Three home runs and a sterling bullpen outing led the Cincinnati Reds to a 4-2 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks before 21,083 at Great American Ball Park.
| Final | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Diamondbacks (31-34) | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Cincinnati Reds (33-33) | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| W: Rogers (2-2) L: Gallen (4-8) Sv: Santillan (2) | |||
| Statcast | Box Score | Game Thread | |||
Most of the 2025 season has been frustrating for Redleg Nation. The Reds have shown flashes of promise, such as this weekend’s sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks. But seemingly every time it feels as though this team is about to chart a winning course, the wheels fall off.
The comeback win was their second of this series, and one of a very slim number for this year (see more on this below). It’s a promising trend. I’ve said it since before this season: Low-scoring games like this are the ones this team must win more often than not if they hope to truly compete. So far, the Reds are 6-10 in one-run games, one of the poorest such records in the majors at the moment.
Matt McLain’s two-run seventh-inning homer broke a 2-2 tie and provided the winning margin, another positive sign. Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s three-game return from the injured list (7-for-12, three homers, six RBIs) was certainly attention-grabbing. I’ll be honest with you guys. I’d pretty much written him off. He’s known for incredible power, but I’ve been waiting to see him demonstrate his skill set at the major league level. This weekend was the best I’ve ever seen him, and I have jumped back on the CES bandwagon. The question now is how he will respond when opposing pitchers and scouts have the chance to break down his strengths and weaknesses. Teams did that two years ago, but that’s been a very long time. I’m anxious to see if he can handle third base defensively, as Barry Larkin hinted at during the telecast. (That play he made on the foul-ball grounder made me gasp.) CES would be a big offensive upgrade over Santiago Espinal, though I maintain that Espinal is the team’s best defensive player.
The win draws Cincinnati back to .500, which we have said numerous times this year. Each time, the trend turns sour and the Reds’ momentum disappears. It’s time for that to change. A long winning streak would be great, but a trend of winning series would be more realistic. The rest of this month’s series are challenging: Cleveland, Detroit, Minnesota, St. Louis, New York Yankees and San Diego. They’re all over .500, all in contention, and this is when we’ll learn what this team is truly made of.
More positivity: The Cubs and Brewers have already lost today, and the Cardinals are down 7-3 in the eighth inning against the Dodgers. If that result holds, Cincinnati will gain a game on all three teams ahead of them in the National League Central standings. As this post goes live, the fourth-place Reds are two games behind Milwaukee, four games behind second-place St. Louis, and 7 1/2 behind the Cubs.
The Offense
Cincinnati hitters’ combined box-score line: 6-for-28 (.214), 3 walks drawn, 6 strikeouts, 0-for-2 with runners in scoring position.
In the fourth inning, Encarnacion-Strand homered for the third game in a row after returning from the injured list to put his team on the board. His solo shot brought Cincinnati within 2-1 at the time. His average improved to .229 from the .150s during this series.
In the fifth, leadoff hitter Jose Trevino hit a hanging breaking pitch into the left-field seats to tie the score at 2-2.
An inning later, with one out, Elly De La Cruz fell behind 0-2 to Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen, but ended up drawing a walk. Encarnacion-Strand followed with a line single to left. Unfortunately, with Will Benson at the plate, De La Cruz fell asleep and was picked off second by Gallen. Benson then grounded out to end the inning.
With Gallen still pitching in the bottom of the seventh, Jake Fraley lined a two-out single to right, and Matt McLain followed with a no-doubt two-run bomb to left to give the Reds the lead, 4-2, which turned out to be the winning margin.
The Pitching
The box score line: 9 innings, 5 hits, 3 walks, 8 strikeouts and 2 runs. The bullpen pitched the final four innings without allowing a baserunner.
Starter Brady Singer allowed a solo home run to Eugenio Suarez, his 101st career bomb at Great American Ball Park, in the second inning for a 1-0 Arizona lead. Then in the third, an RBI single by Corbin Carroll put the visitors up 2-0.
In the fifth, the inning after having a line drive strike his pitching arm’s triceps, Singer walked two of the first three batters he faced. But a double-play grounder off the bat of Geraldo Perdomo to Matt McLain went 4-6-3 to end the inning.
With the Reds having tied the score at 2-2 in the previous half-inning, Manager Terry Francona summoned Scott Barlow to pitch the top of the sixth. With a 1-2 count to the inning’s leadoff hitter Josh Naylor, rainfall hit suddenly and the game was delayed for 31 minutes. Barlow stayed in after the delay, retired Naylor, struck out Suarez swinging and retired Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on a fly ball to center.
Taylor Rogers pitched the seventh, retiring the lower third of the Arizona batting order 1-2-3. He returned in the eighth, after McLain’s go-ahead homer. and duplicated the feat against the top three D-backs batters. He was a deserving winning pitcher.
Tony Santillan got the call in the ninth inning, retiring the Diamondbacks in order quickly to earn his sixth career save.
One Fan’s Thoughts
It’s not exactly breaking news that the Reds have had trouble coming from behind this season. Here’s one of the big reasons why:
Before today’s game, the team batting statistics when trailing in a game: .221 / .290 / .370 / .660.
Compare that to when they are tied: .229 / .304 / .394 / .698.
And when they are ahead: .273 / .354 / .416 / .770.
The “when ahead” numbers are convincingly better than the other two varieties. Same players, different situations. So the question is why? What do you think?
In today’s game, the numbers were:
Tied: 3-for-13, including the McLain two-run homer; Behind: 3-for-11 with the two solo homers; Ahead: 0-for-4.
Up Next for the Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Guardians
Monday, June 9, 6:40 p.m. ET
Wade Miley (0-0, 18.00 ERA) vs. L.L. Ortiz (3-6, 4.02 ERA)
CES has been a real shot in the arm. The boys are playing with a little swagger and hopefully Hays, Candelario, and even Marte can come along shortly to help keep the momentum going forward. We’ve been treading water. Maybe we’ll see some
Well, two out of those three maybe!
+10000
Chance to go over .500 and Miley is pitching, hope the bats show up.
I was a big fan of both Miley and Sonny Gray when they were with the Reds a few seasons ago! Honestly, starting Miley in Game 1 of the series against a very good Cleveland team worries me!
Starting Miley against any team worries me.
I think mileys best days are behind him. I hope im wrong.
i have very little confidence with MILEY on the bump. I would love to be surprised,
Big sweep! Holding them to 2 with essentially our B team pitching wise is remarkable considering the ball seemed to be jumping.
Many,including me, have called for Hinds to return, but it’s easy to forget these are real people and real team chemistry & not fantasy baseball. Personally I’d bring up Hinds and IL Steer. I’d try Candy over Steer at this point, but chemistry is a tricky thing. Fraley would be on the cutting edge too. Some tough decisions
I agree we tend to forget these are real people. I also agree Steer is a man on the bubble for playing time. The crunch could come as soon as Hays return when they’ll be looking for spots for Hays, Lux, CES, and one of the LH hitting OF duo of Fraley and Benson.
Maybe the move to just 2 catchers on the active roster will make Tito less aggressive about using Stephenson as the DH. Presuming Hays plays in the field versus DH with CES 1b Lux at 3b, his might mitigate the crunch in the short term; but, would still leave Steer and one of the LH hitting outfielders for a single spot at DH (or LF if Hays is limited to DH).
But this is a better problem to have than shuffling bench players around as starters.
If Hays is back as anticipated, Hinds is better left at AAA for now. I believe this because while watching at least some of the Bats game most days. I see growth in Hinds.
For example, again today, he drew a walk by challenging a called third strike and winning the challenge. That’s at least the second time he has done this in the last week. The walk today came on the seventh pitch of the PA. He also hit a HR today as the climax to a 6 pitch PA. His other PA was an infield groundout on the sixth pitch (3-2 count) of the PA. He’d probably like to have that one back though, as Gameday showed it as a sweeper which was a clear ball 4 if he had not swung.
Steer is the best 1st baseman defensively and he has been hitting the past few games. Putting Candy and his glove at first or third and reducing the defense is not wise. Steer will get as many hits as Candy and Lux is terrible against lefties but hey ….
Agree JB, Steer is a very good defensive first basemen.
He has also been hitting better. Mclain is the one who should be worried. Might be best to unload Candy though.
So, Candy is DH, Marte at 3B, CES at 1B, Steer in LF, Hays in RF? Lux to the bench. Benson to AAA–he doesn’t look good defensively. Hampson and Joe dfa’d?
I like Lux in that two hole. He makes a lot of contact, hits for average and sees a lot of pitches. Candy has to go IMHO unless the Reds have an injury. I doubt we see him tear up Triple A pitching anytime soon.
Excellent summary Tom. I agree this is the hardest stretch in the schedule for the reds. I am hoping we can remain at the .500 mark going into July. Then we have the marlins and rockies at home to close the first half. You would ?ike to think we could head into the all star break5-6 games over .500 . That would be a big confidence booster for the team and the fans.
Cant the Reds just dispense with the Candy experiment, bite the bullet and let him go? Its money down the drain already. Hes been as much of a waste as Moustake-is and the OFer from a year or two ago whose name escapes me now. Just a complete miss by the Reds front office. Admit it and move on.
That seems short-sighted to me. Candelario put up a .241/.298/.461/.760 slash line in 352 PA with 16 HR with a 112 OPS+ in the first half last season when he was mostly healthy. A second half like that this year could be pretty useful.
Wil Myers?
I only remember because he only had one “L” in his first name. Every time I commented on him or Will Benson I had to figure out which one had one “L” and which one had two “Ls”. Fortunately, that was a short term problem.
A good day for our Reds! A good day, indeed! The three teams ahead of the Reds in the NL Central Division ALL LOST! Now we just need the Braves to come back and beat the Giants to gain ground in the NL Wild Card race!
CES is pretty hot now, although we should know this stretch is unsustainable in long term so Reds have to take advantage while it lasts…
The bullpen was outstanding today. However, I wonder why Pagán didn’t close the game being a saving option… Could he be hurt?
I expected Austin Hays was going to be activated today since it was reportedly he was recovering successfully…Any uptade about him?
I was hearing Jim Day saying Hunter Greene had a clean results from MRI but he feels pain on his groin, low back and hip areas so he will have an extended time on IL it should be talked on week-by-week not on day-to-day time…They want he gets healthy 100% ….Well according to this it seems we will see much of Wade Miley…
We are all for getting Greene 100% healthy but we heard that before. It seems the Reds do not know how to handle Greene groin injury. With that said, with the pitching staff we have, not having Greene this year does not have as big an impact as previous years. I just miss seeing him pitch more than anything.
It has a tremendous impact.
Exhibit A: Tomorrow night’s starter.
Other than starting the service time clock, isn’t Chase Burns the logical move here?
CES slashed .333/.376/.678 from August 30 to the end of 2023, and hit at all levels he played at, so there is no reason to think that he can’t be a very solid contributor from here on.
Nobody thinks he’s going to hit a homer a game (96 HRs) the rest of the season, but he will likely hit more the rest of the season than any other Red.
OBE>> I agree. I do not see the logic in McLain getting a pass from folks as returning from injury but CES not getting one. It turns out CES was likely injured all 0f 2024 even though he tried to play for a month in 2024.
Also while what he has done this weekend is not fully sustainable, it speaks to the wisdom of keeping guys returning from long layoffs on extended rehab stints (or, in Steer’s or McLain’s case, actually sending them on rehab).
“Nobody thinks he’s going to hit a homer a game (96 HRs) the rest of the season” that’s exactly I mean, of course he could be a solid hitter and help a lot but his actual streak I think he can´t keep it in long-term
I’m sure if he heard anything about Hays at the time, he would
uptade us right then and there.
The good news about the sweep is the DBacks are neither terrible nor bad. They’re in a tough spell, but they’re not the Marlins, White Sox or Rockies. Avoiding any injuries the next few weeks could see them move on from Joe and Hampson, which would mean a pretty solid 13-man position roster.
The next big hurdle is likely getting 4 or 5 innings from Miley without serious crooked numbers. Even 4 ip and 3 runs could hold down bullpen stress. Still think we will see 2 of 3, of Burns, Petty and Phillips before September, and one of them will have to be better than just OK.
Looking forward to seeing Burns! Maybe in September when the rosters expanded?
I’d say before September.
McLain. Batted .120 something in April. Batted .190 something in May. Batting .270 something so far in June.
It would be great if McLain is turning it around. He’s easily my favorite position player, but even I have been wondering why the Reds haven’t sent him to AAA yet.
A good McLain, CES, and Benson would be a big difference for the Reds.
Good news!
And Lux’s average is dropping.
Exactly! Now would be the worst time to bench him. Reds need him to get in playoff contention.
A lot of baseball left but at 3 under and the offense was faltering, it was looking bleaked. CES coming back and providing offense firework came at the perfect time. Not sure what it is, but on the offense Reds Dont have any consistent player aside from TJ, but have a number of players capable of having unbelievable stretch of power surge. Wet likely that CES will come back down to earth but hey Hays is coming back.
.500 team is what the Reds are unless offense shows more life consistently. Winning closed game is an art, taking mental strength and a never give up, never let go of the rope mentality and the Reds just don’t have it collectively.
Trevino once again provides a spark with his bat and, as usual, great defense. Great pickup by Krall. On the other hand, pretending that Miley is going to be the pitcher he was 2-3 years ago is nuts. I hope I’m wrong but tomorrow could be a momentum killer.
Not only a good pickup but great foresight in Spring Training to extend him.
When/if Hayes Candy and Marte return the Reds offense becomes deeper and better.Will it be good enough to catch up and earn a play off spot?Probably not because there are some really good teams in the East and the West.Power wins games and today they only had 6 hits but 3 left the park and they earn the sweep.CES can carry a team as can Elly and Benson did it for 5 games.Hinds has done it and others are capable.Reds still need another power guy in the pen and it would be nice if was a lefty and a right handed hitting outfielder with power since HInds isn’t being given a chance.
I was told before the series that the Reds pitching isn’t good and Arizona’s offense will crush them. So what happened? Sometimes I come here for the laughs.
Funny how there are a fraction of the comments after a win. It’s ok to think this team doesn’t stink! ?
1000%
Hey sultanofswaff. I tend to think of it as a culmination of over 30 years of mostly bad to mediocre teams and when the Reds start to play bad yet again it brings out the justified frustration. I for one am just waiting for the seemingly never ending injury bug to subside to finally be able to see what kind of a team we have at relatively full strength for an extended length of time. This team is not built for 3/4 or half strength. Competent depth is not something the Reds can or will pay for.
After losing two out of three to the Brewers (who I don’t think have a great offensive team), I know that I was anticipating the Diamondbacks scoring a lot more runs against the Reds.
Fortunately, the Reds’ pitching was pretty solid this weekend, and the team got some big hits (and put up a lot of numbers on Saturday). The pitching surely lived up to their actual ability, it seems.
So yeah, sure, I am pleased but surprised that the Reds handled the Diamondbacks so well this weekend. Last year, the Diamondbacks really had it over on the Reds, both here and in Arizona.
Last year is last year.
Without underestimating the Reds I was expecting more from the Snakes, yet they’re outscored 21-6. The outcome of the next six series will seal their fate, let’s hope for a prompt return of Hays, Marte & Greene.
Fantastic series! Everytime I’m ready to check out, they pull me back in.
However, with the momentum we currently have, it seems like a terrible decision to start Miley next game. I truly hope he proves me wrong, but this is yet another disappointing move by Reds’ management.
CES has carried the team since his return just as Benson when he came back. Give him about a week and he will end up about where he started as has Benson since his hot spell. Elly touts himself as the fastest human on the planet and he might be but he is also one of the worst base runners in MLB. The amount of outs he makes on the basepaths is mind-boggling. If the offense doesn’t consistently improve they will be out of it by July. I’m not falling for signs of life just yet.
Welcome back CES! Just 3 games back and all but what a difference maker he can be. Plus, he said that this is the first time at the MLB level that he’s been fully healthy. That is huge. His power is tantalizing. Additionally, he looked great at 3B. Strong arm and he can move. Happy for him and for the sweep. Nice to be at .500 and hopefully we can take steps forward with a more consistent offense.
Great to see McLain with some offense. He’s clearly talented but with about 200 AB’s this season and a well below a .200 average it’s been time for him to produce. He’s been fortunate that Tito has given him so many chances. It would be fantastic if he can heat up and produce to the level that we all expect from him.
Not at all enthused about Miley. Great guy but coming off of major surgery at his age and watching the batting practice level he showed in relief was scary. I know Petty has looked awful in his very limited MLB experience I still think he gives us a better chance.
Optimism always rides high after a sweep. I’m impressed by CES on his return. Hope he keeps it up.
Off to Cleveland and the Guardrails … hoping Miley can give us something to stand in the gap until HG is back.
I would take 4 innings and 3 runs given up from Miley right now. Bullpen should be good to go outside if Taylor and maybe Santillan
Reds don’t need to “rewrite” the season script, they just need to keep writing it – after sustaining a huge number of injuries, slumps, and a new manager getting acclimated.
The script was never written except by those who think the script is only 2 months long (and wanted us to start preparing for next year’s script by trading for more scriptwriting prospects)!
Indeed. Nice post.
+1
Everybody has injuries and problems. The MIGHTY DODGERS, with their gigantic payroll, are only 10 games over .500 right now.
Injuries are part of the game. Maybe the Reds will get “lucky” for a couple months and not get hit with any more injuries that wreck their chances.
The Dodgers are 12 games over .500. Well, shucks.
Hey David. Of course everybody has injuries but you said it yourself even with injuries the Dodgers are 10 games over .500 The Dodgers are mighty because they spend an insane amount of money. They have 15 guys on the IL right now including guys like Snell and Glasnow. They can afford to lose guys like that and still be in first place. Most teams including the Reds can not.
The sweep was nice but you almost wonder if the shot in the arm came too late. Got to keep stacking series wins but need a few more sweeps.
Very good write up Tom as usual.
Yes to this!
Great to see Santillan closing the game. The Reds should trade Pagan by the deadline and will need a closer. Martinez, Rogers and Barlow should also be moved and I can see Richardson, Suter and Ashcraft in more important roles in the second half of the season. Hopefully by the deadline, Greene is right and ready to step back into the rotation. I think most fans would like to see Burns in the rotation too at some point after the All-Star break. Burns should be promoted to Louisville tomorrow and it’ll give him 7 starts there before the All-Star game, plus a few more before the trade deadline. It’ll be a good gauge of where he’s at and he could be in the rotation at or right before the trade deadline for the Reds. Greene, Lodolo, Burns, Abbott and Singer for the stretch run
Philips is doing well at AAA. One really bad outing has skewed is ERA.
Trading that much of the bullpen makes sense if the Reds are officially giving up on the season, and maybe they are, but 2/3 of the season remains, so mightn’t it be a bit premature to give up? Particularly with possible help on the near horizon from players returning from injury? I don’t know about Martinez. Given his contract situation, it may make sense to trade him, but it’s not true that the Reds have a surplus of starting pitching: Nobody does, given the injury rate, and Miley is starting the first game of an important series against a good team.
It seems fairly straightforward the opposing teams use their better relievers when they’re up 1-4 runs than down by similar margins. Or you’re down because you’re facing the other team’s ace and he’s out-pitching your guy. I’d be surprised if the majority of teams don’t have similar disparities. At least, I’m not sure how to read the statistics without at least some comparable numbers.
Sitting at .500 is exactly where this team is supposed to be. There is enough talent on the team to finish with a winning record, but only if they have good injury luck.
The difference between the Reds and a big-market team is the depth. A few injuries to the Reds mean we start Santiago Espinal, Connor Joe, and Garrett Hampson. And send Wade Miley to the mound.
Correct about the depth – they need to get to the point where the last two position spots on the roster alternate between Espinal and Candy, and if needed, Hinds. Ideally, around the deadline, the issue should come down to can Hinds be the 13th spot, and can they move Candy in a bad-contract swap.
But they’re still around .500 playing that bunch! Good things could be on the horizon.
+1000
HG’s career high was 26 starts/150 ip last year. Idk? If he can’t come back and pitch consistently in the 2nd half then I’d look to move him. His effectiveness is based on 99-100 mph and that won’t last forever. Its a bummer because he’s everything you’d want from an ace as far as attributes.
@Indy, isn’t Greene the guy you want taking the ball in game 1 of a playoff series? You can’t trade him unless you want to scrap this whole team.
Exactly. As soon as the Reds get great pitching from guys people want to trade him. It’s incredible.
Well the flip side is if the ace of a small market team misses 10-12 starts every year then there is no playoff series. I don’t want to trade him, but you might get a windfall back
We’ve seen .500 before. Which way we going this time?
In my humble and not expert opinion, I think that the Reds will play well for a while, but whether they can sustain winning and make up ground on the teams ahead of them, has yet to be seen.
I don’t think Wade Miley is the answer. His arm may be getting a little stronger, but Father Time is going to get him sooner or later (probably sooner).
We’ve seen Chase Petty, and while I think he will make it up here and be successful some day, I don’t think it’s going to be this year.
I would like to see Burns AND Acuna promoted to AAA, and see how they both do. Make room for one or both on the 40 man roster, because I think that one (or both!) will be needed before the season is over.
Lowder is on the 60 day IL, and has an injury that while is not crippling, takes rest and time to heal. I don’t know of the Reds can count on him before September.
Way to grind out the win, Cinci!
Things seem to be coming together a bit. Hopefully they can keep it going. Hopefully McLain has turned the corner and CES can stay hot.
Any sweep is great, but this one just felt so huge. Offense and pitching finally produced together.
https://www.mlb.com/reds/news/reds-promote-top-prospect-chase-burns-to-triple-a?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
Yeah. I was watching Chatterbox Sports and they reported it there. His call up should be no surprise to anyone right? I just don’t want to use up all of the limited innings he has left this year pitching in the minors when he could be helping the Reds. We’ll see how it goes.
@Melvin, I think the Reds organization believes that a pitching prospect is obligated to pitch in each level. I doubt he’s in AAA long. I think he’s ready to go today and should be pitching in Greene’s spot instead of Miley.
I like Miley, and I think he has a chance of being good, but Burns has a better chance imo.
Melvin, I know from our “conversations” here that, like me, you watch a lot of the Bats games. One thing that jumps out to anyone who does this is that there doesn’t seem to be much more than a fleeting wisp of occasional hope for any significant MLB help from the pitching crew there.
Over the weekend, news leaked that Hunter Greene was most likely out on a week-to-week basis versus a day-to-day basis. A Burns promotion to AAA is seemingly a corresponding move to that news.
Another mental error by EDLC.
Well, no one is talking about his OAA this year at SS. I guess it no longer supports their position. He’s an incredible 3B, and has the tools to be a great CF.
Doug Flutie was a surprisingly good QB, but Dan Marino was built for the position. There are ideal body types for different positions for a reason. The transitions that a SS needs to make with the ball and feet are better done with less gangly limbs.
You will also notice at Baseball Savant that his speed is down this year to 28.9 ft/sec from 30+ ft/sec in 2024 and 2023. The Red’s broadcast team has mentioned that he’s dealt with a leg injury this year. His range is also down, which would seem to correspond to whatever leg issue he’s dealing with.
As for where he should play … he should play SS as long as he’s the Red’s best SS because that’s the position involved in the most plays and the place where the team’s best athlete can deliver the most value. There is considerable research that supports this approach.
QBs tend to be tall because it allows them to see the field better than shorter players. Still, there are exceptions … Drew Brees is the best modern example of an outstanding NFL QB who illustrates exceptions can be tremendously successful. Further, there is a much wider variance in height for successful MLB shortstops. Many sports positions seem to have a significant variation in height among their most successful players. In the NBA, it’s often the players who don’t fit the traditional molds that become mismatch problems for their opponents. But rather than citing other pro sports, is there definitive evidence that there is a height that is too tall for playing SS at an elite level? For example, would a pro scout agree that EDLC is too tall? At least in EDLC’s case, the 2023 and 2024 data contradicts your assertion.
“As for where he should play … he should play SS as long as he’s the Red’s best SS because that’s the position involved in the most plays and the place where the team’s best athlete can deliver the most value. There is considerable research that supports this approach.”
That’s the crux of the issue for me, he isn’t the best SS we have. McLain is better. While McLain might not have the ability to get to the 3% of balls that EDLC does, he doesn’t make nearly as many errors.
@Dave has brought up McLain’s durability issues, and to me that’s the best argument against McLain being our SS. It’s a lot easier to replace your everyday 2B, than it is your everyday SS.
It’s really a moot point for 2025, as I don’t see a possible switch coming until Arroyo arrives. Even then they could stick with EDLC at SS.
2024 14 OAA for EDLC
2025 -4 OAA for EDLC
I’m just pointing out that everyone used his OAA as the key indicator that EDLC is the best option at SS, and this year there are crickets about his negative OAA.
Great post, BK.
@MBS, if McLain is the best SS, then so be it. I think the lack of discussion about EDLC’s defense is that there aren’t good options to push him off the position right now. McLain has been on the struggle bus, and as you note, Arroyo is likely at least a year away. It will be worth watching to see how EDLC’s OOA changes if he can regain some of his speed. He simply hasn’t been the Gingerbread Man this year.
“But rather than citing other pro sports, is there definitive evidence that there is a height that is too tall for playing SS at an elite level? For example, would a pro scout agree that EDLC is too tall? At least in EDLC’s case, the 2023 and 2024 data contradicts your assertion.”
I didn’t intentionally leave this argument out.
I cite other sports as they are illustrative to positional differences. There are baseball examples like 1B’s are ideally tall left handed guys, and catchers are thicker squatty guys. Starting pitchers are typically over 6 feet tall, and under 6 feet tall pitchers typically end up in the pen.
There are always exceptions to these generalizations but they are generalizations because those are the typical body types that tend to thrive in their respective positions.
EDLC had a 1 OAA in 23 as a SS, and McLain had a 2 OAA, so the 2023 numbers contradict my opinion.
EDLC
2023 DWAR -0.1
2024 DWAR 0.8
2025 DWAR 0.1
McLain (only year as SS)
2023 DWAR 0.8
@MBS, EDLC’s 2024 OAA number was a pretty big. Even with a pile of concentration-based fielding errors, he was among the league’s very best. Moreover, two different Reds professional coaching staffs have decided to play EDLC at SS over McLain thus far. Lastly, their 2023 numbers are very close and appear inconclusive.
As for EDLC’s size … I understand your analogy, but I can provide just as many illustrative examples that work in the opposite direction. For example, tall wide receivers have a larger catch radius and tend to have an advantage over more traditionally sized defensive backs. Big guards in basketball, ones that have equal outside shooting touch and ball-handling skills as their smaller peers, are actually preferred over the more normative-sized players because they can shoot over their opponents and are more versatile on defense.
Here’s my question, and I don’t know the answer: Does your generalized argument about size apply to shortstops, or is EDLC within a reasonable body type that scouts believe is workable? I don’t recall reading scouting reports when he was a prospect suggesting that he should be moved.
But if EDLC is outside the norms (provided there is a norm for SS), does his skillset make him an exception to the case?
@BK, 1 managerial staff has, in 2023 there was a fair amount of mixing of EDLC 3B/SS, and McLain 2B/SS. McLain missed 2024 and was therefore not a viable option.
Tito didn’t exactly shake up anyone’s role on the team with the exception of maybe Diaz who is currently in the Dodgers minors.
EDLC is unusually gifted which is why it’s not crazy to bet on him becoming a great SS. I’d just make safer bets is all.
btw this was all about the OAA not being mentioned in 2025. The rest of this is a well worn argument.
I agree; it’s a well-worn argument, but aren’t you the one that (re-)started this conversation?
One last point. When McLain was hurt in ST, he had made four starts at 2B and one at SS. In the 2023 season, McLain did not play shortstop after August 2; he exclusively played second base until he was hurt. From that date, EDLC started at shortstop for the remainder of the season. So, both coaching staffs have preferred EDLC at SS.
I did start it, but just to point out that the old argument for EDLC as SS which was based on OAA was no longer valid, or at least more in question.
The Aug 2nd deadline might have more to do with India being injured from July 28th to Sept 10th. McLain was also injured and didn’t play another game after Aug 27th.
If Marte was the one that was hurt, and India healthy McLain would have likely taken the lion share of SS time.
BK and MBS: Excellent, thoughtful and civil discussion. Good reading. Thanks.
He leads the world in those on the basepaths unfortunately…
Chaos Theory says that nothing ever repeats exactly… Does Chaos Theory apply to baseball ? Absolutely. The Pitcher throws chaos to the batter. The batter tries to impose his will, or Order onto that chaos. The success the batter has is strictly limited, but again within bounds of chaos theory. Order appears occasionally against the background of chaos, but when it appears it tends to repeat. The way the Reds have been hitting is explained very well by Chaos Theory. Moments of Order appear, but then disappear, sometimes resulting in runs, but most often not. Life is that which creates Order out of Chaos. Pitchers too, have a way of creating Order out of the Chaos they are engaged in. When they pitch well, their throws, while chaotic, conform to an Order that makes the ball difficult to hit and falls within the strike zone…
So, how much Order can you expect in the midst of so much Chaos ? Not too much ! The Order that results in runs being produced is not very predictable at all. And the Order that the pitcher commands seems almost just as allusive. The game is stacked against the hitter though, because getting a base hit always occurs less often than an out.
Is there anything in this that helps the Reds win more games ? Probably not, but it may ease your mind to know what we’re dealing with. James Gleick wrote the Book on Chaos Theory. One of the best reads ever.
I appreciate your article Tom but the reason for the better hitting stats while ahead is easy. Teams don’t use their best bullpen pieces when they are behind, so of course the hitting stats will be better.
Good point, thanks.
With 60% of the season to go, I’ll take it a game at a time. Hopefully Miley comes through with a couple good innings with the offense getting some runners across from scoring position. At least a split of this week’s road trip is needed.
This team looks and feels different. The core of McClain, Elly, CES, and Marte is real. Stephenson has been consistent and Trevino has been phenomenal. Friedl didn’t have a great day in the box but he hit the ball hard all over the field and climbed the fence to try to steal Geno’s HR. This team is very capable of a decent run. Getting hot in the hardest stretch of the schedule should prepare them well for great things in July and August.
The reason for the Reds having better numbers when ahead vs behind, etc. is simple. When ahead, you are more likely than not o be facing lesser competition than when you are behind.
It’s the same reason batters, over their careers, are almost universal 5% better with RISP. When you are hitting with RISP it means you are facing a pitcher who let them get there. Bad pitchers let them get there more often than good pitchers. Thus, numbers that are a notch above career averages.
One of the main reasons for better RISP numbers is the fact that SF is an unregistered out that does not count in the calculation. If SFs were registered outs, RISP would look much different universally.
Well, with runners on base, pitchers usually throw from the stretch position, instead of the full windup.
I don’t know how many pitchers actually work (on the side) pitching out of the stretch instead of the windup.
I do remember reading about Greg Maddux, routinely working out of the stretch, in the bullpen, between starts.
Pitching out of the stretch usually means getting the ball to the plate faster (preventing a stolen base), but also might mean a little lower velocity or other pitches not doing exactly what the pitcher wants it to do.
Good context, thanks, all.
Any other old-timers have a comparison for CES? Fullback type body reminds me of Bench in a way, but I don’t remember JB being a bad ball hitter that took such awkward swings that ended up going 390 feet. In Gabp he could battle Ohtani for NL HR leadership and tagging up to 2nd on a routine flyball really caught my attention too.
I saw Willson Contreras do that to the Reds/Friedl a few years ago and when a big market team is also playing harder/smarter then you’re in a bad place.
Something about the way CES stands in and awaits the pitch reminds me of Tony Perez.
See de ball. Hit de ball, as Tony said in his earlier days before his English was more refined. In those early days, Tony also liked to say that he wanted to be the “big stick” in the Reds lineup. If CES turns into a 21st century Big Stick, I couldn’t care less which pitches he hits in the process.
I agree Jim. Perez is the first to come to mind . He was streaky and would strike out a ton. But he would go through stretches where you could not get him out. Tony would always seem to frustrate you but at the end of the year he would always give you 100 rbis. Hopefully CES cam stay healthy like Perez and remain a fixture in the mifdle of the redslimeup for years to come.
I was thinking his body type was along the lines of Albert Pujols, Adrian Beltre, or Adres Gallaraga.
Rose-colored glasses time – J.D. Martinez. Huge power, sneaky-good hands, no eye, AAAA late bloomer. His last year in Houston he had 82 strikeouts, 10 walks, 7 homers in 310 PA. The Astros cut him during spring training 2014. Straight up released him. He was 26. A month later they looked really stupid.
(Coming up with less optimistic names is easier. Wily Mo Pena. Matt Davidson. Dayan Viciedo. Craig Paquette. J.P. Arencibia. Righty Mickey Moniak. Maybe Bo Jackson? … a lot of guys with stats like that just had holes in their bats, and that’s not CES’ problem. Not his biggest problem, anyway.)
Well, Wily Mo Pena got traded to the Bosox for Bronson Arroyo, and he became only a part time (infrequent) player for them, which really stunted his career.
Too bad, really. He was incredibly strong, and could have developed into quite a formidable power hitter. He was a guy that had to play every day to keep his timing and swing together.
Power hitters are normally kind of streaky. When their timing is good, it seems that they can hit anything out.
Back in 1977, when George Foster hit 52 HR, one day he hit 3 Homers.
One of them was a curve that was ‘way inside ( a ball). He just stepped into the “Bucket” as they say and swatted it out.
In the ’72 World Series, Game 6, Johnny Bench hit a homer off of Vida Blue that was not even in the strike zone, a fastball around the ankles, but he was looking for it. I remember watching that game, and afterward Vida Blue said it wasn’t even in the strike zone.
Maybe a little Kevin Mitchell to his physique and game ?
I’m just glad they are getting (relatively) healthy, the results will definitely improve but if they don’t they really need to know who the building blocks are/are not. Having McClain, CES, Marte and even Arroyo, Collier miss significant time over the past 2 seasons is not helping them identify the long term holes and wasting the Hunter/Elly window.
Agree 100% Redgoggles. A team that spends as little as the Reds do have to rely on lots of luck in the injury department, something the Reds have not seen in a long time making players like EDLC a luxury. Unless the Reds find lots of extra change between the seat cushions or see their injury luck change drastically or both they need to seriously think about trading Elly whenever he will garner the biggest return. That typically means the most years remaining on his contract before he is a FA.
It is now official that Chase Burns has been promoted to AAA Louisville.
From the Reds official Player Development account and reposted by @reds:
https://x.com/RedsOnTheRise/status/1932118021062979992
And of course, the Bats are pretty happy about Burns arrival too.
https://x.com/LouisvilleBats/status/1932129041739329579
i have very little confidence with MILEY on the bump. I would love to be surprised,
I wonder if Wade and Dave Miley are related?
Espinal back at 3B tonight. At least he’s batting 7th instead of 2nd. Steer gets a night off I guess. CES @ 1B hitting 4th again so that’s good. Personally if they’re going to play CES at 3B I’d just leave him there and let him get comfortable. They may not want to play TS at 1B but maybe they could try Trevino there to keep his bat in the lineup. It would be preferable to Espinal. Let’s keep the winning going.
Espinal was playing so much and not producing, but I’m hoping he starts hitting again. He’s valuable when just hitting a little even.
But I hear you, if CES could be the everyday power hitting 3B would be good. Is he considered above average defensively? initially I didn’t think he would be a good everyday 3b defensively but maybe so.
CES looking good there and has always been underrated defensively in my view. Yes I think he could play outfield too which he has done already a few times. The gut feeling I get is that 3B just seems right for him. We’ll see.
@Melvin
Not sure if you saw Espinal replaced CES in the 9 th defensively at 3b. I dont think the Reds view him as the franchise 3b . Marte is now in Arzona starting hitting drills. His ETA has been estimated to be around the AS game.
I suspect the Reds depth chart has marte elly Mclain Ces in the infield with Steer as CO and first base depth. CES is part of the 3b equation while Marte is out but Marte was the every day 3b during his 3 week hot streak
CES has an incredible opportunity to nail down an every day 4/5 hitter and CI- mostly first base. We all hope he takes advantage.
@OS/ Melvin
I am with OS on this one. Assuming everyone gets/ stays healthy and performs, the real pushing and shoving is going to start when Marte comes back.
I’m not sure there will be 3 roster spots for the LH hitters, i.e., Lux, Fraley, and Benson.
If there are 3 roster spots for them, then who goes for Marte? Joe can be safely optioned (for Hays). Unless I’m counting wrong, this brings the spot for Marte down to Hampson, who cannot be optioned, one of the LH bats (Benson can be optioned), or Steer, who can be optioned.
For some reason i thought the reds were off today glad tjey are playing
No doubt its an infield of Marte,Elly,MM and CES.Steer and Candy will DH and maybe Steer in the outfield some.I love Steer but its obvious the shoulder problem has hurt his power and he is really short to be at first.First belongs to CES when he is on the field once Marte returns.
Way to hang in there, Wade. More runs, guys.