Last night during the loss to the Miami Marlins, Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott found out that he was added to the 2025 National League All-Star team after initial being left off of the team. But when it came time to add players to the roster when others who did make the team initially had to back out because of injuries, Abbott was at the top of the list for pitchers.
This season has been a breakout one for the left-handed pitcher. He missed the first two weeks of the season as he recovered from an injury. That missed time has him just shy of being qualified for the ERA title at this point, so he’s technically not listed among the league leaders. But among pitchers with at least 80.0 innings pitched this year only Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes has a lower ERA in the National League than Abbott does with his 2.15 ERA in 83.2 innings pitched.
In those innings, the lefty has given up just 69 hits as hitters have managed just a .220/.272/.357 line against him this year. And he’s been as good against righties as he has lefties this season – in face, righties have an OPS against him 11 points lower this season.
Andrew Abbott has been good in his career up to this season. Between his rookie year in 2023 and last season, he’d thrown 247.1 innings with a 3.78 ERA in 46 total starts. That was good for an ERA+ of 120, which means that after adjusting for all of the ballparks he’s pitched in during that time his ERA was 20% better than the league average.
This year his ERA+ is sitting at 210. That’s just a different level of good. So what is it that has helped Abbott take things to the next level and then some? Zach Crizer wrote about Abbott in the latest Bandwagon newsletter and he pointed out that this year has seen the Reds left-hander alter his release point. Compared to 2023 and 2024 he is releasing the baseball nearly a foot closer to the first base side of the mound than he has in the past. His release point is also about two inches higher than in the past. You can see how this looks in this graphic from Brooks Baseball.
The cluster on the left is from the 2023 and 2024 seasons, while the cluster on the right is from this year. That seems to be the biggest change. His pitch usage has mostly stayed the same, though he has added a cutter this season that he is using a few times per start (5.5% usage this year). None of his other four pitches are moving any differently than they have in the past. But the pitches are getting to the plate at a different angle than they used to. It’s giving hitters a different look than they had in the past. It’s more extreme in where it’s coming from and takes more of a horizontal angle to get to the zone because he’s releasing the ball quite a bit closer to first base than before thanks to his pitching off of the extreme end of the pitching rubber.
Baseball is a battle that is mostly pitcher versus hitter. As the old saying goes – it’s a game of adjustments. The pitchers adjusts to a hitter. Then the hitters adjust to the pitchers. And so on and so forth. Abbott’s made a big adjustment this season and it’s been paying off big dividends as he’s allowed more than one earned run in just three of his 15 starts this season.
Will hitters be able to adjust to what the lefty is doing now? Time will tell. But to this point in 2025 they haven’t really been able to do it.
Great write up. Abbott has just been fantastic this season and has gotten better with each season. I would really love to see the Reds extend him. He’s a great building block to a successful starting rotation. He never gets fazed by hitters and just has this workmanlike moxie to him. Never high, never down, this consistency to him. He’s great to watch pitch and knows where and how to execute his repertoire.
I also think they should extend him now. Don’t know when he becomes ARB eligible, but lock him up for 4 years or so – if that is past his arb date
BBRef says
Earliest Arb Eligible: 2027, Earliest Free Agent: 2030
He’s 25. I don’t know how much more money/years the Reds would be willing to risk but it doesn’t seem like a “Reds move” to try to get lock him in past his arbitration years. Depending on who Abbott’s agent is, would he accept $30-35M guaranteed right now? (If that’s even a good speculative number?) I dunno. I’m asking.
fwiw- Max Fried hit free agency at age 30 and got $220M guaranteed through his 30s. (It’s fun to think about Abbott becoming Max Fried and if you’re Abbott, it’s fun to think about $35M and $220M 😉 )
he has basically produced just like this on every level. Even at UVA he would have outing where you think, not a pro pitcher, and then he would go out the next time and throw 7 innings of one hit ball. Mixed in with Solid efforts in between. He has done this on every level for us now. He is just that guy that makes adjustments. He has a Tom Glavine type style. Not as effective as Glavine was, but, same type style.
Good observation. Being a lefty myself and a (failed) pitcher for a bit, we know that most lefties have a naturally peculiar way of throwing a ball (and handwriting) by having the wrist pointing in more of a downward position. You probably have seen some lefty pitchers that scoot over to the extreme left side of the rubber and throw a curve ball that seemingly breaks a foot or more horizontally. I suspect Abbott has taken advantage of this even though I couldn’t notice anything different.
The Reds need new owners and need to start locking in some of these top tier guys. Guys like Abbott, EDLC, are like Greene and worth locking up. Abbott may be open to signing a long-term deal. And EDLC just needs a grown up to explain the facts of life to him.
He has a grown up speaking the facts of life to him . Unfortunately the grownup is named Scott Boras .
I confess I don’t know how or if private coaching or training exists in baseball.
Did this article cite who suggested this change? Was it our pitching coaching staff? Driveline or some other private firm like that? Did he copy Lodolo, who also throws it practically sideways?
I apologize if this is addressed in the article as I don’t have access.
I give Andrew and his dad most of the credit.
What facts of life need to be explained to Elly De La Cruz?
Probably the entire series. It went off the air about 24 years before he was born.
+50,000 😀
Some major crushes for so many … 😮
LDS usually references the benefit of Elly signing an extension sooner rather than later, hence an economic fact of life (risk vs reward).
*Benefit to Elly
Thank you. I thought that was what he meant. Sometimes I am not sure.
That as good as he is, he’s not immune to the realities of life – injuries, illnesses, big changes to how baseball payrolls/contracts are administered (less likely). Everyone says “bet on yourself”. Sure, as far as it goes. But the reality is that could turn out to be a gamble while money in hand NOW and properly managed sets him up for life, regardless of what happens. It’s just like managing your personal 401K when you’re young. Many folks say they can’t afford to contribute and will do so when they are making more money. And if or when that day never comes…? I doubt that he’ll ever be a billion dollar man. At some point, MLB has to regain sanity and realize that the salary growth is not sustainable. For an LA, sure? Corporate sponsorships, wealthy fans, etc. But the lesser markets ultimately can’t compete and baseball will crash. Revenue sharing schemes will only carry the league so far. It’s kind of like deficit spending, seems like a workable idea until the bills become due.
For a while I’ve thought the EDLC deal would be simply buying out the 1st year of FA, at a comparatively high price – it would be generational wealth for him, and at the edge of the current owners budget. I suspect there is reluctance on both sides, but the deal is there – limited duration for Reds/Huge $$$$ for Elly and still under 30 for free agency.
+10000000, LDS.
It’s nothing at all like managing your own 401k when you are young.
Elly, short of him deciding to retire before free agency, is probably going to bank $30M at worst through arbitration and endorsement money. While plenty of people run through that kind of money, it’s not the same as someone living paycheck to paycheck not putting $100 a month into their 401k hoping that in 40 years it’s made enough of a dent that they can live in retirement.
I agree w/Doug. It’s nothing like managing a 401k.
401k is just being prudent enough to at least put in the % that the company will match to, and picking long-term growth types of funds with higher yields. It’s also $$$ that can’t be easily touched for many years.
While managing a millions of dollars in hand for a young man would be much trickier.
Do they take a chance with Abbott and do like 50 to 60 million for 5 years. Or something like that. Could be more or years but I doubt they go past 6 years.
I would be more comfortable with this deal mostly because Abbott does not have a huge history of getting injured. Plus, the guy is just a workhorse. He had a rough go for one outing so far. I bet he will be closer to where he has been all season in this next start. Abbott has been the Pitching MVP of the team thus far.
Greene has been really good when healthy, but who knows when he is coming back at this point.
Really, really, REALLY like Abbott this season. Love me a LHSP anyway and he’s been so good.
Agree. He reminds me of Tom Browning.
Unless I am playing with house money, I’d say this question won’t (and shouldn’t) be answered until Abbott demonstrates he won’t fade again in the second half.
2023
Aug
IP 23.2 H 29 R 16 ER 16 HR 3 BB 12 K 28
ERA 6.08
Sept
IP 20.2 H 26 R 14 ER 14 HR 4 BB 10 K 21
ERA 6.10
2024
Aug
IP 21.0 H 24 R 13 ER 13 HR 5 BB 7 K 25
ERA 5.57
Sept
DNP
2025
July
IP 3.1 H 9 R 4 ER 4 HR 1 BB 0 K 2
I am pretty sure the fact that i listed the July, 2025 numbers will incur the wrath of some or many, but there is a point: It Bears Watching.
Yeah, I looked at his splits after he had that bad outing on the 4th and then I thought I remembered that he was bad against the Marlins last year. (He was.)
I am expecting he will regress in the second half. And fwiw I’m kind of expecting any of all of the pitchers to regress in the second half. The starters have been outperforming expectations and I think the same could be said for the bullpen through some of June. We may be IN the bullpen’s regression right now, and who knows how it will go?
I, for one, have been regressing for decades …
It occurred to me his complete game may have taken a bit out of him, so his July numbers, for me, have an asterisk. But as i said above, it bears watching, as does the club’s use of him, which is another factor.
I do think a legitimate question with Abbott, of whom I am a fan, is not so much whether he fades again, as it is whether he can push through the dog days with greater success than in the past.
And, in fairness, his innings have been stable and/or increased, which is good, even if the numbers aren’t so good. A tired Andrew Abbott is greater than a AAA rookie who isn’t ready. At a minimum, pitching him still continues to increase innings.
2021: 119.1 (college and minors)
2022: 118.0 (minors)
2023: 163.1 (minors and majors)
2024: 138.0 (DNP after Aug)
2025: 83.2 (goal of @160-165)
Durability, then, is very positive. Next step is consistent effectiveness with that durability, IMO.
Fun to kick this around.
Good analysis Doug, Abbott has been good regarding ERA and ERA+ but how about the peripheral stats like FIP, xFIP, %GB, %K, %Walks? I think if we include those numbers as a whole, maybe Abbott is more “average” right now however he’s notable improving this year…
I didn’t check any “expected” stats but his WHIP is 1.084 which would put him 8th out of 35 qualified pitchers in the NL. Maybe not Cy Young level but still very good. I’d love to see the Reds extend him now a year or two past his arb seasons. And I’m really glad he’s pitching for the Reds right now.
He looks like he is in better shape than last season. Not as pudgy.