The Cincinnati Reds were unable to complete the sweep of the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday afternoon. The Cincinnati offense managed just four hits and their lone run came in the 9th inning when the game was already out of reach thanks to three Cubs home runs that led them, along with strong pitching, to a 6-1 win in the series finale.
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds (60-55) | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Chicago Cubs (66-48) | 6 | 11 | 1 |
| W: Horton (6-3) L: Abbott (8-2) | |||
| Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
Andrew Abbott found himself in trouble in the bottom of the 1st inning when he walked the leadoff hitter and gave up a 1-out single. He was able to get out of the jam with a force out and then a strikeout.
Two innings later the Reds lefty was in a similar jam after giving up back-to-back singles to start the 3rd and put runners on the corners. That led to Seiya Suzuki being able to cash in with a sacrifice fly to left field.
Cincinnati would get their first hit of the game in the top of the 4th when Austin Hays came through with a 2-out double that clanked off of the wall in left field and then off of left fielder Ian Happ’s back on it’s way back down. Hays would be stranded there after a strikeout ended the inning. Two innings later the Reds would get another hit – this time a single from TJ Friedl. Like Hays, though, he’d be started when the next two hitters failed to come through.
Chicago would add on to their lead in the bottom of the 6th inning when Seiya Suzuki led off with a solo home run against Andrew Abbott. The Cubs made it 3-0 on another leadoff homer in the 7th as Dansby Swanson crushed his 18th of the year. Abbott would retire the next two batters but then gave up a double to Justin Turner that ended his day. Luis Mey entered the game and walked Seiya Suzuki before giving up a soft liner into left field that resulted in an RBI single by Carson Kelly that pushed the home team’s lead to 4-0.
In the bottom of the 8th inning the Reds turned the game over to Yosver Zulueta, who was just called up earlier this week. After picking up a groundout to begin the inning he gave up a solo home run to Ian Happ as Chicago piled on. A 2-out single by Matt Shaw kept the inning going and then a wild pitch moved him to second. That was important because Nico Hoerner’s excuse-me check swing resulted in a blooper just over the head of a leaping Ke’Bryan Hayes to an RBI single that resulted in second run of the inning and pushed the lead to 6-0.
Cincinnati would get a leadoff single from TJ Friedl in the top of the 9th. Elly De La Cruz would line a 1-out single into left to start putting a little pressure on the Cubs pitching. A wild pitch moved both runners up a base and gave Austin Hays a chance with two runners in scoring position. He would ground out to third, but it brought Friedl in as the Reds avoided the shutout. That was all they’d get as a strikeout ended the game.
Key Moment of the Game
Dansby Swanson’s home run in the 7th inning. The Reds offense hadn’t done much all day, but a bloop and a blast didn’t seem other worldly. But scoring three runs?
Notes Worth Noting
Andrew Abbott turned in his 3rd worst start of the season, which tells you just how incredible his season has been that a 4-earned run outing over 6.2 innings was terrible by his standards is.
TJ Friedl was the only Reds hitter to reach base safely twice in the game.
The Reds offense walked zero times and had 12 strikeouts. The Cubs offense walked three times and only struck out four times.
Up Next for the Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Thursday August 7th, 6:40pm ET
Brady Singer (9-8, 4.36 ERA) vs Paul Skenes (6-8, 2.02 ERA)
Abbott’s in game ERA was 5.4, not good but I bet there are a lot of pitchers who would take that as their third worst out of 20 something starts. Even Abbott is entitled to an off day, and the Reds are unlikely to be going anywhere anyhow. I certainly don’t condone giving up as long as there is a mathematical chance, but I really would like to see some other youngsters get some extended time between now and season’s end to better see what we have going into 2026 when our real window opens.
I don’t think you’re going to see a lot of “youngsters” in August.
And if the Reds are hanging around an 86-90 win pace after August, I don’t think you’ll see them in September either.
Who do you want to see?
whole bunch of fans still think the September “callups” is still a thing. Gotta wonder why they don’t at least read one of the 250 explainers out there that covers this topic.
The rosters do expand.
Just not by nearly as much as they used to?
They expand by 2
I pitcher, 1 position player
That be it.
Any “giving up” this year will be a very hard fall compared to other years. We didn’t trade any of our expiring contracts for 2026 ammo. Pagan and Martinez would have each been pretty decent returns. Hays and Barlow would have also brought something. Water under the bridge now.
I don’t think Krall had much choice in deciding to go for it when you are only 2-3 games out with 55+ to play. But the moves he made or didn’t make seem to have little impact. Almost like let’s see if we can squeeze out 85 wins and hope for the best. Absolute worst thing for the young potential at Louisville. You can’t possibly play Hinds, CES, Petty, et al in this situation. Bad thing for 2026 too because you are at risk for losing guys like Pagan, Martinez, and Hays with absolutely no return. I am all for rentals like Littell and Andujar in the Reds situation but to improve the team and make a real run at this thing, imo Krall needed 2-3 more rentals and 3-4 less mid level prospects. We will find out over the next month whether he is the genius or whether this is disservice at a high level. The roster and talent seem pretty marginal to me and I tend to believe we will finish closer to 81 wins than 89 wins. Krall’s rosters do not historically have a strong record in September. Pitching depth has always been one of his weak points.
The players he picked up have already helped the Reds win games.
Agree. Just suggesting that they may not be enough to overcome a 3 game deficit. And if that is not your intent, then maybe you should have opted for the alternative of trading your expiring contracts for 2026 improvement pieces and brought up a few of your high talent prospects for 1-2 month evaluation. Now you are in a position of playing your current players until the end and getting nothing in return for the 5-6 expiring contracts. All great if it works out and you get to 88 wins and the playoffs. Not good at all if you don’t make any substantial improvement and makeup the playoff deficit. The Cards, Giants, Marlins, and Nats all opted for 2026 improvement in lieu of a run in 2025. The Mets, Phils, Cubs, Reds, and Pads opted to trade prospects for 2025 improvement. The concern is did we do enough trading to makeup the 3 game deficit. It just seemed to me that we only stuck our toe in the water rather than jumping in. A really lost opportunity and chance to get better in 2026 if we fall short. Pagan, Martinez, Hayes, Barlow, and Lux all had solid prospect trade value.
I am very pleased that we did not throw in the towel and trade away expiring contracts. I don’t think we did nearly enough though. Suarez would have been a great add and only cost Seattle a #9, #16, and #17 prospects. Kebryan Hayes was a heck of a lot bigger investment and easily could have waited until the off-season. Littell and Andujar were nice rentals but didn’t address bullpen needs or the big bat. We are now pitching Mey, Moll, and Zuletta out of the bullpen due to no additions. Hayes and Lux with 14 total HRs are batting behind Elly. Suarez has 40.
This whole series was dominated by pitching. Each offense had one good outing and two bad ones, and ended with the Reds and Cubs scoring just 9 runs apiece. Cincy was lucky to be the team pulling out the series win.
Great series win. On to Pittsburgh and hopefully another series win.
Need sweeps, not series wins.
It’s fair to say that if the Reds win 2 of 3 the rest of the way, a .667 clip, they will put themselves in a good position.
They just won a series against the team that is ahead of them in standings. Let’s not get ridiculous.
A win is a win, and a loss is a reality. Parts of the ups and downs of a long season.
Very difficult to sweep a series. That’s why you always try to win the series. Odds are you will gain games on teams ahead of you.
Kittredge pitched immaculate inning in 7th. Nine pitches. Nine strikes. Three strikeouts.
This was only the 120th time that immaculate inning was pitched in MLB history.
So said the WLW 700 announcers.
Less than 24 hours after giving up 4 runs in 1/3 of an inning, and getting booed off the mound.
Baseball is weird…
The kid that came in just did what the kid that he replaced was doing.Throw fastballs.In the 7th his sequence to all 3 hitters was fastball fastball then slider and set down.Nothing fancy just here it is and hit it if you can.Had to wonder if he had came back out if they would have caught on to what he was doing.Reds punched out 12 times and didn’t draw a walk and had 4 hits,two in the ninth.Over 40% of the time they didn’t even put the ball in play.Now I just don’t get how a team that lacks power and that is using the oppo hitting approach does that.Maybe its just when the pressure is on they revert to the swing and swing harder approach.
Oppo hitting often requires letting the ball travel a little further (unless you have some incredible bat control ala Votto in the day). It helps with breaking balls too, allowing the ball to move out of the zone before swinging. But, on fast balls you have to be quick. I think I see a fair number of late swings, especially McLain.
Lefty handers typically have a rough time in Wrigley Field. Why the Cubs traded away Ken Holtzman (who went on to pitch for the A’s) after a “bad” year in 1971 (no hit the Reds that year, too) and why the Cubs traded away promising farm hand pitcher Dontrelle Willis…..who went on to a lot of success with the Florida Marlins.
If I were Abbott, I would just shake it off…it’s Wrigley, during the day, and the Cubs were due to win one.
I think the Cubs are fading. Their gaudy offensive numbers are starting to return to “normal”. I mean, these guys aren’t the 1927 Yankees.
“Forget it, Jake, it’s Wrigleyville.”
Nice!
The ‘friendly confines’ of Wrigley Field are in a neighborhood where people seem to lead regular lives.
The Cubs offense slowed down for the first five games of August… but that’s only five games.
Today they scored six. Four of them off of one of the better pitchers in the National League.
I would not count the Cubs out.
Sure, their offense could regress a bit, but their WORST month of the season was June when they batted .245 as a team with a .745 OPS.
The Reds BEST month this season was June when they batted .250 as a team with a .730 OPS
The MLB team averages for the entire season are .245 BA with a .720 OPS
As Cowboy said, somewhere along the line you have to make your move and string more than 3-4 wins together. We are not trying to play level ball against the Pads and Cubs. That time passed in May. We probably need to get to 8-9 over by the end of the August. That doesn’t allow 500 ish weeks. We are the chaser and need to apply the pressure to the leaders. Otherwise, we are going to be the one playing under pressure and we just are not very good at that. Today was a pressure point important game and we get 4 total hits. I am sure they are trying hard. The question is are they good enough or clutch enough to apply pressure to the other guy? They need better than a 2-2 split against the Buccos. Pittsburgh is not very good post deadline. The Reds should score a decent amount of runs.
Agree, Rob. The time has passed for just being a bit over 500. Thru need to not just win series, but get some sweeps for good measure. Time is short. They’ve had all summer to play themselves into a strong position and didn’t do it. So now it’s scramble time. Honestly do t think they’re good enough offensively to get it done, but I’ll still cheer them on!
Watching the Cardinal – Dodger game and as much as I can’t stand the Cardinals I have to say that if the Reds had their hitters they would be easily leading the Wild Card. After they take 2 of 3 from the Dodgers the Reds will be 2 and 1/2 ahead of them. With the Reds miserable offense I am not sure they will finish ahead of them.
Big step backward in momentum. Hope we can shake this off and whip the Pie-Rats. Cowboy’s right … can’t just play “better”. Need to dominate. That’s a tall order for any team, but streaks do happen. Perhaps a players only meeting is in the future.
Oh, and … Stink. Fish. Pot!!!
This team simply cannot hit good pitching and has no real power. It will not change until at least four batters are replaced in the everyday lineup Exit velocities must increase and strikeouts must be cut in half. Great American is a home run hitters park for a team that has n one who has hit 20 home runs
when I watch the reds at the plate, I am amazed how many times I see pitches at like 92-95 down the heart of the plate that our hitters either take for a strike, foul off or swing thru….pitches that I think they should hammer. I know it’s not gonna happen all the time, but it seems that a lot of our guys don’t make enough contact to put together a long win streak and the SO’s just pile up
Especially true for Steer. I realize he’s had some big moments recently, but it seems he fouls off or pops up these center cut fastballs. He’s just not on it with any consistency. Then we have Stevo. My goodness as Barry says. No stick whatsoever. Sadak thunderously announced his 9th home run the other night like that number is a big deal. It’s awful.
Especially Steer. I realize he’s had some big moments lately, but seems to foul off or pops out with many center cut fastballs. And Stephenson…my goodness as Barry says. On his recent homer, Sadat thunderously announce his 9th homer like that number is a big milestone. It’s awful.
I frequently see this as well. I know the camera angle takes something away from it, but I wonder sometimes what is going on. Are they over thinking and guessing wrong? When even a good fastball hitter like EDLC is cutting and missing on 93 or 94 center cut, I struggle for an explanation. That should be prime hitting speed for a good major league hitter. Put in middle/middle, and it should be a souvenir (more often than they have been, anyway).
If the Reds were looking for rotation help from the Bats, it probably won’t come from Chase Petty. This evening, he got lit up for 9 earned runs in 2.2 innings. About the most positive thing I can think of to say after watching it is that at least he only walked 1 batter.
A couple of innings later, Ian Gibaut (on rehab) allowed 4 runs, all earned in 0.2 of an inning.
CES is 2/2 with an RBI and a run scored. Benson is 1/3, Hinds 0/3 but no Ks; Stewart and Rodriguez have both been blanked and have 3 Ks between them (2 for Stew).
Well, at least there is game 2 of this doubleheader to come.
Jim, is there an internet site where I can get game cast of the Bats?
If you have the AT Bat level at MLB(.)com, they are included. That’s $30 a year. I do not know if there is a reduction for signing up this late in the year.
Also the Bats are also available *for free* via the reorganized Bally Sports Live site. Google that for details. While this is free, you must sign up for an account which I presume is used for marketing purposes.
I thought the Reds were overly passive with pitching help at the deadline considering 1) possible inning limits, 2) history of September tiredness in other pitchers, 3) injury contingencies and 4) known lack of help at Louisville. Think Littell was a great pickup/rental. But Martinez, Lodolo, and Burns are all pushing inning limits. Since Krall committed to this playoff chase, I just think he needed to do more. Mediocre rentals being fine but please let’s stop this rollout of AAAA pitchers like Mey, Zuletta, et al. That is just going to crash your plane before you even get off the ground. Come on. Think this thing through. You need an extended winning streak and Tony and Pagan can’t pitch every day. And our offense isn’t strong enough that we are going to larger leads. I am having a hard time seeing how we are going to make this happen. We need to pick up ground. Not stay even. 6-4 in the next 10games will be OK but we really need 7-3 or better. I just don’t know how with a shaky bullpen and weak offense.
Enough of the stupid innings limits. Martinez and Lodolo have been in the league long enough to let them pitch out a season. If teams go by innings limits, every year they would be shutting guys down because they exceeded their innings the year before. Lodolo would finally make it through a full season by time he was 32 if they go by that theory. Young guys like Burns who hasn’t pitched long in the minors or 1 year in the majors is qualified for innings limits. For God sakes quit babying everybody.
I don’t believe that Lodolo or Martinez is on any kind of limit.
Burns, yes.
“Reds offense sputters” (again), says it all, imo. Can’t rely on pitching every game. Right back to the trade deadline miscue?
Bally it is. Thank you!
Disappointed in the loss of course! But not losing sight of the fact that the Reds WON the series against the Cubs AT their ballpark! That’s what the Reds MUST do going forward, that is WIN SERIES! Unfortunately, this team is not built for long winning streaks especially with 2 of their best SPs out with injuries!
Let’s move on and beat up on the Pie-Rats in Steel Town! Tough 1st game against Skenes but he is beatable! Just need to string some hits together and run up his pitch count!
You are right Dennis: This team is not built for long winning streaks but the biggest reason isn’t their injured starters, which they have managed to overcome, it’s their putrid offense. This offense is so bad that even when their so called best hitters are up I find myself hoping for a walk. I tend to believe they might fall out of the playoff race because their pitchers, see Abbott, may run out of gas.
2 out of 3 in CubeLand is just fine.
Very good, actually.
Hope and realistic expectations are both called for.
Whenever anyone on RLN says ‘Sweep!’ It almost certainly jinxes it.
I know, I know, there was that one time when they did sweep.
The occasional no-hitter still gets tossed when somebody pops off about it.
That doesn’t mean you want to say it.
So it should be when the Reds are on the verge of a sw—-p.
“Sweep! Sweep! Sweep!”
Well there, I said it!!! 😉
The Pirates have some good pitching (beside Paul Skenes) but have an even more anemic offense.
So if the Reds’ pitching does NOT shut them down, it could be rough. If the Pirates score 4-5 runs a game, likely they will win the series. If the Reds can hold the Pirates to 1-2 runs a game, then THEY will win the series.
Can’t win them all in baseball (unless you’re the Brewers). That said, the offense has to be better for us to have a chance to catch Padres or Mets.
Hoping Hunter Greene doesn’t have a setback and Lodolo can pick back up in 15 days. Without Martinez in bullpen, things are a bit thin down there.
Saw where Petty got bombed again today. He has not performed well in AAA since the Reds sent him back down. Wonder if there is something wrong with him? Doug, is there any STATCAST data on how Petty is doing?
Well, I hope Petty dropped leaflets before he bombed.
The humanity! Oh my! 🙂
I asked for 5 runs which is a lot for this offense and even that wouldn’t be enough. It would make the game more competitive for sure. I just felt like Abbott has not been lights out and Cubs would not want to be swept, so they would put up some runs. If I have to find something to blame, it would be batting Steer 2nd. It screwed the whole offense rhym up, at least for me. Not sure why Francona did it. Let’s settle for 2 FGs instead of a TD for the week.
Gotta win every game. Can’t lose ones they should win. Abbott very disappointing today, after Littell’s stellar outing last night. Nothing but a huge let down, typical for this club. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them lose 3 of 4 in Pittsburgh.
The Pirates have great starting pitching, and they’ve actually played around .500 over the past month or more, so you shouldn’t be surprised if the Reds lose 3 of 4 this weekend.
And btw… Abbott pitched well for most of his innings today. Especially after not being sharp in the first inning. He’s a really good starting pitcher who today gave up some walks, hits, and runs to the best offense in all of baseball. I don’t think fans should be “very disappointed” with him.
But their new bullpen is depleted and horrific. We need to come in and just pound these guys into submission. If we have another 5 hit 2 run game on Thursday nite, all we are doing is giving the Pirates life and a reason to compete.
Gotta win every game? Are you serious?
The Reds DO NOT have to win every game. If they keep winning series, they will most likely play themselves into a playoff spot.
Of course, we expect them to do try their best every day. But to expect them to win every game? Be realistic.
How do the Reds get to 87 wins and perhaps in the playoffs as NLWC#3?
Well, here is what I figure is maybe the “best case scenario”…
60-55 currently.
12-10 in the next 7 series vs the .500+ teams on the schedule gets them 72 wins.
12-7 in the next 7 series vs sub-.500 teams will get them to 84 wins.
And then? …Sweep the Brewers in Milwaukee on the final weekend of the season.
That would get the Reds to 87 wins.
AND?
(Yeah, I’m sorry. There’s more.)
And either SDP or NYM will need to go lose from here so they don’t win more 87.
The Reds would be 87-75 after going from 27-17 from currently 60-55
NYM 86-76 after finishing 23-25 from currently 63-51
… or …
SDP 86-76 after finishing 23-25 from currently (before Wednesday night) 63-51
So… it’s not looking great.
And…
NOTE: I’ve included the Pirates as a “bad” team – because they are – but they have three solid pitchers lined up for the Reds starting tomorrow.
So it’s really not looking good.
ALSO NOTE: There are tiebreakers that the Reds could win over SDP of NYM if they were to tie them with the same number of wins.
So there’s that.
The Reds sweep the Brewers on the last series of the year? Now that’s funny. They haven’t won a series against Milwaukee in a long time – years. So if it comes down to that series, the Reds, and their fans will be watching the playoffs on TV.
They have both won series and swept series in MIlwaukee within the past five years.
Besides, this team is different. New manager. Several new players.
Even this year… different players with the Reds now than they had in April for a series in Milwaukee.
Even the June series was before Marte and Hays joined the team.
And speaking of this year when they had lesser lineups against the Brewers…
2-5 with 3 one-run losses.
Yes, a sweep in Milwaukee at the end of the season might be unlikely (That was sort of the point of my post… it’s all unlikely) but the Brewers might not be playing for anything. They might have their rotation set up so the Reds wouldn’t see their best two starters. And c’mon… it’s *possible* so I’d bet you’d watch.
If it comes down to the final series, yeah, I’ll be watching. Keep waiting for Milwaukee to fall back to earth. They are 31-9 over the last 40. That’s a fantastic run. If only the Reds could string one together like that.
I’d be watching it on TV anyway, LDS.
The Reds ended the 1999 regular season against the Brewers, and needed two wins to win the WC outright, and one win to clinch a tie with the Mets (that was when there was only one WC team).
They lost two out of three to the Brewers (in the old stadium), because I recall that the last game was played on a swampy field after the rain.
Made it to the playoff game, but lost to the Mets for the WC spot.
Not too optimistic about “Sweeping” the Brewers at their house at the end of the season.
Leonard, have you posted the Reds power numbers pre July 1 and post July 1? My observation is that there has been a power outage after July 1.
Not surprising at all the Cubs avoided the sweep. They are the better team. Odds are still low for the Reds but don’t give up on them yet (until at least the end of this month). If you haven’t noticed stranger things have already happened, both the NY moneybags are faltering big time. The Yanks are now in 3rd place, and the closest target for the WC for the Reds is now the Mets and not the Padres, who gathered a lot of “fortification” at the trade deadline. Now, 3 out of 4 from the Bucs should be eminently doable (probably, maybe??) and that really moves the ball forward. Also remember that DB is not in the building anymore.
Yes, DB is gone, but Krall isn’t and more importantly neither is Castellini. So fans are still drawing the short straw as they have for over 30 years.
Dude.
The Reds took two out of three from the Cubs in Chicago and you were nowhere to be seen.
They lose today and you show up and start whining again.
You’re like a picnic ant.
The act is getting really tiresome.
You’ve made your point…countless times.
You’re apparently clever enough, you owe it to yourself to come up with something new.
Actually I was. You just missed my posts. But no, I’m not around as much these days, because I didn’t and mostly don’t expect them to make the playoffs. It’ll be fun if they do, but it’s a pretty tall hill to climb. Next year, assuming Krall does his job in the offseason, the Reds should be in better shape.
When did the Reds ever make a blockbuster deal in the free-agent era?
Votto.
Before that, Griffey?
Before that, Seaver?
It’s not all on Castellini.
For people who keep saying the Reds offense is bad, or putrid. They are 10th on runs scored. Averaging 4.56 runs per game.
Batting average is 247. Which puts them at 16th. Again not bad or good. Simply put they are a solid team.
LOL.
In-numerology at play
Once again you are talking about averages: Reds could score 10 runs in one came and one each the next two and be “averaging” 4 runs a game.
Their record would be 1-2.
Hardly “solid”.
If they scored 4 runs in each of those games they might have gone 3-0.
Scoring runs, and any statistic in baseball is purely situational, which is typically obscured by the data wonks.e
It’s the inconsistency that provokes the negative reactions.
A ‘solid’ team in 2025 will lead them to at best 3rd place in the NL Central.
Some fun baseball to be seen along the way.
And some drudgery watching the poor hitting.
Folks here are obviously hoping for a “good” team.
re:
“A ‘solid’ team in 2025 will lead them to at best 3rd place in the NL Central.”
Yes, because the Reds are solid but the top two teams in the division are each on their way to winning 92-98 games and both are among the ten favorites to win the World Series.
So you see the “situation” is such that in 2025 the Reds can be both “solid” AND unfortunately not finish anu higher than third in the division.
Why is it so difficult for some fans to accept that this young team with a thin, flawed roster is overachieving and on their way to 85 wins and that’s a good. strong step in the right direction from what we’ve seen in the past few years?
They are going to have their best season since Dusty Baker had em win 90 games more than ten years ago! This is something that SOME Reds fans can appreciate and enjoy a little bit.
Thank you, CenTex.
All teams gave lop-sided wins from time to time. Lop-sided losses, too. This is not a Reds-only phenomenon.
Okay, my fault as I thought RLN wanted stats and numbers. I was wrong. The consistent moaning about how awful this team is inspite of being 3 games out of the wildcard is somewhat baffling to me.
Sure the team has flaws , it doesn’t take writing a book of stats to know this. Yet here they are and through all the struggles and frustrations we are talking playoff chances. With a tough schedule and lack of movement from front office it maybe too much to over come.
Time will tell..
I will take 3rd place if we get a wildcard or get to 88 wins. That to me translates to a demonstrated improvement post deadline. Otherwise, I will believe we failed at the deadline with 2 rentals and Hayes, and no return on our 5-6 expiring contracts.
And our definition of 2025 success is different. We are in roughly the same stage of our rebuild as the Tigers and Cubs. IMO, their youngsters are playing better than ours yet we continue to trudge on believing in one more year we will be better. Arroyo, Marte, McLain, Steer, Benson, CES, Petty, Lowder, Greene, et al. Really? Do we really think that Vegas is going to pick the Reds over the Tigers or Cubs next year? Show me over the next 2 months that we have arrived. It just can’t be forever that we win79-83 games.
@Rob
First, the bad news:
Reds have won between 79-83 games in the 11 seasons since Dusty Beaker left.
But! The good news:
They hired a different Hall of Fame manager this past offseason, and they are on pace to win 85 games in his first year (with young players).
An 85-win season would be the Reds’ 4th best season since in the past 25 years.
And it would also be their 3rd winning season in the last 6 years.
I realize that this is small comfort to fans who want to see 90 wins and playoff victories, but I think it’s worth pointing out that this team is doing some things that they don’t often do, and I think most outside of the Cincinnati doom-and-gloom crowd see this team as headed in the right direction… at the very least. we know they are headed away from the forgettable Bryan Price and David Bell years.
*EDIT*
“First, the bad news: the Reds have only twice won between 79-83 games in the 11 seasons since Dusty Beaker left.”
Sorry for the sour grapes. But 85 wins is only 8 games over 500 when we have been 5 over for awhile now and susposedly made “big improvements” at the deadline. That seemingly should translate to 86-88 wins. And if we are going to be so great in 2026, shouldnt some of this greatness manifest it self over the last 2 months? I.E. if Steer and McLain are going to hit 275 with 20 HRs in 2026, then they should hit at that rate in August and September. Same with Greene, and Lodolo. If they are truly stud pitchers, then shouldnt they each win 4-5-6 games over 2 months? But their history continues to suggest otherwise. That is one of my rubs. We continue to count on these guys for more productive results and here we are in August and McLain is hitting 221 and Steer 239, and Greene and Lodolo with what 13 wins combined. If we are truly on the right track and 2026 is truly going to be much better, then the results of the last two months should be much better than the first 4 months. Right?
Every team loses here and there except Milwaukee. Maddening. Remember Anthony Desclafani? He’s pitching for Arizona and shutting down Padres so far. Former Reds helping out his old team.
They’re something else, arent theym Can’t help but wonder if they don’t have a secret formula for success?
They won’t share it with us, that’s for sure 🙂
Taking two of three from the Cubs is just fine. However, the Reds definitely need to win the series against Pittsburgh. A split is not sufficient.
With Skenes going tonight it is going to be tough to take 3. I see another uninspiring 2-2 series.
In watching the Brewers vs Atlanta last night, I noticed a couple things.
– their young hitters are tough outs. They battle. And they don’t strike out. This was against Spencer strider.
– they don’t try to hit home runs but they hit the ball hard and usually up the middle.
– they are aggressive in the basepaths. They force throws and mistakes.
– pitchers paint the corners. Hardly ever over the middle of the plate.
Just some observations. I hadn’t watched them this year. Solid team but noone is spectacular.
SD is too good with the new additions. They had Morejon come in the game in the 5th on Tuesday. He’s 9-4 with a 2.05 era. Thats how deep they are. O’Hearn hit a HR in the 9th last night. Their starters aren’t the greatest, but you can make a playoff run when your pen is that deep. Maybe the Mets and we catch them at home for 3 in September.
And yeah we’re 12th in runs scored. That to me is an indictment on the game because they are generally a boring team. When you get held to 2 or less 1/3 of the time then you’re not explosive. I think the 24 and 14 vs Texas really throws off our numbers. Overall though when only a handful of guys hit .300 in the entire game then thats bad for the sport. Everyone throwing 97 is bad for the game and I have no idea how you fix it?
Its like the velocity of serves took away from the rallies in tennis. I bet their game was alot healthier with Borg, McEnroe, Becker, Agassi, etc
You can’t really throw out the 24-run game just because you think it was some kind of an anomaly.
They still played that game and they played well, and the win counted, so why would you tell the players “Well, that game was not what we expected so it shouldn’t really count.”
What would be a satisfying number of runs for you in that game? If they had scored 9 instead of 24?
Okay.. I’ll do the math without those 15 runs that you want to ignore…
If they had only scored 9 instead of 24, the Reds run per game average then drops from 4.5 to 4.4, which would drop them from 11th in MLB to 13th. From just above MLB-average to pretty much the average.
And you might say “What about the time the Reds scored the 14 runs?”
I’m not going to check this, but I would bet you some $9 stadium nachos that almost every MLB team had a game this year when they scored between 12-15 runs. If we were to toss out one of the Reds most productive offensive games, why would we then go about comparing the Reds to all the MLB teams who get to “keep” all of their awesome days and nights of run-scoring?
“reds offense sputters”
Indeed.
But, this team has a ton of games where they only score 0/1/2 runs and sort of explains why they cant put together that big winning streak.
Need 3/4 in Pittsburgh and Skenes up first.
The combination of the Front Office and Tito has made the decisions that put the Reds where they are. They chose to bring in Andujar along with Hayes and ride with Fraley, Lux, and Espinal.
I hope the team succeeds, but I question the choice to go the way management has chosen to go.
As has been stated our hitters swing and miss way too much. This especially hurts when you have a runner at third with less than 2 outs. That seems to be a common refrain. Must bring in new blood but have to wonder if this is an issue with our development of players ie swing for the fence or strike out. Even Elly and Hays have contact issues with above average pitching. McClain as well.
The 2025 Reds with a runner on 3rd and less than two outs:
260 PAs
.340 BA, .905 OPS
65 hits, 165 RBI
I don’t know what an MLB-average might be for runner on 3rd and less than two outs, but I took a look at the Brewers – They score a lot of runs, they win a lot of games, and they do it with a team SLG% that – like the Reds – is below teh MLB team average.
Brewers with runner on 3rd, less than two outs:
265 PAs
.340 BA. .930 OPS
65 hits, 180 RBI
And then I took a look at the Diamondbacks – They score more runs than the Reds, but they are not winning games like the Reds.
DBacks with runner on 3rd, less than two outs:
260 PA
.325 BA. .895 OPS
60 hits, 170 RBI
So if you ask me, “bringing in new players” and/or a new strategy/approach at the plate might be a solution for a problem that doesn’t really exist.
Trying to figure out with the same number of hits with a runner at third and less then two outs the Brewers score 15 more runs then we do.Help me.
@ Roger
It’s only a 9% increase.
It could be that they had more guys on second base as well as third in those scenarios. And maybe they had bases loaded once or twice more than the Reds and they were able to jack a grand slam or two.
Sac flys might explain it.
Doesn’t count as a hit or AB or hurt the AVG.
RBI ground outs.
Roger…its the number of guys on 3rd/less then 2 out. If we hit a leadoff double, good chance he dies there. The next guy won’t/can’t bunt or hit the ball to the right side to move him over. He won’t steal even if its McLain or Elly. McLain stole 3rd in the 1st inning and it won that 2-1 game over Tampa, but I think its the only time all year. Milwaukee does all those things well
Freidl gets picked off, but he doesn’t run so why are you getting picked off? I know every team makes mistakes, slumps, etc., but I just get frustrated w/the Reds lack of fundamentals and aggressiveness
The Reds are in a good position for the last playoff wild card. A sweep of their up-river rival is needed.
How about winning – heck let’s shoot for scoring in – Game 1 against Skenes, probably the best pitcher in MLB.
Great chance for PS to earn a NO-No today.
Reds have no weapons to hit him
Elly, Steer, and Lux.
There will be strikeouts, yes.. but those guys will get some hits and produce at least two runs just among the three of them.
You better get atleast 10-1 on a parlay w/those guys then because none of them are hot. All Lux ever produces is a walk or a seeing eye single thru the infield
Here’s Lux a year ago facing Skenes in a 3-game slump with 2 K, no walks, and only one single…
https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN202408100.shtml
And here’s what Spencer Steer can do:
https://stathead.com/baseball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&player_id1=steer-000spe&player_id2=skenes000pau
(Steer has an .830 OPS in his last 30 PAs btw … If that’s “not hot” the Reds could use some more not-hot players.)
And Elly:
https://stathead.com/baseball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&player_id1=delacr000ell&player_id2=skenes000pau
Indy, I’ll bet you a Hudepohl tall boy and a Skyline 3-way that the Reds score at least three runs off of Skenes tonight.
😉
Here is an (I think) interesting way to look at the 2025 Reds and how they differ from what has frustrated us since the Dusty/Votto/Bruce/Cueto/Harang/Arroyo years:
Take TJ Friedl.
He’ll be 30 in a few days.
He’s played more than 400 games for the Reds. He’s never played for any other team.
We don’t think of him as a “veteran leader” on this team, but he really is one of the guys that has been here the longest and he’s put up a positive WAR each season (since 2021 when he only played 14 games in September).
In 2021, TJ Friedl saw Joey Votto’s last productive month as a Red. That must have been cool for a rookie. But since then, Friedl has also seen Mike Moustakis bottom out for the Reds. He saw Luis Castillo traded. He saw Mike Minor start almost 20 games for the Reds.
He saw Jose Barreo.
He saw David Bell manage the team to 100 losses and keep his job.
Freidl has dealt with some injuries, he’s worked his way back from injuries twice (iirc) and this year he was mentioned as a possibility for the NL All Star team. He’s a really solid player and a guy that I think fans should look at as a one of the team’s “identity” players.
And I don’t think that that Friedl is looking around the Reds clubhouse at Tito and Elly and the guys in the starting rotation and thinking: “OMG. What am I doing here? This team never wins.”
Leonard, I follow you all the way until the final paragraph… but then I’m not quite sure what conclusion you are getting at.
When you say that, “I don’t think Friedl is looking around the Reds clubhouse and thinking ‘OMG, what am I doing here? This team never wins.”… are you being critical of his lack of leadership? Or is there some other point you are making there?
I guess I’m saying…
“What would fans post in these comments if they though TJ Friedl might be reading them?” 😉
I’m saying that there is a way to look at this year’s team – the players, the manager, the coaches, the strategies and game plans, the construction of the roster and the lineups, the “vibes” and everything – without having to bemoan all of the things that have gone wrong in the past ten – or even thirty-five mostly forgetful years.
I understand that fans can have a hard time setting aside all of the losing, all of the bad contracts and payroll decisions, along with any accidentally callous and regrettable statements from the ownership group. I get it. It’s not “easy” for some lifers to set all that aside and try to find ways to be optimistic.
But (and this may sound corny) if we take a look at the 2025 Reds through the eyes of a guy like TJ Friedl (who I think we all like, right?) and if we look at the team and think about 2026 and 2027 – without moaning “Argh.. I’m SO tired of hearing ..Wait til next year!” – then this year’s 85ish wins will really mean something and (again… kinda corny here) maybe it’s something positive that can bring fans together to appreciate and agree upon.
The roster is thin. And flawed. I get it. I agree. It’s frustrating.
But for a group that enjoys team sports as much as we all do, what would we think of the guy on the team sulking in our locker-room and saying such things?
He’d probably be ignored until maybe a guy like Friedl might sit down with him and say “Hey, man. We’re got something going here and your attitude is not really helping… You good? Or do you just need to be somewhere else?”
I believe Friedl is not the leader he could have been at this point if he had been exposed to a better environment prior to this year. That is no fault of his.
I apologize. I guess I’m being misunderstood.
I’m not saying that I think Friedl needs to be the team leader.
I’m saying that some pessimistic fans might consider looking at the team the way that a player like TJ Friedl probably does.
I think he looks around at his teammates and his manager and sees a young team improving and trying to win more games than they did last year and is probably hopeful that he can stay with the team in 2026 and 2027 because the Reds are on their way to winning even more.
You’re harshing the general griping, Leonard. I’m not at all sure that I’m using “harshing” appropriately, but old guys like me should be forgiven when they dabble with non-words.
The Mets seem now like the team the Reds are chasing. Their rotation is fairly suspect and their September schedule looked really hard to me. Their star power still gives them the edge over the Reds I’d say though.
But I wouldn’t be surprised either if Miami or San Fran sneak up on the Reds too now.
As for this series, the only way I’d be surprised is if the Reds get swept. Otherwise I think our Reds are pretty much the same team as they’ve been where they could go 1-3 in this series, 2-2, 3-1 and it wouldn’t be too much of a surprise.
I’m curious to see if Marte gets hot again some point. I feel like Francona needs to keep him a certain spot in the lineup. I’d say 2nd or 5th ideally.
@ Leonard I get that including the 9% difference and I pretty much knew how you would respond.Averages are just averages and can be skewed by a lot of things as you just said in your response.The could be’s and the maybe’s always come in to play.
Okay. You said “Trying to figure out” and “Help me” so I thought I’d offer what I thought might be the “situational baseball” numbers hidden inside the data.
But you “already knew” what my answer was so I guess you’re making educated guesses while claiming to be looking for answers?
Silly me. I fell into some trap of yours?
And I don’t know what you mean by “averages are just averages.” I don’t get the feeling that you’re looking for statistical analysis that goes any *deeper* than averages, and “averages” are what baseball fans use to converse a lot of the time, so I think it would be odd to say “That gorilla sitting here that you all keep talking about is just a gorilla so I don’t really want to consider how it got here and I think you all should stop talking about it.”
Easy friend its ok didn’t mean to fire you up.Wasn’t try to trap you at all.Just a lifetime fan of the Reds for over 60 years.Don’t use data every time to verify what I think I see is what I see.I apologize if I offended you.As far as averages are just averages.I got that from a book on SPC written by Edward Deming way way back. He introduced statistical process control to the auto and other industries.Our CEO insisted we all take a class and read the book and implement the process.Not sure if it ever made us any better as a company but sure helped to gain new business and market share.
@ Rob no return on expiring contracts will come back to haunt the Reds.Some say the Cards gave up and some say the Snakes gave up.I may have missed something but didn’t both teams just move players that weren’t under contract for next season,The Snakes got a kid in the Naylor deal that is now at first and some say will be a fixture for years to come. Good observation Rob
Win tonight somehow and you’re 2.5 behind the Mets with Skenes in the rearview and NY goes to Milw tomorrow. It would take a concerted effort to make Skenes work and get him out as early as possible. I just don’t see a high baseball IQ with our lineup. Maybe it will come with more experience? Teams slump too…Cubs have alot of vets and they couldn’t hit squat those first 2 games. That hit-n-run that got them their 1st run yesterday was nice though. Most likely 4-6-3 doubleplay otherwise
Was at the game and commented how that play typified the difference in the 2 teams..
I don’t remember us doing that all year.
Well maybe once or twice.
Also thought Abbott wasn’t that bad.
He couldn’t get a first pitch strike all day.Was pitched behind mostly.
Hitters looked like it was spring training.
Very bad.
Roger, wasn’t Deming largely ignored by American industries and business I think he went to Japan and they embraced his ideas and after that nobody laughed at “made in Japan” anymore. I worked for a company that gave a seminar on his work to help us with customer service.
For a while, something they beat us over the head with, in grad school. There’s a difference between the use of statistics in SPC and the use of statistics in baseball. But, yes, an average is just an average and average is essentially mediocre. That’s one of the myths of “best practices”. If everyone embraces the same “best practices”, then everyone becomes mediocre/average. When I was in high school, back in 60-70s, jocks laughed at the nerds. Now they slobber on every utterance that some nerd spews out. I miss the good old days.
@LDS
I think there is a disconnect between how you see baseball statistics using different averages and “average” meaning “mediocre” or “middling.”
When I look at averages in baseball, I am looking to see what I/we might be reasonable to expect in future instances – based on past results. I am not looking to see “What is the most mundane middle-of-the-road result that happens most of the time?”
I figure you must know this, but I guess there is something I am not understanding when “average is average is average” is being said.
And y’know, “the good old days” may have been good for you. But a lot of people from different backgrounds with different ideas may not feel the same as you do if we’re talking about how some people treated each other 40, 50, 60 years ago. (To define folks as “jocks and nerds” and then dismiss one group gives me an idea of where you sat in the American cultural hierarchy.)
Also.. Citing the work of an economist/theorist like Deming and his philosophies/approaches adds to an interesting discussion, but isn’t it worth noting that Deming has been not writing and not teaching for more than thirty years? Iindustries have probably taken some valuable ideas and practices from his work but then also… progressed and moved on?
I am certainly no expert on data analysis. If I were to dig into the subject and ask for guidance, I’d be sure to consider ideas from Deming and his peers if they were offered. But I’d also want to hear about what we’ve come to learn while living in and progressing through the first couple of decades of the 21st Century.
If everyone uses the same best practices, the Dodgers win.
We’re at a point in baseball now where the nerds are clearly helping the players. They’ve seen it, they’ve lived it, the swing trackers and pitch trackers have made them understand themselves better, that’s why the jocks have come around, at least in baseball. (It depends which nerd is talking, though. And ironically we’re also at at a point where bloodless projection models are probably doing more harm than good to certain GMs.)
Deming didn’t just argue for the adoption of best practices; he also espoused continuous improvement of best practices. Mediocrity is the place for those unwilling to adapt and change with their environment.
Actually @Leonard, it tells you nothing about where I am on the cultural hierarchy. And your inference would not be correct.
Yes for sure.His famous line was I am just an apprentice statistician.Dude helped re indentify what a quality product was and is today.SPC was and still is a great tool to use in all manufacturing processes.Its based on data collection and responding to the data so it certainly could be applied to improving customer service.Toyota has taken some of his ideas and some of their own to develop a never ending improvement process but I can’t recall the name.Toyota produces one of the best if not the best quality products in the world.Keep in mind this takes me back to the early 80’s when I was just a young pup starting out in the auto industry.Hung out at the Toyota plant in KY for several weeks back at that time.Went out one night with some buddies got lost on some of the back roads and ended up at a joint called Bubba’s Pleasure Palace.Born and raised in West VIrginia I felt right at home.
Oh yeah, traveling for work in the late 70s and 80s was definitely an educational experience for a guy whose hometown population was smaller than the freshman class his first year of college. Of course, it did beat getting older and fading into the sunset.
Maybe the Reds can surprise Skenes. At least, take good ABs and runup his pitch counts and get him out of the game. The Pirates offense isn’t great. If Singer has a good game, it could be a low scoring, late inning result. The Reds really need to win on days virtually no one else is playing. Let’s hope that happens today. He hasn’t faced this Reds lineup, although he held them to one run in three starts last year. It’s a new year. It’s going to be different.
Skenes just may be the very best pitcher in baseball. He’s still 6-8 this year because that Pirate team is awful. We have a punchers chance. Need to run up counts, make him grind through at bats, and try to get him out after 5 innings.
Couldn’t agree more, even to the extent of playing the guys that are take solid, deep ABs, over any regular that doesn’t.
And Francona, please bat Marte behind Elly. Give it a shot. No one fears Hays right now.
Yeah, Marte just came through a pretty strong month, and I feel like he was doing that good work down in the bottom of the lineup most of the time.
Marte in July:
22 games, 85 PAs
.275 BA, .800 OPS
3 doubles, 4 HR, 11 runs
It doesn’t seem like it’s Tito’s style to shake things up too much… especially by moving a 23 year-old up in the lineup while he’s still trying to learn to play the OF?
But if Tito handed me the lineup card for a day, we might Andujar bat second and maybe Marte bat fourth.
I like it someone whoo can hit in front of and behind Elly.
Will anybody be happy if the Reds win 84 games this year? Seven game improvement over last year with basically the same team, and best record since 2013. Maybe Tito can pull off some magic but the roster construction just doesn’t seem to allow any better result to happen. Of course, Krall may look bad because he gets nothing for all the good rental players that were amassed last year. He did something but probably not enough or in the right direction to make a difference. He also said (or slipped out) indirectly that he spent almost all the budgeted money at the deadline indicating that “go big” was not an option. Same old, same old.
I understand people’s frustration. It is hard to understand that this situation with its 20 or so owner entities could be so static and risk adverse resulting in not putting forward a competitive team 75% of the time. 30 years is a long time and I am glad to have missed or lost interest in 20 of those years and easily adjust to rooting for the early 2000s Braves. Boy, that was another time.
Yes, 84 wins would be good. As for the ownership group, most of whom are passive apparently, they are simply inexcusable. Despite the small market mantra, my guess is that the Reds are printing money. Modestly wealthy individuals like Castellini didn’t get that way, nor will he stay that way, by indulging in vanity projects. His ROI exceeds his other options, or he’d be doing something else.
It just seems so odd, selfish, and borderline immoral to amass a great fortune largely on the taxpayer dime to then leave a legacy of failure and avarice when entrusted with a such a premium public asset. @LDS, you are probably right, they are in this business primarily for the good cash flow and scarcity premium.
I like the improvements the team has shown – especially in the win column – and I want to give Tito all of the credit that he might deserve for any of it – but I’d push back on this year’s team is “basically the same team” as last year’s.
– J India and J Candalerio are gone. (And the Reds are better for it.)
– Will Benson was killing the team last year. His role has been diminished to say the least.
– Austin Hays and Gavin Lux are new. They’re everyday players (for better or worse ;))
– Trevino has all of Luke Maile’s ABs and then some. (His bat has really cooled off but I’ve heard that he works really well with the pitchers.)
– Matt McLain didn’t play last year.
– Brady Singer has effectively replaced Frankie Montas’s and Graham Ashcraft’s starts in the rotation.
– Chase Burns sort of replaces what Carson Spiers gave the team in 2024.
– Ty France, Nick Martini, and Stuart Fairchild each got 150-230 PAs last year.
– Taylor Rogers is gone now but he pitched in 40 games this season. He wasn’t a Red last year iirc
Like I said, I’m ready and willing to give Tito any credit he deserves for the nice bump in wins this year, but the roster is considerably different than it was last year.
I wish Tito would give Andujar time against both left and right handed pitchers, the man can hit better than most players on the team right now.
I agree Mark.Maybe we saw something yesterday with Lux starting at second base.Reds have to do something to get Fraley and Andujar in along with Hays Lux and Marte as much as possible at the same time.MM may have to set more and maybe Steer as well.I get it about the defense.i also feel Fraley and Andujar setting and watching tonight hurts the offense and how much more can we hurt.
Man, the Brewers are frustrating to no end. I look at their roster, and it doesn’t look appreciable better than the Reds’ roster.
Then they go like 33-11 over a span of several weeks, and you look up and they have the best record in baseball.
We all used to say the Cardinals must have made a deal with the devil. I believe that deal has now expired, and he has signed a new agreement with the Brew Crew.
They win a lot of close games, they have pretty good pitching (starting and bullpen) and seem to get the most out of their team offense. I think they lead the NL in stolen bases, too. Can the Brewers keep it up until the end of the year? Are they just having a hot streak that will end, or are they really this good?
In the days of Tony Larussa as manager of the Cardinals, they had a very specific philosophy/method/pattern of pitching that all the starters followed, and it was successful. Without have any scouting on the Brewers, I am thinking that they are following the same idea.
You mention the Brewers and their starters…
They have six different guys that have started 3-5 games.
It looks like only one of them has been bad at it.
The Reds have only Suter as a “spot starter” or “opener”.
3 GS, 8 IP, 2.25 ERA
1 B, 4 K
I don’t know what the Brewers are doing or why they’ve done it, but it seems to be working for them.
All that said, the Brewers started the season 25-28 but then have gone 45-16 since then. That is unsustainable. I’ll predict they’ll go something like 26-22 the rest of the way.
I will not predict who wins the division but fwiw right now the gambling apps seem to favor the Brewers pretty heavily in the NLCentral.
(To win the NL: 1. LAD 2. PHI 3. MIL 4. NYM 5. SDP 6. CHC 7. CIN 😉 )