could lose home field advantage (and the potential gate money attendant thereto) for the NLCS.
If the Mets lose today, and if it were soccer, then the Brewers and Reds would agree to let the Reds win today and the Brewers win tomorrow. That would get someone indicted, so they won’t do that.
MLB does have the soccer style last day, though, with all games Sunday starting at 3:10 Eastern time.
I recall as recently as a decade or so ago, when I was closely following the Premier League (British top level soccer), that on the final day, they shut down the stadium WiFi systems, did not put out of town scores on the scoreboard, and did not allow phones or radios on the sidelines or press box. Sometimes the telecasts would show “fans” trying to pass slips of paper, presumably with scores on them, to the bench areas with stadium security hustling to intercept them.
The Brewers have tie breaker over the Phils. If the phils lose, the Crew has home field.
Would be good to see the Twins beat the Phils. Then the crew is just setting up for the playoffs.
(they still want to win, but resting player is good).
They have a bye…which is built in rest.
Other than the starting pitcher, I look for most of their team to play 6+ innings.
Looked at the current standings over at ESPN and they now have the Reds odds of making the playoffs better than the Mets. Reds are at 55% and Mets at 45%.
Even if the Reds clinch on Saturday, with the Mets still able to match the Reds’ win total on Sunday, the Fangraphs projections will probably show the Mets as having the higher probability of getting the spot 😉 😉 😉
LOL. Love it
haha would not be surprised at aii
That’s right, Jim. If we won the World Series, they’d still have our chances at four percent.
If all games were exactly 50% and you just flipped coins, our chances of making the playoffs would be 68.75%. So at 55% ESPN still hates our chances.
it’s mostly a matter of the brewers being a much better team than the marlins according to any projection system. I wouldn’t read too much into it.
Some very nice moves by Krall. Acquiring Andujar, Singer and Littel has had a very positive impact on this season.
I wouldn’t have bet a nickel this team would be in this position at the beginning of the year. They still have holes but they do compete. The team has earned this opportunity! I hope they get in the playoffs..
what is our lineup tomorrow, Lux is hot, but lefty on the mound, and we sure could use austin in left tomorrow…….
How good would the Reds be with a $332 million payroll? And how quick would the GM be fired if the team barely ended up over .500?
Idk how we’re favored over the Mets to make the playoffs when the Mets/Milw are both favored today? We face Peralta tomorrow. Idk? Tonight is our shot though. This lefty has only thrown 3 innings in 2025 so we’ll get alot of their pen.
Twins best chance to avoid a sweep in Philly was last night vs Nola. If they lost somehow then Milw would let up.
Mets/Miami game is Eury Perez 6’8 guy vs Clay Holmes. Holmes has been kind of mediocre and Perez didn’t make it out of the 1st vs the Mets on Aug 29 in NYC.
Perez has a 2.63 at home though. I really hope we clinch tonight because Peralta is nails and getting eliminated on Sunday would really suck
Indy, you bet, and I don’t. What are the odds that 2-4 for both the Reds and Mets in the last 6 take it for the Reds on the tiebreaker?
Pretty high lol
All-Star Jacob Misiorowski, who has slumped in the second half, is expected to follow Gasser tonight. MLBTradeRumors has a good article on the Brewer’s approach to these final two games:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/09/brewers-notes-misiorowski-megill-quintana.html
After the Reds won last night put them in a little advantage heading to today’s game. There are more scenarios favouring the Reds to clinch today or tomorrow. If Reds win out get in and even they are the only team could clinch today. Just win , Reds…
Power of the tiebreaker, never deny it. Now, come on, Reds, and put it to your advantage!
I guess Tito’s decision not to pitch Greene last night looks a lot better this morning despite all the hand wringing and criticism. I might argue, also in hindsight, perhaps the Reds did better at the trade deadline helping this team than the Mets. The Reds sure spent a lot less money yet here we are.
Greene was never gonna pitch lastnight!!!
He just pitched Wednesday, what are u even talking about?
If it were Greene’s regular day to throw between starts, they might have held off doing that before the game and sent him into the fray in a truly desperate situation. Such things have been done before. Thankfully, that bridge was never reached.
@ Jim Walker.
Tigers did that with Mickey Lolich, maybe 1968 vs St Louis in the WS.
Smart way to ruin a young pitcher.
There’s a big difference between between game throwing and max effort, playoff adrenaline type pitching.
There’s a big importance of yesterday’s game doesnt come close to that risk.
It wasn’t even an elimination scenario.
Getting your Ace hurt in that scenario is a fireable offense.
I love that the Marlins, with nothing to play for but pride, have lined up their three best starters for the Mets series. How about just getting it done tonight? Abbott with a gem, Sal Stewart and Miguel Andujar as the hitting heroes, and a Mets loss to clinch a playoff spot? I would be thrilled to watch a meaningless Reds game tomorrow! Just win. Go Reds!
This is the Marlins World Series, so I am it surprised at all that they planned for it and are playing the Mets tough. Having Andujar to face a LHP in a game of this magnitude tonight, we just need to appreciate Krall’s last minute trade deadline pick up. I am not sure Francona will play Stewart. Francona seems to roll with the veterans that got him here. So I expect pretty much same line up except for Benson in and Lux out.
I’d bring Andujar back next year, he can hit and he has a leadership vibe to me.
Best part is that the Reds can’t get eliminated today but the Mets can.
The Reds have a playoff capable starting staff that can hang in the playoffs.
If Reds finally make the post-season, who will they exclude from the roster? My guess is Maxwell on one hand and Stewart or Espinal on the other, unless Hays hits the IL.
I think it is wide open who the Reds would put on the playoff roster as the last position spot if A.Hays is put on the IL. Given Stewart’s infrequent use in the last week, they might opt to add a true outfielder such as Dunn or Hinds, even if that requires optioning Stewart to AAA. Either of these guys can legitimately play all three OF spots. Just as importantly, they are both 95th+ percentile sprinters who could make the difference on the bases as a pinch runner.
Has anyone seen or heard any reports about whether the Reds have potential injury replacement guys with the team on taxi status or working out daily as a group somewhere?
Back in the days of Fay, McCoy, even a younger C.Trent, and many before them, with A.Hays’ status in question, the beat guys would be all over this angle.
I’ve read articles from other teams that mention taxi squads traveling within their own teams. I cannot imagine the Reds not having a handful of 40-man roster players with the team so that roster adjustments can be made just before a game if necessary.
Personally, I would go with twelve pitchers in round one (rosters can be adjusted before each round). Hays would make my roster, if healthy. I would leave Singer off the first round roster as he likely won’t be available to pitch in the first three games after starting on Sunday. So, Maxwell likely makes the team unless they want to substitute a LHP for him.
I think you are correct that only the two September expansion slots are locked as 1 pitcher and 1 position. So, they could go with 14 position guys in 12 pitchers in the playoffs or even 11 pitchers and 15 position guys.
What I am clueless about is if they qualify a guy not on the MLB roster before Sept 1 by subbing him in for a guy still on the IL despite completing his minimum IL time, do they also have to option, send to the IL, or DFA a previously qualified active player as part of that transaction? This would presumably also apply to Stewart being qualified.
I’ve attached the rule from MLB’s glossary below.
1. Eligible players come from players on their 40-man roster or 60-day IL (provided they’ve been on the list at least 60 days) each round, provided the player was on the 40-man roster before noon ET, September 2. Thus, Stewart IS eligible as he was on the 40-man roster before noon ET on September 1.
3. Teams may adjust their roster BEFORE each playoff round using eligible players WITHOUT having to option, outright, or DFA players removed from the 26-man roster. The Transaction logs of the 2024 playoff teams documented roster changes with “player x roster status changed” as the playoffs progressed.
4. Thirteen pitchers is the most a team can carry. Position players are not limited (i.e., normal 26-man roster rule)
5. Injured players removed from their respective playoff roster DURING a playoff round are ineligible for the remainder of the playoff round and the next round.
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/postseason-roster-rules-eligibility
Thanks, so Stewart is good to go automatically if they want him. They could also qualify Dunn, Hinds, or whoever using Callahan as the cutout if they choose to.
And it sounds like they could simply bypass A.Hays without sending him to the IL.
Yes, Hinds and Dunn are automatically eligible as they were on the 40-man roster at noon on September 1st. That said, given that Hinds slumped badly and then didn’t play several games at the end of the season. Thus, I doubt that Hinds is available (kinda looks like an injury of some sort, given how the season ended).
With Callihan and multiple pitchers on the 60-day IL, the Reds could conceivably promote a player who was in the organization on August 31 by activating the injured player and then selecting the contract of another player. However, I don’t see any good candidates to bypass the position players or pitchers we already have on the 40-man roster. Reiver Sanmartin would likely be the most likely player added via this process, but I doubt the Reds would go that route.
A Reds win today would be terrific, especially if the Mets lose in the earlier game. Beating the Brewers again would be a huge turning point for the team. They took the series from Pittsburgh and Chicago. Lost the series 6-7 to St. Louis and two wins here would leave them 6-7 against the Brewers AND potentially keep the Brewers from having the best record in the game this season, depending on what the Phillies do. That would be a huge psychological boost heading into the playoffs. And then I’d really like them to show the Dodgers that the sweep in LA was a fluke and eliminate the Dodgers in the 1st rounds. It would be like the 70s all over again. It could happen.
I quickly checked every post you’ve ever had on RLN, and this one was by far the most positive.
I love it! The hype is contagious!
Nah, I just want to see the Dodgers and Brewers fall. I will say though, if the Reds make the playoffs with this roster, Tito deserves manager of the year
Win, baby, win … the rest takes care of itself.
Go Phish!!! Go Redlegs!!!
84 wins will get us in playoffs, who would have predicted that, right? NY, SF, and Az all faltered, hard to predict that. Reds need to seize this once in a life time opportunity. BP coming together in thr last 2 weeks or so is the biggest factor reds are in the driver seat and it will be the deciding factor if Reds can beat LA.
I think when the dust clears, 83 wins would get the last spot for the Reds. The Mets may need 84, but then again, I would not be shocked if the Reds backed in at 82.
Andujar is simply a professional hitter. I think he purposely slowed the bat on that RBI single to give a better shot at landing in front of the outfielder. So many times other guys have crushed a line drive that traveled right into the OF glove at 105+ mph.
Eury perez starting tonight for Marlins. Throws 99 mph and 6’8”
Lets hope he channels his inner JR Richard and KO’s the Mets
Lineup out, steer in left
And Sal and TySteve – going with the offense except for 2b/3b. Will be impressive and ironic of MM and Hayes have big hits.
Why is McLain playing AT ALL
Defense.. speed… good player who is slumping at plate but better than Espinal. Shrugs lol
I’m fine with him playing vs a lefty, especially while Hays is Hurt and can’t play LF.
Lux shouldn’t start at 2B vs a lefty, and Steer needed in LF while Hays is out.
And Red, I was having fun with ya. It is frustrating to watch his offensive struggles!!!
For sure it is !!! He’s been awful at the plate
Mets score 1 in first, could have gotten more.
Marlin’s manager said “we don’t get to go to LA to play the Dodgers. Our goal is to make sure the Mets dont go either”. Music to my ears. C’mon Fish!
That’s a great quote!
Cool. I can hear the music playing. 🙂
2-0 Shmetz
Alonso dinger.
Eury Perez has given 10 Ks to the Mets in 5 IP… Could the Marlins chase again this time Clay Holmes? Hope so…
Holmes is relieved in the 7th, but the Mets are up 3-0 …
Marlins having just 1 hit through 7 innings. Not helping at all…
Still waiting Mets fall apart today…
It’s all but a done deal, the Mets just scored again in the top of the ninth.
So the Reds won’t clinch today with a win, but neither will a loss eliminate them.
We would just have to win on the final day and have the Mets lose.