The winter meetings got started with a bang on Sunday night with a perplexing 5-player deal between Atlanta and Seattle, with the Mariners seemingly making a salary dump. While the Reds haven’t been involved in any trades yet, they continue to be involved in plenty of talks and according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, they remain engaged with the Chicago White Sox about starting pitcher Dylan Cease.

The 27-year-old right-handed starter is coming off of the worst season of his career….. sort of. He made a league best 33 starts for the White Sox in 2023 and he threw 177.0 innings while striking out 214 batters. Those were all good things. But his ERA was 4.58, which was ever so slightly below the league average in terms of ERA+ (97) and his walk rate was the highest it’s been in the last three seasons (though it was just a tad higher than each of the last two seasons).

In 2022 Dylan Cease put together the best year of his career, making a league best 32 starts and posting a career best 2.20 ERA in 184.0 innings. His 78 walks that year were the most in the league, but he countered that with 227 strikeouts and allowed just 16 home runs. He finished second in the American League Cy Young Award voting that season.

From an expected innings standpoint, Dylan Cease would be a huge addition to the Reds rotation. But if he can return to form in terms of his ERA from any of the past few seasons he would very likely be one of the top pitchers in the league. Cease wouldn’t become a free agent until after the 2025 season. He’s arbitration eligible and MLB Trade Rumors projects him to get $8,800,000 this season. He would get more than that in 2025, but the exact amount is unknown because it will be based on how he performs this upcoming season.

122 Responses

  1. JayTheRed

    I really like Cease. I feel like he would definitely move the needle for the Reds. I am even willing to give up one or two top 12 players just to get him. His innings work has been really good and having over 200 strikeouts is also very nice. Hopefully they don’t have to give up too much though. To get this kind of pitcher for multiple years is going to cost us something good and maybe even two something good players.

    We don’t need to keep every infielder we have. Prospects are used to help you improve your team in other areas sometimes. There is not enough spots for all of these infielders for the next 4 years.

  2. Steve Giesting

    So how would Reds fans feel if they didn’t make a move for a pitcher this offseason? I don’t know if I would want to give up the depth they currently have for only a 1 year rental like Glasgow or Bieber. And how much is it going to cost to get Cease? I think more than just moving India and a lower level prospect. I think a starting 5 of Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Abbott, and Williamson is very solid. Then you have Phillips and the others in Louisville for depth and injury starts. I have thought that maybe doing so well last season might not have been a good thing if it makes the team stray from the path of the rebuild and rush to add pieces. Just my 2 cents

  3. Mario

    The capital would have to be massive to get him. Not sure how I feel about that thinking it may be Phillips, Arroyo, and Collier headed out. All it takes is one pitch and Cease is useless for at least a year. Rodriguez is the guy to target. He only costs $$$. 4 years 100 million should get it done. He was projected for less but the market is robust.

    • JayTheRed

      This is a very generalized statement. Any player the Reds acquire can fall into that. 1 pitch or 1 at-bat, or one stolen base, or one dive for a ball.

      If you want something good you have to give up something good in return.

      • Greenfield Red

        They don’t have to give up anything. Free agent is the way to go. Lots of guys out there. Payroll is still low. Heck it would still be low if they signed a pitcher for 3/90.

    • doofus

      All it takes is one pitch and Rodriguez is useless for at least a year. The point is all types of deals come with risks.

      Rodriguez has some injury history. Cease I believe is a Boras client.

      • greenmtred

        All deals come with risks. The difference is that if Cease blows his arm out, we lose him, but we’ve also lost the players we traded for him. If a FA pitcher gets hurt, we’re out the money but not the players.

      • doofus

        All of the prospects we keep and Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Williamson, Abbott, Petty, Phillips, et al can blow their arms out.

        I am forever reading how every player the Reds might trade for will become injured. Yeah, it could happen, but then again it will not happen.

        It has become comical. To believe that so many can believe that the Reds should not trade for someone because they may become injured.

      • doofus

        Ah, I finally realize that once any player becomes a Red’s prospect he is guaranteed to become a successful major league ball player. How stupid of me. We should not trade any of them for already successful major league ball players.

    • Old Big Ed

      The Reds are in the unique position of having plenty of money to spend on free agents AND plenty of excellent prospects to trade.

      I’m in the camp of when in doubt, use the money and not the prospects. A team can depend on a stream of money coming in every year, but rebuilding a prospect pipeline can take some time. That doesn’t mean that they should not listen to reasonable trade offers, especially for pitchers.

      It’s only money; they make more of it every day.

    • Rob

      But “excess” prospects is our strength. We can outbid anyone for anybody. We have both future prospects and mlb ready. Alternatively cash is our susposed weakness. We shy away from 5 year $100M deals. Nothing against Rodriguez but I actually think a #2 starter with a 2 year contract is perfect for our developing pitching staff.

      I would think a deal approximate to Castillo would be in the right range. What was that a #2, #5, and #15 prospect? Arroyo, Stewart, Richardson, and a throw in like Fraley. That costs us a whole $8M. That also frees up cash to get the everyday OF bat. Or you could swing for the fences and get Robert while you are at it. There is your leftover cash. I am still a tad cautious about trading my young pitchers though. Not resistant but cautious . I am not totally convinced Lodolo and Greene are all they out to be. This will be Year 3. Sooner rather than later they ought to be producing 10-12 wins each year rather than 5. Phillips and Williamson better not be too far away.

      • Amarillo

        I wouldn’t say our prospects are excess just yet. We basically have 2 groups. The guys on the team already (Marte, Phillips, all the Rookies), and 20 and unders in A ball. The 20 and unders will mostly not be Major League ready for 2 or more years. We don’t have a lot in the middle of those groups besides Hinds. If we had a bunch of blocked prospects in AA that would be different, but we don’t. The supposedly blocked infielders won’t be up to the mahors until 2025 or 2026 and who knows what happens before then.

      • DaveCT

        Dylan Cease isn’t Luis Castillo. Not even close.

      • Captain redleg

        I’d love to see Robert and cease in a trade to the reds that could put us in the world series for the next 2 years + and we definitely have a log jam at the ss position with quite a few high ranked prospects….we don’t need to send any of pitching prospects out though

    • Mario

      I am hearing continued interest in Candelario. To me, that means someone like Marte, McLain, or CES would go in a trade for Cease. That’s a deal breaker. Minor leaguers are one thing, not starters on this team in 2024. Lots of negativity on this thread. Folks think their opinion is always the correct one. I think the Reds will regret it if they trade for Cease. Pitchers are always one pitch away from a serious injury. The risk is much less with a position player. Yeah, ACL’s get torn but most position player injuries are not season ending. It’s not just the injury risk, it’s what they are potentially trading away. I’m actually satisfied with the pitching staff at this point. Of course I would like to have Cease or Rodriguez, even Bieber or Stroman. Just much prefer the free agent route.

      • jmb

        Lots of teams are interested in Candelario, teams that have deeper pockets than the Reds. The only reason he hasn’t signed is because teams like Toronto, the Angels, and Dodgers are focused on Ohtani. Once he signs, Candelario will within days…and not with the Reds, who say now (though nothing is itched in stone) that they don’t want to trade India this off-season. Krall has said recently that both he and EDLC will try other positions next season, but India may stay at second, with Marte and McLain at third and short. EDLC’s arm, if he doesn’t work out in the infield, seems a lock in right. Then a year or two down the road, India’s gone and Arroyo takes over at short, pushing McLain to second. So how do you acquire Cease (as Glasnow seems headed to Cubs)? The Sox are desperate for starters, and the Reds have several that are on the cusp. Greene (to get rid of his contract!) should go. Collier going with him should be enough. But I wouldn’t trade Ashcroft and Philips.

      • Mario

        jmb – very good points about Candelario. But trade Greene? He’s been inconsistent sure but man some games he is lights out. If he stays healthy, I think he is a potential Cy Young winner. His contract is plenty affordable even if he meets all escalators in the deal. I also would not trade Collier. He has the pedigree and motivation to be successful. Can’t wait to see him in Dayton.

  4. SR

    I agree about free agency versus trade. We can afford to trade a middle infielder(preferably India) and prospects too. The trade rumors for Glasnow giving up both Phillips and Ashcraft are insane. If that is the market, go buy a starter.

    • MBS

      Bowden was a bit nuts with his proposal. I read another article saying the same thing. The Rays are moving him for a salary dump, so it will cost something, but Ashcraft or Lodolo would not be included. I could see the other part of his trade proposal with Phillips, and Collier.

      I wouldn’t do that. I’d like a FA starter if we can get it, or a trade for Bieber.

      • Ahimsa

        Bieber missed 2 months last year with an elbow issue?

        Makes me wary.

  5. Don

    2019 ERA 5.79
    2020 ERA 4.01
    2021 ERA 3.91
    2022 ERA 2.20
    2023 ERA 4.58

    As is the case with so many pitchers, its a crap shoot. At his best, he is a top tier pitcher. At his worst, he is a very mediocre hurler tops, even on this staff. Are you getting the 2022 version of Cease or the 2023 version of Cease? No way to know for sure, but you would hate to give up a lot to obtain a pitcher whose numbers ultimately might not be much better than what you could get from someone who is already in the rotation.

    I also wonder if these Cease discussions are running concurrently with the Tyler Glasnow and Shane Bieber discussions or have the Reds, for whatever reason, moved on from those two.

    • Pete

      Although, just in looking at your ERA chart here, there’s a definite improvement year-after-year, from 2019 through 2022. Yes, 2023 was a relatively poor year, but I would bet on the progression he showed in the previous 4 years.

    • Old Big Ed

      Cease’s FIPs over the past three years have been 3.41, 3.10 and 3.72 last season, so he has been fairly consistent at least in some terms. I’ll give him a pass in 2023 for some slump in his raw numbers, given the overall malaise in that franchise last season. He tends to walk too many guys, but he is legitimately good, and he answers the bell, with 97 starts over 3 years.

      • Captain redsleg

        And with the whitesox pretty much out of contention all season and him rarely getting any run support of course his stats are a little inflated

  6. redfanorbust

    If they did trade for him I wonder if he and the Reds would be interested in a extension as a condition of the trade or would he and the Reds see how he performed this year before making that decision? Lots of competition for him driving the price up right now. Does Victor Acosta, Jonathan India and Conner Phillips get the job done I wonder? Too much, too little? I don’t know what ownership alloted for player budget but I sure hope it is near the league average 113M aprox. I want Reds to avoid trades and spend on one more above average SP and everyday RH OF power bat. Imagine if we can fill our needs AND keep our players as quality backups are always needed due to injuries and whatnot during the year. Now is the time IMO to be bold and make significant upgrades. Cubs and Cardinals as we have seen are not sitting still and ready to spend a lot of money. Cubs going after Othani and other big names!

    • JayTheRed

      In Cease’s case I would rather see what he does this season since they would have him for more than one season. If he rocks it then you go and see if we can extend him.

      • redfanorbust

        Hey JAYTHERED, That’s very much the way I would lean if we signed Cease however I just found out he is a Boris client so that pretty much kills that dream of an extension.

  7. Optimist

    Trader Jerry starts the fireworks – “with the Mariners seemingly making a salary dump” as Doug comments.

    The M’s have several needs, and fans also expect a large $$$ acquisition – it’s very quiet, but they must be looking at Ohtani, Soto and Bellinger, each of which, obviously, requires a huge outlay. They also have a need at 2b, which brings in the Reds rumors.

    Reds clearly aren’t going to spend freely on either Cease or Glasnow, and the prospects costs seem way too high, as noted in the comments above and in many other threads, but there may still be multi-player/multi-team deals available.

    • doofus

      I do not think it is clear the Reds will not go after Glasgow or Cease. I would peg it as clearly possible.

    • JayTheRed

      The prospect cost in any pitching trade is always high. I don’t ever remember a time in the last 23 years where it was said that you can get a really good pitcher for not too much cost.

      This guy is pretty darn good at pitching. I would be willing to trade some of our prospect plethora in order to get a near the top or top arm.

      • Thatthathadhad

        I would prefer no top prospects get traded yet . This team is very young and they are probably still a year or two away. Patience is key. I am all for signing players right now.

    • jmb

      M’s will sign Snell, who has said he wants to play in Seattle, being from there. So they’ll have arms to trade, even after ridding themselves of Marco Gonzalez’s contract, and very well may be in on Soto. I wonder if they’d part with Cal Raleigh. I’d like to see the Reds land him and Hancock. Would India and Stephenson be enough?

  8. Rick

    We had all of that money to spend and could’ve(and possibly still can) use that on a FA pitcher. Here we are ready to possibly give up top farm prospects. White Sox will want prospects.
    Tampa will want a controllable starter & 2 farm hands.
    We shouldn’t have missed on Gray. He would’ve helped our young guys & and anchor long enough for a couple of years to allow our young starters to develop and build innings.

    • Colorado Red

      Tampa, is over asking.
      Everyone knows they have a salary dump,
      Glasnow has never pitcher more the 120 innings.
      They can always ask, I think most teams say no.
      There is a reason why Bowden is a writer and not a GM/

      • Rick

        We had money to acquire a FA & retain our farmlands.
        Agree about Tampa but they usually find a sucker to over pay. Just hope that it’s not us doing an over pay.
        Dodgers type, keep him mostly bubble wrapped until late summer leading up to the playoffs.
        I never pay any attention to Bowden, he’s a wacky hack thatsays weird stuff to draw attention to himself..

      • jmb

        Cubs will get Glasnow. They want to sign Chapman for third and Hoskins for first, which means they’ll have young players to trade. And they’ve got the money to pay Glasnow’s $25 mil.

    • Rick

      Correction; we have money, not “had”.

    • Michael E

      I saw a trade of Glasnow for Lyon Richardson. That does make sense if Reds eat entire $25 million salary. If the Reds asked TB to cover 10 million of it, then yes, the Reds would have to send back two solid/good prospects or current MLBers, such as Ashcraft and Richardson or Ashcraft and India. Glasnow is just one year of control and expensive at that (but I’d argue worth it for the Reds, provided they don’t over pay with more than one solid prospect around the #10-14 range).

      If TB doesn’t want to eat any salary, then they’re only looking at a solid prospect (not anything top 100 MLB) or a solid current MLB youngster with two or more controllable years (like Ashcraft) and that’s it.

  9. RedBB

    Cease and Colas for Phillips, Lorenzen, India and Balcazar. Slight overpay per Baseball Trade Values

      • Jimbo44CN

        Now this is truly nuts. Giving up 2 good young pitchers and India for Cease and Coca Colas? Glad you are not the GM

      • RedBB

        @Jimbo44CN You should take your coke bottle rose colored glasses if you think we can get him for less. LMAFO….there is an article by a White Sox site that is proposing truly outrageous prices for Cease.

  10. doofus

    You can’t always get what you want, but if you try sometime you get what you need.

  11. Votto4life

    I don’t see the Reds signing a FA Starter. The Reds seem to be avoiding long term contracts. I think what made Martinez and Pagán attractive to the Reds, was they were willing to sign short term contracts

    Bieber and Glasnow make sense because the Reds would only be on the hook for one year. Dylan Cease is kinda in the same boat except his contract will be cheaper and the Reds would only be on the hook for two years.

    I hate to see the Reds give up prospects, but I think this is where it is heading. If they are going to spend some of their prospect capital, Dylan Cease is who you spend it on. To a lesser extent, Shane Bieber.

    • Thatthathadhad

      Reds got Spencer Steer and CES. For Tyler Mahle. Talk about a serious overpay. Let’s avoid the same mistake the twins made. But that is what the market bears.

      • jmb

        Remember that Mahle’s stats away from GABP were very good. It was a good trade for the Twins. It just didn’t work out in their favor. What’s even worse is that they resigned Correa when they didn’t even need a shortstop!

  12. KenLip

    The elevated walk numbers are as consistent as they are concerning. If the price is right, fine, but those BBs scare me.

  13. docproc

    India and a pitching prospect. Sweeten the deal if necessary with another lower-level prospect.
    Cease started 33, 32, and 32 games the last three years (and 12 in shortened 2020). Just the kind of reliable rotation piece we need.

    • SultanofSwaff

      The ChiSox have an opening at 2b but have their SS of the future near ready. Yeah, India could fit their needs and they’d also require a SP to replace Cease, preferably one with control and upside. To that end, Ashcraft or Williamson+Richardson might get it done.

      • VaRedsFan

        No way should they give up Ashcraft, or BWill

  14. LDS

    I like Cease but it depends on the cost. I’m not inclined to give up Phillips and Collier which are frequently mentioned in some of the articles. Better than Glasnow, who is way too expensive for one year.

    • David

      Cam Collier is still pretty young, and while pegged as talented, may never really make it in the Majors. He may be YEARS away.
      I like Connor Phillips, and he would likely be the centerpiece to a trade for Cease.

      The White Sox likely want to compete NEXT YEAR, and Connor could be a starter in the Majors next year (well, he started a couple of games for the Reds this year).

      I also think that it is likely that most teams have advanced scouting reports on all the players in question, and I honestly doubt most teams want Jonathon India. I really like the guy, but just on statistics, he is not a top-tier player in a trade.

      • Optimist

        India may not be top tier, and 2b is close to the last position to fill/must have, but India is plenty talented and has plenty of value. It would take more, but just one prospect, not multiple.

        With all that, I still don’t want to trade him. He’s an excellent 300-350 AB 2b/3b/DH. The 6th man among the infielders currently on the roster.

      • LDS

        I agree that Collier is very young and may never make it to the Reds. On the other hand, he seems like he was born to hit. Not to mention that he seems like a guy that’s willing to do what is necessary to succeed. The Reds need guys like that. And, while I like Cease and he’s young enough to contribute for several years, I don’t see him reaching perennial All-Star status. Those that will or have are way outside the Reds’ price range.

  15. Mike Wasserman

    Cease, Bieber, Glasgow, etc. Come on Reds. Make a deal before another opportunity is claimed by another — especially a division rival! And don’t go through this one year at a time contract dance. Each and every signing needs to be 2-3 years. The Big Red machine wasn’t just one year. A Dynasty is just one year.We have the young nucleus to be in the playoffs the rest of this decade. Griffey Jr. is off the books. Votto is off the books, Attendance is up. Luxury tax supplemental revenue is up. Spend the $ now. Rarely does reward come without risk. Get a couple of SPs. If you build IT, they will come!

  16. MK

    Cease is basically a less than 6-innings pitcher per start throughout his career.That is really the innings eater I want for the quality of talent wanted that has been mentioned here. To me a Stout, Spears, India, Hendrick package would be a little closer for me.I might even want a Class A outfielder back as well.

    • MK

      Not the innings eater( should have said)

    • Optimist

      2 comments –

      1 – that’s a good package from the Reds view, but I doubt it gets it done. Perhaps . . .

      2 – 5 inning SPs are the future – twice thru the lineup is what they need. Getting into the 6th inning is an added benefit. Cease is certainly in the category. 200ip/year is increasingly rare – 130-150 good to great ip is good enough if you have 5 of those. The Reds are close to that.

      • Mark Moore

        This is the way …

        I think it was the WLW Team who was saying more of the younger pitchers are being geared toward 75-80 pitches. If/when that comes to fruition, the days of a no-hitter are gone (unless you count a team no-no). And you’ll really need a couple of guys who regularly go 2-3 innings 2x per week. It may force another roster expansion move (to 28?) and perhaps we’d see the 6-man rotation.

        Far cry from Seaver, Ryan, Carlton, etc. with 250 innings a season and 140+ pitches per game.

      • MK

        Optimist I wouldn’t give any more than that. If that quality of return isn’t enough then let him go elsewhere. With the six they have, none of whom have yet reached their potential they will provide what Cease provides with their improvement.

      • Jason Franklin

        Optimist: 5 inning starters are already the now. With the costs teams put into their starters, they want to keep them safe from injuries and I assume they see the arm fatigue issue as the major cause.

        What I am really wondering, and it probably sounds nuts (but the MLB players would love it), when do the rosters get expanded to allow for larger bullpens? Permanently, not just the last month. If MLB is going towards shorter innings for starters, they need to increase roster sizes.

      • Melvin

        The baseball commissioner wants to decrease the roster size in hopes of making the starter go longer.

      • Jason Franklin

        Melvin: The baseball commish is something else.. that’s not a good idea. But, we are talking about the guy who represents the owners and if they can save money by not expanding (save money on rosters), then that is his goal. Screw the pitchers’ arms.

      • Melvin

        @Jason Franklin – There are not too may people that are fond of him.

      • Michael E

        IT’s ironic, paying SP1/2/aces bigger and bigger money and asking them to pitch less and less to protect that huge investment.
        Supreme definition of idiocy.

        If I signed a stud pitcher (Yamamoto or healthy Ohtani), I’d tell them I expect 220 innings from them or averaging between 6 and 7 innings a start, nothing less. If they balk, tell em to pound sand. They’re going to EARN every million or go skate by at 5IP/S for some other chump team.

    • RedBB

      There are not a lot of starting pitchers that aren’t making $25M+ that average more than 6 innings a game. Top 10 in the AL was 185 IP and Cease was at 177 IP.

  17. Mike W

    Corrected version: Cease, Bieber, Glasgow, etc. Come on Reds. Make a deal before another opportunity is claimed by another team — especially a division rival! And don’t go through this one year at a time contract dance. Each and every signing needs to be 2-3 years. The Big Red Machine wasn’t competitive for just one year. A Dynasty doesn’t last just one year.We have the young nucleus to be in the playoffs the rest of this decade. Griffey Jr. is off the books. Votto is off the books, Attendance is up. Luxury tax supplemental revenue is up. Spend the $ now. Rarely does reward come without investment and risk. Get a couple of SPs. If you build IT, they will come!

  18. Grand Salami

    All these trade links – It does not sound like the Reds are going to pursue a Frontline starter via free agency.

    They pop up in trade talks a lot but never FA rumors.

    • Doug Gray

      That’s because top of the line starters in free agency cost $150,000,000+ and they’re never, ever going to do that.

      • Melvin

        Could that be the reason teams like the Dodgers, Yankees etc. always have a talented team while keeping a strong farm system? They don’t trade prospects nearly as often?

      • RedsGettingBetter

        Despite reportedly they were in Nola conversations….Of course, one thing is to be in conversations but another to have a deal …

      • Melvin

        I think Big Bob would like us to believe the Reds are/were in on a lot of players. More than likely just blowing smoke.

  19. RedsGettingBetter

    Yeah, get Cease offering Phillips, India and Jose Acuña/ Jay Allen II…Is it short for Cease?

  20. Mark Moore

    Miley officially off the available list. Pretty “cheap” by today’s standards, too. If we were in on him at all, perhaps he didn’t want to return to the scene of his no-no.

    • Jason Franklin

      I really like Miley, but he is a true injury risk right? I think they need to find another starter who will take a 2 year deal with an option to opt out after the first. The problem with that sort of guy is that it is usually a pitcher trying to comeback or prove something. The really good starters won’t sign that sort of deal the Reds are offering.

  21. Colorado Red

    Wade sings with Brewers
    7 Mil this year.
    12 mil option next year with 1.5 mil buyout.
    Incentives could increase it to 11 mil this year.
    Seems like the opt out, was not the best move

  22. Melvin

    I’m not comfortable trading any one of our top five starters. (Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Abbott, Williamson) for two years of a starting pitcher. It would probably only be one year anyway as the Reds would look to move him before free agency.

    • Colorado Red

      With the guys we have in the minors, I would consider Williamson, but none of the others.

      • Melvin

        I like Williamson more than some others because he’s a lefty.

      • Greenfield Red

        Agree 100% Melvin. They’ve accumulated so much talent, I hate to give anyone up. There is a 50/50 chance whatever headliner they give up has as good… maybe even better year that the guy they aquire. Cease is coming off a poor year. Is it a trend? Could Phillips or Williamson have a great year? Not to mention the other guys they’d have to give up (Arroyo, Collier, ect). If they can’t sign a good free agent starter, I want them to stand pat. They’ve made 3 significant improvements to the staff since August. All the young guys have a year of experience, and everyone seems healthy for ST. Free agent or go with what you got.

        My opinion.

      • Melvin

        I agree Greenfield Red. Free agency more often than not is the best way to go if you want the best chance at long term success.

      • Melvin

        They can at least improve the bullpen with someone like Chapman.

      • BK

        It seems counterproductive to trade a major league-ready/near-ready pitcher for a more established pitcher with question marks. Cease’s 2023 performance is a question mark.

        Williamson improved over the course of the year and actually had a better year in terms of ERA+ than Cease did. As a matter of fact, both Clevinger and Giolito produced higher bWAR than Cease did in 2023–right, not just sign one of them? Neither will command a 9-figure contract.

      • BK

        That is, why not just sign one of the free agents?

      • Greenfield Red

        To add on a little to my opinion, let’s say India, Collier, Arroyo, and Acuna for Cease. Not only does that thin the infield in case of injury, but what if ELDC doesn’t hit? We still don’t know for sure. In this case, you’ve given up a starting infielder, you have a faltering infielder, and his next logical replacement is gone too. Plus you’ve given up Collier and Acuna.

        You can draw the same conclusions with pitching going to Chicago too.

      • Melvin

        As BK said, “Sign a free agent”.

    • MBS

      I’m with you @Melvin. Those 5 are not going anywhere. I’m hesitant to trade any AA or higher prospect with the window we’re in now. Last trade deadline I would have been more aggressive in acquiring pitchers in trade. Now I’m inclined to only deal from our A ball guys if we can or sign a FA. We have the budget, we just need to pull the trigger.

    • Rick

      Agree. Add Phillips, Lowder and Petty to those frontline pitchers that are off the table.

      • wolfcycle

        I am not sold om Petty yet. I know theu are handling him with Kit gloves, but, he may never last in high leverage situations every fifth day. I would include him w/o question. Especially after acquiring Lowder in last years draft. I think Lowder’s floor is a number 3, but his ceiling is a number 2.

      • Rick

        Petty may end up as a 8th inning reliever after a stint lower in the pecking order and elevated to higher leverage if merited.
        Richardson & Floyd might be packaged trade pieces.

    • jmb

      Greene can certainly be traded. Lodolo could be, but at least he’s had some success, so it might be best to wait on him. Collier and Greene for Cease. Acuna will be taken in the Rule 5 draft.

  23. citizen54

    Cease is projected for 2.7 WAR in 2024. Greene and Abbott are projected for more WAR as is Lodolo if he pitches more than 130 innings. Cease would be the #4 starter on the Reds. Reds definitely should not be overpaying for him.

  24. west larry

    I am not a David Bell fan, and was against the three year extension before seasons end. However, he just did a interview on mlbtv, and I was impressed with Bell in that interview. He was good, and I was shocked.

    • Mario

      I didn’t see the interview but he has no obligation to give the media any real answers after a game. A lot of folks want him to be a smooth talker but that’s not in the job description. His job is leadership. Not really sure he’s good at that and there’s no quantitative way to prove it one way or another. He tries to be a player’s manager and be likable not exactly the Jim Leyland or Lou Piniella leadership style. Reading all of the articles about Leyland, he had a unique way of kicking butt and getting everyone’s best effort while still being a guy that players like Bonds and Bonilla respected. Bell’s decisions on playing time and lineups will always be questioned as is the case for every manager.

  25. Old Big Ed

    If the Reds are going to trade with the White Sox, I hope that the Reds take a shot at trading a prospect for Eloy Jimenez, who has played some right field in Chicago. The White Sox need a total rebuild, and Jimenez has a contract with two club options the next two years. He doesn’t figure to be there when the White Sox get good again (if ever).

    Jimenez could be had for a middling prospect, and he is more affordable and more consistent than the much older Jorge Soler or Teoscar Hernandez. He was hampered last year with an appendectomy, but that injury should not recur.

  26. Amarillo

    Just sign a free agent. Trading someone off of the ML roster is pointless if the goal is to improve the team, and most of our good prospects haven’t hit AA yet, so their trade value hasn’t peaked yet.

    We have cash available, just use it.

  27. Votto4life

    Mark Sheldon asked Krall about trading for a TOR Pitcher and his response was

    “ I really don’t know the answer to that question — truly,” Krall said. “We signed two guys we really like. I think we’re excited to have them. How can we build on that? Is there going to be a deal? I don’t know the answer to that.”

    This quote doesn’t sound very encouraging to me. Who knows what that means. it may just be GM speak.

    • BK

      Perhaps not the best question by Sheldon … Krall isn’t going to comment on any potential trades.

      Krall said, “How can we build on that?” It sounds like they are still looking to improve, which is encouraging.

    • David

      I think Krall is being pretty cagey here. He may indeed be in discussions for several pitchers, but not going to tip his hand and affect the possible asking price.

      I think that Nick Krall is fairly shrewd, and while reporters and writers make their living getting people to talk to them, and then writing about it, Nick makes his living by managing personnel for the Reds. If the price is wrong, then it would be better if there was no deal.

      And the Reds have to be shrewd. There are no guarantees about the starting pitching that they presently have, regardless of “potential”. Greene may yet arrive (he got the extension), or may just continue to mis-fire. Lodolo seems injury prone, but maybe he won’t be in 2024. Or will. And I would bet that he would not fetch much from any team in a trade at this point in time.
      Ashcraft, Williamson, Abbott, Phillips (about to emerge)….Petty somewhere down the line.

      • AllTheHype

        For every Reds trade or free agent conversation that is reported by the media, Krall probably has 20 more that aren’t reported. He’s surely shaking all the trees and not in any hurry to make a rash decision.

        And I would suspect that the teams pitching (White Sox, Guardians, Tampa, perhaps Seattle) aren’t in any hurry either as the free agent pitching market needs to shake out first.

        It’s a chess game.

  28. doctorrockett

    It’s Snell or nothing in the starter department.

    Additionally , until Hunter Greene has a dependable third pitch he needs to be in the pen.

    • Steve

      Why is it that every time I read the comments here there is one about Hunter Greene needing to move to the bullpen??? He isn’t moving to the bullpen nor should he…he is a 24 year old with just 230 mlb innings and just 200 milb innings pitched…yes he has things to continue to work on and it will come with additional experience…but that experience has to come as an mlb starting pitcher.

      • Old Big Ed

        Snell had 89 IP in his (rookie) age 23 year, which is what Greene just finished. Greene has struck out 12.2/9 IP with 3.6 BB/9. At the same age, Snell walked 5.2/9 IP while striking out 9.9K/9, and then followed it up the next season with a 4.04 ERA. He did not become “Blake Snell” until his age 25 season.

        But by all means, let’s relegate Hunter Greene to the bullpen and replace him with Blake Snell.

      • Mario

        Snell is going to get over $200 million. A contract like that won’t age well.

  29. VegasRed

    Ridiculous to give up highly talented prospects for trades. Just sign Wacha and/or Lugo or the like for 2-3 years. If our young guys produce trade the two vets. It’ s practically certain someone will want them as pitching g is in short supply and even league average dudes are in demand.

    I think Krall understands this.

  30. Nick in NKY

    My opinion has been shifting on these trade talks, but I am wary of the likely overpay that it would take to get Cease. I’m thinking now that he has gotten hyped over one outstanding season more than a consistent body of work. Cease works for me if the trade also brings back Robert or Jiminez and the cost isn’t obscene. I would avoid Bieber unless he comes cheap; coin toss as to whether he continues to slip or regains his old form. Glasnow sounds nice but again, I’d be very cautious of overpaying in prospect capital. Taking on a salary dump with him would be a solid move IMO.

    I think more than ever they should target a mid tier free agent for a shorter deal; preferably a righty given the already left tilt we have. So Wacha, Lugo, or Lorenzen maybe all fit that bill.

  31. LeRoy

    The Reds have enough starting pitchers and they need to continue getting their starts so they can continue to improve. To strengthen the pitching, go get another long exprienced reliever who can step in and help when needed. Add another good reliever to the backend of the game and take our chances on the abundant pitching talent that already exists. What made the Reds exciting last year was their very talented youth and that will be what makes them win this year if we give them the opportunity.

    • WVRedsFan

      100% agree Leroy. You hit the nail on the head. We have a nice stable of starting pitching. I say let these guys grow and get better. Spend the money on the bullpen. I would like to see us deploy a 6 man rotation with Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Abbott, Philps and Williamson. That is the perfect “Righty/Lefty” combination. Several MLB teams have been moving to a 6 man rotation to give a guy an extra day of rest and have a more fresh and stronger group come September/October.

  32. RedBB

    I’d go for Glasnow. He will be far cheaper than Cease and will cost much less consider ing his $25M salary. I would do India for Glasnow straight up. Baseball Trade Values has it almost exactly an even swap (12.8 to 12.6). If we ask for $$$ in return then we have to give up prospects which I would be averse to doing. But say you add $8M from the Rays that means you likely have to give up Stafura who is worth $8M on the site.

    • AllTheHype

      Baseball Trade Values is entertaining for wannabe GMs, but crap.

      • Colorado Red

        Not really true, they hit about 90% of the trades (being close), and fail on 10%.
        Pitching and top end talent is a area they fail in.
        At this point, most of the pitching is way overpriced.

  33. WVRedsFan

    When looking close into Cease’s numbers you will find a guy that has had one exceptional year in 2022. Everything else has been basically a 4 plus ERA otherwise. If you can get a guy like that and not give up to much in return I say pull the trigger but I would not send over players like Philips, Williamson, or Marte etc. Arroyo and maybe a high level pitching prospect in double A that’s fine. Outside of that I would pass and keep what we have. I like what we have in Greene, Abbott, Lodolo, Williamson, Philips and Ashcraft

    • Nick the Greek

      Agree 80% there is great value in adding a #1 at the top of the rotation, then everyone they have slides down one spot. Improving slots 2 thru 6 & you really need 7 starters to win over 162 sched in today’s league

  34. AllTheHype

    Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reports that the Sox asked the Reds for pitching prospects Rhett Lowder and Chase Petty in addition to two position-player prospects for Cease.

    I think it’s safe to say that the White Sox will be trading Cease to some other club.