Starting pitching hasn’t exactly been a problem for the Cincinnati Reds this season. While prospect Chase Petty has had a tough go of it in his two starts as he filled in for Hunter Greene once and made a start in the doubleheader. Aside from that, things have gone quite well. The inconsistency, and at times outright poor hitting has been what has held the team back.
So why am I writing about Chase Burns joining the Reds rotation? Well, to put it simple: He’s been absolutely dominant when on the mound for the farm system this season and he’s the kind of guy that teams push fast and don’t often just keep in the minor leagues for any real reason once that they show they are ready.
Cincinnati selected Chase Burns out of Wake Forest with the #2 overall pick in last summer’s Major League Baseball draft. They then gave him the largest signing bonus in draft history after he went 10-1 with a 2.70 ERA in 100.0 innings while racking up 191 strikeouts and walking just 30 batters.
Given the workload in college last season for the Reds top rated prospect and then taking basically two months off between the end of the college season and the draft, he – and most other draft picks – did not play in 2024 as professionals.
This season, Burns began his career in High-A Dayton in what feels like the Reds simply giving a gift to the fans and Dragons there a reward for all they do because he was very clearly too good for that level and everyone knew it. He stayed there for three starts before he was moved up to Double-A Chattanooga. The right-handed pitcher has now made four starts there.
This week he made a start in Birmingham about the Barons and allowed one run on two hits, had no walks, and he struck out seven batters. Here are some of the highlights from that outing:
From a pure numbers standpoint, it’s been a very good start to the professional career for Burns. The Reds have had his pitch count monitored quite a bit as he seemed to have a pitch count of 60 pitches in four of his starts, but that looks like it’s been bumped up to around 75 recently. His innings pitched/workload is about all there is to point at to say it has to “get better”, but that’s out of his hands.
When he’s been on the mound he’s thrown 30.2 innings and has a 2.35 ERA between Dayton and Chattanooga. He’s walked just seven batters and he now has 48 strikeouts while facing 116 batters. That’s a 41.4% strikeout rate and a 6% walk rate.
He’s allowed more than one earned run in just one of his seven starts. Opponents are hitting just .193/.241/.349 against him. The platoon splits to this point are nearly identical (.588 OPS for righties and a .591 OPS for lefties). He’s locked in when runners do occasionally reach base against him as hitters are hitting .139/.184/.306 against him when someone is on base for them.
As you are almost certainly aware – he’s got the stuff to back it all up, too. He sits in the mid-to-upper 90’s with his fastball. And that’s not even his best pitch. That would be his slider that works around the 90 MPH mark. He also has a change up and a curve, but those two pitches don’t show up nearly as often.
It probably won’t be long before Burns finds himself in Triple-A because just like when he was in the Midwest League with Dayton, the Southern League with Chattanooga hasn’t seemed to do much to challenge him to this point.
Cincinnati has depth working in their favor. While Hunter Greene is out for now, he’s not expected to miss much time – though we’ve seen how that statement works out sometimes – but beyond that Brady Singer, Nick Lodolo, Nick Martinez, and Andrew Abbott are all getting the job done. Rhett Lowder is currently rehabbing in the minor leagues, too, and should be ready to either join the Reds rotation or head to Triple-A to go every 5th day.
Still if Burns continues to pitch like he has in the minor leagues, it’s going to lead to Nick Krall and Brad Meador to find a way to get Burns into the big leagues to help this team out. He’s got some of the best pure stuff among starting pitchers in all of baseball and if the results are going to be like what they’ve been to this point he’s going to be an absolute difference maker.
You can see the career stats for Chase Burns here.
First, I would look at how well Rhett Lowder is actually doing (and I am not a pitching coach, and am not watching his re-hab starts). Will Rhett be ready before Hunter Greene is back from the IL? Just a question.
Mr. Burns is obviously a great young talent, but I am not that positive about promoting him that fast. Let him pitch into June, and then maybe promote him to AAA and give him some starts there. Maybe he gets a big shot next Spring? Again, not a pitching coach, have not been watching his starts. His stuff is good enough for the Majors, but how about his stamina (innings) and control? Pitches that eat up AA players might not have the same effect on Major League hitters.
And if the Reds are going nowhere in July, hovering around .500 and 10 games out of 1st Place, what is the strategy? Nick Martinez is pitching better (since the first few starts) and his market value has to be rising. The Reds will not have him next year, so why not trade him (if the Reds are out of the race in July, speculation) for something that they would find valuable. And the same for Austin Hays.
The Reds have to be shrewd about a lot of these things, and not live in “I wish it were so!” land.
Lowder is pitching for Louisville tonight.
Thanks, I posted before the update today. Lowder has not been great so far, but is building up his arm strength. I give him a few more starts, as Tito said, to get up to 90 pitches as a starter.
“How quickly can Chase Burns join the Reds rotation?”
Literally right now if they needed him.
I’m sure he’ll be on an innings limit so I’m glad he’s not pitching deep into games. The Reds will be able to use him this year down the stretch even if it’s only in the bullpen. Hopefully he’ll be able to pitch in the playoffs as well.
Hopefully, Burns will be ready by mid summer. The Reds will likely trade Nick Martinez and Brady Singer at the deadline.
Trade Singer? What is his contract status? If he is under contract through next year, I am not sure you trade him. But…if the Reds are “out of it” come July and the offer is good, I guess anything is possible.
He’s a FA after ’26. Certainly, he and Martinez could be traded at the deadline or whenever Miley and Lowder are ready. They alone could bring the position players the Reds need; though, Stephenson could also be moved. Benson is looking good, but he doesn’t hit against lefties. But Lux and Fraley don’t either. Joe hits slightly better for average against lefties but has slightly more power against righties. That may be good enough to pair with Benson, if Benson shows he can stick in the bigs.
Stephenson is not going to be moved. He is 27 and one of the best hitting catchers in baseball last year. Trevino is 32 soon to be 33. Trevino has had 1 year where his OPS was over 700. He is on a hot streak. There are no Catchers in the minors who will be ready in the next few years. People need to stop with this narrative
I doubt that they trade Brady Singer as he’s been solid pretty much and with Lodolo’s iffy health that’d be stupid. Plus the Reds bought into Singer with a significant trade of India too, so I doubt it happens, but Martinez yes!
Maybe, but this team needs ML ready hitters. Deadline trades usually only brings back minor league talent.
“He’s got some of the best pure stuff among starting pitchers in all of baseball and if the results are going to be like what they’ve been to this point he’s going to be an absolute difference maker.”
Nice to believe he is now ready for the big leagues, but it would be good if coaching helped Mr. Burns work on his secondary pitches as well. Certainly the slider is wicked and the fastball has the requisite velocity and appears to move well through the zone perhaps better than some of the other Red’s hard throwers. However, it’s not often that major leaguers fail to come through if there are only two credible offerings to provide. Should he develop just an average changeup, curve, or even a cutter that the hitter has to be aware of then I believe the author and other proponents can make the claims made above. Only hope Mr. Burns continues to shine, but it will also be interesting to see what happens if he gets shelled or how he helps control base runners and what happens the second or third time through the lineup. Thank you.
Wonder if they’d entertain trading Nick Martinez at the deadline depending on our record? Lowder could slide in (or Petty) and then next spring still have an abundance of good starters to figure out. I hate trading pitching but man…this offense. Woof.
Lowder or Petty would not replace Martinez in kind. He is far more experienced and a better pitcher than either of them.
Petty yes but Lowder is pretty advanced for his age. He was a top ten pick based on pitch ability not stuff.
I’m not insinuating either of those youngsters would be on Nick’s level. Big picture.
AB, personally I think Lowder (based on results from last year) is more than capable of replacing Martinez right now if healthy.
What do you base that on? Lowder was arguably the 2nd best starter on the team last year from when he was called up through the end of the season.
Lowder looked incredible in the Show last season but looked pretty bad for most of the year prior. Looks like he’s trying to regain the magic thus far this season but hasn’t yet to be able to. I don’t think you trade him, though. Or Burns or Abbott.
If the team believes there are a finite number of quality pitches in every arm, and Burns convinces the team he is pitching better than someone already at MLB, why shouldn’t they bring him up?
They probably should but limit his pitches so he can pitch late into the season and playoffs. That probably means bullpen?
Since Gullet’s name was dropped below here are some details…..
In 1970, his age 19 season (yes, 19), Gullet made 44 MLB appearances (42 out of the pen) and pitched 77.2 innings.
In 1969, he had made 11 appearances, all starts, and pitched 78.0 innings at Sioux Falls in the old Northern League (short season Class A aka A-).
In 1971, made 35 appearances (32 starts) for the Reds, pitching 217.2 innings. It was a different world back then, wasn’t it?
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gullet001don
It sure was. Gullett pitched 228 and 243 innings in 1973 and 1974. He pitched a lot fewer innings in 1975 and 1976 but still excelled.
His arm was shot by 1978. Nit sure what the injury was.
Starting pitchers then (O’Toole, Nolan, Gullett, Maloney) lasted 10 years.
@OT, My recollection without looking was that Gullet had shoulder issues. He was the right age that if it had been typical elbow stuff, the Yanks would have made him a TJ surgery pioneer.
Whoever’s AI takes sway when I Google from inside Edge browser just told me Gullet’s injury was “a double tear of his rotator cuff, which he sustained in 1978 while with the New York Yankees.”
Jim, let’s not forget “Cool” Billy McCool who, I believe, was 19 when the Reds brought him up.
Sammy Ellis worth mentioning as well.
If Jim O’Toole, Gary Nolan, Don Gullett, or Mike Leake could pitch for Reds with similar (or less) experience, then Chase Burns can, too.
O’Toole, Nolan, and Gullett pitched one year in minors. Leake pitched none.
Nolan, Gullet, Maloney, and O’Toole were great pitchers but clearly the Reds overworked them. They all retired with injuries by age 30. Simpson was the biggest atrocity.
Maloney retired because he tore his Achilles tendon, not because of his arm. O’Toole was clearly overworked by Reds.
Yes he did. But Maloney was a fireballer and I wonder if the Achilles tear happened from overcompensating to protect a sore arm.
Maloney tore his Achilles in Spring Training of 1970, as I recall. Maloney was no spring chicken, and I think he did not recover well from the repaired Achilles tendon, which is why he retired. And yes, favoring it could have hurt his arm. And in 1970, running with a four man rotation of Merritt, McGlothlin, Nolan and Simpson, probably led to Simpson’s shoulder injury, which wrecked a promising career, and led to overwork of Jim Merritt, “the Badger” who wore out his arm that year. He was done in 1971.
Just 29 in spring training 1970. It was the end of a very good career but shortened career. Having him and Simpson (Hunter Greene before Hunter Greene) on those Big Red Machine would have helped win a few more World Series. Bench said Simpson had the best stuff of any Reds pitcher.
Simpson was the tragic case – it was the rotator cuff, not the elbow, so there’s a question of the extent to which coaching/mechanics could have preserved or prevented that. Check out the BRef bio – I only saw him at a game once, but even on pre-HD TV you could tell he was dominant.
From Sabr
“From the start of the 1969 season through July of 1970, Simpson. . .had logged more than 400 innings.” He was 21 years old. That’s insane. What a way to protect your phenom and future ace.
Jim O’Toole was about 5 years before my time.
While Maloney’s achilles (April 16, 1970, twelfth game of the season) may well have been the death knell for his career, he threw with considerable pain throughout his career.
Smoke Gullett had many different injuries and sicknesses through his time with the Reds. The most significant was a broken thumb in what was his best season (75). He could have won 25 games that season. He also suffered from hepatitis throughout the 1972 season and he wasn’t completely recovered at the beginning of the 73 season.
Nolan, I cannot recall the details, but when he came back after two seasons on the DL, he was a different pitcher (not a thrower as he had been earlier).
Wayne Simpson…in my opinion Sparky Anderson evolved into Captain Hook after having ridden Simpson hard in 1970. After having thrown 162 innings in 1969 AND a 151 innings in the Puerto Rican Winter League, the kid threw 9, 7, 9, 6, 7, 9, 6, 7, 8, 5, 7, 9, 9, 6, 9, 8, 9, 9, 2+, 5+, 8, 5, 7+, 3 innings (=176 through July 1970). The 2+ was July 9 when he gave up 9 runs (4 earned, errors by Doggy and Tommy Helms). The 3 innings on July 31 was when he blew out his rotater cuff. I have never seen any stats re. number of pitches thrown, but he had 81 walks and 119 strike-outs in that short 1970 season, so there must’ve been many pitches.
As far as Cap’n Hook – did you ever see him allow Billingham or the others go 9 innings as often as he did Wayne Simpson? I can’t recall it. (In his 4 April starts, Simpson gave up 6 hits, 4 runs (2 earned). I turned 10 years old during the 1970 World Series, so I’ve always been enamored with the Simpson story. Here are a couple links (if I may), telling his story:
https://www.nytimes.com/1981/07/07/sports/wayne-simpson-a-price-for-persistence.html
https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/wayne-simpson/
Ages at end of career:
Gullett 27
Simpson 28
Nolan 29
O’Toole 30
Maloney 31
End of May, early June should see a Louisville starting staff with Burns, Lowder, Petty and hopefully Acuna and Franco joining them. Looks to be a very good support group to Greene, Lodolo, Martinez, Singer and Abbott. Martinez for prospects at the deadline with whoever is pitching better between Burns and Lowder to the Reds starting rotation is my guess as the earliest Burns makes it to the Reds. If there are any injuries to the Reds starting rotation, he may make his debut earlier.
Reds only trade Martinez at the deadline if they’re under .500. Hopefully the team is competing.
There is no such thing as having too many starting pitchers. When burns is ready he’ll get his shot. Not sure rushing him when he’s not ready (e.g. petty at the moment) is necessarily helpful to anyone.
It’s a shame the Reds don’t have a young hitter that close to the ML level who is doing as well. They arguably could use a solid hitter more than more pitching. Maybe Stewart is the closest?
That’s why I was all for Caglione or Condon to a lesser extent. As good as Burns is and he is fantastic, Reds don’t really need him. On the other hand a middle of the order bat could take this team to the playoffs.
And Caglione may be elevated to the bigs this year due to weakness of the Royals outfield
Yes and protecting their all star shortstop in the lineup for years to come. Sounds like something that would have been extremely beneficial for Reds.
Condon was the consensus top available hitting choice, but he’s off to a very slow start.
Stewart with several hits last night.
Seems like a very good hitter but is he the answer to the big middle of the order hitter Reds have missed for a few years?
2 homeruns this year
22 homeruns pro career (4 seasons)
Doesn’t seem to be a power hitter, although a fairly big guy. I’d take just a hitter. Power will come.
Isn’t that what we thought about Sean Casey?
At this point in time I’d take Sean Casey for sure. Maybe not so much back then but different set of circumstances now.
Raw power seems to be guys like Hinds who may or may not cut it. I don’t think anyone else is particularly close.
@LDS>>> If you haven’t seen it yet, they were working out Hinds at 1b this afternoon.
https://twitter.com/CBoxSports/status/1923448978240152036
Another poster called it an “extensive workout”.
Recall that Hinds played 3b previously.
That is really interesting but the first thought that comes to my mind is why would the guy with the best arm on the current roster minus EDLC play 1B. If it happens I’m sure Tito has a good reason and I’ll just be happy he’s getting a chance to play. lol He’s not there tonight however.
Hinds is also one of the fastest players on the team, which is useful in the outfield.
I know Benson made some nice plays in CF but out of all the outfielders to me he seems like the most natural fit at 1st base going forward. I especially like his left handed throwing which is a plus for defense at 1st.
It will be interesting to find out why they’re doing it. Maybe it’s just to make him more versatile. Maybe there’s a roster move coming or trade we don’t know about.
@Melvin>>> My first though about Hinds working out at 1b was how bad must they think Joe is there, Since, Joe and Steer have almost an identical number of MLB 1b appearances, in the keep it simple world, wouldn’t a person play Joe at 1b and Hinds at RF if they wanted to give Steer a day off or play him in LF to get Hinds and Joe both into lineup with him versus LHP???
Another view would be that Hinds could be a “super sub” candidate if he played all 4 corners plus CF. It might be a way to get him 3-4 starts a week rippling him through off days for regulars at those spots.
Marte will be 1B one day. Steer could be traded this season. If it turns out that Greene will be out long term, perhaps he would net a guy like Ragans. KC seems to think they have more than enough starters but need bats.
everything seems to point that Chase Burns could reach the Reds rotation only if many injuries arise or the Reds are sellers at the trade dead line… But while the team is fighting or contending for a wild card spot and the starters stay healthy I think the probability is low for this year having Burns among the starting five…he has to jump over Lowder and Petty on Reds starting pitching depth as the things stand now…
That’s what I thought LAST YEAR about Rhett Lowder, yet he did make it up to the Majors because a bunch of guys broke down in August.
Who can tell? My crystal ball is done busted right now.
Watching Burns and the inability of AA hitters to compete against him, more than once now, my impression is that he is more akin to EDLC than other current Reds or minor leaguers. Meaning, he’ll continue his ascent to the ML’s as quickly as he can, that, yes, they’ll monitor his pitch counts and let him build innings, but they won’t have much choice but to let him develop at the major league level. A point is coming where there just won’t be much to gain at AAA, and that point could get here really soon.
Not a knock on Burns. Great pitching prospect but Caglianone so far is also making a mockery of AA. 2nd in the league in average, ops, and homeruns. He would undoubtedly be the best cleanup hitter on the Reds TODAY which is 10x more valuable than having a great pitching prospect on team with possibly 7-8 quality starters.
I think, and hope, that the Reds are hoping Petty has a good enough start Saturday that they can trade him plus somebody else to the White Sox for Robert.
I hope not. If Reds trade young pitching for hitting i prefer Lodolo just two years away from free agency after this year. Would hate to see them trade away six years of Petty who has the best stuff in the organization outside of Greene and Burns.
I think I’d want more back for Petty, a young guy with lots of control, like Mayo or Jung.
I like Burns debuting later this season in the 2-3 inning role out of the pen or as an opener. That keeps any single pitch count down, and lessens the total ip for the season.
As for the future, while the general practice is to trade like for like (pitching for pitching/hitting for hitting), and while it’s generally good practice to stockpile pitching, the Reds are in the unusual position of getting close to trading pitching for hitting. And, pitching prospects for MLB, or near MLB level, hitting.
So many mention Martinez, but as rental he’d only likely return a rental bat – and they can get a rental bat for something other than Martinez. And while he’s performing very well, he’s also probably right at market value, and will probably be available to return to the Reds again.
Ergo – their much more valuable trade chips are the MiLB/young pitchers – pick one, and add a lesser value, and make the deal for a similar talent/prospect at the plate. Robert is still out there, but if they get a rental bat for this season they could focus longer term with a trade.
Pretty much disagree with half of what you stated. The general practice is to trade like for like is completely false. There have been literally hundreds of pitching for hitting trades, which makes sense because so many teams have an imbalanced roster like the Reds for example. Also the statement that a rental will only bring back a rental. Did you miss the last twenty years of trade deadlines? Rentals always bring back prospects and young players.
Well my thought is that Lodolo is and has been a bit of a disappointment however he might not be to another team and maybe we can land a talented outfielder for him in some type of deal. I’m for bringing up Burns in a month or so.
Totally agree on Lodolo. He’s done nothing so far but still considered a young and talented pitcher around baseball that many teams (Baltimore) could use. But looking at the Reds in 2027, the rotation could have Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, Burns, Lowder, Petty, Williamson, Aguiar, and Serwinowski possibly, with Lodolo reaching free agency that year. Might as well unload him since A)they don’t need him B)he’s the closest to leaving C)He’s going to start making some money in arbitration and they can use that money for offense.
Jim, let’s not forget “Cool” Billy McCool who, I believe, was 19 when the Reds brought him up.
I think Lodolo is a little unproven overall, and Singer I see more as like a #5 in the rotation. I think the future is probably more leading towards Lowder, Burns, in the rotation next year. But for this year, Burns looks like he could be quite the weapon out of the bullen. He looks like he has great stuff overall.
I’d like to see the Reds try a 6-man rotation with Burns this year. Of course that reduces the bullpen by one. You need to count on SPs going a minimum of 6 innings to reduce bullpen workload. Another way to reduce the bullpen impact is to something that used to be more common. When a SP is due for his between starts bullpen session, have him do it around the 6th inning of a game so that he can come in to pitch to 3 or 4 batters when needed.
A couple of people have mentioned “Cool Billy” who was a hero of mine. He and I were the same age, and he was from Dearborn County Indiana like me. His family ran McCool pharmacy in Lawrenceburg.