To say that it’s been a poor start to the season for Jeimer Candelario would be an understatement. The infielder has nine hits in 21 games. He’s hitting .118, has a .207 on-base percentage, and he’s slugging .224. Among qualified hitters he’s the worst in baseball with a 17 wRC+.
There are a lot of red flags in the underlying data, too. His strikeout rate is higher than it’s ever been, and by a lot. His 31% strikeout rate is up from 24.6% last season – which was the highest it’s been since 2019. The power output is down significantly, too. His isolated power (SLG-AVG) sits at .105 currently. It’s never been remotely close to that low before and was at .204 last year and .220 the year before that. His previous low was .145 back in 2022.
His average exit velocity is well below the league average. As is just about every other batted-ball metric you’re going to find. His bat speed is at 69.4 MPH. That’s actually higher than last year’s 68.4 MPH, but it’s not been all that helpful so far.
There are two things in his offensive profile that may suggest he could get things going in the right direction – at least a little bit. Candelario’s BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is currently .143. Only two other players among the 167 qualified hitters this season have a lower BABIP than that. The league average BABIP this season is .285. While hitters do tend to have more control over their BABIP output than pitchers do, a .143 mark being a “skill level” would suggest that Candelario is likely equivalent to a high school hitter facing big league pitching and that just doesn’t seem like it’s the case. He’s been unlucky. That isn’t to say he hasn’t also been bad – he has. But he’s also been unlucky and when the two get coupled together you get a 17 wRC+.
The other thing that could be helpful is that he’s walking often. His current 10.5% walk rate is nearly double the rate he had last year, and it’s in line with the best walk rate he’s ever had in a full season.
If he continues to walk often and his BABIP rebounds some, it could get him moving in the right direction. To turn into a league average hitter, he’s going to need more than just those two things, though. Cutting back on the strikeouts and finding more power will also have to happen.
If Candelario struggling to hit were just a 4-week blip on the radar to start the year there could be more time to preach patience. But it’s been a lot longer than that.
On June 21st of 2024 he hit two home runs against the Boston Red Sox. He finished that day with a .255/.309/.502 triple-slash line. That’s not great, but it certainly could fall into the “good” category. Slugging heavy, but good. In the 45 games he played that followed that day he hit .182/.233/.318. He still wasn’t walking, his strikeout rate started to climb, his power disappeared, and his average plummeted.
Jeimer Candelario’s 3-week heater ended that day. From June 1st through the 21st he hit .347/.351/.736 with 12 extra-base hits. If we remove that three week stretch from his time with the Cincinnati Reds, he’s hit .186/.254/.341 in his other 476 plate appearances. That’s a .595 OPS for anyone trying to do the math at home but has a headache. If he were a gold glove caliber shortstop it would be a problem to run him out there every day. But he’s a corner infielder/designated hitter who can’t hit. Or at least hasn’t shown he can hit for over a year now, outside of one 3-week stretch last summer.
Cincinnati still owes him over $30,000,000 between this season, next season, and the $3,000,000 buyout for the 2027 season. That’s a lot of money for them to eat, but it’s a sunk cost and they have to pay it unless he decides to retire. So the question becomes how much longer can you run him out there every day, or even keep him on the roster at all, if he doesn’t turn things around in a big way, and quickly? Whether we all agree with the offseason roster moves or not, this organization didn’t go out and bring in the players they did and Terry Francona to not try and compete. And it’s real difficult to compete with a corner infielder/designated hitter who can’t hit.
He sure is looking like Mike Moustakas 2.0 to me. If he don’t get it going in the next month or so you have to get rid of him. He is pretty much adding nothing to the team.
You said it, Mous all other again. How can this org get the last 2 BIG MOVES so wrong just blows my mind. Maybe it’s because, unlike other orgs, since it’s so rare here, these take on outsize importance in the fan’s eyes. Regardless, a big (and if I recall widely panned, or at least questioned) swing and miss, from a FO that can’t afford it.
It’s pretty simple, actually. They weren’t actually BIG MOVES. The Reds signed two guys who were mediocre, mid-level free agents and they haven’t worked out.
Yep, big moves for the Reds but for mediocre players who were mid-level FAs like Doug said that have not worked out. It’s too bad really.
We can all disagree with the Moustakas signing, but I’m not sure you can just chalk it up as a typical Reds signing of a mediocre player. Candy, Absolutely. Moose had just come off an average of 30+ HR’s over the prior 3 seasons. Those numbers had they continued should have really climbed in GABP. Was it a horrible signing? Absolutely, but passing it off as a mediocre move is a bit disingenuous IMO.
Three terrible signings, Candy, Moose and Shogo.
Maybe some team out there will be interested if the Reds eat most of the contract? Could allow us to carry 3 catchers?
Candelario averaged 115 OPS+ in the 4 years (averaged) before he signed with the Reds.
He was 87 OPS+ last year and is currently OPS+ 7 (not a typo. Seven.)
He may be done. He may be injured. He should not be in the starting lineup.
To pile onto @Oldtimer, the Reds signed Moustakas following five consecutive seasons with an OPS+ 107 or higher, including three all-star appearances, one of which was the year prior to the Reds signing him.
Akiyama’s contract was three years totalling at $20M.
Go take a look at the outfielders many here begged the Reds to sign or trade for over the offseason. I don’t like the CBA, but none of these contracts seems unreasonable based on the Reds outlay and the player’s potential AT signing.
I disagree with Doug here. Candy was highly sought after at the trade deadline the previous season, as he was doing well with Washington, and he was talked up during the offseason. People were surprised when the Reds signed him, as they were when the Reds signed Castellanos and Moose. Candy is no 30 million dollar man, but it was a big signing.
“So the question becomes how much longer can you run him out there every day, or even keep him on the roster at all, if he doesn’t turn things around in a big way, and quickly?” Yep, that’s the question.
100%
The Cowboy keeps calling for the Miami Valley Gaming woman to get that lucky buckeye in her purse — maybe he’s on to something?
What scouting occurs before signing a high $ FA target? I’d have to think extensive background work is done before shelling out millions. The Reds are 0-2 with Moose & Jeimer. I’ve got no inside access, so can’t opinionate on how the Reds have failed so spectacularly on these 2 high dollar FA signings. Maybe it’s bad luck, maybe it’s injuries, maybe it’s…?
A week or two back someone suggested that NK is good at developing young talent but not so adept at evaluating FAs. It’s baffling and painful given the pricey magnitude of the outcome.
Personally, I’d prefer extending the current core over fishing in the over-priced FA pool. At least they’re a known quantity – health, approach, strengths, etc.
Well, I don’t know how much of the evaluating Kroll does. Maybe, the advanced scouts have a bigger input into this. But I have thought for years the Reds scouting was over rated. Last outfielder selected that amounted to anything ? Jay Bruce ? The Reds have done pretty well on pitching selection, not sure about the rest. I think that when they purged payroll three years back, that the return is so so.
See above at Doug’s comment. These aren’t high dollar signings.
Not for a lot of teams but for the Reds who are 3 to 5 highest paid players
For the Reds they are high dollar.He is currently the 2nd highest paid player on the team after Martinez.
For a team, the Reds, that are 30-40 million dollars last time I checked away from ranking just in the middle of MLB team salaries and said they spent every penny they could this year, 30 million over next two years is a whole lotta money. Heck this might even tighten the Reds purse strings even more and ownership might have told Krall the next time you sign someone for this kind of money you better be darn sure as you can be he does not turn out to be a bust.
Just because they are high dollar to the Reds, it doesn’t make them a star player. If the Reds highest paid player makes 15 million, that doesn’t mean squat. You’d hope that he would measure up to other 15 million dollar players. Unfortunately, at this point, he is not.
But don’t think for a minute that he should be hitting 40 HRs/125 RBIs, just because he’s the Red’s highest paid player.
Whatever you want to label it whether it’s high dollar or mid range, it’s still a complete waste of money that could be spent on good baseball players.
See if someone will give you a bucket of batting practice balls for him, and eat 90% of contract or just release him
If Candelario were a free agent right now, it would be hard for him to get a ML deal at league minimum. So, based on that, just getting a team to eat just 2% of his remaining contract might prove difficult. Reds are stuck in a tough spot unless he starts performing.
Both were known bad contracts to a lot of at their signings.
Moose was over 30 and trying to become a 2nd basemen. Lot of you posted at the signing that his contract wouldn’t age well.
JC. Best previous contract was for 1 yr at 5 million. Been cut during final year of Arb by Detroit. Didn’t play well for Cubs after they traded for him. They didn’t attempt to resign him according to reports.
He had OPS+ of 108 in 41 games with the Cubs, so he was better than average. He only got 15 million per year, so not superstar money. They hoped the ball park might help his numbers. It was a fair contract for what they were expecting.
The problem with the signing wasn’t just the dollar amount. It was making significant investment in a career average hitter who just had a good year right before free agency and was obviously going to become a roadblock to the good young infielders already in the organization. It just never made any sense.
Presuming the Reds have already explored swapping bad contracts or other deals that might mitigate their loss on Candelario, they can always take the nuclear option of DFAing him, but outrighting him to the minors instead of releasing him.
This would put the ball in Candelario’s court. He could accept the assignment and continue to draw his pay or declare free agency and forfeit his remaining contract pay.
My guess he would at least initially accept the assignment. If he found some remnants of his former self in the minors, the Reds could bring him back or be able to make a mitigating deal.
The missed bad contract deal was (and perhaps is) with the White Sox. We’ve all discussed it, though almost all objected to Benintendi, and many to Robert. It may still be there to be had but for the prospects required and the $$$ they’d have to eat. If nothing else, it aligned with the Reds continuing OF needs.
There may be others, likely among pitchers out with TJ recovery on 2 year deals – hard to see the Reds going for that – no chance of performance while recovering.
Robert is off to a terrible start but at least, as far as I know, is healthy and in his prime. He could still be had in the right kind of deal. Not for what the White Sox were asking for earlier for sure.
Yes Melvin – nobody knew, though as I recall the Reds were reportedly the leading candidate, and the price in prospects was excessive and unrealistic. What we also don’t know is if any current Reds were even proposed or was it essentially all prospects.
Still, the Sox continue to scrape the bottom, so should be most open to a wide variety of offers (prospects/cash/veterans), and each week reduces the respective prices and costs. It’s not like they’re looking for a very specific player or slot to fill.
Recall that the Dodgers took Homer Bailey’s contract for Matt Kemp’s despite Bailey having more outstanding money due than Kemp because Bailey’s CBT basis was significantly lower than Kemp’s. A similar situation could be the Reds’ best chance to lower their losses on the Candelario contract.
Dodgers already made an offer for Robert Jr. As I recall WS said they would revisit it a little down the road. Probably to see if he was healthy and playing well. Don’t know what the WS will get for him now but doubt given what they are experiencing with Candelario the Reds are going to pay a high risk player 20 million per year on top of whatever prospect capital it would require.
I’m not sure about how that works Jim. I mean when it comes to trying to outright Candy to the minors. I think, per the CBA, if the Reds DFA Candy and instead of releasing him, decide to outright him to AAA, Candy can refuse the assignment and still collect his pay. I don’t think that tenured MLB players forfeit their salary if they refuse an assignment to the minors. Something to research perhaps when I get some time.
@Jim, the Reds cannot outright Candelario to avoid paying part of his contract as he has sufficient service time to decline the assignment and become a free agent.
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/outright-waivers
See my references to the CBA below. Because Cadelario is a 5+ year player>> Yes, he can refuse the assignment, but do so without electing free agency (and be paid). However, he also can elect free agency (and not get paid).
That’s my read of the CBA
https://www.mlbplayers.com/cba
Section XIX.2.a-c, starting on page 94 of the CBA’s internal page numbering addresses this situation.
“Termination Pay” is covered on pages 35-36. It applies to players tendered contract (1-year contracts) who were under team control when tendered. Free agent contracts are fully guaranteed in MLB. It’s a little tricky to see this in the CBA itself, but this all falls under “Article VI, Salaries.” A simplified explanation is in the glossary posting I provided above.
BK>> A guy who has not reached the 5 year level cannot technically *refuse* an outright assignment, but he can elect to become an FA if he has been previously outrighted and does forfeit his remaining salary if he does so. That’s the confusing part to me.
By and large, these guys are pre-arbitration and on 1 year split, i.e. 2 way deals. At MLB, they are making somewhere between the minimum ($740K in 2025) and $1m.
Even with the unionization of MiLB, unless they have a greater than typical MiLB salary written into their split contract (like Wynns $300K in 2024), their MiLB salary is going to be in the $125K-135K as opposed to the $35.8K minimum for AAA guys on a straight 1 way MiLB contract.
“if the player has five or more full years of major league service, he must consent to be assigned to the minors. If the player withholds consent, the team must either release him or keep him on the major league roster. In either case, the player must continue to be paid under the terms of his contract”
Releasing him makes him a free agent, and he will still be paid according to the terms of his original contract.
So, there is no viable way to assign Candelario to minors. However, they could DL him and buy a little bit of time in minors that way.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Designated_for_assignment#:~:text=Also%2C%20if%20the%20player%20has,the%20terms%20of%20his%20contract.
I was wondering when this article would come. It was inevitable unfortunately. The Reds are supposed to be in a “win now” mode. I don’t see how they can keep him on the roster much longer. He’s very bad on offense AND defense.
100%
I too was anticipating this article. I’m glad we’re all openly and officially talking about it now.
I had hoped for a bad contract swap with someone, probably for an OF’er this offseason. But alas it didn’t come to fruition. Cincinnati probably just needs to stop signing average players over 30 to FA contracts longer than 1 season. It’s not been working out well for them, Moose, Akiyama, Candelario….
They did pretty good with Castellanos, though.
He wasn’t over 30. He played his 28 and 29 year old seasons in Cincinnati.
At least one All Star year with Winker. The word was that he and his family liked Cincinnati but the money was not there so he went to Philadelphia.
So who do they sign for FA then? Most quality players want more than 1 year on a contract.
They probably shouldn’t often with guys over 30. Not without mutual options/buy outs built in. Unless they’re going to dip their toes into the higher caliber of player but they’re never going to win a bidding war. Develop from the minors and trade from surplus to fill needs.
I think keeping Candelario on this really poor performance wll depend whether the Reds offense could improve to be average at least. While the other Reds hitters can pick up Candelario the Reds will keep him more time but if the lineup continues struggling often a FO decision would be inminent about moving on Candelario
If we really want out from under Candy,we could try to package him with some player of value, get a young lottery ticket prospect back and maybe cut our losses to a degree. Perhaps one of our many young arms to a team hurting for arms right now, with Candy as a sidecar. 30 million over 21 months is huge for us, not as big a deal for other teams. This is what win now means. Put your best 26 out there. Failing in that scenario, take the hit. We owe Greene and Trevino next year that’s it, beyond Candalario. We sink or swim with Steer, CES, Marte and Lux at 1st, 3rd and DH, and may be Stephenson.
This is probably what the Reds will have to do. But one missed 15 million dollar player shouldn’t cripple a team like the Reds are acting like. If they ever want to be a serious team they need to find a way to have at least a middle of the MLB payroll.
Nah. Why give up 6 years of an Arroyo or Lowder just to save some money that has already been budgeted? Arroyo’s contract rights are worth more than the burden of Candelario’s contract. The DFA route makes much more sense to me. They just turn him into the 26th guy on the roster, if they haven’t already. Once Stephenson is back, I don’t see where the guy gets any ABs, anyway.
They need to find an injury, then send him to AAA for rehab to see if he can find his swing.
Candelario to me just does not look very strong. He isn’t overweight or out of shape; he instead looks like an accountant who plays a little pick-up basketball. If he hasn’t learned to get lean and mean by now, he never will.
I posted this in the game thread the other day but just for perspective on the signing at the time, mlbtraderumors rated Candy as the 5th best offensive free agent heading into the 2023-2024 off-season.
The move made little sense position wise at the time and has turned out terrible, but it wasn’t like he was a complete bum heading into that off-season.
Also as many others have pointed out, this was not a “big” signing to most teams. Many other teams sign these mid level veteran players to these contracts every year and some work and some don’t. Unfortunately, we have been conditioned that anything over 3 million a year is big signing and that is just not true at all.
This is absolutely correct – it’s a pretty big deal for the Reds (but nothing likethe Votto/Bailey deals) and it’s still limited enough that it should not be crippling at all – perhaps bad for a month or two, but no cause to let it drag thru the season.
Also worth keeing in mind that for the $10M + deals they’ve missed on, there are plenty of $1-5M where they hit – just going back a while to Straily/Simon/Drury/Naquin etc.. It would be interesting to check and see if the Simon-Eugenio deal alone got enough WAR to offset Moose and Candy by itself.
Absolutely correct x 2
It is still rather early in the season but when I look at the data that Doug provided, going back to last June, then add in my own research, it isn’t pretty. I would not want to be in the Reds front-office right now, as the ownership group isn’t going to be happy about the prospect of paying $30-million over the next couple years for a guy NOT to play for them. That’s about where they are at however.
Based on his peripherals, and the fact that this goes back almost a year, I have to think that his time to break out of it is growing short. If I was a special assistant and Krall and the GM asked my opinion, I’d say that it is up to Francona to decide how much, or how little to play him over the next 6 weeks or so. If the calendar turns to June however and Candy isn’t showing strong signs of digging out of this, even if he isn’t playing a lot, I think there is little else to do but DFA him.
I actually like Candy. I couldn’t figure out why exactly the Reds signed him because I thought they had more pressing needs, but I thought he’d at least be a marginally good hitter with mediocre fielding. A ‘solid’ placeholder until one of the young guys was ready. Too bad it hasn’t worked out that way.
I am not sure as to OhioJim’s comment above. I think, per the CBA, if the Reds DFA Candy and instead of releasing him, decide to outright him to AAA, Candy can refuse the assignment and still collect his pay. I don’t think that tenured MLB players forfeit their salary if they refuse an assignment to the minors. Something to research perhaps when I get some time.
I shall look into this LW 😉
***starting on page 94 of the CBA internal page #’s***
Section XIX.2 of the CBA says ” (2) (a)?The contract of a Player with *five or more years of Major League service*, not including service while on the Military List (or seven or more years of Major League service, including service while on the Military List), shall not be assigned otherwise than to another Major League Club, without the Player’s written consent.”
2(b) stipulates the procedure for the player to accept or refuse the assignment and says:
(The team must inform) “the player that he may (i) consent to the assignment, (ii) refuse the assignment or (iii) elect to become a free agent”
2(c) says that if the player elects free agency, he is immediately free to negotiate with other teams and “shall not be entitled to receive termination pay”.
****************
So, what happens if the (5 year vested) player refuses the assignment and doesn’t select free agency? It doesn’t say here that I could find. My guess would be he stays with the team (and gets paid) or is unconditionally released and gets paid.
Good catch by the old catcher, LW 😉
So, if I read JW’s quote correctly the Reds can get rid of him by having him enlist in the U. S. Marine Corps!?
So, if I read JW’s quote correctly the Reds can get rid of him by having him enlist in the U. S. Marine Corps!?
I would be fine with this approach but I wouldn’t go much further than the start of June. Once Stephenson returns from the IL, I think the Reds have 12 players earning their roster spots.
1. Friedl, CF
2. McLain, 2B
3. EDLC, SS
4. Hays, LF
5. Lux, DH
6. Stephenson, C
7. Fraley, RF
8. Marte, 3B
9. Trevino, backup C
10. Dunn, RH platoon partner to Fraley and backup CF
11. Espinal, RH platoon partner to Lux and backup SS
12. Wynns, he’s earned an extended look and could play 1B
That leaves CES, Steer, and Candelario fighting for one spot while not playing much as of today. Steer appears to be coming around but can be optioned.
Cutting Candelario would be disappointing, but it’s kind of a good problem that the rest of the position player roster has become pretty competitive.
Wynns was 4-15 on the season, before having two great games. He’s been very good defensively.
They should not keep 3 catchers on the roster, premised on a 2-game hot streak by a 34-year-old who entered the season with a career WAR of 0.7.
These things tend to work out. Maybe Stephenson will have a setback, and maybe either Wynns or Trevino gets nicked up in the next week. If they lose him, they lose him. They do have the option to negotiating a bonus to accept going to Louisville.
@OBE. Wynns is definitely in the small sample size domain, but he also hit well last year. I’m not talking about keeping him around forever, but I would continue to work him into the lineup (perhaps at 1B, given his limited experience there, or as a DH) while others heal or get their timing straightened out. This makes sense, as 1B and DH have been the weakest lineup spots for the Reds.
As a side note he is a big liability in the field. He is not the lousiest fielder on the team
Meant to say he is the lousiest
Have you seen Marte play?
I think the potential’s still there for him to rebound and become league average. I mean, 10 days ago folks were calling Fraley washed. Candy is still walking and he’s struck a few balls pretty well the last couple games which predicated Fraley’s (and Friedl for that matter) breakout.
As for short term solutions, aside from him playing twice a week, a mystery injury and IL stint could be of use so he can work things out on a rehab assignment in Louisville away from the bright lights. The odds of him filing a grievance are pretty slim imo, and that’s a risk I’d be willing to take.
I’m going to take the hit for his poor performance.
My once per year trip to Cincy last year was to see them play the Red Sox. I saw the 2 HR game Doug mentioned. When he came up a 3rd time, our section behind home plate, cheered and held 3 fingers up, as he smiled back at us.
All downhill since. 🙁
At the time, there were many here who thought it was a terrible signing, except of course for those who always insist that Nick Krall is somehow playing three dimensional chess while the other GMs are playing checkers. It was the same thing with the David Bell extension.
The truth is if so many here could see it was a mistake, why couldn’t Nick Krall see it?
Regardless, the Reds are likely stuck with Candy for duration of that god awful contract. Maybe the Reds will bite the bullet and eat his contract like they did with the last year of the Moustakis deal, but I don’t see it happening until next Spring.
In the meantime, I suppose Candy will be spending most of the time either on the bench or on the IL. Maybe starting one or two games a week.
Maybe, we will get lucky and all of Candy’s doubles will magically turn into home runs as we were promised.
While I agree it’s not an expensive contract by MLB standards. It is an expensive contract for the Cincinnati Reds.
Dilemma indeed … +100,000 for the article, Doug!
I have no answers. My observations and opinions align with most of you on RLN. How much can/will Tito push back against playing him even though he’s making what our Reds consider “top dollar”?
I guess we stay tuned (as we would anyway).
I’m not sure what the answer is. No, Candelario is producing and I was hoping Krall moved him this last off season. The problem is that CES is on the IL and hasn’t done much since ST a couple of years ago. Steer hasn’t been hitting and probably needed some IL time. McLain is back but not hitting much either. Marte is ripping the cover off the ball, but is it real and sustainable? Who in AAA is ready to plug IF slots or OF slots that would allow Lux to play full time in the IF? The Reds roster looks pretty thin over all. Depth signings like Espinal can’t become the everyday answer. And packaging Candelario with good prospects to dump his salary seems strategically dumb unless it returned a highly consequential regular player or a AAA ready to move up. Can’t see that happening,
All true, but another take on the issue is he is the biggest roster problem now, but they really have two holes on the roster – the other regular OFer.
Tito can probably keep them near .500 for a while, and probably do pretty well with only one hole in the lineup, but, yes, that’s where the “thin” issue arises. They cannot let this go past mid-season. I still expect a big deal (for the Reds) at the break, which would fill one hole, but if they really want to do more than squeak into the last WC spot, they need to fix both holes. They need Fraley and Espinal to be the two primary backups – IF/OF, but they’re not there yet.
I agree about Frailey and Espinal. They both seem to do quite well as backup players but not as starters.
As for a big deal at the Trade deadline I have my doubts. Krall hasn’t really ever gone out at the deadline to get a big-time bat or pitcher. Usually, his trades involve supplemental pieces that in the long run could help the team, but they are not going to be players who make the team a big-time contender instantly.
I also don’t think the Reds have a lot of room to add more payroll based on what happened this offseason and various reports throughout the spring of where the team payroll sits. I would be shocked if the Reds added more than 8 to 10 million during the deadline.
Good question and article. Perhaps Candy is hurt and has a strained oblique, right? So send him to the IR for a week or two. The time off will hopefully get his mind straight and back ready to play. Then send him off for a rehab assignment to get right. . I am not sure sending him out day after day right now is going to help him get back on track. Being in a slump is one thing but Candy is off the road and stuck in a ditch.
Krall has made some very poor signings in the last couple of years if anybody else did that they’d be fired..One of the biggest was resigning Nick Martinez when we had young picture prospects coming up basically took all the money when we could have signed a power hitter outfielder 21 million a year was ridiculous when we had extra after Votto wasn’t resigned..
.
I am not ready to dismiss Nick Martinez at this point. It’s still early. Plenty of pitchers have a first month or so …meh….and then get in a groove.
Candelario, by comparison, has just been lousy, except for (literally) a few weeks in June of 2024. A guy that had a +107 OPS for the 3 years prior to signing with Cincy, and now has (drum roll!) and OPS of….7 (SEVEN!) at this point in time.
The guy is either injured or just done, as in he just has lost it.
If it was SOLEY up to Francona, he probably wouldn’t play much AT ALL the rest of the season. I don’t think Terry will take much direction on who to play from the Front Office, but he is also conscious of what Candelario is worth, and will still give him some more chances. I would have Candelario have a COMPLETE physical, as well as an eye exam (Votto’s eyes gave him trouble in the last year in AAA and got contacts). Maybe there is something really wrong with him.
I really want Candelario to succeed. At this time he has to sit the bench and PH every now and . He can’t be in the starting lineup until he improves.
The ownership and the mindset has to change. Instead of looking for 1-2 3 WAR players, we need to go for one 5 WAR player. Put Matt Chapman on this team this past winter and we’re golden. His numbers would play way up in GABP and his glove speaks for itself.
I just read that Wynne was outrighted to Louisville. After he threw 3 innings the other day, I thought he was optioned to make room for Lodolo being reinstated. Apparently, he was waived and passed through waivers. Pretty sneaky by the Reds. It opens up a spot on the 40 man roster to make it 39 again.
I guess it will go to Miley when he’s ready
Well, we will see when Miley starts a rehab assignment at AAA Louisville, which I would expect is coming soon. He may be traveling with the Reds and throwing on the side.
Randy Wynn is a funny guy. He doesn’t throw that hard, but has about six pitches he throws, so he never throws the same thing twice in a row.
Maybe it is his time now. He really is a good guy for sticking it out in the Minors for years, hoping to really get a chance. You have to respect what a big heart he has.
After his 9 H 6 ER stint in something like 2 – 3 IP at SINGLE A Dayton, I’m not so sure.
@ Mitch
I was not aware of his pitching in Dayton until your comment. I looked it up and ….WOW! Was he bad in 2.1 innings.
So maybe Wade Miley is not going to be an answer at all. Maybe Miley is done. I give him 3-4 weeks and see where he is. Maybe by the end of May.
Once again the Reds are off, no Pacer playoff game, and I was going to watch the Bats and Lookouts tonight but….they’ve got bad weather…. again. hahaha Oh well. That’s alright. 🙂
I’m sitting over here in Dayton thinking the same, except my no playoff game is the CBJ fooling around and missing the postseason by 1 regulation win. The most bittersweet part is they won their last 6 games after frittering away an inside position with something like a 2-6-1 (just 5 of a possible 18 standing points) run ahead of the too late streak.
Bottom line…..it was one of the worst signings the Reds could have done. I said it was terrible the day they ammounced it. This is basically a Moose 2.0 situation. Cut the losses and move on. Fire whover it was that pushed for this deal to happen to begin with.
I liked the Candelario signing when they signed him. I thought GABP would help his offensive numbers even if he was just average. This year I thought maybe he’d bounce back, as he did hit 20 HRs even having a bad year last year.
But he has been so had I think they have to seriously think of letting him go. It’d be a tough pill to swallow for Krall and the organization. It’d show they are admitting they made a bad move, but also fans would actually respect Krall and company for letting him go if it showed they are doing everything they can to make this current team better.
I’d understand them giving Candelario a little more time, but even if he gets hot for a week or two he’s been so bad at the beginning of the last two seasons it’s hindered the Reds depending on him. His stats were never great in general but you wonder what has led him to being so bad overall. It’s one thing to start slow in a season, but these guys hitting. 120-150 through 25 games playing a lot makes you wonder how they are even in the Majors.
Good comment. The last paragraph is absolutely right. Just not a lot of good hitters around. The ones that can hit are on the coasts
I just dont know what else ownership can do? I mean Shogo, Candelario, Moose… these are the type of players available to the reds and they simply cannot hit major league hitting.
I remember as most recently as the 1990s the reds would sign veterans in their 30s that would give us good production. Bill Doran, Hal Morris, Billy Hatcher, Mark Lewis, Mariano Duncan, Bip Roberts just to name a few. Not allstar numbers but above average numbers at least. These guys now cant even break.200.
Pitching and defense is just too dominant now imo and it really hurts teams like the reds.
Only Bill Doran was over 30 when the Reds acquired him. Ron Gant (whom you did not mention) was 30.
I believe, of the players you listed, that only Doran and Duncan would meet your criteria .
Mario!!!!! Loved that guy. He was great as an infield backup. I even based my Spanish class name in high school off of him.
Most of those players were acquired in trades, not signed as FA. Morris, Duncan, and Hatcher were key players on the 1990 Reds. Doran was past his prime as a Red.
The organization is not good at signing FA’s, period. They may be able to go for low risk reclamation projects like Hays and maybe Miley, but that’s it, too many failures (Candy, Moose, Akiyama, Myers).
I forgot about Myers although that was for a “measly” $7.5M. haha
Dave Parker remains the best FA ever signed by the Reds back in December 1983.
Howsam hated FA but he signed the best one ever for the Reds. Howsam had come back to fix the mess created by Dick Wagner.
Sunken cost. Sunken cost. Sunken cost .
They need to get that in their head. It doesn’t matter now. Gotta play to win.
I agree. The idea that they have to keep him because they’re paying lots of money (comparatively) makes no sense unless they are convinced that he’ll return to being the hitter who could put out 60+ hits in a season. Even if they have already conceded that they aren’t playing for anything this year, they could use his roster spot to give a younger player a chance to develop.
That or just bench him. You’d probably have better luck with him in a pinch hit situation than Blake Dunn or Jacob Hurbotuise.
60+ extra-base hits in a season.
Who do you get to replace Candy? An OFer? If he can be snuck into a trade with a tanking team, maybe. Marte would seem the heir apparent, but I’d like to see some sustained performance from him first.
I think maybe when TS gets back from rehab that’s the Candelario moment. It would suck to eat his salary, but continuing this futility with no changes would be worse.
We don’t have anyone to replace Candy. The AAA outfielders haven’t shown they can bat any better while on the Reds roster. We have 2 nice utility type players in AAA, but they are far from a guarantee that they will be an improvement over Candy.
Take his role down to a backup, I would limit his starts to roughly 50% to 60%. We not only owe him too much to just cut bait, but we also need the hitter he was before he came to Cincinnati.
I’d be willing to DFA him depending on where the Reds are, and how Candy is doing by the trade deadline.
In the meantime, we hope.
My guess is that if Ivan Johnson was on the 40 man roster, there’s a good chance he would have been up for a look by now. He has cooled a bit in the last week but still has a BA/OPS line of .323/.425/.532/.957 at AAA this year. Since being promoted to AAA last season in late July, his cumulative AAA BA/OPS line is .299/.379/.536/.915 in 240PAs.
Johnson is a 26 year old switch hitter who was the 114 overall pick in the 2019 draft. He has played infield (2B) in the past, but has been used almost exclusively as a corner OF (mostly LF) or DH at Louisville this season.
https://www.milb.com/player/ivan-johnson-671155
Agree with this MBS. But I also think DL could buy some time and perhaps give Candy some confidence with some rehab PAs in AAA. This should be done to open a spot for Stephenson, imo.
@All, That’s a doable plan.
It really stinks the Reds didn’t go after a big bat in the offseason. I like Hays, but I’d like the offseason a lot more if he wasn’t the biggest bat we signed.
When Hays started the season (it also coincided with McLains return) the offense really took off. Had we signed another bat, maybe it wouldn’t have started as slow as it did. We just have a razer’s edge depth on the offensive side.
We have some internal depth that might be available by midseason in Stewart, and Arroyo. Unfortunately, they don’t have a MLB track record of success like the players we could have signed in the offseason.
It’s hard being a Reds fan.
@MBS, in hindsight, which bat should the Reds have signed? The obvious hole was in the outfield. I don’t see a free agent outfielder outplaying Hays at this point?
I don’t disagree, but they have to have a legitimate reason to place him on the IL. MLB indicated a willingness to punish teams that place players on the IL with phantom injuries.
Re: It’s hard being a Reds fan
Reds have not had their starting catcher yet this year, yet they are 3rd in baseball in catcher fWAR thanks to nifty acquisitions of Trevino and wynns.
Hays has been good, Lux has been good, and Singer has been good.
Additionally, the relief pitchers acquired have been good overall.
Perhaps we look at it differently, but those of us who thought Krall had a good offsason have been plenty surprised that it is not only good, but great. It’s very hard for a front office to have that level of success.
Personally I think the reds are close to going on a run here. But that won’t stop the Krall naysayers from naysaying.
@BK, Decisions are not made in hindsight, but in the moment. The argument that free agent X, or Y hasn’t performed doesn’t excuse the organizations unwillingness to spend market value money on players to address obvious roster issues.
I think you misinterpreted what I said about Hays. I wanted him as well as another proven OF bat.
@All, I never dig on Krall, even when it seems warranted. That’s because I place the blame on ownership for lack of spending. It’s impossible to know what Krall would do with a bigger budget.
Krall is forced to find value in unlikely spots, and sometimes it’s Martinez (2024), and sometimes it’s Candelario.
If Krall had a bigger budget, he could sign premium players who carry less risk of failure.
A last point is even though I place more blame on Ownership than I do Krall, I place even more blame on the collective MLB ownership, and players. They all seem to enjoy these radically unbalanced organizations.
Until baseball decides to make a fair playing field, it’s going to remain hard on fans of small market teams.
@MBS
A bigger budget doesn’t always equate to success either. The two favorites last offseason from RLN posters were Roberts and Santander. Roberts has a negative 0.1 bWAR and Santander is negative 0.4.
Roberts would have cost significant prospect capital (such as Marte plus Lowder, for instance) and Santander came with a $92.5M guarantee. Both of those players would have set the team on a backward spiral with a significant drain on resource capital.
There’s a poster here (not you) that wanted the Reds to trade for Benintendi (2nd worst OF in baseball out of 63 qualified over the last 2 years per fangraphs) in order to get Roberts cheaper. That would have added $30M in payroll this year, not to mention $30M in sunk cost for Benintendi for future years, and would have resulted in a FAR worse team than we have currently, given that Benintendi would have seen significant playing time due to his contract.
So by taking no BIG splash actions last offseason, the Reds are far ahead of where they would be.
@MBS, thank you for the thoughtful response. The overwhelming consensus here was the Reds missed on adding a big bat in the offseason. Why? Because the offense lagged in 2024. Many questioned the QO to Martinez. Yet, the front office’s strategy seems to have been correct.
The Reds are 6th in runs scored at this point and twelfth in OPS. They are also tied for fifth in ERA, second in WHIP, and fourth in opponents OBA.
Early on, I advocated for Hays — given his kidney issues in 2024; he looked like someone for whom a good physical could determine whether he had moved past his 2024 problems. There were warning signs for just about every other OF option–warning signs that have manifested themselves early in the season. Hindsight can validate earlier concerns.
The Red’s problem in 2025 has been consistency, but there are data-driven reasons for optimism. They are not killing themselves on the basepaths like they did last year. First, they have the third best run-scoring percentage in the league. Pickoffs and outs on the basepaths are now just below league average–both were extremely poor last season. Their SB success percentage is just below league average, so there is still room to improve their baserunning, but improvement is already apparent.
Defensively, they are sixth in outs above average. Many of their errors have been more mental (concentration) errors rather than physical ones. There is room for improvement here as well.
After about one month, I’m going to push back on the notion that the Reds misspent their budget. The pitching, hitting, and fielding statistics show that the Reds have above-average talent, and the different facets of the team appear fairly well-balanced. Francona seems to be having a positive impact as well. Now that the team is getting healthy, I expect a strong May. That said, I agree with you that there is not a ton of depth, but there is some, and certainly more than we had last year.
@ATH, couldn’t agree more.
@All, “A bigger budget doesn’t always equate to success either.”
No, it doesn’t but it does allow for mistakes.
@BK, I’m not saying they misspent, but underspent. The only excuse that kept me from being really frustrated is the TV contract situation.
That said I still think they could have spent another $20M. Spotrac has them at $116M. I don’t think 136M is out of the question.
A bigger budget “can” allow for mistakes.
It can also consume resources, provide regular playing time for underperforming players (see previous refs to Santander, Roberts, Benintendi and our own Candelario), and ultimately lead to rebuilds if not used properly (see Washington Nats after they extended Strasburg for $245M and signed Corbin for $140M. Those two injured and underperforming players caused the Nats to rebuild after they consumed available resources with zero or negative performance).
Good comments ATH, BK, and MBS. All valid points. I’d also point to another RLN favorite in Profar, as a guy they wanted to sign.
All good posts guys.
Let’s win a series in Colorado and get back to .500
I’ve appreciated that Francona seems willing to bench him. He sat out two games and nothing was said about an injury. And Terry seems keen on Marte now, so that’s going to reduce Jeimer’s opportunities.
It takes guts for a manager to sit the team’s second highest paid player. Looks like Tito has the guts.
Well, not a lot of options when CES is on the IL and was hitting just as poorly with little to no track record of sustained success either. Steer is hitting .149 with an OPS of .469. Marte has had a nice week but cleaned up against 2 positional players to make his stats look good with a grand slam and RBI double. I love Espinal but hes not an everyday 3b against righties. So, you are stuck with piecemealing in a 3b/1b/DH rotation with the players and matchups you have on the 26 man roster. We are back to sorting corner infield.
Candy’s stats are bad but its April 25th. He hammered 2 balls in Miami, one was a nice sac Fly and the other was a 99 mph 370 foot for an out in deep rf which would have been gone at GABP. What happened to waiting till Memorial day and 150 at bats? Remember Suarez a few years ago went 0-5 with 5 k’s and was hitting about .130 and Bell moved him up to lead off to get him going. ( that didnt work). Votto had years of hitting sub .200 in April and May. How ’bout that Kyle Farmer 0-33 streak a few years back. Look around the league. RLN favorite Luis Robert is oN fIrE AfTeR his 0-4 and 3 K’s to lower his BA to .138 and OPS .493. Jon India OPS is .565. He is yet to homer. Joc Pederson is hitting .066 for Texas. Marcus Semien checks in at .148( he of the 7 year $175 million contract.) Dylan Crews- the Nats Uber phenom OPS is .530 with a .270 OBP. Wily Adames and his $182 million contract is returning a .543 OPS. And on and on.
Im not saying Candy is going to turn it on but lacking Tony Perez at first base and Scott Rolen at 3b and George Foster at DH as options…..Tito just needs to mix and match and if Marte continues to earn playing time at 3b great. If Steer gets hot and plays a good 1b thats great but Id take things week to week for now and see what those number look like Memorial day after 150 at bats. CES is weeks away and its not like he’s proven anything either.
Coors field awaits and Rockies pitchers had to burn thru a double header yesterday. See how the weekend goes and the 4 game home stand against the Cards. Someone is bound to get hot.
I’m with you here. I think and hope he can turn things around. He really needs to learn to lay off bad pitches which is not always easy. If it was more people would be batting .300 or better. I really thought he would have season. It’s still pretty early though and I am not ready to write him off yet. Now if we get to the end of May and he is still whiffing at everything them maybe it is time to make an adjustment. One thing that drives me crazy is there are several posters that just expect players to always be good. Even the best players have extended slumps sometimes. On the other hand, I am not really willing to wait until the trade deadline either for Candy to get going. I root for him each time he plays to at least take a walk or get a single hit each game. It’s been hard to watch, and I am sure he is really frustrated himself. If he has some minor injury perhaps, they should put him on the 15-day IL.
Here is to hope he can turn it around sooner rather than later.
Ultra long term 7-year contracts on these players just baffle me. Seems like the owner has more money than they know what to do with.
I believe the true answer is that Baseball has a hitting problem. Too many great hitters struggling. Mound will be lowered or moved back. It has to happen like it happened in the past, its just non-competitive. Yes, Candy is not great, but just like they banned spider tack in 2020 and Doc Gooden got the mound lowered, it will happen again as players near a 40% K Rate on average and stars hit .150.
They lowered the pitching mound after the 1968 season, because guys like Bob Gibson, Don Drysdale and Luis Tiant were unhittable.
I think they will take a hard look at moving the mound/rubber back, perhaps only as much as a 6-12 inches, but they may first try moving the back of the batters’ box back by that much. They’ve figured out that most hard contact is now made a few inches in front of the plate. There is an argument, though, that moving the mound back would just make breaking pitches harder to hit.
I think sometimes thankfully I don’t have the cable to watch the games, as I think I’d go a bit crazy watching the terrible hitting! I enjoy watching the highlights through MLB Gameday, and the occasional free game on MLB.com, Roku, etc.
But I wonder what can be done to help the hitting. It seems really good college hitters could come up and hit .150 for a period of time. As they put the pitching clock in to speed up the flow of the game, somehow they need to find ways to encourage better hitting overall.
I like the occasional great pitching matchup, and like to see a reliever dominate, but especially when you’re at a game in person the most interesting thing is seeing balls in play, getting to see the Shortstop, Right Fielder’s arm, seeing a ball go into the gap, down the left field line, etc. Seeing a pitcher throw the ball into a catcher’s mitt over and over is not the most exciting thing especially at the rate it seems to be occurring these days.
A good bunter can stop that ball from going into the catcher’s mitt but the bunt is not used enough in modern MLB.
Signed for 45 mill for 3 years and are barely into year 2 and they do not know what to do w him.
Anyone know why we haven’t had a Riverfront podcast episode yet this year?
Good point I forgot about it to be honest. People move on. 1 every other week would be fine with me. I know Nate was doing a lot more with those. Maybe real life just got him too busy to do them.
No need to over-analyze. Most observers like me didn’t fall for the small chorus of, “You just wait until he hits a double every fifth game.” Never knew why they signed him from day 1. Have been hoping he’d prove people like me wrong. Still hoping. But wow, I didn’t see it being this bad.
I too was very surprised by the signing. I was hopeful that he would produce at least league average stats or slightly better.
The Rockies have been horrific thus far this year. If there was ever an opportunity for the Reds hitters to wake up, then this would be that opportunity. They need to keep their head in the game and not suffer one of their legendary collapses against bad teams.
Agreed If they don’t win 2 or 3 it’s probably because they were not really focused or were laying back a little.
What a bad signing Kris Bryant was for the Rockies. I think there were injury concerns before they signed him if I remember correctly. I feel for him a bit as chronic back injuries I understand. I don’t know how you could play through that?
The Candelario signing looks pretty bad, but the Reds aren’t alone in bad signings. Honestly, I have a hard time thinking of the really good free agent signings across the league.
I actually think Candelario’s signing is one that before hand you could take the risk believing if it’s not going to work out, it’s not going to mess up all your plans. But the deeper issue is it seems Krall has made a lot of not great free agent signings now.
Even Montas, and this year Martinez you start to wonder, $37 million over two years (with Montas I think they saved some of that money with the trade), for maybe #4 or #5 pitchers. Still think Martinez will be solid overall, but that was a lot of money for most likely a 4 or 5 starter.
The bottom line is that the Reds’ FO needs to quit thinking that league average players will suddenly be all-stars playing at the GABP. Thus far, that hasn’t been true more often than it has. One could argue that Castellanos was up a bit. at least in his second year. But, it’s not a great bet most of the time. Start signing players that have been above average players, regardless of home ballpark, and then you odds go up, e.g., Ohtani, Soto, Alonso (all well out of the Reds price range) are going to outperform Candelario and Moustakas, regardless of where each team plays half their games.
For years people complained about Votto having a large contract (that was a very team friendly deal) and how it hamstrung the franchise from doing anything else. If the Reds signed one of the Ohtani, Soto, Alonso type of players it would absolutely keep them from signing anybody else. Plus those type of players would only come if the Reds overpay big time as they would lose endorsement deals that come along with bigger cities. It is easy to rail against the signing of players like Moose and Candy, but in reality that is all the Reds can do in the offensive free agent market.
Personally, I would prefer them to invest any type of free agent money into big time closers. Those contracts are much smaller and much shorter and I think would have a substantially larger impact on the team’s W/L record. Develop starting pitching and offense via draft, trade, and short signings like Austin Hays.
Martinez may end up back in the bullpen before long with all the good starting pitching, the Reds have. He will be a very expensive bullpen piece but may end up there just due to other starting pitchers pitching well.
Really good and thoughtful discussion, everybody.
Well said GMR.. 3-3 so far on this 9 game roadie against O’s and Marlins. Win this series to get back to .500 and then it’s game on with a 4 game series against the Dirty Birds Monday. Go Reds.
Against lefty Freeland today, how about MM, Espinal(RF), Elly, Hays, Steer, Wynns(DH), Marte, Dunn(CF), Trevino Keep Wynns hot bat in the lineup and give Friedl, Fraley, Lux and Candelario a day off until maybe a pinch hit AB later in the game. Go Reds!
Reds lineup vs LHP Freeland
CF Friedl
DH McLain
SS Elly
LF Hays
3B Marte
1B Steer
2B Espinal
C Wynns
RF Dunn
—-
SP Abbott
Phooey! I was all ready to settle in for a couple of hours of the AAA Bats double header action tonight and discovered they are rained out (again). Another double header is scheduled for tomorrow, but only a singleton on Sunday.
How is anyone going to be ready to come up and help the Reds when the Bats keep postponing their games? 😉