The Cincinnati Reds made a set of roster moves this afternoon prior to game two of their series against the Colorado Rockies. Infielder Christian Encarnacion-Strand was optioned to Triple-A Louisville. Outfielder Jake Fraley was activated from the 10-day injured list.
It’s been a struggle for Encarnacion-Strand this season. He’s missed time with a back injury and when he has been active, he’s hit poorly. In his 36 games played he’s hit .208/.234/.377. That line has come with just three walks in 137 plate appearances, and he’s also struck out 32 times. Since Noelvi Marte was activated the playing time for Encarnacion-Strand has seemed to dry up. Now he will head to the minor leagues and get a chance to play every day and try to make the adjustments needed to find more success in the big leagues that will lead to more walks and better production at the plate.
Jake Fraley has missed time the last three weeks while dealing with a shoulder injury. He has a torn labrum and has opted for a cortisone shot to delay the needed surgery to repair the injury.
The outfielder joined Louisville on July 8th for a rehab stint. He spent three games with the Bats in Columbus and went 2-11 with a double, walk, and two strikeouts.
Prior to his injury he had been struggling to find hits. In his 47 games with Cincinnati he had hit just .224. Fraley did have 19 walks with 28 strikeouts, and he had nine extra-base hits – all of which helped him post a .331 on-base percentage and a .376 slugging percentage. That’s a solid on-base percentage, but it’s not the type of power you expect from a corner outfielder, or from Jake Fraley. Injuries over the past few seasons seem to have cost him the power he used to show much more consistently.
He’s back now, giving the Reds offense another left-handed hitting option. He joins a crowded outfield that has six guys, and that doesn’t include Spencer Steer who will play out there when needed.
I figured this was coming.
Reds seem more content with a moderately (if that) productive, redundant outfield situation than one at 1B / 3B / DH.
Steer’s hitting and Marte’s awakening played a role in the decision of course.
I’d rather see CES hitting regular in AAA than getting splinters in Cincinnati.
But honestly, is his plate discipline really that much worse than McLain’s or Stephenson’s?
Last night’s game would have turned out differently with CES at bats rather than Hays’s 4 Ks.
I hope he turns it around, but I fear Marte may be quickly passing him by, which is a good thing in its own right.
We’ll see how pitchers adjust to Marte and what he does with the steady diet of down and away sliders that have befuddled so many young Reds’ hitters.
The Reds would be reckless to toss CES away in a cheap trade, which will likely happen, thinking that Stewart and Collier won’t run into the same difficulties.
But, of course, they will.
CES shows huge promise….a far worthier long term bet than Fraley…but he hasn’t capitalized on it.
“But honestly, is his plate discipline really that much worse than McLain’s or Stephenson’s?”
Yes, CES out of zone (chase) % is 44.3 this year. Stephenson is 30.6 and McLain is 26.2.
He needs to fix that big hole in his game, or he’ll never be successful in MLB.
Someone needs to whisper this into Crow-Armstrong ear so he and his 44.2% Chase rate will fall on his face.
@Tom
Some MLB hitters can make a career out of hitting balls out of the zone. Crow-Armstrong seems to be one of them. Vlad Guerrero was the best I’d ever seen do it.
CES can successfully do it in the minors. But for whatever reason, that “skill” does not translate to MLB for him. This being the case, he needs to learn to become a more traditional hitter and only swing at pitches in the zone.
It remains to be seen if he’s capable of making that adjustment, but if he is, getting consistent ABs is the only way to do it. He will get that in AAA.
Let’s see if he can re-invent himself.
It’s more than just “chase rate” to suggest ‘plate discipline’.
How many times have we seen Stephenson take a called third strike?
Or stand there watching his count go 0-2?
McLain’s chase rate may be lower, but watching what he does swing at and when (with his .205 BA) suggests a lot more going on than a single %.
The HR that Marte golfed out last night certainly didn’t look like it was in a zone.
I’m not making a case for CES’s plate discipline….only suggesting that some of his team mates having been looking similarly lost at the plate for extended stretches.
If McLain wasn’t playing a more than solid 2b (and if the Reds had an alternative other than Lux (or an everyday Espinal) he probably would …and should…have been sent Southbound long ago.
Anyone else thinking Manny Sanguillen was the prototype for “chase rate” analysis? Anyone before him?
Manny Sanguillen! I was watching some playoff and WS games from the 70s and watched that guy swing at just about everything. Though, back then, hitters went up there to hit and didn’t waste any time finding a pitch they liked. That’s one reason why games were shorter then.
I played a lot of baseball in my youth and watched many players hitting style and swing at all levels of baseball. CES has the best smooth swing I have seen for a while!!! With not trying to over swinging the bat, he generates tremendous power!!! He just doesn’t need to swing hard to hit bombs!!!! Plus watching the umpires calls this year are so bad for balls and strikes…. Maybe the intro of the challenge strike call in the majors is a much needed thing. People don’t realize that a bad umpire is a game changer for both batters and pitchers!!!! Mark my word if the Reds trade CES he will haunt them forever!!!
Despite having rehab numbers which rivaled Jemeir Candelario’s abortive rehab, Jake Fraley is back. Why???
Let’s get one thing out of the way before digging any deeper on Fraley. CES needed to be optioned back to AAA to work on his problem. CES needing to be optioned, and Fraley being ready to face MLB pitching, are separate issues
Now back to Fraley’s activation. During the abbreviated AAA rehab, Fraley had 12PAs across 3 games. His triple slash was .182/.250/.273 (.523 OPS) He had 2K and 1BB. His BABIP was .222 with 2 hits, one a double, in 11AB.
More notable to me is that per MiLB Gameday, Fraley had only one ball in play with an EV in excess of 85MPH, a 89.5MPH ground ball (MLB average EV is just under 90MPH). And of course, he got out of Dodge (literally Columbus, OH) ahead of a LH starting pitcher on Friday who blanked the Bats through 6 innings.
Fraley says his shoulder feels fine. But shouldn’t rehab be about more than feeling “fine”? Shouldn’t the player use enough of the 20 day period to get himself as nearly up to speed as possible ahead of facing MLB pitching?
If the only valid data points were what happens in the games, I would agree with you. However, he may have looked better in batting practice, and he is not coming off a lengthy layoff.
Leaving Hinds out since he creates another flash point, during those 3 games Fraley was with the Bats, at least 3 other guys (Vilade, Urbaez, and Rios) had an OPS of >1.000 facing the same pitching as Fraley. Blake Dunn even had a .852 OPS over this stretch
They were consistently achieving EVs in the mid 90’sMPH and higher. Fraley was not making good contact, or, if he was, there was no force behind it.
Fraley is not in the Reds lineup today, and with a lefty scheduled for the Rockies Sunday, he won’t start then. Why rush him back for a possible sub role both days ahead of the break? To save 2 days’ service time on CES??
No doubt, it was a curious move. Perhaps Francona will address this question with the media.
It’s not good, really, I agree. He’s coming back to be a corner OF singles guy, and likely a poor one at that. Urbaez would be a better choice, even though he’s not an OF. Let Espinal play OF with Hays against LHP and Urbaez back up the IF on those days. Or even with Hinds’ challenges with MLB pitching, he seems like the better option over Fraley and CES.
Fraley needs surgery in the offseason, he’s a certain non-tender this offseason, and if’s he’s DFA’d right now, he’s very unlikely to be claimed given his contract and injury uncertainty.
I don’t get this move at all.
His cortisone shot would wear off by the 20th rehab game.
Hopefully he got an epidural instead it’ll last about 5 weeks. I get the epidural in my l5/s1 every 3 months.
My point continues to be that decisions aren’t always made on “data points” or “averages” or calculations that so many RLN posters base their arguments on in our otherwise data-driven culture and economy.
It’s hard not to see the decision about Fraley to be a highly subjective one.
That rattles a lot of RLN data parsers, I know.
And I’ll say again, I’m no big fan of Jake Fraley…from the Winker-Geno trade to date.
But he’s clearly very popular on the team.
There aren’t any data points or Popularity-Above-Replacement numbers to quantify that.
Sometimes personnel decisions get made for other reasons than numbers will support.
But $$ numbers certainly play a role in decision making, maybe even in this one.
I’m not suggesting that it is somehow ‘right’ or ‘better’ or whatever, it just is.
When hasn’t this been a part of baseball personnel decision making?
CTR>>
I don’t disagree with very much of what you said.
However, I’m suggesting decisions like this activation are an inborn part of the Reds ongoing problems in building a winning culture.
Another aspect is that AAA takes the same 4-day break as MLB. So, he potentially could have played three more AAA games and then gotten activated over the break. As I mentioned earlier, I understand your point, but it’s worth noting that rehab results are inherently a small sample size and rarely indicative of future MLB performance. Moreover, Fraley’s rehab occurred during a particularly quirky part of the season.
Another possible angle is that they wanted CES down ahead of the break, and Fraley backed into the activation by being the simplest move to make to fill the spot.
Presuming that the 4 days of the break count toward the minimum 10 day stint in the minors for an optioned player, CES is eligible for recall on July 21 or 22. That would get him a minimum of 5 games at AAA to demonstrate that something they may have been working on with him is taking hold.
Also, keep an eye out to see if CES gets outfield reps at AAA. That could be part of what they’ve been working on and want to see live.
Good point, Jim.
George Foster was decent as CF in 1971. He was a bench warmer in 1972. He was optioned to Indy AAA in 1973 to work on his hitting. He came back a better hitter in 1974.
He exploded as a power hitter from 1975 through 1981 for the Reds.
Baseball was different in those days. The Reds had Foster, Dressen, and McRae warming the bench for years before they got their chance.
It would seem that Krall is too attached to his left handed platoon bats.
I think the Reds should try CES in LF. Face it, if a team intentionally walks someone, yeah, I know Elly, to get to you three straight times, and you strike out every time you are not much of a #4 hitter, a.k.a. Austin Hays. That GS AB vs. Boston showed the potential of CES. To the point of Stephenson and McClain chase rate. They don’t do much with pitches in the strike zone and could stand to be more aggressive.
CES’s problem is not being given opportunity. He has been MUCH better since coming off DL. Talk to Dbacks, Yankees, Red Sox. Over .240 since back, and 5 for last 16. .312. Moves like this are why we struggle to finish ahead of the Pirates
Maybe Tito et al are hoping to light a fire under CES to reach harder for his ceiling rather than slumming on his floor?
Since CES got back from the IL (77PAs):
Triple slash: .247/.273/.438 (.711 OPS)> Guessing they want better OBP to that end:
BB Rate: 2.6%
K Rate 24.7%>> Nothing wrong with the K rate *if* his OBP was better via higher BB rate (or batting average).
Big fan of power bats and he hit 3 or 4 homers in that span as well.I would take that line over 500 at bats and not blink.I get it about the walks but for him he may never walk much.Dude hits balls out of the zone a long way at times also.Reds are committed to Steer at first and a combo of Hayes/Lux and Ty Steve at DHI so CES has no place to play.Maybe next year only because I don’t expect the first two guys are resigned based on money and Ty Steve isn’t on safe ground now either with Trevino and his 3 year deal.As far as Fraley is concerned I am not sure of that move at all.Old school has commented several times that Fraley won’t be offered a deal next year and with a crowded outfield and with little power I am not sure how he helps.
He doesn’t SO a lot, but so does McLain. Regardless, he was just the guy who had no place to play now that Narte is back.
So far, CES does not have the plate discipline to start for the Reds. It is a disappointment. I am not confident this will change. The Reds have Steer at 1B, McClain at 2B, De La Cruz at SS, and Marte at 3B. (Marte has good potential with the bat; he is also just 23 years old.) I have been higher on Marte than most people here. I think McClain, De La Cruz, and Marte are good for the Reds for 2025, 2026, and 2027. The Reds should upgrade 1B with a trade or free agent in the offseason. I love the Reds Manager, so I will yield to his better judgment.
Marte could be 1B or LF when Stewart gets to the bigs. Collier will most likely be 1B/DH. Steer will probably be 1B until he’s pushed out by one of those guys and traded. CES will probably be traded even sooner.
@ Tom Diesman That was a cool one brother.CPA is a chaser and a masher.Got to love it.
I’m waiting for the Reds to show Santillan the door, or at the very least not let him anywhere near the 8th inning anymore. He cannot handle the pressure and allows far too many batters to reach base via walks or pitches in the middle of the plate trying to avoid a walk. I don’t have an answer of who to use, but Santillan isn’t it.
Steer, Lux, Fraley, Benson… I love all of these guys, but they just would not be starters on a good team.
.250/.330/.370 is fine for your 4th outfielder, say. Not GOOD, but fine.
If you are starting ANYONE with numbers like that at RF, LF, 1B, or 3B, you are a bad team.
And yes, I’m just ballparking that slash line… painting in broad strokes. Benson and Steer have a lower OBP and higher SLG than that. But you get my point.
Mclain batting 2nd today and Marte 9th. What is going on with this team?
I agree with you. This no longer makes sense, at least not currently.
Today’s lineup is posted and Jake Fraley isn’t starting against the Rockies RH Starting Pitcher Bradley Blalock who has a 12 ERA in a small sample size of 16 innings. Rockies are starting LH Austin Gomber tomorrow so Jake probably won’t be in the starting lineup tomorrow either. What was the rush to bring him back so quickly? Would’ve made more sense to call him up before next Friday’s game. Why not start Jake today at DH and give Austin Hays or perhaps Will Benson a break in RF? Another head scratcher by the Reds.
Perhaps Tito did not pencil in Fraley because his performance at AAA demonstrated he wasn’t ready to face MLB pitching.
Kind of makes you think Tito wasn’t the one who wanted him up huh? Maybe, in Krall’s thinking, it will be easier to trade him during the break if he’s activated. Who knows what he’s thinking?
CES has a Jose Peraza esque 2% BB rate
Theres no galaxy that translates into hitting success
Lost in all this is Noelvi Marte really looks comfortable in the batters box
Takes his walks , hits for powers and goes the other way
Austin Hays horrific night should inform us all baseball is not for fortune tellers…. But Marte looks really good as a hitter
Sorry if I just guaranteed a Marte 0-3 with 2 k’s
Marte this season looks like he has made “the leap”. For some young hitters, things just “click”, and suddenly they are MLB hitters.
Marte looks like he belongs.
Marte does look relaxed at the plate indeed. 0-2, 1-2 he’s taking close pitches out of the zone. He’s making the pitcher come to him.
5 more years of control after this, if he turns out good it will be great for the Reds, even if he doesn’t stick at 3B. He would make a fine RF imo, if need be later on.
Remember that Marte looked good his first season, as did McLain. The PED thing must have messed with Marte’s head, or getting hit in the head by EDLC’S throw, but it does seem he’s gotten beyond that now, whereas McLain is still working his way back to form.
Hopefully with Sal Stewart and others, the Reds will soon have better options at first base. I just don’t think CES can hit major league pitching. Same with Benson.
Truth is the Reds don’t have a spot for CES.We can look at it and say well he doesn’t walk or that his chase rate is bad or he strikes out too much or whatever and we can look at his line since he returned and say as I did I will take it and I would or we can look back at 2023 and say well you know he was hurt last year and missed most of it and a bunch this year so lets ride him until.Reds do not have a place for him and that’s it.He has nothing left to prove in the minors and even if he goes down and walks more he still does not have a spot on this team.Steer is at first and the 3 headed monster at DH is what the Reds have decided they go with.They have decided that gives them the best chance to win.I don’t but it doesn’t matter.I hope the Reds give Marte every at bat possible and every chance at third the rest of the way cause I want the Reds to win.
Don’t think CES can hit major league pitching? That’s funny
I don’t usually give much thought to the “team leadership” and “veteran presence” theories, but isn’t Fraley thought of as one of the Reds’ “rah rah” guys?
Also… It seems like the Reds like to ‘reward’ guys who have done what they’re asked/expected when working through their injuries and have put in their time in their trips down to Louisville. I don’t love that approach either but might it be that Krall and Tito have handshake deals with these guys to get them back with the team whenever possible? It’s not as if the roster is stacked with solid MLB hitters that they know will OPS .775+
To me, this looks like a marginal move that maybe just maintains clubhouse ‘tone’ in a season that was supposed to at best end with 85 wins.
I don’t love it, but isn’t that what the 2025 Cincinnati Reds are showing us they are? A mostly scrappy young offensive team with an overperforming rotation?
Fraley on being back with the team:
“I’m excited to be back with the team… It’s been a tough year so far. It hasn’t been terrible, but I haven’t played up to my full potential. Then obviously having to deal with this shoulder all over again — it feels like the third time now — but it’s exciting to be back. I’m happy that we were able to figure out a plan that’s worked so far.”
This is what I’m talking about. It seems that the Reds place a high priority on seeing these guys do what they “need to do.”
It’s not exactly the key to October baseball but I guess it’s not nothing.
—
Also:
“… the injection paired with strengthening exercises and maintenance has been viewed as successful so far and Fraley may not need surgery after all in the offseason, he was recently told….”
When this type of information is being fed to and posted on the team’s official page, it is because the Reds want this message out there… even if fans don’t value this philosophy as much as the team does.
I’m just speculating here but it could be that Tito knows this is not really how he wants to build an entire team/identity/etc but he’s just working with the cards he was dealt in 2025.
The roster is thin but (see: Wade Miley) they still need to treat these guys like “professionals” and whatnot.
Fraley being back is largely irrelevant. Maybe he gets traded or non-tendered in the offseason. He’s just not a difference maker these days.
Given that Will Benson and Jake Fraley are basically the same player, what’s the point of having both on the team at the same time?
Injuries occur and good teams have quality depth.
I’ve been saying this for a while. Pick one, and trade the other for as quality RP arms that they will bring.
Now that Fraley is back I guess we can print playoff tickets. What a joke.
They should play CES versus RH pitchers, he is terrible versus the LH pitchers for average and even worse for power. This year he is 2 for 33 against them and for his career .179.
39 strikeouts, 8 walks, 3 2B and 1 HR in 130 career PA vs LHP
2 singles and no walks this year vs LHP
.520 OPS in the last 28 days
.276 OPS this year vs *all pitchers* when he swung at the first pitch.
The grand slam in Fenway was nice but wow, he’s not a major league hitter.
He’s 25.
Yes, a lot of non major league hitters hit grand slams OUT of Fenway Park
I don’t wanna be toooo pessimistic but CES has had 500 MLB PAs.
At 25, there’s a chance he doesn’t get 500 more.
If he can’t maintain a spot on the 2025 Reds, where does he go from here. Pirates, Royals roster filler?
CES stock is very low right now so there’s no reason to sell, but I ain’t buying any either.
CES just needs to be traded to the right team. He may very well become a big power bat if given the chance. The problem is that with Steer, Marte, Stephenson, and Stewart and Collier in the works, it most likely won’t be with the Reds. Being on the A’s or Twins or ChiSox or Rays would probably be better for him.
Reading through the comments, I was thinking the same thing. I don’t believe Encarnacion-Strand or Fraley will be on the 2026 Reds roster. Whether they can package them together with som filler(s) for a veteran outfielder with a couple years contract control would be nice. To be honest, I can see both of them moved before the trade deadline.