The Reds (15-12) and Rangers (14-14) meet Sunday afternoon in the rubber match of this weekend series in Arlington. Lefty Andrew Abbott will take the mound for the Reds, while right-hander Dane Dunning goes for the Rangers. First pitch is at 2:35 p.m. EDT.

Lineups

Cincinnati Reds

Texas Rangers

Will Benson – LF Marcus Semien – 2B
Elly De La Cruz – SS Corey Seager – SS
Spencer Steer – 1B Nathaniel Lowe – 1B
Jake Fraley – RF Adolis Garcia – RF
Jonathan India – 2B Jonah Heim – C
Nick Martini – DH Wyatt Langford – LF
Jeimer Candelario – 3B Davis Wendzel – 3B
Luke Maile – C Andrew Knizner – DH
Stuart Fairchild – CF Leody Taveras – CF

Starting Pitchers

Pitcher IP ERA WHIP BB K
Andrew Abbott 27.2 2.60 1.12 11 20
Dane Dunning 27.1 4.61 1.28 16 29
Links: Andrew Abbott’s Stats | Dane Dunning’s Stats

Andrew Abbott

Three of Abbott’s five starts have been on the road. That hasn’t been a problem for him though, as he hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his starts thus far, while striking out 20. If there’s one thing you’re trying to find to critique him, it might be his walk rate. Abbott has walked 11 batters in 27.2 innings, but his last start against the Phillies contributed to that as he walked four at GABP last Tuesday.

Abbott’s strikeout rate is down 8.4% from a year ago (26.1% in 2023 vs. 17.7% in 2024). However, his Hard Hit% is down to 32.1% from 42.5% in 2023. This means even though he’s not striking out batters as often, those batters aren’t hitting the ball as hard when they are making contact. Abbott’s been really good to start the season, and the fact that I had to dig to find something to critique about him proves it.

Splits

Split PA H 2B 3B HR BB% K% AVG OBP SLG
RHH 89 16 7 1 3 11% 17% .203 .292 .430
LHH 24 4 0 0 0 4% 21% .182 .250 .182

Pitch Usage

4-Seam Curve Sweeper Change
Velo 92.9 80.2 82.1 85.0
Usage 54% 14% 16% 16%

Dane Dunning

Dunning is in the bottom 1-4% in hard hit percentage, exit velocity, and many of the “expected” stats (xERA, xSLG). This is largely because lefties have crushed him in 2024. In only 48 plate appearances, left-handed hitters have five home runs against Dunning and an OPS of .995. This is worse than his career splits against lefties. In his career, lefty batters have a .781 OPS against him.

If there’s one thing Dunning has done right, however, it’s strike out batters. He may be giving up home runs, but he also has 29 strikeouts in 27.1 innings. Most of those strikeouts are to right-handed batters, but he does have a 23% strikeout rate against lefties as well. It seems like it’s been all-or-nothing for Dunning in 2024.

Splits

Split PA H 2B 3B HR BB% K% AVG OBP SLG
RHH 68 11 2 0 2 13% 26% .190 .309 .328
LHH 48 8 2 0 5 15% 23% .205 .354 .641

Pitch Usage

4-Seam 2-Seam Cutter Curve Slider Change
Velo 89.6 90.2 88.4 76.0 81.1 85.7
Usage 6% 34% 16% 6% 27% 12%

Game Details:

  • Time: 2:35 p.m. EDT
  • Place: Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX
  • Roof Status: Unknown
  • TV: Bally Sports Ohio
  • Radio: 700 WLW

News and Notes

Jerry Narron and Nick Krall

Fangraphs’ David Laurila spoke with former Reds manager Jerry Narron for his Sunday Notes column and he talks about how he used to go to a “guy doing some analytics stuff and video scouting” for help with the lineup back in 2005-2007 when he was the manager. Turns out that guy was none other than Nick Krall.

Division Standings

Team W L GB
Milwaukee 17 9
Chicago 17 10 0.5
Cincinnati 15 12 2.5
Pittsburgh 14 14 4.0
St. Louis 13 14 4.5

98 Responses

  1. Old-school

    Some calling for changes to the lineup. Id stay the course so Benson gets regular at bats at the top of the lineup and India plays 2b every day and Fairchild and Martini get regular at bats and playing time. No need to bring anyone up now when Friedl comes back in a few weeks. See what things look like at Memorial Day and let the outfielders in AAA and ford prove they ve earned the promotion

    The Benson K numbers and Fairchild ISO and wRC+ are a concern but let them play through it so sample size becomes more significant

    Bubba is the obvious exception

    • LDS

      Folks here have a lot of confidence that Friedl will be back in May. That could be very optimistic, despite Bell comments to the contrary. I’d still like Krall to go get a good OF and DFA Thompson. He’s fast but it’s unlikely he’ll ever hit.

      • CI3J

        True, I’m still not convinced Friedl will be all that effective when he comes back in May. Wrist injuries tend to sap power long after they are “healed”, so we could be looking at a pretty ineffective Friedl until after the ASB, or even longer.

        Still, as long as he has his batter’s eye, he should be able to get on base and force pitchers to throw a lot of pitches, which is useful.

      • Optimist

        OK, but where would Krall “go get a good OF”?

  2. Indy Red Man

    Dunning is a run of the mill righty so it should be right in our wheelhouse, but we’re so unpredictable? Took a flyer on Elly HR, Dunning over 2.5 er, Reds win. $25-$357.
    Betting on HRs is dumb for the most part, but Dunning has a problem w/long balls

    • JA

      A young unpeedictable team.
      One day they don’t hit anybody, next day they are in flow

  3. Old-school

    Its reported friedl is playing games defensively and bunting in arizona and could start a rehab assignment in AAA mid Week

    That looks like potentially a return in mid May

    • Mark Moore

      +500

      As long as they don’t rush him. Wrist fractures are tricky.

    • JayTheRed

      Just because a guy return does not mean they will produce. Someone above pointed out that wrist injury saps your power. I don’t expect him to be back to more normal Friedl until like a month after he gets back in the lineup, maybe more.

  4. Mark Moore

    Dunning (so I’m hearing) is a bit erratic. Time for some patience today. Wish Elly could get a day off, but I realize that isn’t easy to engineer.

    Taking a break from my project to KICK THIS PIG!!!

  5. Mark Moore

    Either the app or Roku did it’s little glitch during Steer’s AB. I’m guessing by the commercials I didn’t miss anything spectacular.

  6. Beaufort Red

    Anybody got the percentage of strikeouts for Benson as leadoff versus 8th or lower? Just curious.

  7. Mark Moore

    OK, got the no-no monkey out of the way. Now focus on the batters.

  8. Mark Moore

    Cement mixers will find their way out of this park.

  9. Mark Moore

    I’m not saying who, but I’m pretty sure a different fielder would have grabbed that worm burner.

  10. Mark Moore

    I can tell you now, I’m not going to stick around long at this rate. A 4-run hole when we’re not hitting won’t be easy to overcome.

  11. Indy Red Man

    Wow, got the first 2 no problem.

  12. dimondfvr

    Twenty five pitches for Abbott in first. Relax, by the 4th he’ll have thrown a hundred and Bell will think about pulling him from the game! LOL

  13. RedsGettingBetter

    After 2 outs bases empty the wheels got off the cart

  14. dimondfvr

    I didn’t realize Dunning was this good (Tongue in Cheek)! Strikes out four of the six batters he’s faced!

  15. Indy Red Man

    Ok 1 more inning of this bull puckey and I’m also moving on. 2 out and 0-2 to Garcia to 4-0 hole then we strike out like crazy to a dude thats been getting mashed. Score 7 one day and get shutout on 3 hits the next

  16. RedsGettingBetter

    The Reds collecting 5 Ks out of 6 batters… My Lord what a game beginning today…Embarrassing

  17. dimondfvr

    I did read that he is a pretty good strike out pitcher according to Red Leg nation.

  18. Mark Moore

    OK, time to shake-shake-shake it off and hit a bit. We know we can do this.

    Oh, and who let Jobu go to the airport this morning when he crawled out of his drunken stupor?

  19. Indy Red Man

    Blown away by 89…ok. I was wrong on Candy. He blows like the South Pacific. Stole 45 mil like candy from a baby

    • Ted Alfred

      Not sure who it was a couple weeks back arguing with me about how Candy it was a good pickup and he’s been a good hitter 4 of the last 5 years….yada yada yada. He sucks at the plate and he’s below average defensively. Seems like a lot of guys get on base on grounders right at 3rd because he takes too long to get the ball out of his glove or slow delivery or whatever. Just another brutal FA signing.

  20. Roger Garrett

    Long way to go in this one.If our guy can hold them we will make some noise.It ain’t over yet but we have to hold em at 4 runs.

  21. Mark Moore

    Nice job by Steer and by Abbott to stick with that catch from the flip.

  22. Mark Moore

    OK, that one was NOT on Candyman … not sure the challenge will work.

    • Mark Moore

      Wow … that last angle sealed it.

  23. dimondfvr

    When does Bell give up on this Benson leadoff debacle!?

    • Mark Moore

      Asking honestly, but who do you want to see there? And I’m not saying keep Benson in that slot.

    • Beaufort Red

      Remember everyone was screaming to move him up in the lineup. Some guys just don’t respond well to the stress of leading iff. Don’t know if that’s Benson’s case but he sure is failing.

      • Mauired

        Yeah but moving him up from nine to leadoff is pretty extreme. Not sure that’s what everyone was asking for.

  24. Indy Red Man

    Why is it that every hitter that comes to the Reds basically ends his professional career? Candy had 39 doubles, 3 triples, 22 HRs, and 66 walks/hbp last year and now he’s completely worthless? Wil Myers, Moose, Shogo, etc. Rolen has to be the last guy we’ve picked up that wasn’t a shell of his former self

    • Old-school

      You could say the same for pitchers….smh

      Hernandez hembree strickland Doolittle ….,

    • JohnnySofa

      He hit .217 less than two years ago and has driven 70 runs one time (a contract year). Yeah, we should expect more than .167, but no one should be fooled by management’s dreams of him being a feared cleanup guy. He was never much.

      And by the way, Rolen had one decent year in Cincy. One. The Reds got ripped off in that trade, too, but fans have mentally rewritten history.

  25. Mark Moore

    And the no-no against us continues. I figure I’m good for about 1 more inning. Then maybe I’ll just put it on my phone while I go back out to work on my project.

  26. dimondfvr

    That’s a good point Mark. But it doesn’t say much for the Roster if we can’t come up with a decent leadoff hitter!

    • Mark Moore

      That’s the bigger problem IMO. And it could put a LOT of pressure on Friedl when he returns that may or may not pan out of the good.

  27. Indy Red Man

    Senzel 2 hrs. Nats down 7-0 now up 9-7. Miami is enjoying a swell season

      • Indy Red Man

        Thats 6 bases to round…surprised he didn’t blow a knee out

  28. Indy Red Man

    Milw down 4-0 and immediately tied it up. Cubs and Brewers can actually hit the ball

  29. Mark Moore

    OK, my project calls. My First Wife may want to keep watching. If it heats up, I’ll be back. Switching to my phone and no comments from me.

    • RedsMonk65

      Not exactly heating up, Mark, but simmering……

  30. Ron

    Candelario should handover his paycheck to the front office every week. He has down zero.

  31. RedsMonk65

    Geesh, the Reds sure are feast-or-famine when it comes to scoring runs. When they score, they tend to score a lot. When not, well, we have days like today. At least the no-hitter is off the table. C’mon guys, WAKE up!

    Other than the disastrous first frame, not a bad start by Abbott. Dunning (Dunning????) has simply been better.

    Unrelated note, for those interested: Nick Senzel is 2-4 today for the Nats, with 2 HRs and 5 RBIs. I still think it’s best the Reds moved on from him, but I do root for the guy.

  32. RedsMonk65

    Benson hits! Reds score! Miracles never cease.

  33. LT

    3rd time through the order. Let’s get a couple more hits.

  34. RedsMonk65

    Ridiculous:

    D. Dunning
    5.1 IP 3H 1R 0W 10K!!!

  35. Roger Garrett

    Yep and who knows from here on out.GO REDS.

  36. PhP

    I know Benson is struggling a bit, but I love him and EDC back to back. His OBP was. 365 last season so I’m willing to give him time. No one else pounding at the door to take the lead off spot over.

    • RedsMonk65

      Until Friedl is back, I see your point.

      • PhP

        Agreed. Slot Friedl lead off and just drop everyone one spot.

  37. Optimist

    Thought it was great to have him at 9th after the return last season – best 9th hitter in baseball. Should put him back there when they get one more returning bat – Friedl?

  38. RedsMonk65

    I no longer have any confidence in Sims in such situations.

  39. RedsMonk65

    Double play! Maybe…just maybe…a game of destiny???

  40. Jeff morris

    Good job by Sims getting out of this inning, BUT I would not put him in the next inning, as it seems to me, its his second inning of work, where he can by shaky, and give up a run and/or two.

  41. Jerry Tracey

    The reason baseball games are 9 innings is so that guys on here can retract their opinions made in the earlier innings.

  42. dimondfvr

    Candelario is 0-18 with 11 strikeouts in his recent at bats!! C’mon, can’t we do better?!

  43. LT

    Top of line up starting the 8th. Need to at least tie this game up.

  44. dimondfvr

    And the Reds have 14 more strikeouts today in seven innings! It’s not just embarrassing, its disgusting!

  45. Doc4uk

    Who was the worse signing. Moose or Candelaria . There was really nothing in Candelaria’s past justifying his three year deal Now we are stuck with him and he does not seem to have a clue at the plate. Krall will stick with him because otherwise he will have major egg on his face.

    • JohnnySofa

      Yep. Reds needed a power-hitting OF in the offseason and instead signed a utility player with a .240 career average. But he’ll hit a double in a few days and a few people on here will rejoice like dogs who just took their morning craps.

  46. Hanawi

    Fairchild is playing his way off the team as soon as Dunn is ready. Have no idea what happened to the power he showed early in his career. Maybe tried to adjust to make more contact and it hasn’t worked?

  47. CI3J

    Question: Which pitcher goes when Montas comes back? Or do they get rid of a position player?

    • Optimist

      Has to be a pitcher – 13/13 roster rule.

    • Tom Diesman

      Only pitchers that can be optioned are SP Greene/Lodolo/Ashcraft/Abbott and RP Diaz/Cruz/Moll. No obvious move there. Will be an interesting decision. Then they’ll have another one when Gibaut runs out of rehab.

  48. LarkinPhillips

    He looks safe to me. May be biased though.

  49. RedsMonk65

    Sorry, but Candelario just plain _____.

  50. Hanawi

    Last 16 PAs for Candelario, he has put the ball in play 2 times (both outs). 11 Ks and 3 walks. That’s quite a feat.

  51. Harry Stoner

    Sombrero time for Candelario.

    Krall should be squirming about that contract.

  52. dimondfvr

    I can not believe Bell doesn’t send a pinch hitter in for Candelario! What was he thinking?! Four strikeouts today. Now 0-19 and 12 strikeouts!

    • CI3J

      “Candelario is a veteran. He’s earned the right to play.”

      – David Bell

    • RedsMonk65

      Not defending Candelario nor Bell, but the options were somewhat limited. Both Stephenson and CES, apparently, have wrist injuries.

      • CI3J

        Right, I was mostly kidding.

        Although, it’s interesting Bell decided he could hit Espinal for Fairchild after Maile. I would have rather seen Espinal hit for Candelario.

  53. LarkinPhillips

    Hopefully Candy is hurt or something. He looks awful! His follow through looks weird and his throws to first are soft, maybe a shoulder injury?

  54. Doc4uk

    Candelaria . Four strike outs on the day

  55. Reddawg2012

    Unless Candy is hurt, that signing is a total bust. It’s too hard to win with 3-4 automatic outs in the lineup every game.

    • DW

      Yeah, he has been pathetic so far…but we are only one month into the season. It is still too early to consider it a bust, as bad as he has been so far.

      • Reddawg2012

        I think it’s more likely that he’s injured. There is no way that a guy with his track record just forgot how to play baseball.

  56. Jeff morris

    Candy cannot deliver. Strikes Out! Free Agent pickup not working out for the Reds. Free Agents need to sign and get paid every year, depending on how they produce. He is not producing, need to sit him down and get someone else in there, that at least gives us a chance!

    • Rob

      Unfortunately free agency doesn’t work that way. The scary part is when Marte and maybe McLain also, we are going to have extra IFs. And if Candy continues this way, he will not be a high value trade piece. Someone else will have to go. Wonderful way these things work.

  57. RedsMonk65

    Frustrating, to say the least. I thought for sure Reds could take 2 of 3 from the Rangers — and they should have.

    From another perspective — and not predicting anything here or making any comparisons — but the 1975 Reds were 16-12 after 28 games, only one game better than where the current club is at. So …

  58. Mark Moore

    On a positive note, I finished my project while we rallied. Then we got Candy crushed and I give it a big Stink. Fish. Pot!!

    • Jedi Joey

      Candy crushed. lol!!! That is a good way to describe striking out 4 times.

  59. LDS

    Dunning made fools of the Reds today. If the Reds don’t learn to give up their free swinging ways, it’s going to be a long year, punctuated with occasional surges that make them look like a good team. A 15-1 SO rate is unacceptable. Where’s the coaching? Where’s the accountability?

    Batting 27th, SO 6th and that’s before today.

  60. Jeff morris

    That being said, I love the Reds being resilient after being down 4-0 today, and making it a game losing 4-3. I believe the Reds will be competetive all year, if they can get healthy and keep healthy overall. Cannot emphasize this enough, they really miss Matt McClain.