To stand on Crosley Terrace in the wee hours of the morning is to see Ted Kluszewski, Ernie Lombardi, Joe Nuxhall and Frank Robinson frozen in time. Like four of the Great Eight players standing as silent sentinels on the periphery, they represent what has been best about the Cincinnati Reds throughout their long and storied history. To a large degree, they also represent winning. If those statues could speak, they’d likely tell us winning is a product of baseball players doing special things on the field of play. Despite the admiration for Sparky Anderson, Lou Pinella, Fred Hutchinson, and Bill McKechnie, none of those men have graven images gracing the entrance to Great American Ball Park.
There’s a reason for that.
The logic of Occam’s razor fits here, the admonition that the simplest explanation is often the correct one. Players win baseball games, not managers. Simple, huh? No matter how much we attempt to cloud this issue with faulty reasoning about baseball fundamentals, allergies to analytics, assumptions about clubhouse culture and postgame charisma, it’s too often personal bias to buttress a poor argument that carries the day with many fans and too many in the local media.
David Bell was fired as manager of the Reds because blame has to be assigned for the losing—and the people doing the firing never blame themselves. Sparky Anderson was fired long before his expiration date arrived, as any fan of the 1984 Detroit Tigers can tell you.
Mention the injuries—and you’re often greeted with the lazy retort that “all teams have injuries,” and “David Bell has had six years to build a winner,” all of which is oblivious to the fact that Reds ownership has spent the better part of a decade blowing up rosters and betting all on prospects, including—but not limited to—the chaotic period of COVID, which has had significant “aligning payroll with resources” implications ever since. What that has meant is no significant signings to supplement young and inconsistent talent, no one of substance to provide depth, opening the door to those “Bell doesn’t stress fundamentals” cries, as if any manager has ever turned Nick Castellanos or Edwin Encarnacion into players who didn’t field as if their gloves were procured in a nearby junkyard.
The “Bell loses one-run games” argument belies the fact that one-run outcomes are not predictive as proven historically over and over again. It does, however, provide the opportunity to second-guess every walk to the mound the manager made despite the fact that the Reds bullpen is 8th in baseball WAR and the entire staff 7th overall.
While some are celebrating the savvy use of the platoon system by the Detroit Tigers, who have the best record of all American League teams since July 1, Bell has been excoriated for attempting to match up using the “not ready for prime time” players that have been dealt to him by ownership, and to a lesser extent, Krall:
https://x.com/MLBNow/status/1838307850864476443
Fangraphs says the Reds ranking for base running runs above average has stood at the best or second best in baseball for most of the summer. According to Baseball Reference, they had the fewest opportunities in baseball to steal because the offense was so bereft of base runners, necessitating an aggressive approach, an approach that has resulted in an 83% success rate, a percentage bested by only 3 teams in baseball. The response is crickets. The cognitive dissonance would be stunning if it wasn’t so predictable.
Which brings us to Nick Krall’s sorry press conference with the media the morning after. While he insisted the decision to relieve Bell of his duties was his own, it’s difficult to believe that Castellini fingerprints were not all over this decision based on the family’s historical record of meddling. And one gets the feeling that the controversy over base running was one of the philosophical differences that led to the summer of our discontent.
But, we no longer live in the 1970s. We’re no longer listening rapt to the rock opera Tommy. Gone are the days of dictatorial managers like Leo Durocher, Billy Martin, Earl Weaver and that other Tommy, Lasorda. Roster construction, lineups and strategy are all now top-down driven, with front offices often having the final say.
When Bell was hired, he made it clear he wanted his office near the decision-makers in an effort to create a more collaborative and symbiotic environment. The idea being pushed by Krall that Bell’s on field decisions, his base running strategy, penciling Noelvi Marte and Will Benson onto the lineup card on a daily basis wasn’t part of the front office plan all along just doesn’t scan.
And if Krall is indifferent to some of the analytics, it might not be such a surprise given the turnabout of philosophy and sudden departure of Kyle Boddy and others not all that long ago. And if old school guy Barry Larkin is given the crown in a few weeks, well …
Krall and Reds decision-makers would do well to look at the sudden collapse of the Chicago White Sox. While heralded players who never developed played a part, there is this:
“Injuries certainly played a role. But in the winter of 2021-22, the club failed to supplement a roster fresh off a 93-win season. Rodón left in free agency. The team’s biggest signing was a three-year deal for reliever Kendall Graveman. Team owner Jerry Reinsdorf kept his pocketbook clasped shut, and the 2022 Sox won 81 games.”
If no other number sways the fan base, this one should: $104M. It can be done with a paltry payroll, but it requires considerable depth and more than a dollop of good luck.
Bringing in a new voice was always the bugle call when all other arguments for change fell short. But knowing where that voice originated was always key. It always comes from the top.
Whoever was truly behind the removal of David Bell, the fact remains that by his remarks, Nick Krall now owns this. He has sold the pasture to buy the horse and he will have to saddle up and ride with the consequences going forward.
Those who wanted David Bell’s head on a pike to parade around, finally got their wish. They should remember, we are all being played once more by an ownership that thought they could get away with firing a manager that months ago they were oh so sure was worth a 3-year contract extension, and doing it on an NFL Sunday night, when they were convinced the locals would be easily distracted from their buffoonery by using the NFL shield as their own personal shield while Cincinnati fans would almost certainly be fixated on the rival Kansas City Chiefs on one night and the organization at the other end of Mehring Way on Monday Night Football the next.
The Castellini regime reminds one of the magician who claims he can saw a woman in half. You just won’t care to look in the box when they are through.
If your point is that the ownership is the main cause of Reds failures you won’t get any arguments from me. David Bell did need to go though. There’s virtually no doubt in my mind about that. I suspect Krall is on the hot seat too.
+500
With new ‘leadership’ emerging at the top of the ownership pyramid, I doubt Krall’s position is too secure.
Why does every one of these articles defending David Bell today – a surprising number, in fact – presume that fans don’t know the Castellinis and Nick Krall are to blame too? “Ha ha!” these articles seem to say. “When the Reds suck next year too, we’ll have really shown you! Stupid, pitchfork-wielding fans.”
David Bell is a bad manager. Nick Krall is a bad GM. The Castellinis are horrible owners. Does this mean fans are wrong to want a new voice in the clubhouse, after 6 years? We know we can’t change the management and they’re not going to change themselves. Cant we at least hold out a sliver of hope for a Marvin-Lewis-meets-Mike-Brown kind of turnaround? Or should we have been wishing the kept Dick LeBeau or Dave Shula as head coach, too?
+500
+501
Dittos!!
People do mention ownership and Krall, but in passing. The unceasing litany of complaint has always been directed at Bell, probably because you don’t have to scratch any fan very deeply to find a wannabe manager. What bothers me most deeply about the Reds of the past few years is the number of injuries and their lack of resilience in dealing with them by having or acquiring quality depth. The poor defensive play this year has bothered me, too, and some of that might reasonably be blamed on the manager, but not all of it. The firing of Bell was inevitable because it distracts everyone from examining what’s left. But the distraction will be temporary unless the new manager has fewer injuries to deal with, growth and development of young players and key additions of good players. All of these things are largely beyond the control of the manager, but the new manager will take the lion’s share of the blame if the improvements don’t materialize.
Yup.
Absolutely, some things are beyond the manager’s control. That’s not the issue. The issue is how he handled those things within his control. And on that basis, he failed. It’s as simple as that. The apologists, the excuse makers, the writers, etc. are simply denying reality with cliches like the manager doesn’t matter, it’s the roster, it’s the injuries. None of those accurate. Yes, they are issues. He wasn’t fired for what he couldn’t control. He was fired for those things he could. Krall said that, poorly perhaps, but he did say it.
Oh good grief, LDS. That’s your opinion. You may even be right, but your supporting evidence–his managerial record–is not clear evidence of incompetence on his or any other manager’s part. I could trot out a bunch of clever similes, but I’ll leave it at this: over the years you and I have had this conversation frequently, and when I ask you to identify a manager who had a weak roster–weak, not weaker than his WS opponent– who won the WS you don’t answer. Bell has had some rosters with a fair amount of talent but also serious flaws–the bullpens and injuries to key players–and has finished above .500. Other years he’s had weaker rosters and has not finished above .500. My guess is that he has strengths and weaknesses as a manager and is probably still learning the trade. My other guess is that his replacement will, in fairly short order, become the whipping boy for many of those who comment here unless the Reds find more talent and win consistently.
A quick addendum: the roster and the injuries don’t matter?? Really?
Again, he wasn’t fired for his record, though he should have been. He was fired for in game performance, beyond W/L, at least that’s what Krall’s comments sounded like to me.
Good grief, Part Deux.
First of all, LDS, labeling others as “The apologists, the excuse makers, the writers, etc.” is borderline offensive. And it isn’t reciprocated, either. For example, I do not ever see posters here labeling the Bell bashers as something like ‘wannabe’s’ or ‘arm chair managers,’ or having Bell Derangement Syndrome, as I’ve seen elsewhere.. It’s easy enough to type. But no one does. Labeling is name calling.
Second, those of us with a broader point of view, are not “simply denying reality with cliches like the manager doesn’t matter, it’s the roster, it’s the injuries. None of those accurate.”
Fact: ALL of these are accurate — you just disagree and, honestly, have an agenda. This year’s injuries absolutely gutted the team. Four positional starters went missing at the start of the season, for extended times. It has been pointed out that injuries impact teams from different sized markets in very different ways. Who in Cincinnati would not appreciate having the Dodgers or Yankees resources? To say differently is disingenuous and misleading. And, the roster? Nick Martini, Mike Ford, Levi Jordan, Edwin Rios, Connor Capel, Austen Slater, Dom Smith, Livan Soto, Bubba Thompson, etc? The roster doesn’t matter? That’s incorrect. While you do acknowledge, yes, they are issues, you’ve also contradicted yourself with the above.
There’s an old expression in politics, “It’s the economy, stupid.” Well, in the case of the Cincinnati Reds, “It’s the ownership, Reds fans.” David Bell is (was) a symptom of a poorly run organization. Poorly funded, poorly administered, poorly operated, poorly planned — you name it. And, yes, poorly managed on the field.
In fairness, I do appreciate your delineation between what Bell could and could not control. That’s probably THE key point of his failures for the entire season, and far more so than the list of criticisms re: lineups, bullpen usage, etc., etc., etc. Kudos.
I really just do not like being labelled an apologist or excuse maker, which are negatives in my book, for posting broader points of view. That’s it, really.
+1000
+1000000
One run games do matter though. Reds did well last year. In the playoff chase till next to last day of season. This year terribly one loss record and 4 or5 games under 500. I think they go hand in hand. I can think of 3 games that was lost because of mis management of the bullpen and being thrown out on the base paths truly unacceptable when it happens over and over.
Good article though as it does highlight Krall and upper management are truly the bigger issue.
The Reds in 2023 did well in one run games and were superlative in come from behind games. Same manager.
Yes, one run games matter. They are just not predictive. I wish more fans would at least dig into this enough to recognize history and how baseball functions.
Instead, it’s “India got thrown out on a pickoff move and the Reds ended up losing by a run. Fire David Bell.”
No one wants to even consider that India likely would have died at first base because the Reds collectively hit .233 and get on base at a paltry .307 and slug under .400. No one wants to admit their SB success rate and ability to stay out of the double play might have mitigated some of this horrible offense.
But, I get it. Facts today are in the eye of the beholder. If you don’t like them, if they don’t agree with what you’ve been harping on all season, then fie on them.
Richard, I think most Refs’ fans are disgusted with what the Castellinis have done to thus franchise. That doesn’t change the fact that David Bell was not a good manager. I feel your article is imbalanced because you focus only on the ownership.
What happens on the field is the control of the manager. He knew ownership and the front office limitations. If he didn’t like it then don’t take the job. We know the ownership group stinks, unfortunately that’s not changing. He had 6 years and he failed. His lineups, the poor base running mistakes, mismanaging the bullpen and refusing to take Diaz out of the closer role, never bunts runners over when he knows half the team cant make contact, sending runners home on contact when no matter who is running. I could go on forever, these are bells decisions not Kralls. They need a new voice period.
And how many games were won because of aggressive baserunning or good bullpen management?
Personally, I haven’t totally ruled out blaming Connor Stalions.
+1000 😉
The extra +500 is for using a college football reference instead of a professional football reference. Many, perhaps approaching most(??), of the regulars here that mention football allegiances mention CFB ahead of professional ones. 😉
Comment of the day!!!
Firing Sparky Anderson was one of the main mistakes on ending the Big Red Machine. David Bell didn’t win any world series. Probably never had the players. A winning manager needs good players. The Reds have not been that team. Someone will take the job. Ownership/management will need do a better job or the next manager will also be fired in time. Just a recount of recent history.
Bob Howsam retiring after 1977 was another. He came back in 1983 to fix the mess created by Dick Wagner. He signed Dave Parker as FA, still the best FA ever signed by the Reds more than 40 years later. He brought back Pete Rose to manage and play 1B in his twilight years. He brought back Tony Perez to come off the bench and platoon at 1B. He set the tone for a relatively successful mid 1980s.
The Reds were pretty good in 1979-80-81. Arguably they would have been better under Sparky but McNamara was no slouch. He managed Red Sox into WS in 1986.
He has had young exciting rosters (2023), he has had veteran rosters 2020-21), he has had a Cy Young winner in 2020, he a a couple years of prime Votto. His staff in 2020 was fantastic and had Votto, Winker and Castellanos in the lineup everyday. He had an all star closer. I watched him run the Hembrees and Stricklands out there to blow games night after night without ever pivoting.
We all watched this current young team play undisciplined baseball night after night while making the same mistakes 3 times a week. I watched him give Benson 340 at bats this year hitting .188. What is it about hitting under .200 with a 40% k rate that says “play me every night”?
Bell was uniquely bad. He could turn a close, winnable game into a 4 run loss at the snap of a finger. What made him elite at it was his ability to do the same thing the next night.
I watched Krall at his press conference and he looked like someone who has had enough of watching Bell manage. I was waiting on him to answer a question with, “Didnt you guys watch him manage too?” a couple times. The postgame interviews were brutal and made one wonder if he didn’t sometimes live in an alternative reality. Some even argued he was possibly more assertive and demanding behind closed doors. Come on. He was a bad hire by a bad front office. They finally cut bait.
The guy was not good at managing a big league club by absolutely any metric or KPI you can invent.
You did a fine job inventing a history of David Bell. Kudos.
I would quibble a bit. Exciting rookies in 2023 who largely didn’t come up until June, then faded as major league teams adjusted, particularly ELDC and CES?
A Cy Young winner who pitched all of 11 games?
A couple of years of prime Votto? Seriously?
Heath Hembree? Because you wanted Sean Doolittle or Lucas Sims or Amir Garrett out there with his 6+ ERA?
This bit of very subjective commentary was instructive:
“Bell was uniquely bad. He could turn a close, winnable game into a 4 run loss at the snap of a finger. What made him elite at it was his ability to do the same thing the next night. ”
Again, kudos for the spin.
@Richard Fitch, No one is inventing history of David Bell. That’s insulting especially coming from a guy who clearly has baseball goggles on when it comes to Bell. In fact if anyone is making things up it’s you. Please explain how CES faded in 2023. To the contrary he was a force that only got better. The 2020 team was loaded, and Bell could barely get them into the playoffs. No Votto didn’t have a couple of years, but he did have an amazing year in 2021. You backed Bell’s use of Hembree due to not wanting to use Doolittle; you forget that he used Doolittle forever before he was finally dumped. I don’t know how any true baseball fan could watch a Bell managed team and defend him. Mindboggling.
@richard Yes, the Cy Young was given in the abbreviated season. It still means that he was the best pitcher in the league that season. Its relative right? The best pitcher in the league was on David Bells pitching staff in 2020 as voted by the baseball writers. So was Luis Castillo. So was Sonny Gray. I guess it doesnt fit in your “he didnt have enough good players” narrative? Because if we dont count the abbreviated season, he never made the postseason either. I wont even mention the postseason performance his team put on.
He also had the rookie of the year in 2021, but I digress.
Let’s jump to 2021. 3 guys hit 30 homers along with India’s terrific season. Both Castellanos and Winker both finished over .300. The staff had Miley, Castillo, Gray and Mahle. Sounds like a decent enough team right? He handed the ball to Heath Hembree 45 times and he rewarded him with a 6.38 ERA and gave up 10 homers in 42 innings while acting as the team’s closer. Yes, the other names you mentioned all would’ve been better options if statistics are the guide here. Night after night he handed him the ball in high leverage situations. Is that Nick Krall’s fault?
I do not have to spin anything when it comes to David Bell, his record should do that for me. This is a results based business they are in right? I watch the games, Ive formed my own opinion from watching those games. The guy did not produce enough wins. Whats the David Bell way? In 6 years can you describe his style of baseball? Inconsistent is my description.
I’ll ask you Richard, do you think David Bell did a good job? Did he deserve a 7th try?
Diaz didn’t pitch for the Reds until 2022. The 21 team had one of the worst pens in baseball.
Yeah. I think given what David Bell had to work with, he did a commendable job. He kept this team together, playing hard and close to .500 as recently as a few days ago. When Greene, Lodolo and Abbott all went on the IL after all the other injuries, I thought this team would collapse. Instead, they kept fighting, taking the series on the road from the Twins and sweeping the Astros.
Bell’s style was necessitated by the players he had. That often meant platooning to match up players skills with the opponent in the moment to get the most out of a given situation. It meant openers. It meant a lot of things traditionalists and eye test fans won’t consider as viable tactics, but which results prove otherwise.
Yeah, let’s talk 2021. On offense, they were 19th in WAR. 14th in wRC+. They were basically average or slightly below average. Their pitching was 9th in total WAR, but 20th in ERA and 19th in FIP.
And get this: the bullpen was 19th in WAR. 27th in ERA. 25th in FIP. Hembree was out there because the seven other pitchers out their with the most IP had ERAs over 4.40, except TJ Antone, who had Tommy John surgery.
Again, despite all the player name dropping and that ridiculous CY Young comment, this is more spin. So in the end you’re left with insisting this is a results based business, which is about removing all context from your argument, which I completely understand given how specious it is.
You’re quite a spin master yourself, Richard.
Justin T – Good on you sir. You summed it up, then backed it up.
Some people think you have to have an all star at every position just to win. That’s just not feasible. Good managers take what they have and elevate them. And after that, you have to take the next step. If Bell ever took 1 step forward, it was always followed by 2 steps back, which is exactly what 2024 was.
@JustinT, Agree 100%
@Richard, you probably shouldn’t write an article like this. It is clear you can not handle people disagreeing with you. Ownership sucks, Bell sucked, fans are pissed over 30 years of essential ineptitude. Stop trying to defend any one piece of it. Ownership, front office, manager, players. If anybody brings up a yeah but they were decent in…..I will pull the forever yeet on this site. Doug won’t like that I am here at least twice daily to click and read. Richard, it was a poor take imho, and most others. Let it go, move on.
Reds have mediocre talent before all the injuries and their record shows exactly that. The problem is Reds FO and fans had misguided high expectation for 2024 based on 2023 result. Expecting to win the division? There’s not enough beer in Milwaukee to get half of the Brewers players drunk the whole season. When result does not meet expectation, manager is first one to go. Given the many good teams NL has, Reds have to spend money in order to contend next season. A new coach alone won’t be enough.
A new manager will not automaticly mean a winning playoff team, but without change we’ll never know.
This comment is the best one in this thread! Everyone else wants people to see how smart/dumb they are.
Most knew that 2024 with the same manager making the same mistakes, would not bring a division winner.
Yeah, and we knew 2025 would be the same.
Krall, will now have to add some talented players to enrich our roster. Plus, give his new Mgr a better roster to quantify the change from a perceptive view. A win, win for us. Let’s hope that it’s an outsider.
Kudos. The Reds will not win the Division or 90+ games in 2025 without an influx of talent. Some fans want to ignore the data that this is the 26th ranked offense in mlb. We have 230 hitters batting in the middle of the order and we think those guys are winners. We had 2 guys out most of the year and they would both have to hit like 300 to bring our offense into the better half. We have zero offensive talent at Louisville and after about 8 different trials, most of Cincy agreed these guys were not helpers. In fact, they contributed to our demise. I can see a new manager helping in a lot of ways but I can not see a new manager helping Benson, Friedl, or Steer to hit 275. Krall says he is going to continue to rely on organizational development. That hasn’t worked and in all likelihood won’t work in 2025. This is the guy who hasn’t added any significant talent at the trade deadline 2 years in a row and watched lesser teams move ahead of us down the stretch. We were 3-4 games out of a playoff spot in July and now are what.10 and seen teams like the Mets, Giants, Dbacks, Cubs pass us up. . We have starting pitchers who are going to be innings limited next September and organizational development is the plan?
My high school manager was better than Bell. My grandsons LL team plays better defense and are better base runners. But I do agree the main problem with the Reds is ownership and until they sell the team nothing will improve.
Players win baseball games, not managers.
Yep. And good, even great, players have bad years.
so you think Bell was a good motivator?
I have no idea. Players seemed to like him. But I think other Reds managers have been better motivators.
Sparky said (back in the day) that managers make a difference in about five games a season.
So why have one at all? They control the lineup and in game substitutions. They are the main voice in the clubhouse. They are the tone setter. Managers absolutely matter and David Bell was simply not good at it. We have a large sample size to back that up.
As Bum Phillips (Houston Oilers) once said, A Good Coach (or manager) Can Take His’n And Beat Your’n or He Can Take Your’n And Beat His’n.
Players matter more. Managers can’t make bad or mediocre players (or ones having a bad season) win.
The 1971 Reds had pretty much the same lineup as the 1970 Reds. Foster for Tolan in CF and Grimsley for Merritt as SP. Otherwise similar. But 1971 was 79-83 and 1970 was 102-60. Did Sparky cause that? No. Too many Reds had bad or mediocre seasons in 1971.
The Orpheus Chamber Orchestra doesn’t have a conductor and plays superbly. It’s an interesting thought, though I realize that you meant it rhetorically.
@OT, you keep going back to the same example. That was one year, Sparky’s 2nd. Bell has had 6 seasons with a variety of rosters. He wasn’t getting it done.
Sparky had six seasons when his team finished below .500 including, in 1989, a team that lost 103. He is exhibit A for what happens when a manager–even a very good one–has a weak roster. The 21 Reds had some very good players, certainly, but they had a terrible bullpen, Can somebody name a team in the last 20 years that went deep into the playoffs with one of the worst bullpens in baseball?
Hutchinson in 1960 and 1961. Similar talent but added P Jay 3B Freese 2B Blasingame and traded All-Star SS McMillan All Star C Bailey and AL All-Star P McLish. Each of the the latter went on to good careers into mid 1960s after the Reds. Jay was good in 1961 and 1962. Freese was good in 1961. Blasingame was decent in 1961 and 1962.
More examples if you want. May I suggest you study Reds history. I lived it.
Bell would have lost 115 with that roster in 1989.
He might have, VaRedsfan. Might not have. But that wasn’t the point.
A couple more.
1990 Reds were WS champs but 91-71 regular season. 1991 Reds had similar roster and same manager but were 74-88.
2011 Reds (79-83) were sandwiched in between 2010 and 2012 NL Central championship team. Not identical but similar roster. Same manager.
I like to throw that out, because I can’t prove it lol…. 😉
IMO with the same rosters, the good one would win 12-15 more games than the bad one. About 2 per month.
True but good managers find a way to make sure that players tend to improve rather than regress. Outside of Elly and Stephenson, virtually every single offensive player regressed this year
Jonathan India didn’t regress. Ty France came to the Reds and starting hitting way better than he hit with Seattle this year. Santiago Espinal didn’t regress from what he did in 2023 in Toronto.
“good managers find a way to make sure that players tend to improve rather than regress”
This is the sort of vague and sketchy assumption that gets passed along as some essential truth when it’s anything but.
A good manager puts his players in a position to be their best, but after that, it’s up to the player.
Did CES regress because he was hurt? We don’t know. Did Friedl regress because he was hurt. Almost certainly.
India’s wRC+ and WAR are better than they were in 2022 and 2023.
The reason for the regression of Marte is obvious and needs no further discussion.
It sure seems Espinal and France have been positives, not regressive.
Guys like Fraley and Fairchild were already marginal players who were never meant to get significant playing time. Fraley was basically the same player he was last year.
You seem to be basing much of your poor argument on Will Benson.
The absence of Mclain seemed to put the Reds into an offensive funk this season.
The Reds love to make bad contracts…
Moose. Shogo. Weaver. Montas. Candy. Myers. Minor. the David Bell extension. Etc.
But I’ll give them credit for being willing to eat the money, and move on from their bad decisions.
Now, if they could just resist the urge to offer these bad contracts in the first place…
Weaver is having an excellent year with NYY. Making $2 M this year. Look it up.
yes, he is having a career year as a reliever.
but the Reds didn’t pay him to be a reliever. They signed him to be an “innings eater”
I think it’s enough to say that David bell doesn’t get enough out of the players he is given. It doesn’t really matter how Krall goes about saying it.
Yes it would be nice if he was given some better players. But I think it’s been clear under this ownership that the manager needs to be able to make chicken salad out of chicken ____ sometimes. That’s the deal.
The guardians and Rays seem to be able to do it. And the Brewers have consistently been able to reload every year on a budget. I disagree that the Manager and coaching staff isn’t very important at the mlb level. It might not be when your payroll is >200$M but it is very important when your payroll is < 100$M.
You’re echoing Krall’s statement, and for Krall, it was remarkably self serving. In essence, he said: “David should have won more games with the players I provided.” Right. He would say that.
No, it’s not enough to say Bell doesn’t get enough out of the players he is given. Come here with FACTS. Come he with more than “my HS manager was better.”
You mean Tyler Stephenson? Sam Moll? Espinal? France? Steer? Friedl?
Yeah, Marte has been a bust. A very inexperienced kid with a lot of talent who sat 80 games into the season couldn’t quickly adjust to big league pitching and field capably. That’s Bell’s fault? You mean, it wasn’t an organizational decision to stick with him at third, it was Bell’s alone? Do you have any insight into that?
The Rays have been winning reliably with tiny payrolls. They also have an organizational model that has been very hard to duplicate, as any frustrated Yankee fan will tell you. You also need a ton of depth to sell off all your proven major leaguers (Castillo, Suarez, Mahle, Winker, Gray) in return for prospects, then expect them to provide quick and sustainable results. They kinda got that last year for a short period of time, but I guess it’s not as simple as all that after all.
Great read Richard. I saw the Who 2 years ago and they opened with a full orchestra and 5 songs from Tommy. It was spectacular.
As far as Marte goes, I remember my little league coach taking my mitt and rubbing it in the dirt when I didn’t get down on a grounder and said “there, it’s dirty, don’t be afraid to get your glove to the ground.”
I am not sure that Marte ever had a coach like that. He is making easily correctable mistakes and lack of effort mistakes that coaching should correct. That is why Bell is gone.
As far as players, the straw to this team is not Elly, it is McLean. He is the Pete Rose of this bunch, the rallies of last year and the one run losses this year.
And with his health and some pitching health in 2025, a division flag
Richard, where are your “facts” for your premise that Bell did not choose the lineups, etc.? Your article was filked with opinions.
Dewey, whether or not Bell is a good manager is a matter of opinion, too. Note that Richard didn’t say that it was an organizational decision, he suggested that it might have been, and I have certainly wondered the same thing, because the only good reason I could think of for playing Marte at third in MLB was player development; the way he was playing certainly wasn’t going to burnish Bell’s resume’.
@RF – Since you brought up Sam Moll. How Bell treated probably the best arm in the bullpen borders on malpractice. Several times before Moll was placed on the IL, he would warm up once, sometimes twice and never get in the game. Only to trust Justin Wilson in a tie game or a 1-run either way game….and to watch him blow it. Moll would get 2 outs on 7 pitches and be lifted from the game while Wilson or Cruz would be left in to give up multiple runs. Any explanation as to why Wilson and Cruz were used for higher leverage than Moll? I’ll wait.
I don’t know what I just read, but yes Bell needed to go, no he isn’t the only issue. If we could get a new ownership group in that would be even better, but that’s not how the world actually works.
YES every team deals with injuries. The reason ours are so impactful is we don’t have very many good players. When you constantly rebuild somehow you lose all of your good players. Funny how that works.
The front office has not been good. David Bell was not good at managing. Both things can be true. To be 50 games under .500 after 6 years and still be in the dugout tells me they kept him too long.
So if the front office is bad, you need to keep bad managers past their expiration dates? David Bell was a bad hire from the start yet they kept bringing him back. If anything, they were too fair to him. If I failed at my job year after year for 6 years I wouldnt have one.
Both things can be true, but judging a manager by the team’s record leaves out the most important reason for the team’s record and ignores the abundant evidence and many examples of what happens when a “good” manager-a manager with a winning record-has a team with a weak roster.
“The front office has not been good. David Bell was not good at managing. Both things can be true.”
Yes, yes, a thousand times (at least) yes.
EXACTLY. Very well and pithily said.
This is one of my favorite retorts. “Both things can be true.”
It doesn’t really mean anything and certainly doesn’t add to the discussion, but hey, it sounds good and can be applied to anything, just like WD40 to solve all problems.
Come on Richard, it absolutely means something. 2 statements, both true.
How does that not mean something?
I appreciate your viewpoint, but you need to appreciate the viewpoints of the commenters on here too.
Also, it CAN’T be “applied to anything.” At least not accurately. It can only be applied when the 2 statements are, in fact, true.
And I think this is one of those cases. (Ownership and roster construction has not been good. And also the manager has not been good. Both true, IMO.)
Richard, I am beginning to think that David Bell must be godfather to your children.
Richard you are blinded by your Bell goggles. The comment that both things can be true absolutely adds to the discussion. In fact, unlike your article it’s very astute and SPOT ON. No goggles were destroyed when making the post. The comment doesn’t fit your narrative so it gets a sarcastic reply by you. Watch a game or two, and then get back to us about how great a manager Bell is. LOL
BOTH things can absolutely be true.
He’s had good rosters and lost.
He’s had bad rosters and lost.
Bell has had three winning seasons with the Reds and three losing seasons.
Bell wasn’t a great manager, the team never overachieved. It’s silly to be sad or angry about a mediocre manager getting fired after getting six seasons. He wasn’t given great teams, ok, but six seasons in charge is generally reserved for managers that have had some successes, and David Bell never had those successes.
For young teams, even a change in voices can be beneficial, even if the previous voice was saying all the right things in all the right ways, which nobody ever suggested Bell was doing.
I have to shake my head in wonderment at all the posts decrying the uncaring attitude of Reds ownership. It wasn’t that long ago that the Castellinis were lauded as saviors… finally a Cincinnati group in control of the franchise. Fast forward to earlier this year when there was a rumor circulated that the Reds might move!
Changing ownership is not necessarily the cure-all. How do you, the fan, know that the new guy is going to be any better… “new boss, same as the old boss…”
You want to talk bad ownership? Jerry Reinsdorf and John Fisher… nobody’s riding to Chicago’s or Oakland’s rescue. Even if they were, there is no guarantee these guys would sell.
Think hard on this… The Bob finally says okay I’ll sell. The new owner is a hedge fund manager dabbling in real estate investment trusts. Newly minted multi-billionaire swoops in, sells off the productive parts and turns GABP into riverfront condominiums touting the glorious views of the Covington skyline (and I ain’t talking chili… besides it’s Dixie Chili across the river.)
Nice. So we’re basically held hostage by the incompetent billionaire we know and the billionaire we don’t. At this moment, GABP and riverfront condos have on thing in common, I won’t be there and neither will thousands of older fans, and neither will all the younger fans they never made. The game is dying, the team is irrelevant. I’m struggling to see how any ownership group could be worse. They are worse then bad, they are irrelevant and boring.
They aren’t smart enough to be the Guardians and they don’t have the ownership to be the Dodgers. So, they are just blah and forgettable.
Actually, the Castellini family (and the others in the Ownership Group) are not billionaires, or even close. I think I read somewhere that as the Managing Partner of the Reds, Bob Castellini is one of the “poorest” (relatively) of Baseball ML owners. I think his net worth was listed as something like $400 Million. That seems YUGE to us proles, but a lot of that net worth is tied up in assets that are not easily liquidated (including his ownership shares of the Reds) and could be used as cash.
I think the primary owner of the Mets is (or was) worth something like $14 Billion.
And the Dodgers signed Shohei Otani for something like $700 million for a span of years. Only a handful of teams (like 3) could do that. Certainly not the Reds. And they probably bought the NL MVP for that money. And next year Otani will be pitching again.
I guess I’m trying to have my cake and eat it too by defending/attacking Bell, but that HG start in Tampa had to turn heads. It turned mine. HG mows them down and we’re up 1-0 after 7 so Bell goes with Cruz, who’s been horrible for a month straight. Rays win. Slow to react to current events. Glacier slow in correcting guys getting picked off with men in front of them, etc.
That happened alot and that’s absolutely not a case of “Well Bell was aggressive and the Reds stole a ton of bases, etc so you live with the occasional out”. No!! That’s low baseball IQ and it happened almost every night. Couldn’t bunt, couldn’t hit-n-run, couldn’t hit a sac fly or advance runners generally. Guys like Candy couldn’t save their sorry seasons by going the other way. Bell had to go
Oh and the next night a completely rested Moll comes into a Reds blowout after Cruz just blew the series in Tampa.
Moll has been eons better then Cruz since the first day he arrived in Cincinnati.
“The Reds are shutting Moll down for the season so that he can focus on offseason treatments. The southpaw has been dealing with the shoulder injury since mid-June, but it worsened on Sept. 6, when it started to hurt while he was warming up in the bullpen.”
How was his shoulder that night?
It was probably fatigued from warming up so much, then not getting into games, so Justin Wilson could be used.
Indy, I think the complaint about pulling Greene could be levied at any team in MLB. Starters don’t average much more than 5 innings per start, and there’s Greene’s injury history to account for besides. As for Cruz instead of Moll? I don’t know. Might been bad judgment, might have had to do with who felt better, might simply have been because, like all managers, Bell has to use everybody in his bullpen.
Just the fact that Phil Castellini could be so widely, publicly, obviously disliked… and still get promoted to CEO of the team… tells you all you need to know.
He’s not neutral. He’s quite disliked.
But I dunno… I guess this is what (near)billionaires do. Maybe I’d do it too if I were one. (If I did, though, I would suck, and would hope you all would call me out! Lol…)
Sorry, just sour grapes… I’m still processing my emotions. 😉
For the right amount of money, I will say nice things about Phil Castellini.
Anyways, I do think that the Reds’ main problem is Ownership. But I don’t know how much money that tell Nick Krall he can spend on payroll. Which is how we got the budget “free agent of the year” Jeimer Candelario.
Spent the last weekend of Aug and the Saturday night game had ty steve,India and espinal all out of lineup and they lost 5-4,the next day india led off with a walk and then moved to 2nd on balk and then decided to take a nap and got picked off 2nd,2 mores hits followed and inning ended 1st and 3rd with no runs,if more people had watched these games they would have seen this was a norm,and when ur playing the team your trying to catch and this is how you do it,bell was never a major league manager
That’s an issue. So many people write opinionated pieces and don’t watch the games.
Or maybe so many people watch the games and don’t have a good understanding of the overall big picture.
Or like the people that think stealing a lot of bases means they are a great baserunning team.
Exactly, and I think he knew that when he wrote it.
I do realize that Bell needed to go. He proved he’s basically average or slightly below with his overall record. But changing the manager really doesn’t catapult the franchise forward. Maybe in 2025 if there’s fewer injuries and guys have better years, you will see a run at a WC spot, but to move the needle they need two things desperately in my opinion beyond a new manager or even a new GM.
1. A new ownership group that includes a younger Gen X type
2. Signing EDLC to a long-term deal
#1 isn’t very likely unfortunately, though I do realize that there’s newer names emerging as leaders within the ownership group.
#2 desperately needs to happen. The numbers will be absurd regardless but that’s the statement that will ultimately prove to me that this ownership group is truly serious about winning.
I’m going to use an analogy. I live in Charlotte and happen to be a Carolina Panthers fan. As most know, we had the first pick in the draft last season and picked a quarterback. He has struggled mightily but was defended by a large segment of the fanbase claiming he had a very poor offensive line and a core of skill position players not up to snuff. Lo and behold they started a quarterback on Sunday known to most of you. Guess what? The team looked better than it has in the last three seasons this past Sunday. Nick Krall is certainly on the hot seat now as he should be. We will know how much blame to lay at the feet of David Bell come next season. I am all for the change because the status quo was not working. Will it work out? We will find out soon enough.
We will know if next season features injuries of the same number and severity, a half season suspension of a projected starting infielder and a tremendous fall-off in production of one of the better hitters. That’s one of the problems with judging managers by team records. The core of the criticism of Bell comes down to the fact that many of his decisions are contrary to what we believe we would do in the same circumstances. In light of this, there’s an interesting irony in the frequent calls for Bell’s replacement to be “a proven winner:” If our opinions are valid, why couldn’t a guy who’s never manged be a good choice? Jay Bruce waits in the wings.
The primary concern that I’ve had with the Reds under David Bell is the sloppiness of play. I’m not so much concerned with proven winner as I would like to see a taskmaster come in. A Buck Showalter would be the polar opposite of David Bell. If the Reds higher from within, I will not consider them a serious organization.
I thought that was a solid article. This team was doomed before leaving Arizona. McClain allows India to play some OF and helps the OF and 3B production. Arroyo who could have covered up for Marte and allowed him to stay in Triple A. CES needed to have a decent year and solidify 1B for this club to achieve at a high level. Where was he?
Now the Benson thing is spot on however where was Fraley? Not available for about 70 games. Benson was supposed to be a 4th 5th or 6th OF. Where was Friedl for 100 games? In short Bell was closer to manager of the year than being fired.
Arroyo could’ve covered up for Marte and allowed him to stay in triple-A? Edwin Arroyo?
The guy is 20 (okay, just turned 21) and has played 4 games above high-A ball.
Anyway, I don’t mind you making a case for your opinion, but don’t make stuff up like that. Arroyo was bound for double-A this year and, if all went well, a late-season promotion to triple-A.
Per Baseball Reference, Jonathan India has never planned an inning in MLB at any position except 2B. Per The Baseball Cube, he last played 3B as a professional in 2019 at Class AA. He has never played OF at any level as a professional.
Edwin Arroyo has not played a game above Class AA. Per The Baseball Cube, he has played exclusively at SS in the MiLB.
Santiago Espinal was available all year to play anywhere on the infield. He was also used in the outfield (for the 1st time at MLB) and had defensive issues.
that is interesting about India only playing second base. rarity in todays game
@Jim, your first paragraph is what bugs me about people assuming India can just be plugged in at 3B, or LF. He is not a talented fielder, but he has improved as a 2B over the last season. I don’t see another position where he can play at a MLB level.
McLain is a talented fielder, and has played multiple positions as a Red, minor leaguer, and as a college player. Keep India at 2B, and let McLain play 3B, or CF.
MBS, given India’s limitations defensively (ie good not great at 2B), I have often wondered how he would do at 1B. We have seen the value of Ty France at 1B, and he and India are actually quite similar. Shifting India over to replace France in next year’s 1B/DH equation could possibly be a costs savings while gaining the value of Matt McLain at 2B full-time. Heck, France is not that expensive so keeping him and India in the 1B/DH rotation, with Candelario (holding my nose) logging time at 3B, and Espinal backing up 2B/SS/3B could be a relatively productive infield. Note: I am on board with both Marte and CES starting in AAA to make adjustments to their hitting.
Spoiler alert: ownership is going to bungle this hire, too. So, I personally am rooting for an *entertaining* manager, rather than a winning one. It’s more realistic to root for comedy than success.
In that spirit, I’d like to nominate Bryan Price. His press conference eloquence is missed, and at least we’d know he was emotionally invested.
Such a cynical girl! 🙂
But I get what you are saying. My personal vote is for David Ross. But who knows what kind of “yes man” the Ownership group will choose.
I always remember the first press conference Sam Wyche had as the Bengals head coach. He was asked if he would be Paul Brown’s “yes man”. Wyche promptly turned to Paul Brown, sitting next to him, and asked him..”How do I answer that?”
Pretty funny stuff. Wyche was always quite the character.
i guess the question is who is to blame for the team batting average of .233? Bell, upper management, ownership?
we have been a poor hitting team for quite some time now and it is hard for me to know who to place the blame. this has spanned different owners, gms and managers. Is it GABP perhaps? are we in a dead ball era? Is the pitching simply too dominant now? are we not drafting or trading for the right players? is it a developmental issue?
I think are struggles have a lot more to do with the state of the league in general rather than poor management or ownership.
Great piece! Krall is a tool of a disinterested ownership. Bell made mistakes, but every manager makes mistakes. David Bell is not the reason the Reds and underperformed in the Castellini era.
Wow! I couldn’t disagree with the point of this article more. Just WOW! Clearly it’s a dig at the ownership, and of course an excuse for Bell. Even in the opening paragraph signs of hypocrisy occur. Ownership put those “player” iconic statues up and no managers. I guess the inept ownership knew what they are doing in that instance right, because you agree with them and why they put no manager statues up. LOL
As for Bell, He has NEVER been a winner as a manager and that showed in Cincinnati. Managers do matter despite your overall conclusion. There is a reason Sparky won in other places besides Cincinnati. There is a reason that Baker won virtually EVERYWHERE he managed, including Cincinnati, same with Piniella.
If you really watch this team, it’s unmistakable how undisciplined this team has been. Do you not realize that almost every player on this team, offensively not named Elly had some sort of regression this year? That is what gets manager’s fired. One of the few teams that scored more runs than it let up, but is well below .500. This team was literally embarrassing to watch at times this year. As you noted, we couldn’t get guys on base to steal, so you put your table-setter in the cleanup spot? Bell is a nice guy, and I actually liked him, but as a manager; HE WAS TERRIBLE. Krall has many faults, but letting Bell go Sunday night was not one of them.
Why yes, Sparky did win in other places and there is a reason: he had good players. One year in Detroit, though, he had bad players and they lost 103 games. He actually had a number of losing seasons. The point is that, yes, managers matter, but they don’t matter as much as many of us seem to think, and the ways in which they actually matter the most, in all probability, are the least visible to us.
Just chiming in to add that comparing the impact of a manager today versus a manager even 20 years ago, much less 40+ is apples and socket wrenches. Baseball used to have a manager, a pitching coach, and a hitting coach. That’s it. Today the Cincinnati Reds have a manager, a pitching coach, an assistant pitching coach, a hitting coach, an assistant hitting coach, ANOTHER assistant hitting coach, a game planning/infield coach (or they did until they fired Pickler when they fired Bell), and then the base coaches, the bullpen coach, and a “major league coach/coordinator of advance scouting”.
A manager 40 years ago was responsible for far more in nearly every appreciable way than they are today. Today every single different aspect of the game has someone else in charge.
And I’d say the Reds have so many coaches it likely muddies lines of responsibility and accountability, not to mention basic communication.
The communication may be muddied, but evidently the Reds complement of coaches is the norm for MLB.
@greenmtred>> Other teams may also have the lines of communication, authority, and accountability more clearly defined and have a person at the top of the chain who is better at managing them.
They might indeed, Jim.
Jim, the number of coaches may possibly muddy lines (role blurring is the organizational analysis term), but that doesn’t make it likely. For that matter, it may help. Maybe Nick Krall’s highly touted but entirely routine (mundane?) performance review may find out?
Richard, thanks for the provocative article–I enjoy your work. I agree with your premise–many at RLN overestimate a manager’s impact, and more significant organizational problems have turned this once proud franchise into a perineal loser.
I differ on two points. First, MLB has a structurally uneven competitive landscape, and the problem is getting worse, not better, with time. This makes bad owners worse.
Second, the facts indicate that the Reds did not maximize their potential when running the bases. While Fangraphs has the Reds second in MLB in Baserunning Runs Above Average (16.6), Baseball Reference provides some facts that imply they should have been much better.
Outs on Base (OOB): A runner is put out while making a baserunning play, not including pickoffs, caught stealing, or force plays. Example plays: out advancing on a fly ball, out attempting to reach another base on a hit, doubled off on a line drive, or out attempting to advance on a wild pitch or passed ball.
– The Reds are the worst in MLB, with 64 OOB against a league average of 42. To compound the problem, the Reds are also worst at getting thrown out at 1B (10 times; league average 6) and 3B (17 times; league average 10). These stats appear to indicate poor risk decisions.
– Pickoffs (PO): The Reds were also second worst in MLB for pickoffs (22; league average 11) and the worst team for pickoffs less caught stealing (13). These stats indicate a lack of attention to detail (planning and execution) on the bases.
Together, that 33 outs baserunning worse than the MLB average, and the data supports Krall’s statement that the team was undisciplined on the basepaths. While I believe Bell is better than many give him credit for, it’s hard to dismiss these stats and his opportunity to improve them. It takes little imagination to visualize how baserunning hurt the Reds, especially in close games. Couple giving up unnecessary outs with the fifth-worst defense (per Fangraphs), and it’s easy to understand why they underperformed in one-run games. Taken together, poor defense and poor base running well explain how a team is the only one in the league with a losing record while having a positive run differential.
P.S. The Brewers are #1 in baserunning, according to Fangraphs, and 16 runs better than the Reds in OOB and pickoffs.
Here’s the link to the Baseball Reference chart if you would like to check the facts:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-baserunning-batting.shtml
Thank you BK for the data and even more for the link.
Thank you BK for posting this. I don’t know if you were the one who posted this a few weeks back, but this is directly on the coaches/managers. I think this is one of the issues that Krall was talking about. Lack of attention to detail on not only the players but coaching. To have some people blame this on ownership is ludicrous. As I have stated on other posts, in May in San Fran the Reds had three runners thrown out trying to take extra base. Color commentator on Fox said “ You would think they would learn the first time”. Apparently Bell and is staff couldn’t figure that out.
Also, a perennial loser. I guess you got spell-checked!
Yes, sometimes the auto-incorrect feature overrides the auto-correct feature. Of course, I should have noticed the error myself.
BK always comes armed with facts and data, probably our “Most Valuable Commenter”. No kidding, really.
I will say one more thing, for whatever meaningless effect it has.
It’s not so much (as above) that “both things can be true”. The Root Cause of the Reds less than having either a .500 season (or better) and not even being competitive is, again, Top Management. They hired David Bell, they chose him. Sure, David Bell wanted the job, but they could have said “nice guy, Buddy Bell’s son and all, but there are better candidates”. But Top Management did choose David Bell, for better or worse.
They decide the roster, by means of the budget. Who Nick Krall can sign as a free agent, how much he can spend.
The buck stops with the Ownership Group. Bob Castellini is the managing partner, but I am sure they have a few meetings of the whole group to decide and approve a global yearly budget for the Reds; free agents, raises, payroll, minor league expenses, money slotted for draft picks, etc. And Nick Krall (and assistants) probably come up with various budget scenarios for spending, and one gets approved.
Great post BK. Sadly, Richard will probably suggest that your post, since he doesn’t agree with it (facts are stupid things), is irrelevant to this discussion.
Great stuff BK.
The writer seems to take facts that do not fit his narrative as insults.
Thanks for this BK.
I’ve looked at these numbers. Individual totals need context, which is why I cite Fangraphs. You’ve looked at a total like OOB and come to the conclusion that this is poor decision-making or lack of attention to detail. We should want to know what the consequences are across the board and what value there is in staying out of the double play, the increased chances of scoring later versus playing it safer, the stress it puts on the pitcher, the way it changes the defensive alignment, etc.
I don’t know, but I know this team didn’t have the talent to move runners along predictably, hence the need to take risk, sometimes excessive risk.
Here’s what I’m pretty sure of: Krall was on board with this strategy. He didn’t just sit in his private booth and watch. You have to believe they talked on a consistent basis.
This firing was a CMA move by the front office and ownership, IMO.
@Richard, I appreciate your perspective, and your conclusion may be correct. I believe there has been a strong alignment between the front office and managerial staff over the last several years.
That said, the data indicates that the Reds were overly aggressive on the bases–they are outliers by definition. While it would be best to diagnose each event individually, I don’t have time for that level of analysis. However, if the Reds had been league-average in OOB and pickoffs (just average, not good), based on their/MLB run-scoring percentages, they would have scored another 10-11 runs this season. I would not expect them to be aggressive and a lot better than league average.
When Krall was publicly non-committal about Bell earlier this month, I explained that team baserunning metrics indicated that the Reds had underachieved as baserunners despite generating strong, positive value in that area. I was unsurprised that Krall mentioned baserunning yesterday as a “philosophical difference.”
Much of the team’s poor play was likely out of Bell’s control, but this aspect was not. Particularly if the Front Office asked him to control the baserunning more closely and it didn’t happen, it would be easy to see how a rift developed.
The Red’s other giant wart was 3B defense, where Marte and Candelario (a career average defensive 3B before 2024) gave opponents an extra 15 runs, according to Statcast. The fact that the game-planning/infield coach was also dismissed may indicate coaching played a role in this problem, although I haven’t seen enough data to draw that conclusion.
I’ll end with this because it’s a good read and dovetails neatly with much of what I’ve already said. From Fangraphs today:
https://x.com/fangraphs/status/1838624625267257755
Thanks, Richard. It’s a good read, but as far as baserunning goes, the author only addressed the stolen base percentage–with the Reds, he missed a problem that most of the Red’s beat writers have picked up on. That happens when one starts with a conclusion and cites supporting evidence rather than examining the evidence before drawing a conclusion.
Almost any time a manager/coach/corporate executive is fired, the underlying decision is complex. Reading at RLN, it’s easy to see the near-term positive reaction from many. I agree that Bell has mostly had problematic to middling teams to work with. That’s somewhat on Krall, a lot on ownership, and somewhat on MLB as an enterprise.
Again, keep the articles coming. I enjoy them and look forward to them. Also, thanks for engaging today.
One more little morsel: I’m not saying that better baserunning would have put the Reds in the playoffs. I’m saying that the Reds underperformed in that area and that coaching could have corrected the problem sooner. I do not believe the Reds could have run the bases so well that they would be in the playoffs this year. Now, if they had corrected the baserunning and played league-average defense …
@BK – I tried to point this out to him in his last article about baserunning. You’ve done a better job than I could. I don’t think that he thinks there’s a difference in aggressive baserunning, and smart baserunning.
NOBODY is blaming the Reds (or Bell) for anyone that is caught stealing bases. They question the manager when the fleet footed Ty Steve is waved to 3rd on a double trying to stretch into a triple with ZERO outs, late in a 1 run ball game. They question when the contact play has failed a gazillon times, why they keep trying it. They question trying to steal 3rd base with 2 outs, or try to steal 3B when down 6 runs.
Every situation, is game scenario dependent. I’m not sure why that can’t be understood, or is chosen to be overlooked.
“The Red’s other giant wart was 3B defense,”
It didn’t help David Bell in keeping his job that he used Espinal as the DH several times instead of in the field. lol
Good stats BK.
I have been fairly neutral on Bell until earlier this year, but something that happened in 2021 I cannot forget. If I am remembering properly, David Bell said something concerning Castellanos about his outfield play, then as Castellanos got wind of it, started taking fielding practice after that game. Bell came out on the field and babied him, trying to say whatever so Castys feeling didnt get hurt. That’s not what being a manager is all about, you are not your players best friends, you have to discipline them when they screw up, and get the most you can out of them. The only time he got emotional was with the other team or the umpires, never his own guys. That just does not work.
Tearing people down is not the only way to get the most out of them.
I never said one word about tearing them down.
“You have to discipline them when they screw up” is a form of tearing them down where I come from.
Disciplining someone is not the only way to move forward with helping them improve. What you called “babying him so his feelings didn’t get hurt” definitely implies that you believe what Bell did was hurting his feelings, thus tearing him down in some way, and following that statement up with “get the most you can out of them” furthers that point from how I was reading it.
Maybe you didn’t mean it that way. But that’s how it reads to me.
Sometimes you have to spank your kids so they will learn.
People today act like discipline is a naughty word.
Wait. You’re going back 3 years to an isolated incident you’re not even sure you’re remembering correctly to criticize him for both holding a player accountable AND then not holding him accountable enough. Trying to create a healthy relationship with one of your star players is “babying” now?
Castellanos was a bad fielder in Detroit, Cincinnati and now Philly. At what point does any of this fall on the player?
You’ve obviously been in the clubhouse more than me to know that he never confronted mistakes in other players. Oh, but Jonathan India said something once and that means the players were just sitting on the clubhouse couches all year.
Now I understand.
Oh come on. I said it bothered me. That’s my opinion, you have yours. I don’t claim to have any ultimate insight on the players, it’s just my opinion. Say what you will, but this is getting ridiculous.
If I remember it correctly, Castellanos was subbed out as a late game defensive replacement on opening day and got mad about that, went out after the game and took fly balls and publicly complained. After that Bell never subbed defensively for him again that year. (I could be misremembering this for sure, but I think that is how that went.)
Yes. IMO that set the tone on how he would deal with player complaints, or what kind of disciplinarian he might be as a manager.
Didn’t see your post LarkinPhillips. 🙂
As I recall I believe it was the first game of the year for Casty and first game for him as a Red and he was was taken out for defensive purposes. He took offense and started taking fly balls directly after the game. I’m not sure that ever happened again. If it did it was rare.
Richard, I really appreciate your article, and I like you, wish more fans understood the random nature of 1 run ballgames. The fact that we created runs by our aggressive baserunning should not be overlooked as well. I think DJ and Bell did the best they could with a pitching staff that was challenged all year with injuries particularly after the All Star break.
Having said that I am OK with the decision to move on from Bell. His shelf life may have expired. I don’t know and haven’t heard about what the locker room was like. I think that the leadership exerted by the manager is one of their biggest roles. Last year you could just see the fun this team had and it made me want to watch. This year it wasn’t as palpable. Of Course winning, even being barely over .500, makes it fun.
I am afraid that the Reds are going to move away from analytics even further. We need to focus on defense, OBP, and health of our pitchers. Hopefully our next manager can be a great clubhouse leader and mentor for our young players.
@MSBush. Thanks. I have no idea how good Bell would have been given more talent and better circumstances. But, to me, most of the niggling criticisms are hard to parse out in a 162 game season, where a manager not only has to try to win today, but keep his players healthy and engaged for 6 months and hopefully beyond.
The persistent criticism of resting Tyler Stephenson on Sundays was always shortsighted. Now, if he rested him during a critical playoff run in October, or didn’t let Hunter Greene go one more inning in the playoffs with a 70 pitch count, that would surely tell us something about Bell’s judgment.
As was said in the link below, AJ Hinch is playing all 28 on his roster to great advantage and that is why they are on this run. David Bell was crucified that that.
https://x.com/MLBNow/status/1838307850864476443
As for moving away from analytics, that would be the biggest mistake the Reds could ever make. Analytics are not incongruous with defense or getting men on base. Quite the contrary. Ask Joey Votto.
Again…NOBODY thinks Ty should catch 162 games, or that he doesn’t need days off. When he didn’t catch, there was no reason he couldn’t DH though…especially when his bat was smoking. You might want to see Mike Ford, or the equivalent, bat 3rd, but I don’t.
William Contreras STARTED (not played in) 149 games this year. Played in 159.
Ty started in 117, played in 134.
It would have been more forgivable, if they had a capable backup.
The Reds were 67-50 in games Ty started.
12-32 in Maile’s starts.
Who’s in charge of which guys start/play?
Bell, himself, may have made these same arguments in hopes of keeping his job. Obviously, it wasn’t enough. Your article, Richard, reminds one of the old idiom, that some folks just can’t see the forest for the trees. It was time, long past time to acknowledge that Bell’s style simply didn’t match with the personnel.
Amen.
Ah, another homey idiom. Maybe I can see both the trees AND the forest.
Both things can be true. Haven’t you heard?
🙂
Both (or 3) things can be true.
You can have an analytical manager, he can promote discipline, and he can manage with his gut, when it makes sense.
After the game he can take ownership, if he made a bad move, or say I though Pitcher X was in a good spot so I let him go another inning and he didn’t let me down.
It NEVER has to be either/or.
“ I have no idea how good Bell would have been given more talent and better circumstances”
I do, look at 2021’s roster and you can see what he would do given more talent.
Look at the whole story of that roster, Justin. It’s been mentioned before. Terrible bullpen. Winker missed significant time in the 2nd half. Suarez fell off the cliff. I think that was the year that Castillo couldn’t buy a win for a fair number of starts at the beginning of the season. Kyle Farmer at shortstop. It was, as you say, agood team in some ways, but a bad bullpen in the modern game is fatal.
2021 was also a poor defensive club. Winker sometimes played centerfield, and I don’t think that is a fever dream. I doubt there was a single regular starter who was even an average defender, save Tucker Barnhardt. Farmer at shortstop was steady but lacked range.
Richard, you are the voice of reason in cacophony of nonsense. The players are young men (Yes at 21 and 22 you are still a young man.) and need to take responsibility of their actions. It is hard for me to believe that some coach didn’t say to Will Benson, “Lay off that low outside pitch. Shorten your swing and take things the opposite way.” I like Benson but if he is not on the roster that is on him, right now he doesn’t deserve to be on the roster. I remember when Sparky was fired a number of players came forward and said, “This is on us, we didn’t perform.” I have not heard word one, this time. I don’t know if Bell was a good manager or not but I would argue that he was never given a full roster of capable players but instead it always seem to have a lot of reclamation projections and many times plain out those who were nothing more than AAAA players.
Another year of the off season being more interesting than the game season.If France and Espinal are let go get ready for another year of the cheapest talent available to play everyday.
Won’t the “tell” be if David Bell is ever asked to manage at the Major League level again?
David Bell did a lot of things well and I think one thing he’s done well is help some very young players adjust to the MLB.
I still think there are legitimate criticisms to be made against bell and base running is one of them. I don’t mean stolen bases. They’re great at stealing bases. I mean base-running on BIP plays. The defense was also suspect. And for this young team to win, base-running and defense had to he exceptional. That said, it wasn’t going to be enough for this young, injured team to make the playoffs. There’s no way David Bell could help this team overcome that adversity.
The Reds have also been pretty rotten in free agency. Too often the team spends millions on players who fail to produce. That has change.
Finally, the Reds have a major training staff program. And the Reds had an opportunity to add resources that could change their soft tissue injuries in significant was (a method Super Bowl teams and other major athletes use) and the training staff shot it down because they were threatened.
For the Reds to win, there’s has to be complete alignment of purpose from the owner to the front office to the minor leagues to the scouts to the coaches to the players. And there had to be butts in the seats. So far I’ve not seen that alignment in a very long time.
I don’t recall anybody saying that managers don’t matter.
Seems a little bit implied with the old managers are only as good as the players excuse. Yes some good managers are probably considered great managers because of the players. But Bell won’t be confused with good or great unless he changes his ways. He hasn’t improved in six years. Baseball is a game of adjustments for players and managers. And Bell never made any adjustments to improve obvious things that led to losses. And that’s why he’s gone. In my opinion it was years too late but I’m grateful. And no I didn’t want his “head on a spike”. I want him to enjoy his millions of dollars with his family. I just don’t want him making bad calls on a daily basis that holds back my favorite team from having success. Does he deserve 100% of the blame. Obviously not. Kralls made some really bad moves this off-season that also tanked this season. But that’s a separate issue than Bell’s inability to be a good manager.
Hilarious article. Yeah mangers don’t matter. They get compensated millions of dollars annually because of their charm and personality. After seeing Reds lose at least five one run games with runners on third being thrown out at home on a weak ground ball to the shortstop, how do you not blame Bell’s strategy. Thanks BK for the stats to back up what my eyes and brain already saw. But that was the theme wasn’t it. It wasn’t the mistakes. It was the inability to learn from them. Bell just completely ignored things that didn’t work and would do the same thing over and over like the result would magically change. Was this team going to win a world series. Of course not and nobody said they were. But the roster even with the injuries is talented and was capable of doing better with a good manager that had winning strategies. Every team has holes even the teams that win it all. There is no such thing as a perfect team. The good managers are able to identify the weaknesses and navigate around them. Bell clearly would navigate right into the weaknesses.
I was a proponent for Bell being let go, not as much for his in-game moves necessarily though. I think his leadership style was off, too far on the overly positive side, rarely setting a higher standard for his team, almost lowering the bar often with postgame and post-season comments. His postgame comments always left something to be desired in my opinion. When he’d get riled up and argue with an umpire, it almost seemed forced, or staged. It didn’t seem genuine.
I will say, it’s hard to have a balance of being kind, while also disciplining at appropriate times. I’d say most people have a hard time with that balance if you’ve ever been in any leadership position whether David Bell, myself, or a Manger at a fast-food restaurant.
Some of those old-school coaches, such as Bobby Knight, Mike K, at Duke, (I don’t know who the baseball equivalent in baseball would be) in sports I think were too far on the controlling, fearful, side of things, whereas some guys now are probably too on the overly kind, let’s never hurt feelings side. It’s kind of swung to the too nice side in today’s culture in sports, work places in many way. Although you still have the crazy, abusive, especially in college sports guys that occasionally get exposed. I remember my 8th grade basketball coach screaming and hitting a locker during halftime. I look back and think wow that was a little crazy!
I think Bell was not bad with the young guys, and I think one of the better moves he made was giving India the 2B job a few years back. I think he helped some of the young guys, but this year even that wasn’t a real strong point it seemed.
I also think 2020 was Bell’s best team and best shot at a legitimate 85-90 win team or so and Covid ruined that.
But overall, it always goes to the very top at any company when things haven’t been going well for awhile. So I see the Ownership, Front Office as the main reason they’ve not been really good, David Bell, 3rd on that list.
I think they’re trying. They’re just not great at it, or haven’t been great at it now for about 10 years! It’s a competitive business. Someone’s not going to be good out of the 30 teams, but when you’re consistently not making and winning in the playoffs for 30 years, it shows they just haven’t had the best leadership with the last few Owners. But the Owners aren’t going anywhere. Hopefully they turn it around.
A very thoughtful thread with many opinions. Many blames that in my opinion were not faults of the manager.
the one number lacking from every poster is their opinion of how many games, Bell can be credited for winning or losing in a 162 game season.
I read so many opinions going into the season on what a terrible second baseman India was. And those who quoted the various statistical gurus told me the numbers on India equaled -.8 war.
He was terrible at fielding before this year.
Total Fielding Runs Above Average
2021 -1
2022 -14
2023 -5
2024 +4
Clearly the longest input thread of the year. Kudos to all you passionate Red’s fans! Bell was given almost 6 years to make the (real) playoffs. He didn’t. It’s a business. You fire the manager. Frankly I could identify 1-3 mistakes in every game which I can attribute to Bell’s inability to manage PEOPLE who play baseball. He wasn’t good with lineups (who starts and where they hit) and with pitchers (how long to let a guy go, and who to bring in when). I could have produced a Wild Card team with what he had to work with. We should have been at least 10 games better. Hopefully the next guy doesn’t make the same managerial mistakes that Bell did. Good night all.
Well then go apply for the job. Since you can produce a wild card team.
Just hysterical nonsense. Ten games better. Laughable. I could have produced ….
The arrogance is really comical. C’mon people.
Im almost speechless after reading this guest column. Head is dizzy with about 162 rebuttal counter points ready. Simplifying it of course whoever is manager is stuck with the ownership front office and roster hes given. The managers roll is to take that combo and MAXIMIZE production. Its not worth listing how many strategic blunders that go against Abners Razor that our previous manager undertook. Taking out guys who have homered earlier in same game…double triple switching in 6th innings leaving himself hamstrung in 9th when game is actually on line….different batting orders and defensive lineups changing illogically every day changing the rolls of his players…the same base running gaffes and defensive lapses and pitching moves that defy basic baseball on a DAILY basis. Plus not to mention an obvious disconnect with his players. ADD those up over 162 games and you’re 10 games off where you COULD have been without those factors and with the SAME owner,GM and 26 man roster. Thats where our #25 fell way short and HOPEFULLY our new hire can turn that around. Bell had to go because under his watch his own short comings drug it down just enough to be where we are….head spinning
Well stated Anthony. After reading the thread I could bore you all with a book of replies but at the end of the day or game, Bell was not successful in his role for many reasons listed in the replies. A change was needed for the organization and let’s hope we can find some success with the next manager.
For the last 11 years, with the exception of 2023 when there was real excitement, the Reds have been an uncompetitive team. Now there’s another opportunity. A great deal depends on the direction of the top ownership. Reds fans can only hope for a change.
2010, 2012, 2013.. were competitive teams.
Well, that’s why he said “for the last 11 years.” That covers the seasons from 2014-2024.
From Zack Cozart:
Obviously it didn’t work out with the Reds with a manager like David Bell who is one of my fav people all time…. He’s super player oriented meaning he lets the players police and basically do what they want… so if that didn’t work you gotta find someone that is a lot more “old school” … my top 2 choices for Redlegs would be Skip and Ausmus… 2 grinder type players who know what it takes and will hold the players to a high standard on the field and in the clubhouse (which , in my opinion) is the most important… when guys don’t do their jobs or work hard , they need to know that (Stuff) doesn’t fly , not publicly , but they need to know … Dusty used to call me in the office every week telling me to pick my (Stuff) up even when I was actually playing good lol
I think this is the heart of what Reds fans perceive as the problem. India has made comments about Bell giving them free reign. I think that works better if you have a veteran team and a couple of vocal leaders. Not sure if the Reds have those, but I think Hunter and Ty Steve are developing into those roles. I think that is why Hunter wanted to pitch again this year – to try to establish himself as a leader. I think they will need a more old school manager.
Fellow Red’s fans, I said “we should have been at least 10 games better” and a couple of you said that was absurd. I don’t think you realize 10 games better than where we are now (76-82) is ONLY 86-72. I say “only” because that‘s barely better than HALF the teams in the NL! Yes, 86-72 is a .544 winning percentage, and yes 7 of the 15 teams in the NL have a better winning percentage than .544! 10 games better was clearly doable to me and then we would have been slightly better than average — and only 1 game out of the Wild Card race right now. How exciting would that have been!
Mike you can’t argue with delusional. I have no idea what team he watches but I have watched this team for many years and this is some of the worst managing I’ve seen. And as a Reds fan since the 90s I’ve seen too much. There’s many concrete examples. One is the fact AFTER losing 3 starters to injury this spring Bell would use Sundays as a day not only bench Stephenson to give him the day off after the night game but also (unintelligently) make the decision to bench other regulars simultaneously to get his bench players at bats. Common sense would say that would not work and guess what the Sunday record this year was abysmal. A fifth grader could figure out that benching regulars should be staggered so the offense isn’t crippled to the point of no return. It was so ridiculous I was wondering if Bell was intentionally sabotaging the team so he could collect checks from home. People were so confused they opening asked if he was betting on the other team.
Mauired, I know what I saw watching 150+ games a year for the last 3 years, and so do you — and we came to the same conclusion. All we can hope for now is our next Manager knows to use starters every game possible. No one is entitled to any playing time beyond what they’ve earned. This isn’t Little League. Benson, Marte, and a few RPs should have been sent down to AAA until they worked out their issues. 100 pitches is just a round number. For some 90 pitches is all they can throw effectively, for others 110 is no problem. If an RP is cruising, let him go 2 innings. I’s all about winning the game and doing what you think is best every game. These multi millionaires have the best trainers, diet, exercise, travel available. If it ain’t broke, don’t try and fix it by micro managing. Reds in 2025 — let’s go!