Matt McLain is an excellent baseball player. Too many people seem to be underrating him.
Matt McLain lost a year to a shoulder injury. What do we know, from long history, about injuries like this?
- It takes a minute to get back into the swing.
- Shoulder injuries hold power down for about a year after return.
For two months, McLain was a terrible hitter. This should not have been unexpected.
For the last two months, he has been a very good hitter, posting a .269/.345/.410 line that is good for a wRC+ of 110. The league average for a second baseman is .243/.309/.374, which yields a wRC+ of 91.
Did Matt McLain have a dip to start the season? Yup. Is his power down this year? Also yup. His ISO (slugging – average) is lower than its’ ever been before, including in the minors. Do we know why? Yes. Yes we do.
And we haven’t even talked about his defense and baserunning. The available metrics all rate him as somewhere between really, really good, and elite in those areas. Remember, a bunch of folks here wanted McLain to be the shortstop not that long ago. As is, he’s an excellent second baseman. And that matters. A lot.
So, you have a 25-year-old coming off a major injury that we should expect to cost him his power this year. He is an excellent defender and baserunner and, after, a slow start, has been an above-average hitter at a position without many good hitters.
I understand the compulsion to looks at a guy’s basic stats for this year and assume that’s who he is. But my goodness, we all follow baseball closely. We all know how it has ups and downs. McLain starting the season down was one of the most predictable things imaginable. It has not been the easiest year for him, but guess what? Over at FanGraphs, they have eight different projection systems that run as the season goes. When added to his current fWAR of 1.2, every single one of them thinks he will finish as an average or slightly above-average player this year (2.0+ WAR).
In an off year. When he missed the entire previous season.
So here, I’m gonna take a minor risk here: Matt McLain is gonna make an All-Star team or three before he’s through. Next year, I’m betting on him to be something like a 4 WAR player. Maybe better.
Should the Reds have foreseen this and had him play a month in the minors out of the gate? Does that give you 2-3 extra wins? Is his power guaranteed to come all of the way back?
I like Matt, he just seems like a total gamer.
He just seems to be baseball smart with excellent fundamentals. I’m fine if he is only a line drive, doubles hitter. It’s not like he’s a very big dude.
But we know he’s got power! And it’s not even that his is down, it’s literally down across ALL of MLB this year. He’s got the stuff for us to pencil his name in and not worry, just let Elly and TJ (and maybe, dare I say it, Noelvi, this time around).
It’s a what have you done for me lately game with fans as many on here wanted MM sent down a month ago.
Matt is an asset and as mentioned, he can help a team even in an off game at the plate.
There is no situation where starting him in the minors gets you 2-3 wins. First, who are you giving those PAs to? And do they provide the defensive value he does? Second, that’s just not how baseball works.
Jason, good point on who did they have to give PAs to. You really didn’t need to talk down to me in your last sentence though. Anomalies do happen, it’s one of the reasons that they play the games.
The 90 Reds swept the A’s, zero people saw that. AllThe Hype’s point on MM having a strong spring does explain why the Reds didn’t consider giving him some time in the Minors. He didn’t play for what, 1.5 years? That’s mainly what prompted my question.
Other Brian, I think the thought was that he was ready. He played in the fall league, played in spring training, looked good in both places. Also I don’t know that minor league reps would have necessarily helped MM. He may have needed to readjust to the speed of MLB games. I can’t say I know the team’s thinking, but MM has never looked lost out there even while the results weren’t what we hoped they’d be.
Lux could have played 2b. and would have done a pretty good job. So, to say who would they play? It’s a weird question when Espinal could have played some of those games at 2b as well.
I for one said at the start of spring that McLain will not be the savor everyone thought he would be this year. Look how long it took to get Suarez back to being a major power hitter after his shoulder injury.
I do think he is a good baseball player, and the Reds should keep him at 2b. I also will say I don’t know that putting him in the minors would be a way to get him going faster. This type of injury just takes a pretty good amount of time to heal up, and sometimes the player is never the same again. Time will tell with McLane on if he is able to get his power back but, in the meantime, he seems to be turning things around over the past month or so.
First, remember McLain had a solid spring where he was ripping the ball with great EVs. So Reds really had no indication that McLain would be slow out of the gate.
Also remember that at the beg of the year, Steer was not able to play OF.
So if Matt is unavail at 2B, Lux plays there, and then you have Lux AND Steer not available in OF.
The replacements in the OF, whoever they would have been, would not have been better than Matt and the defensive value he added at 2B.
So my conclusion is, there would not have been any incremental improvement.
Whether it resulted in any extra wins would depend upon who played 2nd in his absence: probably Espinal.
His exit velocities in ST were as high as they have ever been. He hit 3 HR in his first 4 games this year. Then he strained his hamsting. He was not the same after returning.
Thank you, Jason! Voices of reason are DEFINITELY needed over here, especially on the topic of Matty Mac! He’s very good, potentially going to be great. I do think that Tito should have had him lower in the order to start the year, or been less hesitant to move him lower when he started off so rough, but otherwise, you’re right on the money.
This is also another reason why the FO shouldn’t be so scared to trade 1 or 2 of the 500 infield prospects we have that could maybe, someday, possibly be a good baseball player for a CURRENTLY good baseball player. Where are you going to play them? There’s literally no room at the inn, so where they gonna go?!
Bring us back a big bat to help the offense – we’ve needed it for at least 2 seasons now and there’s no guarantee any of those prospects will hit once they get here – see CES as the most recent example (although I do think he needs more time and, maybe, a different hitting coach). Trade them now and worry about it never.
Like you, I’d been thinking that McLain got too many PAs at #2 while he was struggling.
But I took a look at the numbers:
McLain’s 240 PAs at #2:
54 games 6 HR, 5 2B, 11 SB, 34 runs
26 BB, 67 K
.210 BA / .310 OBP / .320 SLG
Everyone else’s 218 PAs at #2:
57 games – 2 HR, 5 2B, 2 SB, 21 runs
23 BB, 34 K
.195 BA / ~.275ish OBP
[ I’m not figuring their SLG% but they would probably be no better than McLain’s. ]
To me, this shows that Tito may have known that he didn’t really have anyone better to put at #2 than a perhaps-hobbled McLain.
Tito did eventually swap him with Espinal in the order which worked until it didn’t.
Great article. This offseason is the time to get McLain locked up long term. I would prefer the same with Elly. But if Elly leaves after ’29, we will at least have his replacement at SS.
Agree, but I think that replacement at SS will be Lewis or Stafura or Hall, not McLain as I infer from your comment. By 2029 McLain will have been so embedded as a great, perennial all star second baseman that one suspects it is unlikely he would move to SS unless all the other prospects bomb completely.
I agree, I would try to get a fair deal with McLain as part of the long game. I would not break the bank on trying to sign EDLC long term, just enjoy him for six years and wish him well. If we have a replacement SS who is above average for the position and a second baseman who is well above average for the position, we will be solid up the middle.
Still hoping Hinds gets a real opportunity at the big league level, unlike what he has gotten so far. It appears to me that unlike last when my eyes in Louisville told me he was going through the motions after being sent down, this year he has gone to Louisville and produced.
Adam Dunn had a pretty nice career despite striking out 200+ times per year.
Imo, Adam Dunn would approach 275 Ks per year against today’s pitching.
Adam Dunn had a really good career.
.855 career OPS over 14 years.
(.. Jose Canseco’s career OPS was .865 .. Fred McGriff’s was .885)
And btw Dunn only once struck out 200 times in a season.
As Leonard said plus Adam Dunn had a career .364 OBP vs. .245 for Hinds. Dunn is a bad comparison for Hinds. Aquino is a much better comparison for Hinds than Dunn. Except Aquino sucked and therefore, does not justify additional playing time for Hinds. Once Hinds can hit a ML off-speed pitch bring him up.
Dunn walked a lot, as I recall, hence the OBP. I learned awhile ago to distrust both the eye test and memory, but it seemed that Dunn either walked, struck out, or hit a home run. He obviously got some hits that weren’t home runs, but he was not a good fielder.
Adam Dunn had ~800 singles and ~1400 walks and HBP in just over 2,000 career games.
(And 10 triples! 😉 )
Hey ALLTHEHYPE: Agreed we should lock McLain up long term. I have never worried about him. Despite his injury/slump he reeks of stardom IMHO. As far as Elly goes we had BETTER trade him before he walks for nothing. They haul we will get for him will be considerable and no way a team like the Reds could pass that up.
love mclain
Considering I stated many times that I though McLain was going to be the best player on a team that has EDLC on it, I don’t think he’s better than I thought.
I underestimated the timeframe for his shoulder recovery. I still think he’s got a shot at being the best player next year, but EDLC matures very quickly, and his ceiling is higher.
Ancient wisdom dictates never underestimate shoulder injuries. Twin killers, for both pitchers and hitters.
Yep.
Ask a mechanic of you should buy a used car with a weakened CV joint.
@MBS, good points.
Not worried about McLain, but his K/bb ratio has to improve. If you want to bat at the top then you need to be an obp machine! His strike zone is smaller then he thinks it is. He’ll be very good, just needs to stay healthy
Reason #37 why selling off our rental pieces and gearing up for 2026 is probably the better idea.
Ugh. You’re not wrong but… ugh.
😉
Im starting to think I agree w you. The time to fix this offense was this past offseason. No need to dog the hole deeper.
The best reason I can think of to not sell off Rentals is the return Arizona got for Josh Naylor
He did have value. It is somewhat perplexing.
Great Article Jason. I agree 100%. I have always felt it would take Matty a full year to get back to his old self. I am not worried about him at all. I think Matt McLain will be the Red’s second baseman for years to come.
Well, if MM is better than we think, then the Reds are better than we think? You are what your record says you are until you prove otherwise, not with advanced metrics. With wins and with stats that actually count. Until then, we are all what we show we are.
The wins definitely count.
I guess going by your view, a team’s wins are just about the only stats that count.
But this is an article about one player who has been struggling.
I mean, you can only write (or read) so many articles about the MLB standings, right?
I was just making a comparison. In my view, MM is not better than I think until his BA, OBP, and slugging say he is. I get so tired of hearing folks calling players unlucky. Funny how the good ones are the lucky ones. Yes, we have seen improvement and can anticipate more, but I’m not ready to say he’s better than i think until I see it and see it consistently.
@Klugo
Okay, I get it. You’re responding to the headline.
But in the short article, Jason is making the case that McLain is still contributing to the team in 2025, and I think too many fans have been thinking: “He can’t hit anymore! Should we trade him?”
Also, I don’t think anyone has really been saying that McLain has been “unlucky”?
I mean.. aside from his injuries.. one of which required surgery and months or recovery and rehab.
Yes and I agree with that. McLain has been playing a– off, too. He’s working hard and contributing every way he can. The injury has definitely had an effect on his bat and he’s heading in the right direction. I do appreciate Matt McLain and think it’s WAY too early to be considering his trade value. He’s young and I like what I’ve seen.
I’ve already conceded the limitations of memory, but McLain, to me, seems like a very good 2nd baseman who makes surprising and unforced misplays from time to time but, presumably, will get better. But he is no Brandon Phillips. I’ve seen 2nd basemen back to and including Mazerowski, and Phillips is the best I’ve seen.
Let’s also not forget that Steer was dealing with a shoulder issue to start the year. Could be why his numbers were down to start the year. Both are very good base runners and fielders. I expect much better things from both if they are healthy. Both are showing signs of that now.
My comments – MM is a very good defensive player – I think on par as to when Phillips was here.
I am concerned about his pitch recognition. Seems like he has no clue as to the ball that breaks down into the zone. Really looks bad on some pitches. Don’t think that has anything to do with his shoulder.
As far as the next great SS for the Reds. Arroyo and Stafura are very good defensively, but I would like to see a little more offense from both of them. There has been some suggestion that Lewis may move off short, but he appears right now to be the best combination of hit and defense.
Have you seen Arroyo’s size? Not much power hitting going to be coming from him compared to what Elly can produce.
Why do other men call a man Matty?
Because they like to bestow nicknames on people? Do we know that women don’t call him Matty? It’s a very large world. I’d assume, based upon that alone, that some women do call him Matty. The real question is: what does he call himself?
It’s different if a woman has a cutsie nickname for a guy. Men normally don’t give other men cutsie nicknames.
Unsupported assumptions, Brian. Do we actually know where the nickname Matty originated? Maybe it’s what he’s always been called. Maybe his dad called him that. Maybe his first girl friend called him that. So many questions. Who knew that nicknames were such a minefield of controversy?
Again, I’m not calling another man named Matt … Matty… or boo boo or anything that sounds flirty. You do you though..
Because Dick Trickle retired in 1998.
Trending upwards but his road numbers still leave room for improvement.
OPS of .586. Obviously it takes time to come back from injury, I’ll give you that. Hoping his power comes back too.
One benefit of playing McLain with his high level defense at 2B next to Elly is to the pitching staff, particularly turning double plays.
In 2024, we were either dead last in DP’s or a hair away from it. Our 2B defense was sad.
I think about how hard it is to pitch in the ML’s and how hard it is to get double play ground balls. Then I think about how much it collectively takes out of a pitching staff to get those DP ground balls and have the infield fail to turn two
I’m not talking about the one occasion here or there. Our pitchers are big boys. I am talking about how that adds up via extra pitches and outs given away to opposing hitters.
Want to be a pitching and defense organization? Pitch well and play great defense. Matt McLain does that and will continue to do so at a high level.
this is also something that we should keep in mind with Edwin Arroyo. he also had a bad shoulder injury, I do not think he is a 20+ HR hitter, but, he will have occasional pop when 100% healthy.
Arroyo has been hitting for more power in July. The HRs aren’t coming much yet, but he’s hit a bunch of doubles and I think 1 HR. I think he gets back to at least a 10-15 HR/year guy.
Off-topic – Yankees got their 3rd-baseman from CO, so they’re presumably dropping out of the Suarez market.
Good news for the Reds. I don’t believe McMahon would have been much help to the Reds.
Nice article, I mostly agree, and assert a similar argument should be made regarding Steer’s slow start.
There have been points in the season where I believe the team could have been incrementally helped by moving McLain down in the batting order. His July hitting numbers have improved since the All-Star break, but they remain below average for the month. However, some fluctuations in a player’s production are to be expected.
Given that he missed an entire season, he may benefit from some planned days off in the second half as well. Like others, I expect him to be a perennial All-Star moving forward. I fully expected he would struggle somewhat this season.
A very good reminder to take a moment and review the situation. I wonder about similar analysis of the effects on CES, Steer and EDLC as well. Lesser injuries and time away, but there’s a very fine line between baseline MLB performance and what even seemingly “minor” injuries can do to degrade that.
All of which likely shows they are still 2 or 3 players short to deal with such expected occurrences.
Some players I listen to on podcasts have said it’s very rare *not* to be dealing with some sort of injury or another, and players are mostly playing through something. I think it’s just a fact of life in the major leagues. Nice to see MM and Steer get back to who we know they can be as they get further away from injuries. Have seen similar things with Friedl from last year and Fraley just recently (though he still needs surgery in the offseason). It’s a hard game on the human body!
McLain has been playing good defense, and he has 39 hits in his last 38 games.
.277 BA, 23 runs
The Reds are 21-17 in those games.
The Reds are 24-20 (+4) since the end of May.
They are +4 when Marte has played.
They are +3 when Hays plays.
They are +3 since Tito started managing.
They are +3 since Elly joined the team in June of ’23.
In the time between Joey Votto’s last productive season and Elly’s arrival, the Reds were 89-133 (-44).
Michael Papierski, Vladimir Gutierrez, and Mike Minor are all long gone.
They’re probably all out of professional baseball and never to return to the Reds.
No Fraley….either dinged up or traded and neither is good(( He’s probably my fav current Red
I like Fraley too. He’s a gamer. I would be sad if they traded him. But he’s been so dinged up this year that’s probably what it is. (not sure if that’s good or bad news haha)
I like Frailey too, but if he helps bring us a player that is even better, I am willing to trade him.
“So here, I’m gonna take a minor risk here: Matt McLain is gonna make an All-Star team or three before he’s through.”
I’ll agree with that.
Benson in the lineup tonight over Fraley. That’s really interesting considering how hot Fraley has been and just having a day off. Possible trade? Guess we’ll find out.
Fraley’s cortisone shot has blown through???
Urbasez was a late scratch on Tuesday and did not play last night for Bats. I have not found any indication that he is injured or on any sort of leave. Their Friday lineup has not posted, but, I wonder if he is somewhere in the shadows at GABP.
ugh, Urbaez above as in Francisco Urbaez
Sure as I posted the above, the Bats lineup has just posted, and of course Urbaez is in it at 2B,
Well that was just one theory. As someone pointed out the trade value of Fraley is probably not very high considering the injury he’s dealing with. We’ll see.
Nolan Arenado for Carlos Jorge.
Arenado would do it because GABP would beef up his resume
Cards is addition by subtraction
Reds get great defense at 3B at little cost
Hunter Harvey for Leonardo Balcazar. Harvey is healthy and good.
“Nolan Arenado for Carlos Jorge.”
I would love to get Arenado. Just don’t see how it could happen with the Cards.
It’s just not in the Cards! pfftt… sorry I had to.
That’s okay, Jay. We all understand.
Cardinals are 7-13 in their last 20 and their tea leaves see seems to read:
“Selling at the deadline.”
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2025/7/25/24474097/the-cardinals-appear-to-be-making-the-right-decision-about-the-trade-deadline
Which kinda means that Reds fans should be rooting for the Cardinals to beat the Padres this weekend.
Nice to see the Jake Fraley love.I think he is a really good guy.My 3 favorite Reds of all time.Big Klu, Jay Bruce and Jake Fraley.