The Cincinnati Reds remain undecided about which direction they’re going to go at the trade deadline. That feels a bit problematic given that the trade deadline is in five days (July 30th at 6pm ET). But the entire league, with the exception of the Colorado Rockies and the Miami Marlins are within shouting distance of the final wild card spot. Cincinnati, for example, is four games under .500 and yet they are only four games out of the playoffs.
Congratulations Major League Baseball owners, you’ve done it. You’ve made it so you don’t have to actually try and build good teams to make the claim you were in the playoff hunt all year. Mission accomplished.
Just yesterday we learned that the New York Yankees were interested in acquiring second baseman Jonathan India if the Reds decide that they want to try and be sellers at the deadline. But what about if the Cincinnati front office decides that they should be buyers?
It would seem a bit short-sighted if they traded for players who were only under team control through 2024 given that they are still quite a ways back in the wild card chase, but if they could land a player who could still be around in 2025 (or longer), then the math changes quite a bit.
If the Reds are going to makes trades to try and add to the 2024 big league club, they likely aren’t trading away players currently on the big league club. But they could try to trade from their farm.
The problem there is that their farm system is in shambles. A large majority of their top 25 prospects entering the season have taken big steps backwards this season. Some guys are injured and haven’t, and won’t play at all this year (#3 Edwin Arroyo, #14 Ty Floyd) and two of the guys who have played well this year are currently injured (#9 Sal Stewart, #10 Alfredo Duno). It is worth noting, though, that those rankings are both from before the season began and aren’t reflective of where those guys necessarily would rank today.
Earlier this week Baseball America released their updated Top 100 prospects list and it includes draft picks from this year. The Reds only have three players on the list. Chase Burns, the team’s 1st round pick (and #2 overall pick) tops the list for the club. He’s followed closely by Rhett Lowder, who was the 1st round pick last season. Rounding out the list for the Reds is Alfredo Duno, who hasn’t played in nearly two months due to a fractured rib.
Cincinnati can’t trade Chase Burn – not that they would anyways after just paying him $9,250,000 – the largest bonus in MLB draft history. That would leave just two top 100 caliber prospects that the team has that they could move. One of them is their top international signing from two years ago in catcher Alfredo Duno, who is injured and hasn’t played since May 24th. The other is Rhett Lowder, who has been inconsistent at best in his 12 Double-A starts where he has allowed 68 hits in 53.1 innings with a 5.91 ERA.
Depending on where else you may choose to look, Edwin Arroyo and Sal Stewart may be on a Top 100 prospect list. But Arroyo hasn’t played all year and will be coming off of shoulder surgery – there’s no way his value isn’t down because of that as teams will reasonably have questions about how he can play after surgery. And then there’s Stewart, who has been one of the few top prospects for the club that’s hit well this season – .279/.391/.454 for Dayton with nearly as many walks as strikeouts – but he’s also currently on the injured list.
Teams don’t always have the same tiered rankings of players as you will see on the public lists. They aren’t going to always have the same value. But just looking at the lists we do have, and checking on the performance of many of the players that are considered prospects – the pickings seem to be slim on the Reds farm system if a team is looking for someone who is healthy, performing, and has some upside to them. That probably puts the Reds in a bad spot if they are trying to buy at the deadline and acquire any sort of difference maker.
Not sure I’d call hitting .279 at single A Dayton “well”
Using just batting average to determine if someone is hitting is bad on it’s own, but the league is hitting .235/.327/.362 as a whole, so yeah, he’s hitting quite well for the league and that’s without acknowledging that he’s also two years younger than the league average player.
I never saw what the injury was was Stewart.
A wrist/hand laceration. I have no idea how it happened. Or how long he’s expected to be out.
That’s simple but accurately sums up the situation for those that are screaming for a trade. Short of a major FA signing (that the Reds don’t so anymore), there is nothing significant that can be done. You must give up a current good player (e.g. India) because your prospect cubby is basically empty. Now, if you could pull off a Bob Howsam trade from 1971, than you got something. But, that we don’t have.
Disagree; Reds don’t need a 3 for 5 player swap to improve! I mentioned the other day Reds dismal record n one run games – they need BP help! They also need SP help & will likely need some going into next season due to injuries. Guy doesn’t have to b a front line starter. Rockies Cal Quantrill or Feltner come to mind. Reds have a plethora of fourth outfielders that might interest a playoff team? And perhaps Connor Phillips or Marte need a change of scenery and we’d be worthy package to trade for talent? Could they package Petty 4 someone who’s a little further along? Like it or not, clock is ticking on Greene, Lodolo Abbott & others. Time to fish or cut bait!
I think it would be a mistake to act based on the Reds poor record in one-run games. Those games are the most subject to luck, and evidenced by their historically having almost zero predictive value. Run differential does have predictive value. The Reds have been the second best team in the division, and it’s not particularly close. They would be wise to act as if their record reflected that, and that the youth movement is on pace–albeit with some bad injury and one-run luck over this 90-game span.
Yes, the top prospect list is empty for the Reds this season, but there remain quite a few lottery picks they could move. Couple those with the FA/optionable pitchers, and there’s enough to fill up a deal. Still, that likely only gets a rental or a list of lottery picks in return – they’d have to add someone from the MLB roster (i.e. India) to get any MLB talent with control thru 2025 or beyond.
The time to make these moves was last winter. Now they have nothing to bargain with: major league pending FAs which will bring poor returns, and a couple of guys like India who might be worth a little, and Benson who will be worth very little. If CES, McLain, Friedl, and the rest don’t bounce back well next year, the Reds are once again in a rebuilding position with little to build from except free agency. Hey, but at least they have an AllStar manager. That’s really worked out for them.
CES – 24
McClain – 24
Marte – 22
EDLC – 22
Steer – 26
Heck even India (27), Stephenson (27), and Friedl (28)
I think they got more than just one more year to give it before calling it a bust
Agreed DHUD
Just getting to the prime of it. Between now and next year’s trade deadline is when they need to start adding proven difference makers to the payroll to complete the rebuild; especially this off-season. There is plenty of room on the payroll and I believe the Reds’ prospect pool has more upside than what it looks like, to trade from in the next year. It has been a rough year for injuries and setbacks.
And that’s without even mentioning the age of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott… They have more time for sure lol
Now DW I won’t go as far as to say they *shouldnt* have tried to add last winter – they probably did *try* and us peasants will just never know what conversations were had
But to say their window is done is shortsighted
Didn’t say the window was closed, just that what they were depending on was unproven. And that’s a fact. And there’s no assurances that these guys, post injury, will match their previous performances. The Reds need proven every day major leaguers, not hopes and potentials.
And there’s no assurances that “proven every day major leaguers” will be of any service at any point in the future. The same ppl that scream at clouds over the reds giving Votto $200+ mil say the reds need to go spend lots of money on household names
You can either gamble on cheap promising players or aging expensive players – there is no such be right answer and the reds have made it very clear which strategy they are pursuing
I think they should just hold on to what they got I wouldn’t call this year a bust I’ve seen some positive strides forward. Once again we’ve been bitten by the injury bug I think it’s a good team on the verge I think we should just stand Pat at the trade deadline and look forward to next year maybe add some pieces in the off season and have another run next year I’m tired of everybody wanting to win now at all costs and possibly break up a team that obviously has good team chemistry when everybody’s healthy. It’s a young team on the verge everybody still under team control right now and we should just stick with what we got.
I don’t think their window is closed yet, but another year like this one in 2025 and 2026 will be make or break. If they don’t at least make the post season in 2025 or 2026, it will be time to start a yet another rebuild.
I still think passing on Charlie Condon will turn out to be a major blunder.
Agree! What many seem to ignore is our SP strength. What once looked very promising & deep has changed drastically. Williamson, Ashcraft, Phillips r all young, but the injury bug cometh! MLB SP are like NFL RBs, typically they don’t last long. Greene & Lodolo, still inconsistent, isn’t enough to make it into playoffs or compete once there. In short, the Reds need to add to those two starting pitchers and go for it in the next 2 to 3 years.
Greene, Lodolo, EDLC, McClain
Those are the only 4 in the entire organization I’d consider untouchable.
Everyone else has a price
EVERYONE has a price. It’s just some have extremely high prices like the ones you mentioned.
Put Abbot and Steer on that list. I sure don’t want to lose them either.
Abbott and Steer would definitely be two on the next tier for me along with India, Friedl, and probably Marte
Would be a gut punch to see go but can see where a value out for value in deal might be prudent
Started to put Stephenson on their, but more I think he’s probably more of an untouchable only because the Reds have no other passable C option
Lowder, Collier, and Jay Allen for Vlad Jr, contingent on an extension being worked out in a 72 hour window.
I like that idea. there probably isn’t a way to get that done without including Lowder and Collier which is sad.
Even if the blue jays were willing to trade Guerrero (they’re not), The Castellinis will never spend what it takes to extend Vlad Jr.
Vlad can’t seem to fix pounding the ball into the ground. His swing has been broke for most of the past 3 years. He’s fat n slow and every grounder is a near guaranteed out. IF we then pay him big, we are unlikely to sniff any serious contention for the forseeable future…unless some hitting coach actually gets through to Vlad to revamp his swing in the coming off-season.
Any idea what Conor Phillips is doing in AZ? What the game plan is?
ANY of them! Imo, none of our prospects are untouchable.
Chase Burns BETTER BE !!!
By MLB rule, Burns cannot be traded until after the completion of this years’ World Series. The rule used to read recent draftees could not be traded for a year after the draft, but the rule changed several years ago.
It’s not that any of them are untouchable, it’s that only a few of them are likely to have real value.
I get what you’re saying . No one is untouchable at the right price, but, unfortunately , I don’t see any of our current prospects, outside of of maybe Burns(and that s only because he’s so new) as being good enough to deem as elite and “untradeble”. That’s just me.
Sorry but I am not at the same point. I think injured guys like Arroyo and Williamson have a lot more trade value than Montas or Candy in a trade with a rebuilder. Montas or India may offer a contender some meaningful value over the next few months but who does a rebuilder want? The Cubs have Hoerner on the block. The Nats Thomas. I don’t think either one of those guys is our big bat but I would bet you could get one or the other with our list of prospects. The only thing Montas or Sims is going to get you is a #10 prospect at best. How does that improve the team this year or next year. Krall’s problem is his over valuing of prospects. Reference 2023 and the imports that were being offered for Phillips and Petty. The Reds put Dunn, Hurtubise, Capel, and Hinds in starter roles but none of the other 29 teams want them in a trade? Tell me how that makes sense.
Those guys might have more trade value, but that’s not the point. The point is that their value simply isn’t high enough to bring back the types of guys the Reds *should* be trying to acquire right now on the trade market.
The Mariners just traded their Nos. 14 and 15 prospects for Randy Arzozerana. 14 and 15 is a retry weak offer. Not the big bat to your point but an everyday OF that would helped this club.
Those guys probably were not the #14 and #15 prospects in the Mariners system. They used to be at some point in the past. And there’s a PTBNL, of which we have no idea of that guys value. Maybe it’s a guy with Connor Phillips-like value from when the Reds got him as a PTBNL. Or maybe it’s just a throw in.
Reading up on both players we do know about – it seems those in the know see both guys as on a fast, upward trend in their value this season.
The pitcher, Brody Hopkins, that Seattle sent to Tampa Bay in this deal is the younger brother of former Reds prospect TJ Hopkins.
These guys would have be top 5ish and top 10ish in the Mariners system had the updated rankings happened before the trade. If we had a 20 year CF with a plus arm in Low A with a .872 OPS we’d probably have him as our 3rd or 4th rated prospect. 9 HR so far this year and Smith projects to be a 20+ HR guy at the big league level. Solid athletic 6’3″ frame.
Rob you might have missed the PTBNL. That is likely the centerpiece of the deal. In addition, pre-season rankings mean nothing right now, and Seattle’s farm is better than most.
So you’re missing a lot of context here.
I think our prospects, both position players and pitchers, still have some value as part of a package deal. Also throwing in some off the major league roster could help as well. There are all kinds of ways to get creative in making trades. Fraley for example could help in a deal or even Benson to some degree. If we get an every day outfielder we really don’t need either one too much. Fairchild could help as a throw in. Marte, though having a rough time getting going, still has very good value I would think. He, for a guy such as Robert Jr. would be something worth thinking about in my view. Again, there are all kinds of ways to get creative. Do I have faith that Krall & Co. will actually make a trade to help us win….Nope. If they do somehow make a “blockbuster” trade I’ll be more than happy to write a formal letter of apology on here….not that he/they would read it.
Well, I think the Reds count on some prospects who could be intriguing to other teams at least to get two good players no necessarily should be stars that may help the team being better than the guys underperforming right now… I think Collier, Hector Rodríguez, Nestor Lorant, Julian Aguiar,Adam Serwinowski, Ricardo Cabrera, Sammy Stafura even Rece Hinds and others could have some value to choose among them… I guess the teams isn’t going just on the numbers they already have this season but should evaluate other aspects too…
One of those guys isn’t moving the needle in the slightest way in a trade. Three of those guys are probably considered good prospects by most teams in baseball. The others would be good additions to a deal but not remotely enough to be the main guy for someone more than a middle reliever/utility guy.
I think it would be smart just to stand Pat at the trade deadline, realize we’ve been bitten by the injury bug again and going to next season with this team realizing we’ve got a young team on the verge, do you agree?
Yeah, I mean, as an example, the Reds could make a 2-or-3-player package from the list I mentioned to at least get a batter who could help boost the offense..IDK if even could include one of the short-term bullpen pitchers in the deal…
I don’t think the reds will be buyers or sellers at the deadline. The team will look to go into the off season trying to get healthy and find a hitter for the outfield for next year. That is my wish but I don’t have much hope. We have a good young nucleus of starting pitchers to build around. Getting McCain, TJ and CES back next year and adding a hitter in FA could make this a competitive team.
We will, like everyone else, have our share of injuries next year. Put that on top of losing $50M of free agents means much more than signing a big bat. After October,I could easily needing a mid level starting pitcher, 3 bullpen pieces, and 1-2 OF bats. Or we could again go into the year counting on bounce back years from Benson, Friedl, CES, Ashcraft, and Marte. The latter might be reasonable to some degree but it is Krall foolery to come close to believing more than half of them are going to be successful. We all have seen that the present roster is short 1-2 pieces on offense.
I see no reason to be buyers, unless a younger MLB player with upside is dangled at a lacking position. Now, if no buyers then they darn well better be sellers. Any pending FA reliever, anyone not seen as part of the lineup by opending day 2026.
If they can get a good deal for India or Candeilero, they’d better pull the trigger.
Martinez shold also DEFINITELY be traded if any team is itching to get his flexibility into their bullpen/SP5 slot.
Holding on to FAs or keeping underperfoming players that other contending teams see filling a need (depth), LH or RH bat, etc, is malpractice.
This season is a wrap. Trade some of the BP arms, and if you can get anything for Montas, do it.
If we acquire anyone, it should only be for people who are controlable next year or beyond.
If we trade any of our Offensive players, then we better have a near ready replacement in return. 2025 like 2024 has the possibility to be good, but Krall will need to add to the overall team to get us to the next level.
@MBS I agree with you. Get Montas off the books and find a hitter to spend his money on. Other than Candy there is no offensive players making any money.
Agree
Montas, Martinez (better be gone), India, Candeilero, Alexis Diaz (please, please), and pretty much any other RP. We might have below average bullpen next year, but our BP this year didn’t exactly move the needle, injuries not-withstanding.
The problem is the Reds continually trade away quality players. You have a young team with a lot of talent. India should not be traded.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/athletics-mason-miller-injured-list-broken-finger-trade-deadline.html
Could this make our relievers more valuable? Bad timing for the A’s.
I thought the same thing when I saw that.
I would still trade for miller. The time is now to be trading for guys for next year. Might get him on the cheap now.
I wouldn’t mind if they could pull it off.
Ageed, trade em Diaz and Montas or Martinez (and some lottery ticket low A prospect) for Miller. Then we’d have a real closer that doesn’t stink every third outing.
I heard a long discussion on Miller the other day on MLB Radio. The consensus was that Miller is seen by buyers has an injury risk (shoulder in 2022 and elbow last year), and that no team would give up enough to justify the A’s to jettison him in his rookie year. Teams would make solid offers, but the thought was that Miller is too valuable over the long run to make any deal palatable to the A’s for now.
They also thought that Miller was a candidate to be a starter over the long run, assuming the injury risk played out fine. The current injury to his pinkie is not a major issue.
We have a young team on the verge. The season was messed up by the injury bug. It’s not the manager’s fault, it’s not the player’s fault. Every key piece is under team control for at least a couple more years. The red should stand Pat with what they have play out the rest of the season with everything they got see how it goes and come into next year with gusto.
Agree Daveyb. Stay with the plan. The future is bright. And, IMO, don’t trade the glue – Jonathan India.
One player that may be of interest to the Mariners in Livian Soto, SS who’s played pretty well in Louisville. He’s 24 and they just endured a couple injuries to their IF. Certainly, this wouldn’t be a major deal in a one for one trade, but I could see him being included in a package for India. I don’t see a future for Soto for the Reds with Eli, Marte and McClain all capable IF’s.
Yep. Especially since David Bell won’t hardly play him when he’s up anyway.
This franchise is on an endless rinse and repeat cycle. No realistic postseason run to be excited about, but not enough depth in the farm system or budget to improve. Not a rebuild, but not a year or two away. No real direction, but no reason to find a new manager. It’s really gotten old to hear about draft picks and players in single-A. And then comes the occasional stray shot: “Reds might be in the market for a big bat.” It’s time to start living by words of The Who, folks: “We won’t get fooled again.”
As they say south of the border mañana never comes. Suppose that is in a mural on the wall behind Krall’s desk?
Yes! Except he isn’t sure what it means.
@Johnny>> A couple of decades ago before the drug wars, we attended a family wedding south of the border. The wedding/ afterparty venue was owned by a US expat family. The operator at the time told us it had taken her several years to get it straight that “mañana” did NOT typically mean in the morning or tomorrow unless the speaker very especially made it clear that it did. Otherwise, it meant at some future time 😉
So maybe Krall does know that meaning 😉
Reds just passed on a big bat,his name was charlie condon
Absolutely! It seems their scouting dept is in Winston-Salem, with no funds to travel.
Pitching is the Reds name of the game today, in contrast to past history. One result is more one-run losses than a winning team usually has .
Doug, any idea what could have happened in the Minors this year? The fact that everyone besides about 5 players aren’t progressing. Chattanooga has plenty of talent but might be the worst team the system has ever fielded. Is there any hint to why this is happening?
Yeah, Amarillo, I’d like to hear Doug’s take on Chattanooga too. I’ve watched MiLB for over 60 years and this Chattanooga team is the worst I’ve ever seen. Thier infield has no range on defense, if a ball is not hit at them they have no chance to field it(caveat here, I haven’t seen enough of Pitelli to judge him). Two years ago they thought enough of Gozzo/Timpanelli to put them in the AFL but now each has an ERA around 8. Are they hurt? One of their starters has a 1-12 record. They could very well lose 100 games, something that’s hard to do in MiLB. Anyway, Doug, would appreciate your thoughts on Chattanooga.
There is very, very little position player talent in Chattanooga. The dreadful 2020 mlb draft is main culprit. We also didn’t develop any decent international free agents for a few years 2017~2020 (with one very big exception).
There is a huge gap between players at big league club and high A Dayton. No help coming soon.
Regarding free agent outfielders – I count only 4 that are needle movers. Teoscar Hernandez, bellinger, Tyler O’Neil, and Santander. Gonna be fierce competition and bidding for those guys. Lots of teams need quality outfielders and these guys are going to want to play for a sure fire contender.
Every team other than Chattanooga is .500 or better. I haven’t seen them, but Chattanooga is reputed to be the worst defensive team in North America, which may be impacting the pitchers.
The Reds promoted CES, Elly, Marte, Steer and McLain last season, and Friedl the year before that. It stood to reason that they would be light in the high minors this season offensively, and then Arroyo went down in a game in Scottsdale.
Some of the age 19-20 hitters are doing fine: Ricardo Cabrera and Sammy Stafura at age 19 have done well in Daytona. Stewart (age 20) is hitting well at Dayton at age 20; Cam Collier is league average at age 19. Carlos Jorge (20) got off to a bad start but has an OPS of .818 in July. Henry Rodriguez (20) is hitting .285 with 9 HRs; he needs to walk more, but the flip side is that he strikes only about 11.5% of the time.
They have some talent, but Doug is right that they don’t have a whole lot other than Lowder or maybe Stewart that other teams would want in a trade for a good, controllable major league player.
Reds has a need for a right handed hitter for the outfield but didn’t get it done.As thin as it is regarding prospects it can change just as soon as players return or players get better.Based on what Krall has said he wasn’t going to trade prospects so we play with whats here now.Maybe they pick up a player in a trade but probably nothing that matters much.Slater for Young is about it IMO.Would love to see what Hinds could do with regular playing time.If Marte and Benson get it why not Hinds?
And by the way … every team has injuries. Good franchises overcome. The thought that the Reds’ season hinged mostly on a guy who’s played a total of 89 career MLB games just gives the FO another lame excuse.
I agree to a large degree. We see that the Reds play top teams tough and then wilt versus supposedly equal or lesser opposition, That’s about getting and staying focused at the level required at MLB.
Also, they had a lack of willingness to adapt to how they played the game with the injured guys out. When a team believes it has lost offensive potential, it needs to *triple* down on fundamental play, quit giving away outs on the bases plus, and allowing the opposition 4 or more outs in their at bats.
Exactly Jim but what bothers me more is the manager is just unwilling to call things as they actually are and what we actually see on the field.He even suggests at times what we see aren’t really mistakes and defends the sloppy play.Last night Larueno the kid with the Braves broke for home and was trapped and tagged out as the go ahead run.Lots of debate among the announcers as to if a sign was missed or was it to be a safety squeeze etc.When asked in the post game about the play,the Braves manager said he didn’t know why he broke for home and that he didn’t give any sign at all.He added we had two good hitters up next and the play was unacceptable.The kid missed a fly ball later in the bottom of the tenth that let in the winning run for the Mets.KId had a really really bad game for sure but the skipper didn’t let him off the hook to the media and got to think there was a serious conversation later on with the player.The Reds manger would have defended him probably like he has done with his players saying he was trying to get a good jump etc etc etc.Thats the difference between a manager that will not put up with sloppy play and a manager that does and makes excuses for it.Its a winning team with a winning culture and a losing team with a losing culture.If you teach and expect good play you will get it but if you don’t teach or expect good play you have the Reds in 2024.It just is what it is and regardless if the Reds buy or sell,if leadership remains it will be the same results on the field.
Listening to The Riverfront broadcast this morning.
Nate Dotson about David Bell – “It’s the same B.S. day in and day out”.
Nate Dotson – “I’m all in for firing David Bell now.”
My only ‘untouchables’ are Duno and Lowder. With multiple top 100 prospects not on the cusp of the bigs and with the Reds being pretty well set positionally for years they’re in a unique position to cash in some chips to help the big club near term. To that end they should absolutely be in the mix for guys like Crochet, Skubal, Rooker, Guerrero. etc.
Second, relief pitching is at a premium much more now than in the offseason. Fortunately, the Reds have some depth. Trading Farmer, Sims, Wilson doesn’t move the needle near or long term so it’s almost like why bother…and they still have some utility down the stretch if the team makes a run. But I would take a serious look at moving Diaz. Despite his struggles, he’s a name guy with elite stuff and multiple years of control. He would fetch a premium prospect that could help now. Maybe others disagree, but I think Zach Maxwell would have a similar conversion rate.
Sure, and while they’re at it, why don’t the Reds use the same mediocre guys on the farm (which was the topic of this entire story, btw) to grab not only Guerrero and Skubal, but Mason Miller and Ketel Marte. And I’m sure the Reds would pay them good money, too.
The value of Diaz could be extremely high right now considering Miller just went down.
I don’t think the Reds will trade Diaz. He has a lot to give the team yet. I know he has been inconsistent, but I just have a feeling he will be staying.
Diaz is nothing special, name only and Edwin is sullying that too. LEt some other sucker team pony up a top 10 prospect (not worth top 5) and watch him walk the bases full once a week.
@Sultasn, so you’re making all the Reds top 100 prospects untouchable, and yet somehow you want the Reds to trade for a guy (Crochet, Skubal, Rooker, or Guerrero) that will likely require multiple 100 prospects to facilitate a trade.
Reading between the lines, you seem to be suggesting the Reds stand pat.
Robert and Kopech for Lowder, Collier and Phillips. Robert projects for 40 HR and SB at present. Nah, we could not use that much production on this squad.
Ha. In between when I started typing my comment and posted it, you were thinking along the same lines. Agree, this would be a deal they should do.
I think fans in Cincinnati would quickly turn on Louis Robert jr. He is just unable to stay healthy.
Since his ML debuting 2020, Louis Robert Jr. has played in this many games:
2020 – 56
2021 – 68
2022 – 98
2023 – 145
2024. – 49
I am not saying Louis Robert Jr. would be a total bust should the Reds acquire him, but I do think there is a substantial risk, especially if it took Lowder or Collier to obtain him.
The Reds had an opportunity to address their need for a middle of a line up outfield bat in the draft, so apparently they don’t feel it’s a pressing need.
You’re probably right look how fans have been with India. Suddenly a lot of fans are like, oh we need to keep him. I have always wanted to keep him around. If he was healthy, he would be a nice addition to the offense. Like you have pointed out that just has not happened too often.
Lodolo has a similar history and seems to be holding up. Probably at half the salary though.
I’m for the deal, Make the call.
Nobody is taking Phillips.
@Dufus, no chance. You wouldn’t get Robert alone with just one top 100 prospect being offered from the Reds side. Add Duno and you might get just Robert.
Given that they just paid Chase Burns the highest signing bonus ever (for like 2 hours or so), it seems likely that he tops the list of ‘untouchables.’ The next question for me is, does that make Rhett Lowder available? No, he hasn’t been lights out this year, but he’s still young and his stuff still plays. He has significant value. A package of Lowder and one of the young IF prospects that’s currently blocked would have to sound pretty good to one of the rebuilding clubs. Would say Lowder, Collier, and maybe a flier ticket bring back a Robert, Jr. or comparable? If it would, I would say that’s a deal they should do. Middling trades for depth is a waste of time, and should be avoided.
Luis Robert Jr. is currently batting .222 with 12 home runs and .759 OPS. Given that he is often injured, I would not trade Lowder for Robert straight up, let alone Lowder and Collier.
Robert Jr’s batting average has dropped an average of 37 points in each of the last 3 seasons.
What he lacks in hitting ability, he more than makes up for in hype.
When healthy, he’s a better/younger version of Candy, with more power and defense.
Certainly a valid concern. When healthy, his career work looks MVP worthy, and such a player would be a bargain for 2 or 3 prospects, even good ones. Robert, Jr. just hasn’t stayed on the field; that’s clearly the biggest risk with him.
That’s why it might be the best time to trade for him.
I would agree, but the last time I agreed, my comment was deleted.
So, perhaps we all need to pretend Robert Jr is a great hitter, and hasn’t seen his batting average continually drop by about 35 points in each of the past 3 seasons?
Agree, not impressed w/ Robert; too much risk 4 the price. Reds have a better option moving EDLC to CF! Still like Kjerstad fm Baltimore. He’s has pop, 1B/OF capable, good pedigree & blocked fm playing. Think he’d cost a lot less; probably require SP – Abbott & a young prospect.
Elly De La Cruz is literally one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball. Yes, he makes some errors on routine plays. Doesn’t matter – he more than makes up for it with the other plays he makes that no one else can. And those routine play errors are almost assuredly going to stop happening as often. Moving him off of shortstop would be an enormous mistake.
@Doug
I came into this season openminded on Elly at SS since McLain was injured and he was the defacto SS for 2024.
Ive seen enough
Hes the Reds SS . He will cut down on the errors but the range and arm and plays out in LF and superstar plays from the hole make him an elite SS. Throw in his hitting and speed and reds have a superstar
Elly is the Reds SS. McLain is 2b
Excited to see this double play combo for years to come.
Nok, agree totally on the potential midland acquisitions sition. Tommy Pham ain’t going much t this club. Yes, he is an everyday OF and that will some….. probably not enough though at this stage. We need an 800+ OPS guy who will ba 3rd or 4th and hit 30 HRs. I think Robert could be that guy. The other selling point here is his friendly contract. $12M this year, $15M in 2025, and club options in 26-27. Meaning if we don’t like him we can trade him or dump him without cost. Of the OFs out there he is possibly the contract friendliest and maybe the best. Probably cost a couple top 10-15 prospects. Arozerena just went for #14 and #15 prospect. Robert is a little more talented than that. Th
Chicken/egg. Lowder hasn’t been good, but all reports say his defense isn’t helping his stats. That said, his value isn’t quite as high as it was this time last year.
I’d rather hold on to him unless someone still values him as a top 7 draft pick. Anyone we trade for better have 2+ years of control (and moderately affordable at that) or forget it. We’d be trading for a 1+ and done.
I’ve been as disappointed as anyone this year. Injuries at the ML have been off the charts. Injuries, non performance, and a suspension at the Minor League level have been killers. But, 2024 is only the beginning of an open window. They added Burns, Adolpho Sanchez, and others. ELDC is becoming a star. Greene is learning to pitch. Lodolo is good when healthy. Steer is steady. Abbott is good. The foundation is there. They need to build on it.
I am with you Greenfield. There is nothing more entertaining to me than watching the Reds. Been that way for 50 years. This team is closer to being a contender for a while. Despite the frustration we have seen (injuries, sloppiness, playing poorly against bad teams), there is a lot of good going on and will continue in the near future. Stay the course.
I know this is going to sound odd, but we should sign Willy Adames, and Danny Jansen the offseason. I know we don’t need another SS, but if we got him we could do some things in 2025. Both of these guys are winners, and they could be leaders on this young team.
Adames (4Yx$18M)
Jansen (2Yx$12M)
DH India C Stephenson 1B CES
2B Adames SS McLain 3B EDLC
RF Marte CF Friedl LF Steer
3B/1B/DH Candy
SS/2B (Espy/Soto)
RF/CF/LF Fraley
C Jansen
I don’t like the OF free agents a lot next offseason, so this seems like a good way to improve the roster without breaking the bank. We’d add 2 MLB quality bats, and improve our defense.
With Adames and McLain up the middle we’d be set, and EDLC has GG 3B written all over him imo. Marte has the speed and arm to make a very good RF. I forgot a bit about Hinds, but by the end of the year, will we all? Hopefully he continues to rake. Also send Benson to AAA, and one of Espy or Soto.
My first thought when I read the article…. “clickbait”! But then I started to consider where the Reds were last year at this time… and Doug’s article really does make you step back and ask “what happened here?”
In July, 2023, Krall was a genius, a talented young MLB roster needed to gain experience, a top 5-10 minor league ranking was producing and some expiring high dollar contracts would allow for “filling the holes”.
3 things have baffled me since then; 1. extending David Bell mid-season, 2. not signing a decent corner OFer last off-season, 3. not drafting Charlie Condon.
It’s rather breath-taking that so much could change from good to bad across the board. Meanwhile, the Royals, Guardians & Twins take positive steps forward as small market teams.
“ 3 things have baffled me since then; 1. extending David Bell mid-season, 2. not signing a decent corner OFer last off-season, 3. not drafting Charlie Condon.”
@Cincy6464 this perfectly describes my frustration. I will add
4. Not adding a starting pitcher at last years deadline.
5. Krall saying “No regrets” after missing the post s son by 2 games.
6. Signing Candelario and
7. Not trading for an established starting pitcher during the off season and
8. Signing Frankie Montas for $15 M after pledging publicly not to sign any more reclamation projects.
8. Bell stating publicly that the Reds would “welcome Marte back with open arms” after he was suspended for using PEDS. Keep in mind, he took These illegal drugs to gain an advantage over his teammates in Spring Training.
My understanding was that Marte took some prohibited ‘medications’ in an effort to assist recovery from an injury sustained during Fall league back home in the DR.
It wasn’t a case of ‘trying to get an illegal advantage over his teammates’.
That’s way off base and unfair as well.
No denying that he took banned substances and was rightly punished, but there’s no cause, and no reason, to try to exaggerate the issue.
The kid made a mistake and served his punishment and Bell and his teammates welcomed him back.
What’s not to support about that?
Besides, you traded your best pitcher for the guy.
Ban him for life? Trade him for Rookie Davis?
Pretty draconian and over-dramatic.
Now, if he just starts hitting again.
Your understanding is incorrect. Maybe. Marte says he has no idea how the drugs got into his system. He did seem to imply, though, that it was probably from something he got in the DR where their supplements are not tested/controlled in the same way that they are here in the US.
How would you feel Harry if you were trying to feed your family playing baseball and some guy comes along using PEDs putting you further down the pecking order?
I feel sorry for those guys and not the guy breaking the rules.
We have no idea when Marte started using PEDs. no idea.
Votto4life
We also have no idea that he purposefully took them. Or if anyone else is or isn’t taking them.
There’s a reason that one failed test doesn’t equal exile. Sometimes you really do get tainted supplements – there are multiple athletes who have proven this to be the case ranging from NFL players to UFC fighters to Boxers. There are also several cases of athletes having suspensions overturned because they ATE BEEF that came from cows so pumped full of drugs to make them bigger that they wound up testing positive for it.
Reds will regret if they trade Lowder ….. the dude is too good not to figure it out . No way I include him in a deal at this particular point in time , no absolute way . Can’t give up on this guy right now , his stuff is too good. Just my 2 cents …
It’s fine if you like Lowder, I like Lowder too, but don’t expect to get any sort of impact player if you aren’t trading somebody like Lowder.
You’re right and that’s true …. But I just wouldn’t trade him right now …. I don’t trust Krall one single bit is also a huge factor for me .
Howsam used to say, You Can’t Trade A Bucket Of Ashes For A Bucket Of Coal.
He made good and bad trades. His best midseason trades were Pappas/Johnson/Davidson for Cloninger/Woodward/Carroll; Duffy/Geishert for Foster; and Zachry/Flynn/Henderson/Norman for Seaver.
The best recent midseason trade by Jocketty was Encarnacion/Roenicke/Stewart for Rolen. The best recent offseason trade by him was Volquez/Alonso/Boxberger/Grandal for Latos.
The Reds don’t have many buckets of coal to trade right now.
I would really debate the Encarnacion/Rolen deal. Love Rolen, but Encarnacion went on to hit 350 more homers and 1000 rbi. Rolen basically had 1 good year with the Reds and 2 mediocre to poor years leading to retirement.
Debatable for sure. Reds got one good year out of Gene Freese. Two good years out of Joey Jay. Two years out of Don Blasingame.
We traded Juan Pizzaro (and Cal McLish) for Freese. Roy McMillan for Jay. And Ed Bailey for Blasingame. Pizarro, McMillan, Bailey went on to have several (or more) good years.
Encarnacion was a DH. He couldn’t be DH for Reds. The Reds don’t win in 2010 or 2012 without Rolen.
The Blue Jays actually put Encarnacion on waivers after the 2010 season, and the A’s claimed him. The A’s then released him in December 2010, and the Jays signed him back.
He didn’t have an OPS+ of over 111 until 2012, in his age 29 season. Over the next 8 years, he had a cumulative OPS+ of 138. He was a bit like Justin Turner as a later bloomer.
Thank you. The Rolen trade is the most overrated deal in Reds’ history. He had one season in Cincy with more than 39 RBIs, played 100+ games once. Everyone talks about his “presence,” without giving any real insight as to what the heck they’re talking about. He was rarely available. Reds gave up a guy who reliably put up an OPS of .880 or more every year. I don’t care if he was a DH … that was not anything close to an historically great trade for the Reds.
Oldtimer: Not sure your point on some of these other trades, but still say that the Rolen trade is vastly overrated by Reds fans
We can debate the trades for Joey Jay, Blazer, Gene Freese(worst ankle break I ever saw), giving away Mike Cuellar, Claude Osteen and Curt Flood, but the worst was Jerry Lynch for Bob Skinner.
Heck, don’t forget my namesake, 5x All Star Bob Purkey from Pittsburgh for Don Gross!
I must admit that I laugh every time someone talks about all the “busts” in the farm system. Yet they are convinced that if Krall would just trade two or three of those “busts” that the Reds would suddenly bring in the missing pieces necessary to transform the team into a contender.
The way I see it is that if all these prospects are good enough to land talent for a rental season, then they are good enough talent within their own rights to hang on to in order to contribute for several seasons.
The grass always seems to be greener in someone else’s pasture.
Or maybe they don’t hold much value as trade chips or as Red’s prospects.
Cease tossed a no-hitter yesterday. Reds decided to hold onto their prospects and sign Montas instead. Bad move. Montas needs to go, as do Candy, India, Benson, Cruz, Farmer, Martinez, and Fairchild. And I think the old Diaz for Baty idea is worth discussing again.
Many Reds players will most likely have better seasons next year, this one being the second year blues for so many.
As noted previously, I think Diaz would have some good value right now. Closer by committee is just fine when you are 4 games under .500. That is, of course, if you get some good value for him with a contender needing BP help, like LAD, PHL, NYY, etc.
Totally agree about taking offers on Diaz. Use Moll or Santillan if he continues to stay healthy and dominant as the closer. Diaz plus another arm and perhaps a position player may get the RH OF bat we need.
Would love to see the Reds go after Brent Rooker and Tyler Anderson. I doubt they could land either one.
There are a couple of other players that could help that wouldn’t require our top prospects. OF Miguel Andujar (A’s) and LHP Trevor Rogers (Marlins). Andujar is hitting.387 in his last 7 games and Rogers could replace Montas if he’s traded.
Grab Heasley?