We are where we are, Cincinnati Reds fans. After an exciting and successful series versus the New York Mets in NYC, the Reds need a win in today’s matinee to avoid being swept by the Washington Nationals. A victory today would allow the Reds to salvage a .500 split for the current road trip. A win would also keep alive their exalted status as the only MLB team not to be swept in 2025.
Starting Lineups
Cincinnati Reds | Washington Nationals |
| TJ Friedl – CF | CJ Abrams – SS |
| Gavin Lux – 2B | James Wood – LF |
| Elly De La Cruz – SS | Amed Rosario – DH |
| Austin Hays – DH | Nathaniel Lowe – 1B |
| Jake Fraley – RF | Alex Call – RF |
| Noelvi Marte – 3B | Brady House – 3B |
| Jose Trevino – C | Luis Garcia Jr – 2B |
| Will Benson – LF | Drew Millas – C |
| Santiago Espinal – 1B | Jacob Young – CF |
| Nick Lodolo – LHP | Michael Soroka – RHP |
Starting Pitchers
| Pitcher | IP | ERA | WHIP | BB% | K% |
| Nick Lodolo | 113.2 | 3.33 | 1.08 | 4.9% | 22.2% |
| Michael Soroka | 72.1 | 5.10 | 1.15 | 6.9% | 25.3% |
| Links: Nick Lodolo’s Stats | Michael Soroka’s Stats | |||||
Nick Lodolo
When Hunter Greene went down with a recurrence of his groin injury, Reds fans wondered who might step up to give the Reds stability in his absence. Along with Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo has answered that call. Since a poor start on June 11, which raised Lodolo’s ERA to a season high of 3.76, Lodolo has bounced back with six solid outings, reducing his ERA to 3.33. Just as importantly, Lodolo has shed his image as a 5-inning wonder over this stretch. And better yet, the Reds have won 5 of the 6 games on the foundation Lodolo has given them.
Splits
| Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| RHH | 369 | 73 | 15 | 0 | 14 | 16 | 85 | .212 | .262 | .378 |
| LHH | 100 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 19 | .314 | .384 | .453 |
Lodolo shows a significant reverse split in 2025, reflected in batting average and OBP. Apparently, the Reds’ opposition either doesn’t trust these numbers or doesn’t have additional left handed batters to use against him.
Pitch Usage
| 4-seam | Sinker | Change | Slider | |
| Velo | 93.8 | 93.6 | 87.9 | 81.9 |
| Usage | 25% | 24% | 22% | 29% |
Michael Soroka
Canadian born Michael Soroka was the 28th overall pick (Atlanta Braves) in the 2015 draft. Soroka found himself in MLB at age 20 in 2018. In 2019, he made 29 starts for the Braves and was named to the National Legaue All Star team. Soroka suffered an Achilles tendon injury during the COVID abbreviated 2020 season. Due to the initial injury and a recurrence during recovery, he did not see MLB action again until 2023.
Soroka finished the 2023 season on the injured list with an arm issue and was traded from the Braves to the Chicago WhiteSox in the offseason. The Sox attempted to convert Soroka to a reliever in 2024 but eventually nontendered him at the season’s end. Soroka subsequently signed with the Nationals for 2025. He has made 14 starts for the Nationals this year.
Things have not gone well for Soroka recently. In his last 5 starts, Soroka has pitched only 24.1 innings, been charged with 2 losses, and earned no wins while accruing a 5.17 ERA. The Nationals have also lost his 3 no decision games over this span.
However, a word of caution is in order here. Despite the high ERA for Soroka, his FIP for these games was only 2.27.
Splits
| Split | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| RHH | 127 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 32 | .190 | .260 | .284 |
| LHH | 177 | 40 | 19 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 45 | .256 | .339 | .481 |
Pitch Usage
| 4-seam | Sinker | Change | Curve | |
| Velo | 94.0 | 93.7 | 84.6 | 80.7 |
| Usage | 45% | 9% | 11% | 35% |
When and Where
- Game time: 12:05 pm ET
- Where: Nationals Park
- Watch: FanDuel Sports Network Ohio, MLB.tv
- Listen: 700 WLW AM (Cincinnati area)
- Forecast: 88°, cloudy, 5% chance of rain
News And Notes
Scheduled Day Off For Steer
Gordon Wittenmyer and Charlie Goldsmith are both reporting that Spencer Steer’s absence from the lineup today is a scheduled day off. Wittenmyer also alludes to the fact that Steer has been dealing with a “bothersome quad”.
As a result of Steer’s day off, Santiago Espinal is making his first career start at first base.
Big Night For Encarnacion-Strand at Louisville
Read about CES’s big game with the Bats and all the Reds minor league action Tuesday
Division Standings
| Team | W | L | GB | Playoff Odds |
| Milwaukee | 60 | 41 | 0.0 | 92.7% |
| Chicago | 60 | 41 | 0.0 | 96.8% |
| Cincinnati | 52 | 50 | 8.5 | 8.6% |
| St. Louis | 52 | 50 | 8.5 | 17.9% |
| Pittsburgh | 41 | 61 | 20.0 | 0.0% |
| Playoff Odds via Fangraphs | ||||
If the Reds lose today this forum will erupt into a collective chorus of “THE SKY IS FALLING!”
I thought this was already in full force after reading the comments to last night’s wrap up!
True enough.
They were just warming up, sharpening their pitch forks.
I avoided offering any subjective opinions in the preview in hopes of not stoking the flames. 😉
LOL@Jim
Good comeback!!! Could be worse tigers seem to be collapsing
Well, it’s Buy or Sell Season. So, that in and of itself is going to invite to some hard introspection.
Back in the days of watching and enjoying the BRM I knew I was blessed, and that one day the Red”s record will not be so good.
C’est la vie!
I at least had the 1990 Reds as a 9 year old for their wire to wire season. Such is life indeed.
Just read how the Asterisks are decimated with injuries, yet they remain in playoff contention. Look at the injuries to the Dodgers rotation.
We have to face the facts that while we have some talented players on the squad we still need more.
I am a Corbin Carroll fan. Envision him patrolling the outfield and hitting at the top of the lineup in front of Elly. Go ahead.
Moriarty’s need not reply.
Carroll is on a sweetheart deal through 2031, and trade for him they are starting with Burns and will want more.
Santiago espinal at first base today.
This team is completely clueless
135 AB is all we give to a guy that has at every level his entire career and crushes HR’s. Let him smash HR for Lou while our 200 hitting middle IF plays first.
Please go back to retirement Tito
Steer is getting a day off. Who should play 1b then?
I was wondering why not Joe, since the Nats are starting a RHP; or for that matter Stephenson.
Soroka has not gone past the 5th inning recently. Maybe the Reds went with Espinal because they are expecting to see a LHP out of the pen sooner rather than later?
Stephanson could do it.
I forgot Joe was on the team.
@andy
Are you saying to want CES playing 1B?
Yes.
I get it he’s been inconsistent. Played 30 games last year and broke his hand
Played a month this year, bad back for a month, came back and played sparingly.
Give him a 3 month run at 1B. At least we will know what we have with him. We know what steer and Espinal are and they are both not everyday 1B from an offense perspective.
Question for the CES haters. If we traded or lDFA’d him. Would it shock you one bit if he figured it out on another team and hit 35-40 HR a season? It wouldn’t surprise me one bit so I would rather exhaust figuring out what he is and then keep him or move on.
@Andy
Yes, that would shock me.
Frankly, I’ll be shocked if CES hits another 40 HR in his entire career for any and all MLB teams that might have him.
Oh, interesting enough Nationals took two of three from the first place tigers a few weeks ago.
Once again, the sky isn’t falling, because no one expected the Reds to make the playoffs this year or to even be competitive. Of course, the preseason predictions did have the Reds finishing ahead of the Brewers. So much for all the “analytics models”. Bottom line, Krall & Meador need to make acquisitions NOW to finish the year strong and be ready for next year. Decide if you want Hays (I don’t) or Pagan (nope) and deal them now. Martinez? A year or two at a lower AAV, maybe. Singer. Not real impressed so far. Burns probably needed more AAA time. All in all, I think the Reds have overperformed and Tito is certainly trying to change things. But, he’s not getting help, thus far, from the FO.
Maybe the team would be winning more games if they made moves now. It’s like only a week until the deadline. How nice would it be for them not to wait and see for once. Make improvements right now today! Raise the team’s chance to win right now.
Now if the Reds stink it up the next week the team will use it as an excuse on why they didn’t get anyone.
Couldn’t agree more.
Is anyone else surprised there were no reinforcements for the bullpen following the last two games? Even with the day off tomorrow, I thought chances were better than 50/50 they’d bring in a fresh arm for today. Maybe there was no one to bring or any way to get them to DC in time?
CES should be playing 1st base. Or DH. Most everyday. He was coming around even when they sent him down. Again
If he is up at all, he should be playing every day. Same with Hinds, if he is up, he should be playing every day.
Hinds is getting a trial by fire right now. By my count via Gameday, he saw 29 pitches in 4 PAs last night. They are not throwing him a 4 seamer near the strike zone.
He is fouling off pitch after pitch labeled as sliders, cutters, sweepers, curves, and change ups. Most of them are borderline, too close to take down 2 strikes.
Last night in 3 official ABs he ended with 2Ks and a groundout. He also had a walk (9 pitch PA, 3-2 count).
One of the Ks was eye high and inside, but he chased (6 pitch PA, 2-2). The other was a sweeper from a LHP that looked to be a strike either way (7 pitch PA, 3-2 count).
If he keeps his cool and works through this stuff successfully, there is nothing left for him to prove or learn at AAA. Either he will or will not be able to do the same at MLB,
This feels like Tito waiving the white flag. He knows more than me I suppose.
I believe there could be some posturing going on ahead of the trade deadline in a week and a day. Perhaps Tito it is posturing to his bosses, or maybe a coordinated effort between Tito and the bosses?
As in>>> Yeah, we trust Lux at 2B and Espinal can play anywhere but CF and Catcher.
Or>> Joe is so bad that I have to put Espinal at 1B. At the least I (Tito speaking) need better bench options.
Well they were working out Hinds at 1B at one point. 😉
Melvin>> Did you notice that Hinds has been back in CF 2 of the last 3 games? The first time did not particularly raise my eyebrows because Dunn was not playing that game. However, last night Dunn was in LF with Hinds in CF.
This is part of the activity that seems to me could be organizational posturing ahead of the deadline, or preparing for possible scenarios after the deadline. And it could be as much that they want to get Dunn corner work as much as they are trying to sell Hinds as a CF.
Jim – No I didn’t realize Hinds was in CF while Dunn was playing. That’s very interesting. It would seem that something is or several things are going on. Guess we’ll find out.
I agree, I think he has realized that this team will never succeed with Steer and Stephenson they simply are not that good. I also would say goodbye to Fraley and Friedl as well as Joe and Espinal. Let’s admit this group has failed to make the Reds competitive. The best they did was 82 and 80 in 2023 and that is not good enough. I give Marte, CES, Hinds and Benson the same chances you gave them and add a few more pieces. I also would hope that Stewart and Collier and a few othesr come through.
Why would you get rid of Friedl and Fraley?
I’m sorry, even the smartest people in the world make mistakes or have bad judgements from time to time. There is ZERO reason Espinal should be playing 1st base. I’m going to lose my mind if he makes and error today and you know what, I’m blaming Tito on this one. What terrible decision. Even if Espinal goes 4 for 4 and hits a home run today he should not be playing 1st base.
Who should play first Joe? I didn’t know a manager can cause errors
Because they are not playoff level players. I have seen enough of them.
by now the front office knows what they have on the major league level at least. no reason not to make some tough decisions and move forward.
I won’t complain about any lineup that includes Benson. Go get ’em.
Let’s go Reds. Win today and things will be back to normal.
Normal-ish … 😮
Uninspiring 1st inning (nice hit from Lux).
I’ll have the game on but muted often due to meetings. Planning on a late-afternoon “departure” from the Maple-Leaf Country to the North (unless you are in Detroit, then it’s to the South). Just want to crawl out of DC with a win here and somewhat salvage the road trip.
Pig kicking, etc., etc.
Nice response from Nick.
2nd game in row EDLC ends first with a double play. Things are not going well.
Talk about a guy who needs a day off
I think it will be interesting when all is said and done to (hopefully) find out what is going on with EDLC’s legs. It’s on the public record that he has been instructed not to use his full normal burst effort except in extreme situations. But how bad are things under the hood?
Don’t worry about Espy defense at 1st base. 1st base is easy. That is a power bat position. Worry about that
+10K
The Reds must be in a hurry to get out of town.
Two strike outs looking in the second inning.Please just sell this is just awful.Lux with another single thats 5 in a row for him.I want to win but I am just about to the point where I want to see Trevino pitch in back to back games.We need to get hammered about 12-0 so he can pitch.
Pitcher is changing speeds, and so far more about him than the Reds.
Brantley or whoever is doing the color on the Reds TV today hit the nail on the head. Nationals Park is deep gap to gap, and the Nats have a very good CF who will run down just about anything that isn’t over the wall or an absolute 100+MPH lower drive (Benson clocked at 96.7, Lux at 97.2)
Good AB by Espinal.
Mr. HBP needs a day off and I’m not just talking about tomorrow.
He really embodies the spirit of do whatever it takes to get on base.
Tj is at it again.
Every pitcher change speeds but 90 in the zone has to be hit and hit hard.Soroka has no fear of any of these guys.He says hit my 90 mph fast ball and see what happens.Reds may still win and I hope they do but it don’t look promising.
Lux has 5 straight hits….comes up with a man in scoring position, and of course, then no hit…..reds picking us where they left off yesterday
really would be refreshing to see at least one of our hitters go on a tear. singles and HBP doesn’t score runs in bunches. players are trying but everyone seems hurting or tired.
this feels like one of those classic “can’t score any runs” starting up…. the reds have been in this mode far too many times this season
Clutch hitting is a massive failure for this team.
32 pitches through 3 innings, 26 strikes. Lodolo is not messing around.
let’s go Elly!!!
Elly has improved so much at pitch recognition. if we get had thumper to hit behind him pitchers would have to pitch to him.
Trevino has forgot how to get a hit….auto out
You are right, two chances to get more = failure.
Key AB was Hays struck out as supposed to HDP. Walk, steal, single = 1 run. Fundamental baseball.
FB down the middle and Benson couldn’t take advantage. Redeem yourself next time Benson. We need a big HR from you.
Is it me or has Elly taken a step at becoming a better defender of late?
+5,000
Today’s HP Chumpire thoughts are brought to you by …
Umpires who are too freaking tall to be behind the plate and end up developing a bias against strikes at the bottom of the zone. Cowboy and Jim stated it right up front and now we’re seeing it play out.
Really hoping we get ABS Challenge for 2026.
I made a promise not to comment on the uh, um, u know. Lol
Reds hitting too many easy fly ball outs = 9 so far.
Lodolo knows, if he wants a win, he cannot give up a run……hard to pitch like that
Yep
I can’t help saying it this offense is horrible.
Inconsistent yes, horrible no.. They are ranked 16th in batting average and 10th in runs.
I am sorry I still go with at least bad.
Jeff keeps saying keep ball out of air and while true it has grown old. Its not like the players are purposely hitting ball in air. LOL
Lodolo curve ball is dynamite today. He missed on the change up, however.
Meanwhile Pirates are working a sweeping the Tigers.
The Pirates have really good pitching this year.
Almost as good as the Reds.
If they had a lineup something like the Reds or the Nats, they could be .500
Their records says otherwise?
Their record is a reflection of their roster being filled with really, really bad hitters.
Take the Reds.. solid/good/great starting pitching but the offense and the bullpen are just below league-average. They’re record is just above .500
If you replaced the Dodgers pitching staff with the Pirates or Royals pichting staffs (or even the Reds staff), that team would be the best in baseball
Great point. I thought same about the nationals. They have some good ball players, but pitching?? Not sure..
They are making this guy look like a Cy Young candidate.
He was a top prospect at one point. He’s had significant injuries but he’s battled back to hang on in MLB.
He was a first round draft choice. Even with the injuries, he’s been about as valuable as Tyler Stephenson who the Reds took in the same first round.
Gotta feel good for a guy like Soroka, was at one time a top notch prospect. Injuries has derailed his career. Today he is looking good so far. Good for him..
Lots of guys look good against the Reds
If I am Marte I want to bat and drive a gap shot.
Grazed by Pitch … but it works.
GBP…. will it take??
whatever happened to batters “protecting the plate” with 2 strikes…..seems now, players are just “guessing” if the next pitch will be a strike or not…..take for example, the strike 3 call on Fraley…..that pitch was never not a strike….right straight down the middle of the plate, yet, he just looked at it with 2 strikes on him…..don’t get it
He may of been expecting a different pitch? Maybe he didn’t pick up the spin of the ball?
I agree though sometimes it seems like batter’s aren’t protecting with two strikes. flip side of that is the split decision they have to make. Either way it is frustrating to watch time and time again for sure
Another failed chance, zero clutch hitting.
2 hits through 6 innings, good thin Lodolo is doing his job.
insurance run would be nice.
That is for sure.
Looks like we’re on the positive side of a one run game this time at the moment at least. Still it’s a one run game again. Not good for our offense.
While Abbott has rightly been getting all the attention, don’t overlook what a great season Lodolo is having too.
Besides getting lit up by Cleveland for 6 runs, he has given up more than 3 runs in only one other start. In fact, here are the number of earned runs he’s given up in all of his starts:
0 runs – 4
1 run – 3
2 runs – 4
3 runs – 5
4 runs – 1
5 runs – 0
6 runs – 1
6+ runs – 0
Seems pretty consistent to me. He’s almost guaranteed to hold the other team to 3 runs or fewer. With an even half decent offense, that should be more than enough to win most of his starts, which is all you can ask for from your starting pitcher.
10000% agree
Yeah, if you look at every Reds players’ WAR, Lodolo is the Reds’ third most valuable player this season:
Abbott 3.8
Elly 3.5
Lodolo 3.3 (and that’s not counting today)
I am learning the value of “War” not sold 100% lol
@kevin
I get it. I don’t think it’s the be-all end-all.
But it does give you a quick way to spot the best players on any team.
And it allows you to see how pitchers’ values compare to hitters’ values.
And it allows you find the guys on the roster with the negative numbers that are actually hurting the team 😉
Connor Joe -0.7
Espinal -0.8
And the guys that hurt the team but have been shipped out.
Petty -0.8
Diaz -0.4
Candalerio -0.9
So the theory goes that if the Reds have played a hypothetical “typical replacement” MLB player in place of Petty, Diaz and Candelario this season, they’d have 2 more wins than they do now.
Another failure, I would have pinched hit Mclain against the left hander and also improved the defense at 2nd.
Even the calm-demeanor Mr. Day is very tired of poor Chumpires 😮
Question
With the inconsistent strike zones from game to game. Do you all think it affects players abilities? In regards to what will or wont be called a strike?
As Mark V noted, approach, not ability. But it does impact the game in tangible ways.
As others have said, the ABS System can not come soon enough to expose the incompetence of some of the umpires calling balls and strikes!
I would love to see Tito get fired up and argue some of these balls and strike just to put some life into this team. It sure couldn’t hurt.
Having to face an 0-2 count puts a batter on the defensive and certainly changes their approach to the at bat. Does it change their abilities. I don’t think so. But it does change their approach during the at bat.
FINALLY!!!
OK, straight hat tip to Young for that catch.
You are right, that was a fantastic catch.
Bottom of the dude’s chest was over the wall 😮 😮 😮
hopefully 3 will be enough
What a catch by Young. Nationals have talent
Yea! Gotta give him credit for a great play!
Great catch but, the Reds did get 2 big runs. Hopefully that catch doesn’t give them any momentum. Keep it going Nick.
Wasted challenge call, but why not?
That was Elly’s ball. Ugh
Without a doubt, that was Mclain’s fault all the way.
that stupid that a ground ball to 2nd is not an out….no excuse for that not to be an out
None
And now the BIG question … 😐
I’d like to see Lodolo finish this.
Yes! Do you go back to Lodolo in the 9th! What say ye!
I am hoping Lodolo gets a chance to finish this game. Two left handed batters up, let him go Tito.
Cowboy says Lodolo is going back out.
Lodolo has been outstanding … he’s at 95 pitches and a day-off tomorrow…Is he done?.. the Nats lefties are coming next inning
I asked for 7-8 shut out innings from Lodolo and he delivered.
Thankfully Lodolo has been dealing. Abbott and Lodolo have been pretty darn spectacular. Maybe we can silence the Lodolo wastes too many pitches nonsense.
Nice to see a few runs by this offense.
bunt these 2 over…play for that extra run please
Regardless if he comes back out,this may have been his best career start.Every pitch from the start has been high leverage and yes that’s the way it is most of the time cause our offense sucks but it still hard to do.Just a great job today.
I asked for 7-8 shut out innings and Lodolo delivered.
Elly hitting often for double-play recently is weird
Elly needs some rest….gotta do it….not driving the ball at all
I think pitchers are pitching him down in the zone.
But he could also use some rest.
But I don’t think Elly wants to miss PT.
He came back from his bereavement leave after missing only one game.
He pinch hit in a game after being gone from the team and missing just one game.
Man Elly is just not doing what Elly can do.
Elly has 2 HDP, a strike out looking, and a walk, but I am sure I will see comments on how well he is playing, smh.
He is playing well, a rough week. It happens
Off day tomorrow….but he will be in there on friday…..hopefully home cooking will get him going again
We just have differences of opinions on Elly. No disrespect meant or anything!!!
Congrats Lodolo! What an outing. That’s how you pitch.
WOW!!! 😮 😮 😮
Great day for Nick. Love seeing his continual improvement.
He’s outstanding. And this is without having his best pitch, world elite change up, working.
Awesome win by the Reds today. Great baseball game.
That was a beautifully pitched game!
Great ballgame by Nick! Hopefully a boost for the entire ballclub!
Nice job Lodolo ! Needed that !
Greene, Abbott & Lodolo…..there are not many teams that have 3 going in their rotation like those 3
And what Lowder and Burns could be. That would/could be an outstanding starting 5.
I am not sold on Burns yet. He has been pretty inconsistent at the MLB level.
REDS WIN on a masterful outing buy Lodolo… his best career outing I would say…A rare shutout complete game… With this victory Reds keep his “not being swept” streak alive…it was a 3-3 road trip which we all expected it was going to be better after winning the series at NY…
Need Miami to close out Padres and we are in same position as before the series started. Back to normal as I stated.
I tend to agree with you, he just seem to be playing up to his capabilities.
And that is it folks.
P. S. No Reds fan committed harry carey after this game.
+1000