The Cincinnati Reds are talking about a trade for former Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber with the Cleveland Guardians. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported that this morning, also noting that the club was also talking with Tampa Bay about Tyler Glasnow – though that was discussed earlier this morning here at Redleg Nation.

Shane Bieber won the American League Cy Young Award in 2020 when he posted a 1.63 ERA in 12 starts during the shortened 60-game season. While he hasn’t been quite that good since, his ERA in the three seasons since have been 3.17, 2.88, and 3.80 last year. He hasn’t been able to stay on the mound for a full season in two of those three seasons, though. In 2021 he made just 16 starts and in 2023 he made just 21 starts. In both of those years he missed the entire second half of the season before returning to make two starts in September.

Following his injury in 2021 that cost him the second half of the season his velocity dropped off by 1.5 MPH and it’s never recovered. He’s still been able to find success without it, but he’s watched his strikeout rate go from 31% before the injury to 25% in 2022 and just 20% in 2023. He’s found success by walking next to no one and by keeping the baseball in the ballpark. Still, his strikeout rate has dropped off three straight years and in 2023 it was almost half of what it was in 2020. That’s a concerning trend.

Bieber is under team control for the 2024 season before he would become a free agent. MLB Trade Rumors projects his arbitration number at $12,200,000. That’s half of the amount of money owed to Tyler Glasnow for the 2024 season – he’s set to make $25,000,000 and that’s guaranteed money, not something he and his team will have to go to arbitration for.

As far as Glasnow goes, he’s coming off of a season in which he threw a career high 120.0 innings for Tampa Bay. He posted a 3.53 ERA in that time with 162 strikeouts and 37 walks. The 30-year-old will be entering his final year before reaching free agency, so like Bieber he will be around for just one season. While we haven’t heard what Cleveland is looking for in return, Tampa Bay has reportedly asked for a big league ready starter.

There’s a big difference in how Tyler Glasnow and Shane Bieber go about getting their results. Bieber throws 91.5 MPH, while Glasnow throws 96.5 MPH. Both guys limit the walks, but Glasnow is a big time strikeout pitcher while Bieber is among the lowest strikeout pitchers among starters in baseball. Bieber has been a groundball pitcher for his career, while Glasnow has gone back and forth on that front – but he was a high groundball pitcher in 2023 (51.2%).

The price for the two is likely to be quite different. That’s in both dollars and in trade capital. As noted, Bieber is likely to make about half of what Glasnow is in 2024. But Glasnow is also likely to have more “value” in the minds of front offices given how many more strikeouts he projects to have while having a similarly low walk rate. He’s likely to draw interest from more teams, pushing the price up a bit more.

123 Responses

  1. Colorado Red

    My concern with Shane is his elbow issues last year.
    Per baseball trade values his surplus value value low.
    With the risk, I would not give up too much for him.

    • MK

      His velocity average was down a few mph as well.

      Can’t see Glasgow trade for one year at $25million then loss to Free Agency.

  2. Klugo

    I like the idea of short term commitments to any veteran SPs because I think we have a stable of young arms that probably need just a little more seasoning. Just dont get fleeced.
    I would like to go in a little deeper with the bullpen.

    • LDS

      Agreed, especially if the trade is “affordable”. Without an outstanding 2024 season, he’ll likely be affordable enough to extend, even by the cheap Reds.

    • Mike

      Why? His numbers are on trajectory for a 4/5 starter, while Glasgow’s still an ace

      • Michael E

        Agreed, Glasnow still good when healthy. Bieber is no longer getting strikeouts and is trending like post-good Corey Kluber who fell off the cliff after some arm soreness issues.

      • Jayce

        I don’t understand, 120 innings is most he’s ever pitched and he is 25M?

    • Michael E

      Disagree. This is mediocre Bieber with arm sorenesses. This is not Cy Young level Bieber of 3 years ago. He’s mirroring the NOT good Corey Kluber and Madison Bumgartner years. In two years, some team that signs him for 5 yr deal will be desperate to unload his albatross contract.

      Glasnow, even with missed month(s) would still be better than Bieber. Bieber 160 innings quality would be worth less than 100 innings from Glasnow.

      All THAT said, I’d rather have Eduardo Rodriguez, or trade for Cease before Bieber and maybe before the overpay to get Glasnow and his shaky health and big contract.

      As I noted earlier, I say skip all that and sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto and call it an off-season, save for India for a good BP arm under contract for 2 or more years.

    • Rod Andrews

      Yeah, I’m with you. He’s a guy, unlike Glasgow, who the Reds might be able to sign to an extension. Wouldn’t mind having him for 3 or so years.

      • AllTheHype

        Bieber is a soft tosser now, way below league avg velo, 91.6 vs 94.3 in 2020. His hard hit % jumped almost 5% last year. He’s a shadow of his Cy Young year.

        He’s not someone I want to see the Reds pony up for, in trade or otherwise.

  3. Melvin

    I can see Williamson being part of a trade package and I’m not so sure that’s a good idea.

    • west larry

      don’t trade Williamson. I want Shane for someone else.

      • MBS

        I agree, we should be able to trade some younger A ball guys for Bieber. He’s not going to cost us a kings ransom.

    • JB

      No on Williamson. I think he turned the corner last year and will only get better. Quite honestly the two pitchers I worry about is Greene and Lodolo. Will Greene find another pitch and will Lodolo stay healthy.

    • Colorado Red

      Per baseball trade values, Williamson would be a serious overpay for Bieber.
      He would also be an overpay for Glasnow , but now as much.

      Would prefer not to trade him, but to get junk, unless to give up something.

      • Michael E

        I might be on board for Glasnow, even with one year and a big contrace. Just say no to Bieber, he’s just trending downward too quickly. Sub 4.00 ERA are a thing of the past, especially if he comes to GABP.

        2019 or 2020 Bieber, yes please.
        2024 Bieber, no thanks, unless very cheap trade gets it done.

  4. JC

    I could see India going in a deal to Cleveland. They need some offense. Maybe even Fraley and a minor league prospect. Then I see a Johnny Cueto signing.

    • H.B.

      Cueto hardly pitched at all last year. He probably will retire or be on the D.L. most of next year. NO WAY

  5. Doc

    I hate to see good pitching traded away for one year rentals.

    • SultanofSwaff

      How do you define ‘good’ pitching? It sounds like most posters today are equating league average (by ERA+) and years of control with good.

  6. MBS

    Adding Beiber at $12M allows the Reds to keep adding with out getting crazy. Sign FA SP E. Rodriguez for $18M, and two $10M relivers and we’ve spent $50M on the pitching, plus the $30M something that we are already likely to spend, and we’d just be hitting last years payroll.

    Lets get crazy and add a power bat. That should get us to $100M or slightly more depending on who they get.

    or we can be patient, I mean where else are we going to go?

    • Colorado Red

      I doubt you sign E. Rodriguez for 18M.
      I think he is look 4 or 5 years at close to 100.
      Pitching market is too hot.

      I would love to have both of them on next years team, And E Rod, does have require loss of a draft picl

      • MBS

        You might be right, that’s where Spotrac had him when the offseason began. I just rechecked, and they now have him at $20.4M AAV. It’s not my money, but if he stays relatively around that figure I think it would still be a good move for the Reds. If it goes mid $20M or higher I’d target a 1 year rental. Miley, Ryu would both be good candidates, as neither will be very expensive, and both could transition to the pen if the young starters outshined them midway through the season.

      • JayTheRed

        Not the end of the world if we lose one draft pick. I think our minors is pretty well stacked at the moment.

        I too like ERod. Hope it happens. Anyone else see any free agent starters besides the Asian leagues that would be a upgrade. Do we take a flyer on Miley?

        Really wanted Sonny to come back here but I’m sure St. Lousi offered more money and they have a better reputation of producing wining teams there.

      • VaRedsFan

        Please people…stop saying Miley.
        Has anyone paid attention to what he’s done since leaving the Reds.
        His best ability is no availabilty

    • KLK

      Or better yet, go get Snell at 5/25. If you want that ace to stabilize the rotation, spend the money you have available rather than burn prospects..

  7. Mark Moore

    I remain in the camp saying we don’t trade any of our current young starters. He’s a cheaper “rental” than Glasnow with what appears to be about the same level of risk. All depends on the players headed back the opposite direction.

    • JB

      Totally agree. Trade some guys in A ball. We got this far on patience , good drafting and good trades. Don’t get inpatient now. I look at the crap we started out with at the beginning of the season last year to what they ended up with at the end. Plenty of talent coming as well.

    • Rod Andrews

      I think you’re right. We have a young staff that had the bad luck of simultaneous injuries. There’s no reason to think the same thing will happen two years in a row. If they can get Bieber for a decent deal, then fine, but only if they can extend him, and leave our young pitchers alone

    • west larry

      I agree too. Some A or AA pitcher should do it for Bieber. Even if the reds don’t make any trades or sign any free agents, I’ll still follow the team. Where else am I going to go?

  8. old-school

    I posted in another thread but this seems more pertinent to Reds adding vet SP via trades.

    I like the idea of getting a high AAV pitcher and the Guardians have a long track record of trading pitching for the future. I like Glasnow as an option too but in both Biebers case and the Rays, the devil is in the details. IMO, it makes zero sense to trade a young major leaguer ( Ashcraft/Williamson) as you are robbing Peter to pay Paul plus you lose years of a potential above average SP.

    I guess I would ask Doug or any other reds minors gurus how far away Chase Petty is from being a major league starter or if the Reds would use him in the bullpen at the MLB level anytime soon. He never pitched more than 4 innings, had some arm issues which delayed his 2023 start and is just 20. He would seem to be years away from cracking the rotation as a 25 start 150 inning a year guy. The other promising pitcher with an injury history and a lack of innings mileage is Lyon Richardson. I would think Richardson could help as a spot starter or long man out of the bullpen this year, but that’s it. Those would be the two pitching prospects I would be willing to part with if the right deal came along for a game changing SP.

    • LarkinPhillips

      Not a guru, but I would be against using Lyon or Petty in this trade. Especially Petty, considering we gave up 2 years of Sonny Gray to get him. Trading him now to get 1 year of Bieber or Glasnow makes zero sense. I would look to trade Julian Aguiar, Jose Acuna, or someone along those lines if they want a young starter. Maybe throw in Fraley, or some other 20-30 level prospect.

      • Old Big Ed

        I don’t think you can evaluate guys based on what you had to give up to get them (or where you drafted them). That they gave up two years of Gray ought to be irrelevant to what Petty’s current value is.

        Similarly, drafting a first rounder and paying him a big bonus should not affect how the Reds evaluate him. If (say) the 8th round pick is playing better, the Reds would do themselves a disservice to evaluate the two players differently based on the sunk cost of the big bonus. The Reds have Michael Trautwein and Mat Nelson as catchers from the same draft and same position, playing at the same level. Nelson got a bonus 16 times bigger than Trautwein got. The Reds need to evaluate those two catchers objectively as of today, without any bias towards the team’s opinions of them in 2021 when they were drafted.

        Having said that, I also wouldn’t give up Petty for a year of Bieber or Glasnow, both of whom are injury risks. So is Petty, and all pitchers for that matter, but Petty makes about $50k and Glasnow will make about 50 times that much this season. Take the $50k risk, not the $25mm risk.

    • MBS

      I almost asked this exact question about Petty this morning. I don’t see how he could be a viable starter on the Reds in 24. Not only are the innings per start a potential issue, but he only had 68 IP last year. He did pitch 98 the year before, but I don’t know how many innings the organization will let him go this year.

      I like Lodolo as a long reliever this year for similar reasons. Maybe if Petty kills it in AA, and AAA those two could form a piggyback duo by mid season.

      • Rod Andrews

        I think that Lodolo is going to be outstanding this year, but would be wasted as a reliever. Also, Petty isn’t that far away from pitching for the Reds.

    • Hotto4Votto

      Petty did reach AA at the end of last season. From a competition stand point we’ve seen guys jump from AA to ML with little to no stopover time in AAA. Not saying I expect Petty to make the jump. I’d expect him to start at AA next season. Hopefully with a completely healthy offseason he can start to increase the innings limits. Abbott went from 118 IP to 163 IP going from AA to the ML. Obviously Petty is still pretty far behind even where Abbott was with only 68 IP last season. But say he can increase that to 100+ IP in 2024, then getting to 150 in 2025 isn’t out of the question. He’s been so good when he’s been on the mound, I’d hate to exchange that for a rental, especially when he may be able to contribute in a little more than a year’s time.

  9. LarkinPhillips

    I like a trade for Bieber, assuming we don’t give up anything more than #20 or lower prospect and maybe Fraley or something along those lines. Sending India over there for Bieber straight up doesn’t make sense to me and sending any of our young arms over for a one year gamble is crazy in my opinion.

    However, assuming the trade price is reasonable, adding Bieber gives the Reds a quality starter to take some pressure off each of the young guns for 2024. Best case he returns to CY young form and we get a draft pick when he leaves with a QO extended to him. Worst case, he pitches half a season like the last two at major league level and give Phillips, Richardson, etc. time to develop in AAA before being called up if Williamson, Abbott, Hunter, Ashcraft, or Lodolo struggle.

    Side note: I like Lodolo or Williamson in the bullpen to start the year if we add a quality starter or two. Let them pitch 2-3 innings at a time every 3-4 days and keep them somewhat stretched out while hopefully staying healthy for the whole year.

    • JB

      I love everything about this. For once in forever the Reds have a boatload of pitching. Now is not the time to trade it away for a rental. Trade a A ball guy and Fraley. Nothing against Fraley but him and Benson are lefty specialists that can’t hit lefties. I like both of them but in my opinion two is to many. One has to go.

    • JB

      Not sure where my comment went to but I’ll just say I love everything about this . Can’t agree more.

    • BK

      All good points. Alternatively, with Lodolo or Williamson, the Reds could deepen the bullpen and keep on of them in AAA if we make it through ST healthy–when is the last time we didn’t start the year with a SP in the IL?

      • LarkinPhillips

        I think failing to plan for injuries in today’s game is unacceptable. You need to plan for a minimum of 2 position players and 3-4 pitchers to miss significant time each year. That’s why I don’t think we trade India or any of the young starters. Trade from our “deep farm system.”

      • BK

        Couldn’t agree more. If India is traded, it just means another position player needs to be acquired. Perhaps that makes sense if India helps fetch a pitcher and players like Justin Turner or Adam Duvall are available on the FA market.

    • MBS

      On the “side note” I also think that Lodolo in the pen makes all the sense in the world. I’d love to see him being used as a long this year. Try to get his innings back up to a point where he could compete for a rotation spot in 25.

      If we added a SP1, and SP2 Williamson could also make sense if we are lucky enough to have a healthy rotation.

      • KLK

        I couldn’t agree more, and if Bell doesn’t have to use him in long relief you have an excellent LH reliever that can close from the left side as well. It would be a matter of who do they want to face… Diaz or Lodolo..

    • Rod Andrews

      Lodolo may well be the best starter on the team, and will prove it in ’24. Williamson is more likely a starter as well . He came around strong last year when he got comfortable.

  10. SultanofSwaff

    Quite interesting how the Cubs and Reds are competing for the same talent….that never happens. To that end, I hope the Reds kick the tires on ground ball machine Marcus Stroman. He’ll go off the board once the bigger names set the market price.

    I don’t quite get the Ashcraft love here today. While I admire his competitive nature, his ERA+ is 96 with a below average and declining strikeout rate (17%) along with a declining ground ball rate (47%). Not a recipe for success at GABP. So, aside from being controllable and capable of eating innings, it’s difficult to envision him turning a corner and becoming anything more than a back of the rotation pitcher. Viewed thru that lens, the Reds have multiple options whom I’d argue have much higher ceilings (esp. Phillips 159K/105IP, or Richardson 100k/70IP). More to the point, assuming the Reds acquire a SP, Ashcraft simply doesn’t have the numbers to bump anyone from the rotation. If you relegate him to the bullpen or demote him what does that do to his value? I’m not hoping they trade him, but if he can facilitate an upgrade I’m all for it.

    • BK

      First, I think it’s hard to do trend analysis on a pitcher in his first full season in the majors. Second, it came completely off the rails for Ashcraft in May and June … and then he was dominant. So, whatever his problem was in May and June was corrected. Even with two really poor months and missing almost a full month on the IL, he was earned 2.4 bWAR. If Ashcraft is consistent he’s easily a #2 starter in the majors. I think its worth holding onto him and finding out if he can deliver consistency.

      • SR

        1000% Agree BK. He had 15 quality starts in 2023. There were whispers of off field personal matters too as I recall. That may also have influenced his early summer swoon. His season stats also took a hit when he went on the reservation for those 8 starts. His era was below three for the second half after 6/30.

      • SultanofSwaff

        Don’t do trend analysis over a season and a half but then cherry pick his best 2 months?

      • BK

        I’m pointing out that Ashcraft’s 2023 performance was quite uneven. It started strong and ended strong. Also, the two months of suboptimal performance didn’t prevent him from having a productive season and likely skew comparisons from his first to second season. It’s not cherry-picking to point out two obvious outliers in a data set of six approximately equal parts. Sorry, I just don’t have the time to track the results outside of the readily available year-over-year comps you cited. I’m not trying to be obnoxious, but it just doesn’t work to compare two data points and declare a trend.

        IMHO, it would be a terrible mistake to trade Ashcraft, given how well he bounced back.

      • Dewey Roberts

        Ashcraft said he was telegraphing his pitches early in the season and then corrected it.

      • VaRedsFan

        Anyone not watching Ashcraft pitch after his mid season problem, just wasn’t paying attention. (ie…watching games)

    • Rod Andrews

      Ashcraft will be better than Stroman, plus with a better attitude.

    • KLK

      Ash is a pitch to contact pitcher, that was proven last year, and there’s a certain trust factor with this guy that stat guys can’t measure. He’s not unlike Indy in that respect. When he came back from the IL last season when Greene and Lodolo were both out, he and Abbott held it down for this team, numbers aren’t everything.. you can’t measure guts.

  11. RedsGettingBetter

    Both pitchers involve a high risk. So from a logical and financial point of view since Glasnow is the double price of Bieber it seems easy to choose Bieber. But from the other point of view of the things, Glasnow looks like a better pitcher to fit the Reds rotation if he stay healthy. However, I think it is more likely none of them will have a deal with the Reds…

  12. Michael B. Green

    I would get about 12 independent doctors reviewing Bieber’s and Glasnow’s physicals. We will only have them for 2024 and cannot afford any nonsense.

    • redfanorbust

      Agreed about the doctors however if they pass physicals then only trade for one of them IF they sign an extension. No way I give back a young SP with years of control for a one year rental.

  13. G in Fla

    Well, we need a #1 and a #3 in our rotation. Of course everything depends on what we would have to send in return and if we are willing and/or able to extend them past 2024.
    Elite Pitchers are so fragile these days that no matter who you get, it’s a huge gamble.
    As much as I like Glasnow, he seems like an overpay but Bieber is still a pretty good pitcher and a good fit for the money as long as we can still add a true #1 thru free agent. I dont know if it’s realistically possible to trade for both.
    Unfortunately Greene and Lodolo are both such wildcards that I just combined them to give us a rotational #2.

    • Colorado Red

      I would prefer Cease, he has 2 years of control.
      Will cost a lot more in prospect capital, but he is more durable.

  14. TR

    Pitching is tough and it is a gamble. But, if injuries can be kept at bay, it is what wins titles.

  15. Jason Franklin

    I hate gambling away talent on either pitcher. Their injury histories will not suddenly vanish and without surgeries to correct any underlying issues, why would they? This is one time when the Reds need to spend actual large amounts of cash on pitchers with a recent run of good health. I know, an injury can happen to anyone, but Bieber or Glasnow have increased chances of breaking down.

  16. Mike

    Bieber’s stats are a runaway train toward current Syndegaard ones. Hard pass

    • Michael E

      yep, or Corey Kluber, who rapidly imploded into a Ace that couldn’t get anyone out. Bieber is half-way there and 2024 will be over 4.00 ERA and never below 4.5 ERA after that.

  17. Harry Stoner

    I’m very interested in seeing how these rumors unfold.

    Krall the Seller vs Krall the Buyer.

    He’s made his positive cred with the former, not yet the latter.

    Trading young controllable pitching on an upward trajectory for one year of an oft-injured pitcher (at $25M) sounds nuts to me.

    Or desperate.

    Buying / trading under pressure yields the Minors and Phams

    Krall’s cred also comes from unloading salaries, not taking on someone else’s salary dump.

    It took the Asterisks a few seasons to build back up from their 100 loss catastrophes.

    Patience, grasshoppers.

  18. jmb

    Reds should trade for Glasnow and take on Margot’s salary to lower the trade price. A couple of arms, guys like Richardson, Aguilar, Acuna, Stoudt, and Legumina, could go to the Rays. The good thing about trading for Glasnow is that you’ll get a draft pick when he walks. Reds need Bieber ALSO, not in place of Glasnow. A couple of the above mentioned arms should land him too. Cease would cost too much–they’d probably want Petty. And why trade 2 years of Gray for 2 years later on of Cease?

    • jmb

      But I’d like to see the Reds take a chance on the Mariners’ Hitchcock too. He’s more of a long shot, but he’d give them depth and should not cost much in a trade. Lodolo and Greene should both be moved to the pen.

    • Mark

      Basically replicated you post jmb as I had not read it before my diatribe.

  19. Michael E

    1 year deal for Bieber, maybe. He’s been trending downward and has gone from a Cy Young able SP to a “crafty” SP, which is another word for mediocre stuff, but still locates pitches fairly well. Do NOT overpay for a so-so SP3 type (he WAS SP1, but no longer). It’d be nice if he were in rotation and could give us 180 innings, but the recent arm issues are very concerning on top of downtrend in “stuff”.

    I’d rather have Glasnow if their is a choice.

    I say punt all that and sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto. If that was the only off-season acquisition, it would be a great off-season and no prospects lost.

    Maybe trade India for a multi-year controlled good bullpen arm.

  20. JPB

    I like the idea of Glasnow more because he has not regressed in any way. He has issues with injuries but when he is in there he is a stud. Especially if we can get him for maybe Richardson and a lower level prospect. Richardson has his own issues and he is yet to be great at any level. If we could get even 12 additional wins from Glasnow it could put us over the top and that is all we need. Paying extra money is much better than giving away better talent.

  21. Michael E

    Bieber K/9

    2019 — 10.9
    2020 — 14.2
    2021 — 12.5
    2022 — 8.9
    2023 — 7.5
    2024? — 6.6?
    2025? — ugly

    • Michael E

      Pass…unless very cheap trade of some #16 prospect and fairly cheap 1 year extension. He should ONLY be viewed as a possible non-horrible innings-eater (also not-good innings-eater).

    • Redsvol

      k per 9 innings is a very deceiving stat. Pitchers can survive in the MLB with Bieber’s 2023 k/9 of 7.5. For comparison, Ashcraft was at 6.8, Williamson was at 7.5 and Lively’s was 8.0.

      Keeping the ball on the ground or in the park is the important part. Can he keep the homers down and induce ground balls? If he can, then sign me up. If he can’t, then he is no better than what we have and we need to keep looking.

      We need a couple veteran starters who can show the youngsters that pitching is not just throwing the ball hard. Jordan Montgomery would be an excellent example but probably going to get a $200M contract which is too risky for pitching.

      • Michael E

        okay, I can see your points, but there is nothing deceiving about a pitcher that used to mow hitters down, that now has to pitch to contact with below average velocity. He’s a crafty pitcher, sure, but without abilit to put a hitter away, he isn’t worth much in a trade or salary. This is a lesser Bronson Arroyo, who was never confused with Ace or SP1.

        Bieber of five years ago was a stud. Bieber now is just an average pitcher that is also declining year by year.

      • Old Big Ed

        Michael Wacha fits that bill perfectly. Needs to throw a few more innings than in the last 2 seasons, but has had an OPS+ of 127 each of the last two seasons while going 25-6.

      • BK

        I agree with OBE … Wacha is on the wish list I sent to Santa for the Reds.

    • Beedeegee

      K’s are great. No doubt. But K/inning is for stats resume’ more than wise field baseball. You know, grounder-flyout pitching relates closer to 27 pitch game vs an 81 strikes game.
      A team with a flamethrower often fails when a rubber armed high velocity pitcher, throws a hitter’s roundhouse homer. While a 95mph to knuckle, curve pitcher, can get 3 outs using the entire team. That energy can be carried into the dugout.

  22. JB WV

    Hmm…In 2022, Bieber pitched 200 innings, had an era of 2.88 and won a gold glove. He’s 28 years old, due to make 12 mil in 2024.
    Sonny Gray is 34. He just signed a three year deal with the cards at 25 mil per guaranteed. He hasn’t pitched 200 innings in a season since 2015. When he left the Reds it looked like his career was fading.
    If Krall can get Bieber without giving up top prospects it’s worth a shot. If the medicals check out do it. He could revive his dominance and the Reds catch the old lightning in a bottle.
    I’m confused about some of the comments about Greene and Lodolo. Lodolo’s injury has nothing to do with his arm. He should be fine and is arguably our most talented starter. Yes Greene needs to develop his change up but is 23 years old. Young guys evolve.

    • Mark Moore

      Never let facts get in the way of a spirited discussion on a fan forum … 🙂

    • Mark

      Agree Lodolo’s injury has nothing to do with his arm. Yet, when you miss significant time in 2022 and most of the 2023 season the type of injury suffered is not as relevant and leg injuries can lead to arm problems. I am pulling for him and he is still a young man probably trying to adjust to his large frame. Same with Greene

  23. redfanorbust

    If rumors are true then Reds, Cubs, or whoever must have checked things out and have confidence in each players health. Given that, if the trading team wants a MLB ready SP back then I only make that trade if said player signs an extension. No way trading for a one year rental for a young multi year controllable SP.

  24. Mark

    Rays trying to dump expensive salaries so they will probably accept less than Glasnow’s value in return. Would not include Williamson, Phillips, or Petty as we will probably need 1, 2, or all 3 next season. Maybe a couple A ball pitchers who have shown promise and are controllable for several years. I am concerned that Greene and Lodolo may be more modern versions of the Cubs Kerry Wood and Mark Pryor. Extremely talented yet injury prone. Hopefully they will be able to get through an entire season in 2024. Get Glashow for this season and depending on his performance try to extend him or let him go (if Greene and Lodolo realize their potential) and get a draft pick. If the young guys progress, may not need him in ‘25. Margot would fill the need for a right hand batter for the outfield rotation. Again a 1 year guy but he fills a need for next season.

    • Old Big Ed

      The Rays probably aren’t trying to dump salary with Glasnow, so much as they are trying to assess what they can get for him. If they get a sufficiently juicy proposal, they will trade him; if not, they will keep him.

      He has an injury history, and if he gets hurt again, then he won’t merit a qualifying offer. With an injury, the Rays would not only lose the $25 million that they will have to pay him, but also the extra early draft pick.

      I therefore believe that they are not dumping salary so much as dumping risk.

  25. JohnnySofa

    Most of the proposals on this board are dead-end dreams. Let’s trade for Glasnow or Bieber, but don’t give up India. Or Ashcraft. Or Williamson. Or a top-10 prospect. Or a top-20 prospect. If Krall takes that approach, he’ll hear dial tones. You gotta give to get, especially when you wanna get a proven starting pitcher (injuries included).

  26. Eddiek957

    I like Yamamoto. Nothing on the books time to be bold and not reactionary

    • Jason Franklin

      Sounds like he may cost more then 200 million in guaranteed money. I don’t think the Reds will ever do that sort of contract again unless they get another Votto in the system.

    • BK

      @Eddie, I agree. If the Reds are going to go big, he’s the right target. That said, there is a lot of competition for Yamamoto’s services. But he’s exactly what the team needs and his age/productivity should align well with the rest of the team.

    • west larry

      I want Yamamoto too, but on mlbtv they were saying he wants to pitch in a large market like ny or la, Besides, I can’t see the reds committing to such a large and long contract.

      • BK

        His agent has publicly stated he has no geographical preferences, so I’m not sure the MLB.tv reporters have a source as much as they are speculating.

        If I were a young stud free agent pitcher, I would prefer to play for the Orioles, Reds, and D-backs as they have the best young talent in MLB and all have payroll flexibility to augment their rosters over time.

  27. Steve

    I sure hope the Reds don’t screw this up and give up to much for Bieber or some other similar player. I would much rather see us go to a six man starting rotation like some other clubs have….Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Abbott, Philips, Williamson. That’s a perfect “lefty-righty” rotation. Put the money into the bullpen and maybe work on some long-term deals with our key players. Build something special that can be good for the next 7-10 years. Please Reds….don’t screw this up.

  28. MBS

    I think there is a misinterpretation about why some have suggested that Lodolo should go to the pen. I thought going into 2023 Lodolo would be the Reds #1 pitcher.

    2017 78.2 college
    2018 77 IP college
    2019 121.1 IP college/minors
    2020 COVID
    2021 50.2 IP minors
    2022 116 IP combined
    2023 41.2 IP combined

    He needs to build up his innings, there is zero chance he will make 160 IP in 24, and trying to do so will likely result in him returning to the IL. As a long man, swingman, or piggybacker maybe they could get him up to 130 innings this year, and in a position to carry a full starters role in 25.

    • BK

      You make a great point. My question is how many innings has he thrown outside of pro competition this year? I’m suggesting he may not be as far behind as the public-facing stats appear … but if he is, your suggestion is one the Reds are likely considering.

    • Redsvol

      Could make the same case for Tyler Glasnow. He has never put in more than 120 innings / with this high coming last year.

      Keep lodolo a starter until it’s clear he can’t. He loses big value – and big earning potential – if he moves to bullpen. It’s not a problem to have too many starters. It can breed competition which makes team better.

      • MBS

        I never advocated for Glasnow, but he threw 120 last year, so 160 isn’t a stretch if he stays healthy. More importantly I’m not anti Lodolo starting. If they think he can go a whole season then that would be great.

        I really don’t care about “He loses big value – and big earning potential”. Whatever the team needs to win is all I care about. Every pitcher wants to stick as a starter, most can’t because of health, command, pitch mix, etc…

  29. Mike

    All I’m saying is if the Reds would have offered Sonny Gray $90M for 3 years ($30M a year in place of Votto’s $25M/yr) he would have taken it and we would make the playoffs. May be we will without him, but I’m sure we would have with him. The fact he went to our archrival Cardinals makes our not ponying up to get him — for us and to keep him off the Cards roster — even more devastating to us. Anyone else will either be more expensive or of less abilities. Big mistake we made. Cheap, cheap, cheap. Don’t they know a winning team sells more tickets, brings in more parking, media and concession revenue, which pays for more players. Come on Reds, we have the nucleus for the new Big Red Machine. Man up!

    • Greenfield Red

      SG is 34 years old and you want to give him 3/90? There are better options out there, and I am cetain they will get at least 1 of them

  30. Michael B. Green

    Whomever (?) made the comment about taking on Margot with Glasnow is on to something. I wonder what it would cost. TB fleeces everyone (tip of the cap to them).

    With Franco’s future uncertain, I could see both of Barrero and either Arroyo or Cabrera in the deal. I could also see either Collier or Stewart. Guessing someone like Floyd too. We’d probably make them take a pitcher that is on the 40MR too – let’s say Richardson or Stoudt.

    Perhaps we get a lower level prospect in return too?

    So, Glasnow, Margot and PTBNL for Barrero, Cabrera, Stewart, Floyd and Stoudt. That’s quite a bit and probably an overpay, but I assume this process that the teams will take on constructing a large deal.

    • Old Big Ed

      I hope that they don’t even consider giving up Edwin Arroyo for one season of Glasnow. It might be different if Glasnow had a history of pitching more than 125 innings, but he doesn’t. If Tampa really believed in his health, they wouldn’t be trying to trade him. If $25 mm is reasonable for the Reds, then it is reasonable for the Rays, too.

      Frankly, giving up Cabrera, Stewart and Floyd and 2 others for Glasnow sounds like the Vikings trading 5 guys to the Cowboys for Herschel Walker. You could get Juan Soto for that.

      I am also not sure that Floyd (or Lowder) are even eligible to be traded right now.

      • Tar Heel Red

        OBE< they are not…yet. Can't trade a new draftee within six months of the date they were drafted by rule (used to be one year, but the new CBA changed the time restriction).

        Tampa's top two prospects are shortstops, one of which has major league experience already, so not sure they would want another. If the Rays are serious about trading Glasnow I wouldn't offer any more than Lyon Richardson and Jay Allen/Austin Hendrick.

    • BK

      I could see Margot fitting with the Reds. His contract has negative value in my view and would reduce the return going back to the Rays. He’s a good defensive corner outfielder who can play CF. The one-year commitment wouldn’t alter any long-term plans either.

      Perhaps a package of India, Barerro, Acuna, and Maxwell for Glasnow and Margot would work for both sides.

  31. Oldtimer

    What would Jose Rijo 1988 to 1985 make?

    What would Jim Maloney 1962 to 1969 make?

    What would Tom Seaver, even 1977 to 1981, make?

    • west larry

      Not all of these pitchers are still alive. If all three of these pitchers were 27 y o today, how much money would they make? 10 years for 200 or 300 million for ten years? Times have changed. The fact that they made hundreds of thousands (or tens of thousands per year) has nothing to do with the cost of pitching today.

      • Oldtimer

        Any of the three are better than most pitchers today. Seaver is the best RH pitcher of my lifetime (born 1951) and certainly better than any pitcher today.

        He pitched almost 240 innings (each year) as 39 and 40 year old with CWS.

        He might get $500 M for 10 years.

  32. WVRedsFan

    Have a six man rotation with Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft, Abbot, Philips and Williamson. Thats the perfect Lefty – Righty situation. Put the money into the bullpen instead.

    • Melvin

      Not a bad idea. Just make sure some of those bullpen additions can start if need be.

  33. Mike Wasserman

    Good morning Greenfield Red. My short answer is Yes I would have given Sonny 3 yrs/$90M. There are typical 34 year olds and there ae exceptional 34 year olds. Sonny is the latter. Not only is he fanatical abut taking care of his body — allowing him to pitch in all 32 starts (which I would imagine 90% of SPs did not do in 2023), Sonny also posted a 2.79 ERA (!) 2nd in the AL and K’d 183 in 184 innings. Just a few of his remarkable stats and reasons why he came in 2nd in the 2023 Cy Young award voting. Not signing the Cy Young runner up — who despite his age, beat out 150 other American League SPs for that title — was a mistake. Hopefully Bieber will be almost as good and cost us less. Sonny played for us before and his work ethic and knowledge would have provided veteran leadership in the clubhouse for our young team. I wonder how much more than the Card’s offer it would have taken to sign the man who came in 2nd in the Cy Young? Of course I often ask myself how much more it would have taken to keep the reigning MVP? I miss you Frank Robinson

    • Old Big Ed

      I love Sonny Gray, and would have liked to see him back, but he does have some durability questions. He only made 24 starts in 2022, and averaged less than 5 IP/start.

      He had an excellent 2023, but 13 of his starts were against the AL Central. Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland and KC were all bad last year, accounting for 4 of the worst 6 MLB teams in OPS. The Giants and the A’s, who were last, were the other 2. (El Nino year in the Bay Area, I suppose.)

    • BK

      Sonny Gray would have been a decent acquisition, but I prefer others. As others have pointed out, age and durability are concerns. Frankly, the Cards were willing to pay top dollar to lock up an aging rotation early in free agency. They likely need to add another starter to draw even with the Reds starting pitching, which is the Red’s biggest weakness.

  34. RedBB

    I would give up Stoudt, Lyon or Spiers for a year of Bieber or Glasnow. Would probably need to add something to get Bieber though. I might throw in Jay Allen as well for Bieber and something lesser coming back.

  35. Dan

    Let’s not have another Eric Milton on our hands. We got great ROI…just kidding. Stick to your farm system and the playbook from last year. Where did 82 of our wins come from in 2023? Middle innings to situational pitchers are the need. Develop them.

  36. Mike Wasserman

    I’ll back off my extreme dislike of the way we haven’t spent $’s in the past as long as we sign Bieber or better to address our biggest need: starting pitching. If we had signed Sonny, I’d be happy. If we sign Bieber I’d be happy. I’m a 65 year old fan who went back and forth to the Big Red Machine WS appearances in the 70’s, who invited Johnny Bench to my wedding and met Ken Griffey Jr. in person the night he played his first game (April 1989), and have the game worn 1919 replica (vs. the Black Sox) jersey Joey wore in the year the Reds were honoring past uniform designs, and who acquired a 6’ tall “nodder” aka bobble head) from a Red’s charity and have it in my foyer.

    • BK

      I think a lot of bonded with the Reds during the BRM era. Sounds like you have some neat mementos.

    • Votto4life

      Mike, I am a couple of years younger than you, but we both have been blessed to have rooted for the BRM. Like you, I have been disappointed how tight fisted the current regime has been. But buddy, we had the privilege of following the greatest team in baseball history.

      Having said that, I must say, I really admire some of the younger fans here. They don’t have the great memories that you and I have. Some of them, have never seen the Reds in the World Series. To be loyal to a team that hasn’t won in such a long time, yes sir, that is impressive.

  37. Votto4life

    I would like to see the Reds make an effort to acquire both Bieber AND Glasnow. That would insulate them a good degree from injuries. It would only commit the Reds for one year. Of course, it’s probably gonna cost some talent. But the Reds are going to have to give up something to get something. Like many, I am tired of waiting for “next year”.

    If the Reds really want to “sell the future”, then fine, lock up Elly, CES, Marte etc.

  38. Scott H. Burns

    Much better pitchers than these two. Prefer Mariners Gilbert over either of them.

  39. WVRedsFan

    I think there is a decent chance the Reds are going this direction. Especially with the Martinez signing. Like you said, we need a few bullpen guys that can “spot start” if need be. Martinez fits the bill.

  40. Stan

    How many innings can Lodolo give us next year?I really like the idea of having Lodolo and Greene pitching as a duo .Greene goes 5 Lodolo goes 3 and then your closer finishes game.I believe the money given to Martinez means he will be a starter unless he flames out at spring training.