Last night the Cincinnati Reds made another trade, this time by acquiring Gavin Lux from the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for a prospect and a 2025 draft pick. We wrote about that here if you want to read a little more detail about Lux. A bit after the trade was announced, President of Baseball Operations Nick Krall met with the local media to discuss the trade. Below is the entire transcript of the session – with a note that the questions asked have been paraphrased, while all of the answers from Krall are exactly as stated.
When the Dodgers signed Hyeseong Kim, did that give the club the idea that they could get Gavin Lux for a decent return?
We talked about it a couple of weeks ago. We knew he was available and we knew they were trying to get somebody else – we didn’t know exactly who. We talked about it internally. Jeff Graupe (Vice President, Assistant GM, Player Acquisition and Strategy) did a good job of keeping tabs with them on where they were with it and it came about over the last probably handful of days. Mostly since they signed (Kim).
How does he fit positionally into what you guys are doing?
If you look at our team last year, people argue that we had too many infielders to begin the year and obviously that didn’t play itself out. We were last in WAR in third base, first base, and DH. So if he comes in, and we look at him as a guy who is going to play some second base, play some outfield, play some DH in spring training – we’ll also give him a look at second, third, and short and see where it is and see where he is defensively with all those positions. We think he’s a quality left-handed hitter that just lengthens our lineup out.
Does that mean McLain in center more?
No, we’ll figure that out in spring training. Just being able to add a cost controlled left-handed hitter that has hit well against right-handed pitching. There’s an interesting article at Fangraphs that Jay Jaffe wrote about him and some of the changes he made in the second half, which was interesting. Just trying to swing harder, do a little more damage. I think he had the 13th highest wRC+ in the second half. With him it’s just a guy that we feel has a chance to come in and lengthen that lineup out.
Did you have eyes on him in the second half?
We did. We saw him in the second half. We’ve got guys that scout games, and our analytic guys as well. We definitely had eyes on him.
Do you guys envision needing more bats than Gavin Lux? Are you still looking for more offense?
Year. If we can add somebody to better our club, we’re going to look at it. We’re going to look at any ways we to continue to make this club the best we possibly can.
It looks like just doing back of the napkin math that you guys might be approaching, roughly, your budget. How much flexibility do you have left?
We have a little bit, not a ton. I think we’re just kind of working through that right now. We looked at trading the draft pick saved us some money there instead of trading a prospect and picking a player. We can put that into Major League payroll as well.
How much do you think the knee injury (torn ACL) played into his slow start besides the change he made?
Obviously coming off of an ACL tear and missing the whole year you’re going to have some ups and downs. It probably played some. I haven’t talked to him – I know Brad (Meader – Senior Vice President, General Manager) and Tito (Francona) talked to him. But I think that you’re hoping that’s part of it. He’s a guy with really good upside. Even still with where he is right now, he still has some room to run to get better.
His speed took a dip after his injury. Do you see that last year was maybe getting that one year back or just someone getting older and slower?
I think when you have leg injuries it’s going to slow you down a little bit, not sure he’s going to come back to being the burner that he was. But at the same time you never know, some of those guys it takes a little while and they get that speed back once they get more comfortable on their legs.
With the TV situation playing out as it has, and how it’s seemingly kept a lot of teams from doing much how do you think you guys stack up within the division where all but one team of the other four haven’t really added anything from the outside?
We’ve got a good division. The Brewers were really good last year. The Cubs have added some players. The Cardinals still have some good players. The Pirates made some additions, obviously they have their pitching staff, and they added Horowitz that they added from Toronto. We look it as we’ve got about six more weeks of the offseason left and we’re going to try to do the best we can to improve this club.
Do you envision Lux possibly playing in the outfield at all?
Like I said before we’re going to look at him at second base, the outfield, DH, some shortstop and third base in spring training and see what works and what doesn’t. It’s going to sort itself out in spring training where best everyone fits to go into the season.
1. McLain to CF, Lux/Bowman platoon at 2b?
2. Lux, 3b. Marte at AAA?
I’m guessing no to both of those, but who knows. I think McLain is locked in at 2B, but there’s a bigger chance he plays CF than Lux being our primary starting 3B.
Well, he did say no to McLain in the of.
Give me #2
Guess I’d rather see Bowman/Friedl in center Lux/Espinal at third and leave McLain alone at second. Matt and Elly work well together.
I may be in the minority but I don’t want to see McLain in the OF. Just coming off shoulder surgery I personally would not want to see him diving full speed or running into walls and throwing max effort back into the infield. I know any position comes with risks but seems to me OF and a recently repaired shoulder do not match.
Wouldn’t there be more action and diving at 2B?
He’s young and should’ve healed up rather easily and fully. I don’t think he needs to be handled with kid gloves …
BTW, McLain hurt his shoulder diving for a ball in ST while playing 2B. And it’s his nonthrowing shoulder so OF throws should not be an issue.
EARM – Mclain catches the ball on the infield better than anyone on the roster. That’s why he should play infield. He needs to get back into baseball shape not learning a new position he hasn’t played since a freshman in college.
I think Krall doesn’t apparently know where and when he’ll play either. He just knows he’s good. The plan is to let Francona figure it out. Once again, I think it will be hard to not put Lux at 2nd, Elly at 3rd, and McLain at short. That is a very solid infield.
It is not hard to keep one of the best defensive shortstops at shortstop…they are not and should not be moving Elly anywhere
They said a million times they are NOT moving Elly from SS but people continue to bring it up.He is not moving.
ELDC is an elite SS. He stays there. Move Mclain to 3B if you wish. Put Lux at 2B if so.
He’s elite wherever he plays.
I would not mind seeing MM at 3rd in an Alex Bregman sort of move like the stros did with AB. put him on third and leave him there, I think he has enough power to profile there. I think his glove is good enough, and then you have lux as your everyday 2b. Maybe Marte tears it up in triple A and he forces his way back on this roster. But he will do that with his bat, I do not think his glove will ever be a “strength”
I agree! Now that we have a real ML manager, it is up to Tito to sort thru the talent and play the best players where they are best suited and can help this team WIN!
1. Oh look, the Reds are crying poor again.
2. How this reads to me is: Lux is mostly the LF, but he might play some second (probably shifting McLain and Elly each to the left) here and there depending on the opposing pitcher.
I don’t see any indication from his history that Lux is a serious option at 3B or SS.
If he were suddenly able to hit like he was supposed to hit in the majors, that would be amazing.
Like the trade, particularly the fact that we didn’t have to give up tops prospects to get a 2+ WAR player who is cheap and has 2 years of control. Normally a plug and play 2+ WAR player would cost more than that. Also like the fact that the 2+ might have upside given his second half and pre-MLB ranking. So lots of things to like.
However, not particularly thrilled that this doubles down on platoon pieces, and the fact that we are still short in the RHH side of those platoons, as of right now anyway.
He wont be +2 without the monsters hitting in front of him in LA. He had opportunities to just do any little thing and he scored runs. Runners were always in play for him. He was a good player, had some clutch hits…they just hoped he was the future SS in LA. He isn’t a good SS and he has a weak and erratic arm to play third. Honestly doesn’t matter, Reds aren’t going anywhere, anytime soon. Poor Gavin Lux. From WS and annual “chase of a ring” to sub .500 team for the last 10 +years. Honestly since what Chris Sabo?
And I think you are spot on positionally, although not sure Elly will be shifting anywhere off SS at any time. Not sure how they view McLain at 3B, but that may be more likely in the event of Lux at 2B.
Agree ATH, I like this move. Thinking over things, it sounds like Lux will be given a look at 3b in spring training as well. I think the Reds have lost confidence in Marte and this is a big move that suggests Marte will not be on the OD 26 man roster.
I think they are ok with RH bats against. lefties
McLain, Steer and Stephenson will give you good AB’s.
CES and Candy and Elly will be the lineup as well and Espinal had a wRC + of 121 against lefties in 2024 and 114 for his career.
I do share the concerns of others as the roster heads towards (2) regulars in Fraley/Lux as lefty hitters who hit very well against righties but are anemic against lefties, needing a platoon partner or pinch hitter in late innings. But, lefty hitters who hit lefty pitchers well are unicorns. Soto, Kyle Tucker, Friedl ,Freeman, and a handful of others.
@old, I still like Grichuk and think he fits well to fill out the position player side of things, mashes LHP but can play against RHP as well. There are other guys who fit that and ideally one that could play CF in a pinch would be best, but that skill is hard to find.
Grichuk is actually a good fit for this team. I think he’d work on a few teams. I was not really for signing him but considering what is still out there and “We have a little bit, not a ton.”, he’s probably the best OF option still on the free-agent market.
I really doubt they’re shifting McLain and EDLC, but I’ve been wrong once or twice before.
I think Lux is here to play mostly a combo of LF, DH, and some 2B allowing McLain to DH/rest (and maybe for McLain injury insurance, since we traded India).
We need one more bat/outfielder. If we sign/trade for that, then Lux is just a solid depth piece.
Exactly how much money does the team have? I’ll bet you and most fans accusing them of being cheap couldn’t come within a mile one way or another. They’re cheap, they don’t really want to win, their uniforms are ugly….they know, you don’t.
I read that Lux has issues with throwing accuracy from the left side of the diamond, so I would think the bulk of his playing time will come from LF or DH. His splits are pretty extreme, so he’ll need a right handed platoon partner. Seems in that context he’s a better version of Jake Fraley, albeit with more pop but less speed.
I just don’t see a roster spot for Will Benson at this point. Crazy that in back to back years his OPS swung from .863 to .650.
I still have a lot of hope for Benson (and for Marte). But since they both have options, I prefer for them to start the year in Louisville and hit their way back onto the Reds.
I agree.
Does he have more pop than Fraley? I mostly disregard last season–Fraley had a family crisis and an illness and lost significant weight. Otherwise, they’re pretty comparable. Acquiring Lux may simply boil down to adding a fairly versatile player who is a decent hitter: given that India is gone and the roster is dotted with question marks, he may be seen as insurance with an upside.
Agree on your take on why Lux was acquired. I think they are intrigued with him in LF too.
Assuming Marte and Benson starts the year in Louisville (which is my hope), then we were at least one starter short.
Stephenson – C
Candy – 3B, DH
CES – 1B
Steer – LF, 3B
McLain – 2B
EDLC – SS
Fraley – RF
Friedl – CF
Lux – DH, LF, 2B
I like adding Lux to the mix. However, we need to add one more bat (specifically an outfielder). That’s really a must at this point.
Grichuk fits nicely, and agree on Marte/Benson to Louisville. Fairchild still the 5th OF that can back up CF in the Grichuk scenario.
I would be content adding Grichuk. That would give us 10 serviceable starters, and a likely a bench of Trevino, Espinal, Fairchild, and whichever of the 10 aren’t starting that game.
Of course, this is assuming everyone is healthy to start the year, which won’t be the case.
Still not enough. And Krall seems to know that. Whether he solves the problem or not remains to be seen. I think the question of moving EDLC from SS has been answered by the club, the analysts, and most of the baseball writers. It’s not happening. McLain to the OF, maybe. Lux has an upside and his splits suggest platoon. He seems like a solid .260 hitter against RH’ers, but barely .200 against LH – so another Fraley. Without subsequent moves, I don’t see that acquiring Lux was a game changer. Moving Marte or Candelario (fat chance) may still be out there if Krall can find the bat that works. I’m not sure that guy is Robert, since he’s injury prone. But we’ll see over the next few weeks. With all the teams needing a 3B, I would think dumping Candelario would be feasible. Probably have to throw in a pitcher to get a decent return but worth the risk.
Not ready to give up on Candelario. He had a bad year with injuries. Lets see how his second year plays out. I still think he can be a solid 3rdbasemen for the Reds.
My concern is the bullpen. A few spots open and nothing yet to suggest they are going to fill those spots. I assume Maxwell, Rey, and Ashcraft?
Why sell low on Candelario? Let him play all year and hit 30+ HR with an OPS of .800+ and then sell if need be. Of course when that happens everyone on here will say it is foolish to trade him then. At least they did so with Steer and Steer is not nearly as good as Candelario.
Because even if Candelario has one of his occasional good years, he’s fundamentally a league average player with poor defensive skills and not worth what they are paying him. Hope he has a great year and Krall dumps him at the trading deadline. His signing isn’t as bad as Moustakas but he’s not what many here were hyping. I don’t like a theory that moving a league average player to the GABP turns him into Bonds or Ohtani.
LDS, You are misrepresenting Candelario’s history. His 5 year OPS+ average prior to last year is 115 (well above average) and Outs Above Average total for the 5 years of +4.
So above average offensively, average 3B defense is his “norm”.
Selling low on all players that have an off year is a bad recipe for a small market team.
Not at all. You’re cherry picking data. Over his career, his OPS+ is exactly 100. Yes, he has had some good years, but he’s also had years even worse than last, such as Detroit 2019 (91) and Detroit 2022(81). Yes, he had a good year in 2021 and 2023, so maybe he’ll have a good year this year. His career WAR is a staggering 9.4. EDLC compiled better than half that last year. Defensively, his metrics aren’t great and his Fld Pct last year was lower than his average, but it has been trending down for several seasons. Again, hope he has a good year this year and gets shipped off. Without changes, I doubt the Reds make the off season, so, if he’s having a good year, trade him for the best you can get.
LDS – You accuse ATH of cherry picking the data on Candelario, and then you proceed to … cherry pick the data.
You reach back to 2019 to talk about a down year, then SKIP 2020 when he had his best year ever (OPS+ of 137) to talk about 2021 forward. Candelario was signed as a FA coming off of a 4 year stretch where he averaged an OPS+ of 113. That 113 would’ve been the second highest on the team in 2024. Yes, JC’s career OPS+ is 100, but guess what? That OPS+ of 100 would’ve been the fourth highest on the team in 2024.
Candelario gets a lot of grief from the fans here, but he really isn’t the weak link on the team, and like Friedl he was hurt for months in 2024. As Stock states above, Candelario is better than Steer and yet Steer is praised in these parts.
Candelario belongs in the heart of this lineup, until the pieces around him start outperforming him.
I don’t consider 2020 as worthy of consideration, either good or bad. And 2022 is more recent. And you are arguing that league average is an improvement for the Reds. So it is. That’s how pathetic the team performed the last few years. League average doesn’t win championships.
Re: “League average doesn’t win championships.”
Sure it does!
The 2014 World Series Champions San Francisco Giants finished the regular season with a 100 OPS+ and a 99 ERA+.
Tom, there are always outliers. The odds of a league average team winning the World Series with any regularity is like beating the casino in the long run.
LDS, c’mon. You say that you don’t consider Candelario’s 2020 OPS+ of 137 as worthy of consideration, either good or bad. Yet you consider his 2019 OPS+ of 91 worth mentioning. Is that a cherry pie or cobbler you’re baking?
You’ve been an outspoken critic of Candelario from the moment he was signed. Yet people with baseball smarts greater than you and I think he’s an above average player (the ZIPS projections for instance, his MLBTR rating at the time of his FA signing, etc. etc.).
Candelario is one of the better players on the Reds. I don’t understand your hatred of the man – did he date your sister?
You don’t have to get personal. I don’t think Candelario is good. And no he didn’t date my sister. Your argument is pretty weak when you keep pushing his stellar two months of pandemic baseball in 2020. It was basically an exhibition season.
And maybe people don’t “hate” the man but hate seeing the highest paid player on the team put up a negative WAR season.
@Stock
“Let him (Candelario) play all year and hit 30+ HR with an OPS of .800+ and then sell if need be. ”
The problem with that scenario is, there is nothing in his track record showing he can hit 30 HR’s.
Over the past few seasons, he averages 1 HR per 31.1 plate appearances.
That means (with 4 PA’s per game) he needs to play in 231 games next season to reach 30 HR’s.
For your scenario to work out, he needs to either:
+ play in 231 games next season (unlikely)
+ have a career best home run rate that exceeds his typical season by 50% (also unlikely)
@EB, I don’t consider 2020 as relevant to ANY player, not just Candelario. It was a short season – 60 games. Players are often streaky for a month or two and have below average numbers for the year, e.g., Candelario last year. Statistics compiled in 2020 are simply not representative of what to expect over a full season. As for hating him? Nope, I simply look at the cost and the productivity. It’s not there now or historically. It shows up occasionally, but not consistently. All players have streaks, good and bad. But consistent play over an extended period means more. So, a player with a career OPS+ of 100 is an average player regardless of those streaks.
Candelario was injured and playing hurt last season. A reasonable jury would still be out, and, in any case, we’ll probably find out in a few months.
@LDS – When evaluating players it’s best to look at the most recent (3-4) healthy seasons when looking back. Using his career stats doesn’t mean that much when you have to go all the way back to 2016.
Votto was good in 2010 and 2017….therefore we should have expected that in 2023?
Look at the most recent years. If there are bad years, see if he was injured. It’s not that hard.
EDLC take a big leap in 2025 by doing three things better:
– Cuts down routine ground-ball errors significantly. He was always cutting those down toward the end of 2024.
– Avoids pickoffs. He was testing his limits in 2024, which made sense. Time to play slightly within those limits.
– Avoids running into outs. See “testing his limits” comment above.
If he does those three things, he jumps from a top 30 player to a top 10.
His bat will need to improve for him to get to top 5.
I love the idea of packaging pitching with Candelario for a decent OF. I did a cursory look at what teams might need a 3B and did not see one but as mentioned it was cursory. What teams need a 3B? Especially one who makes a total of $27M over the next two years, plays poor defense and coming off a bad offensive year with injury? Before we got Lux I toyed with trading Candelario/Lodolo for Castellanos and Bohm.
Oakland, Houston, Detroit, and Seattle were still looking last I checked. Bregman and Moncada may solve 3B for some of these, but not all.
On a 10-1 contract scale, 1 being Javy Baez level, Candelario is a 3 at worst. It’s time limited, $ limited (in MLB terms), and there is a base level of production there. Even when he signed it was obviously a bridge contract for the youngsters to develop, and a possible mid-season deal maker. If he gets a good start this year it becomes an acceptable deal – it may never get to the good level, but it was never meant to be the deal to get them deep into the post season.
The problem is that it’s probably a better mid-season move than now – would almost certainly have to include more pieces, and a bigger package, at this point.
But, if he and Marte (in AAA) both start hot, this is the mid-season to strike.
Lux hit over 300 second half of the season.
He is a good solid player with alot of upside. I like this trade and hopefully a few more along the way.
I think you’ll need to expect a drop off. He has only ever played for the Dodgers. He was the only part of the lineup on LAD that you can actually pitch to. He always had runners on and the pressure always on the pitchers at his at bats. He was in a nice spot and he was pretty clutch, i just dont see him having high leverage situations with the Reds with pitchers getting nervous. On the Reds he is moving up the lineup and getting that smoke from the pitchers, he’s not batting 9th with Ohtani on deck.
Looking at what we actually have,
1 McLain CF
2 EDLC SS
3 Stephenson C
4 Candelario DH
5 Lux 2B
6 Steer 3B
7 Fraley RF
8 CES 1B
9 Friedl LF
C Trevino, INF Espinal,
INF/OF Bowman, OF Fairchild
I’d have Benson, and Marte in the OF in AAA. If we could get either or both of them back to a 2023 version, then we start to get good. Right now we are missing 2 good bats, and the payroll is creeping up. I don’t really see Krall adding the $30M – $40M in payroll to get the good proven bats we need. $7M – $12M feels more like the cap.
Send Votto to work with Benson and Marte in AAA. Votto worked miracles with Benson.
With as Marte experienced last year – the PED issue, slow start, defense that got worse. He’s not that bad of baseball player. Something happened and hopefully that something can be fixed.
That’s a version I could definitely live with. There is probably at least 6 ways this thing could play out, my current favorite is:
CF Friedl
3B McLain
SS De La Cruz
1B Encarnacion-Strand
DH Candelario
C Stephenson
2B Lux
LF Steer
RF Fraley
C Trevino
IF Espinal
IF Bowman
OF Fairchild
@T Reeves, I like that idea. It would also be nice to keep such a guy close to the game, and organization.
@T Diesman, I do love McLain at SS, and I think he’d make a better 3B than a 2B. I’m just very concerned about the OF. That’s not just a “this year problem”, so I’d like to move some talent from the infield to the OF.
We have Arroyo, Collier, and Stewart all probably 1 or 2 years away to fill in the infield gaps, but no highly ranked prospects coming up in the OF.
With Lux’s arrival and EDLC, we have up the middle covered, with CES and Steer manning the corners. Steer isn’t a great 3B, so maybe Candy goes back there? Steer could then DH and super utility.
Like you said there’s a lot of scenarios at this point.
If McLain could cover CF, and Friedl grabs a corner, we’d only need one more above average OF.
For me I lead off with Elly. Don’t want anyone in front of him clogging the bases.
Then Friedl who is a great bunter.
Then
Mclain Stephenson, Lux, Candelario, Encarnacion-Strand, Steer and Fraley
I don’t want to put too much pressure on Strand in the cleanup spot right off the bat. Let’s see what he can do before we put him there.
TD – That’s a respectable defensive lineup. I like the batting order – there really isn’t a black hole in the order as there was in recent years.
Not much pop on the bench and only 4 OFrs, if Bowman is considered an IFr. Fairchild is a worthy defender, but perhaps a Grichuk or Hays can take his spot. Fairchild doesn’t give you much with the bat and I’ve wondered from time to time about his baseball instincts.
@MBS – You are using Mclain in the OF even though Krall said otherwise.
He’s better utilized because of his infield glove.
When did Krall say where McLain’s playing? Send me the quote please. Krall has been ambiguous about McLain, and Lux’s spots on the field.
From the article above.
Does that mean McLain in center more?
No, we’ll figure that out in spring training.
Minor leaguer (Sirota) and draft pick for major leaguer (Lux). Good S/T trade for Reds. At worst, Lux replaces India and Reds added SP Singer.
Our CF had a (19) DRS between 2023-2024 and (1) OAA. That was 27th in the league. CF needs fixed. Going with a LF playing RF who hit 5 HR last year as your primary RF this year is a mistake too.
We need 2 OF and we need to deal 1-2 of our decent offense not-so-decent defense players to improve the defense. Terry Francona will not improve our defense. Getting Terry Francona type players will.
If Krall is commingling draft pool money with MLB roster money as an overall budget that tells me he again has zero budget to work with and Castellini needs to sell his interest in the team. Penny-pinching has still not ever won a championship – and we’re not the Rays. We’re the Kansas City Athletics from the early ’50’s.
We were a first place team in June/July 2023. Since then, we’ve added Sam Moll, extended David Bell, signed Tito Francona, and traded for Brady Singer and Gavin Lux. In comparison, over that same time frame, the Dodgers traded for Kike Hernandez, Joe Kelly, Lance Lynn, Ryan Yarbrough, signed Kolten Wong, Jason Heyward, Joe Kelly, and Shohei Ohtani, traded for Trey Sweeney, signed Daniel Hudson, traded from Tyler Glasnow and Manny Margot, signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Teoscar Hernandez, TJ McFarland, James Paxton, Ryan Brasier, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Wilson, Kike Hernandez, traded for Tommy Edman and Michael Kopech, traded for Jack Flaherty and Kevin Kiermaier, signed Giovanny Gallegos, Blake Snell, Blake Treinen, Teoscar Hernandez, Hyesoeong Kim, and Michael Conforto.
I don’t think it is too much to ask for ownership to focus less on profits (their businesses and other investments should have already done that in their careers) and more on competing for a championship by upping the budget. The roster management group should then go out and fix CF and RF and maybe add more weapons to the bullpen.
When the Reds had good teams, this was never a problem. Jonathan India said it all right before he was dealt. I think Wade Miley made a comment like that too. Do we want to win? Do the owners want to win? That’s a serious question.
You forgot a few things since 2023.
Nick Martinez $35M
Candelario $45M
Pagan $16M
Montas $14M
Comparing to Dodgers is irrelevant. If you want a more relevant comparison, do it with Brewers and Cardinals and the transactions they’ve made since 2023 deadline.
MBG – Our CF is a problem that a lot of teams would like to have. Friedl is an above average defensive and offensive centerfielder. Using stats from last year when he had hamstring problems is obviously going to distort things. We’re just a year removed from when he received MVP votes.
And comparing the Reds player acquisitions to the Dodgers is ridiculous. When your kid comes to you and says that their friends get a new BMW every year for Christmas do you turn around and buy them one? The Reds can’t get anywhere close to spending like the Dodgers.
Great analogy, Earmbrister. I love it!
Let’s just agree that I perhaps overreacted to Krall’s comments. I’m still irked at penny-pinching. The money is there. The Reds owners, just like the Pirates and others, are just pocketing the profits. De La Cruz and Skenes are not resources to make money – they are resources to build a contender.
Oakland is waking up. They are signing players and they just extended Rooker.
Spend the money.
I think teams get their share of the luxury tax money soon. 9 teams contributed to such. Spend the money.
@Michael B. Green
Oakland needs to get to a $105MM payroll to be in compliance with the CBA and not lose revenue sharing. They haven’t woken up, they are being forced to reach a minimum spending threshold to not be stricken by a lawsuit. Unfortunately, Baseball is a business. Elly an Skenes are resources to make money, as are Ohtani, Betts, Soto, Judge etc. Some teams just make a whole lot more money than us.
I think you’re likely right when it comes to the money being there Michael. I doubt it is nearly as much as you think it is but I’d be very surprised if there isn’t at least another $25-million over and above what is being spent.
We can’t know for sure though. I wish that MLB teams were more transparent with their ledgers but they aren’t. We know the Reds have lost the revenue of roughly $60-million or so due to losing their TV contract. As MLB is working with them to stream games, some of that money is likely being handed over by MLB. How much of the lost revenue that is offset by MLB, I’d love to know.
Not “commingling”. Just simple logic and paying attention to the big picture. And pretty creative. He decided to give the money to a big league player that can help the team this year instead of a draft pick that might help the team years down the road.
Interesting series of comments – find myself agreeing with Hype and LDS on this. M Green – yes, the budget comment stood out, and was bad, but it’s not about a “zero budget to work with”. It’s revealing to a small degree in the leeway the FO has in short-term vs. long-term planning, but still, not in a good way. The slight good news is they haven’t shut down completely, and there’s a small hint we could see a top-prospect(s)-for-talent deal.
And a surprisingly downcast view from Jason – Lux and Fraley are not too comparable. Fraley is clearly a proven platoon player, while Lux had one season of excellent splits so there may be something to work with. As for the field, I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t have at least 2/3 of his play is at 2b. EDLC is proven to play 160+ games, but I expect they will plan on McLain and Lux at 130-140, with Lux getting sporadic time at 3b, and some very minimal time at SS. More time at 3b than in the OF.
A final neat thing this may show is TF’s acumen in extra-inning games – I recall many commenting on the few times the Reds bungled the lineups and man-on-2nd situations – happens less than 3-4 times a season, but, again, one of the little in-game items very much in a manager’s control. Lux extends the bench to help there.
Finally – cannot be the last transaction.
The only problem I have with Kralls take is they want to get a look at him at shortstop. Well there is plenty of tape at him at shortstop just this past season and it was ugly. Not sure how Krall is unaware of this or at least he pretends to be ignorant about it.
Might take is that Krall did not want to publicly talk about McLain moving to the outfield in case it doesn’t work out. I gotta believe that Lux is going to spend most of his time at second base and DH.
But this is just conjecture on my part.
Krall pretty much came out and said moving Mclain to the outfield was not the plan. This is good news.
Plans change…which in this case means there’s some bad injury news and MMC would have to play OF
I think that Krall was just being kind. Lux might get a few innings at SS in blow-out games or some odd circumstance, but he isn’t a real SS option and Krall knows it every bit as well as we know it.
One of RLNs favorite OF solutions has been taken off the board. Rooker signed a 5 year extension with the Athletics.
Who in their right mind signs an extension with the A’s right now? That’s crazy.
Going to Vegas!
The stadium design looks pretty cool. It will definitely be unique.
Maui, The Sphere is beyond description. No place in the world like it. And the F1 race was fantastic (just don’t ask the Uber drivers).
Or rather, I wish EDLC and McLain had Rooker’s representatives instead of Boras.
Yep, I saw that. I know that teams made strong offers for Rooker and yet the A’s kept saying that they weren’t moving him. They literally have put their money where their mouths are with the extension, buying out some free-agent years in the process. It also helps them meet their minimum spending obligations.
This is depressing actually. They gave up a nice pick for budgetary reasons.
You can argue whether that should be the case and whether it’s the fan’s problem, whether it’s a fake cry or what but it is reality that they act on it like that and really sad. That makes me wonder if it’s even worth being emotionally invested anymore.
Austin Hays should be a cheap get for potential outfield help. Don’t know why, ESPECIALLY if we’re hurting on the budget side, we’re not bringing him in on a 2-year-prove-it special like we’ve offered the last few years.
Otherwise, are we the idiots in the asylum, or are the front office?
I like Hays, too. He’s coming off a kidney infection that smothered the last half of his season in 2024. He has also played some CF, too.
Obviously, Randal Grichuk would work, too. Grichuk had a career high OPS+ last season at age 32, in a platoon role in Arizona. Grichuk played some CF as a younger player, and then a little bit for Colorado, which doesn’t count because the Rockies have no clue what they are doing.
Neither Grichuk nor Hays would break the bank for Cincinnati.
Still holding out for a Luis Robert trade. May have to wait until July.
Grichuk, Verdugo and Hays seem like $10M 1 year deals, though Grichuk is beyond the “pillow” deal age and may want 2+ years, None of them are the big “power” hitter, but that pool is limited this off season.
Point being that $20M fills the OF with MLB hitters – let TF shape and shift as needed, and be ready to wheel and deal up to the deadline.
I know I’m high on Hopium but I’d love to see this lineup on Opening Day: McLain 2B, Friedl CF, EDLC SS, Santander DH, Stephenson C, Candy 3B, Steer LF, CES 1B, and Fraley RF. With Lux, Espinal, Fairchild, and Trevino as bench pieces!!
Santander signed elsewhere. I doubt his team will let him play for the Reds on Opening Day.
Santander is still unsigned. The Blue Jays are reported to have made an offer, but the Blue Jays seem to be going in the wrong direction, and they have contract issues with pending free agents Bichette and Guerrero.
I think the Reds have passed on Santander because he is slow, defensively weak, and limited in where to play, and not worth a 4-year bet that he will beat the aging curve. Reasonable people can differ, but a lot of teams have the same concerns.
And if the Reds did sign Santander, they would have to give up a draft pick, which they are justifiably reluctant to do.
I haven’t seen anything on that yet. Who did Santander sign with Oldtimer?
And Santander doesn’t get on base alot… which is kind of important in scoring runs.
A couple days ago. I thought he signed with Toronto.
I highly doubt he signs with the Reds.
I think Krall is just bluffing about where Lux will play. He knows he wants him at 3B with Marte in the minors. Just not ready to say that yet.
I thought the consensus was that Lux doesn’t have the arm to play 3B?
Overstated, at the time he was recovering from his knee and didn’t get his lowe body involved in throwing mechanics properly.
Let me get this straight —
They traded India to clear a spot for McLain.
Now they’re going to move McLain around to clear space for Lux.
How about acquiring a much-needed corner outfielder once in awhile instead of this never-ending obsession with middle infielders.
Thank you, Rob.
Yep…. Teams need to plan. The Reds plan is to find the biggest bargain on the fly and force squares into circles. They use the multiple positions bs to make it seem more valuable than it really is. A starting SS and C and the rest of the team rotate. What a plan. Everyone should be great defensively when playing musical chairs all season long. These are methods that cheap ownership has to use, especially if you have multiple owners all expecting a nice profit.
The Reds are almost always gonna be the 15th to 25th best team. That’s pretty much our reality as fans. Like it or move along.
Agreed. However this IMO was too good a deal to pass up given what we ended up giving back with the caveat that another move is forthcoming for a power hitting RH hitting OF. Nothing with this trade as far as I can tell should prohibit the Reds from going after said OF’er either through a trade of FA signing. We shall see.
Middle infielders are the best athletes on a team. That is why year in and year out, the SS position is the #1 drafted position in the draft. And that is why those same SSs are moved from SS to other key defensive positions as they develop.
Mookie Betts played SS, 2B, and CF in HS and the minors. Anyone really complaining about him playing in RF?
This team has TWO players returning that had OPS+s of 100 or greater in 2024. I think we can find room in the lineup for Lux’s bat. If McLain is willing to move to the OF, I’m all for it because he is the type of athlete that should be able to make that transition. Having McLain’s bat in the OF fills one of the black holes in our lineup.
Perfectly stated, Rob.
Agree with this Rob. Also agree you with MB Green. Hardly anything makes sense anymore w them and Im not sure there are alot of GMs who could work for the Reds under these parameters. I think this why Nick Krall is here, noone w experience would be interested. I am hard on him because he is the face of it when in reality he has no chance to suceed here w this ownership. Mr Krall hasnt helped himself either, but its not all his fault by any stretch.
I feel like we are in the dark days of Reds baseball and I hate feeling like that.
Some less expensive outfield options the Reds might want to check out.
LF Taylor Ward (LAA) .748 OPS 25 HR 75 RBI
CF Jake McCarthy (ARI) .749 OPS 8 HR 56 RBI
RF Jesus Sanchez (MIA) .731 OPS 18 HR 64 RBI
AAA:
LF Jacob Melton (HOU)
HIT-50 POWER-50 RUN-60 ARM-55 FIELD-55
CF Chandler Simpson (TB-AA)
HIT-65 POWER-20 RUN-80 (104 SB IN 2024) ARM-50 FIELD-50
RF Chase DeLauter (CLE)
HIT-55 POWER-60 RUN-55 ARM-60 FIELD-55
I’d love DeLauter, but I don’t think CLE is going to give away 6+ years of a prospect like that. They are too similar to us, in the fact that they don’t like spending money. To get him you’d need to be taking $$$ off of their payroll on a losing season. Then you might be able to swing it.
I like all 3 of the MLBers as options.
big fan of both Ward and Sanchez… not so much McCarthy. It would be a big risk to go after minor leaguers to plan on major league at bats. We need something better than the hope strategy. I think Ward and Sanchez both give you power and defense.
Dodgers have was Sirota for a while. He was selected by the Dodgers in the 16th round of the 2021 draft.
I see a hundred responses with a hundred scenarios. Obviously, this move like so many others does not pave a clear path to an everyday lineup. The Reds’ offense will rely on young players who showed some promise two seasons ago and “maybe” guys — none of whom have a rock-solid position, except EDLC. Which will make pitching more important than ever and, despite comments to the contrary about a week ago, the decisions of Francona. If he can figure out this roster day to day, then he can be worth more than the “max 2-4 wins” that some have posited.
There are still some things that will shake out as Spring Training begins, and then progresses.
Big question marks: Do Benson and Marte start at AAA, or do they get moved, or what?
Who’s on 2nd?: Lux, Espinal, McLain. Actually, I could see something of a “platoon” between Espinal and Lux at 2nd base.
Who’s on 3rd?: Candelario, McLain. Maybe they switch off between DH and in the field.
Outfield: Spencer Steer in Left Field? If CES has problems (which I sincerely doubt) hitting, then maybe Steer plays 1st base. Friedl in CF (or….is it McLain??), with Fraley platooning in RF with…..TBD. Fairchild? Fairchild may not even make the team. McLain in RF?
The Reds do seem to possibly have an excess of starting pitching (depending on who is ok and who might be hurtin’) going into Spring Training. This is their Ace in the Hole for getting that big bat to play outfield and put in the middle of the lineup.
It could happen.
C’mon David, we all know:
Who’s on first.
The average MLB salary in 1995 was about $1.1M. Here are the CIN Reds with salaries above that:
Larkin $5.9M
Rijo $5.8M
Smiley $5.0M
Deion $3.7M
Gant $3.6M
Hal Morris $3.3M
Reggie Sanders $2.0M
Brantley $1.8M
Xavier Hernandez $1.5M
Mike Jackson $1.3M
That’s 10 players. They then traded for David Wells at the Deadline. That’s 11.
The average MLB salary in 2024 was about $5M. Here are the Reds with salaries over that:
Nick Martinez $21M
Jeimer Candelario $13M
Emilio Pagan $8M
That’s 3 players. Perhaps a few more will go over that in arbitration. Hunter Greene should make $6.3M in 2025. India was set to make $5M and he’s gone. Replaced by Lux.
The 1995 Reds went 85-59 and swept the Dodgers in the Divisional World Series and they only lost to the World Series champs (the Braves).
There’s the comp. 11 paid players versus 4 today.
Are we going to compete or not? I don’t expect to compete, financially, with the Dodgers. I would expect a contending team to compete with at least our teams of the past – and we are not even close.
Sell the team.
And a $1 then is worth about $2.07 today.
Quick interpolation shows that we should have at least $70M to spend on our players that are at or beyond their arbitration years. That means we can and should go out and get someone for at least $12M.
That’s based on wealth from 1995. And wealth has gone up 6-9% a year since 1995. That means we should spend about $92M on our above-average priced players. That means we should have $32M to spend on arbitration raises and signings. That’s to just keep pace with 1995.
The money is there. If it isn’t, sell the team to some other billionairies.
@MBG, the Dodgers had a bigger payroll in 1996 than the Reds; however, the disparity in their payrolls has grown significantly, especially over the last fifteen years. To illustrate, I compared the opening day payrolls in five-year increments starting in 2006–the year the Castellini-led group bought the Reds:
2006-2010 – the Dodgers payroll was 49 percent higher than the Reds
2011-2015 – the Dodgers payroll was 87 percent higher than the Reds
2016-2020 – the Dodgers payroll was 107 percent higher than the Reds
2021-2025* – the Dodgers payroll was 157 percent higher than the Reds
Source: COTS Baseball
* 2025 data is projected as of today.
The Reds ranked 20.4 in payroll in the first five-year block and 23 in payroll over the current period, meaning their relative spending is about the same. In short, the disadvantage faced by the Reds in 1996 was much less than today.
Greene is definitely over $6 million. Singer will go over $5 million, and Lux and Stephensom may, too.
The youngest regular position player on the 1995 team was Bret Boone, who at 26 was less than a league-average hitter. Reggie Sanders was a 27-year-old first-year arbitration guy, and excellent. Morris, Larkin and Gant were in their 30s. Deion was traded to the Giants in July, and he only posted a .621 OPS in 144 PAs for the Reds.
By contrast, this team has several hitters who are not yet arbitration eligible yet, including Elly, McLain (aka McClain), CES, Friedl, and Steer.
The pitching staff is similar. Pete Schoureck was the best pitcher in 1995, and he was not yet arbitration eligible. Smiley, Jackson and Brantley were good, but they also were at least 30. Rijo went 5-4 with a 4.17 ERA in his last real season with the Reds, going down with an injury that I had forgotten about but he still drew $12.3 million from the Reds over the next two seasons, without pitching. Xavier Hernandez had a negative WAR. Smiley was the only one of the higher-paid pitchers to get a start in the NLCS.
This year’s rotation is stocked with younger pitchers, including Greene (25), Abbott (26), Lodolo (27) and Lowder (23), with Petty and Burns (both 22) waiting in the wings.
This team is much younger, and therefore much less expensive. The 1995 team got to the NLCS and got swept, and then cratered over the next 3 years, going 81-81 in 1996, 76-86 in 1997 and 77-85 in 1998. Barry Larkin was the only holdover in the starting lineup in 1999, when they got good again. The 1995 team was a team playing at the end of its “window,” and this team’s window is just now opening.
Most of us wanted a solid outfielder added to the team. Juan Soto was never going to sign here. Teoscar Hernandez clearly wanted to go back to LA. Santander is an option, still, but he has red flags all over him. Tyler O’Neill strikes out too much, which the Reds don’t need more of. Other than trading for Luis Robert, the Reds’ best options always were — and are now — to sign Randal Grichuk or Austin Hays as a corner outfielder.
Old Big Ed, I cannot argue any of your points. Great reply.
I think we both get to the same spot: Trade for Luis Robert. I think we see that yet this week. I really thought it would happen last week.
Perhaps with “avoiding” arbitration maneuvering ends this Thursday, that allows CIN to definitively determine how much budget that they have to work with. Penny pinching is an excuse though. The money is there.
Just as you pointed out after 1995, CIN could jetison any expensive players in July or the off-season too. Thus, I’m not worried about that. It’s the Moustakas moves we have to worry about.
@Michael –
Pretty hard to trade for a player when you don’t have inside knowledge of the true ask. Several analysts have suggested the ChiSox are asking for the moon, as if Robert is a healthy superstar. And why not from their perspective? He’s controlled for 3 more years and if he re-establishes his value in the first half of the year, they can probably get the moon at the deadline. They don’t want to sell low now.
And I doubt the Reds would want to pay what the ChiSox are said to be asking. I wouldn’t. There are other targets that would enhance the roster and have a better likelihood of being healthy.
That’s my understanding of the Robert situation, too, but I think the Reds are probably the best match for him. Of the contending teams that may need a CF upgrade, there are the Mets and Phillies, both of which are already above the luxury tax threshold. The Orioles may want to move on from Cedric Mullins, and Rangers from Leodys Taveras, but nothing is compelling them to do so. I could see the Astros as needing a CF, too.
A team could also trade for Robert as a right fielder, although he has yet to play there.
So, if the White Sox are asking for a haul, they are not likely to get it right now. And if they wait until the deadline, and Robert is having a lackluster season, then they will get even less.
Fantastic stuff Big Ed and MBG, thanks for sharing those figures. Puts it into even more perspective.
A team that has Gavin Lux taking ABs at DH, is not a team that I will take seriously. Proof that they have learned nothing from last year.
Lux slashed .304/.391/.508 after the All-Star break last year.
The Reds have about 8 guys who will take DH ABs next season.
Where is the power hitting outfielder????????? No one strikes fear in the lineup. EDLC strikes out too much to scare pitchers.
And teams with 8 guys taking at-bats at DH are always contenders! LOL
The pitchers do a good job of acting scared of him, then.
Lorenzo re-signed with the Royals for 7 million. Pretty reasonable deal for him just on the fact he’s a valuable swingman (with no hit stuff) Martinez is making triple his salary and they are pretty similar. But Lorenzon also has an intriguing bonus as a potential two way designation, he wouldn’t count as a pitcher meaning the Reds could have had 14 pitchers. Thats a big advantage. He would just need to start 20 games and get 60 plate appearances to qualify for two years as a hitter. So theoretically a team could have him DH for 3 weeks at the beginning of the season and then have 14 pitchers for two years. That’s not a big sacrifice considering his career ops is better than most backup catchers that get a lot more than 60 plate appearances and don’t provide even half the overall production he does.
Chase Burns voted second best pitching prospect in baseball executive poll.
https://www.mlb.com/news/front-office-executives-poll-for-top-prospects-2025?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-share
That’s surprising considering he hasn’t thrown a single professional pitch.
I hope that isn’t the reason he’s so highly regarded.
Yeah it’s strange to me but common to see a lot of prospects leap into the top of all these national and team lists over established two and three year guys. Personally I don’t think it makes sense to put basically high school and college prospects with projection and hype over professionals with experience.
Powder #1 for “pitchability.”
Lowder…
I am OK with this trade. The Reds didn’t give up much and received a solid major league hitter. Yes, they still need outfielders. Hopefully, they will address that need, at least to some degree, before opening day.
Just because they didn’t land the outfielder they desperately need in this trade, doesn’t make this trade a bad deal. The Reds are better today, than they were yesterday. At least IMO.
Gotta honestly ask ourselves, does this really improve the team? We can expect Lux to hit .250 with an OPS of .700ish and a handful of HRs and SBs. Not an improvement over India. I want to believe the Reds are better, but the reality is … how? I ain’t buying whatever the FO sells us.
I agree … that said, the RLN consensus seems to be that Lux will play 2B for the Reds. I think there’s a good chance he’ll be in the outfield.
His speed was down last year compared to 2022 after missing 2023 with an ACL tear. He’s still an above-average runner and may regain some speed following a more normal offseason. He was faster than Friedl in 2024 (although Friedl fought injuries) and comparable to Friedl’s 2023 speed.
The other knock on Lux is his arm, which Statcast shows as well below average. Keith Law indicates Lux’s arm challenges have more to do with accuracy than arm strength. So, Lux may be trading off max effort throws to gain accuracy, something he can probably do at 2B that would not work at SS or 3B. However, he may be able to tap into his full arm strength in the outfield, and he has some experience there. Further backing Law’s observation is that Lux had a “55” grade for his “Arm” as a prospect.
If we get Lux’s second-half performance in LF or CF, this trade becomes a win for the Reds. Steer would then move back to the infield, and Lux has been a better defensive outfielder to date. The Reds could play Steer at 2B (his best position, according to Statcast) and McLain at 3B. A 2008 Fangraph article indicates little difference in team value between 2B and 3B, meaning the Reds would benefit if McLain could handle 3B–a position he played in college.
This^ is my point … the signing just has everyone guessing where all of these natural infielders fit (and hoping they can hit for a full season) rather than putting some real chips out there to acquire an everyday middle-of-the-order outfielder.
I view this as an opportunity to view things from a strengths-based approach. In this, defining what are both the team’s strengths and individual strengths.
Defensively, the best short stop is EDLC. McLain has deferred to Elly, as he should.
McLain is likely the best defensive 2B, having the hands and actions of a short stop on the other side of the keystone.
I am surmising Lux would be the next best 2B. While I cannot rule Steer out, I don’t have enough data or eyes-on information to elevate him over Lux.
Espinal is a very good short stop and 2B (in addition to 3B), but he is strictly a reserve.
So, for the strongest defensive middle infield, it is EDLC/McLain, with Lux starting in lieu of McLain when he sits, ie against RH like Paul Skenes.
In this, Lux defers to McLain who defers to Elly. Now the question is, where does Lux get 550-600 at bats.
The answer would seem to be LF, as Lux is a better outfielder than Steer and, offensively, certainly has an advantage against RH pitching. So Steer defers to Lux in LF.
Steer is a very good defender at 1B, while CES, I believe is also, though not quite proven yet, to no fault of his own. CES defers to Steer and works his way back via DH and spot starts (or AAA).
Candelario plays 3B while Marte defers (AAA). Friedl plays CF, spelled by Fairchild (as now standing), and RF is still a mess (Fraley, Benson, Fairchild, Dunn).
Where the rotations off of our best defensive profiles occur are vs. very unfavorable matchups offensively, ie Lux vs. Sale or Fried. So Lux defers offensively to Steer which opens a place for CES.
What all of this thinking does is provide opportunities cities for our best defensive team and *select* switching and offensive matchup rotations, as in the past several years.
We CAN move McLain off of 2B to CF or 3B, but should we? He is arguably our second best middle infielder as well as offensive player. Using a strengths based approach, we should play to McLain at 2B as both an individual and more importantly a team strength.
Don’t move EDLC also means don’t move Matt McLain.
Yikes, this paragraph is a mess.
What all of this thinking does is provide opportunities for our best defensive team and *select* switching and offensive matchup rotations, unlike the past several years.
Mmm … k. Like I said earlier, they just added to the confusion. Francona has his work cut out.
Dave, very well articulated. I’d see it much the same.
Now acquire a RHH RFer that can relieve the mess & send Benson back to louisville where he can room with Marte. They can have late night discussions of how they blew it and how to get it back.
“If we get Lux’s second-half performance in LF or CF . . .” he’ll be getting second-level MVP votes and the Reds will be a wild-card team. If they get close to his full season average numbers, the Reds will have added a MLB hitter to the roster, probably a bit better than India, and bump Fairchild and Benson, respectively, down a roster slot.
@Dave, 2B is not a premium position, and McLain is a premium defender.
If we all agree that EDLC is the SS, and it’s been said pretty clearly, then once McLain defers to EDLC at SS, CF is the next most impactful position for him. McLain also has history there, so he’s not learning a new position.
Lux has spent 75% of his time as a 2B, and by all accounts he’s a pretty good one. His arm plays at 3B.
Friedl isn’t a bad CF, but he’s not elite. His arm also plays better in LF.
I like this scenario because it puts premium players at SS, CF, and C, and that’s something most teams can’t say.
The problem is 3B, and 1B. CES, Steer, and Candelario could all play either position, but none are standouts at either spot.
MBS, 2B is a premier position defensively, which is why teams will sacrifice offense to get a good defender there (hence the perception you refer to that 2B isn’t a premium position — the frequent lack of offense). This is especially true since The Shift was banned, as 2B have to have range to cob=ver the right side, hands and the agility to turn the DP.
Having elite middle infield defense is critical, especially to good pitching, and even more so to ground ball pitching as is beneficial at GABP; having elite middle infield defense with high level offense is a great strength, which is the purpose of the post, looking at things in a different way as opposed to the mixing and matching of the past several seasons. Or, worse, making more arbitrary moves based on patchwork quilting.
Further, there is zero evidence McLain is a better CF than Friedl, other than anecdotes from his amateur days or his volunteering to play OF in AZ in order to get at bats. What we know is that Friedl has good to very good range, good to very good fielding ability and that he has an average arm. To supplant him without evidence is arbitrary and possibly a fallacy that has gained speculation online and little more — it was said today that McLain is the 2B with Lux getting looks all over with a utility or hybrid role in mind.
It’s a parallel argument to that of moving EDLC off of shortstop. Why weaken one elite position in order have two average positions. Why not just leave well enough alone, keep an elite position and have just one weaker position? Championships are built upon having more elite positions than the other guys.
@Dave, All 9 spots on the field are important, so I’m not trying to diminish 2B. I am just going with the commonly agreed upon set of premium positions, C, SS, CF.
Right now, were just speculating on the plan for the Reds. None of us can say what the plan is. The fact that the Reds have been tied to so many 2B’s like Kim, Torres, and now they have acquired one in Lux makes me think the Reds are indeed planning on moving McLain to the OF.
I haven’t said that McLain is a better defender in CF than Friedl. I said McLain is a premium player. His draft status, and his time in the MILB, and MLB have all been “premium”. At this point we don’t know who’s a better fielding CF, but I think the Reds liked what they saw in the AFL. I think we’ll see McLain and Friedl battling for the CF position this spring.
If I’m right about McLain, then we have Lux who has already proven to be a good 2B, and he’s controllable for 2 seasons.
Hes fine but not the final piece we need. Hes combo of skip schumacher scooter gennett and kevin newman. Guys like him help your team but no in way does this move set us up for good
He’s not the final piece, but there is a huge gap between those 3 examples – he’s like one of them, but not the others, and probably better than that one.
I have a few thoughts: First, I think they still need a mashing outfielder… somehow someway to be the division favorite. I am not against trading one of Lowder or Burns plus others to get an all star level outfielder with two or maybe three years of control.
Second, there is hope for better years from Candy, CES, Marte, Friedl, and even Benson… and there is hope for better health all around, but especially McLain. Improvement from Steer, Stephenson, and even ELDC could happen. Take out India… throw in Lux, and this team can have a good to very good offensive year if everything goes right.
I’d still rather have that outfield all star for Burns to come closer to ensuring a good year.
I think the pitching will be good again.
Lot of ifs. The mashing outfielder has been a need since 2023. Everyone in baseball wonders why it still hasn’t been addressed.
Every team in baseball with a payroll under $160M has a lot of Ifs, and many over that too.
With all due respect, let’s please stop blaming payroll for 30 years of winless postseasons. The Brewers, Tigers, Orioles, and Guardians all entered 2024 with a lower payroll than the Reds. They found ways to win rather than entering the season ready to pull out the payroll excuse.
Yup. It’s not about the money. There are other ways of building teams other than free agency. Trades, draft, international market. Reds haven’t won in 30 years because they don’t do well in those categories. Not because they don’t have big market money.
@Johnny, I agree that the Reds can’t blame payroll for the last 30 years of losing–there have certainly been many poor decisions along the way. However, each of the franchises you mentioned gets its share of criticism for their spending by their fanbases and national baseball journalists.
You’re missing the simple point: They all made the postseason in 2024. That’s how you get a fan base to stop complaining.
This trade has me completely…..whelmed. On net, I guess the numbers work out, but all this moving players out of position to accommodate slightly above average bats hasn’t seemed to be working the past few years, and it’s driving me up the wall of fandom. Course, you can only buy from what’s on the shelf, so to speak.
Frankly, after Soto, this year’s OF FA class was pretty weak. Hernandez clearly wanted to stay in LA, everybody else has serious red flags, e.g. Santander’s OBP, that don’t mesh well with their contract expectations. The second tier aren’t as headline grabbing, but (as many others have mentioned) perhaps a Hays or a Grichuk is the last piece, and that would probably be as much as we could hope for.
The reality is that while the IF seems crowded now, this year will probably work out like last year, and either injuries or underperformance will sort the situation sooner rather than later.
Fingers crossed for a big bounce back year from Jake Fraley and CES. Combine that with a slight improvement from Steer, and all this talk about where the power will come from will have been forgotten by May. If not, well….. the usual.
I think the Reds made a good trade. Lux will be one of the regular players. It is another step in the right direction. I like McClain at 2B on most days. Lux can play 2B, OF, and DH. I understand he can also play SS and 3B, but do not expect that much with the Reds. He is a capable MLB hitter who I would bat about 8th in the Reds lineup unless he gets hot. I think the team will be competitive. Hope they add one more outfielder, but may not happen.
So we’re not getting Justin Verlander … 😉
Outside the unlikely chance of a trade for a power OF bat (and big $), I think either Profar (RH) or Grichuk (SH) are the only 2 players the Reds could sign ($6M/2 yr.?) and give us a solid +2 WAR OF to play every day or platoon with a LH OF. Don’t underestimate the solid contributions & utility Steer brings to the team. Reds were only 25 HR from 5th in NL. Some bounce back numbers from Fraley/Friedl/CES/Candy/McL and FA’s mentioned, could put us in the hunt.
I know we still need a better outfielder – which in my opinion just doesn’t exist at the money and/or prospects we have to offer.
That said, I will hand it to Nick Krall and the front office for getting creative with what they’re budgeted.
1) they knew they had to stabilize the rotation that for 2 years in a row used guys even us prospect huggers hadn’t even hear of to start MLB games. They did this by locking up Nick Martinez who is a solid starting pitcher.
2) they improved the reliability of a starting staff that has been known to lack durability by signing a guy known for his record of reliability (singer ). And did this by keeping payroll almost neutral and trading redundancy (India).
3) they got a quality backup catcher (starter on many teams) by trading what had become a middle inning reliever for us. And again at a budget neutral price.
4) and now got a quality, 27 year old utility player who may not have even peaked yet for the price of a couple prospects who in the best case scenario wouldn’t have impacted the mlb club until 2027. And again at a very marginal (2.7M$) cost.
I do think someone else is getting traded before March and more moves (right field & bullpen) are needed but I give the front office a lot of credit. Ownership gives them basically nothing and they still manage to add 4 quality players to the roster without giving up much of anything we need at present or future.
Come on Castellinis – give these guys more to work with!
Mediocrity is the bar in the Krall era. You can use all the saber metric abbreviations you want but Lux is a .250 hitter who will hit 10-15 honers. The Reds have never had a problem finding those kind of guys. Nick Krall now has his fingerprints all over this organization from a talent perspective. They are average at best and the farm system is average as well. Candelerio will get the analytic arguments going but just watch him play last year and use your eyeballs. He looked 45 years old playing first base at times, maybe he was injured? Starting pitching seems decent but the bullpen will have the same question marks as every year. Hope is a not a strategy.
Yeah I don’t think he’s better than Rodgers who I forgot was nontendered. Rodgers is definitely a better defender and pretty similar with the bat. Reds could have picked him up without trading Sirota and the draft pick.
Who is Rodgers?
nvm
Ty France?
Brendan Rodgers career 73 OPS+ away from Coors field. He loves Denver. He’s not a MLBer anywhere else though.
@Justin, “Mediocrity is the bar in the Krall era” That was his promise if you remember.
“We’re trying to eliminate peaks and valleys, that’s where we need to go,”
I don’t think he really meant we are going to shoot for a .500 club, but that is sort of what it sounded like to my ears.
He went on to elaborate,
“We need to figure out how to continue to build through our player pipeline, player development and scouting. That’s got to be the base of everything we do. If that’s the base, that’s how we’ll build long-term success and sustainable success.”
He’s right that the Reds can’t spend their way to the WS on a consistent basis, but I still want a club that’s willing to try to buy a bit of success.
Since last offeason
Nick Martinez $35M
Candelario $45M
Pagan $16M
Montas $14M
It’s not spectacular, but it’s also not nothing. I suspect (hope) there will be a signing still before ST.
No it’s not nothing. My problem was when we were good, 2023, and had a real shot at the playoff we only traded for Moll. He’s good, but he wasn’t enough to help the club to make the playoffs. They should have made some deals.
In 2024 they thought they could build on the previous year’s success and went with mid to low tier FA’s to fill the gaps. That might have worked if we were a lot healthier, but we weren’t.
2025 we still have a lot of young guys who have to prove they are ready to be consistently good MLBers.
We always have to live in the future with the Reds, but when this team adds the ones who make it out of Burns, Petty, Mey, Maxwell, Arroyo, Collier, Stewart by sometime in 2026 I think they need to spend real $$$$ to give them a real shot of making a run in the playoffs.
I agree the trade deadlines have been a miss with Krall.
2023 for sure. Moll was good but we needed more help than that.
2024 I thought the miss was not acquiring Jazz Chisholm at the deadline. It would have cost a bit in prospects but that is a risk you take with a guy like that. Chisholm would have fit nicely on this team.
MBS – The Reds lost 100 games in 2022. At the trading deadline in 2023, Hunter Greene was on the IL. Nick Lodolo was on the IL. Andrew Abbott was hitting the wall and his numbers started plummeting. SEVENTEEN pitchers started a game for the Reds in 2023 and the Reds were finding pitching in the independent leagues.
On the position side, Stuart Fairchild had just returned from the IL to man LF with his 89 OPS+. Nick Senzel was our 3Bman with his 84 OPS+. Tyler Stephenson was struggling to an 85 OPS+.
The Reds needed at least two frontline starting pitchers and a couple of starting position players to actually compete in the playoffs should they have made the playoffs. HAD they made the playoffs they would’ve gotten smoked and we would be looking back fondly at the Reds’ 2020 playoff performance.
It was WAY too early to mortgage the future just for the bragging rights of saying that they “made the playoffs”.
Mortgage the future with what? They literally had like 10 good infield prospects with nowhere to play for the next five years.
I tend to agree with Earmbrister.
“They literally had like 10 good infield prospects with nowhere to play for the next five years.”
By the opening day of the 2024 season, injuries had left the Reds short of position players–there were positions to play. Nearly the entire discussion since the start of 2024 has been about acquiring improved bats. The bevy of Reds infielders were just arriving in the majors and had not been challenged to make adjustments at that point. Sure, that’s how many felt at the 2023 trade deadline, but that argument doesn’t look too strong in hindsight.
Additionally, many of the prospects I’m assuming you are referring to were in the lower minors–teams tend not to build trade packages around those types of players.
The 10 infield prospects was made up of like 9 guys who were nowhere near ready to help in 2024 or 2025. You could have traded them and never even remembered who they were for like 3-4 years.
@Erm, Baseball doesn’t care about your plans. You have to take the opportunities that presents themselves.
After all the reasons you listed on why we shouldn’t have tried to make a trade the point still remains that we missed the playoffs by 2 games.
It was an opportunity wasted, and a bad message to the players that the team isn’t focused on winning.
Also, those prospects of the future are just that, prospective players. Most don’t pan out.
Everyone here complained to no end about giving up Gray, and Downs to LA. Downs -0.6 Career WAR, Gray has spent part of 4 MLB seasons as a MLBer with a 2.8 Career War. He’s had one season that most of us would like to see from our 3rd or 4th pitcher, and no others that we’d want to see on any pitcher in our rotation.
I agree that Candelario appeared stiff at times last season. He did have patellar tendonitis, which is somewhat like plantar fasciitis, in that both take a long time to heal, and both make it very difficult for a player just to power through it.
So, he could be better, but I am also skeptical.
Lux was deemed to be the top prospect in baseball about 3 years ago. He hasn’t met that expectation, losing a full year to a bad knee injury, but he did lead the NL in triples in 2022 at age 24. He recovered very nicely in the second half last season, slashing .304/.391/.508 after the All Star break. He shows pulling the ball or going to CF 85% of the time, so GABP may fit him well.
I think Lux will have a good offensive year, but who really knows? You see guys like Jurickson Profar last year have excellent seasons out of the blue, and guys like Khris Davis hit 40+ homers/year from age 28 to 30, only to hit 31 more HRs the rest of his career. (I raise Davis because he is the #1 comp on Baseball Reference for Santander.)
Its a matter of being proactive creative and thinking 5 moves ahead. We are CURSED as cincinnati fans cause neither the reds or bengals operate that way. Its one plodding unimaginative move at a time. When its our turn to draft they pick. When its free agency they overpay for candles or sheldon rankins. When we need a trade to put us over the top its gavin lux or khali herbert. A new coach to infuse life they get nepitism shulas or bells .Rarely a splash and never a tier one blockbuster. Im convinced often times this group runs fantasy rosters better than our management runs real teams. Were cursed in that way
Well said Anthony. The days of making trades for players like Joe Morgan, Tom Seaver and Dave Parker are gone. Those players were difference makers. I fear the owners of our professional teams are satisfied with being good enough rather than being the best.
I know Elly wants to play SS. I think he could be a great shortstop but what is best for the lineup with this personnel is to move Elly to 3rd, play McClain at SS, and have Lux at 2nd. Then you can play CES/Candy at first. Unless any other moves ae made not using this alignment is only pandering to players.
Why is that necessarily better than McLain at 3rd and Elly remaining at SS?
The only two options for Elly are SS or CF, no other positions utitlize his speed AND arm in the same way. So if he moves off SS, then CF or bust. I expect him to stay at SS unless he starts booting easy plays. Quite a few SS in baseball history became CF, a couple of Reds stars from 80s and 90s did so of course. Chipper Jones moved from SS to RF I think it was.
Chipper Jones moved from SS to 3B and became a HoF player.
Having said that, I don’t think moving Elly off of SS is a good idea. He makes his share of mistakes but he also gets to balls and turns those balls into outs, in situations where other SS very rarely can. His range and arm are outstanding. I agree that CF would be the only other place he should play but I like him at SS.