Things did not go well for either starting pitcher in the game to start the series in Chicago. Neither pitcher took the mound in the 3rd inning as both Nick Lodolo and Michael Soroka exited the game with injuries. That turned things over to the bullpen for each squad and both performed well given the circumstances, but the Cincinnati Reds scored two runs late to pick up a win over the Cubs on Monday night at Wrigley Field.
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds (59-54) | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Chicago Cubs (65-47) | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| W: Barlow (5-0) L: Braiser (0-1) SV: Pagan (24) | |||
| Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
The Cincinnati Reds grabbed an early lead when Tyler Stephenson crushed a solo home run in the top of the 2nd inning. Things took a turn for the worse in the bottom of the inning. After retiring the first two batters of the frame, Nick Lodolo fired a curveball to Justin Turner for a strike to start his at-bat, but then got a visit from the trainer and ultimately exited the game. It was later confirmed that he was dealing with a blister.
The Reds brought in Nick Martinez and he would finish the at-bat against Turner by getting him to fly out. When Martinez returned to the mound in the 3rd inning he gave up a single to Ian Happ to begin the inning and then Dansby Swanson homered deep into the seats in left field to put the Cubs up 2-1.
That’s where the score remained as both bullpens were able to get the job done until the top of the 6th inning. Cincinnati was able to find some luck going their way when Matt McLain tried to check his swing but made soft contact and turned it into an infield single on a ball that traveled about 20 feet. Two pitches later Elly De La Cruz made a late swing on a 96 MPH fastball and seemed to slow his bat down at the end, but he wound up making contact and grounding a ball down the third base line and it hugged the outfield wall for a double. McLain took third but left fielder Ian Happ hit the wall as he went to field the ball and lost it for a second, allowing McLain to continue running to the plate and scoring to tie the game up with De La Cruz grabbing third in the process. He would be stranded there as the next two batters failed to bring him in.
The Reds would try to get something started with two outs in the 7th inning when Jake Fraley doubled to the wall in right center. That brought Ke’Bryan Hayes to the plate and he went back to get some of that luck from the 6th inning when he made a full swing, only to hit the ball about 10 feet – but it was short enough to allow him to turn it into a single without a throw and put the go-ahead run at third base. Chicago went to the bullpen and brought in Caleb Thielbar to face TJ Friedl in a lefty-lefty matchup. The move didn’t work as Friedl hit a soft liner into center to drive in Fraley and put Cincinnati back on top by a 3-2 score.
The Cubs got a leadoff single in the bottom of the inning from Willi Castro. Graham Ashcraft would get two groundouts to follow, but each one moved Castro up a base and he was standing on third for Dansby Swanson. He hit a chopper to third and Ke’Bryan Hayes made a nice glove on a short hop while charging the ball and fired to third, but Swanson beat the throw and the game was tied. Or was it? The Reds challenged the play, which seemed odd at first because it seemed clear that Swanson beat the throw. But closer looks on replay show that he came up short of the bag on his final step before then dragging his toe on the bag, but that little mistake was enough to turn a hit into an out and the play was overturned and the Reds held onto the lead.
Tony Santillan took over for Cincinnati in the 8th and hit Pete Crow-Armstrong with the first pitch he threw. The Reds caught some luck when Nico Hoerner hit a soft liner to Matt McLain that he was able to catch and fire to first in time to double off Crow-Armstrong. Santillan then picked up a strikeout to send the game to the 9th with his team still in the lead. Emilio Pagan came on for the final inning and made easy work as he picked up two strikeouts and a groundout to end the game and seal a 3-2 Cincinnati win.
Key Moment of the Game
TJ Friedl winning the lefty-on-lefty matchup in the 7th inning. The Cubs played their hand and Friedl came out ahead with an RBI single that ultimately was the winning run.
Dansby Swanson not touching the bag and the umpires overturning the safe call to an out call to erase a run and end the inning gets a late addition runner up nod here.
Notes Worth Noting
Both starting pitchers left the game with injuries. Nick Lodolo had a blister that caused him to exit the game in the 2nd inning. Michael Soroka didn’t return to the mound after the 2nd inning with what was later described as shoulder soreness. That led to each team using five relievers and that will likely come into play over the next two days.
The Reds had three extra-base hits in the game. The Cubs only had three total hits.
Up Next for the Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs
Tuesday August 5th, 8:05pm ET
Zack Littell (8-8, 3.58 ERA) vs Shota Imanaga (8-4, 3.25 ERA)
Hopefully Lodolo comes back quickly.
Great bullpen work. Huge.
McLain and Hays need moved out of their hitting spots. Hays struggling for some time now. 10 for last 52 with 0 extra base hits. McLain under .200 on the road.
pickle juice
Hays is a gap to gap hitter but he is trying to pull everything.Just needs to go back to who he is but 10 for 52 is truly ugly.He will have to get it right cause Elly will not get much to hit unless he does.Just have to wonder if he is ailing some cause he has been at DH every other game for quite awhile.
Six pitchers combined for a 3-hitter just 24 hours after five relievers had to pitch on a scheduled day off.
Feels a little bit like “duct tape and bailing wire” but sometimes that works better than any other way!
It’s not sustainable….but it worked for 1 game.
The key to Sunday was that the main RP’s got a 2nd consecutive day of rest.
Awesome, now it would be even more awesome if Littell, Abbott, and Singer can combine for about 20+ of the next 27 IP for the Reds.
Stinks for Lodolo. He’s pitched so well. Hopefully not a major problem going forward but very concerning. Will need big innings from Littell tomorrow with bullpen covering 7+ tonight.
Littell is averaging 6 IP per start this year.
That’s better than Singer’s 5.25 average, which I assume is the best on the Reds.
Littell through a complete game in Houston earlier this season.
And he just threw 5 shutout innings against the Yankees a week ago.
Lodolo and Martinez are close to 6 IP per start for the Reds.
Abbott is best on staff per start
Throwing the curve causes the blisters. So he has to stop throwing the curve so much. This means he may have to go to the pen. Greene should be back soon and can take his place in the rotation, but what happens when it’s time to remove Burns from the rotation due to his innings limit? I guess Martinez will return to the rotation. Or, is there any hope of Miley being ready about that time?
Well managed game by Tito. To get 2 innings from Barlow when your starters (through no fault of their own) the last 2 games completed a total just 2.2 innings was also a key moment in my opinion.
I’m surprised Martinez pitched so few innings under the circumstances.
He might need to return to the rotation if Lodolo has to miss time, or Burns gets limited.
He’s within 15 innings of his career high.
The thought here is probably the unknown. Will Lodolo be able to make his regular start on Saturday? If not, then Martinez may have to fill in. Unfortunately, there is not a lot of slack here. Greene coming back helps big time. But can Burns give us starter innings through the Lodolo sorting out? Maybe 3 starts. Littell was a great pickup but covers only 1 wounded soldier. Another injury or innings limitation and we are getting in dire straits as there is nothing at Louisville. Petty is there but he hasn’t shown he is ready. Doubt they risk that in a playoff chase. Might be more prudent to push Burns an extra start or two. You have got to play to win as long as you are in the chase. The decision to chase was made just a few games ago. It is not reversible until the odds say it is.
As wins go, this one and everyone going forward is huge if we are going to overtake the Padres. They are at 62 wins and we are at 59. Glad the Lodolo injury is only a blister. Yeah, some lineup changes are definitely in order. The Cubs are certainly beatable.
Uh Oh, Lodolo has had issues with blisters before. I hope this doesn’t start messing with the way he has pitched so far this year. They may have to have someone make an emergency start from AAA. Greene is getting close though so that will help.
And Suter can pitch three innings to start a game.
Lodolo needs to wash his hands with Lava soap and scrub his hands with steel wool this offseason.
Good grief, I get the issues w guys throwing their arms out due to the insanity of all max out pitching, but the training staff should be able to figure out an off season regimen that will prevent blisters from costing the Reds a playoff spot in 2026
Suter? That certainly didn’t work on Sunday. Though, maybe the race track threw him.
Or maybe Suter was upset by how the MLB had his teammates playing in the rain and in the dark the day before.
If I remember, a blister knocked him out for quite a while last year. You’d think he’d calloused up by now.
How did the Reds win? SEaSoN iS OvER.
*Butthead voice*
They scored more.
I still don’t think they’ll really bother anyone down the stretch, but my expectations are super low too. Just keep me interested til September
SD is losing….could be within 3 of them. 4 back of the Mets & 6.5 to the Cubs
In his small sample size, Hayes hasn’t looked like a wizard with the glove or an automatic out. Again, very small sample.
He was the reason behind that nice play at 1st that got overturned by replay. I’ll give him a little credit and hitting wise he has been all right so far. Like you mentioned very small sample size though.
He’s a glove wizard, despite the error a few games ago. Great play tonight saved a run. He was a decent hitter early in his career. In 2023, he had a .762 OPS+ with 15 HR. The last year and a half, however, his offense has disappeared. Part of that is confidence. Another part is probably bad luck. His hard hit ball percentage is about the same as it was in 2023, and it’s right at league average. If he can hit to a 700 OPS, he’s a valuable player. If he’s the hitter he was in 2024, we have not spent our $$ wisely.
Yet, he keeps ‘hitting’ the ball on the ground.
Both very true!
I think the acquisition of Hayes is a Francona thing in setting up his team. Solid defense at third base is always a positive.
Reds pitching has kept them in games all year long,Friedl won the battle against the lefty and knocked in the lead run.Never saw a play like Swanson’ before coming up short while striding to first base then was aware enough to drag the other foot across the base.Good work in the dugout to call for the challenge when everybody knew he had beat the throw.Well you take em anyway you can get em.
Checking out some interesting stuff on Statcast. Some predictable info, but some is strange:
Exit velocity:
#1 Tyler Stephenson 91.5
#2 Elly 91 mph
#3 K Hayes 90 mph
Benson 93.3 & Hinds 92.5 (contact matters)
Launch angle is where Elly & Hayes get in trouble though:
Elly 7.5
Hayes 9.5
By comparison CES 21, Fraley 19.1, Steer 17.9, Stephenson 17, MM 16.4
Elly gets his launch angle up and top line speed back and he’s easily top 5 hitter in the game
Of the 6 guys you listed with LAs greater than EDLC’s, which would you take over him. None. He’s walking more, striking out less, hitting more, and making fewer errors. Chasing LA is fools gold Let it come naturally. I’m more concerned with his loss of speed, which I’ve seen attributed to injury, though I suppose it may be related to any number of other factors.
So is he still expected to run as fast if he’s injured? Seems like you answered you own question.
True, but its hard to hit many HRs with a ground ball % like Elly’s.
Espinal has only barreled up 2 balls all year. Thats seems crazy?
Lux only barrels up 3.4% but yet his EV is better then Fraley? (88.4 to 85.3). Strange?
Freidl only 86.8 and Fraley 85.3 but they’re both above average ops
Fraley has always had a soft contact avg. because any ball that he doesn’t pull usually has a velo of 60-70 mph.
Fraley is a dead pull hitter, and with authority most of the time.
He is one of the only Reds that I don’t want to attempt to go oppo.
Totally agree LDS, he is a much better hitter this year. Line drives is where it’s at. Singles, doubles and good at bats win games. Launch angle in my opinion is nonsense.
I found it weird when when the Acquired Hayes, that Krall said “we liked the exit velo of Hayes…we think we can work with him to get more launch angle.
Has anyone working with Elly and his launch angle? It was reported a few weeks ago that Elly is 4th in MLB in ground ball rate.
So we got guys that can help Hayes, while Elly continues to hit ground balls?
Chasing LA is foolish in the extreme. Just one more thing Krall misunderstands. “Analytics “ is destroying the game because too many think they mean something more than they actually do. They don’t tell you how to play the game. They tell you how you PLAYED the game. Chasing LA/EV won’t automatically make the hitter better and may well make them worse.
To be clear – analytics isn’t ruining the game. Some people misinterpreting numbers is (in your opinion). Being specific matters here.
Stats are a tool to be used, we all use them even if they’re just the basics whether we prefer to admit it or not. Ignoring that is asinine. If youre chasing spin rates and EVs you might end up disappointed, I think many proponents of analytics get this. Telling a player to increase any of those takes talent/coaching/practice/adjustments, stats alone are just measuring the results.
Id prefer to understand what the stats are trying to say, and use them in tandem with the eye test before I truly try and understand a player. Cutting off a source of info isnt my way, simple as that. Both sides have something to offer.
Re: “Stats are a tool to be used, we all use them even if they’re just the basics whether we prefer to admit it or not. Ignoring that is asinine.”
Never was a more true statement posted on RLN. You have to know what tools are used best for before you can use them correctly.
Don’t be the guy trying to drive in a Phillips head screw with a sledge hammer.
There are, by the way, many people on this forum who would be glad to explain what some of these tools are good for if anyone would like to expand their tool chest.
With Elly’s speed you would think the thought would be for him to hit more ground balls. When fast guys fly out a lot there is the call for him to hit more ground balls. In Elly’s case superstars should not be worrying about such things as they should be good at both.
Biggest thing I got out of studying Statcast is
Hayes might have more ceiling then we thought.
Hard hit rate 45.5% is almost equal to Elly’s 45.7 and EV is close to Elly as well
Stephenson is a pretty good hitting catcher. Must be unlucky this year:
Hard hit rate 52.6% is the best on the team besides Will Benson’s 56.5. EV higher then Elly’s as well. I know Tyler has K’d a ton lately. All this Statcast stuff only comes in when you put it in play
His hard hit rate is the highest of his career. Unfortunately, his HR rate is about the same as it ever was. So hitting it harder, without the homers to show for it.
But his K% is at an all time high of 35.2% too.
So more than 1/3rd of his AB’s are empty as they come.
Doesn’t it seem like half of those K’s are looking though?
Regarding Ty Steve.
Stephenson’s SO% going into the season was 23.6%, so the 35.2% SO% this season is alarmng.
If Hayes’ launch angle were a little higher we might see a different hitter entirely. Odd as heck trade, but he has the talent to maybe unlock something if we’re patient. The K rate is a bit worrisome for sure.
You have to figure in how often you hit a ball too, also how often you walk, how often you strike out, how often you hit into a double play, how is your defense, can you steel a base, can you run bases and have a fundamentals ability. I hate always reading about exit velocity. Stuff like that doesn’t matter when u pull a ball hard to third base for an unproductive out when a weak grounder to second moves the runner up.
That’s true enough, but a good deal of what happens in an at bat is out of the hitter’s control. Where a ground ball goes, for instance. Or, more specifically, whether a defender makes the play on it.
My list of concerns: 1) Lodolo; 2) the offense with two outs. We were winning games not long ago due to that accomplishment, but it seems to have faded again, minus the game winner by TJ. Offense still limping. 3) Ashcraft. The game is tied and takes on an entirely different flavor if their guy accurately runs the bases.
Our pitching was outstanding holding their offense to three hits. Let’s do it again tomorrow!
Ashcraft has been a bit unlucky this year imo. Gives up a lot of broken bat hits and defense behind him has been shoddy at times. Otoh, walk rate is too high.
Nice win at the friendly confines. Had great seats and walked out smiling! The Reds played clean baseball, at least relative to the Cubs. Pitching and defense…..like it or not, this is the way.
That 7th inning stretch looked fun. I wish the reds had something cool like that.. The annoying wooh doesn’t count.
Reds took advantage of fortune with outstanding pitching combined in this game, that’s not often they being lucky.
Hope for a great Littell debut tomorrow against Imanaga. We know Imanaga is tough so Reds should rely on Littell’s performance.
Maybe Lodolo was removed on time before the blister got worse so he could heal soon and won’t miss next start…
He said that he caught it earlier than he has before, but the IL is apparently a significant possibility. Blisters take a while to heal.
Especially if you want to throw anymore curve balls
Or sliders, which I think I read was the pitch he tore it on. I might be wrong.
Hey RedsGettingBetter,
Maybe Lodolo was removed on time before the blister got worse so he could heal soon and won’t miss next start”…
I was hoping/thinking the exact same thing when they took him out.
He basically took himself out instead of pushing it like the last time. I sure he’ll be fine, not a worrying injury unless you’re compensating for it. Just let it heal, I don’t care how long it takes as long as its dealt with properly.
3 straight hits with 2 outs to score what ended up to be the winning run. That does not happen very often for the Reds. Being a Reds fan is not for the faint of heart this season. Most games will be like this, pitching keeps the game within striking distance and offense comes around, hopefully more often than not, to win the game. 3XBH and a few singles, needed every bit of it. Can’t win without XBH. Play clean baseball on defense too. Go Reds.
Feels like reds will come out of hitting slump at some point like they have all season. Just in time and set up to make a run. Six games in a row against mets and padres early September. As long as position players stay healthy, plenty of games left to make it happen. GO REDS this is big fun
Diaz,Iglesias,Rogers all former Reds pitchers that we have faced in the last few games and they all were successful against us. If all of our pitchers were able to face our offense everyday they might all be all-stars.
Yet again, it becomes glaringly obvious that they didn’t do enough before the deadline. They won this one, luckily, but lost the other 2 games since the deadline where needs that weren’t addressed cost them.
Steer’s bat is a huge disappointment this season, but he’s been really good on D.
Too many SOs in this one, but at least they had 3 extra-base hits!
Fun fact. The MLB average this season for XBH/G is 2.9.
The Reds peaked in June with 2.8 XBH per game.
They went 15-11 in June. 😉
Interestingly, June was the pitching staff’s worst month and the Reds actually got outscored in June 124-123.
Reds team ERA by month:
Mar/Apr – 3.65
May – 3.80
June – 4.35
July – 3.90
Another interesting note:
Reds team ERA at GABP – 3.75
Reds team ERA on road – 4.00
The play Hayes made at 3rd to throw out Swanson at 1st was txt book, not a second wasted. He didn’t have a second to waste. The double play in the eighth inning was well done by MM. The ball bounced our way tonight for sure.
Hayes did re-grip the ball before making the throw, which might explain why Swanson would have been safe had he not screwed his steps up.
Wow, I absolutely couldn’t see his regrip. Bang bang play, so I would not say Swanson screw up. Even if Swanson stepped on the plate, I would not blame it on Hayes. I would blame Ashcraft 🙂
Absolutely wouldn’t blame Hayes either. He made a good play.
I wouldn’t have blamed Ashcraft either, as he induced Swanson to hit it 65 MPH. Ian Happ before him hit it at 46 MPH. Busch before him hit it 63 MPH.
Castro’s lead off single however, was smashed at 106.
All those week grounders allowed him to get to 3rd.
A key win for the Reds in their ‘on again/off again’ run for the playoffs. A nice job with the pitching by Francona/Johnson.
Schwarber is going crazy. The Reds can’t afford a hometown discount at this point, if that rumor was even true that he wanted to play for his hometown team. I read where Cody Bellinger might opt. Thats a ton of $ too, but the Reds will have Martinez $21 mil off the books. They need to do something big at some point or just totally waste some outstanding talent in their prime like Elly, HG, Burns, Marte, etc. I also assumed Tito didn’t come back just to go 83-79 for a few years.
Think you have nailed it. Has been the case since last winter and we continue to swing and miss at getable targets like Tucker and Suarez. But I don’t think free agents like Schwarber is even close to a potential Reds target. That is money like $150M for 4 years. That is Dodger Yank territory. Our wheelhouse needs to be the expiring contracts and receiving team’s desire for younger players/prospects. We have as many of those as anybody. San Diego’s farm system was rated rather poorly and they managed to trade farm guys for OHearn and Laureano. The salary burdens ends in October for rental like guys and we need to be registering presence in this area.
Very weird game, but I stuck it out and so did our Boyz. Bullpens are stretched on both sides. Need to take at least one of the next two and sweeping the Stupid Cubs would be extra sweet.
Soroka to the IL with a shoulder issue … that could be ugly for them. Hoping Lodolo saw the signs and headed off a major blister issue. They’ve got to find a way to keep this from happening so frequently. He’s obviously prone to it.
Lodolo said he was proactive at the first sign of the blister, which should limit how much time he’ll miss if any.
Heck of a win by the Redlegs! Hoping no more than one missed start for Lodolo, especially as it looks like Greene is going to get one more rehab start? Really don’t understand the batting order, especially with Andujar AND Marte sitting at the same time, but we won, so Tito worked his magic. Hoping Littell can work his tonight for at least 6 innings, maybe when 7.
Was at the Phillies game – Schwarber had 3 hits including a 2 run blast and first pitch grand slam, 3-4 on the night. He ain’t coming cheap, but highly doubtful he leaves. He’s having a monster year, cruising towards 50+ homers and a top 10 MVP finish.
I agree. Philly fans would burn the city down if they let Schwarber walk.
I’ve been concern trolling my Cub fan friends about their trade deadline moves. With their competitive window this year and maybe next before a slew of players reach free agency, it’s a head scratcher why they didn’t go get any impact pitching, instead settling for a back of the rotation guy who is now injured for an extended period. I guess they think they’ll slug their way thru the playoffs. Hoping the dog days won’t be too kind to them, as a handful of guys (Kelly, Busch, Boyd, Keller) are due for a regression to the mean if based on their careers to this point.
Plenty of need for starters across the league, but not too many quality starters got traded at the deadline.
That stinks about Lodolo, but if Greene is ready to go, we shouldn’t miss a beat.
Well, it’s actually better to have both of those guys at the same time, over having a Burns/NMart start. So yes, they are missing a beat by not firing on all cylinders.
@VA, it’s obvious that a fully healthy team is better than one that’s not, so it shouldn’t even need to be said.
Quick shout out to Emilio Pagan. 3 pitch mix, touching 98 last night. Dude has been rock solid—0.90 WHIP, 0.163 BA, 57Ks in 48IP. Finishing up a 2yr/$16mil deal, age 34. Wondering if he’d be on board with a similar deal….
Especially considering they never blow anyone out so Barlow, Tony, and Pagan get used constantly. They need atleast one good lefty for next year and atleast 1 proven high leverage to shorten the game like good teams do. I’m unsure about Hays, but def like to have Pagan back
I am excited about 2026 if the Reds make the right moves. Must have home run power at the outfield corners and 1B. Steer is a great fielding 1B so perhaps he can function as a defensive replacement and occasional starter. Hayes is not going anywhere as his contract cements him into the 3B spot. Elly and McClain and Stephenson as well. So any movement in the line up must involve the corner out fielders and DH. Rodriguez, Hines, and CES are knocking at the door. They all need the same chance that was given to Fraley and Benson who are platoon players at best.
All of the AAA players should spend the winter in Arizona hitting off “retired” major league pitchers who can still throw good breaking pitches! Not sure why teams do not this as a routine.
As far as September I think they need to bring up their best relievers and Stewart and Rodriguez.
I doubt Hines or CES ever get a legit chance now. Stewart probably (rightfully) passed CES for 1B/DH. Hines is a little younger so maybe he gets another platoon chance?
Good OFer, good arm, very good speed/power. Why not have a guy that can pinch-hit or come in late and hit one deep? Espinal isn’t going to do it. Pinch run….anything you need except keep his helmut on when he swings.
Does Hines helmut always fall off at AAA because he overswings? I would think not…Jim probably knows. He just needs to relax when he’s with the Reds
At AAA, Hinds’ helmet shifts around but doesn’t seem to fly off often except when he is full tilt burst sprinting on the bases and decelerates to slide or as he crosses first base on a close play, much the same as EDLC.
FWIW or not, there are PAs at AAA when he exudes menace with his body language as he addresses the pitcher. This is an eye thing to my mind; but, I haven’t seen the same at MLB.
He is rarely seeing 4 seam fastballs anymore, even at AAA, other than chase bait, which he is doing a much better job of laying off. His big contacts last week (3HR and a couple of other hits) were on cutters, sliders, and curves that were too fat over the plate.
Here’s Hinds’ stats for his 5 most recent AAA games (July 25- Aug 3; recall he was with the Reds 2 days during this period). They were accrued versus 2 teams.
Triple slash (18PAs) .333/.455/1.056 (OPS=1.510) 4 HR; K Rate 25%; BB Rate 25%.
Every time he gets sent down, after seeing MLB pitching, he does better than he was doing before he was sent down.
This is why I am going to have to be convinced by seeing it happen that he is not ready and capable of adjusting to MLB pitching when he sees it at a regular rate and progression, though games, and not being pulled or inserted mid-game.
I’m with Jim on Hinds.
The Reds aren’t really going to know what they have in Hinds until he’s played every day for 10-16 weeks. Whether they are going to commit to that is unknown, but a team like the White Sox or rebuilding Twins or Rays would give him a shot.
Dismissing him as an “AAAA hitter” misses the mark; he didn’t really destroy AAA pitching until this season. He had a strong age-22 season in 2023 with Chattanooga, but he had only a .658 OPS in AAA last year.
@OBE>>
The two things I notice about Hinds’ improvement at AAA from 2024 to 2025 are that he has increased his OBP from .282 to .382 and lowered his K rate from 37.9% to 26.2%. His BB rate has gone from 8.8% to 10.0%. These numbers are based on 422 PAs at AAA in 2024 and 309PAs so far in 2025.
Updating Doug’s triple slash for Hinds since Jun1 listed in a game preview recently, those numbers now are .352/.431/.696 (1.127 OPS) with a 22.9% K rate and 11.1% BB rate over (144 PAs), which represents more than just a hot streak.
You can only bring up 2 players now in September.
The roster can only expand from 26 to 28, with a maximum of 14 pitchers.
So 1 position player and 1 pitcher will be all there is.
If they expanded today, it would likely be Benson and Richardson.
I’m not convinced that Benson is a “platoon player at best”. I understand that his numbers against lefties this year are not impressive. But it’s also a really small sample size. Baseball Reference has him with 21 plate appearances against lefties this year, out of 201 total. He’s had some good at bats against lefties lately – I can remember two late, key hits including an opposite field home run that win a game – and his overall rates (EV, hard hit %) are good. It’s makes no sense to write him off as a full time player based on 21 at bats. And we know the upside is high. He won a player of the week award with about the same number of plate appearances. Why not cherry pick those at bats? The Reds seem to keep choosing sustained mediocrity at the plate over higher ceiling guys. On a team desperate for offense, I just don’t get it. Free Will Benson!
yes!
Benson has 142 PAs against LHP and an OPS of .495 in his Major League career. Unfortunately, the track record is not good.
That was a very entertaining baseball game and glad it went the Reds way. Im sure cubs fans are frustrated losing that game and falling 3 games behind the Brewers. Hopefully, Reds can get the series W today and back to 6 over, the high water mark of the year. . Sounded like bullpen reinforcements from AAA are on the way today from Tito post game presser.
Hinds, CES, Benson,Rodriguez and Stewart.
Hayes at 3rd, Elly at ss Mclain at 2nd, Steer at 1st. Friedl in center field and Stephenson behind the plate.
While this season had been a rollar coaster of fun. Next season roster construction will be interesting.
Padres lost.
Mets lost.
Mets are 4-6 in last 10, 10-10 in last 20, 15-15 in last 30.
Both the Mets and Padres WP% on the season put them both close to 89/90-win pace, and the Reds are only at an 85-win pace but!…
Reds are 12-8 in their last 20
The Reds have had one bad month this season: 13-15 in May.
The Padres has a 13-15 month, and the Mets had a 12-15 month.
But as far this week’s scoreboard watching…
Go Reds! Beat the Cubs! Beat the Pirates!
Go Guardians! Go Brewers! … Beat the Mets!
Go Dbacks! Go Red Sox! … Beat the Padres!
Lot of ways to look at things going forward and its fun.Post season or not Tito has found out some things about some players and we will see after the season as to what happens going forward.Right now its game by game.Barring injury its this roster that will play the next 50 games.Reds have a chance in every game if the starters keep it close like last night and the Reds come back like last night.Not sure I like the recipe for winning but its the only one we have to cook with.Hope Lodolo doesn’t miss much time cause it will hurt.GO REDS
+1
It can be fun watching this team from “the edge of your seat.”
I don’t know enough a lot about lineup construction and in-game management of bullpens and pitching management, but I have been watching and listening to the Reds saying, “Alright, Tito.. Let’s see if these guys can do what you need them to do.”
I guess that makes me something of a Tito “fanboy” but it’s more fun (for me) to count all of the times in the games when a certain at-bat or a certain play might go the Reds’ way and give em a lead or a win.
(Or when a certain hard-hit ball almost clears the fence for a big home run.)
For me, watching this way sure beats following them and grumbling, “Agh! This team can’t hit! How does Krall not realize that this team can’t hit!”
The Reds may or may not have better hitters in their 2026 lineup. But in August of 2025, Tito has this squad scrapping and drawing walks and knocking singles and defense-ing their way to 85-90 wins. I believe that.
Basically, I like to focus on what the Reds are quietly doing well. I assume that Tito knows what those things are and he tries to win games using the tools/features that this roster has instead of wondering where all of the XBH are.
Some context:
batters’ walks per game
Reds 3.4
Brewers 3.4
Padres 3.2
doubles per game
Reds 1.5
Brewers 1.5
Padres 1.5
HR per game
Reds 1.0
Brewers 1.0
Padres 0.8
OBP
Brewers .330
Reds .320
Padres .320
SLG%
Brewers .395
Reds .390
Padres .380
My response to a lot of these numbers is “Huh! I wouldn’t have guessed that.” Thanks Leonard for bringing some informative posts like this that make me reconsider my guesses!
Really nice game today. Fought through adversity, nice handling and execution of bullpen game, solid defense with nary a blunder that comes to mind and 3 consecutive 2-out hits. As noted many times before, these 2-1, 3-2 type games are the ones this team has to win to upset the 20/80 odds now confronting them. By contrast, the Cubs muffed a few balls, missed a base!, and did not gain any traction with the bat. Also, mister PCA seems an easy out since he swings at everything. Now, if this Reds team can just build on momentum…big comeback win after that racetrack nonsense.
Hope fans have patience with Franona. I do think he is trying to build a winning culture but that could take a season or 2. The style of play isnt really what we are used to as reds fans but we have won some games this year that normally we would not have. Last night being one of them.
+1
That’s a good point. I think patience is thin with many fans because of the long drought without playoff success and rebuilding. But even Counsell with the Cubs they weren’t too great his first year. Maybe 2026 is really the year for Francona and the Reds to be a 90 win type of team.
I would not be surprised if the two words “maybe” and “hope” would be the most often used words when fans make their posts over the years.
I have patience with Tito. I have lost patience with the guy who hasn’t improved the roster in 4 years and won’t trade prospects to bring in necessary improvement pieces. Equals sustained mediocrity. The goal is 87-88 wins. Whatever it takes.
Baseball is just great! The grind of Aug/Sept separate the will. No excuses, the boys in the other dugout are dealing with the same trials and challenges. A capacity crowd rises to its feet, roaring because the tying run is 90 feet away. Plays decided by an eyelash add up and you win a close one. The boys of Summer are giving it their all.
HR power is the biggest problem with this team; therefore, it’s the number one thing that needs to be addressed in the offseason.
We have 116 HR’s good for 21st place. We have famously one of the most HR friendly ball parks in baseball.
Trade with the A’s
1B/C Soderstrom for Lowder, Collier
Sign Schwarber 4 years $100M
Sign Chapman 2 years $25M
1 Friedl (CF) 2 EDLC (SS) 3 Schwarber (DH)
4 Marte (RF) 5 Soderstrom (1B) 6 Stephenson (C)
7 McLain (2B) 8 Rodriguez (LF) 8 Hayes (3B)
Trevino (C) Benson (OF)
Lux (INF/OF) Steer (INF/OF)
Greene, Abbott, Burns, Lodolo, Singer
Chapman, Santillian, Moll,
Ashcraft, Williamson, Richarson, Suter
8th Man (Parks, Phillips, Aguiar, Mey, Maxwell, FA)
The Reds have 116 HR
MLB team average is 128
I realize that many fans want the Reds to have MORE than any league-average numbers but take a look at that 128 number:
Matt McLain is working through his recovery from shoulder surgery and has not had a great season at the plate. His number say we might have expected 17 HR from him to this point in 2025. He has 11.
Spencer Steer is also evidently playing this season at less than 100% healthy. His 2025 XBH and SLG% are down. His numbers say we might have expected 13 HR instead of just 12.
So right there are 7 “missing home runs” that might move the Reds up from #22 on the team HR list up to #13, just behind the MLB-average.
Add in another 8-10 HRs from another 50-60 games of Noelvi Marte instead of just 7 HR in 40 Marte games, and the Reds would be a better than average home run hitting team.
I realize that every team’s fans can point to guys with injuries and guys recovering from injuries, so I this little thought experiment may not mean too much, but I think it shows that at least BEFORE the 2025 season, Krall and Tito may have thought that they had enough home run power on the roster.
And a lot of fans don’t like this pointed out – but CES and Will Benson could have provided some power as depth pieces this year. But they just didn’t perform.
Why does every Reds fan want to be average? I really don’t understand that mentality.
You don’t win this game by being average, you win this game by being better than everyone else.
Also, every team deals with injuries, so pointing to them as the solution is no helpful. Guess what we are going to have injuries in 2026 as well, and 2027, and 2028, etc.
We need to add bats in the lineup that other teams fear.
I don’t usually get upset by comments, but today I must be feeling a bit frustrated.
Not one suggestion I made is overly costly from a prospect or monetary standpoint, so what’s your issue with them?
If you say Schwarber is washed up, at least it’s a reason, it’d be an incorrect appraisal, but it would have a point. You seem to want the Reds to stay stagnate with no plan to improve.
Let me guess the Rookies that are coming are the solution?
I’m as excited as anyone about what’s coming up through the farm, but we need to also add “proven” MLB talent to push us over the top, or we will remain in the middle, average, mediocre, stagnant.
I am not saying I want the team to be average… And certainly not “every Reds fan wants to be average.” (???)
I am trying to point out that the Reds don’t “stink at hitting” like so many seem to complain.
I mean, I guess if you compare the Reds to certain lofty standards, you might conclude that the stink. But if you compare them to other MLB teams (especially those playing at an 85-90 win pace), the Reds are not toooo far off offensively. I think that’s an interesting and sometimes helpful way to look at things this season.
I, for one, expected that Elly might have hit more homers this year. He’s got the power.
@Green, I agree, but I think it’s because he’s been mostly on an island. McLain hasn’t had a good year in front of him, and there hasn’t been a consistent presence in the 4 hole.
@Leonard, “I am not saying I want the team to be average…”
You certainly did,
“I realize that many fans want the Reds to have MORE than any league-average numbers but take a look at that 128 number:”
You were adding up all of the missed HRs from our injured and removing players to show how we too could become average.
Why would you capitalize MORE if you weren’t ridiculing the idea that more HR is better.
Then you later say that Tito and Krall don’t want more power on his team. I don’t know any coach or GM that would say no to a DH that is currently leading the NL in HRs with 40, while hitting .258/.352/.593.
We don’t have players like that because Bob has put Krall on a shoestring budget, not because they are not valuable.
You are the exact fan Phil wants, I mean “where else are you going to go?”
“injured and removing” injured and recovering
I did not capitalize anything in any attempt to ridicule anything.
Sometimes the Internet attaches a belligerent or sarcastic tone to a statement where it’s not at all intended.
So, let me clarify…
I am not saying that I want the Reds to be average and then be satisfied with being average.
Again, the point I was trying to make is that while the Reds might rank #22 in MLB with only 116 HRs this season, with some better luck with injuries, they are really not that far off from the middle of the pack or even better.
None of this should change your opinion that the Reds should trade for more power. (I – and most – think they should definitely do something via trade or a FA signing in the offseason.)
I just wanted to point out that they aren’t completely lacking in power and probably recognize that their plans for average-to-good power this season just didn’t work.
Let the trade scenario talk commence!
(I’m being sincere here, btw).
Regardless of how one looks at the numbers, the Reds will be better off in 2026 if they have more power than what the 2025 Reds have put up so far.
re:
“You are the exact fan Phil wants, I mean “where else are you going to go?”
This is wrong.
I am no fan of the Castellini ownership group.
I am not going to be satisfied if Tito put up three years of 87 wins and the Reds never get to the sixth or seventh game of an NLCS.
Your posts tell me that you are the same kind of fan.
I think the difference may be that I had what I considered reasonable 81-81 expectations for this season, and am happy that they are playing better than that. And I am content with Krall not having traded away the better prospects in order to try to chase down the Padres for NLWC#3 this year.
That doesn’t make me some kind of dopey, naive, yes-man fan.
“Why does every Reds fan want to be average? I really don’t understand that mentality.”
These fans were raised on the opposite side of the lake from the city of Lake Woebegone. In their hometown, all the kids had to be below average to make up for all the kids in Woebegone being above average. 😉
They aren’t likely to sign Schwarber. I’ve seen forecasts already that have him at $30m+ AAV. That’s not in the Reds’ “budget”. And trading Lowder or even Collier at this point, given the sorry state of Reds’ hitting and pitching seems risky. And I’d be real surprised to see the A’s trade Soderstrom that cheaply. Yes, the Reds need to do something. Unlike most here, I think better situational hitting is more important presently than more power. More power comes from dumping guys like Joe, Espinal, Fraley, Benson, Hays. Are you ready to do that? Are the Reds? They have power in Louisville. Call up Hinds and play him every day. If he crashes and burns, keep looking. The Reds are 2-7 in extra-inning games this year. Not to mention how frequently they have had a couple on base with no one out and scored nothing. So., while a HR would be nice in those spots, a single or a double would often do the job. How many games have the Reds scored 3 or fewer runs? Too many. Better roster construction would help, though Krall doesn’t seem up to the task. And giving Francona more time to cure them of their mistake prone play will help.
IDK about $30 AAV, he signed a 4 year $79M deal when he was 28. The market certainly has moved up in the last 4 years, but so has his age, he’s a 32-year-old DH, that can play some LF if need be.
I’m guessing my number is closer to reality, but we’ll see what happens.
BTW, we may disagree, but thanks for making an argument that makes sense. It’s a lot more fun to debate ideas when both sides put in a good faith attempt to prove their point.
Collier would become redundant if we got Soderstrom, so it’s a good piece to give up. I like Lowder to, but we need to give up real value to get real value.
As for the A’s, I think we’re in better shape than you think we are. Their goal is for 2028 when they move into their new stadium in Vegas.
Soderstrom (116 OPS+) was a Catcher that got move to 1B because they already had Langeliers (123 OPS+).
Kurtz (179 OPS+) came up and set the world on fire, and to make room for him they sent a catcher (Soderstrom) into LF.
DH was already full with Rooker (129 OPS+), so that wasn’t not an option either.
Soderstrom is the 2nd best option at his 3 best positions, C/1B/DH.
If the A’s want to be good for 2028 they need pitching and they will want to replace his bat for the future, this answers both of their needs, and it gives us the player we need for our focus which is the 2026 – 2029 run.
I am with you but what I have struggled with is this new hitting approach.I don’t get how or why that leads to so many strikeouts or does it and shouldn’t that lead to better situational hitting or not.Maybe I just don’t get the oppo approach but isn’t that going the other way on pitches away or letting the ball travel a little further pulling the hands in and shooting it the other way.That is a talent and I get it and maybe they aren’t all in on it yet.For example today Hays is just gripping and ripping after he told of right after the break some practiced on that stroke and the first game back he goes yard to right center.Puzzling.Anyway this is not a power hitting team to begin with thus the change in approach.However unless they move the fences back in GABP or acquire power at a couple of spots well its going to hinder his team from taking the next step from average to above average.Maybe we are truly a year away.
Hey, @MBS, I’d like you to be right, though nothing in recent Reds’ history convinces me that you will be. But the offseason is coming far too soon. and we can all go back to our usual anticipation and optimism, only to take a shot in the cup as we do most years. This year, yeah, it’s going to be different.
Why exactly would the A’s, who want to be semi-competitive when their LV park opens, trade a 23-year-old Soderstrom, over whom the A’s have 4 more of control?? If you think the A’s would give up Soderstrom for Lowder and Collier, doesn’t that necessarily indicate that the A’s like the Reds’ prospects better than Soderstrom? And why do you think the A’s are wrong about a guy that they know well?
Soderstrom is slashing .207/.233/.264 against LH-pitching. He isn’t a catcher; he hasn’t done that on the MLB level since 2023, except for a 4-inning emergency stint in 2024. In 21 innings catching in 2024 at AAA, he had 5 passed balls. You want to give up Lowder and Collier for platoon player, under the theory that it will make the Reds better in the long run?
5 PBs in 21 games. Even Alan Knicely wouldn’t have 5 PBs in 21 innings.
“If you think the A’s would give up Soderstrom for Lowder and Collier, doesn’t that necessarily indicate that the A’s like the Reds’ prospects better than Soderstrom?”
The teams are in two different positions. The A’s have a 49/65 record with a stated focus on 2028. The Reds are 59/54 and are likely entering their best window of opportunity in over a decade.
Their different positions will have them value different players. That’s really how all trade work. Trades don’t need to be uneven, they just need to fit the needs of the respective clubs.
In this case we’d both be trading from our respective depths with players at different timelines.
I laid out my argument above for why they could trade away Soderstrom. He’s their 2nd best catcher, 2nd best 1B, 2nd best DH.
They would also be replacing the bat with another similar batting profile with more years of control, while improving their pitching. Their pitching is their biggest weakness at the moment.
I’d still be surprised if the Reds win 2 of 3 against the Cubs but I like their better after last night especially with Abbott pitching tomorrow.
Will be really interesting to see how the new guys perform with Littell pitching and probably Andujar in the lineup. You’d think at some point they’d be a little better against left handed pitchers.
like their chances
I was shouting from the rooftops at the trade deadline that Lodolo’s value in a trade was never higher. He gets hurt….every….single….year….and starting pitching is the one thing we are deep in, especially after acquiring Littell. The next step is he is going to try to change something to account for the blisters and he is going to mess something else up.
Why would you want to trade Lodolo? That makes no sense and the Reds arent as deep in starting pitching as you suggest. Petty has flopped at triple A, Miley is done for year, Lowder is not coming back this year or if he does maybe late September. Greene is himself coming off a injury. Yesterday it was trade Greene, and today its trade Lodolo.
Trading Lodolo so soon after his latest injury would send up red flags a plenty for teams interested. Why would the Reds suddenly trade one of their best SP right after yet another blister injury. If this injury was solvable surely by now they would have solved it and the Reds would not be trying to trade such a valuable commodity. I don’t know, nor do I remember when a player had this much trouble with a blister and if so what was the outcome. What a blow that would be to the Reds if they had to send him to the bullpen.
Trading Lodolo or Greene or Burns have been foolish in July. Krall went for his version of All In and not looking toward 2026. Great but probably well shot of what will be needed to makeup 4-6 games on other teams.
That said, if we don’t finish strong and make the playoffs, Krall absolutely must get out of the box with his overrated players and prospects. It ain’t working. I would have very very few untouchables and Lodolo, Burns, Stewart, Marte, Stephenson, et al would not be on that list come next winter. 4 years with the same old same old bad taste is long. Playoffs must be the ultimatum.
Shouting from the rooftops can be frustrating for your neighbors.
And it might get you taken in for a mental health evaluation.
Trading a pitcher with wicked stuff for getting a blister is a bit extreme.
Just get some Stan’s Rodeo Ointment, developed by former Dodger trainer Stan Johnston (a former bull rider), specifically for blisters. MLB teams have been using it for decades. They will get it fixed. And even if it lingers a bit, there are a ton of ways to grip a curve ball, without changing the arm motion.
Waiting to see what roster moves Reds make today. It will give some insight into Lodolo status, plan for Greene return, Martines returning to rotation, etc. But most of all, waiting for the game to start. I like another more than another nail biter and Reds come out on top.
Lodolo went on the IL with the blister issue in June 2024. He missed the bare minimum 15 days and was re-activated.
I expect he’ll miss a couple starts and be right back.
Certainly hope so.
I saw that the Reds planned to have Greene make one more rehab start on Friday. Might the Lodolo injury change their plans?
If not, then I assume Burns still goes on Friday, and they let Martinez make Lodolo’s next scheduled start on Saturday.
I didn’t see the Greene item, but if so, you are probably right that they would start Burns (who gave 1 inning on Saturday) on Friday.
They are not now in the position to have a “bullpen game.”
Rather than use Burns in the bullpen down the stretch, I think they need to consider him as an opener for 2 innings every 4-5 games. It would keep him on his regular routine as a starter, and allow for a lesser “bulk” pitcher to enter the game in 3rd to face (in theory) the lower part of the order. The bulk pitcher could then (again, in theory) go through 18 hitters and the 6th inning.
Yes!
Burns as an opener! Bang that drum!
Burns 1st time through a batting order:
.215 BA, .630 OPS
1 HR, 6 walks, 28 strikeouts
Burns 2nd time through an order:
.350 BA, 1.085 OPS
3 HR, 4 walks, 13 strikeouts
He was evidently tipping his pitches in the terrible start he had against the Red Sox – when he didn’t even record two outs.
If you take out those 5 hits and 2 walks, the above “opener numbers would be even more impressive