Every year (some of) the crew here at Redleg Nation shares their predictions for the Cincinnati Reds record, and some share why and how they came up with that number. With Opening Day upon us, we’re kicking off our coverage for the day with our predictions.

Chad Dotson

Record: 95-67

95 wins. Because the Reds owe it to me. (Editors note: Same, Chad.)

Tom Mitsoff

Record: 86-76

The pitching is substantially improved if they can avoid serious injuries. My biggest concern is the middle-infield defense. It seems India might be back at second base, where he has proven to be less than adequate. I worried last year about De La Cruz’s defense at shortstop, and there are still major questions IMO. The offense should be consistently productive. McLain, the team’s most consistent rookie performer last year, will be a big loss.

Jim Walker

Record: 81-81

I sold short on the Reds last year, predicting them to win around 75 games give or take a couple games either way.

Even with the current injuries, the Reds start the season with a stronger team on the field than they did in 2023. Don’t overlook that Will Benson and Stuart Fairchild both came up big filling in for outfield injuries to help ignite the Reds 12 game winning streak last year.  However the team can ill afford another long term position player injury, especially prior to  the anticipated returns of TJ Friedl and Noelvi Marte because unlike 2023, the cupboard  looks relatively bare at AAA.

Another question for me is can the rotation and bullpen hold up through the long grind.  Depth is also an issue here.

So, I’m saying 81-81 but hoping that’s the floor and that the team will out play my prediction as it did in 2023.

Ashley Davis

Record: 86-76

Yes, I’m going to be optimistic, despite the injuries. The Reds won 82 games last season with a roster that was held together at times by rookies and fringe players. 2024 is going to be different. Those rookies have more experience and the fringe players have been replaced by legitimate major league talent. The Matt McLain injury hurts, and there are a lot of “ifs” surrounding the Reds. Can Jonathan India rebound? Can Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft stay healthy? Can Elly De La Cruz and Christian Encarnacion-Strand avoid the sophomore slump? Can this team avoid the same April start as the last few seasons? But the Reds are in a better position than they were in 2023 and they play in one of the weaker divisions in MLB. It’s going to be a fun year in Cincy.

John Ring

Record: 82-80

The Good: Great young talent. Maybe Greene gets it together. Maybe Lodolo and Abbott are ready.

The Bad:  Diaz’ horrible spring and fall off late in 2023. Depth, especially in the outfield. Health of the pitchers. McLain’s injury. The injury to Arroyo, who could be a great shortstop down the road.

Summary: I don’t dislike David Bell but I have no confidence in him at all as the Reds Manager. Was stunned he was extended after a month of good baseball for the Reds last season. This team is hard to get a read on. I give Krall credit for working under the constrictions of Ownership. If the Reds get off to even a “decent” start and aren’t buried early, there’s a chance for this team. The Reds need McLain, Greene to become a stopper and for the young pitchers to step up. If that happens, they could have a special season.

Doug Gray

Record: 82-80

If you had asked me this two weeks ago I would have had something around 86-ish wins. But being down TJ Friedl for at least a month to begin the season and Matt McLain for what appears to be multiple months at the very least is a pretty big blow to the team. Not to mention Noelvi Marte being suspended. The depth that the team had is being tested in the pitching department, too. There’s still upside with the club, but they’re going to need to reach more of it now and that’s more of an ask than it was on March 10th. The division isn’t good, and that helps, and sometimes it’s just your year where things go your way. Let’s hope it’s that kind of year.

The Full Predictions

Author Wins Losses
Chad Dotson 95 67
Tom Mitsoff 86 76
Ashley Davis 86 76
Doug Gray 82 80
John Ring 82 80
Jim Walker 81 81

 

111 Responses

  1. Oldtimer

    I’ll stick with 85 W even with 3 starters out. India for McLain. Candelario for Marte. Benson / Fairchild for Friedl. Acquiring Espinal for INF depth was huge. Maybe Dat Dude II or close to it.

    The Reds lineup is still MLB competitive. Bullpen improved over 2023. SP still question mark but improved over 2023. SP must be better than ST numbers.

    • Mauired

      Phillips was a gold Glover and 30/30 player. Espinal is a utility player with no speed or power. There’s no comparison at all. Not a bad pickup for the bench though. If India goes down or gets moved for bad defense, he is a good fill in.

      • Chris

        Oldtimer, that’s all nice, but again, he’s not B Phillips.

      • Oldtimer

        He is EXACTLY Brandon Phillips at the time of the trades in 2006 and 2024. Phillips did next to nothing his first 4 MLB seasons. I gave you the link. Use it.

        Joe Morgan was a 2-time ASG and ROY runner-up over 7 full MLB seasons (and parts of 2 others) in 1971. Tommy Helms was 2-time ASG and ROY in 1966 (and part of 1 other season) in 1971.

        Looking back now, Morgan >>>>> Helms. But THEN Morgan = Helms.

    • Oldtimer

      He was neither of those things after four MLB seasons before he became a Red. He was NOT an All-Star when the Reds acquired him. He was not even an All-Star in his 30 HR / 94 RBI season with the Reds.

      Espinal has already been an All-Star. How often do you acquire an All-Star INF with versatility in exchange for a lower level MiLB pitcher? Not often.

      • Mauired

        Nice pickup. He’s not hitting 30 homers and stealing 30 bags though and hard to see him matching Phillips elite glove and arm as well. Circumferences are similar though.

      • Oldtimer

        BP was none of those thing in 2002-03-04-05 either. He played SS at CLE.

        If he were, Reds would not have acquired him for Jeff Stevens. We got luck on Dat Dude.

      • Justin T

        Phillips was a highly touted prospect with all the “tools” teams want he just couldnt get his attitude right. The Indians (name at the time) gave up on him. I dont see any parallel between the two with the exception of circumstance, and even thats a reach. Id love for you to be right though. Id compare him more to when the Reds picked up Tony Womack, hopefully he bringsbetter results.

  2. Melvin

    As always the last several years it’s impossible for me to predict with the David Bell factor (which I believe to be real). However even with all of the injuries we still have lots of talent and a much lower floor on the pitching side. This leads me to lean towards Tom and Ashley’s predictions. 86-76…..It doesn’t hurt to be optimistic does it? 😀

    • Melvin

      Should I say “higher floor” on the pitching side? 🙂 😉

    • Matt

      For David Bell, I’m assuming you mean like -5 or so?

  3. Rednat

    I have a feeling we struggle this year. I think the real “rebuild” starts in a couple of years when Collier and Arroyo get up here and the young pitching staff gets a little more experience.

    I like Benson and Steer. I think they will be solid dependable reds for a long time.

    Obviously McLain, India, Stephenson, Friedl have durability issues which really worry me. I honestly am not sure we can count on these guys te be “core” players going forward. I hate to say it

    CES,ELDC, Marte are the enigmas of the team I honestly don’t know what we have with these guys. Could be all stars, could be out of the league in a couple of years.

    Anyway I say 75-86.

    • Doug Gray

      What happened in the other game?

      • Rednat

        Haha. It was late. My math was off or maybe a tie lol

      • Doug Gray

        As someone who does math sometimes, it is difficult and we should ban it.

  4. Greenfield Red

    84-78. I would have gone higher without all the bad news in March.

    On another note, if you need any more proof the Haves (Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, ect) are playing Chess while everyone else is playing Checkers, look for further than the Dodgers latest extention (10 years to a 29 year old Catcher). They simply must not care about cost, future cost, an aging roster) at all.

    • Jonathan

      @Greenfield – I was shocked by that as well. Didn’t realize Will Smith was already 29.

  5. CI3J

    Somewhere between 83 and 86 wins sounds about right. Despite the injuries, this is still a pretty good team.

    If the Reds finish with fewer than 78 wins, Bell should be fired. He won’t be, but he should.

    • greenmtred

      What if a couple more of the regulars miss significant time due to injury and/or a good portion of the rotation misses a lot of time? There are mitigating circumstances in baseball as in life. Mitigating circumstances can turn a murder charge into self-defense.

      • CI3J

        I repeat:

        If the Reds finish with fewer than 78 wins, Bell should be fired. He won’t be, but he should.

    • greenmtred

      You’re a tough audience. How would it be his fault under those circumstances? What you advocate is scapegoating, not accountability.

      • CI3J

        At the same time, it’s just as disingenuous to constantly make excuses for a manager who continually underperforms.

      • greenmtred

        “Excuses” has a pejorative connotation, doesn’t it? “Mitigating circumstances” is neutral. As for “underperformed,” based upon what? Mitigating circumstances adjust the expected level of performance. You may be basing this on a manager’s won-lost record and I’m really–this time–not going to reiterate the reasons and examples of why this makes no sense. Or, perhaps, you, like others here, simply disagree with the way Bell makes lineups, substitutes, etc. Your privilege, of course, and you might be right. But that doesn’t negate the impact that injuries can have on any team, nor the fact that the Reds have been plagued by injuries.

      • CI3J

        Yes, excuses.

        Every manager has to deal with injuries. It’s not unique to Bell.

        Good managers find a way to overcome them. Mediocre managers like Bell say “Well, we’ll get ’em next year.”

      • greenmtred

        Examples, please, of teams with as many injuries to key performers this year and last as the Reds and still matched their assumed potential prior to the injuries. For the sake of fairness, you should really disregard the wealthy teams who have the resources to replace a player in kind.

      • Mauired

        C1j3. 1st team that comes to mind is Brave winning world series after Acuna tore ACL mid season. If you actually want more examples there are countless. It’s baseball. Players get hurt everyday.

      • DaveCT

        Let the record reflect that the first pitch has yet to be thrown and the call for Bell to be fired has begun.

    • Justin T

      Like the gentlemen said, he had a embarrassing loss in the expanded playoffs in 2020 (with an unbelievable pitching staff), late season meltdown in 2021(Heath Strickland anyone?), then loses 100 the following year. Less than 6 mos. later he was given a 3 yr extension. Just hard to believe there is a commitment to excellence in the FO.

      At this point if they replaced the manager id be fully on board. Just show me you care more than I do about building a winner. I predict 80-82.

  6. TR

    I’ll be pleased if the Reds can stay within striking distance, preferably above .500, and don’t fall more than 10 games out. Then come September, with a needed offensive leader and a bullpen largely injury-free, who knows what can happen in the NLC.

  7. RedFuture

    First Half: 41-40 with significant players out.
    Second Half: 46-35 with significant players back and no other major injuries.
    87-75

  8. Andy

    101-61

    You get no prize from RLN for shorting or hitting the over. Let’s go crush it and win it all!

    • Doug Gray

      Very glad that I am officially off the hook for a prize on this one!

  9. Mark A Verticchio

    One sad note is even if things go the wrong way, with all the injuries, Bell will bear no responsibility. I am not against Bell as manager I just think his constant lack of a sense of urgency has really hurt this team over the years.

    • greenmtred

      We just don’t see the sense of urgency, Mark: he extinguishes his burning hair before he leaves the clubhouse.

  10. Klugo

    What’s Phil Castellini’s prediction? Havent heard enough outta him this off-season.
    (Now where’s that sarcasm font?)

    • Melvin

      “What’s Phil Castellini’s prediction?”

      Can’t wait for that. I’m on the edge of my seat. 😀

    • Jim Walker

      Gotta use brackets {} instead of carrots to turn on the sarcasm font 😉

  11. AllTheHype

    Playing a lot of games against the NL Central helps. The Brewers won 92 last year and when you look at their stats, esp offensive, you think “how?”. The Cardinals are improved, albeit marginally. The Pirates are improved, again, marginally. The Cubs and Brewers will be fielding worse rosters than last year.

    The Reds could/should beat up on the NL Central.

    This year we expect full years for Abbott, EDLC, CES, & Antone.

    And we add full years of Candy, Montas, Martinez, & Pagan.

    And (hopefully) better health from Lodolo, Greene, and Ashcraft.

    We get Lodolo, Williamson, & Moll back sometime in April. Friedl in June. Marte in July.

    Then subtract the contributions of McLain from last year. Yeah, that’s a big contribution both offensively and defensively that will be missed.

    And, of course, we will have a few unknown injuries to key players during the season.

    Also though, who knows which MiL players will be ready to shine there and make meaningful contributions to ML team. Maybe one or two of Dunn, Phillips, Hinds, Hurtubise, Richardson, Santillan?

    Depth is STILL very good. Talent is STILL very good.

    89-73

  12. doofus

    If prince Phillip comes out and sees his shadow 82 wins . If he comes out and opens his mouth sub-.500. If he does not come out at all 95 wins.

    • greenmtred

      The Prince’s well-attended funeral points strongly to 95 wins.

      • greenmtred

        That is not my prediction, by the way. I don’t make predictions about baseball.

      • doofus

        Prince Phillip (aka Phil Castellini).

  13. Moon

    The Reds improved depth from last year where at times there was a revolving door between AAA and Cincy, But there is still a drop-off from the starters and the Reds, especially the last few years, are heavily hit by injuries. They are already looking at injuries to Friedl, McLain, Moll, Williamson, with Marte out for PEDs. I am not sure Greene, Lodolo, or Ashcraft have ever pitched more than half a season. But they are better than last year. I think they will play solid at times but the injuries take their toll over the long course of the season. 79-83 final but in the hunt for a Wild Card spot for most of the year.

  14. Dan

    Remember, based on runs scored and allowed, we were at the level of a 77-85 team last year…

    The mojo has gotten so bad this year, with crazy injuries… it has the feel of about a 78-84 team to me now.

    But I tend to lean pessimistic… unforeseen things will happen. Injuries to pitchers ALWAYS happen… some guys will regress.

    Still… I would LOVE to be wrong! Go Redlegs!! Bring the energy and the fun and start strong!

  15. JB WV

    87-75
    Last year I predicted 85 wins mostly on blind optimism and the “Big Three” staying healthy and pitching well all year. Obviously didn’t happen but unforeseen contributions from the guys brought up carried em. I’ve tempered my enthusiasm a bit, but see our boys snagging a wild card spot this year to begin a long run of playoff appearances.

  16. Mark Moore

    I’ll go relatively conservative but optimistic. I think we get to 84 wins this season. NLC is still pretty weak/banged up (not just us) and I just don’t see the extended droughts we watched last year late in the season.

    Still more than a couple of reasons for concern. I’m still on the side with those who think HDTBell is at the bottom of the managerial barrel (I’ll rank him 30 of 30 to start the season 😉 ) and his choices do play into the mix.

    On the road for the game today, so audio feed only it shall be. Let’s jump out to a great start!

    • Dennis Westrick

      Mark, you are obviously over optimistic on Bell! Let’s win in spite of our field general!

    • CI3J

      Mark, I’ve always wondered: what does the “HDT” before “Bell” mean?

  17. TJ

    I like the Red’s depth. 91-71. It comes down to the Cubs and Reds this year. Cards pitching will be horrible and they are getting old quickly. Pittsburgh is intriguing, but they still have many holes in pitching and their lineup. Brewers have gotten worse this year. Cubs starters have a higher ceiling than other teams in this division.
    Red’s schedule in April is very difficult. A LOT of NL West teams to start. If Reds can tread water until a healthy TJ comes back, I believe the Reds will be fine. CES will shine as well as Nick Martinez. I believe those two will be two big catalysts. I thought CES might’ve been the odd man out if everyone was healthy. David Bell is a good manager. He will mix and match talent to get the Reds to the playoffs.

    • SultanofSwaff

      Agree that it’s the Cubs and Reds. Different approaches for sure—the Reds imo have twice as many 2+ WAR players as the Cubs, but they have more 4+ WAR players but little quality behind them. Cubs better hope they stay healthy.

  18. LDS

    Love the optimism, but I think a wait and see stance is warranted. As @Melvin said, the Bell factor is real, despite the objections of many here. The team has talent. The question is whether they can develop it. Did Greene learn new pitches that he can and will actually use? Did EDLC learn to hit from the right side? Will he bring the SO rate down? Can CES hit 30? Is Montas really capable of 100+ quality innings (big question)? Does Candelario suddenly become more than a .240 hitter in GABP? Do the Reds once again collapse after the All-Star break? And so on. Lots of potential and many, many question marks.

    • DW

      Oh come on LDS, we need a prediction out of you!

      • LDS

        Nope. Right now, I don’t expect them to match last year’s record. But things could change. I’m just not willing to put money on potential. It’s like owning a shiny new Corvette but the guy with key only has one for a 58 Studebaker.

      • greenmtred

        Studebaker’s were great cars. Ahead of their times. You’re absolutely right about potential versus established.

      • greenmtred

        Unintentional hyphen. The proofreader was otherwise occupied.

  19. SultanofSwaff

    Depth will be the strength of the team, 89 wins, 1st in the division followed by Chicago, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Milwaukee.
    MVP position player–CES
    MVP starting pitcher—Abbott
    MVP reliever–Diaz
    minor league pitcher of the year–Rhett Lowder
    minor league hitter of the year—Sal Stewart

  20. Pete

    Defensively, the reds are very weak up the middle: well below average at catcher, second base, shortstop, and especially centerfield. Unfortunately, they will be lucky to finish above 81 wins this season.

  21. JB

    88-74. Reds West coast trips are over by mid May. I think that will be huge for the team. Cardinals start out on the west coast for 7 and come home for 6 and then head right back out west. Reds need to get off to a good start. Getting Marte back in July will be like getting a top player in a trade. Bullpen needs to be in top 10 and I think they will. Ashcraft wins 18. League realizes CES is the best on this team. Steer is consistent like last year.

  22. Ted Alfred

    The injuries combines with the D Bell factor…unfortunately I see 74-88. Don’t trust Bell at all….hope I’m dead wrong.

  23. CFD3000

    85-77. It all comes down to health for me – the Reds depth in the infield and the rotation is already being tested so that’s probably an optimistic prediction. But if Williamson and Lodolo get and stay healthy, and the rest of the rotation has no more than a “normal” injury rate, the high end is 90+. If not, it could be a struggle to .500. But I’ll consider this season a success if the Reds compete for a wild card and the young prospects continue to get better, starting with Hunter Greene and EDLC.

    Regardless of the outcome I’m as excited to follow along this season as I’ve been in many years. It’s Opening Day! I can’t wait to watch some games that count. Go Reds!!

  24. Dennis Westrick

    With Captain Ahab (Bell) at the helm, plus the injuries to TJ and McLain, I predict 81-81

  25. SHOW OPS

    83-79. 89-73 pre-Marte stupidity suspension, Friedl and McClain injuries.

  26. Ron

    85-77. They make the playoffs because of a hot streak the last two weeks of the season.

  27. Chad A Donnell

    A couple of early injuries HBP or Foul off of Fraley’s knee derail April and May. Team struggles mark it down O/U is 78.5

  28. VaRedsFan

    I was very optimistic before losing 1/3 of their best hitters.
    I was at 86 wins.
    Now at 79 wins as the season starts.
    The inevitable in season injuries are going to hurt even more as the hitting depth has been exhausted already.
    Final answer: 76-86

  29. Optimist

    102-60 – The laughing optimist

    85-77 – and they win a wild card series, the hopeful realist

    83-79 – and they make a very useful deadline trade, the realist

    71-91 – black swan

  30. Jim Walker

    In his prediction John Ring said>>
    “I don’t dislike David Bell but I have no confidence in him at all as the Reds Manager….”

    I couldn’t have described my own thoughts about Bell any better. John and I have been around long enough to have seen (in my case at least) the Reds win 6 NL pennants, lose a couple of NLCS, and and go 3-3 in the World Series. I’ve seen the heartbreak of near misses in 1964 and 1991 which made the 2023 ending seem not really even close.

    I’m not an expert who can say what Bell needs to do better at a granular level; but, here’s my take based on 55 years of adult fandom after being raised in a baseball centric extended family.

    Bell doesn’t have an effective feel for game flow and status. He has yet to turn out a squad that understands and can execute the skills of closing out competitive games consistently. He also digs holes for himself and his team by over committing resources too early in many games. In essence, to my eye, he is too often urgent when he doesn’t yet need to be and not urgent when he should be (at times because he has over managed earlier).

    • VaRedsFan

      I think a lot of people feel the same way Jim, when talking about feel for the game.
      It’s not a hatred of EVERYTHING Bell does, like so many on here seems to think it is.

      It is however, an accumulation of things that he does bad to get the results that we have gotten over the last 5 years. The big ones, are bullpen management. Other smaller things he does, are pivoting away with something that’s working, while in contrast, sticking too long with things that aren’t working. One example is taking India out of the leadoff spot when he was excelling there. He put Elly there, which is fine, but once it proved to not be effective, he kept him there another 2-3 weeks.

      He is a slave to the platoon matchups. Works for Fraley, works for Benson….but months passed by before he realized that Friedl wasn’t affected by such nonsense.

      There’s many more examples that I’ve covered plenty of times before.

      • Jim Walker

        He (Bell) is a slave to the platoon matchups….

        And Bell has painted himself into a corner before the 1st pitch of the season by not holding back an LH hitter to have off the bench later in the game. This also costs him defensively in CF b/c both Thompson and Fairchild are better CF than Benson who is starting there. Fairchild is ~league average for his career vs RHP; so, it was not like the choice was to use an RH hitter who was a giveaway out in order to have a potentially game changing power LH bat in reserve.

        What would I have done? Benson to right, Fairchild in CF, Fraley at DH with Martini off the bench.

    • Ted Alfred

      Very well said.

      I agree with everything you said…perfectly summarizes my thoughts about David Bell as a MLB manager.

    • CI3J

      Yep, there is no one anywhere who would say Bell is a good manager.

      He’s adequate. Makes some really baffling decisions sometimes. Probably causes more harm than good with all his tinkering. But he seems to mostly put players in good position to succeed, which is the minimum you should expect from a manager.

      With a better manager, I’d say this team is a shoo-in for a playoff spot. With Bell, they could get there. Or they could suffer yet another Bell-induced late season collapse and miss out again. And there will be plenty willing to make excuses for him yet again.

    • Oldtimer

      1961, 1970, 1972, 1975, 1976, 1990. Me, too. NL pennants. 3-3 WS. Should have won 1972 WS. NYY in 1961 and BAL in 1970 were just better than Reds.

      1964 absolutely should have won NL pennant. Hutch was dying so Sisler replaced him. Reds lost 4 of 5 at home to end the season 1 game behind. Sisler had a similar finish in 1965.

      1981 also Would Shoulda Coulda. 1994, too.

      I’m not a David Bell fan. Reminds me of Don Heffner in 1966. I was not a Bryan Price fan, either.

      • RED THUNDER

        Been saying it forever! David Bell is what he has always been, never changes. But this is the year or is it next year? 77-85 but hope its 85-77. Lets get the first one today, GO REDS!

  31. old-school

    86-76. I think Depth will help. Any More injuries or late inning bullpen meltdowns( Diaz) would keep that number lower. Bounceback season from India and Stephenson, plus breakout emerging star seasons from a few guys would make that number higher( looking squarely at you Elly, CES, and 1+ of the big 3 young SP- who are longer rookies anymore.

    My biggest prediction is CES becomes a middle of the order thumper for years to come. 30+ HR this year in 2024.

  32. Frank

    First time poster, very long time daily lurker. First i want to say thank you to Doug Gray for all that he does! I’ve been a Reds fan since 1970 and i remember as a
    young lad being crushed when Bobby Tolan went down with his achilles injury.

    Back to business..I’m excited for the Reds in 2024. I will go with 85-77 for the year. I predict big years from CES, Steer, and India. When Lodolo gets back and if he stays healthy I look for him to dominate. If Abbott stays steady thru the year along with Greene, Montas, Ashcraft, and Martinez then they make the playoffs. I believe in the old adage good pitching beats good hitting. Also call up Santillan and hope Moll and Williamson get well soon. The NL Central is there for the taking!

  33. Jpser05

    The schedule the first month or so is pretty tough. If they can be within a few games of .500 at the end of May, I say they win 85 games and make the playoffs.

  34. Ethan L

    I love predictions before a season starts!

    hat would make them more meaningful is revisiting those predictions at the end of the season, an accountability and reflection if you will. Could I request that we revisit the predictions after the season?

    FWIW, I predict 76-86.

  35. LarkinPhillips

    I’m normally much more positive in general, but I have hated what I’ve seen from the team this spring and that was exacerbated by the injuries. Considering the tough schedule out of the gate, I predict a bad start that we can’t dig ourselves out of by the all star break and results in another sell off. We will play above 500 ball the second half by a game or two. Finish the season around 66-96. I HOPE I AM SOOO WRONG!

  36. Stoney

    83-79. Even with the injuries there is still a lot to like about this team. CES and Steer both could have a great years and EDLC could go off at any time with his potential. Diaz concerns me big time. If he continues to struggle Bell can’t wait until the end of June to make an adjustment. Feeling more optimistic though than previous years. Cannot start off slow out of the gate Bell! Do like the starting pitching especially Abbott and Ashcroft. Go Reds!

  37. wkuchad

    83-79

    I feel like I’m being a little optimistic here, but I love our core and think we’ll be competitive for several years. But ownership needs to spend a little more money.

    I still question starting pitcher depth, and I’m worried about the back-end of the bullpen. Losing three of our five best hitters from last year hurt a lot, and that killed our depth. Our lineup against righties is still solid, but losing those three really hurt our lineup against lefties.

    I’m still very excited for the season. Go Reds.

  38. David

    I don’t have much faith in the endurance of the starting rotation.

    Have any of these guys pitched over 150 inning in the Majors? Frank Montas did, before he hurt his shoulder, and he will be innings limited this year, unless they pitch him till his arm falls off. So where are all the innings going to come from?

    Alexis Dias looked frankly lousy in Spring Training. Is there something wrong with his arm?

    Pitching wins ballgames. I think the Reds have some numbers, but until I get more of a look at the rest of the pitching in this division, I am not optimistic.

    Maybe 75 wins. They were “lucky” last year, despite, at times, have pretty bad pitching. The Bullpen was good until it wore down. Ian Gibaut won 8 games out of the bullpen last year…and now he’s hurt (he wore down as the season went on).

    I really want the Reds and David Bell to prove me wrong, but I just don’t see how this team gets over the hump. The lineup starting 2024 is MUCH better than 2023, even though we have lost TJ Friedl for a while.

    75 -87. Fourth place in the NL Central.

  39. MBS

    87 – 75

    Losing McLain for the year hurts, but I think Krall did a good enough job building in redundancies that we are still a contender for the division. I looked at today’s opening day lineup and didn’t see any issues, not bad since we’re currently 3 men down.

    • wkuchad

      Agreed on the lineup today. We are still solid offensively against righty starters (though our defense took a hit with the injuries).

  40. Kevin Patrick

    The Reds play a tough schedule early. I’m not sure they would have done well in this stretch even with McLain. I’m hoping Espinal isn’t a drastic drop off in performance. I think defense at short and center will generally be fine. If Stephenson’s bat is back, look out. If it isn’t…I hope that Maile plays more often sooner in the year. The Reds will not demonstrate that they are willing to use actual cash to acquire talent mid season as I think other teams in the division will be willing to do. 83-79…

    • JayTheRed

      I did notice the tough schedule for April and May is not much better. Hopefully we can hang around .500 or so until we get past these first two challenging months.

      A sweep of Washington would sure be a nice way to start the season.

  41. Chris

    Might as well starting shaking your head now. Another reason why it’s hard to predict how the Reds will do. Bell has Steer batting 7th. Elly batting 6th. Oh well, what you gonna do?

    • LarkinPhillips

      I saw MLB predict his lineup yesterday and laughed. No one has a chance at predicting his insanity. Steer was our most consistent guy, he definitely is a candidate for 9th Saturday.

    • wkuchad

      New season, new silly complaints.

      What’s wrong with Steer hitting 7th? I’m not sure about Candy (need to check his stats), but every other player in spots 1-6 hit better than Steer against righties last year.

      • LarkinPhillips

        It will all come out in the wash. As long as my boy CES isn’t hitting 7-8 I will not complain. Lol.

      • wkuchad

        Agreed, I’d like to see him in spots 2-5 most every game, unless he starts struggling.

      • LarkinPhillips

        @wkuchad, I also like elly hitting lower like he is for the start of the season. Take the pressure off and let him find his groove. If/when he gets consistent move him into the top 2 spots. It is telling that Stephenson is 9th in our lineup this year despite losing 3 of our starters already.

      • wkuchad

        Stephenson is 9th because our lineup is still quite strong versus righties. I mean, Steer is likely around the correct spot hitting 7th, so that should tell you something.

        However, Friedl and McLain mashed lefties last year. And Fraley, Benson, India, and EDLC struggled. I think Stephenson will likely hit higher up versus lefties.

      • LarkinPhillips

        That was my point. Stephenson hitting 9th is a good thing bc of how deep we are, even after losing 3 starters. I am concerned verse lefties like you seem to be. WAS only has 1 lefty in the pen I believe.

  42. Ghostrunner_onthird

    81-81. They miss the playoffs (WC) by a game and a half.

  43. citizen54

    80-82. People here are way too optimistic here and they are going to blame Bell if the Reds are below .500. The Reds are better than they were last year but last year’s team was about 5 games better than they should have been based upon expected batted ball outcomes and run differential. FG has the Reds pegged at 78 wins. Here’s hoping someone like Lodolo will perform a lot better than expected giving the Reds a couple more wins then expected.

    • JayTheRed

      If you think the Reds are better than why are you giving them a worse record?

  44. Indy Red Man

    79 yesterday, but Yahoo picking us 2nd gave me more hope. Freidl will be back too and Marte later. Not quite enough though

    84-78

    • Indy Red Man

      Actually 84 might deliver 7th… maybe?

  45. Tom Diesman

    I’m predicting the Reds go 87-75 and win the NL Central. I think this year is the beginning of really good run for the Reds organization.

  46. JayTheRed

    I’m with Tom and Ashley 86 wins for this team could realistically happen. Hoping for 90 wins but with the injuries and suspension, not sure that will happen.