The Cincinnati Reds have been rumored to be in the market for a frontline starting pitcher. They haven’t been linked to anyone on the free agent market that fits that description, but they’ve been linked to both Tyler Glasnow of the Tampa Bay Rays and Dylan Cease of the Chicago White Sox in trade rumors for the past week or so. The asking price has been rumored to be high for both players. Earlier today, though, things got more specific with what the White Sox were asking for. Bruce Levine of Marquee Sports Network out of Chicago said they asked the Reds for Rhett Lowder, Chase Petty, and the clubs #9 and #11 prospects for Cease.

The question that has to be asked is…. is that too high of an asking price? Starting with Dylan Cease, we need to acknowledge that he’s a year removed from finishing second in the Cy Young voting, but also that at least from a runs allowed perspective, he took a massive step backwards in 2023. His ERA more than doubled from 2022 to 2023, going from 2.20 to 4.58, and that 4.58 was below the league average mark (97 ERA+).

Cease has led the league in starts two of the last three seasons, and in that other season he has as many starts as he had in 2021 and one less than he had in 2023. He’s a guy that you should feel comfortable with (at least by comparison to your typical pitcher) will take the mound every 5th day. His control hasn’t been great – he’s walked 3.8 batters per 9-innings pitched over the last three seasons. His ability to miss bats as a starting pitcher, though, has been elite – striking out 667 hitters in 526.2 innings in those same three seasons.

When it comes to his contract there are two things that we know. He’s under team control for both the 2024 and the 2025 seasons and is arbitration eligible in both seasons. As for how much money he will make, that’s a bit tougher to know. MLB Trade Rumors projects him to get $8,800,000 in 2024. For 2025 we’ll have to wait and see how he performs next season. Neither of those things should matter all that much since the Reds should have more than enough money to spend in each of those two seasons without even thinking of digging into the couch cushions.

When it comes to the prospects being asked for let’s start with the two that we absolutely know about: Rhett Lowder and Chase Petty. Cincinnati took Lowder with their 1st round pick in 2023. He was the 2nd pitcher taken in the entire draft after going 15-0 at Wake Forest last season and posting an ERA of 1.87 as a junior. He didn’t pitch in the minor leagues in 2023 after the draft. Cincinnati also paid him a signing bonus of $5,700,000.

Chase Petty was acquired by the Reds in the spring of 2022 in the deal for Sonny Gray with the Minnesota Twins. An elbow injury in the spring of 2023 kept him off of the mound for the first six weeks of the season. When he returned the club put a plan in place where he would throw 65 pitches or 4.0 innings before being replaced in the start – whichever came first. He made 18 starts once he returned and didn’t miss any of the scheduled starts, but he also threw just 68.0 innings on the season due to those restrictions.

When Petty was on the mound he was dominant. He posted a 1.72 ERA between 16 starts with High-A Dayton and then two starts with Double-A Chattanooga at the end of the year. He didn’t allow a home run all season, walked 15 batters, had 66 strikeouts, and was the top groundball pitcher in the farm system (56% groundball rate – 42% is the MLB average). You can see his career stats here.

One could argue that Rhett Lowder and Chase Petty are the top two pitching prospects that the organization has. They currently rank #2 overall (Lowder) and #6 overall (Petty) on the RedsMinorLeagues.com rankings.

Where things get a bit cloudy is simply saying “the Reds #9 and #11 prospects”. What list is being referenced there? Someone pointed out on twitter that Levine has used the MLB Pipeline rankings in the past. If that’s the list being referenced, then those two players would be Carlos Jorge – a second baseman/center fielder – and Sammy Stafura.

All that Carlos Jorge has done since signing is be arguably the top offensive player in every league he’s spent more than a few weeks in. He finished in the top five in OPS in the Dominican Summer League, the Arizona Complex League, and the Florida State League in the last three seasons. In all of those seasons he also ranked in the top 10 in the league in stolen bases. He’s a career .294/.395/.503 hitter with 101 walks and 173 strikeouts in 792 plate appearances (career stats here). In the 2023 season he began to play some center field in the second half of the year.

Sammy Stafura was the Reds 2nd round draft pick last summer. The shortstop was a then 18-year-old and he played in a handful of games out in Arizona. In the 12 games he got into before the season ended he struggle, hitting .071/.212/.191 with 8 walks and 23 strikeouts in 53 plate appearances. You can see his full stat line here.

Now that you’re armed with all of that information, is that too big of an ask by the White Sox? Is it a price that the 82-80 Cincinnati Reds should pay to add to their young and hopefully improving roster?

 

207 Responses

    • Muddy Cleats

      Agree, too many unknowns 4 the Reds at this pt. Very young & prone to regression offensively. Likewise, SP (Green, Lodolo, Williamson & Abbott) is still very inconsistent.

      • Rick

        Ashcraft has been streaky & an acute injury. If he can widen those good streaks Look out! Greene needs to perfect a solid offspeed pitch to use around 19% of his pitches. Lodolo, fix your injuries that are controllable to him. Odds are that a couple of these pitchers end up in the pen anyway for various reasons. Be it control, nagging injuries from starter reps. lacking a 3rd pitch, and Abbott a put away pitch. That’s why I keep Lowder & Petty, and possibly Phillips. Trade Richardson & upside of Floyd and 2 throw ins.

    • Rick

      Kind of like out of orbit high! No to those 2 pitchers. I personally believe that Lowder and Petty will be two important pieces of our rotation in 25 &26 respectfully,if not earlier(Lowder).
      Time for a realistic counter proposal.
      Just do not overpay. Richardson, Floyd, Stafura, Barrero.

    • tommyd

      the arbitration process will kill this trade! next year, if he goes to arbitration with a cy young type of year the process is a game changer. the club makes him feel bad about what he didn’t accomplish and brings out all his bad stuff. then he gets paid by an arbitrator and the bad blood starts. long term bad for the club.if you’re going for the gusto trade some young major leaguers with potential (which we have) for a stud with a 3 or 4 yr contract with options

    • Cheeseburger

      I agree with you. I’ve seen Chase Petty pitch, he has potential to be very good and Carlos Jorge is very good as well (Makes good contact, has good speed, he definitely has potential to be a very good player).White Sox are wanting way too much. No way I would do this trade.

  1. AllTheHype

    Doesn’t hurt for the Sox to ask for the moon. I think that price needs to come down considerably.

    Lowder would be an untouchable for me. Petty is good but has question marks. I’d consider substituting Williamson for Lowder and then negotiating them further down the prospect list for the other 2.

    • jmb

      They can have the moon, they just can’t have Petty, Lowder, plus!

    • Rick

      Lowder is going to be a stud in short order. Maybe a #2 stud. Was impressive against LSU.

  2. Amarillo

    Even if they aren’t asking for too much, there are comparable pitchers who are free agents that don’t cost prospects.

    • AllTheHype

      Yeah and I would suspect that gets resolved before a trade for Cease happens for any team. No one is going to pay what the Sox are asking right now, and they won’t lower the price til the free agent market shakes out. Cease is a January trade, in my opinion.

    • Votto4life

      Those free agents want multiple year contracts. The Reds are not going to give one player an 8 year contract worth $150,000,000 or more. They are just not going to do it.

      • Rick

        Nor should they. If they are smart enough to handle their FO positions. We must operate like the small market team that we are. We’ll have our young position core start to get expensive at about the same time. Locked into one 185,0000 pitcher contract upsets the team budget spending.

    • Rick

      Lugo.
      Smart FO would sign(or already should’ve signed one since we have $$$ to acquire.

  3. Optimist

    Too much. One of each at most. But even then, not Petty nor Jorge. They’re somewhat proven. If the Sox want draft picks give them draft picks.

    • AllTheHype

      Only draft pick that can be traded is the Competitive Balance one after round 2.

      • Optimist

        I meant Lowder and Stafura, draft picks without MiLB records.

    • Rick

      And shouldn’t. Deepest depth at pitching starters since 2010-13. Really 1990.

  4. KG

    If you don’t ask, the answer is always no. But indeed, that’s way too much to give up.

  5. Ben

    Too high for sure. Certainly going to part with some talent. If they throw in Luis Robert this seems to be a more appropriate ask

  6. MK

    A one year rental for 2 best pitching prospects and two others. I might give them the infield guys and a bag of batting practice balls, but no on the pitchers.

    Wonder if they might like those four de la Cruz and CES too.i think they have as good as Cease on the roster already

    • Michael

      It’s actually a 2 yr rental, but still too high.

    • Andy

      Not a 1 year rental. Cease has 2 years of arbitration remaining. (Glasnow would be a 1 year rental.)

      Doubt the Reds would do this even for 2 year contract. I’m guessing they prefer to trade from infield depth (Arroyo) as the centerpiece of the deal. While still a big ask, given Reds infield, I would be more interested in pairing one of those pitchers with Arroyo than trading both.

  7. Old-school

    I want the Reds to compete year in year out for the nl central and a deep playoff run. Pitching injuries always happen as well as underperformance so reds need a deep pipeline of young starting pitching. Id be ok with trading Chase Petty or Cam collier or Lyon Richardson or Ty Floyd but the Rhett Lowders and Conner Phillips and mlb pitchers are off limits- williamson, ashcraft abbott etc

    Also reports Reds concerned on injury reports of bieber and Glasnow who are 1 year rentals

    • Oldtimer

      Too bad you missed the 1970s. Only time the Reds have done that in my lifetime (born 1951).

  8. RedBB

    I don’t think I would give up Lowder straight up for Cease

    • David

      Oh, I think I would. Lowder is certainly a very good POTENTIAL ML pitcher. He has not yet pitched ONE INNING of professional baseball.
      I think Lowder for Cease straight up would actually be a steal for the Reds.

      Lowder might be one or two Minor league seasons away from the Bigs, but Cease has already proven to be a good ML pitcher. I think someone discussed his stats, and a lot of his “regression” from 2022 to 2023 can be laid at bad infield defense for the White Sox. (well, not ALL, but a lot).

      I remember when Sonny Gray came to the Reds from the Yankees, and a lot of ML poo-bahs thought this was a bad acquisition. Turns out the Yankees misused Sonny, and he had some very good years with the Reds.
      Pitching is a crapshoot sometimes, but Lowder is still just potential. If the Reds truly want to compete in 2024, that would be a trade I would make in a minute.

      • RedinTxs

        I agree wholeheartedly!
        The clock is already ticking away the time the Reds can still afford their young position players.
        Win now…being a baseball fan in Cincy may not exist in 5 years.
        I clearly remember when prospect Nick Sensel was untouchable.

  9. Chris

    Way too much. Petty and Lowder are basically LOCKS to not move IMO. Frankly Jorge is someone I would have a hard time moving as well. For me this is even more tough, because I’m very suspect regarding Cease. Too often pitchers seem to fall off the table like Cease did, and never fully bounce back. If I knew that Cease would be the pitcher he was in 2022. I’d consider this, but one of the two pitching prospects would have to be swapped out. This is a team with lots of extra dollars. If trades are going to cost that much then spend some money on short term free agents, or spend a boatload on a top free agent for a few years.

  10. Datdudejs

    Yea that’s extremely dumb move for the reds to make. Just sign yamamoto, all he costs is money

    • Colorado Red

      He will cost too much, especially with the Bally uncertainty over the next couple of years.

    • JayTheRed

      Not only that but the player has to want to play for the team as a free agent.

  11. Kevin Fox

    I would rather get Shane Bieber for less than what you would get Dylan Cease.

    • Colorado Red

      He is a high risk guy.
      Elbow and forearm injuries last year.
      TJS on the way

  12. Mark

    Just sign the best still available free agent starting pitcher Wacha maybe?? They are asking for the moon no thanks

  13. Tom Mitsoff

    Allow me to chime in with a dissenting opinion. In Cease you would be getting an established pitcher with a four-season track record of MLB performance. In the players you would be giving up, you’d be surrendering exactly ZERO years of MLB experience. To say no to this idea with no consideration means you believe Petty and Lowder are both going to be better than Cease. How in the world can we possibly know that at this point?

    My position has been since season-end: This is a team that built to get to the point where it is now, to take steps to compete for a title of some sorts. Hoarding and perhaps overvaluing prospects is a great way for the front office to say, nah, we’ll take our chances that our luck is good with unproven talent, rather than try to get someone with experience, two years of control, and might cost a bit more.

    I think the published report could probably use some tweaks from either side, such as the Sox including some other prospect or throw-in. But the talking points for a legitimate discussion are there. I didn’t start watching this team 50 years ago to have my fingers crossed all the time about how players are doing at Chattanooga and Louisville. (end of rant — back to regular programming) 😉

    • Tom Mitsoff

      IMO — Reds fans as a whole overvalue all prospects because we have been conditioned to do so.

      • Old-school

        Yes and no

        Lowder isnt just a prospect . Hes an elite pitcher with a mature approach and nearly finished product with a great repertoire of pitches

        You dont trade those guys

      • Tom Mitsoff

        I haven’t seen him, so I can’t express an informed opinion. I suspect that Krall wouldn’t make this deal as expressed, but everyone should remember, we all know that this team needs established major league pitchers with records of effectiveness added to the rotation and bullpen. I would think the Reds, with their reticence to spend huge sums, would think long and hard about trading for Cease and having him for at least the next two years at around the salary of Martinez.

      • RedAlert

        Tom , I’ve seen him pitch plenty in ACC …. Untouchable I’m my opinion at this point . The kid is the real deal …..will be surprised if he’s not in reds rotation within next 2 years

      • RedBB

        Tom, go watch Rhett Lowder pitch against Paul Skenes who went #1 last year in the draft. He was just as good as him if not better. There should be highlight on Youtube. Keep in mind he was pitching against the best team in college baseball last year in LSU as well. He was a steal at #7 and if not for the depth of the 2023 draft class he would have gone higher. He would be top 5 or top 3 this year.

      • Tom Mitsoff

        I hope you’re right and I’m wrong, then. What I would suspect is happening is that Krall has come back to the Sox with a counter-offer that they’re not going to take now, but could come back to if they can’t get the top package they’re looking for from other teams.

      • DaveCT

        Tom, seriously, “I haven’t seen him.” Really?

        You’d evaluate a trade based on your eyes only on vs the professional scouting ranks.

        This seems like a devil’s advocate argument and nothing more. Do better, man.

      • JayTheRed

        @RedAlert – So glad you have him being an all-star pitcher before he has thrown a single profession pitch in any game. I know you didn’t come out and say that directly but to classify him as untouchable is probably not a good choice at this point.

        It’s great to be high on a prospect but until we see what he can do at A, or AA, or even AAA. We all can simply hope he turns into something great. Starting pitching is so hard to tell what you’re going to get each season let along what a guy who might be a good player will do for your team.

    • AllTheHype

      The dissenting opinion to the dissenting opinion is……in 2026 you will not have Cease, but you would have Lowder and Petty each for 5-6 additional years. You’d be robbing from the 26-30 Reds teams to get one pitcher for 2 years now.

      If we learned anything about prospects in the ’23 season, it is that they are very valuable. Lowder and Petty will both mostly likely appear in top 100 prospect lists this year.

      • Tom Mitsoff

        No arguments about what we learned in 2023 about prospects, but that absolutely does not apply every year. Nick Senzel was a great prospect. I’m sure the Reds had many offers for him in years past that they wished they would have said yes to. My point is that now is the time to try to win, and you do that more often than not with experienced, proven talent. I am not holding my breath for a substantial free agent signing — one which I would put in a tier above the other two very welcome pitchers they have signed so far.

        If you are sure that six years of both Lowder and Petty will exceed the value of two years of Cease, then you absolutely don’t make the trade. But the truth is none of us knows that for a fact. So a time comes when a front office has to take a chance and a risk to get better at the major league level. Not being as good as they can be for the next two years “wastes” two years of the current 2023 rookie crop’s for-sure time with the team, if you ask me.

      • AllTheHype

        Other than durabilty, Cease comes with risk too. He had one great year, and several years where he was a more middling performer. If that’s the price for Cease, I’m looking hard at free agents Clevinger (2.2 fWAR in 23) Wacha (2.6 fWAR) and Lugo, or seeing what Seattle wants one of their young pitchers who are much longer controlled.

        Chances are not great that BOTH Lowder and Petty become solid ML starters for 6+ years. Chances are good though that one of them does.

      • TR

        There’s an old saying, nothing ventured nothing gained. But with time, if you want to go that route, prospects can work out.

    • Votto4life

      I agree Tom. I remember when Scott Scudder was “untouchable”. I think the Red’s should counter offer, but it’s a starting point.

    • Tom Planchet

      I could see Lowder or Petty and then someone like Lyon Richardson and one of the top field prospects like Hendricks or Hinds or Jorge.

    • Hotto4Votto

      Tom, nice well thought post.

      Yes, prospects are unproven and generally the odds are against most being ML contributors or truly even against most even getting more than a cup of coffee if they’re not taken in the first few rounds.

      At the same time, there are no guarantees even for proven ML talent. Cease could blow out his elbow in ST ala the closer (Madsen?) did several years ago. Or just continue to see his numbers trend away from his stellar 22 in a continuation of what we saw last season. (although in this case Cease’s underlying stats are still good). And then the Reds would be out prospects and the money spent on Cease’s salary.

      One can make an argument for preferring the the untapped potential or taking the proven commodity. It probably comes down to preference. But there is inherent risk involved either way. I think there are some important things to consider with a trade, such as a team’s timeline, positional depth, market scarcity/demand, and years of control, among others.

      As far as the team’s timeline they are looking to compete next season. Now if I’m being honest, I wouldn’t go so far to put them in the full-blown contender status, but definitely competing for the division/play-offs is a goal. I’d think of this as more 2010-11 offseason Reds coming off a nice run looking to put the pieces together to create a contention window, moreso than the 2011-12 offseason Reds looking for someone to put them over the top. So with that said, Cease fits the window more than the prospects, only one of whom has reached AA (Petty) and that was only for 2 games (8 innings).

      As far as positional depth Petty and Lowder are our top two pitching prospects who have not yet reached the majors. They are the only two guys, IMO, in the organizational depth chart that have top of the rotation potential. Stafura is pretty far down the SS depth chart, and Jorge has primarily been a 2B with a bit of CF at the end of this season. Still, that’s 4 of our top 11 guys. We gave up 3 top 10 prospects (though better quality overall) and Volquez for Latos, but he had 4 years of control vs 2. Historically 4 of the top 11 prospects including your top two pitching prospects is a high price for only two years of control.

      Years of control is the next consideration. As mentioned above Cease has two years, so he’s not a rental, and that fits the Red’s competitive window. Obviously the Reds could have 6-7 years of control of each prospect if they reach the majors, but that’s always a big “if”. Stafura/Jorge are too far off to worry about for me. The thing here is that is that it’s not out of the realm of possibility that both Lowder and Petty are ready at some point in 25. Lowder will likely be on a Lodolo path, and Petty should start AA. The fact that the Reds *could* make use of the services of either or both before their control of Cease is up, changes the math a bit for me.

      As far as scarcity of market, there are options, both in trade and in FA that are comparable. Pitching is always going to be in demand and will always be somewhat scarce as far as front line guys. But this year doesn’t seem to be as bad as others.

      Sorry so long. Appreciate your thoughts.

      • Tom Mitsoff

        I appreciate yours. My initial reaction was based on my perception that everyone was saying, no, absolutely not, how silly — completely ignoring the value that comes in four years of previous MLB experience, two years of team control, and a somewhat cost-controlled contract for those two years. I think there is a basis there for a legitimate negotiation to continue. Others don’t, and that’s why we’re all here trading ideas and opinions.

      • Hotto4Votto

        Cease has value, just not what the White Sox are asking. I do think this can be a starting point. On my initial post I had suggested possibly one of each, a pitcher and one of Jorge/Stafura plus some fliers on lower-mid level prospects. I’d probably even stipulate Petty/Stafura or Lowder/Jorge so as not to wipe out the top of an entire draft class.

        But I agree, he does have value, and pared down a bit this proposal could provide the starting point for real negotiations. But as it stands now it remains a very high asking price.

    • JayTheRed

      Thanks, Tom, for this post. I agree with your saying there is zero proof that any of the Prospects that the White Sox want will do anything at the major league level.

      I think I fall in the minority category on this page. I think if you have a surplus and you have some unproven starters in the minors that teams want, and you can get a guy that has a pretty good track record you trade away those prospects to get the most expensive and hardest thing to get in the majors besides a superstar catcher you get it.

      Basing a single season’s stats can be a little silly. Sure, some stats are based on the pitcher’s actual performance but there are several stats that are not entirely the pitcher’s fault. Personally stat wise I like a few stats. FIP, Sierra, ERA+ and WHIP.

      The White Sox were a bad team that cost Cease Wins. I don’t think they are very good up the middle defensively as well. That hurts a pitcher’s stats.

      Overall, I don’t think this is an over ask. Would I like to see it be a lessor package required to get Cease of course I do. So many here want to trade guys away that teams would look at me like umm… what else are you giving me. The case like people offering Williamson and Barrero. There is not much value there yet. Sure, Williamson has a nice first season, but the guy is at best a #3 starter maybe. Barrero has not been able to hit in the majors thus far.

      Prospects are meant to help the team but if you have a surplus and the Reds definitely have a surplus of prospects currently you use them in trades to help you get what you need.

  14. TJ

    Yes, way too much. I don’t mind paying the prospect capital to get a front line pitcher, but only one of those pitchers has one great season. No thanks. Maybe overpay a free agent pitcher with some opt outs. Glad to hear the Red’s front office apparently saying the Sox are asking for the moon. There are always counter offers. It’d be interesting to hear what the Reds would be willing to part with.

  15. wolfcycle

    They better throw Luis Roberts and their DH with that deal, and then I still would have to sleep on it.

    • west larry

      Agreed! The sox are asking way too much. I don’t want to trade Petty or Lowder or Jorge for any pitcher. Let’s try to sign a free agent like Wacha or Yamamoto. Just kidding on Yamamoto – I understand that he’s getting 200 to 2650 million for ten years. The Dodgers, Mets, Yankees and the Red Sox and maybe Toronto are chasing him.

    • JayTheRed

      Seriously, the package would not even be close to get Cease, Roberts and their DH.

      That would not even be a starting offer for that package of players.

  16. Old-school

    Erod has narrowed list to 2 teams
    Ohtani reportedly deciding by the end of the week between 3

    Things moving quickly soon

    • Colorado Red

      I would have like Erod.
      5 at 110? Doubt the Reds do that.

  17. Greenfield Red

    Many here were critical of NK for not pulling the trigger last July. When he said the asking price was too high, this is what he meant.

    I remain on the do not trade side of the argument It’s free agency or go with what you’ve got for me. NK has worked too hard to aquire young talent to ship this much of it off for a very good starting pitcher who has large question marks about how good he will be in the next two years.

    That asking price is more than Seattle paid for Castillo.

    • wkuchad

      This is a very good point about Krall; I was one of the ones critical of him.

      That being said, I would definitely not make this trade, but we must bring in one more legit starting pitcher somehow.

    • Mike V

      You are so so Correct !!!! … Krall and crew have worked to hard to get the Reds to this point .. Let’s sign a free agent and trust the Kids .. They are great fun to watch and we almost went to the playoffs last season with them .. We are not yet at the point to cash in on our prospect haul for a one or two year rental .. Lets just buy someone to fill out the rotation for 2024 . Trust in the Kids

    • DaveCT

      And Cease is no Castillo. Not even close.

      • JayTheRed

        Can we get Castillo back from the Mariners? Someone said they were looking to shed payroll.

  18. doctorrockett

    I’d say full stop on Dylan Cease.

    Year by year:
    5.79 ERA
    4.01
    3.91
    2.20
    4.58

    2022 was an outlier. I’d say an expected ERA of around 4 – 4.2 is more likely especially playing at GABP, and that’s being optimistic. I’ll take any of our current rostered pitchers (including Williamson) over that and give up nothing.

  19. J

    I’ll never understand why teams like the Reds would even entertain the idea of trading young promising pitchers for “established” pitchers unless those “established” pitchers have been consistently good for several years and/or are under team control for at least three or four years. How many times to do we need to see a guy like Ashcraft or Abbott look almost immediately like seasoned veterans, or seasoned veterans suddenly look like they have no idea how to pitch, before we get past the idea that you MUST have seasoned veterans in the rotation to be competitive? If you can get a decent starter without giving up one of your top pitching prospects, ok, great, but otherwise no.

    • JayTheRed

      Answer – Because veterans pitch 180 + innings. No Reds starter has done even close to that yet. Too much injury history with Greene, Lodolo, and even Ashcraft at this point to rely on even 160 innings by these three.

  20. Doc

    Clear no from me. If I thought the Reds were serious WS contenders in 2024 and Cease was the over the hump difference maker, then it would just be a heck no, especially since Cease has slipped, Lowder hasn’t even thrown a pitch, and the Reds of 2023 still need to show they can sustain into 2024.

    But I think the Reds may be competitive, though still a year or two away from an extended window when they will contend each year. Effectively they are largely a team of recent AAA graduates who need to adjust and perform consistently at the MLB level (position players) and make significant strides on the mound (looking at you Hunter). I don’t screw up 2025-2027 for a 2024 bump. Same reasoning applied to Glasnow, who won’t likely pitch enough innings in 2024 to be a difference maker, if his entire career is any yardstick.

  21. LDS

    As I stated on the other thread – Cease isn’t that good. And he’d be with the Reds for 2 years before being too expensive for their tastes. Lowder & Petty may not make it to the Reds. Things happen. But the Reds emphasized building the farm system. Tearing it down now doesn’t make a lot of sense.

    • Old-school

      Good points LDS.

      I would draw a distinction between Lowder and Petty though

      Lowder is a proven elite college pitcher worthy of a top 5 pick with a mature approach and deep repertoire who threw innings deep into games and won.

      Petty is a 20 yo late round first pick with tremendous upside. I hope he becomes Tim Lincecum but he is years away and has nt thrown deep into games. Hes the high risk high reward years away from 150 inning mlb starter that I would be willing to trade now for a proven guy

      Lowder and Phillips no way.

  22. Nick in NKY

    While it’s worth pointing out that Cease has a track record, it’s also true that his track record is fairly average, with one outlying year that pushes his mean up into the top tier. He’s been durable, and he has two years of control. All of those things are worth considering, but I wouldn’t do the deal as listed.

    For me, Lowder is in the almost untouchable category. EDLC has been the only prospect over the past few years that I put in the truly untouchable category. Lowder hasn’t seen the big leagues yet, but his numbers and his stuff indicate he has number 1 potential. I don’t want to be a prospect hoarder, but this guy in particular could see the big leagues this year.

    For Cease, I maybe move Petty and a lesser prospect. For Cease and Robert, I think about moving Lowder. Obviously there’d be more parts to a deal like that, but I think that’s where I draw the line.

  23. BK

    The White Sox don’t have as much leverage as they think they have. This would be a hard no. Go sign a free agent.

    • Bob Purkey

      You are absolutely right BK. The Sox can finish last in the ALC with him or without him.

    • Melvin

      “Go sign a free agent.”

      Absolutely

  24. MBS

    Too high. Aim for Bieber in a trade, or sign a FA. We have options in the offseason, this isn’t a deadline move to push us to the next level.

    I’m not afraid to move prospects, but we are in a position to compete now. Trading away guys who are in a position to help this year or the next should be off the table. This trade feels like robbing Peter to pay Paul.

  25. docproc

    Yes, way too much for Cease.
    And please get India back in the deal.

    • Reddawgs2012

      If the Reds traded India and McLain got hurt (as he did last season), who would start at 2B against a LH starting pitcher? I think they need the depth.

  26. SultanofSwaff

    Too high, but not by much. I’d do Lowder OR Petty and two redundant IF prospects not named Arroyo. Curious as to why the ChiSox aren’t asking for a back of the rotation type with 5 years of control (Williamson, Abbott, Ashcraft)…..thinking they might understand they’re in for a long rebuild. Whatevs, Krall should engage but be judicious. I applaud the effort either way—starting pitchers with Cease’s gaudy strikeout totals don’t grow on trees. I think the others on here advocating to sign a free agent instead make a lot of sense given how miniscule the payroll is.

    • RedAlert

      Will regret it mightily if they trade Lowder ….. I say no way in that ….. barring injury he will be in big leagues very , very soon …. And a staple in Reds rotation …. His arsenal is
      unreal … I’ve witnessed it first hand on
      several occasions

    • Colorado Red

      I would do Petty, but not Lowder.
      We need to give a good return for Cease, but not a Kings ransom.

  27. Jon

    This is why the Reds should have beaten the Cardinals’ offer for Gray, or even the Phillies’ offer to Nola. They have the money. They have the prospects. The issue is that they’re afraid to part with either of them.

    • DW

      They may have beaten the Cardinals offer and Gray just turned them down. We don’t know. Gray did say that he really wanted to be a Cardinal. We need to keep this in mind for many of the free agents. Often, they have certain teams that they will and will not sign with, given the choice.

  28. redfanorbust

    Agree with the majority of responses on here I vote a hard no on this particular deal. Of course as all teams do with trades they start high and negotiate from there so I don’t think anyone would seriously jump at this trade. If the WS can get this or better from some other team good for them. Reds have the $ as many know to get a decent FA pitcher without robbing our farm system. ESP two of some of our top pitching prospects.
    I don’t know but fun to speculate, maybe Jake Fraley, Brandon Williamson and Jonathan India but I personally can not see giving up much more. They get three MLB ready players and seems to be fair trade on the baseball trade values website. Just have to wait and see.

    • Mark

      I think Taylor would be a good addition but I have to laugh when a 250ish hitter is characterized as being a strong RH batter. Guess it is just the age when a batter strikes out less than 20% of the time, that is considered good.

  29. Old-school

    Mpb traderumors has Reds targeting Michael Taylor as a righty platoon OF partner for benson and late inning defense guy. Strong RH hitting against lefties and great OF defender with speed

    Somebody get Jim Walker some Tums.

    • wkuchad

      I don’t dislike the move, but that likely means losing Fairchild or Barrero. I really hope Barrero gets a legit shot at a bench role in ’24.

    • Tom Diesman

      This would be a bad move.
      Taylor Career vs LH .256/.310/.436/.746 in 903 PA
      2023 vs LH .252/.313/.602/.914 in 112 PA
      2022 vs LH .238/.306/.369/.675 in 135 PA.

      Stuart Fairchild Career vs LH .229/.343/.389/.732 in 170 PA.

      If you’re going to spend FA money on a RH platoon bat, at least get one that will be a significant upgrade on what you already have.

      • AllTheHype

        Taylor slightly better bat, much better defender in CF than Fairchild. Fairchild is not really a viable CF defender going forward. Good in the corners though.

      • wkuchad

        Disagree on Fairchild – he plays a very passable CF. Also, as it stand, he’d be the 3rd option in CF behind Friedl and Barrero. Most of Fairchild’s bench bats will come from LF and RF.

  30. Hotto4Votto

    Huge over-ask. Maybe one of the two pitchers and either 9 or 11 plus some fliers on lower level guys. but definitely not all 4

  31. Mark

    Too much for Cease
    I would not trade any well regarded pitching prospects for any of the three; Cease, Bieber, or Glasnow. All have question marks or a large salary, Glasnow.

    Thought the Pale Hose needed a 2nd basemen? I would try to sign a back end starter like Wacha.

    Barring injury, the Reds have their future starting rotation in the organization already.

  32. Votto4life

    I think there is a foundation of a deal there. I wouldn’t include Petty. But, I think with a little more horse trading, they could reach an agreement.

    If the Reds do not improve their starting rotation they won’t make the play-offs next year. The Reds would get a TOR starter who is earning $6 million dollars. Where else are you going to get that?

    • Greenfield Red

      Gotta disagree V4L, but what’s new right? As always, it all depends on health. But as things stand right now the Reds have 5 healthy starters, and new guy who is a hinge between starting and relieving, another legit starter (Phillips) who will be in AAA, and about 3 other guys who can be called upon (Richardson, Spiers, ect) Like you, I want them to add another, but I don’t view it as a lost cause if they don’t.

      As they stand, they have an excellent chance to make the playoffs and advance .. in my opinion.

  33. AllTheHype

    For Soto, Yanks just gave up 3 young, good pitchers from their MLB roster (4.9 bWAR in ’23) and another from AA (2.52 ERA) that is 4th in their prospect list. That’s 20 years of control they gave up.

    They are short on pitching and now much shorter.

    Hope they sign him long term and he ends up another Giancarlo.

    • David

      I think this is another ridiculous propaganda move by the Yankees. They can afford to make these moves, but this may again blow up in their faces. They actually got killed last year with a 26 and 40 man roster full of guys with “can’t move” contracts that underperformed (Aaron Judge? Giancarlo?)
      Pitching wins games. Offense puts peoples butts in the seats.

      This enthuses the Yankee fans, but does not really help them compete next year, unless they come up with a couple big pitching moves.
      Ohtani?? Would he become a Yankee…TOO? E. Rodriguez?

    • redfanorbust

      Just looked it up on MLB trade rumors. Huge overpay by the Yankees.

    • JayTheRed

      Their lineup is crazy now if they stay healthy.

  34. Kevin H

    No it’s not too high. If you want to compete you gotta take a chance.

    • JayTheRed

      I don’t agree with you almost ever Kevin H. but today I do. The Yankees had to pay a boat load to get one of the games top hitters.

  35. wkuchad

    From Rotoworld: “Eduardo Rodriguez is down to two finalists for his services will likely make a decision within the next day, according to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman. There really hasn’t been much word on who is in the mix for Rodriguez. The Mets are known to have touched base with him. It seems likely that the Tigers are out after signing Kenta Maeda.”

    So there’s still a chance!

    • Rob

      This would be a really solid get. Understand the money to be around $80M for 4 years. If he is down to 2 teams as being reported, I hope the Reds are not #2. With all our young pitchers, is this a desirable landing spot for him? Or is money money and the environment does not matter? The two offers must be in the same ballpark.

      • RedBB

        Agree…spend the money Ca$tellini. Your legacy at risk

      • wkuchad

        I would 100% go $80M for 4 years for Rodriguez, however a 5th year is a no-go.

        I’d be ecstatic if we signed him for $80M for 4 years.

    • earmbrister

      The Diamondbacks are said to be one of the two finalists. Wouldn’t be surprised that we have just learned that because they are finalizing things with him.

      If not ERod, sign Lugo or Wacha. Just need one more reliable arm in the rotation and we don’t necessarily need to break the bank to add that arm.

  36. Reddawgs2012

    I think all of Cease, Glasnow, and Bieber have too many red flags to give up serious prospect capital. I’d much rather see them sign Marcus Stroman.

  37. Oldtimer

    (1966 Trade Proposal Kiboshed By Cardinals Ownership)

    … Before trading for Orlando Cepeda, Bob Howsam (then Cardinals GM) tried to deal pitchers Steve Carlton and Nelson Briles, outfielder Mike Shannon, and infielder Phil Gagliano to the Reds for shortstop Leo Cardenas, first baseman Gordy Coleman and pitcher Joey Jay, but the Cardinals’ “high command” vetoed the trade, The Sporting News reported …

    Jay and Coleman retired in 1967. Cardenas played a few more years. Gagliano was eventually a Red.

    • west larry

      Interesting trade proposal back in the day that I never heard of. As a reds fan, I’d want to take that trade in a heartbeat, if cardinals brain trust had allowed it.

  38. Greenfield Red

    An interesting thing for me is this: 3 or 4 years ago, San Diego and the White Sox had the two best farm systems in MLB. Both, but especially SD spent prospect capitol (big trades) and big money (Machado, Luis Robert) to get them over the hump. It didn’t work for either, and now both are back peddling.

    I don’t want the Reds to cycle through in 3 or 4 years. It seems they have a plan, and I hope they stick to it. Hollowing out the farm for two years of a guy with a lot of potential but a lot of questions is not the way to go. In my opinion.

    • AllTheHype

      Indeed. Trading away 12+ years of control for two of our best prospects (pitchers!) makes zero sense.

      We have payroll flexibility. Sign another pitcher + sign Michael Taylor if they think he fits.

      Keep the prospects.

      • DaveCT

        Greenfield, another point. WE are in the position of advantage here. WE are in the position of strength. WE have the better bargaining chips. It is categorically absurd to chase after this deal for one more second.

        Cease is not that good. The White Sox are increasingly motivated to move him, if not getting desperate. And our prospects are Top of the Top. To propose this is, IMO, unserious (see my post below).

        And, this: If they want our prospects that badly, they’ll be back. If I’m Nick Krall, I tell them to get lost, crack a beer and see what’s happening elsewhere.

    • greenmtred

      Excellent post, Greenfield Red.

  39. Gaffer

    That sounds like the PUIG deal. NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

  40. Mark

    Tom Mitsoff – “getting an established pitcher with a four-season track record of MLB performance.” Don’t see how you can call him “established.” Had 1 great year and 4 at best average years. Do you not think that Williamson could replicate or better the season that Cease had in 4 of his past 5 years? His MLB career stats are a 4.06 ERA. Agree that young potentially good players are often overvalued as are veterans with so-so statistics. I would take a flyer on Nolan Ryan – not going to get 300 innings and 300 strikeouts from him anymore but maybe half that!!
    Cease in last 5 years
    5.79 ERA
    4.01
    3.91
    2.20
    4.58

    • Oldtimer

      Reds traded 3-time All-Star 2B Johnny Temple to Cleveland for “MLB starting pitcher” Cal McLish in 1960. McLish was terrible as a Red but went on to pitch several decent years in the AL. Fortunately Cleveland threw in 1B Gordy Coleman who become starter for Reds until 1966.

      https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mclisca01.shtml

      The Reds did something similar in 1957. Starting OF Wally Post (later reacquired) for SP Harvey Haddix. Haddix was good but for Pittsburgh, not the Reds.

  41. Schottzie

    This feels like a similar ask to the Mat Latos deal.

    • Oldtimer

      Exactly. Reds needed SP and overpaid. But Latos gave them 3 good years.

    • AllTheHype

      Stronger ask for Cease in my opinion, and Latos had 4 years of control and Cease has but 2.

      Petty and Lowder are both likely to be top 100 prospects this year. Not the time for the Reds to be mortgaging the farm for two years of a good, not great pitcher.

    • Hotto4Votto

      The structure is somewhat similar but this does feel like a higher ask due to years of control for Latos. I touched on the Latos deal above a bit as part of a longer post. 4 top 11 prospects for two years of control vs 3 top 10 prospects and an veteran ML starter for 4 years of control. Overall prospect talent is better over in the Latos deal. But they were dealt from a position of depth (C and 1B) whereas you can never really have enough pitching depth.

  42. DaveCT

    This trade proposal is simply absurd, so much so, it seems amateurish or, worse, Bowden-esque, sensationalistic.

    Bowden, we know, truly is Theater of the Absurd. And, the White Sox can’t be too faulted for asking, if they in fact did.

    But this is an unserious proposal. It’s beneath either professional baseball management, or, perhaps more likely, professional baseball reporting.

    It’s comical and a joke.

    To quote Logan Roy, in response to a business move proposal, “You are not serious people.”

    If I am Nick Krall, that’s what my response would be, and hang up.

    If they really want our prospects, they’ll be back. But no way in a million years would I chase after this deal, or even Dylan Cease for that matter.

    • Greenfield Red

      Agree DaveCT (in the great Northwest). If they want Petty, Jorge, and Almonte, the Reds should do it. This is silly.

    • Nick in NKY

      I think you have it right. This offer on its face is a ludicrous overpay. But I don’t think they expected to be taken seriously. They’re either starting way high for later negotiation; or more likely, they want to deal with someone else.

      I’ll be surprised if Cease is moved before the Yamamoto domino falls. I think he’s the big get this year (for pitching), and whoever misses out on him might be more motivated to deal for Cease. ChiSox will continue to make outlandish offers until they have a finer idea of who they’ll be dealing with in late January.

  43. Greenfield Red

    One more thing about the current state of the Cincinnati Reds: In the very recent past they have used the Rule 5 draft (either draft or draft and trade) to fill out the roster or to add some middling AA guy to the system. They passed today which is a sign of a crutch they don’t currently need.

    • DaveCT

      And, they added some very, very interesting pieces in the minor league phase. Check RML.

  44. NorrisHopperdaGoat

    Done deal for me. Try to work them down if possible, but I’d pull the trigger.

  45. Indy Red Man

    Wayyyy too high, but RLN is also selling Cease short. He has an elite arm, he’s durable, and age 28-30 is the prime of most athletes careers. Now Lowder is untouchable imo, but I’d offer something with Lodolo & Petty. Cease is better then HG. Ashcraft might turn into a Corbin Burnes type, but Cease is currently better then him too. Idk? You have to roll the dice at some point. Can’t keep collecting pretty prospects and feel good about anything. The White Sox just did it and how’d that work out?

  46. jmb

    There’s no way the Reds should give up Petty and Lowder for Cease, and the Sox want even more than that! The title of this post should not be a question at all. Move on, Reds!

  47. Michael B. Green

    I don’t blame Getz for asking for a ton. I do worry about Cease’s walks though. Still, there is competition for Cease, and the high bidder will win. We’ll know in a day or two who is going to anchor our staff.

  48. Eddiek957

    Latos had more control if I remember correctly. So I agree this may not be the trade. I see Tom’s point. Just think a bold free agent signing since we should have money Possibly the lefty from Japan?

  49. Redsvol

    Absolutely too much. If we trade those two pitchers it could be 4 years before a new young pitcher is worthy of cracking the staring rotation. Plus they are both within a year of pitching innings in the big leagues.

    Why trade those 4 top players when you can just sign Rodríguez or lugo for market value when you have payroll room for at least the next 3 years. It would be different if we were close to maxed out on payroll. Cease probably is cheap by todays standards and that should be more valuable to a dodgers or Red Sox team- not to the Reds

  50. Jon

    I feel like Stroman has become the forgotten free agent SP. We keep hearing about trade candidates (Cease, Glasnow, Bieber) and other free agents (Rodriguez most notably). What about Stroman? Is he an option for the Reds?

    • AllTheHype

      His horrific second half might give the Reds pause. NK said he’s not looking for upside candidates, and Stroman’s horrific second half puts him in that category.

  51. MBS

    So we didn’t lose anyone in the Rule 5 Draft? Nice. We also didn’t take anyone so we have an open spot on the 40 man. Maybe we are one of the 2 teams that Rodriguez is considering. We should know where he ends up tomorrow.

    • AllTheHype

      There’s a lot to like about Rodriguez. Five quality pitches, mixes them well, “knows” how to pitch. Seems like he would age well, might be a good risk if not more than 4 years. Left handed version of Sonny Gray in some ways.

  52. Votto4life

    Well, sounds like the White Sox are pulling Cease off the market anyway. It was a nice thought why it lasted. Honestly, I wouldn’t give up a
    similar package for Glasnow. Which is what it would take. Maybe more. I also think adding Bieber, at any cost, would be a mistake. Back to square one.

  53. Ron

    PASS ON: Cease (Sox will continue to want too much)
    INSTEAD: Trade Jake Fraley, Jose Barrero and Levi Stoudt to Cleveland for Shane Bieber and left handed reliever Sam Hentges OR just sign Michael Wacha or Seth Lugo.

    PASS ON: Taylor
    INSTEAD: Sign either Randal Grichuk or Adam Duvall

    • Votto4life

      I wouldn’t trade Fraley for Bieber straight up.

      • Votto4life

        Besides, the Cleveland GM today kind of threw cold water on any Shane Bieber trade. Calling Bieber “Our guy”. Maybe they tried to trade him and they didn’t like the offers. Who knows?

  54. Billy

    Pass on trading. Sign Free Agents keep prospects to add to roster at trade deadline.

  55. Kevin Patrick

    I honestly have no idea what would be fair for Dylan Cease. I would lean towards “no” on the trade suggestion not necessarily because of the terms of the deal, but rather proceeding under the premise that the Reds have the position players to contend is still uncertain in my opinion. I can see why many of us are believers in this group yet I remain hesitant to go all in till I see McLain continue, Elly adjust, Marte do it for 3 months, and Strand hit well enough post Votto. I still need to know if our catching tandem can hit for more power. I actually think the Reds know what they have in the outfield…it ain’t too shabby. But is it really strong enough ? These prospects of ours will be here to deal for quite a while. Playoffs is where you need the veteran pitcher… possibly swing a deal at the All Star break.

  56. Votto4life

    On MLB.com Krall said they had a lot of conversations, but just wasn’t able to get anything done. Sounds like they are looking to strengthen the bullpen through minor league signings as we get closer to Spring Training.

    • Jason Franklin

      That really kind of stinks. If they go with this current rotation, it doesn’t match well with the top teams even in the division. I wonder if the conversations were just trades? Did they have no inclincation of even signing anyone else? There are still some good pitchers out there in FA.

      • Votto4life

        He basically said they would keep working to improve the team. It didn’t sound like anything is close. He did mentioned they would be open to adding a corner infielder who can switch and that could move Steer to left field. But again, it didn’t sound like anything is close.

      • greenmtred

        The rotation is very young they are unlikely to be the same in 24 as were this past season.

  57. Indy Red Man

    Watcha was throwing up to 96-97 about 2-3 years ago and now he’s 91. Idk? He’s definitely learned how to actually pitch, but big drop in velo says he’s about done

  58. G in Fla

    Maybe if Cease was a true#1 type pitcher but not in my book. He’s really only had 1
    very good year. I,d rather have Rodriguez.

  59. LDS

    I saw the posts here on Taylor. If this is the kind of player Krall is targeting, we fans are in for another long year. They had just as well resign Senzel as pay twice as much for Taylor.

  60. AllTheHype

    Reds and DBacks are the two finalists for Rodriguez.

      • LDS

        Did you really think the Reds were finalists? Maybe Krall signs a couple more mediocre 30+ utility guys or a guy like Taylor. Then he’ll trot out the line about trying but everything was too expensive. You know just like at last summer’s trade deadline.

      • AllTheHype

        @LDS, perhaps you haven’t noticed, but the Reds have already invested tens of millions in free agents this winter, and are popping up in rumors to spend more. Your argument is tired, inaccurate, and nauseating. Give it a rest.

      • LDS

        @AllTheHype, they signed a couple of roster fillers, the sum of which didn’t equal Votto’s salary. Not game changers. Sign someone that changes the team’s trajectory, then I’ll retract my statements. The last time that happened was Williams and he was ousted.

    • LDS

      DBacks, 4 years at $20M AAV. Affordable but the Reds are cheap and how many FAs really want to join this mediocre organization.

      • Colorado Red

        LDS, that is what I was thinking.
        E-Rod was the one I wanted.
        Krall, will do nothing, no trades, no singings.
        More dumpster diving (maybe).
        Another year, of just missing out on the post season.

      • Stock

        Too much for Rodriguez. Good move by the Reds to avoid another Moose like contract.

        Amazing how people say Cease with a 12.6 WAR the last three years stinks and Rodriguez with a WAR the last 3 years of 7.6 is a game changer.

  61. Larry Baker

    Keep what the Reds have. No need to make a bad trade. The Reds have talent now. No need to trade the farm for one pitcher. Just keep allowing the talent to develop. Be like the Braves in the old days. They knew how to judge their own talent. They knew the players who wouldn’t make it big. They would build these margin players up. Trade for a need. Most of these big name prospects didn’t have long careers in the majors. Judging talents is key to success. Take your time on moving players with talent. No need to be in a rush. Don’t be trading off potential super-stars just win a trade on paper. Baseball is played on a field, not on a piece of paper.

    • doofus

      Who are Red’s potential “super-stars” that should not be traded?

  62. William

    The Reds should not trade any of their top pitcher prospects. Spend $50-$60 million wisely on free agents.

    • Colorado Red

      Do not need him.
      We have a loaded infield as it is.
      WE NEED A STARTING PITCHER.
      A big right handed outfield bat.
      Another bad move, by the Reds.

      • Amarillo

        Seems like the big Right Handed outfield bat is going to be Steer.

      • Jon

        If they use India as trade bait (along with prospect(s?)), they can trade for a controllable SP. It seems they’d rather save money by doing something like that than spend $20-$25 million per year on a free agent.

      • AllTheHype

        I bet CES is the bait for pitching, at least part of it. He has the least positional flexibility and plays same positions as Candelario. I would think Seattle, as they have holes to fill and are dangling pitching.

      • doofus

        CES would seem to be a fit for Seattle, but they are looking for more contact/OBP type hitters….Steer for Brash?

  63. LDS

    Morose is reporting that the Reds are likely to sign Candelario. So who becomes the odd man out? One or more of the rookies is either heading back to Louisville, changing positions, or being traded. India, maybe?

    • Votto4life

      In the article on MLB.com Krall mentioned the Reds would like to add a corner infielder. If they do, it was suggested that they would then move Steer to left field. I took it they were discussing Candelario. Krall also suggested they also would like to add a right handed OF Bat. I took that to mean Michael Taylor.

      The Reds have done nothing so far to improve the offense. I just don’t see Candelrio or Micheal Taylor helping all that much. It seems like another Will Meyers type of signing.

  64. MBS

    OK, so EDLC is going to be our CF in 2024. India will be traded next off season when Arroyo is ready to be called up because Arroyo will take over short, and McLain will slide over to 2B at that point.

    1 EDLC was quoted recently as saying “Wherever the team needs me, that’s where I’m going to play”

    2 The rumors about the Reds and Candelario only make sense if we are trading away 1 of EDLC, Marte, or India. The India thing seems to have been pretty well squashed by Krall, and trading the other 2 doesn’t make sense. The only other solution is 1 of EDLC or Marte is moved to the OF.

    3 If anyone has the tools to be an elite CF it’s EDLC. I am not saying this is the best plan, as I am a huge fan of him at 3B, but it’s the only thing that seems to make sense to me.

    DH FRALEY 7/9 CANDELARIO 2/9
    C STEPHENSON 6/9 MAILE 3/9
    1B CES 7/9 CANDELARIO 2/9
    =========================
    2B INDIA 7/9 BARRERO 2/9
    3B MARTE 7/9 CANDELARIO 2/9
    SS McLAIN 7/9 BARRERO 2/9
    =========================
    RF BENSON 7/9 FRIEDL 2/9
    CF EDLC 7/9 FRIEDL 2/9
    LF STEER 7/9 FRIEDL 2/9

  65. Melvin

    “Reds, Jeimer Candelario Have Had Serious Discussions” – Per mlbtraderumors

    I have a bad feeling about what they’re going to do next.

    • Votto4life

      I am not sure why the Reds have any interest in Candelario. I don’t see where he fits in. All he is going to do is to take at bats away from Marte. They should have worked out a deal with Votto.

      I know some suggest a Candelario signing would allow the Reds to trade one of the young infielders. I just don’t see the Reds trading McLain, Elly or Marte.

      I hope the Reds pass on both Candelario and Taylor.

      • Melvin

        “I know some suggest a Candelario signing would allow the Reds to trade one of the young infielders.”

        That’s mostly what I’m afraid of.

  66. Stock

    I am going to upset many on here except Tom. This is not nearly as bad of an opening offer as stated on here. It is less than the Reds gave up for Latos. It is similar to what the Reds got for Castillo.

    The most important question is what Cease would the Reds receive? The 2021 and 2022 Cease who had a WAR of 4.5 and 4.4 in those two years? Or the Cease of 2023 who had a WAR of 3.7? I also think 1.5 years of Castillo is worth more than 2 years of Cease and 4 years of Latos is worth more than 2 years of Cease.

    I think many on here are vastly over rating Lowder. But I hope those that I feel are overrating him are correct and he is the next great pitcher for the Reds.

    If the Sox replaced Petty with Aguiar I think it would be a fair trade.

    That said it being a fair trade does not mean it is a trade the Reds should make.

    I looked at the 10 year period 2010 – 2019. I compared Doug’s #2, 6, 8 and 16th rated prospects to what I would expect from Cease the next two year. In 3 of the 10 years the Reds would be better off trading for Cease. In one year it is close and in 6 years the Reds would be far better off not making this trade.

  67. G in Fla

    The switch hitting Candelario is a nice fit at 3rd. Marte to ss, McClain to to 2nd, Steer to lf and Elly to rf. Fraley and India DH. Is a more balanced lineup.

    • DaveCT

      Marte is not a ML short stop.

      EDLC was the highest rated defensive short stop on the club last year, as per Doug.

      Moving your best player off his best position is absurd. No one does this.

      Further, EDLC’ arm is an absolute weapon that becomes a wasted tool in the outfield — how many key throws a game does an OF, vs a short stop make?

      Moving your least player defensively to a less demanding position is what rational clubs do.

      It works in fantasy baseball but not in ML player development.

      So, to clear room for Candelaria, move your least infielder. After Steer to LF, that is India.

      Candelaria frees up India to be traded.

      1B Candelaria/CES, LH/RH tandem
      2B MCLain
      SS EDLC/MCLain
      3B Marte/Candelaria rH/LH tandem

      OF Benson/Friedl/Steer/Fraley/Etc

    • Jason Franklin

      I think you are right. So is the Cease trade coming up next then?

    • MBS

      It’s nuts, it might be debatable what this means to roster construction, but it’s clearly a big impact event. Something is about to shake loose.

      Scary thought, how hurt is Marte?

      • Jason Franklin

        Pretty sure they said he would be back way before Spring training rolls around.

    • Stock

      I think this ends Steer’s time with the Reds. Both are similar players.

      Maybe both Steer and India>

  68. Stock

    Some trade proposals:

    1. Sign Candelario and trade Spencer Steer to Seattle for Bryan Woo.

    The Reds actually gain 1 year of control (Steer has 5 remaining and Woo 6).

    2. Trade Connor Phillips, Carlos Jorge and Jay Allen to the Royals for Cole Ragans.

    3. Acquire Candelerio. Trade Spencer Steer to the Marlins for Trevor Rogers and Thomas White

    4. Acquire Candelerio. Trade Spencer Steer, Connor Phillips and Sammy Stafura to the Marlins for Braxton Garrett

    My favorites are #2 and #4. These two pitchers both have 5 more years of control. I would love them both and to do so you would have to flip out Phillips in one for Lowder, Petty or a combination of players. It would make sense to do this in the KC trade.

    Ragans, Garrett and Greene would make a great and young top 3 in the Rotation. Candelerio is at worst a push for Steer so losing Steer does not hurt if you get Candelario

    The Reds are probably a better team the next five years with Garrett and Ragans than they would be with Connor Phillips, Carlos Jorge, Rhett Lowder and Sammy Stafura. They will without a doubt be a better team over then next 2 or three years.

    • DaveCT

      Stock, we already have Woo.

      And, Woo has 1/2 season in the ML’s. He is not needed.

      I do not believe there is any chance we trade our MVP for a redundant piece.

      And Steer plays OF; Candelaria is much more limited defensively as a corner infielder.

      I am ok with the acquisition of Candelaria, in general, as he can complement our young, right handed corner infielders, given his being a switch hitter. And he frees up the trading of India, who has more limitations and less flexibility than Marte or CES.

      Garrett may be in play, as you suggest. And, as a side note, India is from and played his college ball there.

    • Melvin

      “Sign Candelario and trade Spencer Steer to Seattle for Bryan Woo.”

      Trade our team MVP

  69. Melvin

    Ooooh boy. What now? $45 million for three years for a player like that. Man I just don’t know. Scary.

  70. Melvin

    By the way am I the only one not getting email updates on this thread?

  71. doofus

    An infielder or two are most likely to be included in a deal.

    Pads and Yanks were reported to be far apart a few days ago. They got it done. Other than the O’s and Reds, I do not see another team that can afford to move pitching prospects for Cease.

  72. Steve

    Would Connor Phillips, Ty Floyd and Edwin Arroyo work for Cease? Arroyo’s path to the majors is blocked by the logjam of middle infielders at the major league level. Phillips give the White Sox a starter to replace Cease, and Floyd can be a starter two to three years from now.